According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic price of sodium metabisulfite has been weak this week. The average price of industrial grade sodium metabisulfite at the beginning of the week was 2083 yuan/ton, and the average price over the weekend was 2066 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.80% during the week.

This week, the domestic market price range for industrial grade sodium metabisulfite is 1850-1950 yuan/ton, with most prices concentrated around 1900 yuan/ton. The upstream soda ash price of sodium metabisulfite remained stable this week, and the sodium metabisulfite market was dominated by inquiries with weak transactions. (The above prices refer to the quotes provided by mainstream domestic enterprises, and some unreported enterprises are temporarily not within their scope. The prices are for reference only and are not related to the final pricing of the manufacturers. For details, please contact each manufacturer for consultation.).

Future forecast

At present, the sodium metabisulfite market lacks favorable support, and it is expected that the domestic market price will mainly fluctuate and weaken in the short term.

Since June to July, the domestic liquid ammonia market has continued to fluctuate and decline. In August, the market gradually bottomed out and stabilized. This week (8.12-16), domestic liquid ammonia rose slightly. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the weekly increase of liquid ammonia in Shandong region was 1.51%. The main reason is that in the context of stable downstream demand, there are more equipment maintenance in the northern region, and some shutdowns have eased supply pressure. At present, the mainstream price of liquid ammonia in Shandong region is 2300-2600 yuan/ton.

Device maintenance increases supply pressure relief

From the supply side, the pressure on supply has eased, and the production of equipment in the main northern production areas has decreased. Since August, the increase in maintenance equipment and temporary shutdown of ammonia companies have affected some production. Mainly manifested in Shandong, Hebei, Anhui, and the Two Lakes region. As the weekend approaches, some manufacturers are tentatively raising their factory prices by over 100 yuan/ton. The market shows a basic balance between supply and demand.

The overall industrial chain has slightly improved

From the perspective of the liquid ammonia industry chain diagram, the upstream and downstream environment of liquid ammonia has slightly improved, and the upstream natural gas has shaken off the sluggish situation in July. This week, the price has slightly increased, with a growth rate of 0.81%. In addition, the downstream sector has generally rebounded, mainly reflected in the strong rigidity of downstream demand and a slight rebound in agricultural demand; In addition, industrial demand remains primarily driven by essential needs. The main downstream product is urea (0.35%).

Downstream urea market slightly rebounds

In terms of downstream related products such as urea, the urea market has rebounded this week with a slight increase in prices. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic urea market has risen by 0.35%. As of this Friday, the mainstream quotation for small and medium-sized particles in Shandong region is around 2300 yuan/ton. The increase in urea prices is very limited, mainly due to the delayed and unexpected agricultural demand, and the widespread postponement of the peak season for purchasing compound fertilizers in autumn. The market is generally observing and waiting. The increase in shipments from urea factories is limited, but inventory pressure has slightly eased. The short-term supply and demand situation may maintain a basic balance, and prices will continue to consolidate.

Market forecast:

Business analysts believe that from the supply side, there is not much pressure on the market supply, and the impact tends to weaken as the equipment is on and off. The mentality of enterprises to support prices is gradually strengthening, but due to the impact of rainy season weather, transportation has been affected to some extent, and some ammonia plants in certain areas may have short-term supply pressure. Overall, it is difficult for a large-scale market oversupply to occur in the short term.

From the demand side, the peak season for autumn fertilizer preparation is approaching, and there is an expectation of a rebound in demand. In the short term, it will be favorable for liquid ammonia, as industrial demand is mainly driven by essential needs, and there is limited room for future growth.

Taking all factors into consideration, the price of liquid ammonia will gradually strengthen with the easing of supply and demand pressure in the near future. In the later stage of the supply-demand game, the ammonia market will turn into a volatile upward adjustment.

In early August, the overall supply of cotton was loose. Currently, there is a large price difference between domestic and foreign cotton, and there is significant pressure from the lack of advantages in domestic cotton. The downward trend of cotton prices has widened. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the spot price of 3128B grade cotton on August 12th was 14733 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.32% from the beginning of the month.

In terms of futures, both Zhengmian and Meimian hit a new low for the year in the first half of the year, and then the trend stabilized with a slight rebound. As of the 12th, the closing price of Zheng cotton’s main contract was 13620, and as of the 9th, the settlement price of ICE cotton’s December contract was 68.34.

Domestic market: Since August, Zhengzhou cotton has experienced a significant decline, and cotton spot prices have also followed suit. The decline in cotton spot prices has widened compared to July. The recent expectation of loose supply in China, the lack of significant improvement in demand, and the absence of effective macroeconomic incentives have all put pressure on cotton prices to operate weakly. In addition, the weather conditions in the production area are favorable for the growth of new cotton, and the market has a strong estimate of high yield for new cotton, further highlighting the loose supply situation.

International market: Last week, the US stock market fell sharply, putting pressure on the commodity market, and the decline in US cotton intensified. Later, with the rebound of US stock and international crude oil prices, market participants’ mentality improved. Last Friday, under the influence of the improved sentiment in the peripheral market, cotton showed an oversold rebound performance. In late July, a large number of US cotton contracts were cancelled, leading to a sharp decline in US cotton exports for two consecutive weeks. Market analysis suggests that this is due to a significant increase in shipping costs, China’s addition of only 200000 tons of sliding tariff cotton import quotas in 2024, and competitive pressure from Brazilian cotton.

Insufficient downstream demand: yarn prices continue to decline, and the downstream market remains weak. From the perspective of market operation, due to the continuous decline in cotton prices, textile enterprises are becoming more cautious in replenishing their essential inventory. The downstream “Golden September and Silver October” consumption peak season is approaching, but textile companies have lower expectations for the peak season, and there is currently insufficient follow-up on autumn and winter orders from textile companies.

Positive consumer data: According to the latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the per capita clothing consumption expenditure of Chinese residents in the first half of this year increased by 8.1% year-on-year, with a growth rate 2.7 percentage points higher than the same period last year; The retail sales of clothing, shoes, hats, and needle textiles above designated size in China increased by 1.3% year-on-year; Clothing prices increased by 1.5% year-on-year in July. According to the latest data from the General Administration of Customs of China, the cumulative export value of textiles and clothing in China from January to July was 169.8 billion yuan, an increase of 1.1% year-on-year.

Market forecast: The significant drop in cotton prices will lead to a recovery in profits for downstream cotton yarn enterprises. At the same time, the approaching peak season will boost the cotton market, and domestic cotton prices are expected to gradually stabilize and rebound. However, the expected increase in new cotton production and the unclear sustainability of downstream demand have resulted in insufficient action on cotton prices. The expectation of increased cotton production in the new year is strong, and the global cotton supply is expected to remain loose. With good demand and macroeconomic risk factors still present, it is expected that external cotton will continue to fluctuate at a low level in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic price of sodium metabisulfite has been weak this week. The average price of industrial grade sodium metabisulfite at the beginning of the week was 2120 yuan/ton, and the average price over the weekend was 2101 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.86% during the week.

This week, the domestic market price range for industrial grade sodium metabisulfite is 1850-2000 yuan/ton, with most prices concentrated around 1900 yuan/ton. The upstream soda ash price of sodium metabisulfite remained stable this week, but the market demand for sodium metabisulfite was light and the transaction volume was lower than expected. (The above prices refer to the quotes provided by mainstream domestic enterprises, and some unreported enterprises are temporarily not within their scope. The prices are for reference only and are not related to the final pricing of the manufacturers. For details, please contact each manufacturer for consultation.).

Future forecast

At present, the transaction volume of sodium metabisulfite market is weak, and the domestic market price may mainly fluctuate and weaken in the short term.

In July, the domestic fluorite price trend declined. As of the end of the month, the average domestic fluorite price was 3591.25 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.39% from the beginning of the month at 3756.25 yuan/ton, and a year-on-year increase of 17.51%.

Supply side: The mining operation rate is not high, and the supply of fluorite is still tight

The current situation of the game in the domestic fluorite industry still exists. Overall, the operating rate of enterprises has not changed much. Upstream mining is tight, backward mines will continue to be eliminated, and new mines will be added. Mineral investigation work is still difficult. In addition, the national department will carry out renovation of fluorite mines in the near future, and fluorite mining enterprises are facing increasingly strict safety and environmental protection requirements. In addition, the high temperature and rainy weather in the southern region have increased the difficulty of operating fluorite mines, and the shortage of raw materials has limited the operation of fluorite enterprises. The supply of fluorite sources is still tight, and the decline in fluorite prices is somewhat restricted.

Demand side: Hydrofluoric acid demand, weak refrigerant, low operating level

In July, the domestic hydrofluoric acid market trend fell, and the mainstream price of hydrofluoric acid in various regions of China was negotiated at 10500-11000 yuan/ton. The downstream hydrofluoric acid market is weak and declining, with some units still in shutdown recently. There is little change in the spot supply of hydrofluoric acid, and manufacturers have low orders for purchasing hydrofluoric acid. The overall production of hydrofluoric acid is less than 60%, which has dragged down the domestic fluorite market. Some hydrofluoric acid manufacturers purchase on demand, and the domestic fluorite market trend is declining.

The downstream refrigerant market in the terminal continues to be deadlocked due to poor demand transmission. After entering the off-season of production, the market production demand weakened. In addition, the recent rainy weather has led to poor inventory of refrigerant companies, which has resulted in a lack of enthusiasm for upstream product procurement. The market for some refrigerant products has declined, which has led to a decrease in the market for fluorite.

In addition to the traditional demand in the refrigerant industry, fluorite, as an important mineral raw material for modern industry, is constantly developing in emerging fields. It is also applied in strategic emerging industries such as new energy and new materials, as well as national defense, nuclear industry, etc., including lithium hexafluorophosphate, PVDF, graphite negative electrode, photovoltaic panel, etc. With the demand driven by new energy and semiconductor fields, fluorite applications have received certain support, and the fluorite market is still supported.

Market forecast: In the near future, it is difficult to improve the supply of domestic fluorite mines, and some mines have stopped production for safety inspections. The tight supply of fluorite mines is a major positive support for the fluorite market. However, the downstream hydrofluoric acid market trend has declined, and the demand for downstream refrigerants has weakened. Both long and short factors have a joint impact, and Chen Ling, an analyst at Shengyi Society, believes that fluorite prices may slightly fall in the later period.