Price Trend

According to the data of business associations, toluene market prices in China were high and volatile this week, but they were higher than last week. Prices of enterprises were stable at the beginning of the week and continued to rise from mid-week to weekend. At the beginning of the week, the average price of enterprises was 5,000 yuan per ton per week, and at the end of the week, the average price of enterprises was 5,073 yuan per ton per week, with a weekly increase of 1.47%.

II. Analytical Review

1. Products: Toluene market prices were stable in the early part of this week. Due to the impact of crude oil on prices in the middle of the week, the current market mainstream transaction price is around 5180-5230 yuan/ton. Downstream demand has improved. Port stocks have consumed China. Stocks in the eastern region are around 38,000 tons, down by about 60,000 tons from 44,000 tons on Thursday, June 13.

2. Industrial chain:

On the upstream side, in terms of crude oil, international oil prices fell first and then rose this week, with a slight overall rise. Geographical tensions between the United States and Iraq, increased supply contraction expectations and the Fed’s interest rate cut expectations are the main positive factors. Brent crude oil ranges from $60.01 to $64.38 per ton, with weekly low prices on June 18 and weekly high prices on the weekend, with a weekly amplitude of about 3.82%.

On the downstream side, PXN fell to $317.045/ton due to the sharp rise in oil prices and naphtha. The PX market is currently tight in July and August, and PTA and polyester are showing a rising trend, which supports PX and makes PX stronger. On the TDI market, the market warmed up slightly last week, the signs of the downstream surge weakened, and the turnover was slightly unsatisfactory. Second-hand merchants liquidated their positions and terminal warehouses increased. Mainly. Overall demand has improved.

3. Future Market Forecast

Analysts of toluene in the branch of business society and chemical industry believe that, in a word, the market of toluene is expected to fluctuate strongly next week. Next week, oil prices are expected to remain stable at high levels, with weak momentum to continue to move upwards, and US crude oil is expected to stabilize at $55 a barrel. PX downstream market has been supported, prices are still rising trend; next week, under TDI supply and demand game, expected volume contraction, there is no lack of small potential for growth, demand has improved, toluene market is strong next week.

SITUATION: Shanghai International Energy Trading Center SC1908 opened at 433.5 yuan/barrel, with a maximum of 445 yuan/barrel, a minimum of 432.3 yuan/barrel and a closing price of 439.5 yuan/barrel, up 13.8 yuan/barrel from the previous trading day, an increase of 3.24%. Volume fell to 444.5 million hands, while position decreased by 3,798 to 46,746 hands.

Macroscopic information: 1. On Friday (June 21), the Central Bank of China announced that the intermediate price of RMB against the US dollar was 6.8472, up 333 basis points from the previous trading day.

Industry chain information: 1. Iranian Revolutionary Guard shot down an American UAV in Iranian airspace, which intensified tensions between the United States and Iran. U.S. President Trump called Iran’s shooting down of U.S. military UAVs “a very big mistake”. Iran responded that the UAV was spying in Iranian airspace. 2. Saudi Arabia’s Foreign Minister said Thursday (June 20) that Iran has created a serious situation and threatened the global oil supply with its aggression. Saudi Arabia added that it would then consult with its allies; both the United States and Saudi Arabia accused Iran of having attacked oil tankers near the Strait of Hormuz, but Tehran denied involvement.

Spot price: Oman crude oil spot price on June 20 was 62.59 US dollars per barrel, up 1.4 US dollars per barrel from the previous day (RMB exchange rate on that day was 430.7 RMB yuan per barrel); Shengli crude oil spot price was 56.24 US dollars per barrel, up 1.17 US dollars per barrel from the previous day.

Warehouse receipt inventory: The number of warehouses designated by Shanghai International Energy Exchange Center for delivery is 3066,000 barrels, which is unchanged from the previous trading day.

Summary of viewpoints: International crude oil futures prices have risen sharply, Asian market continues to rise, Brent crude oil futures prices are at 64.9 US dollars per barrel, WTI crude oil futures prices are at 57.3 US dollars per barrel, Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil prices are at about 7.6 US dollars per barrel, Shanghai crude oil futures prices have risen sharply, about 0.7 US dollars per barrel than Brent crude oil. The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates unchanged and the tone of its policy statement shifted to the pigeon; China and the United States are expected to resume trade negotiations, ease trade concerns and revive risk sentiment to boost the atmosphere of the oil market; Saudi Arabia said that OPEC and other non-OPEC oil-producing countries should extend their production reduction agreements, and OPEC is close to reaching agreement on extending their production reduction agreements; the OPEC meeting was set to be held in early July, and Russia has not yet made a statement on extending production reduction. State. EIA data showed that U.S. crude oil inventories fell more than expected last week, with U.S. crude oil production falling by 100,000 barrels to 12.2 million barrels per day; tensions between the United States and Iran intensified, Iran shot down a U.S. military UAV, the market was worried about the risk of military conflict, and geopolitical tensions warmed up the atmosphere of the oil market. Technically, the contract of SC1908 has risen sharply, with the average of 5 days at the futures station and the regional pressure of 445-450 above, and the futures price of short-term Shanghai crude oil shows a volatile upward trend. Operationally, we recommend 425-450 yuan/barrel interval trading.

Price Trend

The potassium sulphate market has maintained a strong trend this week, according to the price monitoring of business associations.

II. Market Analysis

The market trend of resource-based potassium sulphate is general, the Luo potassium plant is overhauled, but the market supply is sufficient. At present, the arrival price of 52% powder is more than 2680-2700 yuan/ton. Although traders indicated that after the overhaul of Rok, they intend to raise the market price, but in the case of limited downstream demand, the price did not rise moderately.

Mannheim potassium sulfate price and start-up rate in the southwest and northwest regions have not changed much, and the sales situation is still acceptable, but the false high quotation has fallen back. At present, in the traditional high-level market in the southwest, the actual factory price of 52% water-soluble powder is only 3000 yuan. Prices have risen slightly in Hebei due to lack of supply.

Mannheim plant has a relatively high start-up rate, but the stock in the plant has not increased substantially. The production of the plant is mainly 52% water-soluble potassium sulfate, and the sales situation is still acceptable, but the price of 50% powder is low, and there are many stocks. The price of potassium sulfate is supported by the high content of potassium chloride and inverted hydrochloric acid. However, the downstream compound fertilizer gradually enters the off-season and starts to shrink at a low level, with the demand leveling off.

3. Future Market Forecast

Potassium sulphate analyst of business association thinks: entering the off-season, the market of potassium sulphate will continue to be stable in the short term.

I. Trend analysis

According to the data monitoring of business associations, this week (6.10-6.14) domestic cis-butadiene rubber prices fell slightly, at the beginning of the week, the price was 11550 yuan/ton, and at the end of the week, the price was 11487 yuan/ton, the overall decline was 0.54%.

II. Market Analysis

Petrochemical ex-factory price: This week (6.10-6.14), the ex-factory price of domestic cis-butadiene rubber petrochemical plants was reduced by 200 yuan/ton, and as of June 14, the ex-factory price of cis-butadiene rubber in Daqing Petrochemical Company was 11,500 yuan/ton.

Rubber import and export: In May 2019, China imported 507,000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber, a decrease of 8.98% in ring ratio, and 263.5 tons in January-May. Compared with the same period last year, it decreased by 3.5%.

Raw materials: raw material butadiene prices fell slightly this week, the cost of cis-butadiene rubber prices formed a negative. Butadiene dropped 2.33% at 8,590 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 8,390 yuan/ton at the end of the week, according to the business association.

Demand: According to the statistics bureau, the output of domestic rubber tyres in April 2019 was 73.758 million, down 0.8% from the same period last year; the output of domestic rubber tyres in January-April was 26.633 million, down 3.6% from the same period last year.

3. Prospects for the Future Market

Xu Xiaokun, an analyst with business associations, believes that at present, on the one hand, the price of upstream butadiene has fallen, which has a negative effect on the price of synthetic rubber, on the other hand, the downstream market of rubber has continued to be weak, which has created a negative atmosphere for cis-butadiene rubber as a whole. In the later period, the market of cis-butadiene rubber will remain weak and volatile.

Price Trend

According to the monitoring data of business associations, the recent domestic market decline of organosilicon DMC has spread to a larger extent. At the end of May, the market quotations of several major individual enterprises dropped substantially, and the lowest price has fallen below the threshold of 20,000 yuan/ton. On June 4, several agents quoted about 1,000 yuan/ton. On June 6, the lowest quotation of organosilicon DMC fell by about 17,000 yuan/ton.

II. Market Analysis

Products: At this stage, the domestic silicone DMC market shows a weak operation. As of June 6, the market price of DMC has dropped by about 16% compared with mid-May, and the current price has dropped to the lowest level in nearly two years.

Industry chain: At present, the strength of new orders of single manufacturers has declined, and the overall start-up rate of single factories is still at a high level. In May, the average start-up rate of single factories is about 80%. Some single factories arranged the overhaul of equipment from late May to early June. Higher start-up rate of individual enterprises also has a certain impact on prices, and the support for downstream products tends to be weak.

3. Future Market Forecast

Analysts of business association Silicone DMC believe that the demand of Silicone DMC is in the off-season at present, and the competition of Silicone DMC market will still be fierce in the coming June. It is expected that the price of Silicone DMC will remain stable or adjust slightly in the future, which may be affected by the start-up rate of single manufacturers and the demand of upstream and downstream products.

I. Trend analysis

According to the data of business associations, the market of cis-butadiene rubber was mainly weak in May. At the beginning of the month, the price was 11550 yuan/ton. At the end of the month, the price fell slightly to 11362 yuan/ton, and the overall price fell by 1.62% at the end of the month compared with the beginning of the month.

II. Market Analysis

Petrochemical ex-factory price: According to the business association, as of May 31, Daqing Petrochemical cis-butadiene rubber ex-factory price 11,550 yuan/ton.

As far as installation is concerned, according to business associations, two sets of 160,000 tons/year high cis-butadiene rubber units in Daqing Petrochemical Company are in normal operation with a load of about 90%; Qilu Petrochemical Company is in full negative operation with a load of 70,000 tons/year high cis-butadiene rubber unit; Yanshan Petrochemical Company is in normal operation with a load of 80% and a stock of cis-butadiene about 1100 tons.

Demand: The main downstream tire production of synthetic rubber declined year-on-year, to a certain extent, forming a negative impact on the price of cis-butadiene rubber. According to Statistics Bureau data, in April 2019, the output of domestic rubber tyres was 73.758 million, down 0.8% from the same period last year; in January-April, the output of domestic rubber tyres was 26.06.33 million, down 3.6% from the same period last year.

Raw material: The rising price of raw material supports the price of cis-butadiene rubber. Butadiene prices rose in May, 7,834 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 8,540 yuan/ton at the end of the month, an overall increase of 9.01%.

On the import side: China imported 557,000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) in April 2019, a decrease of 4.13% compared with the previous year; from January to April 2019, China imported 212.8 million tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), an increase of 2.3% over the previous year.

3. Prospects for the Future Market

Xu Xiaokun, an analyst with business associations, believes that on the one hand, the higher price of raw material butadiene supports the price of cis-butadiene rubber; on the other hand, the market demand of downstream tires has not improved significantly, which is not conducive to the overall cis-butadiene rubber. However, some petrochemical manufacturers plan to carry out plant overhauls in June, or to some extent, stimulate the price of cis-butadiene.

Price Trend

According to the data of the business associations’big list, some enterprises have slightly increased the price of pure benzene at the beginning of this month. Domestic price changes of pure benzene are concentrated at the end of this month, and the price of enterprises has increased slightly. At the beginning of this month, the price of pure benzene ranged from 4300 to 4450 yuan/ton. At the end of this month, the price of pure benzene ranged from 4300 to 4500 yuan/ton, with a monthly increase of 0.45%. The highest price of this month appeared from May 30 to 31.

II. Analytical Review

1. Crude oil: Brent crude oil and U.S. crude oil prices in May showed a general trend of high at the beginning of the month and low at the end of the month. Fearing that the escalation of trade disputes will restrain economic growth, the decline of US stock market will drag down the atmosphere of oil market, and the decline of crude oil futures in Europe and the United States will be affected by a combination of factors, starting in late May.

2. Products: At the beginning of this month, some enterprises made small adjustments to pure benzene. Domestic price changes of pure benzene were mainly concentrated at the end of the month, and the price of pure benzene rose slightly. At the beginning of this month, domestic pure phenyl has not changed much, pure benzene inventory has been reduced, but although the market trading atmosphere is light, prices are strong as a whole, low-cost resources are difficult to find. The price of pure benzene has been rising steadily and slightly since the end of this month. Pure benzene inventories have been reduced again, and the reduction has been enlarged compared with the earlier period. The market is slightly encouraged. Prices began to rise at the end of the month, but the increase is limited by the current low price of hydrobenzene. Some of Sinochem’s enterprises parked and repaired in the middle of this month, which supported the price of pure benzene.

3. Downstream: Aniline prices in the lower reaches of this month have basically stabilized after the beginning of the month, which has little support for the price of pure benzene; maleic anhydride shows a downward trend this month, which does not support the price of pure benzene; acetone shows a downward trend as a whole this month, but also does not support the price of pure benzene.

3. Future Market Forecast

1. Crude oil: Concerned about the economic restraint of trade disputes and the weakness of market economy, oil prices may continue to show a weak trend in June.

2. Domestic market: In June-July, the overhaul load of factories has been increasing. The upside-down of internal and external plates in the early period may lead to a substantial reduction in the arrival of goods in June. In addition to the hot weather, the reservoir area has the consideration of lowering the safe liquid level. It is expected that the supply or a certain reduction will support the price of subsequent pure benzene.

Considering comprehensively, it is expected that pure benzene will continue to increase steadily or slightly in June.