In the first half of 2018, China’s non-ferrous metals industry faced complicated domestic and international situations, adhered to the concept of innovation and development, actively promoted high-quality development, and earnestly implemented supply-side structural reforms. The non-ferrous metal industry’s production remained generally stable. The output of ten non-ferrous metals increased steadily. The output of major non-ferrous metal mines decreased year-on-year. The output of alumina decreased from negative growth to positive growth. The output of copper processed materials increased steadily, and the growth rate of aluminum processed materials declined significantly.

In the second half of the year, China’s non-ferrous metal industry production is expected to continue its stable operation in the first half of the year. Wang Siran, deputy director of Jinrui Futures Research Institute, believes that the impact of macroeconomics on non-ferrous metals in the second half of the year is more neutral. The strong and weak relationship of various colored varieties is nickel, copper, aluminum, lead, tin and zinc.

Industry production runs smoothly

In the first half of 2018, the output of ten non-ferrous metals in the country was 26.8463 million tons, an increase of 3.15% year-on-year. The growth rate dropped by 4 percentage points compared with the same period of last year, which was basically the same as that of January-May this year. Among them, the refined copper output was 4,406,100 tons, up 11.50% year-on-year, the original aluminum output was 16.648 million tons, up 1.57% year-on-year, down 7.2 percentage points; the lead output was 2,145,400 tons, up 9.48% year-on-year, up 4.5 percentage points; zinc production 288.01 Ten thousand tons, down 0.01% year-on-year, down 1.2% over the same period of last year; alumina output was 33.34 million tons, up 1.1%, down 18.6 percentage points.

From an international perspective, the recovery of the major economies in the first half of this year has continued to increase, the US economy has recovered strongly, the European economy has continued to rebound, the Japanese economy has continued to recover moderately, and the comparative advantages of emerging economies have gradually expanded. However, the world economy still faces three major uncertainties, such as the appreciation of the US dollar, structural problems of economic growth, and increased trade friction. The growth gap between the United States and Europe and Japan has expanded in developed economies.

From the domestic point of view, China’s economic growth has continued to develop steadily and steadily since the beginning of this year, with stable transformation and upgrading, and continuous improvement in quality. The supply-side structural reform continued to advance, the new kinetic energy continued to strengthen, and the Chinese economy continued to maintain a stable and positive trend. The GDP in the first half of the year increased by 6.8%. Judging from the performance of macroeconomic indicators such as comprehensive economic growth and urban unemployment rate, China’s economy will maintain a steady, steady and stable momentum in the coming period. However, it should be noted that some hidden worries still exist, and domestic structural contradictions are still prominent. The downward pressure on economic growth, the slower growth of residents’ income, and the continued high growth of total retail sales of consumer goods are under pressure.

From the perspective of the non-ferrous metals industry, the production and operation of China’s non-ferrous metals industry is generally stable. In the first half of 2018, the non-ferrous metals industry realized a total profit of 79.82 billion yuan, down 1.4% year-on-year. Affected by the warming of consumption, stricter environmental protection and supply-side reforms, the supply of non-ferrous metals continued to maintain a stable operation. However, the profit of non-ferrous metal enterprises dropped significantly year-on-year, especially for aluminum smelting enterprises to reproduce losses or meager profits. As the Sino-US trade friction continues to heat up, the international trade environment of the whole industry, especially aluminum exports, is deteriorating, and exports are under great pressure. In addition, the continued decline in investment in the non-ferrous metals industry has not changed.

Non-ferrous listed companies make good profits

In the first half of 2018, due to the increase in product prices, many non-ferrous listed companies made good profits. In the semi-annual report released by Chinalco recently, the company achieved operating income of 82.1 billion yuan in the first half of the year, down 10.24% year-on-year; total profit was 1.93 billion yuan, up 22% year-on-year; asset-liability ratio was 66.72%, lower than the beginning of the year. 0.55 percentage points. In the first half of the year, the company achieved a net cash flow of 6.74 billion yuan, a record high in the past five years. According to industry analysts, as the country’s capacity and environmental protection policies become stricter, non-standard enterprises will gradually withdraw from the market, and supply-side limited production will further improve the market supply and demand relationship and promote the price of alumina and aluminum.

According to China Securities Network, the western mining industry realized operating income of 14.4 billion yuan in the first half of the year, down 5% from the same period of the previous year; realized a total profit of 992 million yuan, an increase of 111% over the same period of the previous year; and realized a net profit of 747 million yuan, compared with the previous year. The growth rate was 128% over the same period. In the evaluation of the first half of the year, Western Mining said that the acquisition of 82.96% equity of Dongdaliang was completed on January 4 this year. In the current period, it will be included in the consolidated financial statements of the company, which will contribute a lot to the company’s profits. The average selling price of lead concentrate, zinc concentrate and copper concentrate increased by 12%, 17% and 16% respectively over the same period of the previous year.

Mingtai Aluminum’s semi-annual report showed that the total operating income in the first half of the year was 5.96 billion yuan, an increase of 27.67% over the same period of the previous year; the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 254 million yuan, an increase of 41.26% over the same period of the previous year. Mintai Aluminum related people said that the performance growth was due to the success of resisting the external unfavorable factors, showing the company’s profitability and corporate vitality.

Non-ferrous industry analysts believe that the third quarter is the peak of the replenishment of various varieties such as cobalt and lithium, optimistic about the price of some small varieties. At the same time, the second half of the year can focus on the development trend of alumina, nickel and other varieties.

Industry boom may decline

Since 2018, China’s copper industry has faced new smelting capacity and production momentum, and the external pressure is facing the complicated and changing international situation of Sino-US trade friction. The overall performance of the copper industry is not as expected. The industrial operation is mainly as follows: Five characteristics: First, the overall decline in industrial investment, but smelting investment is hot, capacity will be further expanded. Second, the output still grows, but the consumption is flat and destocking is slow. Third, the increase in copper mines is limited, the import of scrap copper is limited, and the gap in raw material supply is widening. Fourth, the price is under pressure and the industry’s profitability has dropped. Fifth, Sino-US trade frictions have intensified, and there are many macro uncertainties. It is expected that in the third quarter of 2018, China’s copper industry will still face the imbalance of industrial selection and smelting, the expansion of raw material supply gap, and the upgrading of Sino-US trade. In the short term, the copper industry comprehensive prosperity index is still operating in the “normal” range, but the comprehensive prosperity index maybe Will decline.

In the first half of 2018, the average daily output of electrolytic aluminum was 90,000 tons, down 1.0% year-on-year; the average daily output of alumina was 190,000 tons, down 9.3% year-on-year. Although the overall performance of domestic aluminum major consumption sectors such as construction and transportation is relatively flat, aluminum consumption has continued to grow. At the same time, the company’s independent adjustment of the export market to reduce the impact of Sino-US trade friction, coupled with the sharp depreciation of the renminbi, aluminum exports performed better than expected. From the operating environment in the second half of 2018, the aluminum smelting industry will face many uncertain factors. The domestic aspects include: special treatment plan for coal-fired self-supplied power plants; implementation of air pollution prevention and control in autumn and winter in various regions; and speed of projecting of electrolytic aluminum compliance projects. International aspects include: Sino-US trade friction risk; the final US sanctions against Russian aluminum; the progress of the recovery of the Brazilian alumina plant in Hydro.

In 2018, the lead and zinc industry faced double pressure from environmental protection and raw material supply, and the output growth was limited; the intra-industry mining and metallurgical profit differentiation was intensified, and the consumption power was insufficient. The overall operation trend of the industry is mainly reflected in the hot investment in renewable lead production, which drives the growth of industrial investment; the pressure of environmentally-added raw materials supply, the output declines; the primary consumption of the industry declines year-on-year, the end consumption power is insufficient; the trend of lead and zinc prices is different, within the industry The differentiation of mining and metallurgical profits has intensified; the environmental protection requirements have been continuously improved, and the pressure of metal pollution prevention and control in lead and zinc industries has been highlighted. It is expected that environmental protection will remain the focus of lead and zinc industry operation in the third quarter. Production smelting enterprises will arrange production according to actual operation conditions. Consumers will enter lead consumption season or lead consumption. The future development trend of recycled lead industry remains to be seen. Observed. In the short term, the lead and zinc industry will still be in the “normal” range.

It is expected that in the second half of 2018, non-ferrous metal production will still be expected to maintain stable operation. The price of non-ferrous metals continues to fluctuate at the current price level, and production costs rise. However, non-ferrous metal industrial enterprises have achieved significant decline in profit growth, industry fixed asset investment and non-ferrous metal products exports. Still difficult to have obvious improvement.

Russian company Alisher Usmanov is in talks with banks to raise $1.25 billion in early 2019 to build a large mining and metallurgical plant in Russia’s largest undeveloped copper deposit.

Since the Western sanctions imposed four years ago, large-scale green projects in Russia’s energy and mining sectors have slowed down because companies have difficulty obtaining financing from overseas. But with the help of local financing, some large projects are now recovering. Usmanov’s Baikal Mining Company, the operator of the Udokan copper deposit, is betting that global copper demand is strong. Many people have expectations for the demand for copper in the electric vehicle industry.

Valery Kazikayev, chairman of the board of Baikal Mining Company, said that some of Russia’s largest banks have expressed interest in the company’s projects, and he said that negotiations with one of the banks have progressed particularly well. Udokan’s total copper reserves exceed 26.7 million tons and it is one of the largest undeveloped copper mines in the world. However, since its discovery in 1949, the mine has been a virgin land because of the lack of technology that is suitable for the unique ore that is difficult to mine.

Before the financial crisis broke out in 2008, Usmanov spent $500 million to acquire the right to develop the Udokan mine from the Russian government. The Baikal Mining Company spent ten years solving the technical challenges of the mine. It also cost $330 million to create a new geological model of the deposit.

This month, Baikal Mining Company is preparing for the construction site, which will combine flotation and hydrometallurgical processes. The Baikal Mining Company will need $1.35 billion to build a plant that will mine 12 million tons of ore a year and produce 130,000 tons of copper.

The company plans to invest $100 million in the project and will target primarily China and other Asian markets. The remaining funds were raised through financing $1.25 billion. The processing plant has an annual ore capacity of 12 million tons and an internal rate of return of at least 21%. Udokan has the potential to expand to 48 million tons and may accelerate its expansion under favorable copper market conditions.

According to Kazikayev, copper is one of the most promising metals, so the schedule for processing the ore capacity of 24 million tons, 36 million tons or 48 million tons per year may be tight.

Two of the world’s four largest mining giants have expressed interest in the project, and three Chinese companies have expressed interest. Baikal Mining Company continues to liaise with it, but the company plans to advance the project on its own.

On September 16th, the PX Commodity Index was 84.00, which was the same as yesterday. It was 17.97% lower than the highest point of 102.40 points (2013-02-28) in the cycle, which was 84.41% higher than the lowest point of 45.55 on February 15, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2013-02-01 to date)

Recently, the domestic p-xylene market price fluctuated at a high level. The on-site installation of Pengzhou Petrochemical was overhauled. The Urumqi petrochemical plant started 50%. The Tenglong aromatics plant has been in operation. Other devices are temporarily operating stably, and the domestic p-xylene market is normal. The operating rate of PX devices in Asia is less than 70%. On September 14, the closing price of the paraxylene market in Asia fell by US$7/ton, and the closing price was US$1345-1347/ton FOB Korea and US$1365-1367/ton CFR China, USA WTI crude oil futures market price rose in October, reported 68.99 US dollars / barrel, or 0.40 US dollars, Brent crude oil futures prices fell, reported 78.09 US dollars / barrel, a decline of 0.09 US dollars, upstream raw material prices rose slightly, the recent textile industry The market trend is general, and the PX market price fluctuates. The downstream PTA market was affected by the delay in resumption of production, and the PTA supply was slightly tight or continued. By the end of the 14th, the domestic PTA operating rate was around 78.58%, the PTA price was slightly lower, and the average price of the East China region was 9200-9300. In the vicinity of RMB/ton, the downstream production and sales remained relatively stable and the PTA is still in a state of balance and de-stocking. It is expected that the PX market price will remain high in the later period.

According to LME data, the total inventory of copper metal inventories on September 14 was 225,900 metric tons, an increase of 775 metric tons per day; the total inventory of aluminum metal stocks was 1,046,700 metric tons, a decrease of 4,500 metric tons per day; and the total inventory of aluminum alloys was 13,600 metric tons.

Price trend

The propane commodity index on September 12 was 91.38, up 0.23 points from yesterday, down by 24.98% from the highest point of 121.80 points (2012-03-23) in the cycle, up 93.36 from the lowest point of 47.26 on August 07, 2016. %. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date)

Products: The domestic propane market has risen slightly and the market has stabilized. The ex-factory price of propane in Shandong is 5600-5730 yuan / ton. The quoted price is the reference price, and the actual price is based on the actual transaction price. In the morning, the international crude oil surged, which formed a certain support for the market mentality, and the downstream industry’s wait-and-see attitude gradually loosened. Manufacturers are relatively smooth today, and there is no pressure on stocks. Overall, the performance of the domestic propane market remained firm, the weather turned cooler, the market demand increased, and the market formed support.

Industry chain: The market for liquefied petroleum gas is stable today. Under the pressure of high prices, the downstream procurement strength has weakened, the terminal inventory has become saturated, and the market atmosphere has turned weak. Today’s domestic propylene market is deadlocked. The mentality of the production enterprises is still stable, and most of them have no stock pressure under the pressure of stocks, and there is no intention to lower them.

Market outlook: The propane analyst of the business community believes that the current propane price has risen to a high level, the overall inventory of the manufacturers has no inventory pressure, and the downstream market enthusiasm has rebounded. It is expected that the propane market will remain stable at a high level tomorrow.

On September 12, according to media reports, Peru announced the launch of a new copper project. The Mina Justa project, worth $1.6 billion from Ica in the southern coastal region, will start producing 102,000 tons/year of copper concentrate from 2020.

According to the business community monitoring: On September 11, the new week, the domestic 27.5% hydrogen peroxide price reappeared, the average market price of 1231 yuan / ton, up 1.13% over the previous week, up 2.82% from the beginning of the month.

In September, the traditional consumption season of hydrogen peroxide was coming, and the downstream demand increased. The demand for 27.5% hydrogen peroxide in this week was generally. As the demand for 37.5% hydrogen peroxide increased, the supply of 27.5% hydrogen peroxide decreased, so hydrogen peroxide manufacturers increased their prices. The price increase areas are mainly concentrated in Hebei and Shandong, Anhui, Zhejiang, Hunan and other regions have performed steadily. Among them, Hebei Zhengyuan offer 1,200 yuan / ton, up 50 yuan / ton over the weekend; Hebei Xinhua offer 1170 yuan / ton, up 20 yuan / ton; Shandong Haineng offer 1150 yuan / ton, up 50 yuan over last weekend / ton; Shandong Hengtong offer 1130 yuan / ton, up 40 yuan / ton over the previous weekend; Shandong Mingshui offer 1120 yuan / ton, up 40 yuan / ton over the last weekend; Luxi offer 1090 yuan / ton, up from last weekend 30 yuan / ton. The mainstream price in Anhui is 1,200 yuan / ton. The mainstream price in Zhejiang is 1,300 yuan / ton, holding steady.

The business of hydrogen peroxide analysts believe that: September is the peak season of hydrogen peroxide consumption, demand support, manufacturers to raise prices, the market price of hydrogen peroxide is easy to rise and fall, is expected to break through the 1,500 yuan mark.

First, the price trend

According to the data monitored by the business community, the price of potassium carbonate continued to be consolidating this week. On September 3, the domestic average price of light potassium carbonate was 6,800 yuan/ton, and the price on September 3 was 6,783 yuan/ton. The decline was 0.25%, and the market consolidation was dominant.

Second, the analysis of influencing factors

Products: At present, the market of potassium carbonate is stable, the market is normalized, and the price adjustment is not large. The factory equipment is in normal production, the supply is sufficient, the terminal demand is stable, the purchasing market momentum is general, and the quotation is consolidating. According to business statistics: on September 7th, the domestic mainstream price range of light potassium carbonate is around 6700-6800 yuan / ton (quote is for reference only), depending on the purchase situation, the quotation is different.

Third, the market outlook

Analysts of the potassium carbonate industry in the business community believe that the price of potassium carbonate in the short term may be dominated by consolidation, and the long-term market still needs to wait and see, mainly affected by the demand side. (The above prices are provided by major manufacturers of potassium nitrate in all parts of the country and are analyzed and analyzed by the potassium carbonate analysts of the business community. For reference only, please contact the relevant manufacturers for more price details).

First, the price trend

According to business data, the average price of maleic anhydride in the weekend was 9060.50 yuan / ton (both tax included), and the offer was stable.

Second, the market analysis

Products: This week, the domestic maleic anhydride market as a whole showed a weak trend.

Industry chain: First, the downstream UPR market of domestic maleic anhydride fluctuated and consolidated, and the main raw material market maintained a consolidation trend. Secondly, the prices of raw materials in various mainstream regions did not change much, the support for maleic anhydride weakened, and the downstream demand was poor, resulting in high maleic anhydride. Insufficient power, manufacturers’ quotations are generally stable, and the volatility is limited. Finally, although the prices of major raw materials have been adjusted, the callbacks have limited pressure on manufacturers, resulting in a decline in the price of n-butane and pure benzene. Therefore, the downstream supply of maleic anhydride is just in need of procurement. It is difficult to improve the demand.

Third, the market outlook

Analysts of maleic anhydride products in the business division of the chemical industry believe that: At present, the price of raw materials is stable in the near future. It is expected that the market will maintain a high level of consolidation next week, which is the same as this week.