According to the bulk list data of Business News Agency, in March, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market fluctuated and fell, with a rebound at the end of the month. At the beginning of March, the market was at 7522 yuan/ton, and on March 29, the average price was 7096 yuan/ton, with a monthly decrease of 5.66%, down 16.52% compared to the same period last year.

As of March 29, the mainstream prices of propylene in various regions in China are as follows:

Region/ March 29th

Shandong region/ 7100-7150 yuan/ton

Northeast China/ 6700-6800 yuan/ton

East China Region/ 7000-7250 yuan/ton

In March, the overall performance of the propylene market was weak, with small gains and small losses dominating. At the beginning of March, intramarket trading was moderate, manufacturers’ inventory was controllable, and individual enterprises ceded profits to sell goods, resulting in a narrow decline in propylene prices. In mid to late March, downstream procurement was cautious and bargain-hunting led to lower demand for propylene, which was tentatively driven up by upstream demand. However, due to the impact of lower oil price shocks, the industry was mostly bearish and constrained the propylene market, leading to a volatile decline in the propylene market throughout the month. As the end of the month approached, oil prices rebounded while propylene prices were adjusted to a low level, leading to a rebound in prices. As of March 29, the mainstream price in the Shandong propylene market was 7070-7100 yuan/ton.

Cost side: In March, the price of upstream propylene products fell significantly, especially the prices of propane and liquefied gas. The overall price of oil fluctuated and decreased, and the weak cost side had a significant impact on the negative impact of propylene. On the demand side: downstream derivatives of propylene have seen a large decline and a small increase. The main downstream polypropylene is generally weak, while other downstream products have performed mediocrely, and the demand side remains just in demand.

The propylene analyst from the Chemical Branch of the Business Society believes that the propylene market rebounded at the end of the month, with a slight boost in confidence on the market. The propylene factory has been able to move smoothly at low prices and effectively eliminate inventory. It is expected that the propylene market will continue to rise in a narrow range in April.

1、 Trend analysis

According to the monitoring of nickel prices by the Business Agency, nickel prices fell first and then rose this week. As of March 24, the spot nickel quotation was 182800 yuan/ton, down 1.11% from the beginning of the week and 26.07% year-on-year.

Nickel weekly fluctuation chart

According to the weekly rise and fall chart of the Business News Agency, nickel prices have risen by 3% and fallen by 8% in the past 12 weeks, while nickel prices have declined in a weak manner recently.

Nickel industry chain

LME Nickel Inventory

On the macro level, US Treasury Secretary Yellen changed his tone and said that “we are prepared to take action to protect deposits when necessary.”. This aspect has boosted market confidence, with the three major US stock indexes closing slightly higher yesterday. Copper prices also showed a corresponding strengthening. The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points and suggested that the increase was nearing its end, in line with market expectations.

Supply: According to the latest data from the International Nickel Research Organization, although global nickel production in January decreased compared to the total in December, it still increased significantly by 22% compared to the same period last year. At the current rate, the annual production of nickel will exceed 3.2 million tons. This increase is mainly due to the continuous growth of Indonesia’s production, which has increased by more than 41% compared to the same period last year.

Demand: Due to the low nickel price, nickel sulfate production suffers from nickel electrowinning losses, and new production capacity scheduling is delayed, resulting in a slowdown in subsequent nickel electrowinning gains. The news of production cuts and shutdowns in stainless steel mills is frequent, and a large steel factory in North China has also released news of production cuts, leaving consumption light and unchanged.

In summary, the overall fundamentals of nickel are weak. On the macro level, the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hikes and attitude boots have fallen, the US index has fallen, and the macro pressure has eased slightly. Although nickel prices have stopped falling, they have been unable to rebound. It is expected that nickel prices will remain low and volatile in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to data monitoring by the Business News Agency, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market was in a weak downward trend this week, with an average price of 7176 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 6972 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a weekly decrease of 2.84% and a year-on-year decrease of 17.08%.

As of March 24, the mainstream prices of propylene in various regions in China are as follows:

Region February 24th

Shandong region 6900-7000 yuan/ton

Northeast China 6700-6800 yuan/ton

East China 7150-7250 yuan/ton

2、 Analytical Review

According to data monitoring by the Business News Agency, the propylene market in Shandong was weak and downward this week, with prices in northern regions falling below 7000 yuan/ton. During the week, both crude oil and propane prices fell to varying degrees, with significant cost side bearish constraints. At the same time, there was a strong wait-and-see atmosphere on the market, resulting in sluggish upstream shipments, inventory accumulation, and a continuous downward shift in the focus of market transactions. As of this Friday, the mainstream quotation in the Shandong propylene market was 6900-7000 yuan/ton.

This week, the overall weakness of the propylene industry chain, and the price of some products at the cost end fell to a low level, may cause a slight rebound in the future. The start-up of some downstream product units for propylene at the demand end is not high, and the procurement of propylene is weakened.

3、 Aftermarket Forecast

Propylene analysts from the Chemical Branch of the Business Society believe that the current propylene price has fallen to a low level, and some downstream devices have plans to restart, which may stimulate the propylene market. It is expected that a small rebound in propylene will be more likely in the short-term future.

This week (3.20~3.27), the acrylonitrile market declined slightly due to weakness. According to data monitoring by Business News Agency, as of March 27, the bulk water price in the acrylonitrile market was 10275 yuan/ton, down 0.96% from 10375 yuan/ton last Monday. Currently, the market price of acrylonitrile is between 10200 and 10300 yuan/ton from the tank. The price of raw materials fell, and the cost of acrylonitrile continued to decline; The pressure on the supply side is still there, and the demand side has a rigid need for support; Acrylonitrile market slightly weak.

This week (3.20~3.27), the domestic acrylonitrile operating rate was between 60% and 70%.

This week (3.20~3.27), the raw material propylene market fell, and the cost of acrylonitrile fell sharply. According to the monitoring of Business News Agency, as of March 27, the domestic propylene price was 6948 yuan/ton, down 3.18% from 7176 yuan/ton last Monday.

Downstream ABS prices fluctuated slightly, and the commencement of industrial devices is still around 85%, slightly increasing compared to the previous period. There is still a strong need for support for acrylonitrile; This week, the domestic construction of nitrile rubber was basically stable, with weak support for acrylonitrile. The price of polyacrylamide continues to decline, providing weak support for acrylonitrile.

Future Forecast: An acrylonitrile analyst from the Business Agency believes that the current supply and demand of acrylonitrile is slightly deadlocked, while the price of raw materials is causing a decline in cost. It is expected that the acrylonitrile market may continue to decline slightly in the future.

This week, the domestic adipic acid market continued to decline, slowing down. According to the monitoring of the Business News Agency, as of March 24, this week’s decline was 0.99%, and the market trading center further moved downward. Currently, the market quotation range for adipic acid is between 9800-10000 yuan/ton, which is around 100 yuan lower than the previous weekend. The main reasons are difficult to improve the cost side and prominent pressure on supply and demand.

Industrial chain

The above figure shows that this week, the performance of the adipic acid industry chain was weak, with the upstream pure benzene rebounding slightly, but with little strength. Cyclohexanone fell, and the overall cost side was empty. Downstream demand is weak, and the price of PA66 is weak and downward.

Supply side: slightly increase in operating rate and maintain loose supply

Market supply: In terms of devices, the overall operating rate of adipic acid increased slightly this week, with the operating rate rising to 70% this week. The main concern is that after the restart of Huafeng device, the supply will steadily increase, and most manufacturers will start to operate at full load. Manufacturers have a trend of accumulating inventory, and the overall supply performance of the market is abundant.

Demand side: Downstream demand remains weak

Adipic acid downstream performance was weak. Terminal procurement is in urgent need of support, on-site buying is light, and early inventory is mainly digested. Downstream factories are cautious in picking up goods, and sporadic orders are needed to ensure normal startup demand. Taking PA66 as an example, according to the monitoring by the Business News Agency, PA66 fell 0.81% this week, hovering at the bottom of the market. At the weekend, the market price of PA66 in Zhejiang is in the range of 20000-21000 yuan/ton. In addition, other sectors also performed poorly, with caprolactam continuing to decline, TPU market declining, and weak demand also constraining the improvement of adipic acid prices.

Cost side: limited increase in pure benzene, falling price of cyclohexanone

This week, negative sentiment in peripheral markets turned weaker, financial risk concerns temporarily eased, and crude oil rebounded. However, the entire domestic chemical market still exhibits uneven hot and cold performance. Pure benzene rebounded slightly with crude oil, rising by 0.35% per week, but the price of cyclohexanone and cyclohexanone fell by 0.18%. From a cost perspective, it is difficult for upstream raw material prices to effectively boost adipic acid formation.

Future prospects

The business community believes that on the cost side, it is difficult to completely eliminate external risks. The probability of recent fluctuations in crude oil is high, and the impact rate on the domestic chemical market will probably remain weak. Pure benzene and cyclohexanone are difficult to emerge from the trend. Overall, there is no good guidance on the supply side. In addition, the supply and demand sides also maintain a weak pattern, with a high operating rate, expected increase in supply pressure, and slow progress on the demand side. Taking into account, the price of adipic acid will hover at a low level, and the downward space will narrow.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the Business News Agency, the price of caustic soda decreased, with the average market price in Shandong at the beginning of the week being 858 yuan/ton, and the average market price in Shandong at the end of the week being 804 yuan/ton, with a price decrease of 6.29% and a price decrease of 20.24% compared to the same period last year. The caustic soda commodity index on March 16 was 116.83, down 1.73 points from yesterday, down 55.99% from the cycle’s highest point of 265.47 points (2021-10-27), and up 79.43% from the lowest point of 65.11 points on October 09, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

According to survey data from Business News Agency, domestic caustic soda prices fell this week. The current average market price in Shandong is around 760-830 yuan/ton. The ex-factory quotation for 32% of the mainstream liquid caustic soda in Hebei is around 800-950 yuan/ton. The price of caustic soda in the site is weak. The overall supply of caustic soda is relatively sufficient, but in some regions, there has been a decline in caustic soda units, and the inventory of caustic soda will decline slightly in the future. Downstream demand is mainly based on on-demand procurement, and the atmosphere of on-site trading and investment is general, still with a cautious attitude.

According to the price monitoring of the Business Society, in the 10th week of 2023 (3.6-310), there were 0 commodities that rose, 2 commodities that fell, and 3 commodities that rose or fell to 0 in the price list of the chlor-alkali industry. The main commodities falling were caustic soda (- 4.02%) and PVC (- 0.35%). This week’s average rise and fall was -0.87%.

Analysts from the Business Agency believe that in the near future, the price of caustic soda has declined, and the downstream alumina procurement is average, resulting in a relatively light trading atmosphere. Some caustic soda units have reduced their load, and the inventory of caustic soda has decreased slightly. Downstream procurement is mainly based on demand, and the main comprehensive estimate is that the later stage of caustic soda consolidation and operation is mainly based on the downstream market demand.

This week, the spot tin market price (3.10-3.17) fluctuated in the market, and the overall downward trend. The average price in the domestic market was 187010 yuan/ton at the end of last week and 183910 yuan/ton at the end of this week, down 1.66% for the week.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices uses the concept of a price trend K-line to reflect weekly or monthly price changes in the form of a histogram. Investors can buy and sell investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates: rising; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K column indicates the range of fluctuation. From the above figure, it can be seen that after November 2022, due to macro factors, tin prices have generally been dominant, with prices beginning to decline since February.

In terms of the futures market, Lunxi experienced a wide range of fluctuations this week. During the current cycle, there were many negative and positive market macro factors, and the overall trend of the week was somewhat volatile. At the beginning of the week, the US dollar index fell, and the metal market fluctuated in a narrow range. In the middle and later stages of the week, the banking crisis and credit crisis fermented, and the metal market declined. Tin prices rebounded again over the weekend as expectations for US monetary policy eased.

From the perspective of supply and demand, recent changes in tin have been limited, and it still shows a weak pattern of supply and demand. In terms of supply, recent processing costs have been weak, but the smelter has been operating steadily, and the overall tin supply has not changed much compared to the previous period. In terms of demand, there is still no significant improvement, and market expectations are generally weak. The recent fluctuations in tin prices have mainly followed the macro trend, with inventory declining significantly this week. Low inventory has boosted tin prices significantly on Friday. In the future, the tin market remains weak and volatile, and it is necessary to focus on the actual downstream demand and the impact of inventory changes on market sentiment.

The base metal index stood at 1191 points on March 18, unchanged from yesterday, down 26.30% from its cycle high of 1616 points (2022-03-09), and up 85.51% from its low of 642 points on November 24, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 to now).

According to the price monitoring by the Business News Agency, in the 11th week of 2023 (3.13-3.17), there were five commodities in the non-ferrous sector that rose on a month-on-month basis. The top three commodities that rose were titanium concentrate (3.19%), silver (2.60%), and gold (1.84%). There are 17 commodities with a year-on-year decrease, and 5 commodities with a decrease of more than 5%, accounting for 21.7% of the monitored commodities in this sector; The top three products falling were praseodymium neodymium alloy (- 6.29%), neodymium oxide (- 6.20%), and praseodymium neodymium oxide (- 5.91%). This week’s average rise and fall was -1.69%.

According to the data monitored by the Business News Agency, as of March 20th, the average price quoted by domestic premium DMF enterprises was 5475 yuan/ton, which was stable compared to the same period last week. The overall market supply and demand were balanced, and the focus of negotiations was stable.

The DMF trend is stable and the focus of negotiations is stable. Currently, the mainstream price range is around 5400.00 yuan/ton. Currently, the operating rate is mainly stable, the supply side is normal, and downstream purchases are made on demand. There is no obvious desire to stock up, and the manufacturer gives up profits and takes orders.

Chemical index: On March 19th, the chemical index stood at 918 points, unchanged from yesterday, down 34.43% from the cycle’s highest point of 1400 points (2021-10-23), and up 53.51% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8th, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 to now).

DMF analysts from Business Agency believe that the DMF market will maintain stable operation in the short term.

According to the monitoring by the Business News Agency, the price of potassium sulfate content 50 at the beginning of this week was 3950 yuan/ton, and the price of potassium sulfate content 50 at the end of this week was 3950 yuan/ton, which was stable.

The domestic potassium sulfate market trend is temporarily stable, and the operating rate of the processing type Mannheim potassium sulfate unit remains at 45%, with no significant fluctuations for the time being. The continuous decline in the price of potassium chloride has a certain impact on the production costs of manufacturers. However, driven by the upside down of by-product hydrochloric acid and a slight increase in the price of sulfuric acid, the current sales price of potassium sulfate is basically near the cost line of manufacturers. Currently, the factory price of 52% processed Mannheim potassium sulfate powder is mostly 3900-4000 yuan/ton, and the price in some regions is still lower than the low-end quotation. The actual transaction is mainly negotiated through single negotiation.

The supply of potash fertilizer in the domestic market has continued to increase, with the supply of Laos’ white potassium in the port. The supply of China Europe Express is also increasing, with the arrival volume of nearly 100000 tons in half a month. Border trade is dominated by 62% white powder oversupply, which reflects a slight shortage of goods, but the overall supply is sufficient.

Prediction: The trend of potassium sulfate is relatively stable, and processing manufacturers are basically keeping at the cost edge. It is expected that the market price may be dominated by a weak consolidation trend.

According to the data monitoring of Business News Agency, as of March 10, 2023, the domestic market price of butanone was 8866 yuan/ton. Compared with March 5, 2023 (the reference price of butanone was 8733 yuan/ton), the price increased by 133 yuan/ton, or 1.53%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of the business agency that at the beginning of March, due to the loose support of the demand side, the domestic butanone market was generally weak. In this week (3.6-3.10), the domestic butanone market as a whole has seen a slight rise, and the power to support the upward focus of the butanone market is mainly from the support of supply and cost.

In terms of cost, the price of butanone raw materials is high and firm, and the support of butanone cost side is continuously strengthened. Therefore, the overall market of butanone is up slightly with the original.

In terms of supply, in the middle of this month, some butanone plants had shutdown and maintenance plans, and the overall operating rate of butanone was low. With the gradual digestion of the low price of butanone in stock, at present, the overall inventory of butanone in the field was low, and the tight supply side also supported the rise of butanone market.

Aftermarket analysis of butanone

At present, the downstream demand of butanone in the market is relatively calm, and the support given by the demand side is general. The butanone statistician of the business agency believes that in the short term, the domestic butanone market is mainly adjusted and operated in multiple intervals, and the market fluctuation is limited. The specific trend needs to pay more attention to the specific information changes on the supply and demand side.