Since June, the domestic cocoon and silk market is still in a high shock adjustment, but all the gains have narrowed. According to the price monitoring of the business community, as of June 28, the average price of domestic raw silk was 423000 yuan / ton, up 0.95% from the beginning of the month and 47.13% from the same period last year. The average market price of dried cocoons was 139000 yuan / ton, which was the same as that at the beginning of the month, with a year-on-year increase of 47.87%.

Recently, the purchase of spring cocoons at major cocoon stations in Qilin District, Qujing City, Yunnan Province is coming to an end. The average price of fresh spring cocoons this year is 65.75 yuan / kg, 24.52 yuan higher than 41.23 yuan / kg in the same period last year, with an increase of 59.4%, a record high. A total of 11700 spring silkworms were planted in the region, with an estimated output of 520000 kg and an output value of 33.9881 million yuan, which could increase the income of silkworm farmers by 12.75 million yuan.

The silkworm farmers in Chaotian District of Guangyuan City, Sichuan province welcomed the spring silkworm harvest season, raising 5400 silkworms and producing 216000 kg cocoons, which led to a direct income increase of 9.72 million yuan. The average purchase price of cocoons this year is 45 yuan / kg, an increase of 10-12 yuan compared with last year. Silkworm farmers are very satisfied with the price of cocoons, which further enhances their confidence and determination in breeding and rearing silkworms.

In Yuexi County, Anhui Province, this year’s spring silkworm production is 28223, cocoon production is 1623 tons, the average market purchase price is 52 yuan / kg, and the output value of fresh cocoons is 84.39 million yuan. The unit price of spring cocoon reached a record high, 57.6% higher than that of the same period last year. The average income of 16700 silkworm farmers in the county exceeded 5000 yuan per season.

Downstream textile weaving off-season, raw material procurement to buy with the main. Shengze area of Jiangsu Province is still limited in production and other factors, so the start-up load is at a low level. The export orders are less affected by the exchange rate and the shortage of port shipping containers than in the same period of previous years, and the production enthusiasm of mainstream weaving mills is not high; In terms of domestic trade, some fabric traders have moderate inquiry enthusiasm, mainly aiming at the early purchase of some best-selling autumn fabrics. Therefore, under the relatively low starting load, the orders of traders are slightly warmer.

Business analysts believe that the current downstream demand is still unclear, wait-and-see sentiment is strong. In the context of macro-control, the second half of the market to grasp the increase in many uncertainties, is expected to be high consolidation in the short term.

As of June 28, the average price of domestic industrial grade lithium hydroxide enterprises was 89666.67 yuan / ton, which was the same as that of last Monday, increased by 2.67% compared with May 28 and 64.02% compared with the same period last year, according to the data of business club’s block list. This week, the market of industrial grade lithium hydroxide was stable at a high level. At present, the spot supply side of the market continues to be tight, the downstream demand is growing steadily, and the market offer is firm.

Output data of lithium hydroxide: in May 2021, the output of lithium hydroxide of major manufacturers in China was 13800 tons, a month on month decrease of 2.13%.

According to the data monitoring of business society, the average price of industrial lithium carbonate in East China on June 28 was 86600 yuan / ton, down 0.46% compared with the price at the beginning of the month. On June 28, the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in East China was 90400 yuan / ton, down 0.44% compared with the price at the beginning of the month.

According to the lithium hydroxide analysts of business news agency, on the whole, under the support of tight market supply and demand, it is expected that the domestic industrial lithium hydroxide market may rise steadily in the short term, and the specific trend needs more attention to the market information guidance.

1、 Nitric acid market price trend chart

Nitric acid price curve

According to the monitoring of business news agency, the average price of concentrated nitric acid in domestic areas this week was 2300 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 2316 yuan / ton at the end of the week, up 0.72%.

2、 Market analysis

On June 22, Anhui Jinhe quoted about 2350 yuan / ton, up 50 yuan / ton compared with the last time; Wenshui Synthetic Chemical Co., Ltd. quoted 2200 yuan / ton for concentrated nitric acid and 1150 yuan / ton for dilute nitric acid, which was the same as last time; Shandong helitainong nitric acid quoted 2400 yuan / ton, which was the same as last time; Anhui Aodeli concentrated nitric acid quoted 2300 yuan / ton, which was the same as last time. The local supply of nitric acid is tight, the shipment is good, and the manufacturer raises the quotation. In some areas, the nitric acid delivery is general, and the manufacturer’s quotation is stable.

Upstream liquid ammonia, domestic liquid ammonia Shandong production price rose 0.38% this week. The domestic market price of aniline rose 6.21% this week. The downstream TDI market price in East China rose 2.72% this week.

3、 Future forecast

The price of raw material liquid ammonia is relatively high, and nitric acid analysts of business community expect that nitric acid may continue to be strong.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the large scale list of business agencies, the average price of domestic liquid caprolactam on June 14 was 14000 yuan / ton, and that of domestic liquid caprolactam on June 20 was 13950 yuan / ton. Caprolactam prices are stable this week.

2、 Market analysis

As of June 20, Nanjing Oriental caprolactam liquid price was RMB 14400 / T, the 400000 T / a unit was normally started and the caprolactam unit was in normal operation. The price of caprolactam liquid of Sinopec is 14100 yuan / ton. The liquid price of Baling Hengyi caprolactam is 14100 yuan / ton, and the 450000 T / a unit is normally started and accepted to be delivered. The price of caprolactam liquid of Baling Petrochemical is RMB 14100 / T, and the 300000 t / a unit is normally started and accepted to be delivered.

This week, the price of raw material pure benzene rose and then vibrated and consolidated. The price of Sinopec’s pure benzene was stable, with the price of 7750 yuan / ton. Domestic pure benzene prices continued to rise, boosted by the continuous rise of crude oil and low pure benzene port inventory. Within the week, the inventory of pure benzene in the main port of East China dropped to below 80000 tons. But at present, most of the downstream products are at a loss, and the follow-up of pure benzene slows down, limiting the rise.

3、 Future forecast

Analysts of caprolactam in business society believe that due to the overhaul of some enterprises’ equipment, the source of goods is relatively tight. Downstream enterprises have reduced demand and cost prices are strong. It is expected that the stable finishing operation of caprolactam will be the main in the short term.

In the last 10 days, the favorable factors of domestic propane market have been obviously supported, and the price has been rising continuously, with the main upward trend. According to the data of business agency, the average price of propane Market in Shandong Province was 4248.25 yuan / ton on June 8, and 4370.75 yuan / ton on June 17, with a period of 2.88% increase, up 50.46% compared with the same period last year.

As of June 17, the main prices of propane in domestic sub region are as follows:

region Specifications June 17th

East China Propane,% (v/v) not less than 95 4000-4350 yuan / ton

North China Propane,% (v/v) not less than 95 4200-4270 yuan / ton

Shandong Province Propane,% (v/v) not less than 95 4300-4450 yuan / ton

South China Propane,% (v/v) not less than 95 4340-4440 yuan / ton

Central China Propane,% (v/v) not less than 95 4250-4600 yuan / ton

The current propane price is up 50.46% compared with the same period last year, and the price is still on the high side. Recently, propane market has many favorable factors, and the price has been up. First, it is the international crude oil market. The recent international crude oil trend has risen, and the news side is favorable for the market mentality. Secondly, the import gas aspect, the high import cost brings obvious support to the market. In addition, after the Dragon Boat Festival, there is a certain demand for replenishment in the downstream. The downstream market enthusiasm is mild, the favorable factors are superimposed, the mentality of the manufacturer is strong and the market behavior is the main. At present, the domestic propane market is in the upward trend in the north and south. After the saving, the northern market is mostly stable and pushed up. Because of the low price in the early stage, the price of the southern market is wide pushed up after the inventory is released after the saving, which is more obvious than that in the northern market. However, the market is still in the market, and the terminal demand is weak due to seasonal factors, which will bring some constraints to propane upstream.

International crude oil market, June 16, international oil prices closed up slightly, the settlement price of the main contract in the WTI crude oil futures market in the United States was $72.15/barrel, or 0.03 USD. Brent crude oil futures market main contract settlement price at $74.39/barrel, up $0.40 or 0.50%. The US gasoline inventory rose last week, limiting the power of oil prices, according to inventory data released by the U.S. Energy Information Agency (EIA) on Wednesday.

Saudi Aramco announced in June that the butane was up regulated. Propane was 530 US dollars / ton, up 35 dollars / ton compared with last month; Butane was $525 / T, up $50 / T from last month.

At present, the international crude oil rise has brought a great support to the market, and the import cost increases, the propane Market follows the main behavior. However, in the traditional off-season of sales, the overall terminal demand is still weak. In the near future, the market supply will benefit the market for a short time due to the decrease of port to ship. It is expected that the propane market will be adjusted narrowly or there may be a weak possibility.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of business news agency, the average market price of steam coal was about 931.25 yuan / ton on June 14, and 973.75 yuan / ton on June 18, with an increase of 4.56% and 70.68% over the same period last year. On June 17, the steam coal commodity index was 116.11, up 2.25 points from yesterday, down 7.11% from the cycle’s highest point of 125.00 (2021-01-19), and up 159.75% from the lowest point of 44.70 on January 20, 2016（ Note: period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now

In terms of origin: Sales of coal mines in origin still maintain a good situation in the early stage, there are still many coal pulling vehicles in coal mines, the overall supply of coal in Ordos is still limited due to the impact of environmental protection inspection, and the coal production in Shanxi is even more tight due to the impact of mining disaster.

Downstream power plants: Recently, due to the impact of summer peak, the daily consumption of power plants is high, and the coal inventory of power plants remains at a low level, so there is a strong desire to replenish. Data show that on June 16, the daily consumption of power plants in eight coastal provinces was 2.06 million tons, at a high level, and the inventory was 25.017 million tons, at a low level.

On June 16, the National Bureau of statistics released data showing that in May, raw coal production was 326.29 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 0.6%, a decrease of 1.8% last month, an increase of 0.6% over the same period in 2019, an average increase of 0.3% in two years, and an average daily output of 10.53 million tons; The imported coal was 21.04 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 4.6%. From January to may, 162.1 million tons of raw coal were produced, with a year-on-year growth of 8.8%, a year-on-year growth of 9.8%, and an average growth of 4.8% in two years; The import of coal was 111.17 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 25.2%.

Business analysts believe that: at this stage, the overall supply of thermal coal is still difficult to increase. In terms of downstream power plants, with the increase of temperature, power plants still have the demand for replenishment. However, recently, affected by the policy, the increase of steam coal is relatively low. On the whole, the short-term steam coal price is relatively strong in the later period, and the specific situation is the demand of the downstream market.

1、 Trend analysis

According to the monitoring of nickel price of the business agency, on June 16, nickel price fell sharply, spot price was 130416.67 yuan / ton, down 3.25% compared with the previous day, up 1.78% from the beginning of the year, up 26.37% year on year.

The index hit a month high with the dollar strong as the PPI data released late on the 15th was higher than expected, and the nickel was down 4.82 percent overnight, leading other varieties. The market has strengthened regulation over concerns about rising commodities, and the market is also concerned about China’s demand performance, and the underlying metals have been hit down. In addition, the Philippine nickel mine export increased, Indonesia ferronickel was put into production steadily, the supply and demand of ferronickel gradually relaxed, and the nickel supply was loose. With the expansion of capacity and technical improvement, the supply surplus of nickel market is expected to be strong.

Forecast: the decline of nickel price is mainly affected by macro factors. The stainless steel and new energy automobile industry have strong demand for nickel, and the basic level is still available. The falling space is limited, but it is necessary to avoid the drag of domestic consumption in off-season.

Aluminum fluoride price falls again

In June, the price of aluminum fluoride fell again, and the market of aluminum fluoride was weak. According to the data of business news agency, the domestic price of aluminum fluoride on June 15 was 8533.33 yuan / ton, down 166.67 yuan / ton or 1.92% from 8700.00 yuan / ton on June 1 at the beginning of the month.

Price fluctuation adjustment of electrolytic aluminum

According to the monitoring of the business community, the price of electrolytic aluminum fluctuated and fell from a high level, the consumption of aluminum market was not ideal, the purchase intention of the downstream was not high, the market supply exceeded the demand, the demand of aluminum fluoride was poor, and the rise support was insufficient.

Aluminum fluoride industry chain down

According to the monitoring of the business community, the price of hydrofluoric acid in the upstream of the aluminum fluoride industry chain has fallen sharply, the cost of aluminum fluoride has fallen, the rising power of aluminum fluoride has weakened, and there is a large space for decline. Since June, the price of hydrofluoric acid has stabilized, the downward pressure of aluminum fluoride has weakened, and the future market is expected to be stable.

Market summary and forecast

Aluminum fluoride industry analysts of business news agency believe that: raw material prices are falling, aluminum fluoride costs are falling, aluminum fluoride has a large space to fall, aluminum ingot Market is cold, downstream demand for aluminum fluoride is limited, and aluminum fluoride rise is not supported enough. Overall, the upstream and downstream market weak adjustment, aluminum fluoride market is still weak.

1、 Trend analysis

As shown in the figure above, the copper price fluctuated and fell this week. As of the end of the week, the spot copper price was 70781.67 yuan / ton, down 1.14% from 71595 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, up 22.13% from the beginning of the year, and up 49.294% from the same period last year. This week, LME copper in March was running in a narrow range, closing at US $9984, up 0.24% for the week; This week, the Shanghai copper index fluctuated at a low level, closing at 71930 yuan, up 1.24%. The international copper index closed at 63720 yuan, up 0.76%.

Copper prices fell in a weak position this week. According to news, it has been confirmed that the boots of the State Reserve Bureau have been put into operation. The varieties involved in this throwing are copper, aluminum and zinc, and the objects are downstream terminal enterprises. Moreover, the receiving quantity of each variety has low requirements. The launching time is at the end of each natural month and will last until the end of 2021. The rumors of throwing reserves brought certain pressure to the whole nonferrous plate, and the copper price also fell. However, the disturbance factors of copper still exist, and the supply has a certain support. However, in terms of demand, the heat of the air conditioning industry may be cooling down, and the automotive industry continues to be affected by the shortage of chips. Therefore, the overall performance of the consumer side is not strong. It is expected that the copper price will continue to fluctuate at a high level.

1、 Price trend

Toluene prices rose this week, according to data from the business agency’s bulk list. On May 30, the price of toluene was 5800 yuan / ton; The price of this Sunday (June 6) was 5841 yuan / ton, up 41 yuan / ton, or 0.7% compared with last week; It was up 59.59% from the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and comment

The peripheral news was positive, boosting toluene prices higher, but downstream demand followed up weak, limiting gains. In terms of external market, as of June 4, the price of imported toluene in South Korea was 761 USD / T, up 21 USD / T, or 2.84% in the week, compared with May 28 on the same month; The price of toluene imported from East China was US $773 / T, up $11 / T, or 1.44% in the week, on May 28.

On the crude oil side, the United States entered the peak driving travel season, and the demand for gasoline has obviously increased. And opec+ conference decided to maintain the gradual increase plan unchanged. The outlook for the crude oil market is good, with oil prices rocketing this week. Brent rose $1.175/barrel this week, or 1.69 percent, on May 28; WTI rose $3.29/barrel, or 4.98 percent.

Downstream: in terms of TDI, TDI in East China fell in shock, with domestic products of 13250 yuan / ton, down 6.69% compared with last week, up 16.91% compared with the same period last year.

In terms of PX market, domestic PX price rose this week, with the price of 6500 yuan / ton, up 1.56% compared with last week, and 58.54% year on year. Asia closed at $830-832 / T FOB Korea and $848-850 / T CFR China as of June 4.

3、 Post market forecast

Toluene analysts of the chemical branch of business society believe that: on the supply cost side, opec+ production reduction implementation, the total number of us oil drilling platforms and weekly EIA and API inventory data. Second, on the demand side, the impact of global epidemic on crude oil demand, recovery of industrial chain, economic and trade situation in Europe and the United States and related progress of financial stimulus plan. Third, we will look at the geopolitical situation between the Middle East and the United States, the progress of the new crown vaccine, the dollar index and the stock market linkage.

The prospect of crude oil market is good, supporting the price of toluene; The downstream follow-up is general, some downstream devices are overhauled, and the demand is weak. In general, the price of toluene in the short term is mainly consolidation. We will continue to pay attention to the trend of blending price of crude oil and gasoline, the maintenance of toluene plant, the arrival volume of toluene in the later period and the influence of downstream demand on the price of toluene.