Upstream enterprises have different shipments and traders are unstable. Most underground tourism enterprises such as Lubei purchase on demand. Crude oil fluctuates and coal prices are strong. Recently, the domestic methanol market has been stable. According to the monitoring of business agency, as of July 27, the average price of domestic methanol production enterprises in Shandong was 2585 yuan / ton, with a month on month increase of 2.17% and a year-on-year increase of 59.32%.

The methanol market in major regions in China is dominated by sorting, the downstream receiving is limited, the negotiation atmosphere is general, the shipment of production enterprises is stable, and the downstream purchases on demand. The spot transaction of methanol in the port area is light. Although delivery has been resumed in Taicang and Zhangjiagang reservoir areas, spot gas buying is still light because some expressways are still restricted.

Summary of methanol market prices in various regions as of July 27:

Region, price

Qinghai region 2180 yuan / ton factory withdrawal cash exchange

Shanxi region 2290-2300 yuan / ton factory withdrawal cash exchange

Liaoning region 2430-2450 yuan / ton factory delivery

Fujian region RMB 2650 / T ex warehouse spot exchange

Lianghu area Ex factory reference: 2570 yuan / ton factory withdrawal cash exchange

Anhui region 2560-2570 yuan / ton factory acceptance

Henan region 2405-2415 yuan / ton factory withdrawal cash exchange

Downstream, the formaldehyde market fell steadily. The market price of dimethyl ether returned to stable operation, some regions adjusted themselves, and the trading atmosphere was acceptable. The mainstream of domestic acetic acid market is stable. Recently, the market continues to be stable, and the market trading atmosphere is smooth.

In terms of external market, as of the closing on July 27, the closing price of CFR Southeast Asia methanol market was USD 385.00-386.00/t. The closing price of US Gulf methanol market is 115.00-116.00 cents / gallon; The closing price of FOB Rotterdam methanol market was 342.00-343.00 euros / ton, up 2 euros / ton.

region ., Country, closing price, up and down

Asia CFR Southeast Asia USD 385.00-386.00/t USD 0 / ton

Europe and America American Gulf 115.00-116.00 cents / gallon 0 cents / gallon

Europe FOB Rotterdam 342.00-343.00 euros / ton 2 euro / ton

Methanol analysts of business society expect that the short-term methanol market may be dominated by consolidation.

Trade name: titanium dioxide

Latest price (July 27): 21233.33 yuan / ton

Analysis points: on July 27, the main price of titanium dioxide in China was weak overall. At present, the demand for titanium dioxide is weak, the sulfuric acid price is up, the price of titanium concentrate is down, and the price of Longqi titanium dioxide is mainly stable, and the price of some manufacturers is slightly loose. Up to now, the tax bearing factory quotation of rutile titanium dioxide in China is 18500-21600 yuan / ton; The ex factory quotation of sharp titanium dioxide with tax is 16600-19000 yuan / ton.

Forecast: in the short term, the weak operation of white powder market is the main.

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the chloroform market fell slightly this week (7.19-7.23). The price of methane was 4152 yuan / ton on the third day of the week and 3980 yuan / ton on the weekend, with an overall slight decrease of 4.15%.

The price of raw liquid chlorine fell sharply, the price of methanol rose slightly, and the cost support was weak. According to the business agency, as of July 23, the price of methanol was 2585 yuan / ton, a slight increase of 1.27% compared with 2552 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week; The mainstream ex factory price of liquid chlorine of tank car in Shandong Province is about 900 yuan / ton.

Recently, there has been no significant increase in refrigerant sales. Affected by the increase of refrigerant inventory, there are many refrigerant unit maintenance, mainly negative.

Analysts of methane chloride data of business society believe that the cost side remains low at the stage, and the demand side support is weakened. It is expected that the trichloromethane market will continue to be weak in the later stage.

According to the data monitored by the business society, the domestic first class industrial grade potassium nitrate quotation at the beginning of the week was 5480.00 yuan / ton, while that of the first class domestic industrial grade product was 5680.00 yuan / ton at the weekend, up 3.65%, and the current price rose 15.45% on a month basis, and the current price rose 35.64% year on year.

This week, the domestic market of potassium nitrate moved upward, with the market supply continuously short, most of which were concentrated in the hands of large traders, covering the market and sparing sales, and the overall market transaction was slow. The supply and demand are unbalanced, the potassium nitrate market continues to rise, and the price is constantly rising. According to statistics of business agency: the domestic mainstream manufacturers of potassium nitrate offer 5200-5900 yuan / ton this week (quotation is for reference only), and different prices are offered according to the purchase situation.

Recently, the quotation of mainstream manufacturers of potassium chloride was vibrated and consolidated: on July 23, the KCl equipment of Qinghai Salt Lake Potash Fertilizer Co., Ltd. was in normal operation. The factory offer is about 2450 yuan / ton, and the quotation is stable temporarily, and the actual transaction price is mainly negotiated. On July 23, Anhui Badou Chemical Co., Ltd. will not offer any price for potassium chloride. In recent years, the market of potassium chloride continued to be high and strong, with imported potassium supply slightly supplemented, but large traders released less goods, and it is expected to be mainly high consolidation in the later period.

In the near future, the domestic potash market has slightly increased in supply, traders are shipping a small amount, and downstream on demand procurement. It is expected that the market of potassium nitrate will mainly increase in the short term, and the long-term market still needs to be seen（ The above prices are provided by major manufacturers of potassium nitrate all over the country and analyzed by the potassium carbonate analysts of business society. For reference only, please contact relevant manufacturers for more details.

International oil prices fell more than 6% in the previous trading day, and rose significantly on the 20th. The analysis points out that although the decision of major oil producing countries to increase production worries the market, it is expected that with the recovery of global demand, the supply and demand gap will still exist, and the international oil price is expected to continue to be supported.

As of the close of the 20th, the price of light crude oil for August delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose $1, or 1.51%, to close at $67.42 a barrel; London Brent crude for September delivery rose $0.73, or 1.06%, to $69.35 a barrel.

Affected by the adjustment of production by major oil producing countries and market concerns about the epidemic situation, oil prices in New York and London Brent fell sharply by 7.51% and 6.75% on the 19th, respectively, the biggest one-day drop since September 8 last year and March 18 this year.

The organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and non OPEC oil producing countries said on the 18th that they would extend the current production reduction agreement, which was originally due to expire in April 2022, to the end of 2022, and increase the average daily output by 400000 barrels from August this year. In addition, the meeting also decided to increase the production baseline of the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Kuwait and Iraq from May 2022, with a total increase of 1.632 million barrels per day. This has aroused market concern under the current epidemic situation.

However, analysts believe that the gradual increase in production agreements reached by major oil producing countries will not lead to a significant increase in market supply in the short term, but will help stabilize market expectations. The biggest variable facing the future oil price is still the trend of global epidemic, and the market may be more sensitive to this.

Helioma Croft, head of global commodity strategy at Royal Bank of Canada, believes that the market can absorb the increase of 400000 barrels of daily crude oil supply per month. Eugen Weinberg, an analyst at German commercial bank, said that the agreement reached between OPEC and non OPEC oil producing countries has solved internal differences, helped restore investor confidence and expectations, and is good for oil prices.

It is also pointed out that, from the perspective of supply and demand, although the market’s concern about the spread of the new coronavirus delta strain is increasing, global oil demand is still in the process of rapid recovery, and there is still a gap in oil supply in the short term, which is expected to continue to support oil prices.

OPEC said that with the acceleration of the new crown vaccination, the economy in most parts of the world is still recovering, there are obvious signs of growth in oil demand, and oil inventories in OECD countries are declining.

According to the prediction of the International Energy Agency, oil demand will rebound strongly in the second half of 2021, and the annual energy demand is expected to increase by 4.6%. Despite the gradual increase in supply from oil producing countries, the global oil market is still likely to face a daily average shortage of 1.5 million barrels in the second half of this year.

Affected by the impact of the epidemic, the international oil price fell to a negative value in April last year, and OPEC and non OPEC oil producing countries also reached an agreement on reducing production in the same month, with an average of 9.7 million barrels per day. Since the implementation of the production reduction agreement in May last year, the international oil price has gradually picked up. In April this year, the major oil producing countries decided to gradually increase oil production from May. At present, the reduction rate is about 5.8 million barrels per day.

Recent price trend of calcium carbide

As can be seen from the above figure, the factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China rose this week. This week, the factory quotations of the mainstream calcium carbide manufacturers in Northwest China rose from 4700.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 4966.67 yuan / ton at the end of the week, up 266.67 yuan / ton, or 5.67%, 106 / 73% higher than the same period last year. Overall, the calcium carbide market rose this week, with the commodity index of 130.13 on July 16.

Limit electricity and reduce production, calcium carbide in short supply

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the ex factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China rose this week: oviganone’s quotation of calcium carbide this weekend was 5000 yuan / ton, which was 300 yuan / ton higher than that at the beginning of the week; Inner Mongolia Zoomlion quoted 4900 yuan / ton of calcium carbide this weekend, which was 250 yuan / ton higher than that at the beginning of the week; Ningxia Xingping this weekend calcium carbide offer for 5000 yuan / ton, compared with the beginning of the week, the offer increased by 250 yuan / ton.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chain of calcium carbide, the price of raw materials in the upstream market was high this week. Shenmu’s quotation this week is 1400 yuan / ton; This week’s quotation is 1450 yuan / ton; The price of bulk material is 1500 yuan / ton this week. The price of raw materials in the upstream was high and the cost support was good, which had a positive impact on the price of calcium carbide.

Downstream market, PVC factory prices rose slightly this week. This week’s PVC quotation increased from 9000.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 9050.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, with an increase of 0.56%, and a year-on-year increase of 37.43%. This week, the price of PVC rose slightly, the market turned better, the maintenance of PVC was completed, and the purchasing enthusiasm of downstream calcium carbide increased. On the whole, this week’s PVC market had a positive impact on the price of calcium carbide.

The output of calcium carbide decreased, the downstream demand was better, and the market fluctuated slightly in the future

In late July, calcium carbide market fluctuated slightly and rose mainly. The price of raw material blue carbon was high and the cost of calcium carbide was well supported. The downstream PVC market turned better and the demand increased. However, due to the power restriction in Inner Mongolia, the burden of calcium carbide enterprises is reduced, and the supply of calcium carbide falls short of demand. It is predicted that the price of calcium carbide in Northwest China may rise slightly in late July.

1、 Price data

As of July 18, the average factory price of domestic domestic refining and hydrotreating naphtha was 6920.00 yuan / ton, down 0.53% from 6956.60 yuan / ton on July 12. The actual transaction price of local refining naphtha was about 6800-7000 yuan / ton.

As of July 18, the average factory price of domestic straight run naphtha was 6795.00 yuan / ton, down 0.84% from 6852.50 yuan / ton on July 12. The actual transaction price of direct distillation naphtha was about 6700-6800 yuan / ton.

On July 18, the naphtha commodity index was 85.41, which was flat with yesterday, down 16.77% from 102.62 points (2012-09-24), the highest point in the cycle, and 102.20% higher than the lowest point of 42.24 on July 19, 2016（ Note: period refers to the period from September 1, 2012 to now

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Naphtha prices fell slightly this week, and the refining market was weak this week, and downstream procurement was required.

Upstream: international crude oil prices fell, the Fed’s position was wobbling under high inflation, the CPI in June rose beyond expectations, and the market generally worried about the tightening of monetary policy caused by high inflation pressure; OPEC + policies were implemented, and the agreement on production increase was reached, and the market expected to increase supply; Under the severe trend of multi-national epidemic situation, the implementation of blockade measures to suppress fuel demand, etc.

Downstream: according to the monitoring of business agency, the price of toluene fell this week, with the price of toluene at 5860 yuan / ton on July 11, and that of July 18 at 5780 yuan / T, down 80 yuan / ton from last week, or 1.37%. The price of mixed xylene fell this week, with the price of mixed xylene of 6000 yuan / ton on July 11, and that of 5920 yuan / ton on July 18, down 80 yuan / T, or 1.33% from last week. In terms of PX market, the domestic PX price remained stable this week, with the price of 7100 yuan / ton.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of business society, there are 6 commodities rising in the energy sector in the list of commodity prices rising and falling in the 28th week (7.12-7.16) in 2021, with the top three commodities rising respectively as LNG (3.75%), power coal (2.29%), and liquefied gas (1.52%). There are 9 commodities falling on a month-on-month basis, with 1 commodity falling more than 5%, accounting for 6.3% of the monitored commodities in the sector; The top three products were coke (-5.26%), WTI crude oil (-3.90%), Brent crude oil (-2.75%). This week, the average rise and fall was -0.49 per cent.

3、 Future forecast

Energy analysts of business society believe that the recent fluctuation of international crude oil prices, limited cost support of naphtha market, and slow release of terminal and aromatics demand have led to poor market activity. Downstream on demand procurement is the main, market wait-and-see sentiment is strong, and it is expected that naphtha refining will be weak in the near future.

Price trend

According to the data of the business club’s block list, the domestic POM market continued a positive trend in the first half of July, with the spot prices of various brands rising at a high level. As of July 16, the average offer price of the POM injection molding sample enterprises in the business community was about 17000 yuan / ton, up 4.72% from the average price level at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

POM upstream formaldehyde, enter July, Shandong formaldehyde Market High fell. The market of raw material methanol was slightly up, and the support for formaldehyde was acceptable. At present, affected by the rainy weather, the starting situation of plate factories in Shandong is general, the demand continues to be low, and the purchasing capacity is limited. At present, the atmosphere of Shandong formaldehyde trading market is relatively cold, the transaction is not good, the formaldehyde manufacturers are difficult to ship, and the focus of formaldehyde market is constantly moving down. It is expected that the price of formaldehyde in Shandong will fluctuate in the short term.

High upstream prices fell, POM cost side support weakened, and the main advantage in the first half of July was still supply side tightening. The delivery period of on-site orders is relatively extended, and the manufacturers mainly complete the prerequisite orders, while the on-site supply is gradually reduced. The inventory of traders decreased, the willingness to report high was clear, and some of them were reluctant to sell. Due to the impact of environmental protection policies such as short-term electricity, the industry load further reduced to 80%. The downstream enterprises still accept the passive follow-up replenishment due to the decrease of the source of goods when the cost pressure increases. The spot price of domestic POM is rising at a high level, and the reference price of Tianye Chemical M90 is about 16100 yuan / ton, with real order negotiation. Yuntianhua M90 ex factory reference price of 17900 yuan / ton, firm offer negotiation. The POM unit of Shenhua Ningmei coal works normally. The reference price of mc90 is about 17000 yuan / ton, with cash withdrawal. I heard that the on-site inquiry was much higher than the official price, and the price increased frequently.

Future forecast

Business analysts believe that: in early July, the trend of domestic POM market rose at a high level. The price of upstream formaldehyde has fallen, and the cost support of POM has been weakened. Market supply is in short supply, and the supply side has a strong positive effect on the market. On the demand side, the terminal enterprises follow up passively to maintain production, and the merchants have a positive attitude. The resumption of some production lines in the later stage may alleviate the supply, but the current shortage situation is deep, so it is expected that the POM market will still be strong in the short term.

Trade name: titanium dioxide

Latest price (July 13): 21233.33 yuan / ton

Analysis points: on July 13, the domestic titanium dioxide market center moved down, and the overall price was weak. There is a strong wait-and-see mentality in the trading market, traders are more cautious in taking goods, mainly purchasing on demand, and the weak atmosphere is obvious. The price of raw materials decreased slightly, the quotation of some titanium dioxide manufacturers was loose, and the price range gradually widened. The new order transaction situation is general, mainly to deliver early orders. The actual transaction price shall be determined on a single basis. It is expected that the white powder market will be weak in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business association, this week’s soda ash market was stable and small. From the beginning of the week to the end of the week, the average market price was about 1902 yuan / ton, up 49.37% over the same period last year. On July 11, the commodity index of light soda ash was 97.54, which was the same as yesterday, decreased by 17.24% compared with 117.86 (2017-11-21), the highest point in the cycle, and increased by 54.46% compared with 63.15, the lowest point on November 18, 2015（ Note: period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now

2、 Market analysis

According to the monitoring data of the business club, the price in East China is stable and small, and the current mainstream market price of light soda ash is about 1900-2000 yuan / ton. The price of soda ash in North China is temporarily stable, and the current mainstream market price of light soda ash is about 1800-1900 yuan / ton. The price of soda ash in Central China is temporarily stable, and the current mainstream market price of light soda ash is about 1800-1900 yuan / ton. Generally speaking, the price of short-term soda ash is mainly high.

Upstream and demand: the turnover of upstream raw salt is good, the market price is slightly up, and it is expected that the finishing market of raw salt will mainly run in the later stage. The price of downstream glass rose slightly this week. According to the monitoring of business news agency, the price of glass rose slightly this week. The average price of glass was 35.35 yuan / square meter last Friday and 35.59 yuan / square meter this Friday. The price of glass rose within the week by 0.68%. In terms of different regions, in Shahe of North China, the recent situation of enterprises leaving the warehouse is better, the inventory of manufacturers is low, the supply of traders is not much, and the spot market price is rising. The overall trend of the market in South China is acceptable, with the focus of transaction moving up. Central China is in a good situation of outbound, and downstream rigid demand procurement is more active.

According to the price monitoring of business association, in the price rise and fall list of chlor alkali industry in the 27th week of 2021 (7.5-7.9), there are 2 kinds of commodities rising, 0 kinds of commodities falling, and 3 kinds of commodities falling to 0. The main commodities rising were caustic soda (0.95%) and PVC (0.14%); The average rise and fall this week was 0.22%.

Business analysts believe that: the domestic soda price is stable, the market trading atmosphere is relatively stable, and manufacturers are mainly active in shipping. The price of downstream glass is strong, but the high price of soda is still in a wait-and-see state. Overall, soda late market consolidation operation based, specific to the downstream market demand.