Price Trend

The domestic butadiene market fell sharply this week. Business Association monitoring showed that the domestic butadiene market price at the beginning of the week was 8973 yuan/ton, and the domestic butadiene price at the weekend was 8358 yuan/ton. Within the week, the price fell by 6.85%, 22.75% compared with the same period last year.

II. Analysis of Influencing Factors

Products: This week, the domestic butadiene market shocks downward, Sinopec’s supply price dropped 500 yuan/ton to 900 yuan/ton; Liaotong Chemical Industry’s bottom bidding price was 7110 yuan/ton; Fushun Petrochemical’s bottom bidding price was 7000 yuan/ton, down 800-900 yuan/ton from last week. Within a week, Fushun Petrochemical continued to export volume, abundant market supply and low downstream demand, resulting in poor supply and turnover of manufacturers, prices continue to fall under pressure. And the continued decline in the market aggravated downstream bearish expectations, the cycle of superimposed synthetic rubber market fell, dragging butadiene market continued to decline. In the mid-and late-week period, manufacturers’low prices stimulated the downstream part to just buy at a low price, and market turnover improved. On Thursday, Northeast China’s supply volume increased, boosting middlemen’s offer to follow up. The delivery price in Shandong is 8000-8100 yuan/ton, while the reference price in East China is 8300-8400 yuan/ton, which is about 500 yuan/ton lower than last week. Short-term market turns upward, most downstream merchants are still cautious, and the actual follow-up situation remains to be seen.

Industry Chain: Styrene-butadiene rubber: Domestic Styrene-butadiene rubber market shows a weak operation, butadiene external market is still weakening the mindset of the industry, while weak demand also has constraints, the industry offers around the factory, but the phenomenon of excessive low prices weakened, the transaction is flat. Cis-butadiene rubber: The domestic cis-butadiene rubber market is weak and stable. Businessmen offer on the factory price, on-site inquiry atmosphere is still light, the volume of spot transactions is not much, part of the supply transactions on the factory price, sporadic supply negotiations price slightly inverted. SBS: Domestic SBS market oil glue low-level operation, dry glue narrow finishing.

3. Future Market Forecast

Stage of downstream demand, and some buy-at-bargain boost Northeast supply price increase transactions, market turnover improved. However, East China’s inventory digestion is slow and there is still shipment replenishment in the later period, and Northeast China’s supply market continues to export. Overall, short-term market supply is difficult to sustain good, downstream just need to boost is limited. Business community butadiene analysts expect that early next week the market will digest the space for a small rebound this weekend. Afterwards, under the influence of increased supply, the market may resume its decline. Discuss cautiously.

Price Trend

According to the monitoring data of business associations, soda ash is mainly running steadily this week. From the beginning of the week to the end of the week, the average market price in East China is 1950 yuan/ton. On March 14, the light soda commodity index was 100.00, unchanged from yesterday, down 15.15% from the cyclical peak of 117.86 points (2017-11-21), and up 58.35% from the lowest point of 63.15 on November 18, 2015. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date)

II. Market Analysis

Products: This week, the domestic soda price maintained stable operation as a whole. Mainstream tariff-containing ex-factory price of light alkali: 1800-1900 yuan/ton in Shandong; 1800-1900 yuan/ton in Hebei; 1600-1650 yuan/ton in Henan; 1650-1700 yuan/ton in Hubei; 1850-1950 yuan/ton in Guangdong and 1400-1500 yuan/ton in Qinghai. The main stream of heavy alkali including tax delivery price: at present, the main stream of heavy alkali in North China is about 1800-2000 yuan/ton, and the main stream of Shahe area is 1800-1850 yuan/ton.

Industry chain: At present, the overall shipment of soda enterprises is general, and the downstream enterprises still take delivery on demand. As the downstream demand for light alkali is not warm, the market trend is weak, and the procurement is more cautious. However, this week’s starting rate has declined, downstream users have changed their purchasing mentality due to rising prices. There is a significant increase in order taking, and some soda manufacturers have limited control of orders due to supply effects. The market may be optimistic.

Industry: According to the price monitoring of business associations, there are two kinds of commodities rising and falling in the price list of chlor-alkali industry in the 09th week of 2019 (3.4-3.8), two kinds of commodities falling, and one kind of commodity rising and falling to 0. The main commodities rising were calcium carbide (2.28%) and PVC (0.79%). The main commodities falling were hydrochloric acid (-12.50%) and light soda ash (-0.85%). This week’s average rise and fall was -2.05%.

3. Future Market Forecast

Business analysts believe that the starting load of soda industry returns to a reasonable level rationally, the bottom price of the critical cost of soda market, the price of soda manufacturers are reluctant to continue to reduce the price promotion, and the game between the two sides may be eased. It is expected that the soda market will be mainly flexible in the short term, or will increase slightly in the later period, depending on the downstream market demand.

Price Trend

According to the price monitoring of business associations, as of March 14, the average price of domestic aggregated MDI market was 14950 yuan/ton, and the overall market price was weak.

II. Market Analysis

Products: Domestic aggregate MDI market price weakness slightly declined. The venue is “dead” and the quotation of distributors has slightly loosened, but they are entangled with the settlement price at the end of the month and are very cautious about delivery. Middlemen actively deliver goods at low prices, but the downstream is still “cold” mood, buying enthusiasm is not good, the market remains sporadic negotiations. The supplier’s attitude is uncertain, coupled with the market stalemate for too long, the price of 141b foaming agent keeps rising, and the digestibility of downstream is poor. The short-term aggregated MDI market price is expected to have significant downside risk under multi-empty factors.

On the market side, South China has aggregated the weak and deadlocked MDI market. Demand-side buying climate is difficult to improve, middlemen actively low-cost delivery, the market atmosphere is unusually light. The price of aggregated MDI in East China is weak and deadlocked. The market is weak, the traders let profits to deliver goods, but the downstream inventory has not been fully digested, and the procurement mood is depressed. The price stalemate of aggregated MDI in North China continues and the turnover is short. The supplier manufacturer controls the quantity of delivery and has little boosting effect. Downstream of the high price of raw materials to resist sentiment, business is blocked, the market atmosphere “bleak”.

Industry chain: raw materials, pure benzene: East China pure benzene stable operation, spot purchase 4600-4680 yuan/ton, sell 4700 yuan/ton. Aniline: Aniline prices are rising. Despite the decline in raw material pure benzene, Jinling led the rise in aniline prices across the board. Shandong mainstream negotiation price refers to 5400 yuan/ton spot exchange and 5520 yuan/ton acceptance. East China enterprises mainly ship cargo and contract customers, the mainstream negotiation price refers to 6100 yuan/ton acceptance.

3. Future Market Forecast

Business Cooperative Perspective: On the positive side, the latest price increases by a wide margin in many enterprises, and the cost support moves up; the enterprises control the volume of goods in the market. On the negative side, there are many stockpiles in the downstream in the early stage and the purchase is limited; the foaming agent 141B rises sharply and the cost surface moves, which indirectly affects the demand of the terminal for MDI; the temperature in the north is relatively unstable, and the current outdoor construction temperature is lower than the optimal construction temperature, so the demand is limited. Analysts of business associations aggregate MDI expect that in the short term aggregate MDI market prices or significant downside risks will be detected.

On Monday, Jeff Currie, head of commodities research at Goldman Sachs, said OPEC and its allies were likely to achieve their goal of eliminating global oil oversupply next month.

Currie said in an interview with CNBC that OPEC’s production reduction plan had cut crude oil production dramatically from the beginning, while Russia was accelerating its production reduction as Venezuela’s crude oil production declined, and the global crude oil production reduction rate had already been faster than Goldman Sachs expected.

In this regard, he believes that the rebalancing of the crude oil market in April will also force OPEC to lift production restrictions and formulate new plans by May or June.

It is noteworthy that Goldman Sachs also predicted last week that Brent crude oil could rise to $70 to $75 a barrel in the short term, higher than the current price of about $60 a barrel, due to OPEC’s “deterrence” policy and strong oil demand.

In fact, as early as February, Goldman Sachs pointed out that investors’fears about the extent of the collapse of global growth expectations were unfounded and that the scale of production cuts in 2019 had exceeded expectations:

“Core OPEC oil producers are adopting a shocking and awe-inspiring strategy that goes beyond their reduction commitments.”

After oil prices plunged more than 40% at the end of last year, OPEC, composed of 14 oil-producing countries, and its allies, led by Russia, began to balance the market and reached a plan to reduce total daily production by 1.2 million barrels in the first six months of 2019. Among them, 800,000 barrels per day came from OPEC member countries, Russia and 10 OPEC foreign oil-producing countries, with a total reduction of 400,000 barrels per day.

According to the previous OPEC February report, from December last year to January this year, OPEC has achieved the largest reduction in output for two consecutive months, with Saudi Arabia leading in the reduction. Saudi Energy Minister Falh also promised to increase the reduction, suggesting that by March this year, Saudi Arabia’s output will be nearly 500,000 barrels/day lower than the quota.

In mid-April this year, OPEC + will hold a meeting in Vienna to consider whether to extend the agreement until the second half of this year.

But on Monday, Reuters quoted people familiar with the matter as saying that OPEC could not make any decision on oil production policy at its April meeting. It was more likely to make a decision in June, and the most likely decision was to extend OPEC + production cuts until the end of this year.

Russia’s energy minister, Novak, also said that Russia would probably reduce production by up to 228,000 barrels a day by March, with an average reduction in oil production in March exceeding February.

However, Fu Peng, a columnist of Wall Street News, points out that the game between non-OPEC and OPEC is now involved. If OPEC is willing to cut production to maintain oil prices, everyone will benefit from high oil prices; but if it continues to hold up prices, it will be equivalent to OPEC to give up a larger market share, of which Saudi Arabia’s interests will surely suffer the greatest damage.

Price Trend

February 2019 # lead ingot Market fluctuated lower, the average domestic market price at the beginning of the month was 17562.50 yuan / ton, and at the end of the week was 17287.5 yuan / ton, a decline of 1.57%.

On February 28, the lead commodity index was 105.21, up 1.14 points from yesterday, down 21.49% from 134.01 points in the cycle (2016-11-29) and 40.98% from 74.63 points on March 19, 2015. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date).

II. Market Analysis

Domestic market: before the Spring Festival, the market is relatively cold. Most manufacturers completed stock purchase at the end of January and entered the Spring Festival holiday ahead of schedule. After the opening of the Spring Festival Holiday, there are fragmented just-in-demand transactions in the market. On the 11th, the market resumed trading. In the first week after the festival, large-scale battery enterprises gradually resumed production. Some small and medium-sized enterprises were still in the stage of vacation. Lead prices suffered a severe setback two days before the opening of the market. In addition, there was a certain amount of inventory before the festival, inquiries were gradually reduced, bulk orders market turnover was light. Lead prices stopped falling and stabilized in the next few days, and purchased at low prices, and market turnover tended to improve. Later, with the improvement of trading, the market gradually warmed up, and some of the gains fell in the opening market. By the end of the month, the lead mainstream trading range was 17050-17650 yuan/ton, and the lift and discount decreased from 50 yuan/ton to 25 yuan/ton to level water.

International Markets: This week, the US dollar fell from its high last week, US crude oil showed 4 lianyang, reaching a recent high of US$57.88 per barrel. The latest progress of Sino-US negotiations announced a temporary postponement of the original tariff levy on China on March 1. The market was boosted by positive sentiment. Domestic A-share market was booming, nearly 3000 points, and the metal market was red.

Supply and demand: According to foreign media news on February 20, the World Metal Statistical Bureau WBMS released a report that the global supply shortage of lead market in 2018 was 240,000 tons, and the supply shortage in 2017 was 386,000 tons. Total inventory at the end of December was 56,000 tons lower than at the end of 2017. In 2018, the global production of refined lead (primary lead and recycled lead) was 11.765 million tons, an increase of 4.8% over 2017. In 2018, China’s apparent demand was 5.235 million tons, an increase of 441,000 tons over the previous year, equivalent to nearly 44% of global demand. In 2018, the apparent demand in the United States decreased by 10,000 tons compared with the same period in 2017. In 2018, global refined lead production was 1.128 million tons and consumption was 1.178 million tons.

LONDON, Feb. 19 (Reuters) – The global lead shortage narrowed to 98,000 tons in 2018, compared with 148,000 tons in the previous year, according to data released by the International Lead and Zinc Research Group (ILZSG). In December 2018, the global lead market was short of supply by 14,400 tons, compared with 27,800 tons in November. From January to December 2018, there was a shortage of 98,000 tons in the global lead market. The shortage was slightly larger than that of last month. In the same period of 2017, there was a shortage of 148,000 tons. In the first 12 months of 2018, the output of lead was 11.636 million tons and the usage of lead was 11.734 million tons.

Domestic events: Development and Reform Commission and other nine departments jointly develop a clear goal of civilization: in 2025, the recovery rate of waste lead-acid batteries will reach 70% in recent years. Due to the driving of relevant interests, coupled with the imperfect recovery system and other factors, the illegal recovery of waste lead-acid batteries, violent dismantling, and indigenous smelting cases continue to occur repeatedly in our country, and the pollution is shocking. It is reported that more than 60% of waste lead-acid batteries flow into informal channels every year, hundreds of thousands of tons of lead-containing waste acid are dumped directly, and the waste lead-acid recovery and disposal system needs to be improved urgently. In order to prevent and control environmental risks of waste lead-acid batteries, the Ministry of Ecological Environment and the National Development and Reform Commission recently jointly issued the Action Plan for Pollution Prevention and Control of Waste Lead-acid Batteries (hereinafter referred to as the Action Plan), jointly launched the action for pollution prevention and control of waste lead-acid batteries. The overall objective is to rectify the illegal collection and treatment of environmental pollution of waste lead-acid batteries and implement the extended producer responsibility system. Improve the standard collection and treatment rate of waste lead-acid batteries. At the same time, specific objectives are put forward: by 2020, lead-acid battery manufacturers will achieve 40% standard collection rate of waste lead-acid batteries by implementing the extended producer responsibility system; by 2025, 70% standard collection rate of waste lead-acid batteries; and standardize the safe utilization and disposal of all waste lead-acid batteries collected.

Yinman Mine is a large lead mine in Inner Mongolia, which produces about 15,000 metal tons of lead concentrate annually, accounting for about 0.75% of the total production of 2 million metal tons of lead concentrate in China. Although the impact on the national production is very limited, its diffusion effect should not be ignored. In particular, the Inner Mongolia security inventory and rectification has officially begun, which will further reduce the national lead concentrate energy. Inner Mongolia’s annual output of lead concentrate is 600,000-700,000 metal tons, which is the main base of lead concentrate production in China, accounting for about 30% of the total output of the country. Therefore, the safety rectification after the mine disaster is bound to increase the structural dislocation of short-term lead concentrate in short supply.

Guizhou Dingsheng Xin mining development Co., Ltd., in cooperation with the Guizhou geological and Mining Bureau, has completed the appraisal report of the pig Hongtang lead zinc mine in Hezhang County, Guizhou province. The mineral resources reserve has been Archival in the natural resources department of Guizhou province for the record of 2 million 758 thousand and 200 tons of lead-zinc resources. It is the first super large lead-zinc deposit in Guizhou. It is the biggest breakthrough in the prospecting of lead-zinc deposits in Guizhou province.

China Tower has stopped purchasing lead-acid batteries and replaced them with lithium batteries. In order to solve the problem of power storage battery recycling for new energy vehicles, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, together with relevant departments, organized China Railway Tower Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as “Iron Tower Company”) in 2018 to carry out power storage battery cascade utilization, play the role of the main channel for power storage battery recycling, and build business models, develop key technologies, standardize research and information level. We should strengthen innovation in Taiwan’s construction and other aspects. As a large state-owned comprehensive service enterprise of telecommunication infrastructure, Iron Tower Company has 1.9 million base stations, and has great demand for standby power supply. By promoting the recovery and cascade utilization of decommissioned power batteries, while ensuring the needs of telecommunication services, it has realized the centralized utilization and control of decommissioned power batteries, and achieved remarkable results.

9 Departments jointly issued the Action Plan for Pollution Prevention and Control of Waste Lead Batteries to rectify the illegal collection and treatment of environmental pollution of waste lead-acid batteries, implement the extended producer responsibility system, and improve the standard collection and treatment rate of waste lead-acid batteries. The plan requires that by 2020, lead-acid battery manufacturers will achieve a standard collection rate of 40% by implementing the extended producer responsibility system; by 2025, the standard collection rate of waste lead-acid batteries will reach 70%, and the standard collection of waste lead-acid batteries will be used and disposed of safely. The plan is put forward to promote the green development of lead-acid battery production industry. By the end of June 2019, a list of key enterprises for lead-acid battery production, primary lead and recycled lead will be established, which will be open to the public and updated dynamically, and cleaner production will be vigorously promoted. Promote the extended producer responsibility system, give full play to the leading role of lead-acid battery production and recycled lead backbone enterprises, encourage recycling enterprises to establish reverse recycling system relying on the marketing network of manufacturers, and lead-acid battery manufacturers and importers to establish a standardized recycling system through self-built recycling system or cooperation with social recycling system.

3. Prospects for the Future Market

There will be a lot of data next week, with the US dollar showing downward signs. As China enters March, downstream construction will gradually resume. With the convening of the “two sessions”, market sentiment will remain more positive, and spot lead market will gradually recover.

Price Trend

According to the monitoring of business associations, nickel prices surged in February. By the end of the month, nickel prices were quoted at 103100 yuan/ton, up 4.18% from 98966.7 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and down 0.91% from the same period last year. This month, during the Spring Festival, nickel went up and down independently. After the festival, nickel rose again and fell again. However, it was boosted by the sharp rise in social finance data released by the Central Bank in January, and nickel prices were supported again. Finally, the optimistic prices in Sino-US trade negotiations were firm.

II. Market Trend Analysis

On the supply side, Indonesian nickel is expected to increase. Harita, an Indonesian mining company, has obtained a new export quota of 2.2 million wet tons of nickel. Recently, Indonesia has continuously approved new export quotas, which are relatively adequate. Xinhai Science and Technology plans to complete two furnaces by the end of the year, but only one furnace has actually been put into operation. But now the second one only starts heating, and the remaining six furnaces will not be put into operation until at least the end of the first quarter. On the demand side, during the Spring Festival, factories shut down and demand gradually warmed up after the tenth day of the first lunar month. After the Spring Festival, with the recovery of demand, according to the current price level, steel mills have more lucrative profits. After the Spring Festival, steel mills may start a new wave of restoring production.

3. Prospects for the Future Market

In summary, the non-ferrous analysts of business associations believe that the recovery of financial data in January shows that monetary policy tends to be loose, the results of Sino-US trade negotiations are good, and the supply and demand of nickel market show signs of warming up after the festival. It is expected that nickel market will maintain a strong oscillation pattern and prices will oscillate between 98000-105000 yuan/ton.