Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, the domestic POM market is weak and stable this week, and the spot prices of various brands are mainly sideways. As of March 30, the ex factory price reference offer of POM injection molding sample enterprises of business society was about 22000 yuan / ton, up or down – 0.90% compared with the average price level at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

Industrial chain: upstream, the domestic formaldehyde Market in March fluctuated under the support of poor demand and strong cost, with an overall increase compared with the price level at the beginning of the month. At the beginning of the month, methanol, the raw material, was followed up, and then the focus shifted downward due to insufficient operation of downstream plate plants and weak market demand. In the second half of the month, the price of formaldehyde in Shandong is expected to rise slightly.

There is an upstream formaldehyde market, and the cost side support of POM is acceptable. In terms of industry load, the current domestic POM operating rate has limited changes and is still at a high level, and the overall load is still more than 85%. Due to the limited improvement of the arrival at the port, the market supply was still slightly compact in March, and the positive impact on the supply side was still on. However, it is unfavorable for enterprises and businesses to go to the warehouse this month. Although the enterprise’s offer is relatively stable, the business confidence is weakened and the profit order is released at the end of the month to complete the task. Downstream demand continues to be weak, buyers are more resistant to high-priced sources of goods, and are cautious about buying up rather than buying down. Superimposed on the rebound in the number of confirmed domestic health events this month, it affects logistics and transportation in many regions and further reduces demand. There is a strong wait-and-see atmosphere in the field, and the purchase operation is biased towards small orders, which just needs to maintain production.

Future forecast

Business analysts believe that: in March, the domestic POM market fluctuated in a narrow range, the finishing operation, the upstream formaldehyde market has a piece, and the cost support of POM is OK. The on-site supply is slightly tight, the load of downstream enterprises is OK, and there is no large-scale replenishment in procurement. The on-site trading situation is light, the shipment resistance of high-priced goods is large, and the merchants cut prices and take orders. The lack of demand drags the market, the supply side bottoms the spot offer, and the market is tangled. It is expected that the POM price may continue to be weak in the short term.

DBP price shocks stabilized in March

According to the data monitoring of business society, the price of DBP fluctuated and adjusted in March, and the overall DBP market stabilized. As of March 29, the price of DBP was 10866.67 yuan / ton, up 0.93% from 10766.67 yuan / ton on March 1 at the beginning of the month. Overall, the price of DBP stabilized in March, and the plasticizer market fluctuated and stabilized.

In March, the price of n-butanol fluctuated and fell

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the price of n-butanol fluctuated and fell in March, and the market of n-butanol fell. On March 29, the price of n-butanol was 10133.33 yuan / ton, down 3.18% from 10466.67 yuan / ton on March 1 at the beginning of the month. In March, the price of n-butanol in Shandong fell, the cost of DBP fell, and the pressure on the price of DBP increased.

In March, the price of phthalic anhydride rose first and then fell

According to the price monitoring of business society, the price of phthalic anhydride first rose and then fell in March. As of March 29, the price of phthalic anhydride was 8725 yuan / ton, up 8.22% from 8062.50 yuan / ton on March 1 at the beginning of the month. In March, the price of phthalic anhydride rose first and then fell, the cost of DBP rose, the cost support of DBP remained, the rising power of DBP was large, and the downward pressure remained.

Future expectations

DBP data analysts of business agency believe that affected by the Russian Ukrainian crisis, the price of crude oil soared in early March, followed by the price rise of n-butanol and phthalic anhydride in the downstream spot market. Then, with the easing of the conflict, the price of crude oil plummeted, and the price of downstream n-butanol and phthalic anhydride fell. Affected by the epidemic in late October, the price of raw materials first rose and then fell, the cost of plasticizer DBP fluctuated and stabilized, and the price of DBP stabilized. The price of raw materials has stabilized, the cost of DBP has stabilized, and the price shock of DBP is expected to stabilize in the future.

Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, the domestic PA66 market trend fell all the way in March, and the spot prices of various brands decreased significantly. As of March 28, the average ex factory price of PA66 adhesive injection molding sample enterprises of business society was about 31000 yuan / ton, with an increase or decrease of – 8.82% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

Industrial chain: upstream, adipic acid market rose first and then declined this month. In the first half of the month, pure benzene drove adipic acid higher. In the second half of the month, the supply side was abundant and the terminal demand was cautious. The transaction was not ideal, so it was difficult to support the rising price of adipic acid. The operating rate remains at a high level of 75%, and the reservoir pressure is obvious at present. The change of adiponitrile market is limited, but the start-up of adiponitrile domestic production line is approaching, there is bad news on the spot price in the short term, the level of port arrival is general, and the overall support effect on PA66 spot is limited.

The price of adipic acid, the upstream raw material, fell, the change of adiponitrile market was limited, and the cost side support of PA66 fell. In terms of industrial operating rate in March, the load level of domestic PA66 enterprises was high and sideways. In terms of port, the inventory position is acceptable, and the arrival volume of overseas goods is general. In terms of demand, at present, terminal enterprises take goods to follow up, prefer to just need to maintain production, and have strong resistance to high price goods. In addition, domestic health events rebounded in mid and late March, affecting logistics in many places, shrinking the demand of some downstream factories in China, and reducing the shipment fluency of merchants. In March, the overall transaction resistance on the floor was too large, the seller’s mentality was poor, and the gradual price reduction and order taking operation ran through the whole month.

Future forecast

Business analysts believe that the spot price of PA66 fell weakly in March. The improvement of adiponitrile market on the raw material side was limited, adipic acid market rose and fell below the average price at the beginning of the month, and PA66 cost side support weakened. On the supply side, the load of PA66 enterprise is high, and the inventory pressure of enterprises and midstream is high. The demand side has a deep resistance to the supply of high price goods, the on-site trading continues to be sluggish, and the market momentum is insufficient. It is expected that PA66 may maintain a weak market in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to commodity data monitoring, the price of yellow phosphorus in Yunnan and Guizhou decreased this month. The average price of yellow phosphorus at the beginning of the month was 39333.33 yuan / ton, and the average price at the end of the month was 37000 yuan / ton. The price decreased within the month by 5.93%.

2、 Market analysis

The price of yellow phosphorus first fell and then rose this month. On the whole, the price of Yunnan Guizhou yellow phosphorus decreased. Due to the rapid rise in the price of yellow phosphorus in February, the downstream has been more resistant to the high price of yellow phosphorus since March. The inquiry is general and the purchase is cautious. The price of yellow phosphorus manufacturers has fallen all the way. Until late March, the price of yellow phosphorus began to rebound from the bottom due to the news of security inspection and production reduction in Guizhou. Up to now, the mainstream quotation of yellow phosphorus is about 37000 yuan / ton. The overall market trading situation of yellow phosphorus improved, and yellow phosphorus enterprises mainly issued early orders. The downstream just needs replenishment, the spot is tight, and the transaction price of new orders is higher.

In terms of phosphate rock, since March, the domestic phosphate rock market has ushered in two significant increases. At the beginning of March, the domestic phosphate rock market operated steadily at a high level, the phosphate rock supply side was tight as a whole, and the trading atmosphere in the phosphate rock yard was good. On the 10th, the domestic phosphorus ore as a whole ushered in the first rise in March. Subsequently, the market continued to operate at a high level, with good demand in the downstream market of the terminal, further supporting the market. On the 21st, the domestic phosphorus ore market was close to the high-end again, and the market price of 30% grade phosphorus ore was around 680-750 yuan / ton. At present, the supply in the phosphate rock quarry continues to be tight, the downstream demand is good, and the trading atmosphere is mild. p>

In terms of coke, according to the monitoring data of business society, the current reference price of coke is 3338.00, up 21.91% compared with March 1 (2738.00). The coke market is in strong operation this month. The current operating rate of coking enterprises has increased to a certain extent, but the overall operation rate is still low. At present, the coke inventory in the plant is generally low. Affected by the difficulty of automobile transportation, the overall coke supply is still tight. In terms of downstream steel mills, the overall production of steel mills has resumed recently, with good start-up, high enthusiasm for goods preparation and good demand for coke. In the environment of tight supply and good demand, it is expected that the coke market will continue to operate stably, moderately and strongly, focusing on the coke inventory in all links and the impact of changes in steel plant operating rate on the coke market.

In terms of phosphoric acid, the reference price of phosphoric acid was 10200.00, the same as that on March 1. This month, the phosphoric acid market mainly operated stably, and the rise and fall were not obvious. The offer of enterprises with low quotation increased, the high-end price was mostly operated stably, and the market wait-and-see mood increased. Up to now, the market price of phosphoric acid is about 9800-11000 yuan / ton.

3、 Future forecast

The yellow phosphorus analyst of the chemical branch of business agency believes that the price of yellow phosphorus fell first and then rose this month. The downstream just needs replenishment, and the overall market demand has improved. The price of upstream phosphate rock rose, the coke market rose, and the cost support was strong. It is expected that yellow phosphorus will mainly run at a high level in the short term.

According to the data monitored by the business society, the PP market fell this week, and the spot prices of various brands generally decreased. As of March 18, the mainstream offer price of T30S (wire drawing) from domestic manufacturers and traders was about 8940 yuan / ton, up or down by + 4.81% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

Industrial chain: the domestic market of raw material propylene accelerated this week, the mainstream price of the market fell to 8200-8400 yuan / ton, the high level of international crude oil price fell sharply, the downstream demand was still low, the on-site trading level further shrank, the market situation was bad, and the merchants cut prices and took orders. After the sharp rise and fall of propylene market, the market needs to be further sorted out. It is expected that the propylene market will be mainly consolidated in the near future.

The price decline of raw propylene and upstream crude oil increased. The escalation of sanctions against Russia by the Western camp in the early stage caused increased market uncertainty. This week, the situation in Russia and Ukraine released a easing signal, causing a sharp decline in crude oil and the collapse of PP cost side support. In terms of supply, the current supply of PP continues the abundant pattern in the early stage, there are many inventories in enterprises and midstream, the operating rate of the industry is at a high level, the inventory of petrochemical plants is high and the profit situation is general, and some enterprises are willing to reduce the load under pressure. The inventory pressure of merchants is the same, and buyers are more resistant to high price goods, so they are more cautious in taking goods. In terms of demand, downstream enterprises have not taken goods in a centralized manner before. Superimposed on the recent domestic rebound in health events, logistics and production in some areas have been affected. Under the contradiction between supply and demand, enterprises are blocked from going to the warehouse, businesses reduce prices and take orders, and the market is generally empty.

In terms of fiber materials, according to the data monitored by the business society, as of March 18, the spot price of domestic fiber PP was similar to that of wire drawing materials. The mainstream offer price of domestic manufacturers and traders Z30S (fiber) is about 8883.33 yuan / ton, with an increase or decrease of + 4.10% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month and a decrease of – 5.83% year-on-year. This week, the main downstream non-woven enterprises of PP fiber materials have limited changes in operation, which is basically flat, and the overall load is about 55%. In terms of demand, it is relatively stable, and terminal enterprises take goods in favor of just need to maintain production. Although there are logistics and other obstacles caused by the fermentation of health events, the current demand for medical fiber products has increased. Overall, the current negative impact on the cost side is relatively major. Fiber PP will be tangled in the short term, or adjust the operation in a narrow range.

In terms of meltblown materials, the meltblown PP market was generally stable this week. As of March 18, the average quotation of domestic meltblown material sample enterprises monitored by business society was about 10016.67 yuan / ton, with an increase or decrease of + 3.09% compared with the average price level at the beginning of the month. The supply of meltblown materials in the market is sufficient, and the saturation pattern of domestic meltblown materials and cloth enterprises remains unchanged. At present, health events in various countries are still not optimistic. The number of local diagnoses in some regions of China has increased, which has a certain pulling effect on the spot market of melt blown cloth. However, due to the abundant supply side and the lag of logistics, the benefit is relatively slow. It is expected that the recent market of melt blown PP may be stable.

Future forecast

PP analysts of business agency believe that the domestic polypropylene market fell as a whole this week, the decline of raw material propylene and crude oil increased, and PP, which lost strong support on the cost side, fell upstream. The demand of terminal enterprises is not large-scale, the wait-and-see mood is heavy, and the goods are taken carefully. The stock accumulation of PP enterprises and businesses continued to rise, and the offer was loose. In the short term, bad will dominate the domestic market, and it is expected that the PP market will be dominated by weak consolidation and operation.

1、 Price trend

According to commodity data monitoring, the price of yellow phosphorus in Yunnan and Guizhou decreased. The average price of yellow phosphorus was 36250 yuan / ton last Friday and 33000 yuan / ton this Friday. The price decreased by 8.97% during the week.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the focus of domestic yellow phosphorus market continued to decline. The overall market trading situation has improved, and the logistics in some areas has been blocked. Downstream enquiries increased and the goods were taken more carefully. Yellow phosphorus enterprises mainly supply early-stage orders, the enterprise has obvious price support, and the low price is not exported. Affected by the news of Guizhou security inspection and production reduction, the price of yellow phosphorus may hit the bottom and rebound. Up to now, the mainstream quotation of yellow phosphorus is about 33000 yuan / ton.

In terms of phosphate rock, up to now, the reference average price in the mainstream areas of 30% grade phosphate ore in China is around 726 yuan / ton. The overall support of the domestic phosphorus ore market is favorable. The phosphorus ore data division of business society believes that in the short term, China’s domestic phosphorus ore market will mainly focus on high-level consolidation and operation, and more attention should be paid to the news changes of supply and demand.

In terms of coke, from March 11 to March 18, 2022, the price of coke market in Shanxi was 3194 yuan / ton last weekend and 3394 yuan / ton this weekend, up 6.26%. This week, the fourth round of increase in coke market fell to the ground. This round of increase was 200 yuan / ton, with a cumulative increase of 800 yuan / ton. At present, the operating rate of coking enterprises has increased to a certain extent, but the overall operation rate is still low. At present, the coke inventory in the plant is generally low. Affected by the difficulty of automobile transportation, the overall coke supply is still tight. In terms of downstream steel mills, the overall production of steel mills has resumed recently. At present, the operation is good, the enthusiasm for goods preparation is high, and the demand for coke is good. In the current environment of tight supply and good demand, it is expected that the coke market will continue to operate stably, moderately and strongly, focusing on the impact of coke inventory in all links and the change of steel plant operating rate on the coke market.

In terms of phosphoric acid, the market price of phosphoric acid was weak and stable this week. The cost support is weak, while the downstream demand continues to maintain the rigid demand for procurement, and the procurement enthusiasm is not positive. Both the buyer and the seller are cautious and wait-and-see, and the focus of the phosphoric acid market begins to move downward. Up to now, the price of raw yellow phosphorus is 33000-33500 yuan / ton, and the market price of phosphoric acid is about 9600-12000 yuan / ton. It is expected that the phosphoric acid market will fall steadily in the short term.

3、 Future forecast

The yellow phosphorus analyst of the chemical branch of business agency believes that the price of yellow phosphorus continues to fall this week, the downstream orders are cautious, and the overall market demand is general. The upstream phosphate rock is running at a high level, the coke market is rising, the cost support is OK, and the news such as the reduction of production by security inspection in Guizhou has an impact. It is expected that the price of yellow phosphorus may rebound slightly in the short term.

Acetic anhydride prices fell sharply this week

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the price of acetic anhydride fell sharply this week. As of March 18, the price of acetic anhydride was 7862.50 yuan / ton, down 3.08% from 8112.50 yuan / ton on March 11 last week. The price of acetic anhydride fell this week, and the high price of acetic anhydride fell back.

Price fluctuation adjustment of raw material acetic acid

According to the correlation statistics of business society, the correlation coefficient between acetic anhydride and acetic acid is 0.917, and acetic anhydride and acetic acid are highly positively correlated. As can be seen from the price trend chart of acetic acid in business society, the high price of acetic acid fell this week, down 2.20%. The high price of acetic acid fell this week, the cost of acetic anhydride fell, the price of acetic anhydride fell, the rising power of acetic anhydride weakened, and the downward pressure increased.

The price of raw material methanol fell sharply

As can be seen from the methanol price trend chart of business society, the methanol price fell sharply this week. On March 18, the methanol price was 2787.50 yuan / ton, down 11.37% from 3145 yuan / ton on March 11 last week. This week, the methanol price fell sharply, the cost of acetic anhydride decreased, the rising power of acetic anhydride weakened, and the downward pressure increased.

Outlook

According to the acetic anhydride data analyst of business agency, this week, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine eased, the energy crisis eased, the price of crude oil fell, the price of methanol fell sharply, the price of acetic acid and acetic anhydride fell, and the decline of cost stimulated the decline of acetic anhydride price; In terms of supply and demand, the start-up of acetic anhydride manufacturers is relatively high, the overall supply is sufficient, the recovery on the demand side is slow, the demand is weak, and the support for the rise of acetic anhydride on the supply and demand side is insufficient. On the whole, the cost of acetic anhydride has decreased and the supply is sufficient. The downward pressure on the price of acetic anhydride in the future has increased, and the price of acetic anhydride is expected to fluctuate and fall.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, the average ex factory price of 55% powdered monoammonium was 3250 yuan / ton on March 14 and 3383 yuan / ton on March 18. The price of monoammonium phosphate increased by 4.10% this week.

According to the bulk list data of business society, the average ex factory price of 64% diammonium phosphate was 3640 yuan / ton on March 14 and 3645 yuan / ton on March 18. The price of diammonium phosphate rose by 0.14% this week.

2、 Market analysis

The market of monoammonium phosphate continued to rise this week, and the price increased by 200-300 yuan / ton. Due to the rising price of raw sulfur and great pressure on the cost side, the quotation of most monoammonium phosphate enterprises increased, and the transaction focus moved up again. Due to the large amount of orders to be issued, most enterprises suspend receiving orders or receive a small amount of orders. In the short term, the price of raw materials may continue to rise, and monoammonium will continue to operate at a high level. At present, the mainstream factory quotation of 55 powder ammonium in Henan is about 3500 yuan / ton, the mainstream factory quotation of 55 powder ammonium in Anhui is about 3600 yuan / ton, and the mainstream factory quotation of 55 powder ammonium in Hubei is 3550-3600 yuan / ton. The actual transaction is negotiated.

The market of diammonium phosphate was consolidated at a high level this week, and the operating rate of enterprises decreased. At present, there is a large amount of diammonium to be sent and there are sufficient orders. With the rise of raw materials and the increase of cost pressure, most enterprises suspend quotation and order receiving, and mainly issue early orders. The price of diammonium fluctuated slightly. The fertilizer for spring ploughing increased, the on-site trading was active, and traders operated with caution. The factory quotation of 64% diammonium mainstream in Hubei is 3600-3650 yuan / ton, the arrival quotation of 64% diammonium in Yunnan is about 4050 yuan / ton in Heilongjiang, and the factory quotation of 64% diammonium mainstream in Gansu is about 3750 yuan / ton. The actual transaction is negotiated.

This week, the supply of raw phosphorus ore in the quarry continued to be tight, the downstream demand performed well, the trading atmosphere in the yard was mild, and the phosphorus ore market operated stably at a high level. The price of 30% grade phosphate rock in Guizhou is around 670-720 yuan / ton, and the price of 28% grade phosphate rock is around 580-650 yuan / ton. The increase range of 30% grade phosphorus ore in Guangxi is about 10-30 yuan / ton, and the price of 30% grade phosphorus ore is about 680-730 yuan / ton. At present, the goods in the phosphate rock field are tight, the price is strong as a whole, and the market in the field continues to be high and strong.

The price of raw sulfur continued to rise this week. Refineries in various regions in China raised sharply on Tuesday. The adjustment range of sulfur fixation price was 250-400 yuan / ton and that of liquid sulfur was 40-300 yuan / ton. The domestic market rose strongly. The reason for the sharp rise is the high support of the port price market. It is difficult to find the supply of goods in the port. The cargo holders are reluctant to sell, and the sulfur price is high. In terms of downstream demand, the sulfuric acid market is rising, and the fertilizer is used stably in spring, which gives a continuous positive impact on the market demand. The supply of goods in the domestic market is not in line with the demand, and the price of solid-liquid sulfur is running at a high level.

3、 Future forecast

The ammonium phosphate analyst of business society believes that at present, due to the continuous rise of ammonium phosphate raw materials, the pressure of ammonium phosphate enterprises has doubled, and most manufacturers raise prices and restrict orders. The downstream has a mentality of resistance to high priced ammonium phosphate and is mainly cautious. Due to the domestic epidemic, transportation in many places is blocked. It is expected that the price of Monoammonium will continue to rise in the short term and the high level of diammonium will operate firmly. It is suggested to pay attention to the changes of raw material market.

Recent price trend of isooctanol

As can be seen from the above figure, the ex factory price of isooctanol in Shandong fell slightly this week. This week, the average ex factory price of mainstream isooctanol manufacturers in Shandong fell from 13633.33 yuan / ton last weekend to 12433.33 yuan / ton this weekend, down 8.80%. Compared with the same period last year, it decreased by 11.61% year-on-year. On March 17, the isooctanol commodity index was 93.63, down 2.45 points from yesterday, down 31.91% from the highest point 137.50 in the cycle (2021-08-08), and up 166.37% from the lowest point 35.15 on February 1, 2016. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

Insufficient upstream support and weakening downstream demand

From the perspective of manufacturer’s quotation, the ex factory quotation of mainstream manufacturers of isooctanol in Shandong fell this week: Jianlan chemical offered about 12600 yuan / ton of isooctanol this weekend, which fell by 900 yuan / ton compared with last weekend, dominated by contracts; The quotation of lihuayi isooctanol this weekend is 12400 yuan / ton, which is 1100 yuan / ton lower than that last weekend; Hualu Hengsheng offered 12300 yuan / ton of isooctanol this weekend, down 1600 yuan / ton compared with last weekend.

From the upstream raw material market of isooctanol, the propylene market fell slightly this week, with the quotation falling from 9062.17 yuan / ton last weekend to 8267.17 yuan / ton this weekend, down 8.77%, down 3.31% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. The market price of upstream raw materials fell slightly and the cost support was insufficient. Affected by the supply and demand side, it had a negative impact on the price of isooctanol.

From the downstream market of isooctanol, the ex factory price of DOP fell slightly this week. DOP price fell from 12975.00 yuan / ton last weekend to 12025.00 yuan / ton this weekend, down 7.32%, down 4.37% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. Downstream DOP prices fell slightly, and downstream customers’ enthusiasm for isooctanol procurement weakened.

The upstream support is insufficient, the downstream demand is weakened, and isooctanol is bearish in the future

In the middle and late March, the market trend of Shandong isooctanol may fluctuate slightly, mainly falling. The upstream propylene market fell slightly, the cost support was insufficient, the downstream DOP market fell slightly, and the downstream demand weakened. The isooctanol analyst of business society believes that the short-term domestic isooctanol market may fluctuate and decline slightly under the influence of supply and demand, raw materials and other aspects.

DBP prices stabilized after rising this week

According to the data monitoring of business society, the price of DBP stabilized after rising this week, and the overall DBP market stabilized. As of March 11, the price of DBP was 11766.67 yuan / ton, up 4.44% from 11266.67 yuan / ton on March 4 last weekend, and up 9.29% from 10766.67 yuan / ton on March 1.

The price of butanol fluctuated and rose this week

According to the price monitoring of business society, the price of n-butanol fluctuated and rose this week, and the market of n-butanol rose. On March 11, the price of n-butanol was 11100.00 yuan / ton, up 5.71% from 10500.00 yuan / ton on March 4 last weekend. This week, the price of n-butanol in Shandong rose, the cost of DBP rose, and the price of DBP rose.

Phthalic anhydride prices rose this week

According to the price monitoring of business society, the price of phthalic anhydride stabilized after rising this week. As of March 11, the price of phthalic anhydride was 9150 yuan / ton, up 7.96% from 8475 yuan / ton on March 4 last weekend. This week, the price of phthalic anhydride rose, the price of DBP rose, and the rising power of DBP supported by cost increased.

Future expectations

DBP data analysts of business agency believe that the crisis in Russia and Ukraine has eased this week, and the crude oil price has fallen rapidly after soaring. Affected, the prices of n-butanol and phthalic anhydride in the downstream spot market have stabilized after rising, the prices of raw materials have risen, the cost of plasticizer DBP has risen, and the price of DBP has risen. In the future, the price of raw materials and the cost of DBP will stabilize, and it is expected that the price of DBP will stabilize strongly in the future.