1、 Price trend

According to the business news agency’s block list data, this week’s domestic propylene (Shandong) market was mainly stable in the early stage, and declined at the weekend. At the beginning of the week, the price was 8114 yuan / ton, and at the end of the week, the price was 8043 yuan / ton, with a weekly decrease of 0.88%; On May 25 and 26, the weekly high price was 8119 yuan / ton, with a weekly amplitude of 0.93%.

2、 Analysis and comment

According to the price chart of the business association, the propylene price in Shandong continued to rise in the first ten days of April, fell sharply in the last ten days, and remained stable at the end of the month. During the May Day period, the first two days continued to be stable. From the 3rd to the 7th, the daily price rose by about 50 yuan / ton. From the 9th, the price was mainly stable. After a small rise on the 13th, the price was stabilized again. From the 17th, the daily price began to decline by 50 yuan / ton. On the 19th and 20th, the price of propylene dropped by about 100 yuan / ton. From the 23rd, the price of propylene rose by 50 yuan / ton. From the 25th, the price continued to stabilize. On the 27th, the price of individual manufacturers dropped slightly, Today, the whole line finally dropped slightly. The current market transaction is between 8000-8200 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is about 8000 yuan / ton. On May 27, the US propylene price remained stable, while the Asian propylene price fell, which had a small negative impact on the propylene market. Propylene market inventory is not much, part of the unit maintenance is not over, no external quotation.

Recently, the international crude oil market has witnessed constant events, and the price fluctuates. The crude oil price rose slightly on May 27, which has limited impact on the propylene market.

This week, PP prices rose slightly and then stabilized, with a weekly increase of 0.39%. The futures market was general, with little impact on propylene.

This week, the price of acrylic acid remained stable, unchanged, and had no impact on propylene.

This week, the market of propylene oxide showed a ladder like decline, with a weekly decline of 6.07%, which had a negative impact on propylene.

Epichlorohydrin market this week after a small downward stable, weekly decline of 1.20%, little impact on propylene.

This week, the domestic n-butanol price showed a double peak trend, with no weekly rise or fall, and the weekly amplitude was 0.45%, which had limited impact on the propylene market.

This week, the price of isooctanol fell after rising, with a weekly increase of 0.23% and a weekly amplitude of 1.13%. The impact on propylene was also limited.

Isopropanol prices continued to fall sharply this week, with a weekly drop of 8.94%, which had a negative impact on propylene.

This week, the market price of phenol in East China also showed a step-by-step decline, with a weekly decline of 3.49%, which had a small inhibitory effect on propylene.

This week, the quotation of acetone manufacturers in East China market dropped sharply and then stabilized, with a weekly decline of 11.45%, which also has a great effect on propylene suppression.

This week, the market price of acrylonitrile rose slightly and then fell, with a weekly decline of 0.14% and a weekly amplitude of 0.28%, which had little impact on propylene.

3、 Future forecast

Propylene analyst of business society Chemical Branch said: Overall, domestic inventory is still small, some units are overhauled, enterprises suspend quotation, crude oil market rises slightly, some downstream units resume work slightly, the market is stable or empty, some downstream downtrend is obvious, propylene is expected to continue to fall slightly.

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, as of May 25, the reference price of domestic industrial grade propylene glycol was 16900 yuan / ton, compared with the reference price of 18066 yuan / ton on May 14, the average price was reduced by 1166 yuan / ton, a decrease of 6.46% on May 10; Compared with May 1 (reference price 18100 yuan / ton), the average price decreased by 1200 yuan / ton, a decrease of 6.63%.

Starting from late May, the domestic propylene glycol market continued to decline and entered the end of the month. In terms of raw materials, the loose market of propylene oxide weakened the support of propylene glycol. In addition, due to the continuous downward impact, the overall trading atmosphere of the market was weak, the transaction orders were general, and the downstream demand was just needed, so the purchasing was cautious. In terms of exports, at present, the export orders of propylene glycol have also decreased, and the support of favorable export has also weakened. Under the weak support of many parties, the domestic propylene glycol ex factory price was lowered again on the 24th and 25th, with a reduction range of 300-400 yuan / ton. At present, as of the 25th, the reference price of propylene glycol in Shandong is about 16600-17000 yuan / ton, that in South China is about 17000-17400 yuan / ton, and that in East China is about 16900-17200 yuan / ton.

Upstream, in late May, the domestic propylene oxide market fell first and then stabilized. Since the 17th, the propylene oxide market has been weak, and the purchasing attitude of the middle and lower reaches is cautious. With the sharp reduction of the price, the downstream inquiry enthusiasm has increased, and the market delivery has improved. With the easing of the inventory pressure of the representative factory, the price has stopped falling and stabilized. At present, the purchasing enthusiasm of the downstream is general, but there is no big pressure on the factory inventory. The supply and demand game, and the market is temporarily stable. Wait and see on the 25th, The mainstream price of propylene oxide Market in Shandong is around 17300-17600 yuan / ton.

Bad news accounts for more, propylene glycol market is weak and stable, there are still downside risks

At present, from the market performance at the end of the month, the performance of domestic propylene glycol in raw materials and demand is relatively weak, the market trading atmosphere is also general, and the short-term factors to boost the market are not clear. Therefore, the propylene glycol analysts of the business community believe that the domestic propylene glycol market will maintain weak operation in the near days of the end of the month, There is a risk that the market’s high-end quotation will continue to decline.

Domestic PTA futures prices rebounded slightly. As of May 25, the average price in the spot market was 4685 yuan / ton, up 1.36% over the previous trading day and 31.08% over the same period last year. The main futures 2109 closed at 4728 yuan / ton, up 100 yuan / ton, or 2.16%.

In the middle of May, with the restart of early maintenance equipment, PTA supply showed an upward trend. In terms of inventory, according to statistics, as of May 20, PTA social inventory has declined to 2.7813 million tons, 2.68 percentage points lower than that of last week. Although there is a downward trend, the decline is slightly narrower than that of last week. But recently, Fuhai’s 4.5 million ton plant took off and dropped to 80% on the 20th, and the 2.5 million ton plant of Hengli No.5 is expected to be overhauled in early June for two weeks. At the same time, the test run of Yisheng new material new plant is delayed, boosting the PTA price in the short term. It is reported that due to the adjustment of plant load, Yisheng contract reduced by 50% in June and Hengli supply reduced by 40% in June.

In addition, recent crude oil continued to rebound, driving PTA cost center upward. On May 25, international oil prices rose slightly. The settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures market in the United States was US $66.07/barrel, up US $0.02. Brent crude oil futures market settlement price of the main contract at 68.65 U.S. dollars / barrel, or 0.19 U.S. dollars. Affected by this, the PX market was boosted. As of the 25th, the Asian PX FOB price in South Korea was $838 / T, and the CFR price in China was $858 / T.

Downstream Jiangsu and Zhejiang polyester consolidation, production and marketing is tepid. By the 25th, the overall polyester operating rate was around 89%. In terms of production and marketing, the production and marketing of mainstream factories are basically concentrated at about 30% – 50%, and the production and marketing of individual factories are better, reaching about 90%. In terms of inventory, the overall inventory of polyester market is concentrated in 11-24 days, of which POY inventory is 8-11 days, FDY inventory is around 11-15 days, and DTY inventory is about 14-27 days. Due to the stronger cost, polyester factory has the intention to raise the price.

Xia Ting, an analyst at business news agency, believes that PTA prices will rise in the short term due to load reduction, maintenance expectation and rising crude oil. However, the regulatory level will stabilize the price and guarantee the supply, and the bulk commodity market will cool down as a whole. Considering that the downstream demand is tired, or it will restrict PTA’s rebound space, it is expected that PTA prices will remain volatile by the end of the month, but the increase will not be too big.

According to the price monitoring of business news agency, the trend of sulfur price in East China this week went up. The average price of sulfur production was 1513.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 1550.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, with an increase of 2.24% in the week and 4.26% compared with the beginning of the month.

This week, the domestic sulfur market was stable and upward. The inventory of refineries in various regions was low, and the shipment performance was stable. The purchase of downstream factories in the market was fair, mainly on demand. The price of gold plate in the United States was high, and the mentality of the industry was positive. During the week, the domestic refineries adjusted their prices according to their own shipment situation, and Sinopec’s solid and liquid sulfur prices in North China and Shandong increased at the same time, with an increase of 20-30 yuan / ton; In East China, the price of solid sulfur is increased by 40-50 yuan / ton, while the price of liquid sulfur is temporarily stable. As of the 21st, the regional price of sulfur in China is as follows:

region varieties May 21st

East China Sulfur (particle) 1600-1660 yuan / ton

North China Sulfur (particle) 1460-1530 yuan / ton

Shandong Province Sulfur (particle) 1500-1550 yuan / ton

In the downstream phosphate fertilizer market, the price of Monoammonium increased steadily, the export orders were good, the domestic demand was weak, the operating rate of enterprises decreased and the market price rose in the week; The domestic market of diammonium is weak and stable, and the demand is general. The domestic spring ploughing fertilizer is over, the summer market has not been opened, the market demand of ammonium phosphate is weak, and the future market is stable. In terms of sulfuric acid, the downstream demand was general, and the market trading was weak. The price trend in Shandong continued to decline, with a decline of 5.23% in the week. In the later period, the price of sulfuric acid was weak and stable.

Sulfur analysts of business news agency believe that the domestic sulfur market is stable and improving, the inventory of refineries in various regions remains low, the supply and demand performance is relatively stable, coupled with the high and stable support of the US gold plate, the short-term sulfur market is temporarily stable, and the downstream follow-up situation is concerned.

Trade name: urea

Latest price (May 24): 2300.00 yuan / ton

On May 24, the ex factory quotation of urea in Shandong increased by 10 yuan / ton, or 0.43%, compared with the quotation on May 21. The prices of upstream natural gas and coal have fallen sharply recently, and the cost support is general. On the demand side: the agricultural demand of various regions has been followed up in succession; The start-up load of downstream compound fertilizer and rubber sheet plants increased slightly, most of them were used as they were mined, and the manufacturers had less inventory. Supply side: in recent years, some enterprises in Shandong, Xinjiang, Shaanxi and other places have been overhauled, and the supply side has been tightened. At the same time, the enterprise inventory and social inventory have also been maintained at a low position. India bid: India RCF issued a new round of urea import bidding on May 18 and opened the bid on May 25. Purchase quantity and price will affect the next domestic urea market trend.

It is expected that the ex factory price of urea in Shandong will rise slightly in the future: the average price quoted by the manufacturer is about 2350 yuan / ton.

1、 Price trend

According to commodity data monitoring, isopropanol prices fell this week. The average price of isopropanol in China was 8800 yuan / ton last Friday, and 7900 yuan / ton on Friday, and the price fell sharply in the week, with an amplitude of 10.23%.

2、 Market analysis

Figure: comparison of the price trend of acetone and isopropanol in March to May

Isopropanol prices fell sharply this week. International side may 18, the United States isopropanol closed down, European isopropanol market closed down. Up to now, the domestic Shandong isopropanol quotation range is about 7200-8300 yuan / ton, Jiangsu isopropanol quotation range is about 7700-8400 yuan / ton. The quotation range of isopropanol in Zhejiang is about 7500 yuan / ton. The raw material acetone fell, the start rate of the East China acetone isopropanol plant increased, the downstream wait-and-see sentiment was obvious, the site inquiry was general, the trading and investment in isopropanol was empty, and the price was lower.

In terms of raw acetone, the domestic acetone market fell significantly this week. The average domestic acetone price last Friday was 7400 yuan / ton, the average price of this Friday was 6875 yuan / ton, and the price fell within the week, with a range of 7.09%. The domestic acetone market continued to decline, the market holding companies were under pressure, the offer kept falling, the downstream terminal factory replenishment sentiment was difficult to change, the market low-price goods source frequently occurred, and the rise in phenol in the same unit in the early stage was obvious, and the finishing and commencement of phenol ketone plant in the factory was at a high level.

In terms of raw propylene, the overall price of propylene market this week has been down. The average domestic propylene price last Friday was 8371.18 yuan / ton, and the average price on Friday was 8034.82 yuan / ton, and the price fell within the week, with an amplitude of 4.02%. At present, there are few domestic stocks, some units are overhauled, and the enterprises suspend quotation. The crude oil market has been significantly lower, and the downstream operating rate is generally general. It is expected that propylene will continue to decline with the fluctuation of crude oil market.

3、 Future forecast

According to isopropanol analyst of the chemical branch of business society, the export orders abroad are generally in the current view. The price of raw acetone decreased obviously, the start rate of the East China acetone isopropanol plant increased, the spot supply was sufficient, and the delivery pressure of the carrier was relatively high. The mentality of buying up or falling is due to the fact that the downstream is mainly waiting and the atmosphere of trading and investment in the field is empty. It is expected that isopropanol will remain the main one in the short term.

Recently, the market of dimethyl ether is going further and further up. At present, the price of most domestic regions has risen more than 4000 yuan / ton. According to the data monitoring of business news agency, the average price of dimethyl ether in Henan market was 3185.00 yuan / ton on May 6 and 3910.00 yuan / ton on May 19, with an increase of 13.01% and 63.37% over the same period last year. As of May 18, the domestic market prices of dimethyl ether are as follows:

region Specifications date offer

Shandong Province Mass fraction of dimethyl ether: ≥ 99.0% May 18th 4050 yuan / ton

Hebei Province Mass fraction of dimethyl ether: ≥ 99.0% May 18th 4050 yuan / ton

Henan Province Mass fraction of dimethyl ether: ≥ 99.0% May 18th 4010-4020 yuan / ton

In May, the price of dimethyl ether continued to rise. According to the annual comparison chart of dimethyl ether price of business community, it can be seen that the current dimethyl ether Market in Henan is at a relatively high point. Compared with the previous two years, the price is higher than that of the same period. At present, the price in all regions of China has risen to more than 4000 yuan / ton.

Although the market price of dimethyl ether is still rising, the increase is obviously narrower than that in the earlier period. With the continuous consumption of the positive in the early stage, dimethyl ether rose to a relatively high level, but the ability of the lower reaches to accept the high price was limited, their attitude was more cautious, and their enthusiasm for entering the market was weakened. And in terms of demand, the rising weather temperature and the limited terminal consumption capacity have brought obvious constraints to the market. Looking at the cost of methanol market, because the early rise of raw materials is good, but the recent methanol market in some parts of the market has come down, the domestic market rise and fall are different, which brings limited benefits to the dimethyl ether Market, so the rise of dimethyl ether is narrower than that in the early stage.

The cost of methanol market is mixed. Shandong methanol Lubei market 2580 yuan / ton to cash. The methanol market in the southern part of Shandong negotiated to 2720 yuan / ton, and the nearby factory withdraws cash. Linyi receives the local goods to negotiate the price to 2680-2700 yuan / ton and deliver them to the spot exchange, while the logistics goods offer the price to 2600-2630 yuan / ton and deliver them to the spot exchange. The turnover of methanol market in central Shandong was 2600-2610 yuan / ton, which was delivered to cash. The market turnover was light and the negotiation atmosphere was cautious. The methanol market in Henan was narrow and low, and the trading was deadlocked. The bidding transaction price of Henan’s main enterprises was 2570 yuan / ton, which was 30-35 yuan / ton lower than that of May 17; Other enterprises offer lower, reference price 2630-2640 yuan / ton, factory cash; Luoyang market offer reference 2630 yuan / ton can spot exchange. The methanol market in the two lakes area was higher, and the buying was more wait-and-see. Hubei Main enterprises offer up, other enterprises offer stable, ex factory reference 2750-2800 yuan / ton factory withdrawal spot exchange; Hunan market offer reference 2920-2960 yuan / ton to spot exchange.

At present, although the raw material methanol market is somewhat loose, the current price is still strong, and the favorable effects on the market still exist. LPG civil market in the international crude oil rose slightly under the favorable market has warmed up. On the supply side, the dimethyl ether market still maintains low load operation, with low supply supporting high price. It is expected that the price of dimethyl ether will be strong in the short term. However, negative factors still exist. As the weather temperature rises and the off-season is coming, the dimethyl ether Market is expected to weaken in the long term.

The recent trend of isooctanol price

As can be seen from the above figure, the factory price of isooctanol in Shandong Province rose this week. This week, the average price of the mainstream factory quotation of isooctanol in Shandong Province rose from 16500.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 16700.00 yuan / ton at the weekend, up 1.21%, up 179.89% compared with the same period last year. Overall, the market for isooctanol rose this week, with the isooctanol commodity index of 122.79 on May 14.

Factory maintenance, insufficient supply, superimposed upstream support

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the factory quotation of Shandong mainstream ISO octanol manufacturers increased this week: the price of isooctanol of Jianlan Chemical Co., Ltd. was 16700 yuan / ton this weekend, which was 300 yuan / ton higher than that at the beginning of the week; Lihuayi offered 16600 yuan / ton of isooctanol this weekend, which was up 300 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week; Hualuhengsheng quoted 16800 yuan / ton of isooctanol this week, which is temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the week. Recently, there are many shutdown and maintenance of isooctanol units, the overall operating rate of isooctanol industry has declined, the spot supply of isooctanol is tight, and the market has been in short supply.

From the upstream and downstream industrial chain, the raw material market in the upstream of isooctanol was in a high position consolidation this week, with the quotation rising from 8313.91 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 8371.18 yuan / ton at the weekend, up 0.69%, up 26.83% compared with the same period last year. The upstream raw material market price rose slightly, which had a positive effect on the price of isooctanol due to the influence of supply and demand.

The downstream market of isooctanol, DOP factory prices rose slightly this week. DOP quotation rose from 13600.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 13725.00 yuan / ton at the weekend, up 0.92%, up 103.84% compared with the same period last year. The downstream DOP price rose slightly, downstream customers had a good enthusiasm for octanol procurement and better demand for isooctanol.

It will take time for plant plant to resume work, and the supply tension in isooctanol market will continue in the short term

In the late May, the market trend of isooctanol in Shandong rose slightly. Overall, the main reason for the recent rise in the price of isooctanol is the shutdown and maintenance of the unit and the insufficient supply of products. Although the price of isooctanol has reached the peak, it will take time for the plant to resume the plant, and the supply tension in the butanol market will continue in the short term. Therefore, analysts of isooctanol of business agency believe that in the middle of May, the domestic butanol market may fluctuate slightly, and the price may be lower in late May.

On May 13, international oil prices fell sharply. The settlement price of the main contract in the US WTI crude oil futures market was $63.82/barrel, down $2.26 or 3.4%. The settlement price of the main contract in Brent crude oil futures market was US $67.05/barrel, down US $2.27 or 3.3%. On Thursday, the oil price plummeted by more than 3%. This was mainly due to the severe epidemic situation in India, which rekindled market worries, and the resumption of operation of the U.S. fuel pipeline, which was unable to operate due to the previous cyber attack, adding to the macro aspect, and the increase of U.S. inflation expectations, The market’s concern about the Fed’s expectation of raising interest rates also pushed the pause button for the rise of oil prices.

At the macro level, with the release of the US inflation data, the global market’s inflation concerns have intensified, and the resulting concerns about the Fed’s interest rate increase have spread to the field of risk assets, and the decline of oil prices has also been affected to some extent. Specifically, CPI in the United States rose 4.2% year on year in April, setting a new high since September 2008, with the expectation of 3.6% and the previous value of 2.6%; Among them, core CPI rose 3% year on year, expected to be 2.3% and the previous value was 1.6%. After the data was released, the probability of the US money market believing that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by 25 basis points in December 2022 rose from 88% to 100%. On Thursday, the US will also release April PPI data, which is expected to rise 5.9% year on year.

Previously, the largest fuel pipeline system in the United States was closed after being attacked by hackers. Due to the importance of this fuel pipeline, nearly half of the fuel supply on the east coast of the United States was affected, resulting in a shortage of fuel and rising prices in the East Coast states. It resumed on Thursday after six days of closure, greatly easing the market’s previous tight supply sentiment and lowering oil prices. It is reported that at the initial stage of the system restart, the pipeline fuel supply in some areas may be unstable, and it will still take several days to fully recover to the normal level.

With the resumption of fuel pipeline operation in the United States, the bad supply has further strengthened the concern of demand, and the aggravation of the epidemic in India has made the market return to the expected variables of demand recovery.

In the past 24 hours, there have been 362727 new confirmed cases and 4120 new deaths in India, with a total of more than 23.7 million confirmed cases and 258317 deaths, according to statistics released by the Ministry of health on the 13th. On the surface of the data, the epidemic situation is still aggravating. The mutated virus complicates the epidemic situation in India and even Southeast Asia. India is the third largest oil importer in the world, which is bound to further damage oil demand.

According to the business news agency, the sharp drop in oil prices on Thursday is a release of accumulated risks in the early stage. In terms of fundamentals, oil prices still have strong support. From the data of US commercial crude oil inventory last week, crude oil inventory continued to decrease, US exports also declined, China’s data also showed a bright performance, and oil imports also showed a growth momentum, It shows that the recovery process of the world’s major economies is accelerating. It is expected that the short-term oil price will intensify the shock, and the medium and long-term oil price will still have upward momentum.

According to the price monitoring data of business news agency, as of May 14, the average reference average price of domestic n-propanol containing packaging in mainstream areas was around 8833 yuan / ton, which was 333 yuan / ton lower than that on May 1, a decrease of 3.57%.

In the first ten days of May, the domestic n-propanol market was slightly under pressure

After the May holiday, the domestic n-propanol market as a whole maintained a weak and stable operation in the first week. Affected by the inventory pressure, the dealers in some regions slightly reduced the ex factory price of n-propanol by 100-200 yuan / ton. The price adjustment had little impact on the trading atmosphere, and the overall operation remained stable until the middle of the month.

Until the 13th, affected by the pressure of demand, the spot suppliers of n-propanol in Shandong Province reduced the ex factory price of n-propanol by 300-600 yuan / ton. In Shandong Province, the ex factory price of n-propanol loose water is about 7500-8300 yuan / ton, and the ex factory price of n-propanol including package is about 8400-9500 yuan / ton. In Nanjing, the market of n-propanol is relatively stable. The factory price of n-propanol and n-propanol is about 7500-8500 yuan / ton. In Nanjing Rongxin chemical, the 30000 ton / year n-propanol plant is in normal operation, and the factory price of n-propanol is about 8500 yuan / ton.

Upstream, the recent external ethylene market as a whole showed a rising trend. On May 12, the price of ethylene in Asia was 1148-1154 USD / T in Northeast Asia and 1093-1099 USD / T in Southeast Asia. In the US ethylene market, FD US Gulf quoted 853-865 US dollars / ton. Recently, the US ethylene market has been stable and the demand is poor. In the European ethylene market, FD northwest Europe quoted us $1258-1271 / T, CIF northwest Europe quoted us $1277-1288 / T. generally speaking, the trading atmosphere of the whole ethylene external market is acceptable in the near future, and the market continues to rise.

The demand is relatively stable, and the overall short-term market fluctuates little

At present, the downstream consumer market of n-propanol is mainly used for the production of n-Propyl Acetate, and the demand in this field accounts for about 65%. Business community propanol analysts believe that propanol contract users are mainly manufacturers, the demand is relatively stable, so the overall market volatility is small. However, I heard recently that the n-propanol production plant of Nanjing n-propanol production plant has a parking plan, and the inventory in the plant is reduced. In the short term, the domestic n-propanol market price may slightly callback. More attention should be paid to the cost of raw materials and the supply of goods.