1、 Trend analysis

According to the monitoring of nickel price of the Business Agency, the nickel price fell slightly in February. The nickel price at the beginning of the month was yuan/ton, and the nickel price at the end of the month fell slightly to 204266.67 yuan/ton, with an overall decline of 12.05% and a year-on-year increase of 13.42%.

Macroscopically, the US Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25bps at the beginning of the month, basically in line with market expectations. With the release of key economic data such as US non-agricultural data and inflation data, the market’s concern about the economic recession has been greatly reduced, and the probability of the US Federal Reserve to maintain austerity has increased. At the same time, the statements of several officials of the US Federal Reserve in February also supported the constant increase of interest rates to curb inflation, which has put some pressure on the metal sector. Domestically, the domestic economic recovery is slow and the demand for commodities is limited.

In terms of supply: due to the shortage of goods in the Philippines during the rainy season, the mine has not changed its willingness to price up under the attitude of cherishing goods. The overall import situation remained at a low level. By the end of the month, the national nickel ore inventory in ports fell 425000 wet tons to 7177000 wet tons on a month-on-month basis, with a total equivalent of 56400 gold tons.

In terms of demand: the demand for stainless steel has recovered slightly recently, but the overall operation is still weak, dragging down the transaction price of ferronickel. The profits of iron plants are gradually under pressure, and the power of downstream replenishment is insufficient. The support of iron plants for high nickel ore prices is weakened.

To sum up: under the background of the restart of overseas windows and the increase of nickel electrodeposition, the contradiction of pure nickel supply has been alleviated, while the recovery of downstream demand is less than expected, and the stainless steel inventory is at a historical high. The negative feedback is transmitted upward, which also aggravates the decline of nickel price. In addition, LME restarted nickel trading during the Asian session, and domestic manufacturers also began to solve the shortage of pure nickel delivery products, which will open up space for further decline of nickel prices in the future. In general, there are certain pressures on both the macro and fundamental aspects of nickel, of which pure nickel is more obviously under the expected pressure of supply growth, while stainless steel is expected to benefit from the domestic economic warming, and the downward space may be limited. It is expected that the nickel price will fluctuate slightly in March.

According to the data monitored by the Business News Agency, as of February 24, the price of lithium iron phosphate, a high-quality power product, was 145000 yuan/ton. Compared with the same period last week, the market of lithium iron phosphate was stable, and the overall price changed little. The mainstream price range was around 145000 yuan/ton. It was mainly for contract customers, and new orders were not accepted.

This week, lithium iron phosphate operated smoothly, with a limited range of price fluctuations. At present, the mainstream price is 145000 yuan/ton. The upstream price is weak, and the cost support of lithium iron phosphate is insufficient. The downstream purchase is based on demand, and the manufacturers supply only old customers. The overall market operation is stable, the operating rate is normal, and the logistics is smooth. In the short term, lithium iron phosphate operates smoothly.

Chemical commodity index: On February 23, the chemical index was 917 points, up 2 points from yesterday, down 34.50% from the highest point of 1400 points in the cycle (2021-10-23), and up 53.34% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8, 2020. (Note: the period refers to 2011-12-01 to now).

Analyst of lithium iron phosphate of the Business Society believes that the lithium iron phosphate market is mainly stable in the short term.

The domestic acetone market continued to push up. The negotiated price in East China was 5700-5850 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 150-200 yuan/ton. According to the monitoring data of the Business News Agency, the negotiated price of acetone in East China was 5150 yuan/ton on February 1, and 5750 yuan/ton on February 21, with a cumulative increase of 11.65% in February.

Since February, the domestic mainstream factories have repeatedly raised the listing price, which strongly supported the market. Affected by the continuous tight supply in the current market, petrochemical enterprises have actively raised the listing price for many times, with a cumulative increase of 600-700 yuan/ton. In the early stage, the phenol and ketone factory suffered losses, and the overall operating rate of the phenol and ketone factory was 80%. Boosted by the tight supply, the factory has been more active in raising the price.

The supply of imported goods is insufficient, the port stock continues to decline, and the domestic production in some regions is limited. On the one hand, the inventory of acetone at Jiangyin Port is 25000 tons, down 0.3% from last week. In the near future, the arrival of ships is insufficient, and the inventory of the port may continue to decline. On the other hand, if the contract volume in North China is exhausted near the end of the month, the domestic resources are limited, and it is difficult to find the supply of goods for the downstream just to follow up, and the price rises.

As the acetone continues to rise, the downstream multi-dimensional demand for replenishment is still in demand. Because the downstream industry profits are fair and the operating rate is stable as a whole, the demand for follow-up and stable development of delivery and investment.

From the perspective of the business community, the acetone market continued to operate steadily. The continued tightening of the supply side in the short term strongly supports the market. Overseas market prices are rising and exports are improving. The operation of domestic downstream units is stable under the trend of profit, and the demand for raw materials continues. The domestic resource contract is limited near the end of the month, and the traders have a positive attitude, which keeps pushing up the sentiment.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the Business News Agency, the average market price of 55% of powdered monoammonium phosphate in China was 3317 yuan/ton on February 13, and the average market price of 55% of powdered monoammonium phosphate in China was 3310 yuan/ton on February 20. The market price of monoammonium phosphate fell 0.23% this week.

According to the data of Business News Agency, the average market price of 64% of diammonium phosphate in China was 4010 yuan/ton on February 13, and the average market price of 64% of diammonium phosphate in China was 3975 yuan/ton on February 20. The market price of diammonium phosphate fell 0.87% this week.

2、 Market analysis

The price of monoammonium phosphate fell this week. On Monday, the market demand for ammonium was sluggish, the purchasing enthusiasm of downstream compound fertilizer enterprises was reduced, and the new orders were less traded. At present, the operating rate of monoammonium enterprises has increased and the market supply has increased. As of February 20, the market price of 55 powdered ammonium in Hubei was about 3300 yuan/ton, the ex-factory price of 55 powdered ammonium in Henan was about 3250 yuan/ton, and the market price of 55 powdered ammonium in Sichuan was about 3250-3400 yuan/ton, which was mainly based on actual negotiation.

This month, the price of diammonium phosphate was put into operation. The price of raw phosphate rock is high and the cost support is strong. The supply of diammonium chloride was tight and the price remained firm. Most manufacturers suspend the receipt of orders and mainly issue advance orders and foreign orders. As of February 20, the 64% market price of diammonium chloride in Hubei was about 3800-3850 yuan/ton, and the 64% market price of diammonium chloride in Shandong was about 4000-4150 yuan/ton, and the actual deal was negotiated.

In terms of raw sulfur, the price of sulfur in East China fell first and then rose this week. Domestic refinery units operate normally, the supply of goods in the market is stable, the enthusiasm of the downstream to take goods is not good at the beginning of the week, and the manufacturer’s inventory is sufficient. In order to stimulate the shipment, the sulfur price is reduced, the downstream procurement is increased at the end of the week, and the enterprise’s shipment is stable. Some manufacturers raise their prices according to their own inventory, and the overall price fluctuation during the week is not large.

In terms of raw phosphorus ore, the overall high level of the phosphorus ore market this week was relatively strong. This week, the domestic market price of 30% grade phosphate ore is around 1050-1100 yuan/ton, and the price of 28% grade phosphate ore is around 950-980 yuan/ton. The reference price of 32% grade phosphate ore is around 1180-1250 yuan/ton.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

According to the ammonium phosphate analyst of the business agency, the market demand for ammonium phosphate is poor at present, and the transaction on the market is weak. At present, the supply of monoammonium is more than demand in the market, and the price of monoammonium is expected to continue to decline in the short term. The supply of diammonium phosphate is still tight, and it is expected that diammonium phosphate will be mainly consolidated and operated in the short term.

Recent urea price trend

It can be seen from the above figure that the domestic urea market price fell first and then rose this week. The urea price fell from 2788.00 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 2756.00 yuan/ton at the end of this week, a decrease of 1.15%, up 2.76% year-on-year. The urea commodity index on February 19 was 128.19, which was the same as yesterday, down 15.85% from the cycle’s highest point of 152.33 (2022-05-15), and up 130.56% from the lowest point of 55.60 on August 17, 2016. (Note: the period refers to September 1, 2011 to now)

Cost support is general, downstream demand increases, and urea supply is tight

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the mainstream price of domestic urea fell this week.

From the data of the upstream and downstream industry chain, the urea upstream market rose and fell this week: the price of liquefied natural gas rose slightly, from 5724.00 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 5902.00 yuan/ton at the end of this week, up 3.11%, down 2.45% from the same period last year; The price of anthracite decreased slightly, and the price of Yangquan anthracite (washing lump) was 1630 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton from last week; The price of liquid ammonia rose slightly, from 4206.67 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 4290.00 yuan/ton at the end of this week, up 1.98%, down 2.94% year on year. Upstream raw material prices rose and fell, and urea prices were generally supported. The price of melamine downstream of urea fell slightly this week, from 8333.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 8266.67 yuan/ton at the end of the week, down 0.80%.

In terms of demand, agricultural demand increased slightly, while industrial demand increased. The operating rate of compound fertilizer plants has gradually increased, and the enthusiasm for urea procurement has increased. The start of plate and melamine enterprises has increased slightly, and the purchase of raw materials is mainly needed. From the perspective of supply, some gas-fired enterprises have begun to resume production, with a daily urea output of about 150000 to 160000 tons.

Mainly rising slightly in the future

The domestic urea market may rise slightly in late February. According to the urea analyst of the Business Agency, the prices of anthracite and liquefied gas in the upstream of urea have risen and fallen, and the cost of urea is generally supported. Downstream agricultural demand increased slightly and industrial demand increased. Some gas-head enterprises began to resume production, and the daily output of urea was about 150000 to 160000 tons. In the future, urea rose mainly in a narrow range.

The market of dichloromethane rose slightly this week (2.10~2.17). As of February 17, the average price of dichloromethane bulk water in Shandong was 2482 yuan/ton, up 1.95% from 2435 yuan/ton last Friday. The price of raw material methanol rose slightly this week, while the price of liquid chlorine continued to rise and the cost support strengthened; The factory price of dichloromethane enterprises is adjusted upward; The sharp rise of downstream refrigerant R32 price just needs support for the purchase of dichloromethane. In addition to the shutdown and maintenance of a total of 460000 tons/year of methane chloride plants, the supply side is expected to be tight, and the price of dichloromethane is higher.

This week (2.10~2.17), the price of raw methanol rose slightly, and the cost of dichloromethane was supported. According to the business news agency, the spot price of methanol was 2721 yuan/ton as of February 17, up 1.33% from 2685 yuan/ton on February 10.

Downstream third-generation refrigerant R32 rose sharply after the festival. Downstream inquiries were mainly small orders, and the stock was replenished as needed. The market supply was tight, and the transaction was positive.

Future market forecast: the methane chloride data analyst of the Business News Agency believes that the cost of dichloromethane continues to support at present, and the downstream just needs support. In addition to the shutdown and maintenance of some enterprises’ devices, it is expected that the market of dichloromethane will continue to rise slightly in the future.

Acetic anhydride prices fell slightly this week

According to the data monitoring of the Business Agency, the price of acetic anhydride fell slightly this week. As of February 10, the price of acetic anhydride was 5412.50 yuan/ton, down 1.14% from 5475 yuan/ton on February 1; The price of acetic anhydride dropped by 1.14% from 5475 yuan/ton on February 5 last weekend. This week, the price of acetic acid fell, the cost of acetic anhydride fell, and the price of acetic anhydride fell in shock.

The price of acetic acid stabilized after falling this week

As can be seen from the chart of acetic acid price trend of the business community, as of February 10, the price of acetic acid was 3295 yuan/ton, which was stable compared with that of acetic anhydride on February 5 last weekend; The price of acetic acid dropped by 1.54% from 3245 yuan/ton on February 1. This week, the price of acetic acid stabilized after falling, the cost of acetic anhydride decreased, and the upward momentum of acetic anhydride weakened, and the downward pressure increased.

Methanol prices fell in shock this week

As can be seen from the methanol price trend chart of the business community, as of February 10, the methanol price was 2685.71 yuan/ton, down 0.69% from the price of 2704.29 yuan/ton on February 5 last weekend; Compared with the price of 2780 yuan/ton on February 1, the price fell by 3.39%. This week, methanol prices fell in shock, the cost of acetic anhydride fell, and the upward momentum of acetic anhydride weakened, and the downward pressure increased.

Future prospects

Analysts of the acetic anhydride data of the Business News Agency believe that the price of acetic acid has stabilized after falling this week, the price of methanol has fallen in shock, and the cost of acetic anhydride has declined; Downstream demand for acetic anhydride has not recovered enough, and the upward momentum of acetic anhydride price has weakened and the downward pressure has increased. In the future, the cost of acetic anhydride fell and the demand was poor, and the price of acetic anhydride fell in shock.

1、 Price trend

It can be seen from the above figure that the domestic market of imported potassium chloride this week is temporarily stable, with the price of 3866.67 yuan/ton. The arrival price of domestic salt lake potassium chloride this week is 3500-3600 yuan/ton. The port has about 2.6 million tons. The commodity index of potassium chloride (import) on February 12 was 101.75, which was the same as yesterday, down 29.70% from the highest point of 144.74 (2022-06-21) in the cycle, and up 5.21% from the lowest point of 96.71 on September 16, 2021. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2021 to now)

2、 Market analysis

This week, the quotation of domestic potassium chloride mainstream manufacturers is temporarily stable: the arrival price of 60% potassium chloride in Qinghai Salt Lake is 3500-3600 yuan/ton. The port’s 62% white potassium self-raised price is about 3700-3800 yuan/ton. The self-raised price of 60% Dahong granules at the port is about 3800-4000 yuan/ton. 62% of Russian white potassium in border trade is about 3500-3600 yuan/ton.

From the downstream market of potassium chloride, the ex-factory price of potassium carbonate was low this week, with the price of 9075.00 yuan/ton, up 9.78% year-on-year. This week, the ex-factory price of potassium nitrate consolidated at a low level, with the price of 5875.00 yuan/ton, down 3.69% from the same period last year. On the whole, the downstream market of potassium chloride is low and the demand of downstream customers for potassium chloride is general.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

In the middle and late February, the overall trend of the potassium chloride market may fall in a narrow range, mainly in consolidation. The prices of potassium chloride in salt lakes and Zangger were low. The downstream market of potassium chloride is low, and the downstream demand is weakened, and the purchase is mainly in demand. International potash fertilizer prices continued to fall. Analysts of KCl from the Business Agency believe that the import price of domestic KCl may fall slightly in the short term.

According to the monitoring data of the Business News Agency, as of February 10, 2023, the reference market price of domestic industrial propylene glycol was 8333 yuan/ton. Compared with February 5 (the reference price of propylene glycol was 8066 yuan/ton), the price increased by 267 yuan/ton, or 3.31%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of the business agency that this week (2.06-2.10), the domestic propylene glycol market overall showed an upward trend. At the beginning of the week, the cost support for propylene glycol from the rising market of raw material propylene oxide continued to strengthen, and the market center of propylene glycol continued to strengthen, the stock on the market was controllable, and some manufacturers limited shipment. As of February 10, the domestic propylene glycol market price was around 8200-8500 yuan/ton, and the price was increased by about 200-400 yuan/ton compared with the beginning of the week.

Future trend analysis

At present, the intra-field trading atmosphere of propylene glycol is mild, and the downstream demand is steadily released. Supported by the cost side, the propylene glycol industry is in a good mood. The propylene glycol statistician of the business agency believes that in the short term, the domestic propylene glycol market is mainly stable, moderate and strong, and more attention should be paid to the changes in the supply and demand information.

Market analysis of this week

According to the monitoring of Business News Agency, the average price in the domestic market was 22000 yuan/ton as of March, up 1.23% from last week. At the beginning of the week, the price of magnesium rose slightly by 200 yuan/ton, and then stabilized.

Supply and demand

The magnesium plant was shut down for maintenance before and after the holiday. After the holiday, the price of the factory was firm. The downstream customers were still waiting and waiting. The overall demand was poor. Some customers mainly digested the temporary inventory.

Raw materials

The average market price of ferrosilicon in Ningxia is around 7900-8100 yuan/ton. After the Spring Festival, the futures market price dropped sharply, driving the spot market price to lower. Ferrosilicon manufacturers in Ningxia have resumed production in succession, while production in other regions is relatively stable, with the national operating rate (capacity utilization rate) of 45.21% as of February 2; The average daily output is 17058 tons. National ferrosilicon production (weekly supply): 119400 tons.

The price of blue charcoal in Fugu market was stable. All coal mines have not yet resumed work and production, and the upstream and downstream of the blue charcoal enterprises have a wait-and-see attitude, and the market is strongly bearish about coal prices.

Aftermarket forecast

In general, the market advocates a cautious wait-and-see atmosphere, and the manufacturers’ quotation sentiment is strong, but the small drop in raw material prices and the poor follow-up of downstream demand have led to the pressure on magnesium ingot prices. Considering the rigid demand of some enterprises entering the market after the Lantern Festival, it is expected that the short-term magnesium ingot prices will remain stable.