In January, the domestic MIBK market continued to operate in a downturn, and the overall situation was continuous downward. The market reference offer in East China was around 12600-13000 yuan / ton. According to the monitoring data of business society, the market offer in East China was 12600-12800 yuan / ton and that in South China was 12800-13000 yuan / ton on January 27. The market trading was cold in January, the market negotiation atmosphere was light, and the mainstream market was weak to adjust, The actual order can be discussed.

On the raw material side, the acetone market was stable and upward, with frequent ups and downs in January as a whole, but it showed an upward trend in the whole month. The domestic East China market was quoted at 5400 yuan / ton on January 1 and 5600 yuan / ton on January 27, up 3.7% in the month. So far, the negotiation price in East China is 5600 yuan / ton, that in Shandong and Yanshan surrounding areas is 5750 yuan / ton, and that in South China is 5700 yuan / ton.

The downstream rubber additives market is flat, the market is up, but the transaction surface is not enough, and the accelerator will not fall as a whole. However, at present, the inventory of downstream tire enterprises is high, the operating rate of the industry has declined, and the demand side has been dragged down.

From the perspective of business community, MIBK market operates stably in the short term before and after the Spring Festival, supported by the raw material end. With the approaching of the long holiday and the recent impact of the epidemic, the logistics and transportation are limited, and the mentality of traders is flat. At the end of the month, MIBK market mainly maintains the overall consolidation and operation.

Recent price trend of calcium carbide

As can be seen from the above figure, the factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China fell slightly this week. This week, the average ex factory price of mainstream calcium carbide manufacturers in Northwest China fell from 4566.67 yuan / ton last weekend to 4400.00 yuan / ton this weekend, down 166.67 yuan / ton, down 3.65%, up 38.22% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. Overall, the calcium carbide market fell slightly this week, and there is still a downward trend over the weekend. On January 23, the calcium carbide commodity index was 115.28, unchanged from yesterday, down 45.68% from the highest point of 212.23 in the cycle (2021-10-26), and up 107.75% from the lowest point of 55.49 on March 14, 2016. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

The upstream cost support is good, and the downstream demand has declined

Judging from the manufacturer’s quotation, the factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China fell this week: oviganone quoted 4500 yuan / ton of calcium carbide this weekend, which fell by 100 yuan / ton compared with last weekend; Inner Mongolia Zhonglian calcium carbide quoted 4350 yuan / ton this weekend, down 200 yuan / ton compared with last weekend; Ningxia Xingping calcium carbide quotation this weekend was 4350 yuan / ton, down 200 yuan / ton compared with last weekend.

From the upstream raw material market, the ex factory quotation of Lantan rose slightly this week. The quotation of Shenmu small materials this weekend is 1750 yuan / ton, which is 80 yuan / ton higher than that last weekend; The quotation of CMCC this weekend is 1800 yuan / ton, which has increased by 80 yuan / ton compared with last weekend; The quotation of bulk materials this weekend is 1800 yuan / ton, which has increased by 50 yuan / ton compared with last weekend. The price of upstream raw materials rose slightly and the cost support increased, which had a positive impact on the price of calcium carbide.

From the downstream market, the ex factory price of PVC rose slightly this week. This week, the price of PVC increased from 8300.00 yuan / ton last weekend to 8460.00 yuan / ton this weekend, an increase of 1.93%, a year-on-year increase of 19.15%. PVC prices rose slightly this week, mainly sorting out. Downstream customers have general enthusiasm for calcium carbide procurement, and the downstream PVC market has a negative impact on calcium carbide prices.

The rising power of downstream products was insufficient, and calcium carbide fell slightly in the aftermarket

In late January, the calcium carbide market may fluctuate slightly and fall mainly. The price of raw material blue carbon rose slightly, the cost support of calcium carbide was good, and the downstream PVC market rose slightly, but the increase was not large. The market was difficult to improve due to consolidation, and the downstream demand was weakened. In the future, it is predicted that the price of calcium carbide in Northwest China may fluctuate slightly in late January.

According to the data monitored by the business society, as of January 25, the average price of domestic rubber grade excellent white carbon black was 6875.00 yuan / ton. This week, the white carbon black market was mainly stable, and the price of white carbon black was stable and strong. At present, the market supply is normal, the downstream just needs to purchase, and the transaction atmosphere is general.

This week, the mainstream price of white carbon black is about 6750 yuan / ton, and the price is mainly stable. Compared with the same period last week, the price has not changed significantly. The overall market is in balance between supply and demand, mainly for just needed procurement, mainly for contract customers. The negotiation atmosphere is flat, and the white carbon black market is stable, medium and strong.

The upstream hydrochloric acid market is temporarily stable, the upstream cost support is weakened, the maintenance of hydrochloric acid enterprises is increased, the supply is reduced, the downstream demand is weakened, the downstream procurement enthusiasm is general, and the overall market is weak.

Business agency white carbon black analysts believe that: in the short term, white carbon black will mainly operate smoothly, and the fluctuation range is limited. (to know more about the industry chain market trends, welcome to pay attention to the official account of the business community, obtain commodity information, and grasp the commodity price).

In 2021, the dichloromethane market rose slowly in the early stage and fluctuated sharply in the later stage. According to the monitoring of business agency, the outbound price of dichloromethane bulk water in Shandong was 3500 yuan / ton at the beginning of the year and 5972 yuan / ton at the end of the year, an increase of 70.64% over the beginning of the year; The low point of the year was 2720 yuan / ton on February 2, and the high point of the year was 8587 yuan / ton on October 16, with an amplitude of 215.72%.

The dichloromethane market fell slightly in January. Near the Spring Festival, the downstream construction started lower, the demand was weak, and the enterprises had a strong willingness to go to the warehouse. Under the supply-demand game, the market price fell.

After the Spring Festival from February to March, the start-up of downstream refrigerants, medicine, diluents and adhesives gradually increased, and the demand was driven strongly; In addition, some enterprises stop and reduce the load before and after the Spring Festival, and the supply side is tight; The price of raw methanol rose and the cost side formed support. The price of dichloromethane rose from 2720 yuan / ton in early January to 3930 yuan / ton on March 20, an increase of 44.49%.

From April to August, Guangxi Jinyi, Fuqiang and other methane chloride units were put into operation successively, and the pressure on the supply side increased to suppress the rising trend of dichloromethane; However, on the one hand, the downstream just needs support, coupled with the gradual rise of raw material prices, which brings upward pressure to the dichloromethane market; Dichloromethane rose in the market shock under comprehensive factors. According to the monitoring of business agency, the price of dichloromethane was 3930 yuan / ton on March 20 and 4055 yuan / ton on September 10, an increase of 3.18%; During the period, the high point was 4263 yuan / ton on May 17 and the low point was 3460 yuan / ton on April 22, up 23.22%.

The domestic policy of “dual control of energy consumption” was launched in September and the global energy crisis began in October. In the early stage, the domestic enterprises concentrated on reducing the burden of methane chloride units in the early stage, the industrial operating rate was as low as 4-50%, and the market supply was tight; Later, it encountered market speculation caused by the accidental parking of an enterprise, and the price of dichloromethane formed a “double peak” form in the second half of the year in September and October. After October, with the increase of the start-up of domestic methane chloride units, the price of dichloromethane gradually fell, but the overall supply is still tight, driving the price of dichloromethane to fluctuate at the high level in November and December.

In 2021, the domestic methane chloride plant will be started.

According to the business agency, the start-up of domestic methane chloride units in 2021 was slightly lower at the beginning of the year, higher in the middle of the year, reached the low point of the year in September and October, and rebounded at the end of the year. It is reflected from the side that the supply side of dichloromethane is under great pressure from the end of the first quarter to the beginning of the third quarter. The supply is tight in September and October, and the cost side affects the pattern of low before high in the market price of dichloromethane.

In 2021, affected by the cost side, the price of methanol rose and fell back. According to the monitoring of the business community, the price of methanol at the beginning of the year was 2310 yuan / ton, and the price at the end of the year was 2375 yuan / ton, an increase of 2.81% over the beginning of the year; During the year, the low point was 2240 yuan / ton and the high point was 4480 yuan / ton, with an amplitude of 100%. The cost side has strong support for dichloromethane in the early stage and weak at the end of the year.

Future forecast: Analysts of methane chloride data of business society believe that on the basis of the significant easing of the shortage of power coal, there is little probability that the raw material methanol will rise sharply again in 2022, and the driving force of cost side will become weaker; No new unit will be put into operation in 2022. It is expected that the market of dichloromethane in the later stage will be mainly affected by downstream demand and unit maintenance. It is expected that the price of dichloromethane will fluctuate in 2022.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, as of January 21, the average quotation price of domestic premium DMF enterprises was 16700.00 yuan / ton. The DMF price fluctuated upward this week, up 3.09% compared with the same period last week. In the short term, the DMF trend is stable, medium and strong.

This week, the DMF market is rising in a narrow range, the price is the main player, and the focus of negotiation is high. Compared with the same period last week, the price increases by 3.09%. At present, the manufacturer has positive shipments, general inventory, stable operating rate, no pressure on inventory, and the downstream just needs to purchase.

Upstream methanol is mainly stable. The market price of methanol in central Shandong is reported to be 2580-2600 yuan / ton and sent to cash exchange. The local methanol factory in central Shandong is reported to be 2700 yuan / ton and the factory provides cash exchange. The transaction is relatively general and wait-and-see for the time being.

On January 20, the chemical index was 1123 points, up 2 points from yesterday, down 19.79% from the highest point of 1400 points in the cycle (2021-10-23), and up 87.79% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8, 2020. (Note: the period refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to now)

DMF analysts of business agency believe that the trend of DMF is stable and strong in the short term. (to know more about the latest industry market trends, welcome to pay attention to the official account of the business community, obtain commodity information, and grasp the price of commodities).

Last week (1.10-14), the market of liquid ammonia was stable, mainly in Shandong and Hebei, and the price rose in East and North China due to the decline of ammonia. According to the monitoring of business society, as of January 14, the weekly increase of liquid ammonia in Shandong was 0.38%. At present, the mainstream price of liquid ammonia in Shandong is 4000-4300 yuan / ton.

On the supply side, last week, the operating rate of liquid ammonia remained stable, the ammonia volume in the main production areas of Shandong, Hebei and two lakes changed little, and the price of liquid ammonia was stable. The ammonia release in North China, Northwest China and central China decreased, and the price mainly rebounded. The amount of ammonia released in southwest and Inner Mongolia increased slightly, and the price was weak and stable.

On the cost side, at present, the price of liquid ammonia is still supported by the cost side, and the coal stopped falling and rebounded after the festival. Last week (1.10-14) rebounded strongly. According to the monitoring of business society, the weekly rebound of thermal coal exceeded 10%. Near the end of the year, due to the impact of safety inspection, the supply of thermal coal has been tightened, but the supply guarantee policy continues. On the whole, the supply is still relatively loose, the sales situation of origin has improved, and the coal price has increased after the reduction; In terms of ports, after new year’s day, downstream inquiry increased, market activity increased, and traders’ market sentiment improved. The rise of coal prices led to the follow-up of methanol and urea in the downstream, and liquid ammonia followed up slightly.

From the demand side, urea and compound fertilizer continue to improve. Urea rose 2.7% in the week. Affected by the epidemic, the transportation of urea in some areas is blocked and the local supply is tight. There was centralized goods preparation in the downstream before the superposition Festival, and the demand was enlarged. Among them, industrial demand is mainly just demand, and agricultural demand has improved slightly. Winter wheat Topdressing and fertilizer winter storage accelerated in some areas, and dealers followed up bargain hunting. Terminal compound fertilizer also has support, with increased enthusiasm for goods preparation and increased market volume.

From the above figure, the price comparison chart of urea and liquid ammonia shows that the trend of liquid ammonia and urea is basically the same. At present, there are signs of further widening the price difference between urea and liquid ammonia, indicating that the market of liquid ammonia is still weaker than that of urea.

From the above figure, the liquid ammonia industry chain diagram shows that at present, the liquid ammonia industry chain has improved slightly, the price of natural gas in the upstream of the gas head is weak, and the price decline is obvious. However, the performance of coal head is relatively strong, especially at present, the downstream support is obvious. The figure shows that many downstream products have increased in varying degrees.

Future forecast: the business society believes that in the short term, the supply and demand of liquid ammonia is stable and partially tight, and the cost side may continue to support the ammonia price. It is expected that the rigidity of liquid ammonia is strong in the near future, but the preparation before the festival is over, and the festive atmosphere is getting thicker or involving the ammonia price.

In 2021, the average price of 1# lead ingot in East China was 14862.5 yuan / ton at the beginning of the year and 15256.25 yuan / ton at the end of the year, with an annual increase of 2.65%.

In 2021, affected by overseas economic recovery, carbon neutralization and other policies, most metal markets continued their upward trend for 20 years, especially copper and aluminum reached new highs for many years. However, the impact of macro policies on lead in the past 21 years was limited, mainly affected by supply and demand and other fundamentals. Restricted by inventory, the increase during the year was limited. The core fluctuation range in 21 years is still 14300-16000 yuan / ton. During the year, three highs were set, respectively in early March, late July and mid October. The highest point of the year was 15483 yuan / ton on July 20, and the lowest point of the year was 14325 yuan / ton on September 22. The maximum amplitude of the year was 7.48% and the total annual increase was 2.65%. From the price curve of 21 years, the lead ingot showed wide shock in the first half of 21 years, and hit the bottom and rebounded in the second half of 21 years.

On December 31, the lead commodity index was 93.15, up 0.07 points from yesterday, down 30.49% from 134.01 points (November 29, 2016), and up 24.82% from 74.63 points, the lowest point on March 19, 2015. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now).

The commodity price K-bar chart uses the concept of K-line of price trend to reflect the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of bar chart. Investors can buy, sell and invest according to the changes of K-bar chart. Red means: rising; Green means: falling; The height of K column indicates the range of rise and fall.

Looking at the monthly K-bar chart of the lead market in 2021, the lead ingot Market rose and fell in half in 2021, rising for 6 months and declining for 6 months. The largest increase occurred in October, with a single month increase of 8.51%; The biggest decline was in August, with a monthly decline of 3.82%.

At the beginning of 21 years, the lead ingot Market has continued the tight supply of raw materials for 20 years. The lead ingot Market has been restricted by lead concentrate and waste batteries at the supply end all year, and the overall supply is tight. However, the downstream situation in the same period is not optimistic. The continuous accumulation of lead ingots has led to difficulties in following up. Since January, the sales of downstream battery enterprises have increased, the accumulation of lead ingots has been suspended, the downstream demand has improved, the negotiations in the spot lead market have increased, and the market price trend is good. However, in the later stage, due to the impact of public health events in Hebei, the transportation was limited. Many refineries in Hebei Province entered the maintenance in advance, the overall operating rate declined, the demand for raw materials began to weaken, and the market price gradually entered the downward cycle. Since mid January, with the gradual recovery of transportation and the approaching Spring Festival holiday, downstream manufacturers have a certain demand for goods, and the spot lead price began to fluctuate and rise. However, towards the end of the month, downstream manufacturers successively entered the maintenance or shutdown, and the manufacturers that did not shut down also announced the shutdown time. Their willingness to prepare raw materials declined. They mainly purchased a small amount, and most of them were long-term cooperative customers. Only Henan and other areas that do not stop work during holidays have a slightly better transaction. In this environment, the price of lead in the first half of 2021 will fluctuate, and the market began to look forward to the coming traditional peak season to break the current market deadlock.

The reason why the lead light peak season is so obvious is mainly due to the influence of downstream battery sales, and the application of batteries is mainly in cars and some battery cars. The consumer demand for travel in summer has been obvious in China, and summer is the main season to replace batteries. However, this year’s summer continued to be sluggish in the peak season, and even the price fell in the peak season, mainly due to the dual impact of the shortage of chips in the automotive industry and the surge in sales of new energy vehicles this year.

From the comparison chart of lead ingot price trend from July to November 2016-2021, it can be seen intuitively that the overall trend of the traditional peak season in 21 years is still different from that in previous years. Generally speaking, it is not prosperous in the peak season, or even the price in the peak season declines. The market ushered in an upward trend only after October. The influencing factor of this trend is not that the downstream demand is good, but that on the supply side. From September to mid October, the main domestic primary lead smelting enterprises ushered in centralized maintenance. With the continuous loss of recycled lead enterprises after the early lead price fell, and the supply contraction caused by factors such as power and production restriction, the domestic social inventory continued to fall from the high level, It led to the only wave of obvious market in the year. After reaching the bottom, it rebounded and the lead price rose rapidly.

In 2021, the trend of most metal commodities is closely related to inventory, and lead is no exception. In terms of the basic factors of the current market, we expect that the supply of lead ingots in the short term will be jointly affected by the production restriction of the Winter Olympic Games and transportation. In the short term, the supply recovery speed is slow and the inventory growth is slow. During the Spring Festival, most of the downstream manufacturers will stop production and have holidays according to the practice over the years, so the consumption will decline to a certain extent. Under the state of weak balance between supply and demand, it is expected that the lead price will still maintain the trend of shock consolidation. In the long run, the lead supply will probably maintain the situation of oversupply in 2022, and the application of new energy vehicles will mainly be lithium batteries. In the long run, the lead price will have some resistance to rise.

Relevant data:

China is relatively rich in lead mineral resources and has a large annual output. However, because overseas lead mines have certain price advantages, a large number of lead mines must be imported from abroad every year. According to the data of the Bureau of statistics, from January to November 2021, China imported about 1127000 tons of lead concentrate, a year-on-year decrease of 9.36%. The top three import source countries of China’s lead concentrate are the United States, Russia and Peru.

Since 15 years ago, the output of recycled lead has started to increase rapidly. By the end of 21, China’s processing capacity of recycled lead raw materials had reached about 13 million tons, an increase of 150% over 2017. The production data of the whole year of 21 has not been released, but from the production data of the previous November, there is no doubt that the output of recycled lead will reach a new high in 2021.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, as of January 18, the average price of domestic rubber grade excellent white carbon black was 6875.00 yuan / ton. This week, the white carbon black market was mainly stable, and the price of white carbon black was stable and strong. At present, the market supply is normal, the downstream just needs to purchase, and the transaction atmosphere is general.

The mainstream price of white carbon black this week is about 6750 yuan / ton. The price is mainly stable. Compared with the same period last week, there is no significant change in the price. The overall market is in balance between supply and demand. It is mainly for contract customers. The negotiation atmosphere is flat, and the white carbon black market is stable and strong.

The upstream hydrochloric acid market is temporarily stable, the upstream cost support is weakened, the maintenance of hydrochloric acid enterprises is increased, the supply is reduced, the downstream demand is weakened, the downstream procurement enthusiasm is general, and the overall market is weak.

On January 17, the chemical index was 1117 points, up 10 points from yesterday, down 20.21% from the highest point of 1400 points in the cycle (2021-10-23), and up 86.79% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8, 2020. (Note: the period refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to now)

Business agency white carbon black analysts believe that: in the short term, white carbon black will mainly run smoothly with limited fluctuation range. (to know more about the industry chain market trends, welcome to pay attention to the official account of the business community, obtain commodity information, and grasp the commodity price).

Recent price trend of hydrochloric acid

As can be seen from the above figure, the price of domestic hydrochloric acid was temporarily stable this week, with the quotation of 324.00 yuan / ton, a year-on-year increase of 77.53% compared with the same period last year. Overall, the domestic hydrochloric acid market was temporarily stable this week. On January 16, the commodity index of hydrochloric acid was 85.26, the same as yesterday, down 38.17% from the highest point of 137.89 in the cycle (2021-10-26), and up 374.19% from the lowest point of 17.98 on September 5, 2012. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

The upstream support is weakened and the downstream procurement is general

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the domestic hydrochloric acid market price is temporarily stable this week. Dezhou Shihua hydrochloric acid is quoted at 500 yuan / ton this weekend, which is temporarily stable compared with last weekend; The price of synthetic hydrochloric acid from Wen Shui is 290 yuan / ton this weekend, which is temporarily stable compared with last weekend; Dezhou Maihua hydrochloric acid is quoted at 50 yuan / ton this weekend, which is temporarily stable compared with last weekend; Liaocheng Huatong hydrochloric acid is quoted at 180 yuan / ton this weekend, which is temporarily stable compared with last weekend; Xiangcheng Sanan hydrochloric acid is quoted at 600 yuan / ton this weekend, which is temporarily stable compared with last weekend.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chain of hydrochloric acid, the upstream liquid chlorine market fell slightly, weakening the support for hydrochloric acid. The price of downstream polyaluminium chloride decreased slightly, and the quotation decreased from 2478.89 yuan / ton last weekend to 2445.56 yuan / ton this weekend, a decrease of 1.34%, a year-on-year increase of 36.41% over the same period last year; The market price of ammonium chloride is adjusted at a low level, and the quotation is 1087.50 yuan / ton. On the whole, downstream products are not enthusiastic about purchasing hydrochloric acid, which has a negative impact on the price of hydrochloric acid.

Future forecast

The market of upstream liquid chlorine has fallen recently, the cost support is general, the market of downstream polyaluminium chloride and ammonium chloride has declined slightly, and the willingness to purchase downstream has weakened. Business analysts believe that hydrochloric acid has mainly suffered a slight shock and decline recently.

According to the data of business agency, from January 7 to 14, the price of MTBE increased from 6270 yuan / ton to 6330 yuan / ton. The price increased by 0.96% during the week, 8.21% month on month and 40.67% year-on-year.

MTBE market continued to rise, and the quotation of some enterprises increased by 160-300 yuan / ton. The tight supply situation continued, and the international oil price continued to rise, with an increase of 4.79%, giving strong support to the MTBE market. In addition, gasoline prices continued to rise, driving MTBE merchants’ willingness to rise. Supported by all parties, MTBE market continued to rise.

In terms of methanol, the methanol market fell first and then rose, and the transaction changed from weak to good. At present, the market maintains a range shock pattern, and it is difficult to rise or fall sharply.

In terms of external market, as of the closing on January 13, the closing price of Asian MTBE market increased by US $10 / T compared with the previous trading day, and FOB Singapore closed at US $843-845 / T. The closing price of European MTBE market decreased by US $0.25/t compared with the previous trading day, and FOB ara closed at US $925-925.5/t. The closing price of MTBE market in the United States decreased by US $2.38/t compared with the previous trading day, and FOB Gulf FOB closed at US $906.14-906.49/t (255.25-255.35 cents / gallon).

Region, country., Closing price, Rise and fall

Asia FOB Singapore USD 843-845 / ton USD 10 / ton

U.S.A FOB Bay 906.14-906.49 USD / ton – USD 3.28/t

Europe FOB ARA 925-925.5 USD / ton – USD 0.25/t

In terms of enterprises, the 200000 t / a isomerization unit of Shandong Chengtai Chemical Co., Ltd. started normally, and the MTBE quotation was reduced by 50 yuan / ton to 6350 yuan / ton. Shi dashenghua’s MTBE quotation is reduced by 50 yuan / ton to 6350 yuan / ton. The 400000 T / a mixed alkane dehydrogenation and 350000 t MTBE unit of Shandong Shenchi Chemical Co., Ltd. was shut down for maintenance on December 27. The specific start-up time is to be determined, and the MTBE quotation is 6400 yuan / T. The MTBE of Lihua Yijin Petrochemical is reduced by 50 yuan / ton, and the quotation is 6350 yuan / ton. The 350000 T / a mixed alkane dehydrogenation unit of Dongming Qianhai chemical started normally, and the MTBE quotation was reduced by 100 yuan / T to 6200 yuan / T.

Supported by positive external conditions and high raw material prices, MTBE prices continued to rise. However, as the price rises to a high level, the enthusiasm for receiving goods in the downstream decreases. In addition, next week, with the continuous shutdown of logistics and transportation in some areas and the beginning of traffic control in some areas, the market demand becomes more and more flat. Business agency MTBE analysts believe that the domestic MTBE market will be sorted out in a narrow range in the short term.