Author Archives: lubon

Cost supports the overall rise of domestic propylene glycol market this week (2.06-2.10)

According to the monitoring data of the Business News Agency, as of February 10, 2023, the reference market price of domestic industrial propylene glycol was 8333 yuan/ton. Compared with February 5 (the reference price of propylene glycol was 8066 yuan/ton), the price increased by 267 yuan/ton, or 3.31%.

 

ferric sulfate (Poly ferric sulphate)

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of the business agency that this week (2.06-2.10), the domestic propylene glycol market overall showed an upward trend. At the beginning of the week, the cost support for propylene glycol from the rising market of raw material propylene oxide continued to strengthen, and the market center of propylene glycol continued to strengthen, the stock on the market was controllable, and some manufacturers limited shipment. As of February 10, the domestic propylene glycol market price was around 8200-8500 yuan/ton, and the price was increased by about 200-400 yuan/ton compared with the beginning of the week.

Bacillus thuringiensis

 

Future trend analysis

 

At present, the intra-field trading atmosphere of propylene glycol is mild, and the downstream demand is steadily released. Supported by the cost side, the propylene glycol industry is in a good mood. The propylene glycol statistician of the business agency believes that in the short term, the domestic propylene glycol market is mainly stable, moderate and strong, and more attention should be paid to the changes in the supply and demand information.

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The supply and demand sides carefully followed up, and the price of magnesium rose steadily (1.30-2.3)

Market analysis of this week

 

povidone Iodine

According to the monitoring of Business News Agency, the average price in the domestic market was 22000 yuan/ton as of March, up 1.23% from last week. At the beginning of the week, the price of magnesium rose slightly by 200 yuan/ton, and then stabilized.

 

Supply and demand

The magnesium plant was shut down for maintenance before and after the holiday. After the holiday, the price of the factory was firm. The downstream customers were still waiting and waiting. The overall demand was poor. Some customers mainly digested the temporary inventory.

 

Raw materials

 

The average market price of ferrosilicon in Ningxia is around 7900-8100 yuan/ton. After the Spring Festival, the futures market price dropped sharply, driving the spot market price to lower. Ferrosilicon manufacturers in Ningxia have resumed production in succession, while production in other regions is relatively stable, with the national operating rate (capacity utilization rate) of 45.21% as of February 2; The average daily output is 17058 tons. National ferrosilicon production (weekly supply): 119400 tons.

Azodicarbonamide (AC foaming Agent)

 

The price of blue charcoal in Fugu market was stable. All coal mines have not yet resumed work and production, and the upstream and downstream of the blue charcoal enterprises have a wait-and-see attitude, and the market is strongly bearish about coal prices.

 

Aftermarket forecast

 

In general, the market advocates a cautious wait-and-see atmosphere, and the manufacturers’ quotation sentiment is strong, but the small drop in raw material prices and the poor follow-up of downstream demand have led to the pressure on magnesium ingot prices. Considering the rigid demand of some enterprises entering the market after the Lantern Festival, it is expected that the short-term magnesium ingot prices will remain stable.

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Trichloromethane market rose this week

Trichloromethane rose this week (1.30-2.6). According to the data of Business News Agency, the price of trichloromethane bulk water in Shandong was 2500 yuan/ton as of February 6, up 4.17% from 2400 yuan/ton last Monday, and the weekly low was 2375 yuan/ton. A small number of inquiries were started in the downstream refrigerant market of chloroform after the holiday, and inquiries in pharmaceutical, chemical and other industries increased slightly. The inventory of enterprises is not large, the willingness to stand up is higher, the ex-factory price of trichloromethane is increased, and the focus of the mainstream offer in the trichloromethane market is higher.

Azodicarbonamide (AC foaming Agent)

 

This week (1.30~2.6), the price of raw material methanol decreased slightly, and the cost of chloroform decreased slightly, but still supported. According to the business news agency, the spot price of methanol was 2702 yuan/ton as of February 6, down 2.38% from 2768 yuan/ton on January 30.

 

The downstream refrigerant market slightly rose, with a small amount of inquiries for chloroform; Inquiries from downstream pharmaceutical, chemical and other industries increased slightly, which supported trichloromethane slightly.

 

According to the methane chloride data analyst of the Business News Agency, although the demand for trichloromethane is slightly weak at present, the inventory of enterprises is not large, and the refrigerant peak season is coming soon. It is expected that the market of trichloromethane will rise steadily in the short term.

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The domestic market price of maleic anhydride rose sharply at the end of January

1、 Price trend

 

Azodicarbonamide (AC foaming Agent)

Business agency: the domestic market price of maleic anhydride rose sharply at the end of January

 

According to the data of Business News Agency, the average quoted price of maleic anhydride as of January 31 was 7440.00 yuan/ton (tax included), up 7.44% from 6925.00 yuan/ton on January 1.

 

The commodity index of maleic anhydride on January 31 was 70.09, which was the same as yesterday, down 57.89% from the highest point of 166.43 points (2021-12-15) in the cycle, and up 36.95% from the lowest point of 51.18 points on April 14, 2020. (Note: the period refers to September 1, 2011 to now)

 

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

 

In January, the domestic phenylmaleic anhydride market continued to shut down. At the beginning of the month, due to the impact of logistics, the available supply of maleic anhydride is limited, and downstream resins have entered the shutdown period in succession. The procurement is prudent and based on demand. After the holiday, the main factories pushed up positively, the downstream demand recovered generally, and the willingness to enter the market was low. As of the 31st, the solid anhydride in Shandong was about 7600 yuan/ton, and that in Jiangsu was about 7500 yuan/ton. There was no new price outflow from Shanxi and Hebei, and that in South China was about 7800 yuan/ton.

 

In January, the international crude oil price fluctuated. On the one hand, the number of oil and natural gas rigs of American energy companies decreased by 8, the largest monthly decline since July 2020, and also the first two consecutive months since July 2020. US crude oil supply has declined, supporting international oil prices. On the other hand, the economic recovery in the Asian region, China’s crude oil import volume increased significantly, and the positive demand recovery supported the rise of international oil prices. However, the inflation level of western developed economies is high, and it is difficult to tighten monetary policy or withdraw in the short term, which will harm the global economy and undermine the international crude oil price.

 

ferric sulfate (Poly ferric sulphate)

In January, the hydrogenation benzene market was dominated by the ex-factory price in North China at 6566.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 7100 yuan/ton at the end of the month, with a monthly increase of 8.12%. At present, the support for pure benzene fundamentals is moderate, while crude oil and styrene tend to be strong, which has strong support for the pure benzene market. After the holiday, there is still a certain demand for procurement in the market, and it is expected that the overall trend of the industrial chain will be stable, medium and strong under the boost of fundamentals.

 

3、 Aftermarket forecast

 

The analysts of maleic anhydride products of the Business Club believe that the domestic maleic anhydride market in January was mainly sorted before the holiday, and rose sharply after the holiday. At present, the benzene oxidation process in the domestic maleic anhydride market is seriously deficient, the factory is shut down for maintenance, and the market circulation of goods is small; After the holiday, the main factories pushed up positively, the downstream demand recovered generally, and the willingness to enter the market was low. It is expected that the maleic anhydride market will be sorted out in the near future.

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In January, the melamine market was stabilized and sorted out

According to the monitoring sample data of the Business News Agency, the average price of melamine enterprises was 8233.33 yuan/ton as of January 30, which was the same as that of January 1.

Melamine

 

In January, the melamine market was mainly stable, and it was sorted and operated. In the first ten days, the market price of raw material urea rose slightly, the cost support increased, the operating rate of melamine market declined, and the export support made the enterprises have a low mentality, but the performance of domestic downstream demand was poor, the market trading atmosphere was stagnant, and the price fluctuated steadily. In the middle of the year, there is some support for the cost. Some equipment maintenance and export orders are acceptable, but the domestic downstream stock mentality is general. The Spring Festival holiday is approaching, and the market is running slowly and steadily. After the holiday, the price of raw material urea is high, the cost support is strong, the industry operating rate is low, and the price of melamine is rising steadily, but the actual performance of the demand side is general, and the market wait-and-see atmosphere is strong.

 

For upstream urea, the domestic urea market rose on January 30. According to the monitoring data of Business News Agency, the reference price of urea was 2746.00 on January 27, up 1.78% from January 1 (2698.00).

 

Melamine analysts from the Business Agency believe that at present, the price of raw material urea is rising, the cost support is rising, the orders to be issued by enterprises are still acceptable, and the downstream demand is gradually recovering. It is expected that in the short term, the melamine market will be stable and wait and see, and more attention should be paid to the guidance of market news.

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Downstream lead price declined in off-season (1.6-1.13)

This week, the lead market (1.6-1.13) went down in shock. The average price of the domestic market was 15560 yuan/ton at the end of last week and 15215 yuan/ton at the end of this week, down 2.22%.

 

ferric sulfate (Poly ferric sulphate)

The commodity price K-bar chart uses the concept of price trend K-line to reflect the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments according to the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates: rising; Green means: down; The height of the K column indicates the range of rise and fall. Since the market entered September, the expectation of downstream battery enterprises in the peak season has increased, driving the price of primary lead to rise, and the price continues to weaken after the end of the peak season.

 

In the futures market, this week’s lead price was mainly down, with an operating range of 2120-2310 US dollars/ton and a weekly decline of about 1%. This week, the market mentality was dragged down by the macro impact, and prices continued to decline. The US Federal Reserve’s non-agricultural data report was quite different from the market expectation, which triggered the market’s risk aversion sentiment, and the lead price fell from a high level. Shanghai lead fell continuously on Friday, with a weekly decline of about 2.3%.

 

The spot market is mainly down this week. As the holiday season approaches, the market volume is relatively light, and the downstream demand is gradually falling, and the market holiday atmosphere is relatively strong. Basically, lead has not changed much and remains in the off-season market. On the supply side, the operating rate of primary lead enterprises has declined due to the holiday. In terms of downstream demand, after the weather turned cold, battery manufacturers entered the seasonal off-season. As the domestic market approached the Spring Festival holiday, battery companies gradually began to enter the holiday. The operating rate declined significantly and the demand for lead ingots declined. The market price continued to decline this week, the domestic inventory was in the accumulation stage, and the market trading was cold. In general, the lead ingot market has entered a seasonal off-season, with weak supply and demand in the lead market. The short-term trend continues to follow the macro factors, and there is still some room for decline in the long term.

 

London Metal Exchange (LME) lead inventory 21550 tons on January 13, 2022

 

The non-ferrous index stood at 1204 points on January 14, unchanged from yesterday, down 21.72% from the highest point of 1538 points in the cycle (2021-10-18), and up 98.35% from the lowest point of 607 points on November 24, 2015. (Note: the period refers to 2011-12-01 to now).

 

According to the price monitoring of the Business Agency, in the list of commodity prices rising and falling in the second week of 2023 (1.9-1.13), there were 9 commodities in the non-ferrous sector that rose on a month-on-month basis, including 1 commodity that rose more than 5%, accounting for 4.3% of the monitored commodities in this sector; The top three commodities were tin (7.06%), copper (3.72%) and aluminum (3.41%). There were seven commodities that fell on a month-on-month basis, with cobalt (- 2.50%), dysprosium oxide (- 1.80%) and lead (- 1.68%) among the top three products. The average rise and fall of this week was 0.39%.

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Propylene market rose steadily (1.9-1.13)

1、 Price trend

 

Benzalkonium chloride

According to the data monitoring of the Business News Agency, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market rose steadily this week, and the refinery tentatively pushed it up. The average price of the Shandong market at the beginning of the week was 7246 yuan/ton, and the average price at the weekend was 7330 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 1.16% and a year-on-year decrease of 6.51%.

 

As of January 13, the mainstream prices of propylene in domestic regions are as follows:

 

Region/ January 13th

Shandong region/ 7300-7400 yuan/ton

Northeast China/ 6900-7000 yuan/ton

East China/ 6900-7200 yuan/ton

2、 Analysis and comment

 

According to the monitoring of the data of the Business News Agency, the propylene market in Shandong rose steadily this week. The downstream stock was prepared before the festival, and there was a wave of purchase peaks. The transaction atmosphere improved. The upstream stock was smooth, the inventory was effectively removed, and the price was tentatively pushed up. At the same time, cost support increased, further boosting market prices.

 

Upstream: The recent cost performance has been strong, especially for crude oil and propane. The price of propane has risen continuously since January. As of January 13, the average price of propane in Shandong market has risen to 5950 yuan/ton, up 17.07% from the beginning of the month. The crude oil price continued to rise in the week. As of the close on January 12, the WTI rose 0.98 to $78.39/barrel in February 2023, up 1.26%; In March 2023, Brent rose 1.36 to US $84.03/barrel, up 1.64%. Under the forced support of the cost side, the propene inflation power increased.

ferric sulfate (Poly ferric sulphate)

 

Downstream: The price of some downstream products rose slightly under the boost of the downstream pre-season stock. Polypropylene market is relatively stable, but the market is facing the Spring Festival holiday in the future, and the trading volume is beginning to turn weak. It is expected that the weak market will be sorted and operated in the future.

 

3、 Aftermarket forecast

 

Propylene analysts from the Chemical Branch of the Business Society believe that the Spring Festival is approaching, the downstream replenishment is approaching the end, and the procurement has also been reduced. Supported by the cost, it is expected that the propylene market in Shandong Province will operate steadily in the near future.

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After the holiday, hydrofluoric acid fell by more than 10% due to the negative combination

According to the monitoring of the Business News Agency, the price of anhydrous hydrofluoric acid in China dropped sharply after the New Year’s Day. The market price of hydrofluoric acid was 11214.29 yuan/ton as of the 6th day, down 10.29% from the price of 12500 yuan/ton on the 1st day, down 4.96% year on year.

 

Benzalkonium chloride

Supply side: After the holiday, the domestic hydrofluoric acid price dropped sharply. As of the 6th, the mainstream price of hydrofluoric acid negotiated by various regions in China was 11000-11500 yuan/ton. Although some units in the north were shut down recently, the hydrofluoric acid units in the south operated stably, the spot supply of hydrofluoric acid was sufficient, and the manufacturer’s hydrofluoric acid orders were poor, which affected the price trend of hydrofluoric acid.

 

Raw material side: the market price of raw fluorite has dropped from a high level, and the average price of domestic fluorite was 3175 yuan/ton as of the 6th day, down 3.79% from the price of 3300 yuan/ton on the 1st day. Although the operating rate of fluorite mines remains low, and mining enterprises are facing increasingly stringent safety and environmental requirements, resulting in a shortage of fluorite raw materials, some fluorite flotation shutdowns and holidays recently, some enterprises have accumulated fluorite stocks, and the downstream procurement is not active, resulting in a decline in fluorite prices, hydrofluoric acid is affected by costs, and the market price has dropped significantly.

 

ferric sulfate (Poly ferric sulphate)

The market price of raw material sulfuric acid continued to fall, and the average price of domestic sulfuric acid was 280 yuan/ton as of the 6th, and the sulfuric acid market has been falling since the middle of October. In recent years, domestic sulfuric acid plants have been operating stably and the supply is sufficient. The enthusiasm of downstream sulfuric acid procurement has weakened. The product trend has declined under the contradiction between supply and demand, which has driven the domestic hydrofluoric acid market down.

 

Demand side: the market of refrigerant products downstream of the terminal is sluggish, and the operating rate of the refrigerant industry is less than 30%. At present, the price trend of refrigerant R22 is temporarily stable, and the market supply is sufficient. The application field of R22 market is mainly based on demand, and the market quotation of R22 is in the range of 17000-1900 yuan/ton. The price of domestic R134a declined slightly, the price of trichloroethylene was low, and the focus of R134a trading remained low. At present, the market price of R134a is in the range of 23000-25000 yuan/ton. The demand for refrigerants in winter is weak, and under the pressure of cost and demand, the prices of domestic refrigerants R22 and R134a are sluggish in the short term, and the demand of the refrigerant industry is poor, resulting in a sharp decline in the price of hydrofluoric acid.

 

Aftermarket forecast: the price of fluorite in the upstream fell back to a high level, and some downstream refrigerant industries gradually closed their holidays near the end of the year. In addition, the spot supply of hydrofluoric acid was normal. Affected by negative factors, Chen Ling, hydrofluoric acid analyst at the business agency, believed that the price trend of hydrofluoric acid market in the later period would decline.

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The market price of ammonium nitrate rose slightly this week (1.1-1.6)

According to statistics, the domestic market price of ammonium nitrate rose slightly this week. As of the end of the week, the market price of ammonium nitrate was 4300 yuan/ton, up 0.47% from the price of 4280 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, up 8.59% year on year.

 

Azodicarbonamide (AC foaming Agent)

The domestic ammonium nitrate market price rose slightly this week. The domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers’ devices operated stably. The supply of goods on the site was normal in the near future. The factory’s inventory was not high. The price of liquid ammonia upstream of the terminal was higher. In addition, the price of nitric acid rose slightly, and the price of ammonium nitrate rose slightly. Recently, the shipping market of ammonium nitrate manufacturers is normal, and the demand for downstream nitro-compound fertilizer is normal. However, the demand for ammonium nitrate in the domestic downstream civil explosive industry is increasing in the peak season, and the domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers are not operating high, and the price of ammonium nitrate is rising recently. Up to now, the mainstream of negotiation in Shaanxi is 4800-5200 yuan/ton, the mainstream of negotiation in Shandong is 4500-4600 yuan/ton, and the price in Hebei is 4600-4700 yuan/ton.

 

The price of domestic concentrated nitric acid rose this week, with the average price of domestic nitric acid at 2516.67 yuan/ton by the end of the week, up 2.72% from the price of 2450 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week. Ningxia Runxia Energy Chemical quoted 2550 yuan/ton; Shaanxi Xinghua quoted 2150 yuan/ton. Recently, the domestic nitric acid plant has been operating stably, the supply of concentrated nitric acid is normal, and the goods are in good condition in the field. Recently, the price of nitric acid in the field has risen, and the high price of raw material nitric acid has supported the ammonium nitrate market, and the market price of ammonium nitrate has risen slightly.

 

povidone Iodine

The price of upstream liquid ammonia declined this week. As of the end of the week, the price of liquid ammonia was 4606.67 yuan/ton, down 1.43% from the price of 4673.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week. This week, the amount of ammonia released from the main production areas only increased without decreasing, and the shipments from Shandong, Hebei, Shanxi, Henan and other places were large. The main reason is that a large number of overhauled devices are put into production. Since the beginning of this month, Fujian Wanhua and Shenyuan units have resumed production, and because of the high price of liquid ammonia in the early stage, most of the co-production enterprises have converted from urea to liquid ammonia, resulting in a surge in the amount of ammonia. Under the effect of the continuous price reduction of the manufacturers, the shipment strength has been increased. The decline of upstream liquid ammonia price has a certain negative impact on the ammonium nitrate market, and the price increase in the ammonium nitrate market is limited.

 

Recently, the demand of the downstream civil explosive industry has increased, the market price of liquid ammonia has declined, the price of nitric acid has risen, and the spot supply of ammonium nitrate is normal. The ammonium nitrate analyst of the business association believes that the market price of ammonium nitrate may rise slightly in the future.

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In the downstream off-season, lead prices fell (12.30-1.6)

This week, the lead market (12.30-1.6) went down in shock. The average price of the domestic market was 15745 yuan/ton at the end of last week and 15560 yuan/ton at the end of this week, down 1.17%.

 

ferric sulfate (Poly ferric sulphate)

The commodity price K-bar chart uses the concept of price trend K-line to reflect the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments according to the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates: rising; Green means: down; The height of the K column indicates the range of rise and fall. Since the market entered September, the expectation of downstream battery enterprises in the peak season has increased, driving the price of primary lead to rise, and the price has weakened after the end of the peak season.

 

In the futures market, Lun Lead fell continuously this week, with the main fluctuation range of 2188-2298 US dollars/ton. Affected by the weak supply and demand, Lun Lead fell for four consecutive weeks. The main shock range of Shanghai lead was 15600-16110 yuan/ton, which fell continuously this week due to macro factors.

 

Basically, lead has not changed much and remains in the off-season market. On the supply side, all primary lead enterprises have resumed production and stopped production, and the overall operating rate has increased slightly. In terms of downstream demand, after the weather turned cold, the battery manufacturers entered the seasonal off-season, the domestic market was approaching the Spring Festival holiday, and the pre-holiday reserve warehouse was almost at an end. The battery enterprises gradually began to enter the holiday, with a significant decline in the operating rate and a decline in the demand for lead ingots. The market price continued to decline this week, the domestic inventory was in the accumulation stage, and the market trading was cold. In general, the lead ingot market has entered a seasonal off-season, with weak supply and demand in the lead market. The short-term trend continues to follow the macro factors, and there is still some room for decline in the long term.

 

The non-ferrous index stood at 1179 points on January 8, unchanged from yesterday, down 23.34% from the highest point of 1538 points in the cycle (2021-10-18), and up 94.23% from the lowest point of 607 points on November 24, 2015. (Note: the period refers to 2011-12-01 to now).

 

According to the price monitoring of the Business Agency, there were seven commodities in the non-ferrous sector in the list of commodity prices rising and falling in the first week of 2023 (1.2-1.6), with the top three commodities rising respectively being metal praseodymium (2.19%), antimony (1.67%) and neodymium oxide (1.30%). There are 10 commodities with a month-on-month decline, and 2 commodities with a decline of more than 5%, accounting for 8.7% of the monitored commodities in this sector; The top three products falling were nickel (- 9.87%), aluminum (- 5.30%) and silver (- 3.84%). The average rise and fall of this week was -0.93%.

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