According to the price monitoring of the business community, the market price of industrial grade and battery grade lithium carbonate in East China was in a continuous upward trend in October 2021, but the rise rate slowed down significantly. As of October 28, the average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate in East China was 180600 yuan / ton, which increased by 7.63% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month (the average price of industrial carbon in East China was 167800 yuan / ton on October 1). On October 28, the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in East China was 188400 yuan / ton, which increased by 7.53% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month (the average price of carbon in East China was 175200 yuan / ton on October 1). Until the 28th, the comprehensive price of industrial grade lithium carbonate was 182000-188000 yuan / ton, and the comprehensive price of battery grade lithium carbonate was 192000-205000 yuan / ton.

From the observation of market changes, the price of lithium carbonate gradually stabilized after the National Day holiday. Due to the impact of the “dual control of energy consumption” policy, the production of downstream enterprises decreased significantly, so the demand decreased relatively, making the price of lithium carbonate rise slowly. In addition, the obvious delay in the expansion of iron lithium market and the lower than expected increase in demand are also one of the factors contributing to the slow rise in the price of lithium carbonate. Subsequently, the price of lithium carbonate continued to rise, and the upward range slowed down significantly. All enterprises showed a slight increase in the price quotation of lithium carbonate, and the slow upward trend continued until the end of the month.

At present, all enterprises are in the state of tentative quotation, with strong market wait-and-see mood and relatively few transactions. Due to the impact of power rationing, some downstream cathode material plants reduced their purchase volume, the purchase demand weakened, and the market pricing was in a game state, which relaxed the tension of industrial carbon and electric carbon shipment.

In terms of upstream raw materials, the impact of power rationing and geological disasters in many places in China at the end of September had a slight impact on lithium salt production. The output of lithium carbonate extracted from spodumene also decreased, while the output of lithium mica and Salt Lake changed little. In October, the impact of film restrictions gradually eased, the output increased relatively, and the relationship between market supply and demand was alleviated. On October 26, Pilbara company, one of the largest spodumene concentrate producers in Australia, held the third spodumene concentrate auction. The final auction price was set at US $2350 / ton, up 5% from the last auction price. According to the ore price, the cost of lithium carbonate increased to 172500 yuan / ton.

The price of downstream lithium hydroxide was stable at a high level in October, and the prices of upstream spodumene and lithium carbonate were high. There was some support on the cost side. On the supply side, most of the devices of mainstream production enterprises operated at a high level, the demand side was relatively stable, and the market operated smoothly. In the second half of the month, the cost side support was still strong, the tight supply situation was alleviated, and the focus of market negotiation was high and stable.

In terms of lithium iron phosphate, the market price was dominant in a narrow range in October, stable and strong, and the price continued to rise. Due to the strong upstream cost support, the rise did not decrease along the way. The downstream just needs procurement, and the transaction atmosphere is cautious. Due to the high focus of negotiation, the transaction atmosphere is strong.

According to the lithium carbonate analysts of business society, the supply of lithium carbonate market is still slightly tight, then the demand for lithium iron phosphate will begin to increase, and the domestic lithium salt production in Qinghai will decrease in winter. These factors will lead to a tight supply situation. It is expected that the short-term lithium carbonate price may continue to grow steadily.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, in October, hydrogen peroxide opened a sharp rise mode, and the price continued to hit a record high, with a maximum increase of more than 100%. After more than 20 days of sharp rise, there was a high platform diving, and the price fell rapidly, down more than 30%. At the beginning of the month, the average price of hydrogen peroxide market was 880 yuan / ton, and at the end of the month, the average price of hydrogen peroxide market was 1256 yuan / ton, with a price increase of 42.8%.

According to the annual comparison chart of hydrogen peroxide from 2018 to 2021, the highest price of hydrogen peroxide was 1816 yuan / ton on October 19, 2021, which has reached a four-year high. In the same period, the price of hydrogen peroxide was only 1338 yuan / ton in 2018, 1473 yuan / ton in 2019 and 1280 yuan / ton in 2020. In October this year, the hydrogen peroxide market rose sharply, mainly due to the impact of dual control policy, tight supply and increased terminal rigid demand. The market ushered in a crazy rise, with an increase of more than 100% for more than half a month.

According to the weekly rise and fall chart of hydrogen peroxide of business society from August 2, 2021 to October 18, 2021, it can be seen that the overall performance of the market in August and September is low. In mid September, the hydrogen peroxide Market improved, with a maximum weekly increase of 3.15%. After October 11, hydrogen peroxide ushered in a sharp rise, with a continuous rise. In the week of October 11, hydrogen peroxide rose by 29.57%. Hydrogen peroxide rose 3.5% in the week of October 18. At the end of October, after the hydrogen peroxide market rose sharply, the sharp decline mode was started.

Long short game hydrogen peroxide market rose sharply and then fell sharply

After the national day, the steam cost of hydrogen peroxide unit increased due to the rise of coal price. In addition to the terminal caprolactam, the rigid demand support of the paper printing industry, the increase in procurement, and the tight supply of some hydrogen peroxide manufacturers, supported by multiple favorable factors, hydrogen peroxide manufacturers have raised the ex factory price of hydrogen peroxide, and the rise of hydrogen peroxide is amazing.

The increase in the week of October 7 was average. In the week of October 15, hydrogen peroxide kept rising, and the ex factory price was raised for many times, with a daily increase of more than 100 yuan / ton, from 1003 yuan / ton on October 11 to 1300 yuan / ton on October 15, an increase of more than 30%. On October 18, the average price of hydrogen peroxide broke through 1700 yuan / ton, with a single day increase of more than 30%.

On October 18, the quotation of hydrogen peroxide in Luxi, Shandong was 1740 yuan / ton, an increase of 420 yuan / ton in a single day; Hebei Zhengyuan hydrogen peroxide quoted 1600 yuan / ton, with a single day increase of 320 yuan / ton; Quansheng chemical hydrogen peroxide quoted 1800 yuan / ton, an increase of 500 yuan / ton per day.

After several rounds of sharp rise in hydrogen peroxide Market, near the last week of the end of the month, due to the influence of power restriction policy, the demand of the terminal turned weak. The continuously rising hydrogen peroxide market was returned to its original shape, and the price plunged sharply. On October 25, the one-day decline was close to 20%. As of October 28, hydrogen peroxide fell by more than 30%.

Li Bing, hydrogen peroxide analyst of business society, believes that: under the pressure of terminal demand, the hydrogen peroxide market has returned to the market before the rise, and the falling space in the future is limited.

1、 Price data

According to the bulk list data of business society, the price of petroleum coke of local refiners rose slightly this week. On October 24, the average price of Shandong market was 3268.00 yuan / ton, up 2.09% from 3201.00 yuan / ton on October 18.

On October 24, the commodity index of petroleum coke was 254.18, unchanged from yesterday, down 3.06% from the highest point 262.19 in the cycle (2021-09-29), and up 280.00% from the lowest point 66.89 on March 28, 2016. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 30, 2012 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

The refinery shipped well this week, the refinery actively shipped to inventory, the refinery inventory was low, and the local refined petroleum coke price rose slightly.

Upstream: since October, international crude oil prices have risen, the economies of major economies around the world have continued to recover, and fuel demand has rebounded, but U.S. inventories have continued to decline, and oil and gas recovery in the Gulf of Mexico has been slow. In addition to the supply restriction policy of the organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC +), the supply-demand gap is expected to give strong support to oil prices, and the impact of natural gas shortage in Europe, oil prices will still rise due to demand in the medium and short term.

Downstream: the price of calcined coke remained basically stable this week; Metal silicon market has declined; The price of downstream electrolytic aluminum fell. As of October 24, the price was 21913.33 yuan / ton.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business society, in the list of commodity prices rising and falling in the 42nd week of 2021 (10.18-10.22), there are 11 commodities rising month on month in the energy sector, including 4 commodities rising by more than 5%, accounting for 25% of the monitored commodities in the sector; The top three commodities were MTBE (10.50%), liquefied gas (9.48%) and naphtha (8.59%). There are 4 kinds of commodities with a month on month decrease, and 1 kind of commodity with a decrease of more than 5%, accounting for 6.3% of the monitored commodities in this sector; The products with the top three declines were methanol (- 10.53%), liquefied natural gas (- 1.47%) and power coal (- 0.42%). The average rise and fall this week was 2.41%.

Petroleum coke analysts of business society believe that the price of petroleum coke in refineries has fallen recently. Refineries actively ship to inventory, with good trading and low inventory. The price of downstream electrolytic aluminum fell, and the price of calcined coke remained basically stable. It is expected that the price of petroleum coke may decline slightly in the near future.

According to the bulk commodity list data of business society, the market price of formaldehyde in Shandong fell. On the 1st, the average price of formaldehyde in Shandong was 1676.67 yuan / ton, on the 25th, the average price of formaldehyde in Shandong was 1850.00 yuan / ton, up 10.34%, and the highest point was on the 13th, the average price was 2267.67 yuan / ton. The current price rose 16.11% month on month, and the current price rose 73.44% year-on-year.

formaldehyde

In October, the market price of formaldehyde in Shandong rose first and then fell. As can be seen from the above figure, formaldehyde rose for more than two consecutive months and fell for two weeks, which can be described as ups and downs. As of October 25, the mainstream market price in Shandong is 1700-1800 yuan / ton. Linyi jinyimeng formaldehyde production line with an annual production capacity of 100000 tons has resumed normal production. Recently, formaldehyde enterprises started well, with sufficient inventory, general market trading atmosphere, and the formaldehyde market fell.

Summary of formaldehyde market prices in various regions as of October 25:

Region, price

East China 1930-1940 yuan / ton

North China 1880 yuan / ton

Central China 1950 yuan / ton

Northwest China 2070 yuan / ton

Upstream methanol: Recently, the domestic methanol spot market has plummeted and is still at a high level. After the sharp reduction of the factories in the main production area, the transaction was general, the local second adjustment soon appeared, and the terminal receiving price in northern Shandong was also reduced as scheduled. With the sharp decline of futures, mainland regions also began to follow the downward trend. This is mainly because the northwest takes out methanol, but the sales are general, the enterprise inventory increases, the Underground Tour in Shandong and so on, and the enthusiasm for receiving goods is not high. Methanol market fell sharply, unable to support the formaldehyde market, and formaldehyde fell.

At present, the operation of the downstream plate factory is general, and most of them hold a wait-and-see attitude towards the formaldehyde market. The bargaining mood is strong. The formaldehyde manufacturer maintains the shipment at a low price, the market inventory digestion is poor, and the formaldehyde market falls.

Recently, with the sharp decline of futures, the spot market of domestic methanol has plummeted, which can not form a cost support for formaldehyde. Therefore, formaldehyde analysts of the chemical branch of business society expect that the recent price of formaldehyde in Shandong will mainly fall by shock.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, the domestic glycine market price remained stable this week, and the average price of industrial glycine remained stable at 27333 yuan / ton.

2、 Analysis and review

According to the monitoring of business society, the glycine market is currently closed, and the supply of goods in the site is tight. According to the news, the price of industrial glycine exceeded 35000 yuan / ton. Glycine enterprises in Hebei began to stop reporting this week and mainly completed the orders of old customers. It is difficult to find one product in the market and the price is chaotic. A single negotiation is implemented. Glycine in Shandong continued to stop reporting, the start of enterprises was unstable, and the shortage of supply was exacerbated.

Downstream products: the price of glyphosate technical drug is close to 80000 yuan / ton. Most technical drug enterprises do not accept new orders or quote. The demand continues to improve and the supply of goods continues to be tight. The prices of raw materials such as yellow phosphorus, acetic acid and glycine have soared, and glyphosate still has room to rise in the future.

3、 Future forecast

Glycine analysts of business society believe that the supply of glyphosate in the lower reaches remained in short supply in the fourth quarter. With the rise of raw materials and demand support, the rise of glycine price has become inevitable. How much can it be? Pay close attention to the driving situation of enterprises and the changes of downstream demand.

1、 Price trend

According to the commodity data monitoring, the titanium dioxide market is basically stable this week, and the domestic titanium dioxide price is 20950 yuan / ton.

2、 Market analysis

The market price of titanium dioxide is basically stable this week. Price increase letters from various manufacturers have been issued successively, including Longbai group, CNNC titanium dioxide, dainterworking, etc. The price increase is mainly to stabilize the price, supplemented by raising the price. Up to now, the factory quotation including tax of rutile titanium dioxide in China is 19500-21800 yuan / ton; The ex factory quotation of anatase titanium dioxide including tax is between 17600-19500 yuan / ton. At present, titanium dioxide enterprises are limited by the sound of films, more parking, low market operation, and many enterprises have sent letters to raise prices. The trading market has a strong wait-and-see mentality. Traders are more cautious in taking goods and mainly purchase on demand.

In terms of titanium concentrate, the price of titanium concentrate in Panxi continued to decline this week. The titanium ore market in Yunnan is relatively cold, the market inquiry is general, the manufacturers deliver more early orders, the downstream wait-and-see mood is strong, and the market price is reduced slightly. Up to now, the tax free quotation of 38 grade titanium ore is about 1650-1700 yuan / ton, that of 46 grade 10 titanium ore is about 2400-2450 yuan / ton, and that of 47 grade 20 ore is about 2500-2550 yuan / ton. The operating rate of the downstream titanium dioxide plant decreases, the overall demand for titanium concentrate shrinks slightly, and the demand for titanium ore market weakens. The overall market trading atmosphere is general, traders are cautious in taking goods, and the wait-and-see mood is obvious. Downstream procurement is mainly on demand. It is expected that the price of titanium concentrate will remain stable in the short term, and the actual transaction price will be dominated by single negotiation.

In terms of sulfuric acid, the downstream limited power and environmental protection factors have weakened the demand. According to the bulk list data of business society, the price of sulfuric acid fell slightly this week. So far, the average price of sulfuric acid in Shandong is 795 yuan / ton.

3、 Future forecast

Titanium dioxide analysts of business society believe that: at present, the quotation of titanium dioxide market is strong, upstream and downstream purchase on demand, and the manufacturers have strong willingness to rise. Internationally, the demand for foreign trade is acceptable and there is no pressure in the short term. In terms of raw materials, although titanium concentrate and sulfuric acid have decreased slightly, they are still at a high level, and the cost pressure of titanium dioxide is large. It is expected that the titanium dioxide market will be more wait-and-see and consolidation in the short term.

According to the monitoring of business society, the price of domestic adipic acid rose sharply in the week of October 11-15. After the market entered a stable period in the first ten days, the price of adipic acid rose again due to the impact of cost and supply shortage. According to the monitoring of business society, the weekly increase of adipic acid in East China reached 13.90 yuan / ton. At present, the mainstream price range in the market is 12500-12800 yuan / ton, and even some offers are as high as 13000 yuan / ton.

In terms of market supply, the operating rate of adipic acid manufacturers continued to decline last week, with an operating rate of less than 60%. In addition to the shutdown of Hongding unit, the output of Taihua unit was damaged due to instability. More importantly, the maintenance plan of Shenma and Tianli hi tech in mid and late October led to a decrease in supply and an expected rise in temperature. The sharp rise in the price of adipic acid is inseparable from the shortage of supply.

Adipic acid industry chain trend chart

The adipic acid industry chain shows that the cost side continues to be strong and the downstream is weak. The price of adipic acid as an intermediate product is affected by the cost, the increase is stronger than that of downstream products, and the enterprise profit continues to improve compared with August.

Trend chart of pure benzene Market

Cyclohexanone market trend chart

In terms of cost, crude oil continued to rise, driving the strength of the downstream of chemical industry. After the sharp decline of pure benzene in late September, it approached the historical high again after the festival. According to the monitoring of business society, as of October 15, the increase of pure benzene in October was 7.11%, cyclohexanone remained high and volatile, and now it has also reached the historical high. The rising cost is the most direct factor for the rise of adipic acid.

PA66 market trend chart

Terminal demand: from the perspective of PA66 downstream of adipic acid, the price of PA66 products rebounded at the end of August and has maintained a high shock trend since October, with a slight upward trend of 0.25%. The market is dominated by rigid demand. In other fields, the demand of polyurethane plate is general, dominated by rigid procurement, and the market began to enter the off-season. It can be said that the demand is still a restrictive factor restricting the continuous rise of adipic acid price.

In the later stage, the business society believes that adipic acid will continue to be boosted by both cost and supply. In particular, recently, Shenma and Tianli high tech devices are facing maintenance, and the reduction of market supply is expected to continue to support the price, but it will also be counteracted by the weak downstream demand. Adipic acid will still maintain a strong trend under the supply-demand game in the short term.

Trade name: melamine

Latest price (October 11): 19800 yuan / ton

On October 19, the melamine market rose, up 4.58% compared with the previous trading day, 16.47% compared with the price on September 19, and 62.30% year-on-year in a three-month cycle. At present, the upstream urea price is high, the cost side has certain support, the export support is stable, the enterprise sales are not under pressure, the supply of goods is tight, the downstream pressure is followed up, and the focus of market negotiation is high.

It is expected that in the short term, the melamine market may operate strongly.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, the average ex factory price of powdered monoammonium was 3500 yuan / ton on October 11 and 3466 yuan / ton on October 15. The price of monoammonium phosphate fell by 0.95% this week.

According to the bulk list data of business society, the average ex factory price of 64% diammonium phosphate was 3590 yuan / ton on October 11 and 3590 yuan / ton on October 15. The price of diammonium phosphate was stable this week.

2、 Market analysis

The price of monoammonium phosphate fell slightly this week. The operating rate of enterprises this week was 52%, down from last week. At present, the market atmosphere is weak, the market trend is poor, and the price is adjusted in a narrow range. The operating rate of downstream compound fertilizer decreased, and the purchase intention of raw materials was not obvious, so they mostly took a wait-and-see attitude. At present, the factory quotation of 55% powdered ammonium in China is 3300-3500 yuan / ton. The factory quotation of 58% powdered ammonium is about 3600 yuan / ton.

The price of diammonium phosphate was stable this week. The operating rate of enterprises this week was 54%, down from last week. At present, most diammonium enterprises have a large export waiting volume, and still mainly issue early orders. The cost support is good, the downstream orders are supplemented on demand, and the price of diammonium continues to be high and strong. The factory quotation of 64% mainstream diammonium in Hubei is 3550-3650 yuan / ton, and the actual transaction can be negotiated.

This week, the domestic market situation of raw phosphorus ore was consolidated and operated stably. This week, some mining enterprises in Guizhou resumed mining, mainly for contract users. The supply in some parts of the phosphorus ore market is still tight. Affected by the weak operation in the downstream, the enthusiasm of taking goods in the downstream is general.

3、 Future forecast

The ammonium phosphate analyst of business society believes that the current market situation of Monoammonium is weak and the downstream compound fertilizer enterprises are not active in purchasing. It is expected that the price of monoammonium phosphate will mainly operate weakly and stably in the short term. At present, there are sufficient advance orders for diammonium, and there is no sales pressure for the time being. It is expected that diammonium phosphate will continue to operate at a high level and stably in the short term.

Price trend:

According to the bulk list data of business society, the domestic ABS market fluctuated, sorted out and operated, and the spot price rose on the whole. As of October 15, the average price of general-purpose ABS mainstream offer was about 18225 yuan / ton, an increase of 2.39% over the price level at the beginning of the month and 9.79% over the same period last year.

Factor analysis:

Industrial chain: the upstream styrene increased greatly due to the upward trend of international oil price and the benefits of chemical chain products. The recent rise is strong and has been corrected this week. In addition, some production lines are shut down for maintenance, and the support for styrene at the supply end is strengthened.

The price of acrylonitrile has been stable and small this week, and the upstream raw material market has strengthened, but it has not been fed back to the spot price of acrylonitrile, and the offer of merchants in the venue is still relatively stable. The on-site trading is general, the message surface is weak, and the procurement operation on the demand side is cautious.

The price of butadiene has been declining for more than a month. At present, the domestic butadiene market has increased slightly, and the market has stopped falling and warmed up, which has increased the enthusiasm of downstream position replenishment. With the price increase and transaction of northeast goods, the market focus is on the rise as a whole.

The upstream market fluctuated, and the cost side support of ABS was general. In terms of operating rate, the newly increased capacity in the early stage and the maintenance plans of several production lines exist at the same time. The recent power restriction environmental protection policy and shutdown maintenance of some enterprises have caused a certain loss of capacity, and the decline in operating rate of ABS industry is good for the supply side. At the same time, there is a certain amount of downstream demand, and the terminal enterprises just need to take the goods.

Future forecast:

Business analysts believe that the ABS spot market fluctuated this week, and the trend of the three upstream materials fluctuated, which generally contributed to the ABS. The operating rate of domestic ABS related enterprises has decreased due to the impact of environmental protection related policies, but there is a certain rigid demand at the terminal in peak season to support the kinetic energy in the field. After the spot rose, it was resisted by the buyer. In the second half of the week, the merchant sold the goods at a profit and made an offer callback. It is expected that the ABS spot market may still fluctuate slightly in the short term.