In July, the domestic liquid ammonia market fell sharply, down 23.0%. Shandong, Hebei, Shanxi, Jiangsu and other regions fell significantly, with a decline of more than 1000 yuan. Market supply increased significantly. However, there is no change in downstream demand, and agricultural demand is weak. Lower downstream prices, terminal prices have also declined. According to the monitoring of business agency, as of July 28, the current quotation range of liquid ammonia in Shandong is 3400-3600 yuan / ton.

Supply side

On the supply side, this month, the overall ammonia release in many places in China generally increased compared with last month, and the overall supply pressure increased. With the change of CO production units of some manufacturers in the middle of the month, the output is limited and the ammonia output is significantly increased. Anhui power rationing ended, and the output of liquid ammonia increased. In addition, the operating rates of many manufacturers in Shandong, Shanxi and other regions are concentrated, and the centralized reduction of prices stimulates shipments, resulting in abundant supply of goods in the market. Recently, the amount of ammonia is still recovering. Therefore, the surplus caused by the short-term surge in liquid ammonia supply is the biggest killer of price.

Cost side

The upstream coal price fluctuated downward, falling by 3.04% this month. The high coal price squeezed the downstream profits. However, at the same time, the state regulated the coal price and guided the coal price to return to a reasonable range. The downstream cost pressure is still large. At present, the downstream liquid ammonia has suffered a heavy decline, and the manufacturer’s profits have been significantly squeezed. The price of natural gas rose slightly this month, which eased the cost pressure of gas head enterprises. According to the monitoring of the business agency, LNG rose by 2.22% this month.

Demand side

In the end, domestic demand has entered the traditional off-season. According to the monitoring of business society, urea fell by 22.16% in July, and the fundamentals of urea supply and demand are unbalanced. On the one hand, the domestic urea supply remains abundant, while a small amount of domestic agricultural demand is difficult to support the overall situation. Superimposed on the bad export, the obvious decline of urea export volume and other reasons, the urea price has been falling again and again. The inventory level is also negative. Urea inventories in various regions are significantly higher. Under the pressure of inventory, urea enterprises continue to reduce prices and clear inventories. Urea fluctuated downward throughout the month.

From the above figure, it can be seen from the price comparison chart of urea and liquid ammonia that the trend of liquid ammonia and urea is basically the same, and the two resonate downward, with sharp declines. At present, the price difference remains at a reasonable level.

From the above figure, the liquid ammonia industrial chain showed a weak performance in July, with relatively strong cost performance. The prices of coal and natural gas were still high, bringing great pressure on the downstream. Due to the weakening of seasonal demand, liquid ammonia and downstream products such as urea (-21.16%) and ammonium chloride (-21.88%) fell strongly.

Aftermarket forecast

The business agency believes that in the short term, the contradiction between supply and demand in the domestic ammonia market is still prominent, the entire chemical industry is depressed, and the general environment of sluggish downstream demand has suppressed the market. In addition, the export policy of chemical fertilizer has not been liberalized yet, and the domestic reservoir pressure has only increased. Recently, although enterprises in Henan, Hubei, Shanxi and other places have entered the maintenance period, a large number of units have resumed production in the same period, and the supply pressure is still in the later stage. It is expected that the market will run empty, which does not rule out the possibility that the ammonia price will continue to fall.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the acrylonitrile market continued to fall this week (7.18-7.25). As of July 25, the acrylonitrile price was 9820 yuan / ton, down 5.21% from 10360 yuan / ton last Monday. The supply side of the domestic acrylonitrile industry continued to be loose, downstream construction fell, market transactions were deadlocked, and traders sold their stocks at low prices. As of July 25, the offer of acrylonitrile bulk water market in East China was between 9100 and 10100 yuan / ton.

This week (7.18-7.25), the price of raw propylene fluctuated slightly and fell, with weak cost support. According to the monitoring of business agency, as of July 25, the domestic propylene price was 7340 yuan / ton, down 0.19% from 7354 yuan / ton last Monday.

Since July, the operating rate of downstream ABS has fallen to around 80%, and the operating rate of acrylic fiber and acrylamide industries has declined slightly, with a slightly weak demand side, but there is still some support for acrylonitrile; Acrylonitrile supply side continues to be under pressure.

Future forecast: the acrylonitrile analyst of business agency believes that the current supply area cost pressure restricts the action force of acrylonitrile, and it is difficult to change in the short term. It is expected that the acrylonitrile price will continue to fluctuate at a low level in the later period.

Recent price trend of isooctanol

As can be seen from the above figure, the ex factory price of isooctanol in Shandong rose slightly this week. This week, the average ex factory price of isooctanol mainstream manufacturers in Shandong rose from 8100.00 yuan / ton last weekend to 8666.67 yuan / ton this weekend, an increase of 7.00%, a year-on-year decrease of 52.21% over the same period last year. On July 24, the isooctanol commodity index was 63.73, unchanged from yesterday, down 53.65% from the highest point 137.50 in the cycle (2021-08-08), and up 81.31% from the lowest point 35.15 on February 1, 2016. (Note: the period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

The upstream support is general, and the downstream demand is enhanced

Judging from the manufacturer’s quotation, the ex factory quotation of Shandong mainstream isooctanol manufacturers increased slightly this week: the octanol device of Jianlan chemical is under maintenance; The quotation of lihuayi isooctanol this weekend is 8600 yuan / ton, which is 600 yuan / ton higher than that of last weekend; Hualu Hengsheng offered 8800 yuan / ton of isooctanol this weekend, up 500 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week.

From the upstream raw material market of isooctanol, the propylene market fell slightly this week, with the price falling from 7634.60 yuan / ton last weekend to 7340.60 yuan / ton this weekend, a decrease of 3.85%, a year-on-year decrease of 3.85%. The market price of upstream raw materials fell slightly, and the cost support weakened. Affected by the supply and demand side, it had a negative impact on the price of isooctanol.

Judging from the downstream market of isooctanol, the ex factory price of DOP rose slightly this week. The DOP price rose from 8775.00 yuan / ton at the end of last week to 9172.50 yuan / ton at the end of this week, up 4.53%, down 39.79% year-on-year from the same period last year. Downstream DOP prices rose sharply, and downstream customers’ enthusiasm for purchasing isooctanol increased.

The upstream support is general, the downstream demand is enhanced, and isooctanol is bullish in the future

In late July, Shandong isooctanol market rose slightly. Although the upstream propylene market fell slightly and the cost support was general, the downstream DOP market rose slightly and the downstream demand increased. According to the isooctanol analysts of the business society, the short-term domestic isooctanol market may fluctuate and rise slightly under the influence of supply and demand, raw materials and other aspects.

1、 Price trend

It can be seen from the above figure that the domestic market price of neopentyl glycol fell slightly this week. This week, the average price of domestic neopentyl glycol in the mainstream market fell from 11200.00 yuan / ton last weekend to 11066.67 yuan / ton this weekend, down 1.19%. On July 24, the neopentyl glycol commodity index was 53.33, unchanged from yesterday, hitting a new low in the cycle, down 48.53% from the peak of 103.61 on September 22, 2021. (Note: the period refers to 2021-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

Prices of neopentyl glycol mainstream manufacturers fell this week.

From the upstream raw material market of neopentyl glycol, the domestic isobutyraldehyde market price fell slightly this week. The average price of isobutyraldehyde in the mainstream domestic market this week fell from 8466.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 8000.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 5.51%. The market price of upstream raw materials fell slightly, and the cost support weakened. Affected by the supply and demand side, it had a negative impact on the price of neopentyl glycol.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

In late July, the market trend of neopentyl glycol may fluctuate slightly and fall mainly. The upstream isobutyraldehyde market fell slightly, the cost support weakened, the downstream coating market was general, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm weakened. The neopentyl glycol analyst of business agency believes that under the influence of supply and demand, raw materials and other aspects of the short-term neopentyl glycol market, the market price may fluctuate slightly and fall mainly.

According to the bulk data monitoring of business agency, the mainstream price of styrene in Shandong fell violently this week. At the beginning of the week, the average price of Shandong styrene was 10278.57 yuan / ton, and at the weekend, the average price of Shandong styrene was 10085.71 yuan / ton, a decrease of 1.88%. The price increased by 8.01% over the same period last year.

styrene

Styrene market price fell this week. It can be seen from the above figure that the recent price of styrene has mainly fallen, and the price will continue to fall this week. The main reason is that affected by the continuous decline of crude oil prices, the price of pure benzene fluctuated and fell, which was difficult to support the styrene market, some maintenance devices were restarted, market stocks were expected to rise, and the overall news was weak. The spot price of styrene continued to decline.

In terms of raw materials, international crude oil continued to decline, pure benzene fell in the outer disk, and the guidance of external news was weak. The short-term pure benzene port inventory is tight, but the market is expected to increase supply in the future, the tight situation may be alleviated, and the market negotiation focus is soft. Recently, the price of pure benzene in China is 8800-9150 yuan / ton. The decline of pure benzene cannot support the price of styrene.

On the downstream side, the three major downstream styrene rose and fell mixed this week. At present, the PS market is weak and slightly down. The output increased slightly. The cost side support is weakened, merchants’ shipments are under pressure, and price reduction is the main operation. Zhenjiang Qimei pg33 reported 10420 yuan / ton, Taiwan Taihua 5250 reported 11550 yuan / ton, Ningbo Taihua 535n reported 10150 yuan / ton, Shanghai Secco 123p reported 10100 yuan / ton, Thailand Petrochemical 150 out of stock, 650 reported 10910 yuan / ton; Guangzhou Petrochemical 525 reported 10300 yuan / ton.

EPS price was stable this week. The overall transaction weakened month on month. The average price of EPS ordinary materials is 11450 yuan / ton. Compared with the same period last year, it increased by 6.51%. The cost support is weak, and the purchasing sentiment of terminal merchants is not high, mainly on the sidelines.

ABS market fell this week. At the beginning of the week, the average price of the mainstream offer of China General ABS was about 12550 yuan / ton, and at the end of the week, the average price of the mainstream offer of China General ABS was about 12450 yuan / ton, down 30.06% from the same period of the year. At present, the operating rate of ABS enterprises is forced to fall, which is about 80%. The on-site supply is still abundant, and the decline of industry load has limited support for the supply side. The current season is in the off-season of the industry. The main downstream players such as household appliances take less goods, and the demand in the field is weak. Merchants cut prices and take orders, and the offer is subject to the market.

Recently, the international crude oil market has continued to decline, the spot trading surface of styrene is low, and the market transaction is poor. Generally speaking, if the raw material surface falls next week, the styrene market will follow the decline.

According to the monitoring of business agency, this week (7.11-15), domestic adipic acid continued to decline, with a deeper decline, with a weekly decline of 6.19%. The market price range of adipic acid at the weekend is 10400-10600 yuan / ton. On the one hand, the upstream pure benzene was dragged down by crude oil, and continued to bottom, aggravating the negative cost side. In addition, the high inventory pressure in the early stage, the price reduction of the manufacturer’s inventory, the pressure on the market mentality, and the light market demand and other reasons.

In terms of market supply, the adipic acid operating rate this week was mainly flat compared with the previous week, and currently remains at about 65%. The pressure on manufacturers’ inventory gradually increased, and the prices of large manufacturers gradually lowered the listing price and collection price, with a range of more than 2000 yuan. In terms of commencement, some enterprises are mainly engaged in maintenance or load reduction production.

Adipic acid industry chain trend

The above figure shows that the adipic acid industrial chain is still relatively weak this week. The upstream products cyclohexanone and pure benzene all fell to varying degrees, but the decline was narrower than that at the beginning of the month. Adipic acid remained weak, and the focus of the transaction shifted significantly downward, indicating that the manufacturer’s profits were compressed. In addition, the downstream PA66 continued to be weak this week, the decline slowed down, and the terminal remained weak.

Market trend of pure benzene in the upstream of adipic acid

Market trend of cyclohexanone in the upstream of adipic acid

The support of upstream raw materials was insufficient, and the price of pure benzene fell again with the price of crude oil. According to the monitoring of business agency, the weekly decline of pure benzene was 2.70%. As the pressure of port inventory has been significantly relieved, it is currently in the process of decontamination; In addition, the downstream construction started to rise in July, which still supported the price of pure benzene. The overall supply side was tight, and the outlook was generally optimistic. Therefore, pure benzene resisted the decline compared with the downstream adipic acid, but the sharp decline in crude oil made the bearish effect of pure benzene obvious. Sinopec lowered its listing, and the pure benzene market was still suppressed. Cyclohexanone fell slightly, with a weekly decline of 1.0%.

Market trend of adipic acid downstream PA66

Terminal demand: the downstream performance of adipic acid is sluggish. Downstream procurement volume decreased. According to the monitoring of business agency, PA66 in the downstream of adipic acid rose or fell by 0. This week, the load level of domestic PA66 industry continued to fall in a narrow range, but the spot supply in the market is still abundant, and the supply pressure is difficult to solve. The inventory position of the port is acceptable, and the arrival volume of overseas goods is general. In terms of demand, at present, terminal enterprises take goods and follow up, preferring just to maintain production, and have strong resistance to high price supply. In the traditional off-season, the demand of downstream factories shrinks, the contradiction between supply and demand is prominent, and merchants have great resistance to shipping. The transaction on the floor fell, and the seller’s mentality was not good, so he gradually tried to reduce the yield order. In short, the weak downstream demand is the fundamental reason that restricts the rebound of adipic acid.

In the later stage, the business news agency believes that under the background of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike, the downward pressure on the upstream source crude oil increases, and the wide fluctuation in the later stage may continue to affect the downstream chemicals. From the perspective of supply, there are more adipic acid maintenance devices, but the accumulated inventory in the early stage is large, the market is gradually going away, and the demand is difficult to support the improvement of prices. It is expected that the adipic acid market will remain weak in the short term under the condition of continuous downturn in downstream demand.

According to the data monitored by the business club, as of July 17, the average price of domestic industrial grade high-quality cyclohexane was 9833.33 yuan / ton this week. The price of cyclohexane this week was mainly stable. At present, the operating rate is normal, the logistics is smooth, the transaction atmosphere is general, the negotiation atmosphere is stable, the quotation range of mainstream manufacturers is about 9100 yuan / ton, the purchasing atmosphere is general, the maintenance of stable operation is main, the focus of negotiation is stable, and the price fluctuation range this week is small.

The average price of domestic industrial grade superior cyclohexane in Japan is 9833.33 yuan / ton, and the quotation range of mainstream manufacturers remains about 9200 yuan / ton. The overall market supply and demand of cyclohexane is balanced, and the downstream just needs to purchase. The focus of negotiation is stable, and the supply side is normal. The latest prices of enterprises: 8400 yuan / ton for Jinan Mingyu Chemical Co., Ltd., 9800 yuan / ton for Liaocheng yuanze chemical products Co., Ltd., 9800 yuan / ton for Zhejiang jinmaotong Supply Chain Management Co., Ltd, Jinan Qichen Chemical Co., Ltd. is 9800 yuan / ton, and Zhejiang jinmaotong Supply Chain Management Co., Ltd. is 9800 yuan / ton.

Upstream pure benzene: mainly stable operation. On July 12, Sinopec North China: Qilu Petrochemical quoted 9150 yuan / ton, Shijiazhuang refining and chemical quoted 9150 yuan / ton, and Tianjin Petrochemical quoted 9300 yuan / ton; East China: Yangzi Petrochemical offers 9300 yuan / ton; South China: Hainan refining and Chemical Co., Ltd. offers 9300 yuan / ton; Central China: the quotation of Wuhan ethylene is 9300 yuan / ton; Others: Dongming Petrochemical quote 9100 yuan / ton, Jingbo Petrochemical quote 9000 yuan / ton, HSBC Petrochemical quote 9200 yuan / ton, Weilian chemical quote 9003 yuan / ton, Xinhai Petrochemical quote 9100 yuan / ton.

Chemical industry index: on July 14, the chemical industry index was 1050 points, down 21 points from yesterday, down 25.00% from the highest point of 1400 points in the cycle (2021-10-23), and up 75.59% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8, 2020. (Note: the period refers to 2011-12-01 to now)

According to the cyclohexane analyst of business agency, it is expected that the cyclohexane market will operate smoothly in the short term. (if you want to get more commodity information and master commodity prices, you are welcome to subscribe to the commodities of the business club through the official account of the business club. The market is an opportunity).

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the price of thermal coal is deadlocked this week. On July 17, the energy index was 1145 points, unchanged from yesterday, down 26.65% from the highest point 1561 points in the cycle (2021-10-21), and up 124.07% from the lowest point 511 points on March 1, 2016. (Note: the period refers to 2011-12-01 to now)

This week, the price of thermal coal is in a stalemate. The normal production and sales of coal mines in the main producing areas are dominated by state-owned large mines, and the marketable resources of coal are limited. The overall production and sales of mining areas are stable; In the downstream port market, the recent transaction is still relatively deadlocked, the power plant inventory is still high, the market purchase willingness is insufficient, and the coal price is more cautious. Under the shipping cost, the traders’ quotation is relatively strong, and the transaction is relatively deadlocked.

The data released by the National Bureau of statistics on July 14 showed that the national coal prices rose and fell in the first ten days of July. The specific price changes of each coal are as follows: the price of anthracite (washing medium block, volatile ≤ 8%) is 1857.5 yuan / ton, down 132.5 yuan / ton, or 6.7% from the previous period. The price of ordinary blended coal (blended coal of Shanxi pulverized coal and lump coal, with a calorific value of 4500 kcal) was 954.3 yuan / ton, an increase of 12.9 yuan / ton or 1.4% over the previous period. The price of Shanxi Dahuang (mixed coal with good quality and calorific value of 5000 kcal) was 1067.1 yuan / ton, an increase of 5.7 yuan / ton or 0.5% over the previous period. The price of Shanxi Youhun (high-quality blended coal with a calorific value of 5500 kcal) was 1247.1 yuan / ton, an increase of 5.7 yuan / ton or 0.5% over the previous period. The price of Datong blended coal (Datong blended coal with a calorific value of 5800 kcal) was 1337.1 yuan / ton, an increase of 5.7 yuan / ton or 0.4% over the previous period.

According to the analysts of business society, in terms of origin, the output of coal in the main origin remains stable, the downstream market is deadlocked, and the enthusiasm for procurement is not high. It is still mainly to supplement Changxie coal, and affected by the policy, the coal prices in ports and origin return to a reasonable space. It is comprehensively expected that the thermal coal will be vibrated, sorted out and operated, depending on the downstream market demand.

According to the monitoring of the business agency, the trend of the domestic rare earth market price index fell this week, and the domestic rare earth industry continued to decline. On July 17, the rare earth index was 787 points, unchanged from yesterday, down 21.85% from the highest point of 1007 points in the cycle (2022-02-24), and up 190.41% from the lowest point of 271 points on September 13, 2015. (Note: the period refers to 2011-12-01 to now).

This week, the price of products in the domestic light rare earth market continued to fall, and the trend of praseodymium and neodymium series, the mainstream in the rare earth market, fell. In terms of products:

As can be seen from the product price trend chart, the domestic prices of neodymium metal, praseodymium metal, neodymium oxide, praseodymium oxide, praseodymium neodymium alloy and praseodymium neodymium oxide continued to fall. As of the 18th, the price of neodymium oxide in domestic rare earth was 890000 yuan / ton, and the price fell by 5.57% this week; The price of neodymium was 1.12 million yuan / ton, with a decrease of 4.27%; The price of praseodymium oxide was 885000 yuan / ton, with a decrease of 6.60%; The price of praseodymium neodymium oxide was 831500 yuan / ton, down 6.31% this week; The price of praseodymium neodymium alloy was 1.02 million yuan / ton, down 6.85%; The price of praseodymium metal was 1.185 million yuan / ton, and the price trend fell by 3.66%. The domestic rare earth market continued to decline this week.

The domestic rare earth market price has continued to decline, the recent downstream procurement is not active, and the number of new orders is relatively small. This week, the market trend of praseodymium and neodymium products fell, the wait-and-see mood of magnetic material enterprises deepened, and the purchase intention was weak. Due to the normal supply of mainstream products such as praseodymium and neodymium oxide in some large groups, some small waste recycling enterprises are affected by the shortage of waste supply, and the raw material inventory is insufficient to reduce production. Magnetic material enterprises are mostly distributed in Zhejiang. Affected by the epidemic in the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta, the demand for orders of downstream new energy vehicles, electric two wheeled vehicles and other vehicles has shrunk, the demand for spot procurement is weak, and the on-site prices have fallen slightly. The downstream demand side has not been significantly improved, the procurement demand is limited, the market negotiation atmosphere is general, and the market price of light rare earth praseodymium and neodymium is mainly declining. This week, the price of praseodymium and neodymium products continued to fall. Separation enterprises took the initiative to reduce their offers, and purchased cautiously. Traders offered actively, and some merchants intended to ship at a profit. The purchase intention of metal plants is not high, and the mentality is waiting for the future, and the market trend of light rare earth is declining.

The national environmental protection supervision is still continuing. Rare earth is purchased on demand. At present, the inventory of neodymium oxide praseodymium has not changed much. Affected by the sentiment of buying up or not, the price trend on the floor has declined slightly. According to statistics, the demand for new energy vehicles has increased. The data released by the China Association of automobile manufacturers shows that in June 2022, China’s automobile production and sales reached 2.499 million and 2.522 million respectively, with a month on month increase of 29.7% and 34.4% respectively, and a year-on-year increase of 28.2% and 23.8% respectively. Automobile production and sales have increased significantly. Recently, the demand in the field of new energy is general, the domestic light rare earth market has continued to decline, and the domestic heavy rare earth market price has declined slightly.

It can be seen from the trend chart that the price of dysprosium Series in China fell. As of the 18th, the price of dysprosium oxide was 2.35 million yuan / ton, and the price fell by 2.69% this week; Dysprosium ferroalloy price was 2.33 million yuan / ton, and the price trend fell by 3.52%; The price of dysprosium metal was 3.13 million yuan / ton, down 1.57% this week; The price trend of domestic terbium is mainly declining. The price of domestic terbium oxide is 13.55 million yuan / ton, and the price of metal terbium is 17.45 million yuan / ton. The price of heavy rare earths fell slightly, and the leading magnetic material factory purchased on demand, which made the domestic heavy rare earth market fall slightly. The raw material inventory of separation enterprises in the areas where light rare earth mines are used in Sichuan and other places decreased. The reduction of this part of supply had little impact on the operating rate of separation plants in the areas where light rare earth mines are used. However, recently, with the epidemic being controlled, production enterprises have started gradually, the supply side has eased, and the rare earth market atmosphere continues to be flat, Downstream magnetic material enterprises just need to follow up as planned, and their mood is more cautious. However, Myanmar’s exports are limited, and the global supply of rare earth is relatively concentrated. Myanmar is one of the production areas next to China and the United States. Myanmar has a great impact on products in the domestic heavy rare earth market, and the price of heavy rare earth in the market fell slightly.

In addition, the state policy supports the rare earth market. The first batch of Rare Earth total amount control indicators in 2022 are in line with expectations, and the industry pattern continues to be optimized. The Ministry of industry and information technology and the Ministry of natural resources issued the first batch of Rare Earth total amount control indicators in 2022, of which the mining indicators and smelting separation indicators are 100800 tons and 97200 tons respectively. The increase of the index is in line with expectations, and the country is still relatively restrained in releasing the rare earth supply index. In 2022, the first batch of ore indicators / smelting separation indicators were all +20% year-on-year, with a growth rate lower than that of the first batch in 2021 (year-on-year +27.3%/27.6%), and it is expected that the overall supply and demand of rare earth will remain tight in 22 years. The index increment is still concentrated on light rare earth. Among the mining indicators in 2022, rock type rare earths (mainly light rare earths) were 89310 tons, up +23.2% year-on-year, and ionic rare earths were 11490 tons, flat year-on-year. It is expected that the increase concentrated on light rare earths will be a long-term trend, and the domestic rare earth market will still be supported in the long run.

The sustainable development of new energy vehicles, wind power and variable frequency air conditioning in the downstream of rare earth, coupled with the recent resumption of production of terminal factories, the orders of upstream magnetic material enterprises have not improved. Even if the government has issued policies such as halving the purchase tax, the consumption of terminal new energy vehicles will be boosted in the later stage. Business community analyst Chen Ling predicts that the short-term downstream procurement is not active, and the domestic rare earth market price may continue to decline slightly.

1、 Market trend analysis of upstream acetic acid

This week (7.11-15), the domestic acetic acid market continued to decline. According to the monitoring of business agency, acetic acid fell by 2.91% this week, slowing down slightly. At present, the inventory pressure of acetic acid manufacturers is relieved compared with that at the beginning of the month. Due to the continuous decline of prices, the profits of manufacturers have fallen sharply, approaching the cost line, and the operating rate of enterprises has also decreased. Most manufacturers mainly reduce the load and start up, Jiangsu Thorpe reduces the load and operates, Shanghai Huayi plant is still under maintenance, and the load of other sets of plants has also decreased. However, due to the sufficient supply of acetic acid, enterprises have accumulated a large amount of inventory in the early stage, so the market supply and demand structure still remains in excess of demand, which will continue to suppress the rebound of acetic acid price, which is about 3600-3750 yuan / ton at the weekend.

2、 Market trend analysis of ethyl acetate

This week (7.11-15), domestic ethyl acetate mainly stopped falling and stabilized. According to the statistics of business agency, the decline this week was 0.66%. At present, ethyl acetate is still affected by the negative cost caused by the decline of raw acetic acid. However, the transaction of Shandong big factory is in good condition, and the psychology of low price bottom hunting in the downstream leads to a slight premium. Therefore, the price of ethyl acetate remained rigid this week, but from the terminal point of view, the order in July was still insufficient, and the demand was relatively weak, which was still an important factor for the rebound of ethyl acetate. As of Friday, the price of ethyl acetate was in the range of 7500-7700 yuan / ton.

3、 Market trend analysis of butyl acetate

This week (7.11-15), the domestic butyl acetate continued to be weak, and the price continued to decline this week. According to the monitoring of business community, the weekly decline of butyl acetate was 3.02%. On the one hand, the cost is bad, and the dual raw materials are lower. The operating rate of butyl ester remains low, but under the influence of weak demand, the market transaction is not good. The market supply remains within a reasonable range. Due to the long-term inactivity of butyl ester, the operating rate of the unit is low. There is not much pressure on supply. Butyl acetate remained weak due to the relatively weak downstream demand. In addition, the price of raw material n-butanol was still low. According to monitoring, n-butanol fell by 2.56% this week. Superimposed on the price advantages of alternative products and other factors, the domestic mainstream quotation of butyl acetate at the weekend was 8900-9200 yuan / ton.

4、 Analysis of acetic acid industry chain

From the comparison chart of the rise and fall of the acetic acid industry chain, it can be seen that since July, the acetic acid industry chain has been relatively weak as a whole, and the decline of acetic acid is still obvious, which has a great impact on the whole industry chain. The downstream ethyl acetate, butyl acetate, acetic anhydride and other products have declined to varying degrees. The transmission effect of the industry chain, the resonance of the market under the order, is strong.

5、 Outlook of acetic acid industry chain

Aftermarket forecast: in the short term, the acetic acid industry chain is still weak. While the upstream costs are bad, it also eases the cost pressure on the downstream. Recently, some acetic acid manufacturers have maintenance plans, the supply pressure may be relieved in the later stage, and the market may stop or slow down. The cost of downstream ethyl acetate and butyl ester may be supported in the later stage. However, considering that the terminal demand is still relatively low and the orders in July are insufficient, it is expected that ethyl acetate may remain weak, and butyl may gradually stop falling under the influence of the lower operating rate.