According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic price of sodium metabisulfite remained weak in February 2024. The average price of industrial grade sodium metabisulfite on February 1st was 2400.00 yuan/ton, and on February 28th it was 2316.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.47% within the month.

Entering February, due to the basic end of downstream stocking before the year and the weakening of domestic sodium metabisulfite market trading before the holiday, the overall price of domestic sodium metabisulfite market remained stable and advanced before the holiday.

After the year, enterprises gradually resumed work, and upstream soda ash prices continued to decline weakly. Raw material costs fluctuated and decreased, and downstream trading entities increased their wait-and-see attitude. Manufacturers successively lowered the factory price of sodium metabisulfite, driving the domestic market price of sodium metabisulfite to continue to decline weakly.

As of February 28th, domestic soda ash prices have continued to decline weakly, falling by 7.17% within the month, while sulfur prices have slightly rebounded, rising by 8.57% within the month. The fluctuation of soda ash prices has a direct impact on domestic sodium metabisulfite prices, and the continued weakness of soda ash prices will further suppress the domestic market price of sodium metabisulfite in the future.

Future Market Forecast

According to analysts from Business Society, under the dual pressure of cost and demand, it is expected that there will still be some downward space in the domestic market price of sodium metabisulfite in March.

Recent price trends of hydrochloric acid

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic hydrochloric acid market price remained stable this week, with an average market price of 95 yuan/ton. Over the weekend, the price decreased by 45.40% year-on-year.

Upstream support is average, downstream demand weakens

From the supply side perspective, the domestic hydrochloric acid market prices have slightly declined this week, with manufacturers operating average and inventory low.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chain of hydrochloric acid, the upstream liquid chlorine market has recently stabilized at a low level, with average cost support. The downstream ammonium chloride market has slightly declined. The market price dropped from 622.50 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 590 yuan/ton over the weekend, a decrease of 5.22%, and the weekend price fell 51.04% year-on-year. As of now, the production of ammonium chloride combined alkali has increased to around 90%, and the supply of ammonium chloride continues to be loose. The increase in supply has put some pressure on the ammonium chloride market. However, new orders have followed slowly, and the execution of previous orders has also been slightly sluggish, resulting in a continued weak ammonium chloride market.

Future Market Forecast

In late February, the market price of hydrochloric acid may fluctuate and fall mainly. The upstream liquid chlorine market is consolidating at a low level, with average cost support. The downstream ammonium chloride market has slightly declined, and downstream purchasing willingness has weakened. Analysts from Business Society believe that the hydrochloric acid market has been experiencing a slight fluctuation and decline in recent times.

According to monitoring data from Business Society, as of February 7, 2024, the reference market price of domestically produced industrial grade propylene glycol was 7900 yuan/ton. Compared with February 1, the price remained basically unchanged. Compared with January 1 (reference price of propylene glycol was 8300 yuan/ton), the price decreased by 400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.82%.

From the data monitoring chart of Business Society, it can be seen that in February, the overall domestic propylene glycol market has shown a stable and organized operation. At present, there is not much adjustment in the supply side of propylene glycol on-site, and the overall supply pressure in the propylene glycol market is not high. In terms of downstream demand, after entering February, with the gradual suspension of logistics transportation, the overall number of new propylene glycol orders has decreased, but the supply side pressure is still acceptable, and the overall performance of the propylene glycol market is mainly stable. As of February 7th, the domestic propylene glycol market price is based on around 7800-8100 yuan/ton.

Market analysis of propylene glycol

At present, the supply pressure of propylene glycol factories is still controllable, and the mentality of operators is cautious and mild. On the market, there is mostly a wait-and-see and stable mentality. The propylene glycol data analyst of Business Society believes that in the short term, the domestic propylene glycol market will mainly operate with large stability and small fluctuations, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to changes in supply and demand news.

This week, the domestic glycerol market has slightly increased, and the current domestic glycerol market quotation is around 4100-4350 yuan/ton. Upstream crude glycerol inventory is limited, and prices remain high and firm. As the Spring Festival approaches, many customers need to stock up. Affected by costs, prices have slightly increased.

Analysts predict that the demand in the domestic glycerol market will be limited after the year, and most of it will be purchased on a mandatory basis. It is expected that the glycerol market will continue to operate steadily in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the price of caustic soda has been consolidating this week, with an average market price of 784 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 782 yuan/ton at the end of the week. The price has decreased by 0.26%, a decrease of 28.78% compared to the same period last year. On February 3rd, the chlor alkali index was 1029 points, a decrease of 3 points from yesterday, a decrease of 51.64% from the highest point in the cycle of 2128 points (2021-10-24), and an increase of 44.52% from the lowest point of 712 points on January 5th, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present)

2、 Market analysis

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic caustic soda prices have been weak this week. The price of caustic soda in Shandong region is currently stable, with a mainstream market price of around 730-800 yuan/ton for 32% ion exchange membrane caustic soda. The price of caustic soda in Jiangsu region is currently stable, with a mainstream market price of around 800-860 yuan/ton for 32% ion exchange membrane caustic soda. This week, the overall price of caustic soda has remained stable, and downstream purchases are still more on demand, with average purchasing enthusiasm.

According to the price monitoring of Business Society, in the 5th week of 2024 (1.29-2.2), there was 1 commodity that rose, 5 commodities that fell, and 1 commodity that rose or fell to 0 on the chlor alkali industry price list. The main rising commodities include: caustic soda (0.51%); The main commodities falling include hydrochloric acid (-5.41%), light soda ash (-0.42%), and caustic soda (-0.26%). The average increase and decrease this week is -0.82%.

Analysts from Business Society believe that in the near future, the price of caustic soda has been consolidating this week, and downstream alumina will be replenished as needed without any positive support. It is expected that caustic soda will continue to consolidate in the future, depending on downstream market demand.

1、 Price trend

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the price of pure benzene has slightly increased this week. On January 29th, the price of pure benzene was 7948 yuan/ton, and on Friday (February 2nd), the price of pure benzene was 8000 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.91% from last week and 12.99% from the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and Review

This week, the price of Sinopec pure benzene was 8300 yuan/ton (prices in Shandong and Hebei regions increased by 450 yuan/ton simultaneously)

Downstream aspect

3、 Future Market Forecast

Crude oil fell and fell to 8230-8250 yuan/ton in the evening trading. It is expected that East China pure benzene will open low and consolidate in the morning.

Crude oil: The market is paying attention to the progress of negotiations on a ceasefire agreement between Palestine and Israel, with expectations of reduced geopolitical risks and a decline in international oil prices. NYMEX crude oil futures contract 03 fell by $2.03 per barrel, or 2.68%, at 73.82%; ICE oil futures futures for the month of April contract 78.70 fell $1.85 per barrel, or 2.30%. The main contract of China INE crude oil futures, 2403, fell 3.7 to 579.4 yuan/barrel, while it fell 10.1 to 569.3 yuan/barrel in overnight trading.

Core logic: Yesterday, the price of pure benzene in East China continued to rise significantly, with downstream buying still acceptable and a positive trading atmosphere. Some refineries in Shandong have a weak willingness to hold goods, resulting in a slight decline in their offers. Some businesses are bullish and actively buy, driving higher trading volume within the day.

1、 Price trend

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the price of aniline has slightly decreased this month, and the price has remained relatively stable since mid month. On January 1st, the market price of aniline was 10887/ton; On January 31st, the price was 10350 yuan/ton. The average price of aniline this month decreased by 4.93% compared to the beginning of the month and increased by 0.97% compared to the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and Review

In terms of raw materials, the overall pure benzene market has been on the rise this month, and prices will generally rise in the later period. 1、 Crude oil has seen a broad decline, but the cost side is insufficient. 2、 The arbitrage window of Asia US has closed, and the domestic price of pure benzene in China is low, resulting in a low import volume of pure benzene in January. And the overall supply of pure benzene in the market is insufficient. 3、 The downstream profitability is poor, and the price of styrene is in an upward trend, with a 2.82% increase compared to the beginning of the month. At the beginning of the month, the price of pure benzene was 7128 yuan/ton; At the end of the month, the price was 7955 yuan/ton, with a 10.21% increase compared to the beginning of the month and an 11.64% increase compared to the same period last year.

Nitric acid: The price of nitric acid has slightly decreased this month. At the beginning of the month, the price of nitric acid in East China was 2200 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, it was 2020 yuan/ton. The price decreased by 8.18% compared to the beginning of the month and 19.71% compared to the same period last year.

In January of this year, the price of aniline significantly declined, with a sharp decline before mid month. Approaching the end of the festival, some downstream factories are stocking up in advance, and the shipment of aniline factories is smooth. Inventory pressure is relatively low, and it is expected that aniline will stabilize and increase slightly. 3、 Future Market Forecast

Pure benzene will be delivered at the end of the month, and the spot resources at the port are tight, causing a significant increase. The supplementary orders are mainly small orders, and the final spot buying price is 8000 yuan/ton. Shandong’s weekend refineries sold well at low prices, with most businesses looking bullish in the future. Shandong’s pure benzene was sold in large quantities.

Pure benzene: Buying gas in the East China market has fallen, and prices have declined. There is a stalemate in buying gas in Shandong region, and intraday transactions tend to be in high demand. The willingness to stock up downstream in the region before the holiday is average, and overall transactions are poor. Crude oil and overnight trading fell, and it is expected that East China pure benzene will weaken and consolidate in the morning. The fundamentals of aniline are relatively strong, and we will continue to pay attention to the trend of cost, changes in downstream demand, and changes in the operating rate of aniline units in the future.

In 2023, the market price of trichloromethane fluctuated and declined. According to monitoring by Business Society, as of December 31, the market price of trichloromethane in Shandong Province was 2070 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9.01% from 2275 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year; The high point of the year was 3450 yuan/ton, and the low point was 1800 yuan/ton, with an amplitude of 91.67%.

In the first quarter, methane chloride plants were gradually shut down to reduce load. The pressure on the domestic supply of methane chloride has significantly decreased. In addition, downstream stocking before the Lunar New Year and subsequent replenishment after the holiday, the overall market for trichloromethane increased in the first quarter, with an increase of 26.32% in February; In the second quarter, the price of raw material methanol fluctuated and decreased, and the operating rate of methane chloride increased. The supply pressure of trichloromethane increased, and the price of trichloromethane weakened and fell back; In the third quarter, the price of raw material methanol fluctuated upwards, supported by the cost of trichloromethane. Downstream refrigerant exports were good, and demand was supported by trichloromethane. The new Jiujiang Jiuhong unit was put into operation, but the overall load was low. The pressure on the supply side of trichloromethane was relatively small, driving up the price of trichloromethane significantly; At the beginning of the fourth quarter, there was resistance from the downstream towards high priced chloroform, and transactions were light. In addition, the price range of raw material methanol in the fourth quarter fluctuated, and the cost support for chloroform was insufficient. Later, as the end of the year off-season approached, terminal demand was clearly weak, and merchants had a lower willingness to stock up, the price of chloroform gradually declined..

Outlook on trichloromethane market in 2024

Supply side: The supply of trichloromethane remains loose

In 2023, the domestic methane chloride production capacity increased by 100000 tons per year, and as of the end of 2023, the total domestic methane chloride production capacity was 3.7 million tons per year. According to data, a total of 1.32 million tons/year of methane chloride plants are still planned to be put into operation from 2024 to 2025, and the domestic supply of trichloromethane is expected to continue to be loose in the future.

Demand side: The demand for trichloromethane in 2024 is generally supported

In 2023, the Ministry of Ecology and Environment lowered the production quota for second-generation refrigerants to 214800 tons per year, a decrease of 26.64%. Among them, the production quota for R22 has been lowered from 224800 tons/year in 2022 to 181800 tons/year in 2023. In 2024, quotas for R22, R141b, and R142b were reissued at 180503, 21095, and 9355 tons, respectively. Among them, the production quota for R22 by Linhai Limin Chemical was reduced by 1344 tons, and the distribution plan for other enterprises was basically the same as in 2023. The production quota of refrigerant R22 has slightly decreased compared to 2023. In addition, China’s cumulative R22 exports in 2023 were 94300 tons, slightly lower than the 96500 tons in 2022. Global economic growth further slowed down in 2024, and refrigerant exports are expected to be weak and stable. Overall, the expected production of refrigerant R22 in 2024 is expected to slightly decrease, with weak support from demand for trichloromethane.

Cost side: Expected slight fluctuations in trichloromethane cost side in 2024

The raw material methanol is greatly affected by energy prices, and in the later stage, on the one hand, methanol faces partial production capacity clearance under the medium and long-term dual carbon policy, and on the other hand, the increase in BDO, organic silicon, and automotive and marine fuels may drive an increase in methanol demand. The expectation of methanol supply and demand is slightly tight, coupled with the gradual implementation of macroeconomic policies in 2024 and the support of coal costs, the methanol market may be warm in 2024, and the cost of trichloromethane is expected to rise slightly.

Import and export: expected slight fluctuations in exports of trichloromethane in 2024

With the continuous increase of domestic production capacity, the import volume of trichloromethane has gradually decreased in recent years, showing an overall trend of exports exceeding imports. Given the further slowdown in global economic growth expectations in 2024, the growth of trichloromethane exports in 2024 may be slightly insufficient, with overall slight fluctuations.

Market forecast: Overall, the trichloromethane analyst at Shengyishe believes that the overall demand for trichloromethane will weaken slightly in 2024, and the supply side will still face loose pressure. However, the cost side is too high to support it. It is expected that the trichloromethane market will fluctuate widely in 2024, and the price center may slightly move up due to cost support.