1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of the bulk data of the business agency, the mainstream price of styrene in China has risen sharply this week. On Monday (October 26), the price of sample enterprises of business agency was 6600 yuan / ton, and this Friday (October 30) was 7050 yuan / ton, an increase of 6.82%. The price fell by 7.64% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

This week, styrene market prices rose strongly. On October 26, East China styrene closed at around 6600 yuan / ton, and 6900-7150 yuan / ton on October 30, with an increase of 500-600 yuan / ton, and the above is the price of Zhangjiagang. On October 26, South China styrene closed at 6550-6600 yuan / ton, and 6850-6900 yuan / ton on October 30, with an increase of 300 yuan / ton, and the price of the above factories was delivered.

In terms of raw materials, crude oil fell sharply this week, and styrene cost support collapsed. The price of pure benzene and ethylene fell slightly this week. On Thursday (October 29), the mainstream price of pure benzene was 3600 yuan / ton, down 25 yuan / ton or 0.69% from 3625.00 yuan / ton on Monday (October 26). Although styrene rose strongly, pure benzene was affected by the collapse of crude oil, and the high inventory of pure benzene, the fundamentals were weak, and the price rise of pure benzene lacked sufficient support. This week, pure benzene failed to continue the upward trend of last week, the market demand of pure benzene decreased, and the resistance of downstream enterprises to high pure benzene was strong, and the market atmosphere was negative. In addition, the external market of pure benzene continued to fall, the external news was also difficult to benefit the market, so the price fell.

In terms of ethylene, the mainstream ethylene quotation on Thursday (October 29) was 735.00 yuan / ton, down 15.5 yuan / ton or 2.04% from 750.50 yuan / ton on Monday (October 26). This week, the domestic ethylene plant operating rate remained high. Ethylene ships from the United States, South Korea and other regions successively arrived at Hong Kong, increasing the supply of ethylene market. However, the downstream demand weakened and the market focus continued to move down.

In terms of inventory, port styrene inventory decreased this week. The total inventory in East China this week was 237300 tons, down 2.14% from 242500 tons last week. In terms of domestic styrene, the domestic styrene operating rate this week was 85.51%, which was basically unchanged from 85.47% last week, maintaining a high level. In addition to the tight spot supply in South China, the supply of styrene in other regions was fair.

Downstream, styrene downstream overall operating rate is good this week, still maintain considerable production and marketing profits. In PS market, as of Thursday (October 29), the mainstream ex factory price of PS in East China was 7983.33 yuan / T, which was stable compared with last Friday. Although styrene rose strongly this week, the increase of purchasing gas in PS market was weak and the cost support was hopeless.

In the EPS market, as of Thursday (October 29), the mainstream ex factory price of EPS in East China was 7887.50 yuan / ton, flat compared with last Friday. The supply of EPS in East China market is still tight. Some factories are cautious in receiving orders. Downstream merchants are generally willing to buy goods. Some businesses are cautious and wait-and-see. The overall trading atmosphere is general.

In the ABS market, as of Thursday (October 29), the mainstream ex factory quotation of ABS in Zhejiang was 17500.00 yuan / ton, which was stable compared with last Friday. ABS prices remain high this week, supply side, petrochemical plant is still low inventory operation, ABS spot supply is tight. In terms of raw materials, the prices of styrene, butadiene and acrylonitrile have risen recently, and the cost support is strong. However, the downstream of the high price goods and passive a small number of follow-up, trading atmosphere has fallen, ABS prices high consolidation.

3、 Future prospects

In the later stage, the import source of goods arrived less, the terminal continued to reduce the warehouse, the domestic supply became tight, the downstream kept high load operation state, and the demand for styrene was strong. It is expected that styrene will be mainly concentrated in the next week.

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the overall price of lithium carbonate in East China market in October was stable, and the quoted prices of enterprises were mostly stable. As of October 28, the average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate in East China was 39500 yuan / ton, which remained stable compared with the average price at the beginning of the month (the average price of industrial carbon in East China was 39500 yuan / ton on October 1). On October 28, the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in East China was 44200 yuan / ton, which remained stable compared with the average price at the beginning of the month (October 1: the average price of carbon in East China was 44200 yuan / ton). This month, the comprehensive price of industrial grade lithium carbonate is 36000-40000 yuan / ton, and the comprehensive price of battery grade lithium carbonate is between 40000-45000 yuan / ton.

According to the observation of market changes, the price of lithium carbonate has been in a stable situation after the end of the double festival holiday in October. Due to the slightly higher price quoted by enterprises in the early stage, although it is in a favorable state, the price is still stable. However, some enterprises have raised the price of lithium carbonate. The reason for the price increase is that the cost of lithium salt raw materials has increased recently, which leads to the upward trend of lithium carbonate price.

After that, with the increase of lithium iron phosphate end demand, the price of industrial carbon will have an upward trend. However, the current price of battery grade lithium carbonate is relatively low in the downstream, which makes the price in the state of continuous warming in the game. Recently, Australia’s Altura lithium mine has entered the “custody” state. This event will have a certain impact on the supply of raw materials, and will also drive up the cost of raw materials to a certain extent. As a result, downstream products will be transmitted by the rising prices of upstream raw materials.

The prices of the downstream lithium hydroxide Market and lithium iron phosphate Market are stable. There is no obvious fluctuation in the demand side of lithium hydroxide, and the price is basically stable. Domestic high nickel has no obvious impulse for the moment, and the supply side continues to output capacity, so the price is only stable at the cost line and below. Lithium iron phosphate downstream power, energy storage, small power market demand is good, iron lithium price is basically stable.

According to the lithium carbonate analysts of the business club, the supply and demand situation of domestic lithium market varies from place to place, and the situation varies slightly from place to place. Some salt factories in Sichuan are tightening up the delivery, and the transaction price may reach the quoted price, while the order quantity in other regions is relatively limited. It is expected that the price of lithium carbonate will show a slight upward trend in the near future, and there may be upward space in the fourth quarter under the transmission of cost rising pressure.

1、 Price trend

The price of calcium carbide in Northwest China rose slightly this week. This week, the average ex factory quotation price of mainstream calcium carbide manufacturers in Northwest China rose from 2733.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 2766.67 yuan / ton at the end of the week, up 33.34 yuan / ton or 1.22%, down 2.58% from the same period last year. Overall, this week’s calcium carbide market rose slightly, the carbide commodity index on October 23 was 72.49.

2、 Trend analysis

According to the manufacturer’s quotation, the exfactory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China rose slightly this week: the carbide price of oviganeng was 2740 yuan / ton at the end of this week, which was temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the week; the price of carbide was 2760 yuan / ton at the end of this week, which was temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week; the price of calcium carbide in Xingping of Ningxia was 2800 yuan / ton at the end of this week, which was 100 yuan / ton higher than that at the beginning of the week.

Overall, the actual transaction price of calcium carbide in Northwest China is about 2700-2800 yuan / ton this weekend: the mainstream transaction price of calcium carbide in Shaanxi is about 2740 yuan / ton; the mainstream transaction price of calcium carbide in Ningxia is about 2780 yuan / ton; the mainstream transaction price of calcium carbide in Inner Mongolia is about 2750 yuan / ton, and the actual transaction price is mainly through negotiation.

From the calcium carbide upstream and downstream industry chain, upstream raw material market, orchid charcoal factory quotation this week temporarily stable. At present, the quotation of small materials is 650 yuan / ton, that of medium materials is 680 yuan / ton, and that of large materials is about 750 yuan / ton. The upstream raw material prices rose slightly and the cost support was good, which had a positive impact on the price of calcium carbide.

Downstream market, PVC factory price rose this week. The price of PVC increased by 0.72% from 6975.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 7025.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, breaking through the 7000 mark. Compared with the same period last year, it increased by 5.56%. This week, PVC prices rose slightly, the market is good, downstream purchasing enthusiasm for calcium carbide, overall, PVC market this week has a positive impact on calcium carbide prices.

3、 Future forecast

In late October, calcium carbide market fluctuated slightly and rose mainly. The price of raw materials in the upstream rose slightly, which supported the price of calcium carbide better, while the price of PVC in the downstream rose slightly. The downstream customers had a good enthusiasm for purchasing calcium carbide. The later market forecast that the price of calcium carbide in Northwest China will rise slightly in late October.

1、 Price trend

The domestic xylene market fell slightly this week. As of Friday, the domestic average price was about 3450 yuan / ton, down 0.58% month on month.

2、 Analysis and comment

Xylene prices fell slightly this week. Sinopec’s enterprises in South China have lowered the price of xylene by about 50 yuan / ton this week. The port inventory is still high. At present, the port inventory in East China is about 134000 tons, down about 9000 tons compared with last week. However, there is still pressure to go to the warehouse, and the price is slightly weak. There has been a slight fluctuation in recent years, and there is no improvement. Market oversupply, downstream Px, gasoline blending demand is general. At present, the mainstream price in East China is about 3450 yuan / ton. The future market continued to pay attention to the fluctuation of the US dollar index and the stock market, the impact of the geopolitical situation in the Middle East on crude oil supply, the development of new crown vaccine, the impact of economic restart and recovery on crude oil demand, the global economic recovery and the progress of the European and American economic recovery rescue plan.

Upstream, crude oil, the recent crude oil market volatility is weak, this week international crude oil prices fell. As of Friday, spot Brent fell $0.415/barrel to close at $41.235/barrel, down 1% from last week. Analysts and traders are bearish on the outlook for crude oil next week, according to fx168′s weekly financial market survey released on Saturday (October 24). In addition, the world bank said in its latest half year commodity market outlook report that although energy prices have rebounded, they are expected to stabilize below the pre epidemic level. The average price of crude oil in 2021 is US $44 per barrel, higher than US $41 per barrel in 2020.

Downstream, in terms of PX market, the listed price of domestic Sinopec’s enterprises was about 4450 yuan / ton this week, and the latest external price was about 533 US dollars / ton FOB Korea and 551 US dollars / ton CFR China. It is expected that the short-term PX market will maintain a small fluctuation trend. In terms of PTA market, the market price dropped slightly this week. The domestic PTA spot market price is about 3450 yuan / ton, and the external price is about 446 US dollars / ton CFR China. It is expected that PTA price will maintain a small fluctuation trend next week. In terms of ox market, Sinopec quoted 4400 yuan / ton of o-benzene, and the external price of o-benzene was about 535 US dollars / ton FOB Korea and 560 US dollars / ton CFR China. It is expected that the price of o-benzene will continue to fluctuate slightly next week.

3、 Future forecast

Xylene analysts of the chemical branch of the business society think: first look at the supply cost side, the implementation of OPEC + production reduction, the total number of us oil drilling and EIA, API inventory data. Second, on the demand side, the impact of the second outbreak of global epidemic on crude oil demand, the progress of industrial chain recovery, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East and China, and the economic and trade situation in Europe and the United States. Third, look at the dollar index and stock market linkage. Next week, we will focus on the US general election, the progress of a new round of US stimulus measures, and the impact of dollar index and stock market volatility on the trend of crude oil. Overall, it is expected that xylene prices in the domestic market will remain weak and stable next week.

1、 Price data

According to the data of the business club’s bulk list, the price of domestic refiners’ petroleum coke products rose. At the beginning of the week, the average price of petroleum coke in Shandong market was 1428 yuan / ton, and the average price of petroleum coke at weekend was 1490.75 yuan / ton, with a price increase of 4.39% and a year-on-year increase of 27.61%. On October 22, the commodity index of petroleum coke was 115.75, up 2.12 points compared with yesterday, 25.61% lower than 155.59 points (2018-01-25), 73.05% higher than 66.89 points on March 28, 2016. (Note: period refers to 2012-09-30 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

The main reason for the rise in the price of petroleum coke is the shortage of supply. The supply of low sulfur coke is less, and the market transaction is better. The supply of medium and high sulfur coke is insufficient, the downstream demand is acceptable, and there are many maintenance manufacturers, and the price of medium and high sulfur coke is rising.

Upstream: in the short term, the oil market will still be suppressed by demand, and the supply side will not be favorable. At present, OPEC + production reduction is still in accordance with the agreement reached before, and there is still no new policy trend. Moreover, the United States is in the middle of the general election, and there are great differences between the two parties in the implementation of the new fiscal stimulus policy. Considering comprehensively, oil prices will continue to be under pressure in the near future.

Downstream: in the near future, the carbon market shipment is OK, and the downstream electrolytic aluminum high-level shock has played a supporting role. However, the profits of carbon enterprises are not high, so it is expected to operate under pressure in the near future. Metal silicon market because of the strong sales sentiment of enterprises, the price may rise steadily. In terms of steam coal, the domestic power plant inventory is at a high level, and the demand for winter storage and replenishment of key power plants exists, and the inventory continues to rise. The power plant has a large inventory, but the winter heating season is coming, and the power plant still needs to replenish the storage of steam coal. It is estimated that the short-term steam coal price will still be dominated by the overall operation within the range.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of business agency, in the 41 th week (10.12-10.16) of 2020, there are 9 kinds of commodities in the energy sector rising and falling list, including 1 commodity with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 6.3% of the total number of commodities monitored in this sector; the top three commodities of increase are methanol (5.75%), liquefied natural gas (4.17%) and liquefied gas (1.62%). There were 5 kinds of commodities that declined on a month on month basis, and the top three products were asphalt (- 1.20%), MTBE (- 1.10%) and naphtha (- 0.37%). This week, the average rise and fall was 0.77%.

The oil coke analysts of the business agency believe that: the current price of petroleum coke is rising due to tight supply of goods, and some manufacturers’ maintenance is good for the petroleum coke. It is predicted that the trend of Petroleum Coke will be better in the short term or continue. The specific situation depends on the demand of downstream market.

1、 Market price trend chart of paraformaldehyde

Polyoxymethylene price curve

According to the monitoring of the business agency, this week, the average quotation of Polyoxymethylene (96) in Shandong Province was 4500 yuan / ton, which was stable.

2、 Market analysis

Shandong aldehyde Chemical Industry Co., Ltd., with an annual output of 30000 tons of paraformaldehyde, Polyoxymethylene (96) ex factory, including tax, quoted 4600 yuan / ton, which was the same as last week. Linyi Shengyang Chemical Co., Ltd., with an annual output of 9000 tons of paraformaldehyde, Polyoxymethylene (96) ex factory, including tax, quoted 4300-4400 yuan / ton, which was the same as last week. Zibo Qixing Chemical Technology Co., Ltd., with an annual output of 10000 tons of paraformaldehyde, Polyoxymethylene (96) ex factory, including tax, quoted 4600 yuan / ton, which was the same as last week. The market of paraformaldehyde is acceptable.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average price of methanol producers in Shandong was 1825 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week (10.12), and 1930 yuan / ton at the weekend (10.16), with an increase of 5.75% during the week.

3、 Future forecast

POM analysts believe that: raw material methanol price preference, paraformaldehyde may rise slightly.

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, as of October 19, the ex factory transaction price of domestic propylene glycol was 9333 yuan / ton. Compared with October 11, the average price of propylene glycol increased by 167 yuan / ton, or 1.82%.

At the beginning of last week, the market remained stable after the low-end price of propylene glycol moved up

At the beginning of last week, the domestic propylene glycol market was in shock and consolidation operation. The low-end quotation was adjusted upward, and some high-end offers moved down a few times. The upward and downward ranges were limited. The fluctuation adjustment was within the range, with the adjustment range of 200-300 yuan / ton. The main reason for the shock finishing was the high offer pressure under the inverted hanging of propylene glycol cost due to the high raw materials, and After a small market shock, the market as a whole is weak and stable. The downstream demand is general, and the end users continue to be rigid demand. Strong resistance to high prices. The sales of foreign trade parts are not so good.

As of October 19, the ex factory transaction price of domestic propylene glycol was referred to 9333 yuan / ton. Compared with October 11, the average price of propylene glycol increased by 167 yuan / ton, or 1.82%.

Upstream, nearly a week, propylene oxide Market high stability, mainly wait and see. According to the data of the business club, as of October 16, the average price quoted by propylene oxide enterprises was 18966.67 yuan / ton, which was flat compared with the beginning of the week, increased by 20.04% compared with September 16, and increased by 80.06% compared with the same period last year. At present, there is little change in the market fundamentals, the pace of trading is slowing down, the downstream on-demand procurement is the main, the wait-and-see sentiment is strong, and the manufacturer’s offer is stable.

Internationally, on October 16, the U.S. WTI crude oil futures market prices rose slightly, with the settlement price of main contracts at $41.12/barrel, up $0.16. Brent crude oil futures market prices fell slightly, with the main contract settlement price at 42.93 US dollars / barrel, down 0.23 US dollars. On Friday, the oil price was adjusted in a small range, and the economic recovery prospect caused by the epidemic situation was not clear.

The shortage of demand is a hard injury, which will still be sorted out in the short term

The downstream demand can only maintain rigid demand, and large orders are less, so the demand is still the biggest resistance to the continuous upward trend of propylene glycol, and the industry is lack of confidence. It is expected that the price of propylene glycol will fluctuate in a narrow range in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the business agency, the domestic maleic anhydride market fell sharply. As of October 16, the average price of maleic anhydride by benzene hydrogenation method remained at about 8466 yuan / ton, a sharp decline of 5.93% compared with the beginning of the month and a decrease of 1.93% compared with the same period of last month.

The commodity index of maleic anhydride on October 15 was 81.64, down 0.63 points compared with yesterday, 33.99% lower than 123.67 points (2017-12-26), and 59.52% higher than the lowest point of 51.18 points on April 14, 2020..

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Products: the domestic maleic anhydride market fell sharply this week, with the decline of more than 1000 yuan / ton in various regions. Due to the rapid recovery of maleic anhydride plant operation compared with the downstream market, resulting in excess supply in the industry. In addition, the resistance of the downstream to the high price of Maleic anhydride in the early stage, the recent price reduction is obvious. At present, there are about 6500 yuan / ton of solid anhydride in Shandong, 6800 yuan / ton in Jiangsu, 6500 yuan / ton in Shanxi, 6600 yuan / ton in Hebei and 7000 yuan / ton in South China.

Industrial chain: the hydrobenzene market is rising steadily, enterprises mainly implement contracts, and the supply of goods in the industry is tight, at present, it is about 3320 yuan / ton; the production recovery of downstream resin industry is less than expected, the overall demand is soft, and the price support for maleic anhydride is insufficient, and the horizontal arrangement is mainly in a short time.

3、 Future forecast

The maleic anhydride product analysts of the business club believe that the current maleic anhydride market continues to decline, the transaction volume in the industry is light, and the transaction price of sporadic small orders is still low. In addition, the price mentality of the downstream market is obvious, and it is expected that the weakness will be difficult to change in a short period of time.

Commodity index: the commodity index of polyaluminum chloride on September 29 was 86.87, up 1.16 points compared with yesterday, 20.31% lower than 109.01 point (2019-08-28), and 3.02% higher than the lowest point of 84.32 on August 18, 2020. (Note: cycle refers to the period from April 1, 2019 to now)

Commodity market: according to the data, in September, the mainstream quotation of polyaluminum chloride with solid content ≥ 28% first stabilized and then rose, stable in the first half of the month and fluctuated in the second half. On the 1st day, the mainstream price was 1571.43 yuan / ton, and on the 29th, it was 1607.14 yuan / ton, with a monthly increase of 2.27%. Due to the rising price of raw materials, the price has been raised continuously in recent years, and some manufacturers have increased about 150 yuan / ton recently.

Upstream raw material: hydrochloric acid: according to the introduction of polyaluminum manufacturers in Henan Province, the purchase price of hydrochloric acid in Henan Province rose to 180 yuan / ton this month. It is not that they can get the goods at any time, but they have to queue up. The rising price of hydrochloric acid has caused great cost pressure on polyaluminum chloride this month, and the export price of polyaluminum chloride will rise immediately. Calcium powder: according to the polyaluminum manufacturer, the price of calcium powder increased by about 80 yuan / ton in August, but the price rise was not obvious this month, and the pressure of the cost rise of polyaluminum chloride remained at the level of August.

Downstream demand: in the traditional peak season of “Jinjiu Yinshi”, the price of polyaluminum chloride has increased obviously, which is mainly due to the continuous rise in the cost of raw materials such as calcium powder and hydrochloric acid. The demand for polyaluminum in water treatment projects has begun to increase with the strict requirements of environmental protection inspection.

Industry: in September, the price of raw materials such as calcium powder purchased by some enterprises increased, which affected the ex factory price of polyaluminum chloride; generally speaking, the downstream demand of water treatment industry did not enter the actual sales peak season, and the market rise was mainly subject to the pressure of cost side, and the market had certain expectations for the future trend of water treatment industry.

After market forecast: the analysis of the business agency believes that the traditional season of “golden nine silver ten” has obvious characteristics. According to the manufacturer, the cost rises and the factory price rises in this season every year. For the future market, the manufacturers believe that the water treatment demand will have a certain support under the influence of the following heating and environmental protection factors. The future trend of polyaluminum chloride will be stable and bullish, when seize this season’s market every year.