According to the monitoring sample data of the Business News Agency, the average price of melamine enterprises was 8233.33 yuan/ton as of January 30, which was the same as that of January 1.

In January, the melamine market was mainly stable, and it was sorted and operated. In the first ten days, the market price of raw material urea rose slightly, the cost support increased, the operating rate of melamine market declined, and the export support made the enterprises have a low mentality, but the performance of domestic downstream demand was poor, the market trading atmosphere was stagnant, and the price fluctuated steadily. In the middle of the year, there is some support for the cost. Some equipment maintenance and export orders are acceptable, but the domestic downstream stock mentality is general. The Spring Festival holiday is approaching, and the market is running slowly and steadily. After the holiday, the price of raw material urea is high, the cost support is strong, the industry operating rate is low, and the price of melamine is rising steadily, but the actual performance of the demand side is general, and the market wait-and-see atmosphere is strong.

For upstream urea, the domestic urea market rose on January 30. According to the monitoring data of Business News Agency, the reference price of urea was 2746.00 on January 27, up 1.78% from January 1 (2698.00).

Melamine analysts from the Business Agency believe that at present, the price of raw material urea is rising, the cost support is rising, the orders to be issued by enterprises are still acceptable, and the downstream demand is gradually recovering. It is expected that in the short term, the melamine market will be stable and wait and see, and more attention should be paid to the guidance of market news.

This week, the lead market (1.6-1.13) went down in shock. The average price of the domestic market was 15560 yuan/ton at the end of last week and 15215 yuan/ton at the end of this week, down 2.22%.

The commodity price K-bar chart uses the concept of price trend K-line to reflect the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments according to the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates: rising; Green means: down; The height of the K column indicates the range of rise and fall. Since the market entered September, the expectation of downstream battery enterprises in the peak season has increased, driving the price of primary lead to rise, and the price continues to weaken after the end of the peak season.

In the futures market, this week’s lead price was mainly down, with an operating range of 2120-2310 US dollars/ton and a weekly decline of about 1%. This week, the market mentality was dragged down by the macro impact, and prices continued to decline. The US Federal Reserve’s non-agricultural data report was quite different from the market expectation, which triggered the market’s risk aversion sentiment, and the lead price fell from a high level. Shanghai lead fell continuously on Friday, with a weekly decline of about 2.3%.

The spot market is mainly down this week. As the holiday season approaches, the market volume is relatively light, and the downstream demand is gradually falling, and the market holiday atmosphere is relatively strong. Basically, lead has not changed much and remains in the off-season market. On the supply side, the operating rate of primary lead enterprises has declined due to the holiday. In terms of downstream demand, after the weather turned cold, battery manufacturers entered the seasonal off-season. As the domestic market approached the Spring Festival holiday, battery companies gradually began to enter the holiday. The operating rate declined significantly and the demand for lead ingots declined. The market price continued to decline this week, the domestic inventory was in the accumulation stage, and the market trading was cold. In general, the lead ingot market has entered a seasonal off-season, with weak supply and demand in the lead market. The short-term trend continues to follow the macro factors, and there is still some room for decline in the long term.

London Metal Exchange (LME) lead inventory 21550 tons on January 13, 2022

The non-ferrous index stood at 1204 points on January 14, unchanged from yesterday, down 21.72% from the highest point of 1538 points in the cycle (2021-10-18), and up 98.35% from the lowest point of 607 points on November 24, 2015. (Note: the period refers to 2011-12-01 to now).

According to the price monitoring of the Business Agency, in the list of commodity prices rising and falling in the second week of 2023 (1.9-1.13), there were 9 commodities in the non-ferrous sector that rose on a month-on-month basis, including 1 commodity that rose more than 5%, accounting for 4.3% of the monitored commodities in this sector; The top three commodities were tin (7.06%), copper (3.72%) and aluminum (3.41%). There were seven commodities that fell on a month-on-month basis, with cobalt (- 2.50%), dysprosium oxide (- 1.80%) and lead (- 1.68%) among the top three products. The average rise and fall of this week was 0.39%.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitoring of the Business News Agency, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market rose steadily this week, and the refinery tentatively pushed it up. The average price of the Shandong market at the beginning of the week was 7246 yuan/ton, and the average price at the weekend was 7330 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 1.16% and a year-on-year decrease of 6.51%.

As of January 13, the mainstream prices of propylene in domestic regions are as follows:

Region/ January 13th

Shandong region/ 7300-7400 yuan/ton

Northeast China/ 6900-7000 yuan/ton

East China/ 6900-7200 yuan/ton

2、 Analysis and comment

According to the monitoring of the data of the Business News Agency, the propylene market in Shandong rose steadily this week. The downstream stock was prepared before the festival, and there was a wave of purchase peaks. The transaction atmosphere improved. The upstream stock was smooth, the inventory was effectively removed, and the price was tentatively pushed up. At the same time, cost support increased, further boosting market prices.

Upstream: The recent cost performance has been strong, especially for crude oil and propane. The price of propane has risen continuously since January. As of January 13, the average price of propane in Shandong market has risen to 5950 yuan/ton, up 17.07% from the beginning of the month. The crude oil price continued to rise in the week. As of the close on January 12, the WTI rose 0.98 to $78.39/barrel in February 2023, up 1.26%; In March 2023, Brent rose 1.36 to US $84.03/barrel, up 1.64%. Under the forced support of the cost side, the propene inflation power increased.

Downstream: The price of some downstream products rose slightly under the boost of the downstream pre-season stock. Polypropylene market is relatively stable, but the market is facing the Spring Festival holiday in the future, and the trading volume is beginning to turn weak. It is expected that the weak market will be sorted and operated in the future.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

Propylene analysts from the Chemical Branch of the Business Society believe that the Spring Festival is approaching, the downstream replenishment is approaching the end, and the procurement has also been reduced. Supported by the cost, it is expected that the propylene market in Shandong Province will operate steadily in the near future.

According to the monitoring of the Business News Agency, the price of anhydrous hydrofluoric acid in China dropped sharply after the New Year’s Day. The market price of hydrofluoric acid was 11214.29 yuan/ton as of the 6th day, down 10.29% from the price of 12500 yuan/ton on the 1st day, down 4.96% year on year.

Supply side: After the holiday, the domestic hydrofluoric acid price dropped sharply. As of the 6th, the mainstream price of hydrofluoric acid negotiated by various regions in China was 11000-11500 yuan/ton. Although some units in the north were shut down recently, the hydrofluoric acid units in the south operated stably, the spot supply of hydrofluoric acid was sufficient, and the manufacturer’s hydrofluoric acid orders were poor, which affected the price trend of hydrofluoric acid.

Raw material side: the market price of raw fluorite has dropped from a high level, and the average price of domestic fluorite was 3175 yuan/ton as of the 6th day, down 3.79% from the price of 3300 yuan/ton on the 1st day. Although the operating rate of fluorite mines remains low, and mining enterprises are facing increasingly stringent safety and environmental requirements, resulting in a shortage of fluorite raw materials, some fluorite flotation shutdowns and holidays recently, some enterprises have accumulated fluorite stocks, and the downstream procurement is not active, resulting in a decline in fluorite prices, hydrofluoric acid is affected by costs, and the market price has dropped significantly.

The market price of raw material sulfuric acid continued to fall, and the average price of domestic sulfuric acid was 280 yuan/ton as of the 6th, and the sulfuric acid market has been falling since the middle of October. In recent years, domestic sulfuric acid plants have been operating stably and the supply is sufficient. The enthusiasm of downstream sulfuric acid procurement has weakened. The product trend has declined under the contradiction between supply and demand, which has driven the domestic hydrofluoric acid market down.

Demand side: the market of refrigerant products downstream of the terminal is sluggish, and the operating rate of the refrigerant industry is less than 30%. At present, the price trend of refrigerant R22 is temporarily stable, and the market supply is sufficient. The application field of R22 market is mainly based on demand, and the market quotation of R22 is in the range of 17000-1900 yuan/ton. The price of domestic R134a declined slightly, the price of trichloroethylene was low, and the focus of R134a trading remained low. At present, the market price of R134a is in the range of 23000-25000 yuan/ton. The demand for refrigerants in winter is weak, and under the pressure of cost and demand, the prices of domestic refrigerants R22 and R134a are sluggish in the short term, and the demand of the refrigerant industry is poor, resulting in a sharp decline in the price of hydrofluoric acid.

Aftermarket forecast: the price of fluorite in the upstream fell back to a high level, and some downstream refrigerant industries gradually closed their holidays near the end of the year. In addition, the spot supply of hydrofluoric acid was normal. Affected by negative factors, Chen Ling, hydrofluoric acid analyst at the business agency, believed that the price trend of hydrofluoric acid market in the later period would decline.

According to statistics, the domestic market price of ammonium nitrate rose slightly this week. As of the end of the week, the market price of ammonium nitrate was 4300 yuan/ton, up 0.47% from the price of 4280 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, up 8.59% year on year.

The domestic ammonium nitrate market price rose slightly this week. The domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers’ devices operated stably. The supply of goods on the site was normal in the near future. The factory’s inventory was not high. The price of liquid ammonia upstream of the terminal was higher. In addition, the price of nitric acid rose slightly, and the price of ammonium nitrate rose slightly. Recently, the shipping market of ammonium nitrate manufacturers is normal, and the demand for downstream nitro-compound fertilizer is normal. However, the demand for ammonium nitrate in the domestic downstream civil explosive industry is increasing in the peak season, and the domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers are not operating high, and the price of ammonium nitrate is rising recently. Up to now, the mainstream of negotiation in Shaanxi is 4800-5200 yuan/ton, the mainstream of negotiation in Shandong is 4500-4600 yuan/ton, and the price in Hebei is 4600-4700 yuan/ton.

The price of domestic concentrated nitric acid rose this week, with the average price of domestic nitric acid at 2516.67 yuan/ton by the end of the week, up 2.72% from the price of 2450 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week. Ningxia Runxia Energy Chemical quoted 2550 yuan/ton; Shaanxi Xinghua quoted 2150 yuan/ton. Recently, the domestic nitric acid plant has been operating stably, the supply of concentrated nitric acid is normal, and the goods are in good condition in the field. Recently, the price of nitric acid in the field has risen, and the high price of raw material nitric acid has supported the ammonium nitrate market, and the market price of ammonium nitrate has risen slightly.

The price of upstream liquid ammonia declined this week. As of the end of the week, the price of liquid ammonia was 4606.67 yuan/ton, down 1.43% from the price of 4673.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week. This week, the amount of ammonia released from the main production areas only increased without decreasing, and the shipments from Shandong, Hebei, Shanxi, Henan and other places were large. The main reason is that a large number of overhauled devices are put into production. Since the beginning of this month, Fujian Wanhua and Shenyuan units have resumed production, and because of the high price of liquid ammonia in the early stage, most of the co-production enterprises have converted from urea to liquid ammonia, resulting in a surge in the amount of ammonia. Under the effect of the continuous price reduction of the manufacturers, the shipment strength has been increased. The decline of upstream liquid ammonia price has a certain negative impact on the ammonium nitrate market, and the price increase in the ammonium nitrate market is limited.

Recently, the demand of the downstream civil explosive industry has increased, the market price of liquid ammonia has declined, the price of nitric acid has risen, and the spot supply of ammonium nitrate is normal. The ammonium nitrate analyst of the business association believes that the market price of ammonium nitrate may rise slightly in the future.

This week, the lead market (12.30-1.6) went down in shock. The average price of the domestic market was 15745 yuan/ton at the end of last week and 15560 yuan/ton at the end of this week, down 1.17%.

The commodity price K-bar chart uses the concept of price trend K-line to reflect the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments according to the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates: rising; Green means: down; The height of the K column indicates the range of rise and fall. Since the market entered September, the expectation of downstream battery enterprises in the peak season has increased, driving the price of primary lead to rise, and the price has weakened after the end of the peak season.

In the futures market, Lun Lead fell continuously this week, with the main fluctuation range of 2188-2298 US dollars/ton. Affected by the weak supply and demand, Lun Lead fell for four consecutive weeks. The main shock range of Shanghai lead was 15600-16110 yuan/ton, which fell continuously this week due to macro factors.

Basically, lead has not changed much and remains in the off-season market. On the supply side, all primary lead enterprises have resumed production and stopped production, and the overall operating rate has increased slightly. In terms of downstream demand, after the weather turned cold, the battery manufacturers entered the seasonal off-season, the domestic market was approaching the Spring Festival holiday, and the pre-holiday reserve warehouse was almost at an end. The battery enterprises gradually began to enter the holiday, with a significant decline in the operating rate and a decline in the demand for lead ingots. The market price continued to decline this week, the domestic inventory was in the accumulation stage, and the market trading was cold. In general, the lead ingot market has entered a seasonal off-season, with weak supply and demand in the lead market. The short-term trend continues to follow the macro factors, and there is still some room for decline in the long term.

The non-ferrous index stood at 1179 points on January 8, unchanged from yesterday, down 23.34% from the highest point of 1538 points in the cycle (2021-10-18), and up 94.23% from the lowest point of 607 points on November 24, 2015. (Note: the period refers to 2011-12-01 to now).

According to the price monitoring of the Business Agency, there were seven commodities in the non-ferrous sector in the list of commodity prices rising and falling in the first week of 2023 (1.2-1.6), with the top three commodities rising respectively being metal praseodymium (2.19%), antimony (1.67%) and neodymium oxide (1.30%). There are 10 commodities with a month-on-month decline, and 2 commodities with a decline of more than 5%, accounting for 8.7% of the monitored commodities in this sector; The top three products falling were nickel (- 9.87%), aluminum (- 5.30%) and silver (- 3.84%). The average rise and fall of this week was -0.93%.

According to the bulk list data of business cooperatives, as of January 6, the average price of acrylic acid in East China was 6800.00 yuan/ton, which was the same as the price on Monday.

Acrylic acid market is mainly stable this week. This week, the price of raw propylene was largely stable and slightly volatile, with limited impact on cost. The industry’s operating rate rose slightly compared with the previous period. Downstream procurement was dominated by demand. The enthusiasm for inquiry was improved, and the market atmosphere was improved. The focus of acrylic market negotiations was not volatile.

Upstream propylene, according to the data monitoring of the business community, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market was stable and slightly moved this week, maintaining overall stability. The average price of Shandong market at the beginning of the week was 7244 yuan/ton, and the average price at the weekend was 7250 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.08%.

According to the acrylic analysts of the business community, the current cost is still supported, the market atmosphere has warmed up, and the transaction is just in demand. It is expected that the acrylic market will stabilize in the short term, and more attention should be paid to the downstream stock.

In 2022, the MTBE market will “hit a new high”, and the whole line will become red. It will rise first and then fall. The overall rise will reach the highest point of the year in the middle of the year. According to the monitoring data of the business community, the average price of domestic MTBE producers will be 5716 yuan/ton on January 1, 2022, and 6100 yuan/ton on December 31, with an overall increase of 6.72%. The lowest point of the price appeared at the beginning of the year, and the highest point appeared at the end of the second quarter, June 15, at 8825 yuan/ton. The maximum amplitude of the year was 54.39%. In 2022, the highest MTBE price will reach an eight year high.

The MTBE market in 2022 is generally divided into three stages: the first stage is from the beginning of the year to the first quarter, with the price rising rapidly unilaterally; The second stage is the second quarter, in which the price market first fluctuates and then rises rapidly; The third stage is from the beginning of the third quarter to the end of the third quarter, where the price fluctuates and falls.

Trend chart of average price of domestic MTBE producers in Shandong Province in 2022:

In the first stage, the domestic MTBE market rose significantly after the Lunar New Year holiday. During the festival, supported by the market’s concern about the shutdown of the Permian Basin, the largest shale oil producing area, caused by the snowstorm and severe cold weather in the United States, and the continuation of geopolitical tensions and other positive factors, the international oil price once surged to 93.27 dollars per barrel, hitting a new high for more than seven years. The international oil price rose sharply, giving strong support to the MTBE market. Boosted by the surge in crude oil and post holiday demand, gasoline prices also showed a significant increase compared with the pre holiday period. The sales of gasoline itself improved gradually, and the demand for raw material MTBE increased along with it. In February, affected by the Winter Olympic Games, some devices in Shandong Province were parked again. There were 7 enterprises in the area in parking, and the supply dropped sharply. Supported by the continuous rise of crude oil and gasoline, the market mentality has improved. In addition, the demand has increased, and businesses have actively followed the trend. In most regions, the price has risen to above the 7000 yuan/ton mark again. In March, the domestic MTBE market showed a “M” trend, showing a high and volatile trend. Crude oil is still at a high level, giving strong support to the market; Downstream demand increases, and business sales improve.

In the second stage, in April, the domestic MTBE market rose and fell with each other, and the transactions were different. Before the Tomb Sweeping Day, prices in various regions fell to low levels and transactions were light. The transportation and demand in some parts of the north have recovered. During the Tomb Sweeping Day holiday in Shandong, the demand has increased. The shipment of merchants has gradually improved. In addition, some factories in the area have stopped in succession. The overall supply is not much, and individual merchants have risen slightly. In May, the domestic MTBE market went up all the way, with an obvious upward trend. Macroscopically, crude oil is still at a high level, supporting the market mentality. On the other hand, there are still export orders in China, which leads to limited domestic spot resources, tight goods and rising prices, and merchants are actively rising. At the same time, the price of gasoline has risen, and the operating rate has further improved. The demand for raw materials has increased moderately, giving the market some demand support. In June, the domestic MTBE market fluctuated at a high level, following the crude oil market. The domestic MTBE market is still rising, and the rising trend is slowing down. The specific reasons are as follows: although crude oil is rising and falling, the price is still at a high level, which gives the market some psychological support; Gasoline prices continued to rise, with good overall demand; The temporary shutdown of major refinery units in some areas has greatly reduced the spot supply in the area, and the merchants are willing to push up again.

In the third stage, the domestic MTBE market declined significantly in July due to the low crude oil price shock. Affected by the sharp decline of crude oil, the market is pessimistic. Affected by the low price of crude oil market and sluggish demand, the domestic MTBE market in August September settled at a low price. After the National Day holiday, the MTBE market rose by a narrow margin. However, with the low price shock of crude oil and the sluggish demand for gasoline and diesel, the MTBE market turned upside down and went down unilaterally. By the end of the month, although there was a slight recovery, the overall market was still lower. In November, as the early MTBE market price fell to a low level, downstream businesses began to replenish at a low level. At the same time, export negotiations increased, foreign demand increased, and the MTBE market atmosphere became warmer. In addition, crude oil and gasoline rose continuously, and many enterprises raised their factory quotations to 7200 yuan/ton. In December, the crude oil continued to fall deeply, and the gasoline market also went down step by step. The market was pessimistic, and downstream businesses had low purchasing intentions. In addition, some logistics and transportation are restricted, the overall market attention is low, and merchants’ sales are blocked, so they have no choice but to adjust step by step. The price once fell to the low level at the end of January this year. In addition to the low demand, as some manufacturers such as Debao Road, Chengtai New Energy and Xinxin Park have started construction, the supply has increased, which also puts some pressure on the market.

From the perspective of 2022, MTBE is largely affected by crude oil and generally affected by supply and demand. Looking forward to 2023, the oil market will face macro pressure and economic recession cycle constraints. It also faces the game between the supply and demand sides. On the supply side, there are risks of Russian production decline and OEPC+production reduction. On the demand side, the macro cycle is suppressed, the supply and demand are depressed, and the demand growth in Asia is also supported. The oil market is subject to macro and micro multi empty influence, so it is more likely to maintain a wide range of shocks. Focus on: supply side, Russian output and export decline; Demand side, the process and time node of China’s recovery. To sum up, there is still some expectation of replenishment in the gasoline market before the Spring Festival holiday. Although MTBE manufacturers have no shipping pressure for the time being, they still focus on maintaining a reasonable low inventory before the Spring Festival holiday, and ensuring the shipping rhythm is the primary task. In the short term, the market tends to fluctuate slightly.

According to the monitoring data of the business community, the price trend of TDI in East China continued to rise this week. On December 30, the average market price in East China was 18800.00 yuan/ton, 4.06% higher than the price of 18066.67 yuan/ton at the end of last week, and 8.67% higher than the beginning of the month.

In the week, the TDI market was sorted up, the downstream still made inquiries on demand, followed up slowly, the supply side support was strong, the supplier’s multiple sets of TDI devices were overhauled, the market spot filling was slow, the trade market was bullish atmosphere was strong, the supplier’s offer rose, the market price was hard to find, the supplier led TDI price continued to move up, as of the 30th, the quotation range of domestic goods in the distribution market in East China was about 18500-18600 yuan/ton, and the quotation range of Shanghai goods was 18800-19000 yuan/ton, Negotiate based on actual orders.

The upstream toluene market declined weakly, and the price trend continued to fall. As of December 30, the domestic average price of toluene was about 5920.00 yuan/ton, an overall decline of 4.67% compared with 6210.00 yuan/ton on December 24. The crude oil price rose first and then fell, the raw material support was weak, the downstream procurement was active and low, the demand performance was weak, the trading atmosphere in the market was light, and the focus of the toluene market fell.

In the future market analysis, TDI data engineers of the business agency believe that the current TDI market spot filling is slow, the supplier support is good, the trade market supply is tight, and the offer is high and firm. Although the downstream demand is weak, the follow-up is weak, and the supplier market occupies a dominant position, in the short term, the TDI market is strong, and the specific attention is paid to the downstream follow-up.