At the beginning of the week, on the 30th, according to the monitoring of the business association, the domestic liquid ammonia market was stable, the enterprises suspended the pace of downward adjustment, and the northern region was stable. On the 30th, the rise and fall of liquid ammonia was 0. At the beginning of the week, most manufacturers’ quotations were flat at the end of last week. Some enterprises in Shandong, the main production area, experienced a continuous decline on the last Wednesday. This week, the prices in the northwest region remained stable. At present, there is abundant performance of partial ammonia, especially some factories in Shandong The supply of goods is relatively loose, and the pressure of enterprises’ shipment is increasing. However, the manufacturers with large ammonia quantity are mainly stable in price, and they are going to sell goods one after another. The main quotation in Shandong is 2850-2950 yuan / ton.

In North China, the liquid ammonia is also stable, and the lack of demand leads to the slow delivery of liquid ammonia. After urea conversion, the ammonia quantity is controlled. The inventory pressure of the enterprise is slightly relieved. At present, there are many downriver stoppages, and the main quotation in North China is 2800 yuan / ton.

The pressure of environmental protection in Hebei is still not negligible, which leads to the majority of enterprises limiting production. The shutdown of large downstream enterprises, such as China and Afghanistan, leads to weak demand in the downstream, many enterprises accumulating in the warehouse, and no significant change in price. The mainstream quotation in Hebei is 2800-2850 yuan / ton.

At the beginning of the week, the market in Central China also stabilized. The delivery pressure in Hubei was slightly eased compared with that in the previous week. Due to the impact of environmental protection pressure, the price in Henan was more profitable. At present, the liquid ammonia market is full of negative atmosphere and weak operation. The mainstream quotation in Henan is 2700 yuan / ton.

From the perspective of the future market, the business community believes that the current market has maintained a narrow range of adjustment, with enterprises mainly selling products at guaranteed prices, some of which have given way to profits, most of the devices have been converted to urea production, and the output of liquid ammonia has been controlled to decline, so as to balance the overstock of manufacturers’ inventory. It is expected that the market will continue to maintain a weak position in the short term, mainly affected by the high ammonia volume in most regions, and the possibility of continuing to explore low is not ruled out.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business association, the anhydrous hydrofluoric acid Market in 2019 shows a “W” trend. In 2019, the price of hydrofluoric acid dropped significantly. The price of anhydrous hydrofluoric acid at the beginning of the year was 13625 yuan / ton, and the price at the end of the year was 10240 yuan / ton, with a 24.84% drop. According to the price trend chart, the lowest price of the year appeared on November 19, with an average market price of 9600 yuan / ton, and the highest price of the year appeared At the beginning of the year, the average market price is 13625 yuan / ton, and the maximum amplitude of hydrofluoric acid Market in 2019 is 41.93%.

2、 Market analysis

The price trend of hydrofluoric acid products in 2019 can be roughly divided into four stages: the first stage is from January to early April, during which the market price of hydrofluoric acid falls sharply; the second stage is from mid April to mid July, during which the market price of hydrofluoric acid rebounds and rises; the third stage is from late July to mid November, during which the market price of hydrofluoric acid fluctuates and falls; the fourth stage is from the end of November to the end of November, during which the market price of hydrofluoric acid falls sharply The specific market trend is as follows:

In the first stage, from January to the first ten days of April, the market price of hydrofluoric acid dropped sharply. The domestic price of anhydrous hydrofluoric acid dropped from 13625 yuan / ton at the beginning of the year to 10100 yuan / ton in the first ten days of April, a drop of 25.87%. The price of hydrofluoric acid dropped sharply. First, the domestic hydrofluoric acid market maintenance device was restarted, and the on-site hydrofluoric acid spot supply increased. The enterprise reported that the on-site hydrofluoric acid spot supply was sufficient at present, the factory’s ex factory market was not good, and the market price of hydrofluoric acid fell. Second, the negative impact of upstream raw material fluorite products, fluorite plant construction has increased, and the operating rate of fluorite plant in Inner Mongolia and Hebei provinces has increased. As a whole, the supply of fluorite has increased, the price of fluorite has dropped significantly, the sharp decline of upstream fluorite price has a greater negative impact on hydrofluoric acid, and the market price of hydrofluoric acid has dropped significantly. The third is the cold trading market in the downstream refrigerant market of the terminal. The R22 refrigerant unit starts at 70%, and the unit starts at a low rate in the R22 market. The factory offer price of bulk water of the main production enterprise is between 16000-18500 yuan / ton, but the production enterprise does not have bulk water in stock, and most of them are small quantities of steel cylinders. In addition, the actual market demand is low, and the trend of shipping market is poor. The market price of R134a in China is slightly lower, the unit operating rate of production enterprises has not changed much, the market demand for refrigerants is weakened, and manufacturers mainly export their products. However, the transaction price in the site has not changed much, and the merchants purchase on demand. In the near future, due to the impact of equipment maintenance, the market demand for upstream hydrofluoric acid has weakened, and the market price of hydrofluoric acid continues to decline.

In the second stage, from mid April to mid July, the market price of hydrofluoric acid rebounded and rose from 10100 yuan / ton in mid April to 12080 yuan / ton on July 20, an increase of 19.6%. There are two main reasons for the price rise of hydrofluoric acid in this period. One is that the unit operating rate of domestic refrigerant industry has increased slightly. For the upstream raw material hydrofluoric acid market demand has increased, the domestic R134a market price has increased slightly, the unit operating rate of production enterprises has not changed much, the refrigerant market demand has increased, the downstream market has improved, and the hydrofluoric acid market price has rebounded and increased. Secondly, the fluorite installation has been started normally in the near future. Generally speaking, the supply of fluorite is a little tight. However, the fluorite market is greatly affected by environmental protection, and the supply of fluorite in the site is a little tight. The price of fluorite of some manufacturers is rising, and the market price of fluorite is rising, which brings strong cost support for the price of downstream hydrofluoric acid market, and the market price of hydrofluoric acid is rising.

In the third stage, from late July to mid November, the market price of hydrofluoric acid fluctuated and fell, from 12080 yuan / ton in late July to 9600 yuan / ton in late November, a drop of 20.53%. In the near future, the operation rate of hydrofluoric acid in China is more than 60%. Enterprises report that there is sufficient stock supply of hydrofluoric acid in the site at present, and the situation of goods distribution in the site in the near future is poor. In the near future, due to the poor downstream demand, the prices of some hydrofluoric acid manufacturers continue to decline. In the near future, the start-up of downstream refrigerant product units is at a low level, and the demand for upstream fluorite and hydrofluoric acid is poor. In the near future, the trading market of downstream refrigerants is general, and the price of hydrofluoric acid products fluctuates. In the near future, the transaction market of downstream refrigerants of the terminal is generally, the operation rate of R22 refrigerants is 50%, and the operation rate of R22 market devices is temporarily stable. The factory offer price of bulk water of the main production enterprises is 12000-14000 yuan / ton, but the production enterprises do not have bulk water in stock, most of which are small quantities of steel cylinders. In addition, the actual demand side of the market changes little, and the shipping market is general. The price trend of R134a market in China is not good, the unit operating rate of production enterprises remains low, the market demand for refrigerants is general, and the manufacturers mainly export their products. However, the market price of hydrofluoric acid keeps declining due to the normal supply of goods and poor downstream demand. Recently, affected by the common negative effects of fluorite and refrigerant industry, the market price of hydrofluoric acid dropped as much as 20% in four months.

In the fourth stage, from the end of November to the end of the year, the market price of hydrofluoric acid will rise slightly. In the near future, the price of fluorite upstream of hydrofluoric acid will remain high. The factory price of domestic fluorite is 2861.11 yuan / ton. The domestic fluorite unit will be started normally. The mine and flotation unit in the field will be started normally. The supply of fluorite in the field will be normal. In the near future, the price of hydrofluoric acid downstream will remain low. For the fluorite market, fluorite will be purchased on demand The market price of fluorite is stable for the time being. In the near future, the downstream units are under normal operation, the spot supply of fluorite in the site is sufficient, and the downstream demand of the terminal is general, which leads to the temporary stability of the market price trend. The high price of fluorite brings certain cost support to the hydrofluoric acid market, and the price trend of hydrofluoric acid market is stable. However, in the near future, fluorite supply has decreased, fluorite prices remain high, and the market price of hydrofluoric acid has been affected. In the near future, the transaction market of the downstream refrigerant market of the terminal has increased slightly. At present, the automobile industry has entered the cycle of goods preparation. The supply of R22 in China is tight. The market price of R22 in China has increased. The starting load of the manufacturer’s production unit is still not high. The supply capacity of the market source has declined. The downstream air conditioning manufacturer has maintained the demand, but the supply is tight. The price of domestic large enterprises is mainly Flow rose to 13500-14500 yuan / ton. The price trend of domestic R134a market slightly increased, and the unit operating rate of production enterprises remained at a low level. At present, the automobile industry has entered the stock cycle, and the demand for R134a has slightly improved. At present, the supply of R134a in the market is slightly tight, the price has slightly increased, the downstream market has improved, and the market price of hydrofluoric acid has rebounded higher.

The price trend of domestic hydrofluoric acid industry chain in 2019 is as follows:

In 2019, the market of fluorine chemical industry is weak. From raw material fluorite to hydrofluoric acid, the downstream refrigerant industry has different procedures of decline. The fluorine chemical industry is in recession, the terminal demand has not improved significantly, and the market trend is declining.

3、 Future forecast

Chen Ling, a hydrofluoric acid analyst with business agency, believes that in the short term, the hydrofluoric acid plant will start normally, the supply of goods in the hydrofluoric acid market will be normal, and the market will be generally on the market. In addition, there are many units in the downstream refrigerant industry to be overhauled, so the demand for hydrofluoric acid is limited. However, the firm’s intention to hold up the price is obvious, and the price may maintain a slight upward trend at the beginning of 2020. In the long run, with the advent of the refrigerant industry peak season, the domestic refrigerant industry manufacturers will prepare goods and gradually start the maintenance of the refrigerant device. At that time, the market price of hydrofluoric acid may rise, and the price may remain at about 13000 yuan / ton. With the end of the sales peak season in the refrigeration industry, it is expected that the upward pressure of hydrofluoric acid market will increase in the second and third quarters, or the price will gradually fall, and the price is expected to gradually fall to the level of 9500 yuan / ton. In the fourth quarter, the price may rise, and the price is expected to be 10000-12000 yuan / ton.

1、 Price quotation

According to the data of business agency (100ppi. Com), on December 11, 2019, the average price of China’s natural rubber (standard I) in the domestic market was 12250 yuan / ton, December 18 was the highest price in the middle of 12274 yuan / ton, and the lowest price in the middle was 11970 yuan / ton in the 20th, down 2.29% in 10 days. In the 2019 all latex (Treasure Island) trend monitored by the business association, 12290 on December 6 is the highest price of the year so far, while 12274 yuan / ton on December 18 is the second highest price. From 18th to 20th of this month, the price of rubber fell by 300 yuan / ton in two days, which was a sharp decline with a large range. It is reported that the reason is that the local rubber volume in Kunming, Yunnan Province is in short supply, and the domestic import volume and planned warehousing volume are greatly increased, leading to a bearish market. The price of rubber dropped by 300 yuan / ton in three days from 18th to 20th, a drop of 2.44%.

Two. Trend analysis

Compared with the highest price, the price of natural rubber, which has fallen by three quarters, has been fluctuating for more than half a year from 10000 yuan / ton to 12200 yuan / ton in the low price range around 2000 yuan / ton. As a whole, there are three times of high price: March 4, 12070 yuan / ton is the first high price, June 11, 12020 is the second high price, November 25, 12116 yuan / ton is the current high price in the year The second downward trough: 10700 yuan / ton at the end of April and the beginning of May is the first trough price, and 10260 yuan / ton at the end of July and the beginning of August is the lowest price to this year. Since then, it has been April. Rubber prices fluctuated in the second half of the year, and experienced the traditional peak season of “golden nine silver ten”. In addition, due to the impact of rainstorms and fungal diseases in Southeast Asia, the production of natural rubber was limited, and the market of natural rubber rose to a certain extent. In November, China’s domestic region began to enter the cut-off period, and the fund gradually favored natural rubber at this time. The price of natural rubber rose sharply at the beginning of the second half of the year, and the price of natural rubber finally stopped falling and rose. The fund was concerned Degree of increase, disk strength pull up. Since then, the trend has been fluctuating. After a short-term correction, it began to rise again in December, reaching the highest price level in 2019 on the 6th. The market generally believes that the production reduction in 2019 will be inevitable due to the impact of drought, diseases and insect pests in domestic and foreign production areas, which coincides with the domestic cut season and is bullish on the market. On the 18th, hearing the news of warehouse explosion, the domestic inventory rose month on month, and the import volume and general trade warehouse planned to increase in December , the accumulation of Treasury continued to lead to a sharp drop in prices, so far prices have continued to fluctuate slightly downward.

3、 Future forecast

In general, the rubber price in December 2019 rose and fell in a short period. In terms of future market trend, domestic futures delivery inventory is at a relatively low level in this year because it is still the domestic production reduction season and there is no big change in downstream demand. The possibility of a sharp decline is very small. After the rapid decline of the market, the inventory rebounds demand.

【1】 Kola potash project

In January 2019, Kore potash announced the latest feasibility study terms of kola potash project in the Republic of Congo. The project is expected to be developed for 22 years and can produce about 2.2 million tons of potash fertilizer annually.

【2】 Belarus’s second potash mining industry started construction

In February 2019, iooo slavkaliy, a Belarusian company, has set up 11 facilities in lyuban District, Minsk state, which is the second investment project for mining potash ore and producing potash fertilizer in Belarus.

【3】 In 2018, Belarus produced 12.1 million tons of potash fertilizer

In March 2019, according to the statistics of the National Statistical Commission of Belarus, the export of potash fertilizer in Belarus increased by 2.7% to 10.84 million tons (KCl) in 2018 compared with that in 2017, converted to 6.61 million tons of K2O. In 2018, Belarusian potash company produced 12.1 million tons of potash fertilizer, a record high in recent years.

【4】 Sirius mining and JPMorgan Chase reach an agreement

In April 2019, Sirius mining reached an agreement with Wall Street giant JPMorgan to provide up to $3.8 billion in financing in the form of bonds and credit. JPMorgan will underwrite a $400 million stock placement for Sirius mining at prices ranging from 15-18 pence per share and provide $2.5 billion in revolving credit or overdraft loans to leverage its balance sheet, with JPMorgan planning to work with other lenders.

“These loans will be used for North Yorkshire to build the woodsmith polyhalite mine, a potassium salt used for plant fertilizers,” Sirius said.

【5】 Signing of lease option agreement at grays harbour

In June 2019, grays harbour is another step closer to becoming the main export port of potash fertilizer. At the meeting of the committee, the port authority authorized Gary Nelson, executive director, to sign a lease option agreement on BHP’s proposal to serve as a potash fertilizer export facility at Hoquiam 3.

【6】 Belarus will supply 450000 tons of potash to Bangladesh

In July 2019, Yelena kudryavets, director general of the Belarusian potash Corporation (BPC), and Fazle Wahid khondaker, chairman of Bangladesh Agricultural Development Corporation (BADC), signed a memorandum and a contract for the delivery of Belarusian potassium chloride to Bangladesh in the next financial year.

【7】 More than 40000 tons of fertilizer are stacked outdoors

In September 2019, due to the full warehouse of Bangladesh Agricultural Development Company, 40000 tons of fertilizer had to be stored outdoors for one year. These fertilizers include triphosphate, diamine phosphate and potassium chloride, from Morocco, Canada and Saudi Arabia. The fertilizer was imported by six contractors from mongla port and transported to Khulna city.

【8】 Uralkali signs annual contract with IPL in India

In October 2019, urakali trading, a subsidiary of uralkali, a Russian potash producer, signed the first major potash supply contract for 2019-2020 with IPL, an Indian buyer. It is reported that the price of standard potassium chloride in the new contract is about 280 US dollars / ton CFR, including 180 day letter of credit, which is about 10 US dollars / ton lower than last year’s contract price. Uralkali has agreed to ship a total of about 400000 tons to IPL branch 6 by the end of March next year.

【9】 Germany K + s plans to cut another 200000 tons of potassium chloride production

In November 2019, K + s, a German potash producer, said that in view of the fact that the current international potash market has been in a downturn and supply exceeds demand, the company will further reduce the output of 200000 tons of potassium chloride, mainly from zielitz mine, a potash mine with a production capacity of 1.5 million tons / year.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, as of December 20, the average market price of butanone was around 9300 yuan / ton, down 100 yuan / ton, or 1.06% compared with December 16.

2、 Market analysis

Products: since December, the butanone market has been on the rise from the bottom offer at the beginning of the month. There is little stock on hand. The factory offer continues to rise. Most factories do not have stock on hand. As of Monday (16th), the average price of the market offer rose to 9400 yuan / ton. On the 17th, the overall offer of the market remained firm, with a small amount of supply added to East China. The market eased, with a small number of factories The prices of butanone were slightly reduced. On the 18th, the butanone market was relatively stable. Due to the small amount of spot stock and the stable offer of many factories, the factory price of Shandong Lishu chemical butanone was slightly reduced by 100 yuan / ton and 9300 yuan / ton (purified water) was implemented. From the 19th to the present, the domestic butanone market has been dominated by the high level. Due to the small amount of spot stock, the factory price is stable and firm, and most factories still have no inventory Before that, the reference price of butanol market in East China was around 9450 yuan / ton; the reference price of butanol market in North China was around 9450 yuan / ton; the reference price of butanol market in South China was around 9550 yuan / ton.

Industrial chain: this week, the liquefied gas market is rising and running as a whole. At present, the price of liquefied gas market in East China tends to stabilize after rising at the beginning of the week. The mainstream price is about 4330-4350 yuan / ton, and the market transaction is normal. The price of liquefied gas market in North China is stable, and the mainstream price is about 4300-4500 yuan / ton, and the market transaction is normal. The price of liquefied gas market in Shandong is rising, and the mainstream price is 4200-4400 yuan / ton Left and right, the market transaction is normal.

3、 Future forecast

According to the analysis of the data division of the business association, it is expected that after the inventory volume of butanone market has been eased slightly in the near future, the market will be mainly consolidated in a narrow range.

I. price trend:

On December 14, crude benzene commodity index was 73.94, unchanged from yesterday, down 43.92% from 131.84 (2013-01-28), the highest point in the cycle, and up 88.38% from 39.25, the lowest point on December 22, 2014. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now).

II. Market analysis:

This week (12.09-12.13) the domestic crude benzene market was raised. The average market price at the beginning of the week was 4410 yuan / ton, and at the end of the week was 4721.67 yuan / ton, up 7.07%.

Domestic market: this week’s strong interest in crude benzol led to a sharp rise in crude benzol prices. By Friday, the price of crude benzol in Shandong Province had risen to about 4930 yuan / ton, up 450 yuan / ton compared with last week. This rise in crude benzol price was mainly boosted by multiple positive factors. This week’s external price of pure benzol continued to rise, and Sinopec raised its listing price to 5750 yuan / ton. Recently, due to the impact of haze weather, the environmental protection in North China and surrounding areas has been upgraded, some coking enterprises have started to reduce, and the supply of crude benzene in the plant is slightly tight compared with that in the earlier stage. The downstream hydrogenated benzene enterprises have started to operate stably in the near future and have a good demand for crude benzene. Multiple favorable factors are concentrated, greatly boosting the price of crude benzene. This week, the bidding price of crude benzene in Shandong Province rose collectively, about 460 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: crude oil: this week, crude oil rose in shock due to OPEC’s deepening production reduction and favorable trade prospects. WTI was up 1.49% and Brent was up 1.19% compared with December 6. Pure benzene: this week, the port inventory of pure benzene continued to decline. In addition, the domestic spot supply of pure benzene was limited, and the market of pure benzene in Asia was forced to empty in January, which caused the price focus of pure benzene in Asia to move up, driving the domestic price of pure benzene higher. The price of pure benzene will be favorable, and Sinopec’s listing price of pure benzene will be increased to 5750 yuan / ton.

3. Trend forecast:

Next week, the progress of the trade agreement will boost the market smoothly. It is expected that the oil price will be boosted next week. At present, the domestic spot supply of pure benzene is tight, which will support the market in a short term. However, this week’s rise is too fast, and the downstream pressure increases sharply. Although the downstream hydrobenzene keeps rising slightly, the current cost pressure is still large. At the end of December, some units have maintenance plans, and it is expected that there will be a small callback space in the crude benzene market next week, mainly small shocks.

I. price trend

In this week’s (12.09-12.13), the “m” trend of the domestic 1 × tin ingot Market, the average price of the domestic market at the beginning of the week was 139062.5 yuan / ton, and at the end of the week was 140037.50 yuan / ton, up 0.7%.

On December 13, the tin commodity index was 71.33, down 0.41 points from yesterday, 28.85% lower than the highest point in the cycle, 100.25 (2011-09-05), and 66.43% higher than the lowest point, 42.86, on December 9, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now).

II. Market trend analysis

Domestic market: this week’s futures market lunxichong fell back, Monday and Tuesday continued last week’s strong, Wednesday into the high oscillation trend. The main trend of Shanghai tin this week is from 2001 contract to 2005 contract. Overall, the trend is weak. Driven by the futures market, the spot market rose at the beginning of the week and fell at the end of the week. In terms of transportation and investment, due to the high price, the transportation and investment are limited, but the market heat is rising. The procurement is mainly rigid demand procurement. As of Friday, the mainstream price of spot tin market was 138500-141000 yuan / ton.

Nonferrous Industry: leading by the strong breakthrough of copper, the basic metals have stepped out of the low-lying area and kept rising. At the beginning of the week, the market continued the positive sentiment brought by the non-agricultural data on Friday. The announcement of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate meeting held confidence in the future economic development and long positions increased into the market. After the week, the European Central Bank’s interest rate meeting stated that the loose policy is still the same, and the Conservative Party of the British general election is set. Next year, 1 In May, the brexit is expected to be completed, the pound soared, the US dollar fell below the 97 point mark, and the base metal soared again. The market expects that the US will postpone the imposition of trade tariffs on China’s imported goods. The trade disputes between the two countries may be eased, and the US dollar continues to weaken, which has boosted the strength of the metal market.

III. future prospects

PMI data of various countries will be released next week. The market is expected to recover. The U.S. stock market has set a record high continuously. The U.S. dollar is low and volatile. The macro environment is still optimistic. All basic metals have got rid of the previous low range this week. Under the short market, there is still momentum to continue to rise. The spot is also the last time window for the closing of the last long single transaction of this year It will maintain a strong price trend, so it is easier for the two cities to show a strong trend in the basic metal period.

At the end of the traditional peak season of lead storage enterprises, the operating rate has declined, and the downstream demand of lead battery for electric vehicles and automobile industry has continued to be depressed. The lithium elevator secondary battery in the base station equipment guided by national policies has gradually replaced the lead battery, resulting in a low lead consumption. With the increase of processing cost of primary lead, the output will be released soon, and the supply will be surplus compared with the weak demand.

China’s PMI in November was 50.20, ending six months below the boom and bust line; the US ism manufacturing PMI was 48.10, down slightly; the European manufacturing PMI was 46.90, up slightly; the Japanese manufacturing PMI was 48.90, up slightly on a month on month basis. The outlook for the world economy has not improved significantly.

In October, M2 increased by 8.4% year-on-year, the former value was 8.4%; M1 increased by 3.3% year-on-year, the former value was 3.4%. The difference between M1 and M2 rose slightly on a month on month basis, indicating a slight improvement in investment. In October, RMB loans increased by 1.68 trillion yuan, an increase of 522.2 billion yuan month on month. In October, the total scale of social financing increased by 10.7% year on year, and the growth rate decreased by 0.1% month on month. The level of financing is gradually improving. In October, CPI rose 3.8% year-on-year, with the previous value of 3%; PPI fell 1.6% year-on-year, with the previous value down 1.2%. As pork prices continue to rise, CPI is still likely to rise.

Under the general downward pattern of the global economy, the overall trend of lead price is weak and in an oscillating downward channel.

The increase of processing cost supports the increase of lead ingot smelting

Since the second half of the year, the supply of domestic lead ore has increased and the supply of foreign ore has gradually released. In October 2019, the import volume of domestic lead concentrate was 146000 tons, down 12.9% month on month, up 44.2% year on year; from January to October, the cumulative import volume of lead concentrate was 1354800 tons, up 37.2% year on year. China’s import of lead ore rose sharply.

Since December, the average processing cost of domestic lead concentrate has increased by 150 yuan / ton to 2150 yuan / ton, and the average processing cost of imported lead concentrate has increased by 10 dollars / ton to 115 dollars / dry ton. TC has been at a high level in the past three years, which will increase the profits of the original lead enterprises, stimulate the production of the original lead and support the start-up of the original lead smelting.

On the other hand, due to production losses, the output of recycled lead in the third quarter was lower than expected, but overall, the overall output of recycled lead increased steadily this year. According to the Statistics Bureau, the domestic output of recycled lead in September was 253000 tons, up 52% year on year. From January to September, the cumulative domestic output of recycled lead was 1.761 million tons, up 23.5% year on year. The operating rate of licensed smelters in the three provinces rose 2.8% to 55% on a weekly basis. After the national day, the phased release of environmental protection production restriction reduced the impact of environmental protection policies on lead output, and the supply of renewable lead continued to increase. At present, the profit of recycled lead has risen to a relatively high level of about 1000 yuan / ton, which is expected to further stimulate the growth of the supply of recycled lead.

With the change of supply shortage pattern, the domestic lead price moves down as a whole, and even starts to accumulate inventory. Relevant data shows that the current social inventory level of lead ingots is higher than that of the same period last year.

Lead demand continues to decline due to low consumption

Environmental policies mainly affect the demand for lead. This year, the peak season of electric vehicle battery consumption is not prosperous, and the off-season of consumption has continued since the fourth quarter, and the output of electric vehicle still maintains a negative growth trend. Battery market orders began to weaken, many enterprises began to tighten production. On April 15, 2019, the “safety technical specifications for electric bicycles” officially implemented led to the “lightweight” of batteries, directly reducing the use of lead. Considering that the light-weight technical transformation of battery enterprises can be basically completed in 2020, it is expected that the lead consumption will continue to drop by 50000 tons.

On the whole, automobile consumption has also declined significantly, and automobile production and sales have continued to shrink for more than one year. According to the data released by China Automobile Industry Association, as of October 2019, the cumulative production of domestic automobiles was 20.444 million units, down 10.4% compared with the same period in 2018, which is the 12th consecutive month in which the cumulative negative year-on-year growth of domestic automobile production. In October, automobile production decreased by 2.10% year-on-year, and last month’s value was 6.90%. Auto sales in October decreased by 4.03% year-on-year, compared with 5.15% last month. The continuous downturn has led to the decline of lead in new car batteries.

Although the base station equipment has a substantial growth, but the policy guidance makes the lithium elevator secondary battery gradually replace the lead battery, the lead battery fails to grow, and the Chinese tower will not use the lead battery at all in 2020. All of these factors reduce the demand for lead consumption in the downstream.

In general, due to the increase of processing costs and profits, the supply of primary lead and recycled lead is sufficient. However, the downstream demand for lead, such as electric vehicles and automobiles, is not strong. The national policy guides the lithium elevator secondary battery to gradually replace the lead battery. At present, there is no new growth point of lead consumption. The overall supply exceeds the demand, and the focus of lead price moves down step by step

I. price trend

According to the data monitored by the business agency, on November 30, the domestic carbon black quotation was 7000 yuan / ton, with a slight fluctuation in the price range of 100-300 yuan / ton. This month’s carbon black market mainly fluctuated.

After the carbon black market fell sharply in 2018, it is difficult for the price to rise again. In the first three quarters of 2019, the price fluctuated little and the market did not rise or fall.

II. Market analysis

Industrial chain:

This month, the overall bottom of carbon black and its downstream market has stabilized, the gross profit rate of carbon black products has rebounded on a month on month basis, the operating rate of tire factories has dropped to about 50%, carbon black inventory is difficult to digest, new orders are limited, and the operating rate of some carbon black factories continues to decline. It is difficult to change the loss situation of downstream factories, the overall mentality is relatively negative, and the possibility of further decline in operating rate is not ruled out in the later stage.

listed company:

In the first three quarters of 2019, the net profit of domestic carbon black listed companies all showed a significant negative growth. Black cat’s operating net profit fell by 128.84%, the only one of the four listed companies with negative net profit. Among the listed enterprises, Jinneng technology still has the highest operating revenue and the smallest decline in net profit. Its operating revenue is 6.208 billion yuan, down 2.24% year-on-year; its net profit is 593 million yuan, down 35.94% year-on-year. Shanxi Yongdong is the only private enterprise with a positive growth in its business income, which is 2.133 billion yuan, up 13.42% year on year.

In the first three quarters of 2019, the profits of domestic carbon black enterprises plummeted or even lost money, which was mainly affected by the low delivery price of domestic carbon black, while the low price of carbon black was mainly affected by overcapacity, homogenization and vicious competition, high-temperature coal tar price relative to carbon black price, insufficient consumption power in the automobile industry, low tire market demand, passive bargaining power and poor unity, and low international crude oil price Shock and other factors.

III. future forecast

Carbon black data division of the chemical branch of the business society thinks: carbon black market downturn will continue at the end of the year.

I. price trend

According to the data of the bulk list of business agencies, the market price of propylene fluctuated in a narrow range in November. At the beginning of the month, the average price of enterprises was 7184 yuan / ton, and at the end of the month (November 29), the average price of enterprises was 7035 yuan / ton, with a monthly decline of 2.08%. The high price of this month is 7399 yuan / ton on November 13 and 14; the low price of this month is 6995 yuan / ton on November 28; the monthly amplitude is 5.46%.

II. Analysis and comment

Product: the price of propylene began to decline from the end of October. On the first day, it still fell by 50-100 yuan / ton. By the end of the week, the price began to rise by 150-200 yuan / ton. On the sixth day, the price was generally stable. On the 12th, the price of the enterprise was stable. On the 15th, the price began to decline. On the 19th-22nd, most of the prices were stable, and some of them rose slightly. The price of propylene fell again on the weekend, All the way down about 350 yuan / ton, the price of propylene began to stabilize on the 28th and slightly increased by about 50 yuan / ton on the 29th. At present, the market turnover is still around 6970-7350 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is 7000 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: upstream, influenced by the recent OPEC production reduction policy or the news that it will be extended, the international crude oil market is generally ideal, which has a certain effect on propylene. In the downstream, the PP futures market is also optimistic. The downstream manufacturers start to resume work gradually, the shipment situation improves, and the inventory pressure decreases, which also has a positive impact on propylene.

PP spot fell sharply in November, down 1.95% on a monthly basis, but the market at the end of the month was more ideal, pulling up the propylene market.

In November, the domestic acrylic acid market stabilized in the first half of the month, and rose in the second half of the month, with a monthly increase of 13.46%, which has a positive impact on propylene.

The trend of propylene oxide declined in November and then rose. At the end of the month, it was a monthly high price, with a monthly increase of 3.72% and an amplitude of 5.86%. It was mainly used in the aftermarket or rigid finishing operation, which had a certain pulling effect on propylene.

In November, epichlorohydrin began to fall sharply, and the price went down all the way, with a monthly drop as high as 31.34%. The upward action force was still insufficient, which had a certain impact on the propylene price.

N-butanol also rose in November after a decline. At the end of the month, it was also a high price, with a monthly increase of 1.07% and an amplitude of 2.72%, which had little impact on propylene.

Octanol rose slightly after the decline in November. At the beginning of the month, it was a monthly high price, with a monthly decline of 1.18% and an amplitude of 2.82%, which may have a negative impact on propylene.

In November, the domestic phenol market fell steadily, with monthly high price at the beginning of the month and monthly low price at the end of the month, with a monthly decline of 8.64%. The downward trend slowed down at the end of the month, but it still had a negative impact on propylene market.

In November, the domestic acetone market rose rapidly, with monthly low price at the beginning of the month and monthly high price at the end of the month, with a monthly increase of 40.69%. There are some signs of stabilization in the future market, which has a certain positive impact on propylene.

In November, isopropanol market was affected by upstream acetone market, rising continuously, with a monthly increase of 26.96%, which had a positive impact on propylene.

III. future forecast

According to the propylene analyst of the chemical branch of the business society, on the whole, propylene fell in a ladder like way after rising in November, and rose slightly at the end of the month. The upstream crude oil market is relatively ideal; the downstream operating rate is acceptable, and the shipping pressure is small, so it is expected that the propylene price in Shandong will still rise in the short term.