According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of December 28th, the average price quoted by epoxy chloropropane enterprises was 8150.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.93% compared to the price on December 1st.

The market for epichlorohydrin remained stable with little movement in December. In the first half of the year, the raw material propylene market was operating weakly, and glycerol prices were weakly adjusted. Cost support was weak, and some factories in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shandong, and other regions shut down for maintenance. The market spot supply was tight, and some enterprises increased their prices. However, the main downstream epoxy resin transactions were limited, and the demand side support was weak. Enterprise shipments were under pressure, and the market atmosphere was stagnant. The cost impact in the mid to late period is limited, with factory delivery contracts and core customers being the main focus. There is no inventory pressure on the supply side, but downstream demand replenishment intentions are not strong, and low follow-up is mainly chosen according to demand, resulting in a light market atmosphere.

Upstream propylene, according to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the reference price of propylene on December 27th was 6965.75, a decrease of 1.97% compared to December 1st (7105.75), and the impact of cost on the epichlorohydrin market is limited.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the reference price of epoxy resin on December 27th was 13300.00, an increase of 0.25% compared to December 1st (13266.67), which lacks support for the epoxy chloropropane market.

According to analysts from Business Society, there is still support on the supply side, but the demand side is average. Downstream small orders mainly follow up on demand, and the market trading atmosphere is light. It is expected that the short-term market for epichlorohydrin may remain stable, and more attention should be paid to market news guidance.

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, as of December 26th, the mainstream ex factory price of domestic refined hydrogenated naphtha was 7841.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.61% from December 18th at 7794.00 yuan/ton. The actual transaction price of refined hydrogenated naphtha was around 7800-8000 yuan/ton.

As of December 26th, the mainstream ex factory price of domestically refined straight run naphtha was 7779.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.52% from December 18th at 7739.00 yuan/ton. The actual transaction price of domestically refined straight run naphtha was around 7700-7800 yuan/ton.

Recently, the overall market for refined naphtha has seen a slight increase, with terminal demand continuing to be weak. The main focus of essential procurement is on restructuring, and downstream demand is cautious in chasing higher prices, resulting in limited transactions.

Upstream: The international crude oil market has recently seen an overall rise. At present, there is still significant uncertainty in the situation in the Middle East, and the Red Sea shipping crisis may continue to disrupt the market in the short term; In addition, against the backdrop of the Federal Reserve’s upcoming interest rate cut cycle, the weak US dollar has provided long-term positive support for the oil market.

Downstream: According to the monitoring of Business Society, the price of toluene has slightly declined, and the domestic mixed blending market demand has entered the off-season. Downstream inquiries are light, and the demand for toluene mixed blending continues to weaken; The price of mixed xylene has slightly increased, and the cost center range of mixed xylene has fluctuated. Domestic port inventories continue to increase; The price trend of PX is temporarily stable, and the domestic PX operating rate remains above 80%. Downstream support for the naphtha market is generally weak.

Market forecast: Energy analysts from Business Society believe that the international crude oil market is volatile, increasing the wait-and-see sentiment in the naphtha market; The domestic gasoline and diesel market has entered the off-season, and there is no significant positive effect on the terminal of refined naphtha; At present, there is a small amount of hard demand released for restructuring, but merchants are cautious in chasing higher prices. It is expected that the local refined naphtha market will mainly consolidate in the near future.

According to data monitoring from Business Society, as of December 25, 2023, the domestic market price of butanone was referenced at 7216 yuan/ton. Compared with December 1, 2023 (reference price of butanone was 7533 yuan/ton), the price decreased by 317 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.20%.

From the monitoring chart of Business Society data, it can be seen that in December, the overall domestic butanone market showed a fluctuating and declining trend. Starting from early December, the overall butanone market has been declining. In the middle and late stages, some regions have undergone temporary maintenance of butanone units, leading to a decrease in expected butanone supply. The butanone market has slightly declined, but due to insufficient demand, the upward trend is limited. Compared with the beginning of the month, the market still has a significant decline. As of December 25th, the domestic market price of butanone is around 7000-7600 yuan/ton.

Analysis of Factors Influencing the Decline of Butanone Market:

In terms of demand: In December, the downstream demand of the domestic butanone market has always performed poorly, with low enthusiasm for downstream stocking. The supply and demand transmission of butanone is slow, and the demand has dragged down the butanone market, making it difficult for the butanone market to improve.

In terms of raw materials: In early December, the carbon four market after the ether end of the raw material experienced a significant decline, providing loose cost support for butanone. Subsequently, the trend of the raw material market remained weak, coupled with insufficient downstream demand, resulting in a strong bearish attitude on the butanone market. The overall market lacked effective support, and the market center shifted downward one after another.

Market Forecast and Analysis of Butanone

At present, the atmosphere in the butanone market is relatively weak and quiet, and the effective boost performance in the butanone market is still not very clear. Some downstream areas have a small off-season, limited demand for raw materials, and pressure between the supply and demand of butanone still exists. Business Society’s butanone data analyst believes that in the short term, the domestic butanone market will mainly adjust its operation within a narrow range, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to the specific news changes on the supply and demand side.

According to price monitoring data from Business Society, as of December 25, 2023, the domestic market price of n-propanol was referenced at 7933 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 50 yuan/ton compared to December 1, 2023 (reference price of n-propanol was 7883 yuan/ton).

From the monitoring chart of Business Society data, it can be seen that in December, the overall market situation of domestic n-propanol showed fluctuations with a slight increase. At the beginning of the month, the domestic market for n-propanol remained stable and organized, with relatively calm news on the n-propanol market and little change in market conditions. By mid month, the overall market situation of n-propanol has been operating with a narrow downward trend. Some factories and n-propanol suppliers in Shandong region have slightly lowered the price of n-propanol by about 50 yuan/ton. At the end of the month, the overall market situation of n-propanol showed a slight correction, with downstream n-propanol stocking on demand, normal supply and demand transmission on the market, and a slight upward shift in the overall center of gravity of n-propanol. As of December 25th, the domestic market price of n-propanol in Shandong region is around 7350-7800 yuan/ton. The normal operation of the n-propanol plant in the Nanjing area, and the overall stable operation of the n-propanol market, with a reference price of around 8500-9000 yuan/ton for the n-propanol market. Dealers in different regions still have reservations about prices, and the difficulty in monitoring prices may lead to differences in specific negotiation situations. Each region also has differences, and actual negotiations are the main focus. The specific negotiation situation may vary due to testing, and there may be differences in each region, with actual negotiations being the main focus.

Prediction of future market trends of n-propanol

At present, as the end of the year approaches, the overall atmosphere in the domestic n-propanol market is mild, and the downstream of n-propanol is steadily stocking up before the holiday. The market trading atmosphere is still acceptable. The n-propanol data analyst of Business Society predicts that in the short term, the domestic n-propanol market will mainly operate with a moderate to slightly strong trend, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to changes in supply and demand news.

Domestic sodium metabisulfite price trend chart

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic price of sodium metabisulfite continued to remain stable this week, with an average price of 2500.00 yuan/ton for industrial grade sodium metabisulfite at the beginning of the week and an average price of 2500.00 yuan/ton over the weekend.

This week, upstream raw material prices continued to remain stable, while raw material costs remained stable. The overall market price of industrial grade sodium metabisulfite in China remained stable this week, currently in the range of 2450-2600 yuan/ton. The company’s inventory is around 30%, and it mainly completes orders from old customers. (The above prices refer to quotes from mainstream domestic enterprises, and some companies that have not been quoted are temporarily not within their scope. The prices are for reference only and are not related to the final pricing of the manufacturer. For more details, please contact each manufacturer for consultation.).

This week, domestic soda ash prices continued to remain stable, with a slight decrease in sulfur prices, which fell by 1.8% within the week. The overall cost of raw materials remained stable, and the market price of sodium metabisulfite will stabilize in the future.

Future Market Forecast

Business Society analysts believe that raw material costs have stabilized, downstream demand is stable, and the domestic market price of sodium metabisulfite will continue to remain stable in the short term.

According to monitoring data from Business Society, as of December 21, 2023, the domestic primary sponge titanium market prices have remained stable, with mainstream prices ranging from 52000 to 55000 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week.

In terms of imports, the market is shrinking, domestic demand is fluctuating, domestic competition is fierce, and some companies do not provide external quotations. According to customs data, China imported 0 tons of sponge titanium in November 2023. From January to November 2023, the cumulative import of sponge titanium in China was about 133.84 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 98.82%, and the import volume decreased by about 11177.34 tons.

In terms of exports, the market has increased. According to customs data, in November 2023, China’s sponge titanium exports reached 1139.4 tons, a month on month increase of 38.48% and a year-on-year increase of 798.62%; From January to November 2023, the cumulative export volume of sponge titanium from China was about 5478.5 tons, an increase of 231.27% compared to the same period last year, and the export volume increased by about 3824.75 tons.

Prediction for next year: Due to the continuous release of production capacity by domestic sponge titanium production enterprises, downstream demand will continue to be dominated by rigid procurement, and some enterprises will face increased inventory pressure. The market will show a situation of oversupply, coupled with the high level operation of raw materials, there is not much room for price increase in the sponge titanium market, and the overall outlook is stable.

441 # Overview of Silicon Price Trends

This week, the price of metal silicon # 441 remained stable and strong. As of December 18th, the average price of metal silicon in the domestic market was 15280 yuan/ton, with a month on week increase of 0.46%. The supply side disturbance remains, and environmental inspections in the north have affected some of the supply, resulting in relatively strong quotes in the north. Seasonal production cuts in the southwest continue, and most silicon factories are reluctant to sell due to price hikes. In terms of futures, SI2402 rose or fell by -0.47% throughout the week, closing at 13810 yuan/ton.

The price of 441 # silicon in various regions on the 18th is as follows:

The price range for # 441 metallic silicon in the Huangpu Port area is 15100-15300 yuan/ton, with an average price of 15200 yuan/ton; The price range of # 441 metallic silicon in Tianjin Port area is 15100-15300 yuan/ton, with an average of 15200 yuan/ton; The price range of # 441 metallic silicon in Kunming area is 15200-15300 yuan/ton, with an average price of 15250 yuan/ton; The price range of # 441 metallic silicon in Sichuan region is 14900-15000 yuan/ton, with an average of 14950 yuan/ton; The price range of Shanghai # 441 metallic silicon is 15700-15900 yuan/ton, with an average price of 15800 yuan/ton.

The Factors Influencing the Price of Silicon Metal

In terms of supply:

As of December 14th, there were 364 silicon metal furnaces in operation in China, with an overall start-up rate of 48.53%, a decrease of 11 furnaces compared to the previous period. Among them, there is a decrease of 1 unit in Xinjiang, 5 units in Yunnan, and 6 units in Sichuan. This week, the number of silicon metal furnaces continued to decline, the operating rate in the southwest region continued to decline, and the northern environmental protection inspection shut down for insulation.

In terms of inventory:

As of December 15th, the national social inventory of industrial silicon reached a total of 370000 tons, a decrease of 4000 tons compared to the previous week. Among them, the social ordinary warehouse was 125000 tons, a decrease of 1000 tons compared to the previous week, and the social delivery warehouse was 245000 tons (including unregistered warehouse receipts), a decrease of 3000 tons compared to the previous week.

In terms of demand:

This week, the domestic polycrystalline silicon market was weak and stable, with the mainstream range of single crystal dense materials, currently classified as primary solar grade, falling to 55-65000 yuan/ton. The newly added production capacity of polycrystalline silicon continues to increase. Due to the weak market situation, the acceptance of high prices for metal silicon powder is low, and the trading volume is lower than the planned purchase volume.

The domestic organic silicon DMC market continues to decline weakly, with market prices ranging from 13900 to 14500 yuan/ton. The downstream demand transmission rhythm of the silicon DMC market is slow, and the enthusiasm of individual factories to start production is reduced, maintaining on-demand demand for metallic silicon.

The price of aluminum alloy has slightly decreased, and the current quotation for aluminum alloy ADC12 is 19400 yuan/ton. The operating rate of aluminum alloy enterprises has slightly decreased, and procurement is not active.

Future Market Forecast

The demand for metallic silicon remains relatively stable, but the weekly production has decreased, and social inventory has maintained a slight destocking state. Silicon factories have a clear mentality of rising prices. Combined with rising costs, the prices of silicon coal and charcoal have recently risen, and electricity prices have risen during dry periods. Some silicon factories in the southwest still have production reduction plans, and it is expected that the short-term silicon price will mainly slightly increase.

Recently (12.12-12.18), the dichloromethane market has been weak and temporarily stable. According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, as of December 18th, the average price of dichloromethane bulk water in Shandong Province was 2425 yuan/ton, indicating a weak trend. The prices of raw materials methanol and liquid chlorine have decreased, and the cost center of dichloromethane has shifted downwards; The widespread cooling, rainy and snowy weather has hindered transportation in some areas of China, and the overall transaction volume of dichloromethane has decreased. However, the inventory pressure of enterprises is still acceptable, and the factory price of dichloromethane loose water is mainly expected to remain stable. As of December 18, the mainstream factory price of dichloromethane loose water in Shandong region is around 2450-2550 yuan/ton, but overall, the bearish atmosphere in the market has intensified.

Recently (12.12-12.18), domestic methane chloride production fluctuated narrowly.

Recently (12.12-12.18), the prices of raw materials methanol and liquid chlorine have decreased, and the cost center of dichloromethane has decreased. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of December 18th, the spot price of methanol was 2430 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.78% from the 2450 yuan/ton in December. As of December 18th, the acceptance price of liquid chlorine tank trucks in Shandong region is around 100 yuan/ton, which continues to decline compared to the previous period.

The domestic supply of methane chloride is still relatively loose. Although the inventory pressure of enterprises can still be borne at present, the bearish atmosphere in the market is becoming stronger, and transactions are weak.

Market forecast: According to the methane chloride data analyst from Business Society, the demand for dichloromethane is weak in the short term, while the supply is relatively loose, which has a bearish impact on the dichloromethane market. In addition, the lower raw material prices have weakened the cost support for dichloromethane, and it is expected that the dichloromethane market will be weak and consolidate in the later period.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic price of sodium metabisulfite stabilized this week and then remained stable. The average price of industrial grade sodium metabisulfite at the beginning of the week was 2500.00 yuan/ton, and the average price over the weekend was 2500.00 yuan/ton, indicating overall stability.

Due to the stabilizing trend of raw material prices and the strong wait-and-see attitude of downstream trading entities, the overall quoted prices of domestic sodium metabisulfite enterprises have remained stable this week, with a market price range of 2450-2600 yuan/ton for industrial grade sodium metabisulfite. The product inventory is about 30%, and the company mainly completes orders from old customers. (The above prices refer to the quotations from mainstream domestic enterprises, and some enterprises that have not been reported are not within their scope. The prices are for reference only and are not related to the final pricing of the manufacturers. For details, please contact each manufacturer for consultation.).

This week, domestic soda ash prices slightly increased, rising 0.72% within the week, while sulfur prices slightly increased, rising 3.46% within the week. The upward trend of upstream product prices slowed down during the week, and the overall fluctuation of raw material costs stabilized. The market price of sodium metabisulfite in the future lacks further upward momentum.

Future Market Forecast

Analysts from Business Society believe that the rising trend of raw material costs is stabilizing, and downstream trading entities are adopting a more wait-and-see attitude. The domestic market price of sodium metabisulfite lacks sufficient momentum to continue rising, and it will remain stable in the short term.

This week, the price trend of domestic fluorite has slightly declined. As of the weekend, the average price of domestic fluorite was 3575 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.04% from the beginning of the week’s price of 3612.5 yuan/ton, and a year-on-year increase of 5.93%.

Supply side: Raw ore supply remains tight, fluorite still has support

The game situation in the domestic fluorite industry still exists, and overall, the operating rate of enterprises remains low. The main reason is the tension in upstream mining, and backward mines will continue to be eliminated. In terms of new mines, mineral investigation work is still difficult. In addition, mining accidents have occurred in some areas, and fluorite mining enterprises are facing increasingly strict safety and environmental requirements. Some mines are undergoing safety hazard inspections, which has increased the difficulty of operating fluorite mines, The shortage of raw materials has limited the production of fluorite enterprises. In addition, some manufacturers in the north are affected by rainy and snowy weather, resulting in limited production and tight spot supply of fluorite. The price decline in the fluorite market is not significant.

On the demand side: The price of hydrofluoric acid is declining, and the starting point of refrigerant production is low

This week, the domestic price trend of hydrofluoric acid has declined. The mainstream price of hydrofluoric acid discussed in various regions in China is 10600-11000 yuan/ton. The price of hydrofluoric acid has dropped by 0.15% this week. Recently, some devices are still in shutdown, and the spot supply of hydrofluoric acid has not changed much. The order situation of manufacturers for hydrofluoric acid is average, and the decline in hydrofluoric acid price is negative for the domestic fluorite market. Some hydrofluoric acid manufacturers purchase on demand, but the downstream market is not good, and the domestic fluorite market has slightly declined.

The market trend of downstream refrigerant products is temporarily stable, and the operating rate of the refrigerant industry remains low. The procurement of raw materials is not active, and the load of refrigerant R22 manufacturers is not high. Downstream procurement needs to follow up, and some enterprises have absorbed their quotas in advance. The monthly average quantity of remaining quotas is relatively small, and the price trend of R22 is mainly falling. The domestic R134a manufacturers are operating at low loads, but the actual high-end quotations have fallen, and the purchasing atmosphere has cooled. Currently, the market price of refrigerant R134a is mostly in the range of 26000-28000 yuan/ton. The demand in the refrigerant industry during the off-season is insufficient, and transactions are relatively flat. The refrigerant industry is maintaining low production, with poor demand, and the price of fluorite has slightly decreased.

In addition to the traditional demand in the refrigerant industry, fluorite, as an important mineral raw material in modern industry, is constantly developing in emerging fields. It is also applied in strategic emerging industries such as new energy and new materials, as well as national defense and nuclear industry, including lithium hexafluorophosphate, PVDF, graphite negative electrodes, photovoltaic panels, etc. With the driving force of demand in new energy and semiconductor fields, fluorite applications have received certain support, and the decline of the fluorite market is limited.

Market forecast: In the near future, it is difficult to improve the supply of domestic fluorite mines. Some mines have stopped production and are undergoing safety inspections. In addition, the supply in the northern region has decreased. However, the purchasing sentiment of hydrofluoric acid enterprises is poor, and the upstream and downstream game situation has intensified. Chen Ling, an analyst at Business Society, believes that the price of fluorite in the future market will mainly fluctuate.