1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of February 27th, the reference average price of domestic urea market was 1892 yuan/ton, which is 8.63% higher than the reference average price of 1741 yuan/ton on February 1st.

2、 Market analysis

This month, the domestic urea market prices have shown a strong upward trend. Starting after the Spring Festival, the demand for urea in the domestic market began to increase. At present, it is the peak season for spring plowing, with an increase in agricultural demand and industrial demand. The urea market transactions are improving, and enterprise shipments are smooth.

market conditions

As of February 27th, the ex factory price of urea in Shandong region is around 1820-1860 yuan/ton, in Hebei region it is around 1840 yuan/ton, in Henan region it is around 1830 yuan/ton, and in Liaoning region it is around 1880 yuan/ton.

According to the weekly K-bar chart from December 2, 2024 to February 17, 2025, it can be seen that the domestic ammonium sulfate cycle is fluctuating. In February, domestic urea prices rose significantly, with the largest increase being 1.77% in the week of February 2nd and 10th,

Supply and demand situation

In terms of supply, the urea market has remained stable this month, with some regions experiencing tight supply and high daily urea production in China. In terms of demand, the demand for urea has been continuously increasing this month, and downstream procurement enthusiasm has increased, resulting in an increase in market transaction volume. At present, there is strong support from the domestic urea supply and demand side.

3、 Future forecast

Business Society’s urea analyst believes that the urea market trend has continued to rise recently. The transaction volume in the urea market is improving, and downstream replenishment is active. But as urea prices continue to rise, the cautious mentality of downstream procurement increases. It is expected that in the short term, the domestic urea market will mainly experience a narrow range of price consolidation and operation.

At present, the domestic price of sodium metabisulfite is stable, with an average weekly price of 1853 yuan/ton for industrial grade sodium metabisulfite. The upstream soda ash price of sodium metabisulfite fell by 4.95%, while the downstream caprolactam price rose by 4.08%, resulting in light trading in the metabisulfite market. (The above prices refer to the quotes provided by mainstream domestic enterprises, and some unreported enterprises are temporarily not within their scope. The prices are for reference only and are not related to the final pricing of the manufacturers. For details, please contact each manufacturer for consultation.). It is expected that domestic market prices will mainly fluctuate and weaken in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the toluene market fluctuated downward from February 17 to February 24, 2025. On February 17th, the benchmark price of toluene was 6640 yuan/ton, and on February 24th, the benchmark price of toluene was 6570 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.05%. This week, the overall toluene market has been weak, with market prices experiencing several small price reductions. The performance of the oil blending industry in Shandong region is average, with xylene prices operating at a low level. Some purchasing refineries tend to purchase xylene, lacking demand support for the weak operation of the toluene market in Shandong region. The overall supply of goods in East and South China is tight this week, and the holders have a strong mentality of raising prices. Downstream purchasing intentions are generally low, and the market performance is weak due to the lack of demand support.

Cost aspect: During this cycle, crude oil prices first rose and then fell. As of February 21st, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $70.40 per barrel. The settlement price of the main Brent crude oil futures contract is $74.43 per barrel. The geopolitical risks in the Middle East have decreased, and the premium of oil prices has fallen; In addition, the increase in US crude oil inventories has affected investor confidence. During this cycle, crude oil prices have fluctuated at a low level. On the one hand, the US has imposed tariffs and Trump has requested OPEC to increase production to lower oil prices. In addition, US crude oil inventories remain high, and there are still concerns in the market about crude oil demand, which has suppressed crude oil prices; On the other hand, the geopolitical situation between Russia and Ukraine has eased, and crude oil market prices remain low.

Supply side: Sinopec’s toluene enterprise is operating normally, with stable production of equipment and many products for personal use, resulting in stable production and sales. As of February 24th, East China Company quoted 6600 yuan/ton, North China Company quoted 6500 yuan/ton, South China Company quoted 6600-6700 yuan/ton, and Central China Company quoted 6550 yuan/ton.

Demand side:

On February 24th, the price of xylene in the petrochemical sales company was temporarily stable, with a current execution price of 7500 yuan/ton. This price was implemented in East China, North China, Central China, and South China. The operation of Yangzi Petrochemical, Zhenhai Petrochemical and other facilities was stable, with normal sales, and the price was temporarily stable compared to February 17th. As of February 21st, the closing prices of the xylene market in Asia were 860-862 US dollars/ton FOB Korea and 885-887 US dollars/ton CFR China, an increase of only 1 US dollar/ton compared to the closing price on February 14th.

Market forecast: The recent performance of the crude oil market is weak, and there is insufficient guidance for the market. In terms of supply, the arrival of ships in the East and South China regions has been limited recently, and the cargo holders have a strong mentality of raising prices. However, the overall performance of the demand side is poor, and the focus is on on-demand procurement. Overall, the supply side is tight but lacks downstream demand support. It is expected that the toluene market will maintain a high volatility trend in the short term, with a focus on port and shipping schedules as well as the commencement of maintenance work by companies

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the styrene market slightly rose this week, with an average price of 8640 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 8656 yuan/ton over the weekend, an increase of 0.19% during the week.

News: Crude oil has fluctuated and risen this week. On February 21st, the settlement price of international crude oil futures closed slightly higher. The settlement price of WTI crude oil futures in March rose by 0.32 US dollars, or 0.44%, to 72.57 US dollars per barrel. Brent crude oil futures for April closed up $0.44, or 0.58%, at $76.48 per barrel.

On the cost side: Pure benzene has slightly declined this week, with poor shipments from Eastern refining companies and market promotions resulting in further price reductions. The price of pure benzene in Sinopec’s refineries in East and South China remains stable. The spot price of pure benzene in East China is consolidating at a high level. International crude oil futures closed higher, but confidence in the pure benzene market remains strong.

Supply and demand side: styrene production remains at a high level, port inventory has decreased but remains high, downstream 3S has resumed work one after another, EPS production has rebounded, and demand has increased.

Market forecast: The current pressure on styrene inventory remains, and supply remains loose. The cost support is strong, but the demand is weak and the upward trend is weak. It is expected that the short-term market trend of styrene will fluctuate within a certain range.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, starting from February 11th, the domestic adipic acid market has experienced a weak decline, with the main trend being the decline. On February 11th, the average market price of adipic acid was 8600 yuan/ton. On February 17th, the average market price of adipic acid in China was 8533 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.78%.

Negative pressure suppresses the decline of domestic adipic acid market

Starting from February 10th, the prices of pure benzene and cyclohexanone raw materials for adipic acid have fallen, and the demand in the terminal industry is relatively stable. There is an oversupply of adipic acid in the market, and the shipping prices of adipic acid manufacturers and traders have gradually decreased. The market transactions are average, and the sales are flat. The average market price of adipic acid has dropped to 8400-8500 yuan/ton, with an overall decrease of 50-100 yuan/ton.

An analyst from Shengyi Society believes that at the end of February, the demand in the terminal industry was average, and the raw material market was weak and consolidated. The adipic acid market may mainly decline in the future.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic price of sodium metabisulfite remained stable this week. The average price of industrial grade sodium metabisulfite at the beginning of the week was 1850 yuan/ton, and the average price over the weekend was 1850 yuan/ton, indicating stable prices.

This week, the domestic industrial grade sodium metabisulfite market price remained stable. The upstream soda ash price of sodium metabisulfite was temporarily stable this week, while the downstream caprolactam price rose by 0.61%. However, downstream market transactions fell short of expectations and prices were difficult to support. (The above prices refer to the quotes provided by mainstream domestic enterprises, and some unreported enterprises are temporarily not within their scope. The prices are for reference only and are not related to the final pricing of the manufacturers. For details, please contact each manufacturer for consultation.).

Future forecast

At present, the trading volume of sodium metabisulfite market is light, and it is expected that the domestic market price will mainly fluctuate and weaken in the short term.