Price Trend

According to data from business associations, the average listing price of oil-based ethylene glycol in North China on August 23 was 4633 yuan/ton, up 1.46% from the previous cycle, a slight increase.

This week, the spot price of ethylene glycol in East China fluctuated around 4525-4535 yuan/ton, up about 70 yuan/ton from last week’s price.

II. Analysis of Influencing Factors

The start-up rate of ethylene ethylene glycol plant in China is about 72.97%, and that of coal ethylene glycol is about 51.91%, which is the same as last week.

The inventory of ethylene glycol ports in East China is about 8112,000 tons, down from last week.

The start-up load of the polyester plant is about 87.77%, which is slightly higher than that of last week. The production and marketing of polyester is about 43%, which is not conducive to the digestion of ethylene glycol inventory.

3. Future Market Forecast

Ethylene glycol analysts believe that the start-up rate of the Ethylene glycol plant is stable, the port inventory is down, and the price of lido-ethylene glycol is low. However, due to the downstream polyester production and marketing downturn, although the start-up rate has increased, but the price support is not large. It is expected that ethylene glycol will maintain a small fluctuation in the short term.

Price Trend

The domestic toluene market overall closed up slightly this week, with a weekly increase of about 0.9%, according to the business associations’big list data. East China has a good market, rising by about 100 yuan/ton.

II. Analytical Review

1. Products: Influenced by the rise of crude oil upstream and the improvement of market turnover, the trend of toluene market has been steadily rising this week. At present, the mainstream price in East China is around 5650-5700 yuan/ton. According to the feedback from traders, this week’s volume and price have risen sharply. Compared with last week, the turnover has continued to improve. The port stock has dropped by about 10,000 tons, and is now about 34,000 tons.

2. Industrial chain:

Upstream, crude oil prices jumped sharply from last week. Oil prices rebounded slightly this week, with spot Brent up 2.36%, Brent futures up 2.04%, WTI futures up 0.99%, Dubai futures up 3.58%.

Downstream, TDI, prices continue to fall this week, trading is not strong, short-term TDI is expected to remain short trend. On the PX market, the price of external market fell slightly this week, while the domestic price of PX was stable. It is expected that the short-term price of PX market will maintain a stable trend.
3. Future Market Forecast

Xylene analysts from Business, Social and Chemical Branch believe that next week we will continue to focus on the progress of tariff increases in Sino-US trade negotiations, and the European and American economies are worried about the expected fluctuations in demand for crude oil in the recession prospects. Overall, the toluene market is expected to move smoothly next week.

Price Trend

According to the price monitoring of business associations, the distribution price of sulphuric acid in Shandong fell slightly this week.  The quotation fell from 217.50 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 215.00 yuan/ton at the end of the week, falling by 2.50 yuan/ton, or 1.15%, 51.69% compared with the same period last year. Overall, the sulfuric acid market fell this week, with the sulfuric acid commodity index of 33.46 on August 23.

II. Market Analysis

(1) Products:

This week, the prices of some sulphuric acid manufacturers in Shandong fell slightly, with fewer inventories and fewer downstream demand. The weekend quotation of Heze Jiangyuan is 180 yuan/ton, which is 10 yuan/ton lower than that at the beginning of the week; Zouping Tianlu’s quotation is 60 yuan/ton, which is temporarily stable; Jinan Yuanfei’s quotation is 450 yuan/ton, which is temporarily stable.

(2) Industrial chain:

Recently, the domestic sulfur market has been declining continuously with weak cost support; the downstream monoammonium market has a poor trading atmosphere, light turnover, unsatisfactory new orders, relatively stable diammonium market, strong quotation, sulfuric acid enterprises with multiple early orders, short-term inadequate start-up, and slightly tight supply. This week, domestic sulphuric acid plants run smoothly, market supply is relatively tight, downstream gas purchases are general, market turnover is limited.

3. Future Market Forecast

After the adjustment in July, the capital reflux of each factory is in good condition, the equipment has been repaired and the production capacity has increased. The price of sulphur in the upstream has gone down all the way, and the purchasing in the downstream is general. Under the contradiction between supply and demand, the products have gone down. Business sulfuric acid analysts believe that the short-term market in Shandong Province, under the influence of supply and demand and raw materials, the sulfuric acid market tends to decline.

Price Trend

According to the price monitoring of business associations, the domestic methanol market continued to rise this week and declined in an all-round way. At the beginning of the week, the average domestic methanol market price was 2122226 yuan/ton, which was 2147 yuan/ton at the end of the week. Within the week, the price fell by 2.34%, rising by 5.95% annually, and falling by 27.47% year-on-year.

II. Market Analysis

Products: Domestic methanol market fell this week in an all-round way. On the mainland, Shandong took the lead in lowering the consumption market. By Thursday, Shandong had dropped 240 yuan/ton to 1850 yuan/ton. Due to the rapid decline, the main producing areas were waiting and watching. There was no mainstream price this week, and some discussions reached 1550 yuan/ton. Port arrivals are still concentrated, inventory continues to increase, and the port market is weak and volatile, falling by 40-60 yuan/ton. As of Wednesday (8.21), the total inventory of ports in eastern and southern China was 1.2162 million tons, which maintained an increasing trend.

Industry Chain: Formaldehyde: This week, the formaldehyde market is up narrowly. The market of Shandong and Hebei is affected by the rising trend of methanol, and the market offer is raised. The offer of other regions is temporarily stable. The domestic formaldehyde market starts in different places, but the overall situation is at a low level. The downstream is also in a downturn, and the actual single transaction is relatively light.

Acetic acid: The domestic acetic acid market has increased significantly this week. Hualu Hengsheng, Tianjin Alkali Plant, Hebei Jiantao and Shaanxi Yanchang acetic acid plants were all accidentally affected to stop, and Huayi acetic acid plant in East China and Anhui was planned to stop. Henan Longyu acetic acid plant has not yet been clearly restored, resulting in a small amount of spot circulation in the market, some downstream contracts failed to supply as scheduled, and passive purchase. Spot-based. The supply of goods delivered near the end of the month is relatively concentrated, and the export volume of some foreign-funded enterprises doubled this month. All parties in the market overlap to promote the market transaction prices continue to rise. On the downstream side, due to the low stock of raw materials and the continuing shortage of spot, prices continue to rise. Some downstream manufacturers can hardly afford high-price acetic acid in mid-week or so, and the start-up of the plant is passively reduced.
Dimethyl ether: This week, the domestic dimethyl ether Market was flat, with prices rising first and then falling. Henan Xinlianxin Price began to implement a bottom-keeping policy after a short rise. As a major manufacturer, the bottom-keeping protects the market price from the side. After the settlement price is lowered, it continues to implement the bottom-keeping policy, while the surrounding enterprises lack the ability to resist pressure, and the price is lowered as a whole. In addition, the price of raw material methanol showed signs of loosening this week, giving enterprises in the margin of profit and loss a certain profit margin. In the area of civil gas, the price of Shandong Province was reduced to 3450-3500 yuan/ton, with an average production-sales ratio of 7-80%.  Many factors have no strong support for dimethyl ether, and there is still room for price reduction in the later period. Construction started 19.44% this week, down 0.65% and 3.24% from last week.

3. Future Market Forecast

On the positive side, methanol in the Mainland continued to decline this week, with local market prices falling to the production cost of methanol plants; new methanol-to-olefin plants were put into operation one after another, and MTO load of Phase II of Chengzhi in Nanjing was not high; Baofeng in Shandong, Luxi and Ningxia was also expected to start production. With the early maintenance of olefin plants, such as Ningbo Fude, Shenhua Yulin and so on, the olefin start-up has been restored.  On the negative side, China’s methanol industry started to maintain a high level, with imports expected to exceed 1 million tons in August. New domestic methanol plants are under construction in an orderly manner, including Yankuang Yulin 700,000 tons planned to start production in October; Inner Mongolia Rongxin expected to start production in September; Jingmen Yingde could produce products in late August. Near National Day, environmental protection supervision in North China has been strengthened, and formaldehyde trade unions in North China are expected to decline in September. With the concentrated release of bad news such as low futures, high port inventory and abundant terminal stocks in the mainland, methanol re-enters the downstream channel. In line with the suppressive news such as demand loss caused by environmental protection before National Day and sustained high import arrival in Hong Kong, methanol analysts of business associations predict that the methanol market will decline mainly, including: Hope to refresh this year’s new low again.

Price Trend

According to a large number of data monitored by business associations, the price of trichloromethane in Shandong rose sharply this week. At the beginning of the week, the average price of trichloromethane in Shandong was about 2550 yuan/ton, and at the end of the week, the average price was about 2700 yuan/ton, an overall increase of 5.88%.

II. Cause Analysis

Product Reasons: Affected by the weather this week, chloroform enterprises in Shandong started to decline, Dawang plant in Jinling, Shandong stopped, Dongying plant started normal production, chemical plant in Western Shandong started 60%, the market spot supply is tight, although the downstream refrigerant industry in the off-season demand is not good, the price of trichloromethane is still rising substantially. At present, the price of trichloromethane in Shandong is about 2700 yuan/ton; that in Jiangsu is about 4000 yuan/ton; and that in Liwen, Jiangxi is about 3300 yuan/ton. In terms of the start-up of the plant, the Jiangsu Liwen plant started to work normally; the Jiangxi Liwen plant was affected by the overhaul of the power station, and the enterprise operated negatively in early August for half a month.

Industry chain: In the upstream, the domestic methanol market runs steadily in a week, and the regional difference of inventory is great. At the beginning of the week, the average price of methanol market is 2182 yuan/ton, the average price of methanol at the weekend is 2224 yuan/ton, up 1.92%, and the price is 25.59% lower than that of the same period last year. In the liquid chlorine market, some enterprises affected by typhoon resume production and the market supply is normal. The downstream market just needs to be stable. At present, the enterprises are overreporting 200-400 yuan/ton. On the downstream side, the domestic R22 refrigerant market has passed its peak season recently. The market is abundant and the downstream demand is not good. The price continues to weaken. Now the company offers 15000-15500 yuan per ton for bulk water.

Industry: According to the price monitoring of business associations, on August 15, 2019, there were 20 kinds of commodities rising annually in the chemical sector, the first three of which were dichloromethane (3.08%), trichloromethane (1.92%) and aniline (1.79%). There are 6 kinds of products with ring-to-ring ratio declining. The products with the first three declining ranges are polymeric MDI (-1.86%), TDI (-1.20%) and liquid ammonia (-1.03%).

3. Future Market Forecast

Business community methane chloride data analysts believe that the current trichloromethane market is underdeveloped, the overall spot supply is tight, and the downstream refrigerant market has passed the peak season, which is not conducive to the price of chloroform. It is expected that the market of trichloromethane will be shaken and adjusted in the short term, and the future market will pay attention to the start-up of enterprises.

Price Trend

According to the data from the business associations’list, the price trend of domestic TDI market continued to decline this week. At the beginning of the week, the average market price in East China was about 14 066.67 yuan/ton. At the end of the week, the average market price in East China was about 13 733.37 yuan/ton, with a drop of 2.37% in the week, 54.68% compared with the same period last year.

II. Market Analysis

Products: This week, the TDI market in East China is weak, the price trend is down, the atmosphere is light, the mindset of the operators is empty, the offer is down, and some low prices are heard. As of the 16th, China’s domestic goods with tickets out of the warehouse offer reference 13000-13100 yuan/ton, Shanghai goods with tickets out of the warehouse offer reference 13200-13300 yuan/ton, a single talk, the actual negotiations.

Industry chain: The price trend of nitric acid in the upstream is stable, and the market price remains stable at about 1693.33 yuan/ton in a week. The mainstream quotation of nitric acid in Jiangsu is 1680 yuan/ton, which is temporarily stable, and the demand of nitric acid market is still acceptable. The quotation of the manufacturer is basically stable, and the quotation of individual manufacturer is somewhat loose. The nitric acid shipment situation is general. This week, toluene market prices rose slightly. At present, the mainstream price in East China is around 5,500 yuan/ton, which is 0.53% higher than 5,471 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week. According to the feedback from traders, the turnover has improved slightly this week. At present, the mainstream price in East China is around 5500-5550 yuan/ton. Compared with last week, port stocks have declined slightly. At present, they are about 44,000 tons.

Industry: On the 16th, the domestic TDI market continued to decline, Cangcheng Chemical Plant’s guidance price was lowered, inquiry delivery on the site was still sluggish, a small number of orders followed up, the mindset of the industry was empty, and the offer continued to fall out.

3. Future Market Forecast

According to the data analyst of business associations, the domestic TDI market is weak, the overall atmosphere of the market is low, the follow-up of transactions is scarce, and some low-price offers have been heard, the market is stable and small. It is expected that the TDI market will be disadvantaged in the later period.

According to statistics, the domestic hydrofluoric acid price trend this week maintained a low concussion, the price at the end of the weekend was 11,430 yuan/ton, which was stable compared with the price at the beginning of the week, up 6.24% year on year.

Products: This week, the price of hydrofluoric acid fluctuated at a low level. In the near future, the market situation of manufacturers has not improved significantly. The starting rate of downstream refrigerant industry remains at a low level. The market demand for domestic hydrofluoric acid is limited. In addition, domestic hydrofluoric acid plants maintain a high starting rate. Domestic spot supply is sufficient, and some manufacturers are downgraded. As of the end of the weekend, the mainstream of hydrofluoric acid negotiations in the southern region is 10500-11500 yuan/ton, and the price of hydrofluoric acid in the northern market is 11000-11500 yuan/ton. Recently, the domestic market price of hydrofluoric acid has been slightly lower, the demand of refrigerant industry downstream is poor, the supply of hydrofluoric acid manufacturers is not good, and the market price trend is declining. By the end of the weekend, the mainstream of domestic negotiations on hydrofluoric acid in Fujian was about 10 500-11 000 yuan/ton, the price of hydrofluoric acid in Shandong was 10 500-11 500 yuan/ton, the price of hydrofluoric acid in Jiangxi was 11 000-11 500 yuan/ton, the price of hydrofluoric acid in Inner Mongolia was 10 500-11 000 yuan/ton, and the price trend of hydrofluoric acid market continued to be low.

Industry chain: The price of fluorite in the upstream of hydrofluoric acid fell slightly this week. The factory price of fluorite was 3093.75 yuan/ton by the end of the week. The fluorite price dropped 0.40% this week. The domestic fluorite supply is normal, but the price of fluorite has a downward trend. The downstream cost price has a negative impact on the hydrofluoric acid market. Recent downstream refrigerant market trading market is general, domestic refrigerant R22 market shocks down, from the market supply point of view, the production enterprise device is stable, but the pressure of goods is too high, inventory expansion appears to a certain extent, the enterprise aims to make profits to deliver goods. The downstream weakness continues, the peak season of refrigerants has passed, and demand has only decreased but not increased. The price of domestic large enterprises has maintained the level of 17,000-18,000 yuan/ton. Domestic market price trend of R134a shocks, production enterprises equipment start-up rate remains low, refrigerant market demand is general, manufacturers mainly export. However, the price of on-site transactions does not change much. Businessmen purchase on demand. At the end of the peak season, the downstream demand of terminals decreases but does not increase. The downstream demand is not good, and the price trend of hydrofluoric acid market is low. However, the on-site transaction price does not change much. Businessmen purchase on demand. Recently, due to the normal supply of goods and poor downstream demand, the market price trend of hydrofluoric acid remains low. Aluminum fluoride price trend of downstream products is temporarily stable in the near future, which is 10333.33 yuan per ton at the weekend. The price trend is temporarily stable. The price trend of hydrofluoric acid market is constantly changing due to the poor market in the near future.

Industry: This week, the spot supply of raw materials fluorite and hydrofluoric acid in the upstream market is normal, and the trading market of refrigerant industry in the downstream market is poor. The price trend of hydrofluoric acid market remains low.

Recent domestic refrigerant plant start-up rate has maintained a low level, the market demand for hydrofluoric acid has decreased, the spot supply of hydrofluoric acid is normal, and the raw material market price has a downward trend. Chen Ling, an analyst of hydrofluoric acid business association, believes that the market price of hydrofluoric acid will be slightly lower next week, and the price of hydrofluoric acid will be around 11,000 yuan/ton.

Price Trend

According to data from business associations, the average price of oil-based ethylene glycol in North China on August 9 was 4500 yuan/ton, down 0.74% from the previous cycle, a slight decrease.

This week, the price of ethylene glycol in East China was negotiated from 4370 to 4380 yuan/ton, while the price in South China maintained around 4200 yuan/ton, with a slight increase.

II. Analysis of Influencing Factors

The start-up rate of ethylene-based ethylene glycol plant in China is about 73.63%, which is higher than that of the previous period. The start-up rate of coal-based ethylene glycol plant is about 51.57%, which is the same as the previous period.

The inventory of ethylene glycol ports in East China is about 972,000 tons, which continues to rise.

The starting load of the polyester plant is about 85.44%, and the ring ratio increases slightly.

3. Future Market Forecast

Ethylene glycol analysts of business associations believe that the recovery of plant start-up rate and a slight increase in port inventory are not conducive to the rise of Ethylene glycol prices, but the downstream polyester end production and sales become better, and the increase of start-up rate forms a certain support for prices. Ethylene glycol maintains a small shock adjustment in the short term. In the long run, the market is not prosperous enough, and it is expected that ethylene glycol will remain weak for a long time.

Commodity Index: On August 9, the Polyaluminium Chloride Commodity Index was 104.50, unchanged from yesterday, down 3.34% from the peak of 108.11 points in the cycle (2019-04-24), and up 3.57% from the low of 100.90 points on April 09, 2019. (Note: Period refers to 2019-04-01 to date)

Price quotation: On August 1, the mainstream price of domestic polyaluminium chloride market was 1933.33 yuan/ton, and on August 9, the market price of this product was stable at 1933.33 yuan/ton.  According to the monitoring data of the commercial association (100ppi.com), the current domestic market quotation range of polyaluminium chloride is 1700-1900 yuan/ton for solid polyaluminium chloride (industrial grade, content (>28%) and 330-410 yuan/ton for liquid (industrial grade, content 10-12%).

Industry chain: In recent upstream raw materials of polyaluminium chloride, the price of hydrochloric acid fell this week. Business Association monitoring data showed that the mainstream price of hydrochloric acid market was 123.33 yuan/ton on the 4th day, 110 yuan/ton on the 9th day, down by about 13.33 yuan/ton. Downstream demand has remained unchanged.

Industry: Recently, the water purification and environmental protection enterprises of Yongan Road Street Office in Gongyi City, Henan Province received the “stop-production notice”. The notice requests: According to the analysis of environmental pollution situation and future polluted weather situation in the whole city, the city attack and fortification office requests all deep treatment enterprises to stop production and control before acceptance, and dispatch or acceptance according to fortification. It can be returned to production. Gongyi City, Henan Province, issued a circular on the deep management of enterprise shutdown (see below):

Future forecast: In the near future, the downstream demand of polyaluminium chloride is stable, the price of hydrochloric acid in the upstream is down, and the quotation of polyaluminium chloride manufacturer does not change much. Investigation shows that the shortage of polyaluminium chloride output of the manufacturer who was asked to stop production according to the notice of environmental protection control in the earlier period is not so serious, and the product will not increase frequently and extensively. We should pay close attention to the impact of environmental shutdown requirements on the market.

Price data

Domestic 93 # Gasoline Distribution Average Price Trend Chart

Average Distribution Price Trend Chart of 0# Diesel Oil in China

According to the price monitoring of business associations, gasoline and diesel prices fell this week, domestic gasoline prices were 6534 yuan/ton, 0.16% lower than last week’s gasoline prices; domestic diesel prices were 6414 yuan/ton, down 1.96% from last week’s diesel prices.

II. Analysis of Influencing Factors

Products: At 24:00 on August 6, the price of refined oil was lowered. This week, the international oil price showed a sharp decline trend. A new round of negative price adjustment of refined oil started. As of August 8, the latest crude oil change rate monitored by business associations was – 2.04%. The purchase intention of refined oil market was relatively low.

Industry Chain: On international crude oil, Trump once again overturned his previous commitment to impose a 10% tariff on 300 billion Chinese exports in September, and the EIA crude oil inventory report was skewed to suppress crude oil prices. The price of WTI crude oil once approached the $50/barrel threshold. On August 9, the price of WTI crude oil was $52.54/barrel, with a weekly decline of 5.61%.

Market: This week’s sharp decline in international oil prices has depressed the refined oil market. For gasoline, refinery stocks are running at low levels, and the prices of alkylated oil and MTBE and other accessories are basically stable, which supports the price of gasoline, so the weekly decline of gasoline is only 0.16%. On the diesel side, this week’s persistent high temperature and rainy weather and typhoon warning have also brought pressure on terminal demand for refined oil, so the price of diesel oil market follows the pace of crude oil decline. On the supply side, according to statistics, the operating rate of main refineries is about 79% recently, which is about 2% higher than that of last week. The operating rate of atmospheric and vacuum distillation in Shandong Province is about 63%, which is about 3% higher than that of last week. Increased supply is also one aspect of suppressing the market price of refined oil.

3. Future Market Forecast

Lu Xingjun, an analyst of refined oil products from business associations, believes that the possibility of a substantial recovery in international oil prices next week is low, and it is expected that low volatility will run. The gasoline and diesel market is still confident in the “gold, silver and ten” peak demand season, and supports the price of refined oil. It is expected that the price of refined oil market will stabilize and improve next week.