1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the average market price of baking soda on November 25th was around 1548 yuan/ton. On November 24th, the baking soda commodity index was 102.74, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 56.44% from the highest point of 235.84 points during the cycle (2021-11-10), and an increase of 16.39% from the lowest point of 88.27 points on December 22, 2020. (Note: Cycle refers to September 1, 2020 to present)

2、 Market analysis

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of baking soda is running steadily, and the company’s shipments are still acceptable. The price of baking soda in Henan region is consolidating and running. The ex factory price of baking soda in Henan region is around 1450-1550 yuan/ton. Due to downstream demand based procurement, it is expected that consolidation and operation will be the main focus in the later stage. Upstream: According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of soda ash has been running weakly this week. The current average market price is 1546 yuan/ton.

Business Society analysts believe that the price of baking soda has been consolidating recently, with a general trend in the upstream raw material soda ash market. Downstream areas of baking soda, such as pharmaceuticals, textiles, and food, have been purchasing on demand recently, with average demand enthusiasm and a supply-demand game. Overall, it is expected that the price of baking soda will mainly fluctuate in the later stage, depending on downstream market demand.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the TDI market in East China remained stable but declined slightly this week, with a slight decrease in the actual transaction center. As of November 22nd, the average market price in East China was 12650 yuan/ton, and as of November 18th, the average price was 12650 yuan/ton. There was no increase or decrease during the week, with a year-on-year decrease of 26.02%.

This week, the TDI market has been running at a low level, with relatively quiet trading on the market. As the end of the month approaches, the supplier’s awareness of price increases, and traders maintain stable sales. However, the positive news support is insufficient, and the overall TDI price has slightly decreased.

Supply side: Shanghai Covestro’s 310000 ton plant has been shut down for maintenance, while Xinjiang Juli has upgraded its production capacity to 200000 tons per year, but the operation of the plant is unstable.

On the cost side, there are fluctuations within the upstream toluene range, and the overall performance of supply and demand is weak, which provides moderate support for TDI.

Market analysis shows that the TDI data analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the current TDI market is dominated by demand, and with no significant fluctuations in supply side equipment, demand remains weak. It is expected that the TDI market will operate weakly in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, on November 18th, the domestic cyclohexanone market price reference was 8400 yuan/ton. On November 1st, the domestic cyclohexanone market price reference was 8837 yuan/ton, with a price reduction of 437 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.95%.

From the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, it can be seen that since November, the overall domestic cyclohexanone market has shown a weak and declining trend. At the beginning of the month, the domestic cyclohexanone market performed poorly, and the focus of the cyclohexanone market shifted towards a lower level. The price of cyclohexanone decreased by about 300-500 yuan/ton. Subsequently, under the influence of rising costs, the downward trend of the cyclohexanone market gradually came to an end, but the overall positive support within the market was still insufficient, and the cyclohexanone market was weakly consolidating and operating. As of November 18th, the reference market price for cyclohexanone in Shandong Province is around 8350-8400 yuan/ton, and the reference market price for cyclohexanone in South China is around 8600-8700 yuan/ton, with a decrease of nearly 5% during the month.

On the supply side: Currently, the overall supply performance of the domestic cyclohexanone market is relatively stable, with little adjustment in the production of cyclohexanone. The overall market supply is relatively sufficient, and the market support provided by the supply side for cyclohexanone is loose.

In terms of demand: Currently, downstream demand in the cyclohexanone market is mainly for essential needs, and the market’s purchasing enthusiasm is generally average. The demand side provides weak support for the cyclohexanone market.

Upstream: Recently, there has been a slight upward trend in the pure benzene market for cyclohexanone. The rise in raw materials has provided some cost support for cyclohexanone. As of November 15th, the reference price for pure benzene was 7153 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.61% compared to November 1st (7109.67 yuan/ton).

Market analysis in the future

At present, the trading atmosphere in the cyclohexanone market is mild and relatively quiet, and the mentality of on-site operators is average. Downstream purchases are mainly based on volume transactions. The cyclohexanone data analyst from Shengyi Society believes that in the short term, the domestic cyclohexanone market will mainly adjust and operate within a narrow range, and specific changes in supply and demand information need to be closely monitored.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic price of sodium metabisulfite has fallen this week. The average price of industrial grade sodium metabisulfite at the beginning of the week was 1890 yuan/ton, and the average price over the weekend was 1880 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.53% during the week.

This week, the domestic market price of industrial grade sodium metabisulfite fell. The upstream soda ash price of sodium metabisulfite remained stable, with sulfur prices falling by 1.23% and downstream caprolactam prices rising by 0.34%. The market for sodium metabisulfite is slow, and industry insiders are mainly observing the situation. (The above prices refer to the quotes provided by mainstream domestic enterprises, and some unreported enterprises are temporarily not within their scope. The prices are for reference only and are not related to the final pricing of the manufacturers. For details, please contact each manufacturer for consultation.).

Future forecast

At present, the trading of sodium metabisulfite market is not active, and it is expected that the domestic market price will mainly fluctuate and weaken in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic price of sodium metabisulfite has fallen this week. The average price of industrial grade sodium metabisulfite at the beginning of the week was 1903 yuan/ton, and the average price over the weekend was 1893 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.53% during the week.

This week, the domestic market price of industrial grade sodium metabisulfite fell. The upstream soda ash price of sodium metabisulfite remained stable, with sulfur prices rising by 1.66% and downstream caprolactam prices falling by 4.14%. The sodium metabisulfite market is mainly dominated by inquiries and lacks favorable support. (The above prices refer to the quotes provided by mainstream domestic enterprises, and some unreported enterprises are temporarily not within their scope. The prices are for reference only and are not related to the final pricing of the manufacturers. For details, please contact each manufacturer for consultation.).

Future forecast

At present, the trading volume of sodium metabisulfite market is light, and it is expected that the domestic market price will mainly fluctuate and weaken in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the toluene market first rose and then fell in October 2024. From October 1st to 30th, the domestic toluene market price fell from 5890 yuan/ton to 5860 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 0.51% during the period.

In the first half of October 2024, the toluene market first rose and then fell, with an overall upward trend. This cycle coincided with the National Day holiday, during which the external market continued to rise. The toluene market made up for the post holiday gains, and the overall ex factory prices of main refineries increased. However, downstream follow-up was insufficient and lacked demand support, resulting in weak growth in the toluene market. After the holiday, there were more arrivals in the port market, and market supply increased. Under the influence of sufficient supply, the toluene market rose and then fell back, and the overall trading in the spot market was weak. Downstream wait-and-see sentiment was strong.

In the second half of the month, the toluene market continued to decline. During the holiday period, the external market continued to rise, with the toluene market rebounding after the holiday. The overall ex factory prices of the main refineries rose, but downstream follow-up was insufficient and lacked demand support. The toluene market had weak upward momentum, and after the holiday, there were more arrivals in the port market, resulting in increased market supply. Under the influence of sufficient supply, the toluene market rose and then fell, and the overall trading in the spot market was weak. Downstream wait-and-see sentiment was strong, and the overall market price declined.

Cost aspect: The international oil price market rose first and then fell during this cycle, with international crude oil futures closing down as of October 29th. The settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States is $67.21 per barrel. The settlement price of the main Brent crude oil futures contract is $70.73 per barrel. During this cycle, crude oil prices have fluctuated at high levels, which is partly due to the tense geopolitical situation in the Middle East. This news is positive for international oil prices. On the other hand, the supply of crude oil remains tight. The OPEC+2.2 million barrels per day production reduction before the end of November will still be effective, and some oil producing countries have stated that they will carry out compensatory production cuts. The supply shortage still exists, and the international crude oil price trend is rising. In addition, the local economy in Asia has improved, and the market’s panic on demand has eased, boosting the international oil market. The crude oil market is mainly volatile.

Supply side: Sinopec’s toluene quotation rose first and then fell during the cycle, but there were slight differences in the amplitude of each underground quotation. At present, the enterprise is operating normally, the production of equipment is stable, the products are mostly for personal use, and the production and sales are stable. As of October 27th, East China Company quoted 5850 yuan/ton, North China Company quoted 5900 yuan/ton, South China Company quoted 5700-5750 yuan/ton, and Central China Company quoted 5900 yuan/ton.

Demand side: The external market for xylene continues to decline, and the demand support for toluene is relatively weak

On October 31st, Sinopec Sales Company implemented a price of 7300 yuan/ton for xylene, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton from the price on September 30th, 2024. This price was implemented in East China, North China, Central China, and South China. The PX price continued to decline both inside and outside the cycle, with CFR China closing at $829-831/ton as of October 30th, a cumulative decrease of $13/ton from $842-844/ton at the end of September.

The overall decline of the Asian toluene market this cycle, as of Wednesday (October 30th), the Asian toluene market closed down: the FOB Korea closing price in October was 666-668 US dollars/ton, down 3 US dollars/ton; The closing price of CFR China in October is 699-701 US dollars per ton, a decrease of 2 US dollars per ton.

Market forecast: In the near future, the toluene market will be less affected by crude oil and mainly affected by supply and demand. The market supply has significantly increased recently, and refineries are actively reducing prices to sell their accumulated inventory. Downstream demand will basically maintain on-demand procurement, and gasoline demand in some areas will perform well. However, overall, there is still support on the demand side. It is expected that the toluene market will remain stable in the short term, with slight fluctuations being the main trend.