According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic BDO market continues to be weak. From March 1st to 31st, BDO prices fell from 8285 yuan/ton to 7958 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 3.95% during the period and a year-on-year price drop of 14.69%.
In the first half of the month, although the industry’s capacity utilization rate was low, it supported the supplier’s mentality of keeping prices. However, the overall downstream load has declined, leading to a reduction in the amount of raw material digestion, and the transmission of industrial chain costs has been hindered, resulting in a strong bargaining sentiment towards raw materials. At the same time, new production capacity is expected to produce products, and holding manufacturers are offering discounts for shipments, resulting in a volatile downward trend in the market.
In mid month, the domestic BDO market experienced a weak downturn. Recently, the load on the equipment has not been high, and there is support from the supply side. The supplier’s intention to maintain price stability continues. But as new production capacity emerges, downstream bearish sentiment increases. Some of the manufacturers holding the goods lack confidence in their offers, and they are negotiating narrow discounts for actual orders, causing the market center of gravity to fluctuate downward.
At the end of the month, the domestic BDO market experienced a range decline. Multiple sets of equipment maintenance, agent replacement, and defect elimination have led to a decline in industry capacity utilization and a stable market mentality among suppliers. However, downstream industries have also experienced a decline in production, resulting in a reduction in raw material digestion and a narrow decline in market prices.
As the end of the month approaches, the domestic BDO market remains weak and cautious. Although new production capacity has been put into operation one after another, some old facilities have been shut down for maintenance, providing support for the supply side. And the online sales price is relatively high, indicating the supplier’s intention to maintain the price. Downstream industry contracts follow up, spot purchases are cautious, supply and demand games continue, and the market center of gravity is weak.
Supply side: There have been significant fluctuations in the equipment sector, and a cautious wait-and-see attitude has increased. However, after some old devices were shut down for maintenance, the overall industry growth was limited, and the Shandong Alliance stopped on March 27th, providing some support for the supply side. The supply of BDO is affected by favorable factors.
In terms of cost, raw material calcium carbide: There has been a significant increase in the supply of calcium carbide in the domestic market, and the impact of power restrictions has weakened. The production of maintenance equipment in the early stage has gradually recovered, and the supply has increased significantly. The domestic calcium carbide market is stable with small fluctuations. The domestic methanol market is operating strongly, with a price of 2590 yuan/ton in Taicang, China as of 2:00 pm on March 31st. The prices of raw materials such as calcium carbide and methanol are relatively strong, and the cost of BDO is influenced by favorable factors.
On the demand side, there are many PTMEG maintenance devices downstream of the main force, resulting in a significant decline in industry load; The PBT and PBAT industries have seen an increase in load, with little fluctuation in other downstream industries, resulting in a slight reduction in overall demand for raw materials. Additionally, under cost pressure, there is a bargaining sentiment towards raw material inventory. The demand side of BDO is affected by bearish factors.
In the future forecast, the industry’s capacity utilization rate is still relatively low, supported by supply side inventory. With the restart of PTMEG maintenance equipment and the increase in new production capacity, the overall downstream demand will increase. Business Society BDO analysts predict that the domestic BDO market will fluctuate within a certain range.