Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business associations, in October, the domestic vitamin market experienced different overall declines, and the prices of some products further bottomed out, including the prices of vitamin A and vitamin C further declined, while the prices of vitamin E were relatively firm.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, the price of vitamin C continued to fall in October. The average price of food grade vitamin C was 29 yuan/kg at the beginning of the week and 28.67 yuan/kg at the weekend, with a monthly drop of 1.14% and a year-on-year drop of 41.09%. The factory continued to stop reporting, the traders’ prices followed the market, and the downstream purchase was insufficient. By the end of the month, the mainstream price of feed grade vitamin C was 22-24 yuan/kg.

In October, the price of vitamin A continued to drop, with an average price of 116 yuan/kg at the beginning of the month and 114.05 yuan/kg at the end of the month, a monthly drop of 1.72% and a year-on-year drop of 61.62%. The current mainstream market quotation is 108-114 yuan/kg, while the European market quotation drops to 30-35 euros/kg. The demand is weak, the market transaction focus continues to drop, and the market lacks the guidance of favorable factors, so the weakness is hard to change.

In October, the price of vitamin E remained stable as a whole, with the current VE market quotation of 82-84 yuan/kg and the European market quotation of 8.9-9.25 euros/kg. The tight supply of natural gas and electricity in Germany has led to the firm price. The domestic market said that the new Hecheng and Tianxin VE products have been stopped reporting, and the market attention has increased.

Future market forecast

According to the vitamin analyst of Chemical Branch of Business Cooperative, most vitamin products are weak at present, and the price of most vitamin products fluctuates at a low level. There is no rebound signal in the market, and the weak trend may continue in the future. Pay close attention to market trends and changes in enterprise production.

From October 14, 2022 to October 21, 2022, the bidding price of crude benzol dropped, at 6685 yuan/ton last weekend and 6530 yuan/ton this weekend, a weekly drop of 2.32%.

In terms of crude oil: the short-term positive effect of the US release of reserves on the market has been realized. In addition, Biden also said that if the oil price drops to around $70, the US will buy back crude oil to make up for the strategic reserve SPR, which will undoubtedly be good for the market in the medium and long term, so the supply side will still be good for oil prices in the future. On the demand side, inflation in Europe and the United States remains high, and the probability of the Federal Reserve’s further aggressive interest rate increases, which will further increase the risk of economic recession, thereby depressing oil demand. Therefore, in the future, the supply and demand sides of the oil market will increase the game, and the oil price probability will remain volatile, which will make it difficult to go out of a clear direction in the short term. On October 20, the settlement price of international crude oil futures was basically the same as that of the previous trading day. The settlement price of December contract (month) of US WTI crude oil futures was 84.51 dollars/barrel, down 0.01 dollars; The settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was 92.38 dollars/barrel, down 0.03 dollars. The game between supply and demand intensified, and oil prices fell into a stalemate.

The ex factory price of Sinopec’s pure benzene will be reduced by 200 yuan/ton on October 13, 2022, and the current price is 8000 yuan/ton.

Other enterprise quotations: Jingbo Petrochemical quoted 7980 yuan/ton, HSBC Petrochemical quoted 7950 yuan/ton, Weilian Chemical quoted 7903 yuan/ton, and Xinhai Petrochemical quoted 7950 yuan/ton.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices reflects the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of a bar chart based on the concept of price trend K-line. Investors can buy, sell and invest according to the changes in the K-bar chart. Red means rising; Green means: down; The height of the K column indicates the range of rise and fall. The weekly K-bar chart of pure benzene shows that the price of pure benzene has fallen continuously since July, and it has recovered slightly at the end of August and the beginning of September, and declined slightly in October.

From the perspective of the industrial chain, the market price of pure benzene this week was weak as a whole. At the beginning of the week, crude oil and styrene were down, and the external market of pure benzene was down. Under the influence of multiple negative fundamentals, the price of pure benzene continued to decline. Sinopec lowered the ex factory price to 7850 yuan/ton, and lowered it by 150 yuan/ton. In terms of supply, the port has a large number of goods arriving at the port recently, and the market supply is relatively loose, which has once again dragged down the pure benzene market. The downstream receiving intention is low, and the overall market trading is weak. The manufacturers are generally active in shipping, and some goods in East China flow into Shandong for arbitrage. There were many negative factors in the week, and the overall performance of pure benzene was poor. The price of hydrogenated benzene decreased slightly with the overall weak consolidation trend. After some units were shut down, the supply of hydrogenated benzene in the yard was slightly tightened, supporting the price consolidation of hydrogenated benzene. In the future market, the prices of basic crude oil and styrene will rise at the weekend, while the prices of pure benzene will keep rising, and the market atmosphere will improve. However, there is still just demand in the downstream. Under the environment of increased supply in the market, the market of pure benzene will be mixed with bad and good. It is expected that the future market will be dominated by small shocks. Focus on the downstream commencement in the fourth quarter and the impact of crude oil trend on the price of pure benzene.

The bidding price of crude benzol mostly fell this week, with the main production area dropping by 200-300 yuan/ton. The bidding price in Shandong Province this week is 6550-6610 yuan/ton. In terms of supply, the production limit of coking enterprises increased this week compared with the earlier period, and the supply of crude benzol contracted compared with the earlier period, which boosted the market to a certain extent. However, due to the recent decline of the industrial chain, some enterprises stopped production and the overall operating rate of the downstream hydrogenated benzene declined. The demand for crude benzene is limited. The overall decline of the pure benzene industry chain this week has dragged down the crude benzol market mentality. It is expected that under the double influence of bad news and good news in the crude benzol market, the recent trend will be more volatile, mainly maintaining a narrow range of shocks.

According to the bulk list data of the business community, the average price of acrylic acid in East China was 8200.00 yuan/ton as of October 21, down 2.77% from Monday, 6.11% from September 21, and 21.15% year on year in a three-month cycle.

The market of acrylic acid in East China fell this week. From the perspective of supply and demand: recently, the plant load at the supply side has been stable, but the downstream demand has not performed well. It is just necessary to follow up. The market trading atmosphere is light, mainly dragging down the acrylic market. Both sides of the market are cautious.

From the perspective of cost: upstream propylene, according to the data monitoring of the business community, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market continued to decline in a narrow range. The average price of Shandong market at the beginning of the week was 7436 yuan/ton, and the average price at the weekend was 7426 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 0.13%. In the near future, the cost is not supported by acrylic acid.

According to the acrylic analysts of the business community, the current cost support is limited, and the market transaction is just in demand, with a strong wait-and-see atmosphere. It is expected that the acrylic market will be dominated by deadlock in the short term, and more attention should be paid to the market news guidance.

According to the monitoring of the business community, the domestic price trend of anhydrous hydrofluoric acid is temporarily stable. As of the 21st, the market price of hydrofluoric acid was 10300 yuan/ton, unchanged from the beginning of the week.

The domestic price trend of anhydrous hydrofluoric acid is temporarily stable. The spot supply of hydrofluoric acid is normal. The hydrofluoric acid plants in some areas operate at low load due to the impact of raw materials, but the downstream demand is not improving, and the procurement is mainly on demand. Up to now, the mainstream of hydrofluoric acid negotiation in the south is 10000-10400 yuan/ton, and the price of hydrofluoric acid in the north market is 10000-10300 yuan/ton. In terms of export, the export price is higher than the domestic market price due to problems such as content and packaging.

The market price of fluorite as hydrofluoric acid raw material remained at a high level. As of the 21st, the domestic fluorite price was 2956.25 yuan/ton. Recently, the domestic spot supply of fluorite was tight. In addition, logistics in some regions was restricted and transportation was not smooth, so the domestic fluorite price trend remained at a high level. Up to now, the mainstream of domestic fluorite negotiation is 2950-3050 yuan/ton. The price of fluorite on the site remains high, and the price of hydrofluoric acid on the site is temporarily stable due to the support of raw materials.

The market of downstream refrigerant products of the terminal is fair, and the operating rate of the refrigerant industry is maintained. At present, the price trend of refrigerant R22 is temporarily stable, the market supply is normal, and the demand for R22 market applications is guaranteed. The market quotation of R22 is in the range of 18000-20000 yuan/ton. The domestic R134a price has not changed much. The price of trichloroethylene has risen, and the cost support is still in place. The focus of R134a trading remains stable. At present, the R134a market quotation is in the range of 25000-27000 yuan/ton. Previously, downstream refrigerant enterprises were all trading at a loss in order to compete for HFC production quota. With the implementation of the three generation refrigerant quota, the history of quota competition in the refrigerant industry is coming to an end, which also provides a basis for the increase in the price of the industrial chain. The price trend of hydrofluoric acid remains temporarily stable.

In the future, the fluorine chemical industry has improved, the price of raw materials fluorite has remained high, the price of sulfuric acid raw materials has risen, and the price trend of downstream refrigerant products has temporarily stabilized. In addition, the domestic supply of hydrofluoric acid has been slightly strained recently, and the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain are well supported. Chen Ling, a hydrofluoric acid analyst from the business community, believes that the price trend of the hydrofluoric acid market may rise slightly in the future.

The market price of 1 # electrolytic manganese rose this week (October 14 to October 21). The spot market price in East China last weekend was 17050 yuan/ton, and this weekend was 17300 yuan/ton, up 1.47%.

Manganese ore: Affected by the downward trend of logistics and futures markets, manganese ore maintained a weak market this week, with insufficient overall demand. The manufacturers kept their pressure on the price, and the price of ore fell significantly, with an overall decrease of 0.5-1 yuan/ton degree, about 34.5 yuan/ton degree of semi carbonate in Tianjin Port, about 45.5 yuan/ton degree of Australian block, and less than 40 yuan/ton degree of Gabon block. The price of Qinzhou Port manganese ore retreated, the price of semi carbonic acid fell 0.5-1 yuan/ton, the transaction price was 35-35.5 yuan/ton, and the price of Australia was 44-45.5 yuan/ton.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices reflects the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of a bar chart based on the concept of price trend K-line. Investors can buy, sell and invest according to the changes in the K-bar chart. Red means rising; Green means: down; The height of the K column indicates the range of rise and fall. It can be seen from the weekly and monthly K column chart of electrolytic manganese above that since March 2022, the price of electrolytic manganese has continued to decline. After a slight rise in the end of August, the price has continued to stabilize temporarily, and since the end of September, the price has risen slightly.

This week, the electrolytic manganese market continued to rise slightly, with the mainstream price of the market at 15600-15900 yuan/ton. Enterprises have a strong price mentality, and it is difficult to find low-cost goods on the market. The overall market is bullish. POSCO, South Korea, resumed the electrolytic manganese bidding again this week, boosting the market mentality. The recent domestic bidding situation is also relatively good, and the quantity and price of steel bidding have rebounded somewhat compared with the previous period. It is expected that the future market price will remain stable and strong, and there is still some room for improvement. The supply and demand game mentality is strong.

Manganese and silicon: This week, the domestic silicon and manganese had a poor trend, and the futures side declined. As of Friday, the main contract had closed at 6990, down 240 points compared with the 7230 opening on Monday. On the spot side, as the steel bidding was basically finalized in October, transactions in various regions were good this week. According to the price monitoring of the business community, the market price of silicon and manganese in Ningxia (specification: FeMN68Si18) was about 7150-7250 yuan/ton on October 21, and the average market price was 7225 yuan/ton.

In October, the domestic epoxy resin market was affected by the decline of dual raw materials, and the market continued to decline. On September 30, the reference offer range of East China liquid epoxy resin was 20500-21000 yuan/ton; as of October 21, the offer range of East China liquid epoxy resin market was 18000-18500 yuan/ton; on September 30, the offer range of Huangshan solid epoxy resin market was 19000-19500 yuan/ton; on October 21, the offer range of Huangshan solid epoxy resin workplace fell to 17000-17500 yuan/ton; so far, all major mainstream markets have dropped by 2000-2500 yuan/ton, with a large decline.

The raw material bisphenol A market declined significantly in October, lacking support for the downstream. At the end of September, with the decline of demand, the market for bisphenol A fell, and after the festival, it entered a sharp decline trend. Under the influence of various negative effects, such as the overall decline of the industrial chain and the negative effects of supply and demand, as well as the decline of several consecutive auctions, the market for bisphenol A fell sharply, and only 10 working days ago, bisphenol A has given back all its gains in September. As of October 18, the mainstream offer of bisphenol A market was 12800-13200 yuan/ton. After two days of bottoming, the market rebounded slightly by 200-300 yuan/ton. On October 21, the market negotiation was about 13300 yuan/ton.

The epichlorohydrin market fell sharply. After the festival, the raw material propylene was weak and declined. The cost of propylene method had little impact. The cost pressure of glycerin method remained. The factory was active in shipping, but the downstream mainly consumed the raw materials in stock. The low price just required small orders to replenish. The enthusiasm of inquiry was not high. The shipment of the cargo holders was not smooth. The mentality of the operators was under pressure. The market atmosphere was light and the focus of the epichlorohydrin market negotiation was down. As of October 21, the epichlorohydrin market fell to 10500 yuan/ton, with a cumulative decline of 850 yuan/ton, or 7.3%. At present, the shipment of the cargo holders is under pressure, and the market mentality is insufficient. It is expected that the epichlorohydrin market will be weak in the short term.

The contradiction between supply and demand of epoxy resin is still sharp, and the market atmosphere is relatively cold. The resin manufacturers’ shipments continue to be under pressure, mostly following the price reduction of raw materials. The business community expects that the market will be stable after a period of decline. With the small rebound of bisphenol A market, it is difficult to find the low offer of liquid resin market in East China, and the short-term stability of the epoxy resin market is the main thing.

According to the monitoring data of the business community, when the National Day holiday came back in October, the center of gravity of the n-butanol market in Shandong Province moved up. As of October 17, the reference price of n-butanol in Shandong Province was 7266 yuan/ton, which was 600 yuan/ton higher than that on September 30 before the festival (6666 yuan/ton).

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of the business community that the n-butanol market in Shandong Province has seen a broad rise after the National Day, with a rise of 9%. The main supporting factors for the upward focus of the n-butanol market come from the following three aspects:

First, on the supply side, on the eve of the festival, the downstream of n-butanol was actively stocking up, and the manufacturers had a good performance in going to the warehouse. Therefore, after the festival, the overall inventory of n-butanol market was low, the supply side was tight, and the supply pressure was small, supporting the market price to rise.

Second, in terms of cost, the steady rise of propylene market as raw material supports the cost of n-butanol, and the overall attitude of n-butanol industry is positive.

Third, on the demand side, it is reported that after the National Day holiday, the inventory, parking and maintenance plan of a n-butanol unit in Shandong Province may drive the downstream to continue to replenish goods after the holiday if the on-site inventory remains low. Therefore, the demand side as a whole also brings some good expectations. After the holiday, the trading atmosphere in the n-butanol plant is good, and the downstream procurement mentality is good.

As of October 17, the market price of n-butanol in Shandong Province in China is around 7100-7300 yuan/ton, and the price increase is around 400-600 yuan/ton compared with that before the festival. Among them, the ex factory quotation of n-butanol of Luxi Chemical is about 7100 yuan/ton; The ex factory price of Shandong Lihuayi n-butanol is about 7200 yuan/ton.

In terms of upstream propylene, in October, after the National Day holiday, the domestic propylene market was running in shock as a whole. According to the data monitoring of the business community, on October 14, the reference price of propylene was 7620.60 yuan/ton, which was basically the same as that on October 1 (7620.60 yuan/ton).

Post market analysis of n-butanol

At present, the raw material propylene market has fallen slightly, and the cost support given to n-butanol has been somewhat loose compared with the previous period. On the 17th, the overall n-butanol market in Shandong Province fell with the focus of raw materials. The n-butanol data engineer of the business community believed that in the short term, the domestic n-butanol market in Shandong Province will mainly adjust its operation between large stability and small movement, and more attention should be paid to the specific information changes on the supply and demand side.

From October 8 to October 14, 2022, the market price of antimony ingots in East China was temporarily stable, at 79500 yuan/ton last weekend and 79500 yuan/ton this weekend.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices reflects the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of a bar chart based on the concept of price trend K-line. Investors can buy, sell and invest according to the changes in the K-bar chart. Red means rising; Green means: down; The height of the K column indicates the range of rise and fall. It can be seen from the above figure that the antimony ingot market has been on the rise in the near future around the Spring Festival. It entered a stable period in the middle of March, entered a downward channel in the middle of April, slowed down at the end of April, stabilized in May, entered an upward channel in June, fell again after a short period of stability in July, and gradually stabilized in August.

The price of strategic small metal antimony in Europe this week (unit: USD/t)

Variety, October 8, October 14, up and down

European small metal antimony., 12400., 12100., – 300

The price of antimony, a strategic small metal in Europe, declined slightly this week, to 12100 US dollars/ton on October 14, and dropped by 300 US dollars/ton within the week. Recently, the market transaction is relatively cold.

The overall price of antimony ingots remained temporarily stable this week. After falling to 79500 yuan/ton at the end of August, the market has maintained a temporarily stable trend for five consecutive weeks. The overall performance of the market is also relatively light, with few deals, insufficient downstream gas buying, and limited market negotiations. Downstream demand continues to be weak, and the demand for antimony ingots is not sufficiently supported. Downstream procurement on demand for a long time has a great impact on the market mentality. After the festival, some low-cost goods have appeared on the market. As the price of antimony ingots in the external market continues to weaken, market participants generally believe that the price of antimony ingots is more and more likely to decline. The business association predicted that the overall performance of the antimony ingot market would remain stable and weak when the downstream market did not improve significantly.

Price trend of antimony oxide this week (unit: yuan/ton)

Variety, October 8, October 14, up and down

99.5% antimony trioxide, 68000., 68000., 0

99.8% antimony trioxide, 70000., 70000., 0

This week, the domestic antimony oxide market price was temporarily stable, the sales of antimony oxide was still weak, and the antimony oxide enterprises’ purchase intention for antimony ingots was generally low, and the purchase on demand was maintained.

This week, the lead market (10.8-10.14) showed a broad upward trend. The average price of the domestic market was 14990 yuan/ton at the weekend, and 15200 yuan/ton at the weekend, up 1.4%.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices reflects the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of a bar chart based on the concept of price trend K-line. Investors can buy, sell and invest according to the changes in the K-bar chart. Red means rising; Green means: down; The height of the K column indicates the range of rise and fall. Since the market entered September, the expectation of downstream battery enterprises in peak season has increased, driving the price of primary lead to rise.

Lead futures market this week

varieties., Closing price., Compared with the same period last week., Inventory., Compared with the same period last week

Shanghai Lead., 15345 yuan/ton+ 360 yuan/ton., 58780 tons- four thousand nine hundred and eighteen

London Lead., USD 2035/t- 2 dollars/ton., 30400 tons- nine hundred and seventy-five

In terms of futures market, this week’s trend of Lun Lead was volatile, with the main operating range of 1965-2065 US dollars/ton, with a weekly drop of about 0.9%. LME announced on Monday that it would raise the margin of Lonza Lead to $180, and Lonza Lead closed sharply that day. In terms of Shanghai Lead, this week was dominated by strong shocks, with the main operating range of 15155-15385 yuan/ton, up about 2% weekly. During the National Day holiday, London lead rose sharply, while Shanghai lead also actively increased on the first day after the holiday. Later, as the US dollar index continued to be high, the metal market was generally under pressure, and the rise of Shanghai Lead tended to weaken. Supported by domestic advantages, Shanghai Lead rose overall this week.

The spot market continued to follow the trend of Shanghai Lead this week, as a whole. The primary lead enterprises have been active in production and good in supply in recent years. With the increase of lead concentrate imports, the tight supply pattern has been effectively alleviated. From the basic point of view, as the downstream battery peak season in September is expected to gradually increase, the lead ingot is better supported. In terms of supply, with the end of power rationing in September, the smelter started to improve significantly, and the import of raw lead concentrate increased. After the supply of raw materials kept pace, the original lead output increased significantly in September. After entering the peak season, the downstream battery enterprises started to work more, produced actively, and had a good demand for lead ingots. As the National Day holiday approached, the downstream enterprises had a certain demand for goods preparation before the festival, and the procurement was good, and the inventory decreased significantly this month. However, there are many negative macro factors in the near future. With the support of its own fundamentals, the lead price has a stronger anti drop ability than other metals. The recent rise of lead price is not enough due to macro drag, the peak season is not strong, and the upward force is limited. In general, the supply and demand of lead are increasing on the basic level, the market peak season is expected to be strong, and the trading is good. It is expected that the lead price in the future will continue to fluctuate in a wide range, with some room for price increase. It is necessary to focus on the downstream demand and the impact of macro factors.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, in the 41st week of 2022 (10.10-10.14), there were 11 kinds of commodities in the nonferrous metal sector that rose month on month in the list of commodity price rises and falls. The top three commodities that rose were cobalt (3.32%), nickel (3.24%) and copper (2.84%). There were five kinds of commodities that fell month on month, and the top three products that fell were silver (- 3.15%), praseodymium neodymium oxide (- 1.44%) and praseodymium neodymium alloy (- 0.30%). This week, the average rise or fall was 0.48%.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitoring of the business community, after the festival, the NMP price rose significantly. The average price of electronic NMP at the beginning of the week was 26566 yuan/ton, and the average price at the weekend was 27666 yuan/ton, up 4.14%.

2、 Analysis and review

According to the data monitoring of the business community, as of Friday, the mainstream quotation in the domestic electronic NMP market was 28500-30000 yuan/ton. It is understood that due to tight supply, some factories stopped reporting. It was discussed that due to road transportation obstruction, the arrival of NMP raw materials was limited, resulting in insufficient NMP operation in some regions. The supply was tightened, the NMP price and goods were tightened, and the downstream inquiry was active. Under the atmosphere of buying up but not buying down, the demand increased.

After the festival, the BDO market was mainly on the sidelines. Although the manufacturers had a strong intention to set prices, and the published auction prices were mostly high and stable, the market prices in the middle and late weeks had a slight upward trend, the range was not about 200 yuan/ton, but the downstream receiving intention was not strong, it was difficult to make a deal at high prices, and the buying and selling atmosphere was light.

3、 Future market forecast

The NMP analysts of the business agency believe that the raw materials are still at a high level, the cost support is obvious, and the downstream procurement is active. It is expected that the NMP market will operate at a high level in the near future, and the price may continue to rise.