28, 2009, the domestic market of sodium sulfite market atmosphere deserted, industrial grade sodium sulfate mainstream quote price of $2100 / ton, plant equipment running smoothly, the completion of the old customer orders based, basically no inventory. The raw material of soda ash, sulfur prices remain stable trend, no significant changes in the prices of raw materials under the premise, it is expected that the recent Na2S2O5 smooth operation of the market.

Along with the agricultural supply side structural reform, continuously adjust and optimize the structure of planting industry, in 2016 the province’s grain crop acreage continues to increase, to further improve the level of quality varieties, rapeseed, cotton acreage continued to shrink, vegetables and fruits, grains and the efficient agriculture planting area has increased, the advantage of planting areas, industries, high quality varieties were cluster the use of pesticides, the variety and amount of change.

According to the analysis of the occurrence tendency of crop planting structure in Jiangsu province and important crop pests, the province is expected in 2017 demand the use of pesticides and the same in 2016 the actual amount of pesticide. High efficiency, low toxicity and low residue amount of chemical pesticides and biological pesticides will further increase the dosage of insecticide, fungicide dosage of flat flat, slightly reduced, herbicide dosage will increase slightly.

The use of pesticides in 2016

In 2016 the province’s total pesticide use is about 77000 tons, 1100 tons less than the actual amount of 2015, down 1.4%. Its main features:

1.1 pesticides continue to reduce

In 2016 the rice pest was in a moderate, particularly two migratory pests is light to medium, the occurrence degree of light in 2015. According to the pest situation, carefully organized around the prevention, pay attention to scientific medicine, promotion of green control technology, using physical prevention and control measures, optimization of pesticide combination optimization and efficient low toxicity and residue of chemical pesticides and biological pesticide, promotion of Pymetrozine, nitenpyram, diamide with high efficiency and low toxicity pesticides, effective control of the pests, and reduce the the use of pesticides.

1.2 fungicide dosage increased slightly

2016 wheat scab, and occurrence of rice sheath blight on rice blast occurred on the medium. According to the disease condition and scientific medicine, around the prevention and effective control of the disease. At the same time as the government procurement yipensanfang pesticide, effectively expanding the use area, coupled with the appropriate increase of Mu dosage, fungicide and dosage increased slightly.

1.3 new herbicide dosage went

There is a perennial weeds in rice fields on 2016, the occurrence area increased slightly in direct seeding rice weedy rice, thousands of gold and weeds weed control area increased demand. But because of too much rain in some areas, paddy not suitable period of medication, thus reducing the five fluorosulfonyl acetochlor and Cyhalofop butyl, five fluorine? Cyhalofop, Metamifop and other new herbicide dosage, leading to reduced the amount of herbicide use.

1.4 high efficiency and low toxicity pesticide residue application increased the proportion of

According to statistics, in 2016 the main crops on high efficiency and low toxicity pesticide use area accounted for 77.2%, compared with 74.2% in 2015 increased by 3 percentage points, especially in food crops with high efficiency and low toxicity pesticide use accounted for the high area. According to the 906 farmers (planting large family farms, professional service organizations) in rice field investigation, pesticide use, according to the amount of goods, micro toxic pesticides accounted for 5.56%, accounting for 84.77%, accounting for 9.55% of low toxicity and high toxic pesticide poisoning accounted for 0.12%, low micro toxic pesticides accounted for 90.33% of the total. In the wheat field pesticide use, according to the amount of goods, micro toxic pesticides accounted for 5.33%, accounting for 89.32%, accounting for 4.46% of low toxicity and high toxic pesticide poisoning accounted for 0.89%, low micro toxic pesticides accounted for 94.65% of the total.

1.5 the use of pesticides to further optimize the structure

The use of pesticides and the amount and structure of plant diseases and insect pests occurrence are closely related. According to statistics, in 2016 by the use of pesticide commodity meter, insecticide and acaricide, fungicides accounted for 35.58% accounted for 37.02%, accounted for 26.65% of the herbicide and plant growth regulator rodenticide accounted for 0.47%, accounted for 0.28%. All kinds of crops on the use of pesticides are not the same structure, pesticide use in rice field in 2016 (by commodity volume), insecticide fungicide accounted for 41.66%, accounted for 40.67%, accounted for 17.66% of the herbicide and plant growth regulator accounted for 0.01%; the amount of varieties from large to small is as follows: Tricyclazole, abamectin, butachlor, isoprothiolane Pretilachlor, Pymetrozine, and diazinon, emamectin benzoate, validamycin A, thifluzamide etc.. In the wheat field in the use of pesticides (by commodity volume), insecticide fungicide accounted for 16.76%, accounted for 54.11%, accounted for 29.12% of the herbicide and plant growth regulator accounted for 0.01%; the amount of varieties from large to small is as follows: carbendazim, isoproturon, three Triadimefon, fluroxypr mepthyl, thiram and fenoxaprop-p-ethyl, phoxim, Clodinafop propargyl, Pymetrozine JS399-19, tebuconazole, etc..

2017 pesticide consumption demand forecast

The total amount of pesticide demand in 2017 is expected to be 76 thousand and 500 tons (the amount of goods, the same below), down 500 tons more than in 2016. Expected miticide demand is 27 thousand and 500 tons, accounting for 35.9%; fungicide demand is 28 thousand tons, accounting for 36.6%; herbicide demand of 19 thousand and 500 tons, accounting for 25.5%; the other (plant growth regulator, raticide) demand of 1 thousand and 500 tons, accounting for 2%. In the use of pesticides, high efficiency and low toxicity pesticide residue and biological pesticide application proportion will further increase, the amount of highly toxic pesticides will continue to reduce. It is the main basis for the forecast:

2.1 crop distribution is relatively stable

With the adjustment of planting structure optimization, the main crops cultivated area tends to be stable. 2017 is expected to grain acreage stable at 80 million acres, and in 2016 was flat slightly reduced, due to the benefit of planting and last winter rain effect, summer grain acreage decreased slightly; vegetables and fruits, especially the grains and agriculture because the benefit is relatively good, the area will increase slightly; rapeseed, cotton acreage further reduced, but Yajian little space.

The more severe situation occurred 2.2 pests

According to the pest occurrence base, species distribution, meteorological factors and other related factors in the occurrence and comprehensive analysis of the situation, is expected in 2017 of main diseases and insect pests of wheat and rice crops and still place emphasis, pest will rice in 2016 (one year weight lighter history).

2.3 pesticide use reduction continue to force

In order to implement the spirit of the 2017 central document, vigorously promote green agricultural production mode, the implementation of Jiangsu province “two minus six for three” special action and the relevant requirements of the Ministry of agriculture in 2020 to pesticide use zero growth action “, the country will intensify its efforts to carry out agricultural enterprises to build demonstration base, promotion of green control technology and the specialized anti rule fusion, effectively control and reduce the dosage of chemical pesticide. Protected areas of Taihu chemical pesticide use total by 2020 compared with 2015 cuts of more than 20%, South of Jiangsu is less than 5%, the Soviet Union in the reduction of about 1%, the rest of the zero growth.

2.4 high efficiency and low toxicity pesticide residue application area increased

In 2017, the province will continue to high efficiency and low toxicity pesticide residue included in the application area proportion of basic agricultural modernization evaluation system of assessment indicators, all will take effective measures to increase efforts to promote the high efficiency and low toxicity pesticide residue, application area proportion will rise. At the same time, along with the agricultural supply side structural reform, the implementation of green production, people put forward higher requirements on the quality of agricultural products and food safety, without the use of pollution-free agricultural products, green food production base of pesticides made clear requirements, high efficiency and low toxicity, low residue pesticides concern.

Recently released data show that in January 2017 the new energy passenger car sales of 5400, up sharply down 61%. national passenger car association secretary general Cui Dongshu believes that in January the new energy car sales dropped, and before and after new year’s day before the introduction of the new deal subsidy, the promotion of new energy vehicles directory for retrial.

Fall is the keyword subsidies of new energy vehicles in 2017 of the new deal. In accordance with the “notice concerning -2020 in 2016 to promote the application of new energy automotive financial support policy from 2017 to 2018, the new energy vehicles subsidy standards declined in 2016 on the basis of 20% from 2019 to 2020, the subsidy standard declined in 2016 on the basis of 40%. reporter was informed that the influence of the new energy vehicles subsidy sharply fall and other factors, the new energy automobile manufacturers began continuous forced power battery manufacturers to cut prices. Data show that in early February 2017, the price of three Yuan line power battery and lithium iron phosphate line than in December 2016 fell over 15%. due to the new energy car manufacturers still in a period of adjustment, at present, the power battery enterprises started as a whole plain, orders fell more than 20%.

Battery power cuts, and also lead to overcapacity for substantial expansion. According to the latest high Institute of industry data, 2016 domestic battery production capacity is 2.8 times in 2015, while output grew only 82%.

Battery prices also led to the four decline in the price of materials, such as wet diaphragm in early February 2017 prices compared to 2016 12 fell about 9%, the price decline of 7%. electrolyte

However, cathode material LiCoO2 material and three yuan price rose sharply. Data show that in February 8, 2017, 4.35V lithium cobalt price has risen to 260 thousand yuan / ton, compared to December 2016 rose 18% over the same period, three yuan; hybrid materials 523 price of 155 thousand to 160 thousand yuan / ton, compared with the end of rose over 5%.

LiCoO2 is the main raw material of three yuan of materials. Three yuan materials and lithium cobalt prices rose, and is closely related to another key of new energy vehicles in 2017 of the new deal, namely subsidies and power battery mileage hook, the better the performance of battery subsidies more investment of three yuan, the lithium battery manufacturers increased, pulling three yuan material demand. At the same time, half of global cobalt resources from Africa to Congo, but the Congo cobalt production to be subject to geopolitical influence. Data show that in 2016 Congo co production fell 7.35%.

Lithium Engineering Analyst Gao Xiaobing believes that in 2017 the overall excess battery capacity, the industry will face differentiation, especially Six fluorine lithium phosphate And diaphragm increased productivity. Drop in the downstream subsidies, high margin pre separator industry will have more decline, Six fluorine lithium phosphate The electrolyte and downstream margin will have to adjust, but the level of profitability is expected to remain stable.

One quarter is the traditional off-season car market. The industry is expected, the next one or two months, and four power battery materials prices will fluctuate greatly.

Steel and coal industry to production task, the market price may rise in local governments and enterprises will weaken. There are also the pressure of excess capacity, shipbuilding, petrochemical, non-ferrous materials and thermal power industry. Coal, iron and steel industry in 2017 is expected to total production capacity in 2016 is to range from iron and steel, coal production capacity is expected to expand to two industries, iron and steel, coal, cement, electrolytic aluminum and glass, shipbuilding and other industries. Therefore, from a policy perspective, to the production capacity is still an important part of the supply side structural reform, is for a period of time, especially the “one of the main economic work during the period of 13th Five-Year”.

3 from the industrial cycle of our country is in the stage of the current contraction capacity

Our country is long-term overcapacity. From the perspective of the industry cycle, the current production capacity in the contraction phase, the capacity utilization rate is rising. The reasonable range of the capacity utilization rate is about 80%. Now the main industry of our country’s capacity utilization is below 70%, lower than the reasonable range of more than 10 percentage points, which means that the outstanding problem is still overcapacity. The excess area concentrated in the steel, coal, cement, chemical, electrolytic aluminum, glass and other traditional heavy industry.

Transformation and upgrading of the economic structure is an inevitable trend, but also an important part of economic development under the new normal. Therefore, the heavy chemical industry overcapacity is the upgrade of economic structure leads to long-term overcapacity. Excess capacity adjustment should be based on the supply side, demand side supplement. Therefore, theoretically, the current capacity in the contraction phase. From the demand side, capacity contraction phase will inhibit the industry investment demand expansion; from the supply side, excess capacity into production overcapacity, inhibit the growth of industrial production, resulting in long-term inventory at a high level; from the price, the excess area concentrated in the upstream of the heavy chemical industry, will continue to promote the capacity to improve the supply and demand pattern in the field of industrial production to ease deflationary pressures.

Overcapacity situation why prices of industrial products rose

1 industry demand is the primary power price of industrial products rose

Slowdown in 2016 China’s investment and consumption and foreign trade overall demand steady. On the surface, the original power demand is not industrial goods prices. People tend to attribute the reasons for rising prices for supply contraction. To capacity is an important reason for rising prices, but the industry since 2016 and industrial products is closely related to the demand, is a sufficient condition for rising commodity prices. Careful analysis of segments of the industry demand, we found that with iron and steel, coal, nonferrous metals and other industrial products is closely related to real estate, automobile, infrastructure and other downstream industry demand rebounded significantly, driven by rising prices of major industrial products.

In 2016, the real estate investment growth of 6.9% over the same period last year, up 5.9 percentage points, a total of more than 10 trillion, the new volume is about 660 billion 200 million. Housing construction area of the annual growth of 3.2% over the same period last year, up 1.9 percentage points, added 233 million square meters; new housing construction area of the annual growth of 8.1%, fell 14% in 2015, the new volume of 125 million square meters. According to the Automobile Association statistics, in 2016 car production rose 14.5%, 3 million 616 thousand new. In 2016, the total electricity consumption 59 trillion and 200 billion kwh, an increase of 5%, accelerating 4.5 percentage points. In 2016 a wide infrastructure investment growth of 15.8%.

Real estate, vehicles and infrastructure are iron and steel, nonferrous metals, coal industry and other industries, investment in real estate development, automobile production and infrastructure investment rebounded significantly contributed to the related industrial product price rise.

According to Mysteel statistics, as of the end of November 2016, local reporting has been removed in steel production capacity of 77 million 330 thousand tons, of which only 13 million 860 thousand tons in capacity, accounted for only 21.8%. In addition, in 2016 the new production capacity of 14 million tons, which is a part of 2015 began construction. From the data we can see around the capacity to more than a few years ago, a positive attitude, but the capacity to improve quality. In 2016, crude steel and steel production increased by 1.2% and 2.3% respectively, compared to the same period last year increased by 3.5 percentage points and 1.7 percentage points respectively. The price of iron and steel production capacity to promote, rising demand is the main reason of steel prices.

In addition, the rapid growth of the money supply also support the formation of major industrial products prices. Due to the level of growth and macroeconomic stability in low price in 2015, the central bank cut interest rates 5 times and 4 times lower the deposit reserve ratio, plus 2016 RRR cuts, makes our country more relaxed monetary conditions. From the perspective of money supply since 2016, money supply growth accelerated further, especially M1 significantly accelerate the growth of. 12 at the end of 2016, M2 balance of 155 trillion and 10 billion yuan, an increase of 11.3%, M1 balance of 48 trillion and 660 billion yuan, an increase of 21.4%. From the financing point of view, the scale of social financing in 2016 the stock of 155 trillion and 990 billion yuan, an increase of 12.8%, significantly higher than the nominal growth rate of GDP. Therefore, the rapid growth of the money supply is the main reason to support the prices of industrial products rose.

The 2 part of the industry production capacity to lead to limited impact from the supply side in the short term price

From the historical experience and trends, the trend of the change in the price of major industrial crude oil, coal, steel and nonferrous metals and other commodities is demand rather than supply driven. The two oil crisis in 1970s, aluminum ore production cuts, the Gulf War in 1991 from the supply side over the impact of the rise in price. But supply shocks impact on price is generally impulsive, price changes tend to rise after the one-time step shaped or inverted V shape, it is difficult to form a supply shock to commodity prices rising trend of support.

In 2016, the coal industry in promoting to limit the working days as the starting point to capacity, power coal and coke coal prices have rebounded main types. In 2016 to one of the coal production capacity policies is to strictly control the production time, 330 working days to 276 working days before the. Since the date of production constraints, the decline of the coal yield significantly, prices soared. In 2016, coal production fell by 9.4%, prices rose 27.9% in December. Therefore, the coal to yield limiting capacity to bring up the price, and the demand for coal increased iron and steel, electric power industry has led to a certain extent, the price rise.

3 previous price oversold prices low base

technology currently on the market of commercial infrared imaging technology, micron resolution in 50-100 (m), in the study of cell internal structure of high definition imaging is limited.

The LANIR research team has successfully developed a more compact, more convenient and more efficient nano infrared microscopic imager prototype. The main application areas expected: Materials Science, biochemistry, cell pathology and molecular biology of the cell, but also can be applied to the quality inspection of industrial products, such as antibacterial textile and biological function of metal implant coating detection.

Related links:

The LANIR research team using infrared microscopy is currently the world’s most advanced technology, combined with the infrared spectrometer, will increase the resolution to 70 nm (nm), increased nearly 1000 times, means to achieve the human tissue internal high definition imaging technology breakthrough, can have biochemical evolution effect observed in real time in the interior of a cell.

[chemical] Gade Chemical Network Finance on the 13 day after C5 petroleum resin market ushered in the rally, downstream manufacturers to accept the goods and materials better, C5 prices continue to rise, the cost of petroleum resin surface positive support.

In February 14th, some areas of domestic petroleum resin Market overview:

Southern China market C5 5# petroleum resin adhesive resin for road marking paint, the mainstream price of 9500 yuan / ton, 1# mainstream hydrogenated petroleum resin in 16500-17000 yuan / ton. The hydrogenation resin supply, strong price.

The market of East China C5 petroleum resin 5# resin for road marking paint mainstream price at 9000-9200 yuan / ton, adhesive resin in the mainstream price 9000-9500 yuan / ton, the market outlook is expected to still rising trend.

Shandong jade Chemical Co. Ltd. C5 petroleum resin (pure m-pentadiene raw material for the production of the original offer): adhesive with 5# C5 petroleum resin price 9800 yuan / ton, road sign paint with modified 5# C5 petroleum resin price 9400 yuan / ton, normal device.

Daqing Huake chemical 4# C5 petroleum resin adhesive, traffic paint with a reported 9200 yuan / ton, 5# offer 9500 yuan / ton, Nissan 30 tons of normal. Normal operating device.

C5 petroleum resin paint Puyang Ruisen petroleum resin Co. R3101 offer 9800 rose 800 yuan / ton, A1100 adhesives offer 10000 rose 500 yuan / ton. Nissan 50 tons.

Anhui normal concentric C5 petroleum resin plant, 4# petroleum resin for road marking paint price 9300 yuan / ton; 4# petroleum resin adhesives offer 11000 yuan / ton. The normal production capacity of 30 thousand tons.

Market summary: after C5 petroleum resin market ushered in the rally, downstream manufacturers after replenishment, coupled with crude oil prices at $50 / ton fluctuations, petroleum resin cost of positive support. The market outlook is expected to rise in price based C5 petroleum resin.

The latest statistics released by the national customs, in 2016 the annual Chinese total exports of 26 million 720 thousand tons of chemical fertilizer, down 22.5%; total exports amounted to $6 billion 513 million, down 40%. at the same time, Chinese chemical fertilizer imports also fell last year.

Export

Total exports of 8 million 860 thousand tons of urea, down 35.6%, which is nearly three years of urea exports for the first time in less than 10 million tons; total exports of diammonium phosphate 6 million 800 thousand tons, down 15.3%; a decrease of three yuan compound fertilizer of potassium sulfate and potassium more nitrogen and phosphorus, total exports were 27 thousand tons and 7711 tons, year-on-year although the 2016 88.4%. fell 64.6% and export tariffs remain relatively preferential policies, but exports have decreased substantially, there are three main reasons:

One is the international market downturn, agricultural fertilizer demand flat, it is difficult to maintain the growth of export Chinese fertilizer;

The two is with the new international capacity increase, the international fertilizer market competition is becoming increasingly fierce, and the Chinese fertilizer production cost is high, the decline of international market competitiveness;

Is the three since October last year, the domestic market demand, urea prices rose sharply, enterprises focus on maintaining domestic demand, exports.

The year 2016 China total imports of 8 million 320 thousand tons of chemical fertilizer, down 25.4%; total imports amounted to $2 billion 406 million, which fell 38.7%. potassium chloride, total imports of 6 million 820 thousand tons, down 27.6%; NPK compound fertilizer three yuan total imports of 1 million 130 thousand tons, down into the main reason for the 22.6%. export volume decline, with China fertilizer production increase the self-sufficiency rate of domestic fertilizer, improve, replace some of the imported.

Asphalt rubber chemicals group rose LED

Black color, rising enthusiasm quickly transferred to the chemical field, days of all varieties were unilateralism, methanol, plastics, PP were up nearly 4%. Asphalt 1706 contract early straight up, strong break the pre shock interval, hitting the daily limit of 2968 yuan / ton, hit a new high stage, closed at 2938 yuan / ton, up 5.91%. The asphalt downstream inventory is low, and the coking material prices remain strong, the Northeast refinery coking materials to maintain production, the overall increase of asphalt resource co.. While the festival of northern winter demand stable release, spot prices strong than expected, so the price up plenty of confidence. The rubber rose more than 5%, as a new high. The supply side is currently in the rubber stop cutting period, this is in a strong period, while demand for optimistic expectations of renewed support, rubber prices follow the overall atmosphere of strong commodity.

Chemical soaring investors began to focus on how to interpret the bellwether in crude oil futures.

The beginning of November 14, 2016, the international oil price from $44 / barrel once stood 56 U.S. dollars / barrel, since the cumulative increase of 24%. For this round of rally, the organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) production is a thunder. In November 30th, OPEC made the decision at the Vienna meeting, members of the collective cut 1 million 200 thousand barrels of daily crude oil production, the average daily output of 32 million 500 thousand barrels in the peak control, production agreement from January 1, 2017 implementation, for a period of 6 months, 6 months after the extension of the implementation of the agreement will continue to depend.

Not only that, in December 11th, OPEC and non OPEC producers reached fifteen years ago the first joint production agreement in Vienna, this is a landmark event, detonated long passion. Because the OPEC is no longer expected yield, slow growth in demand for crude oil, the market generally believes that in the second half of 2017 to the first half of 2018, global oil supply and demand is expected to achieve rebalancing.

Law from a historical point of view, November and December are often high regional years BDI index, from the west to the Chinese Christmas holiday Spring Festival holiday is the traditional off-season shipping market. For example in 2016, February 2016 was dropped last century since 80s the lowest point of 290, thereafter, BDI index continued to rebound to mid November 2016 high of 1250 points, 200 trading days rose 960 points, or the period of more than 330%.

The reason for the formation of this seasonal pattern, mainly because of the weather. Jinshi futures analyst Huang Liqiang pointed out that from November to February is the most northern cold, many places are not suitable for shipping, shipping less so. At the same time, this period is the Western Christmas and the Spring Festival holiday, there are China, trade stagnation and other factors, the domestic various commodities are the least in 1, imports in February, very regular. In November December, appear high because it is winter storage market, namely the coming season before stocking in advance.

“Now is the northern hemisphere spring, according to the previous data show that this period is the global shipping season, so BDI fell within the normal seasonal phenomenon, do not read too much.” Huang Liqiang said.

Soochow Futures Institute Jiang Xingchun believes that the BDI index fell, an important driving force reflects the Chinese demand and imports still can the global shipping industry bottomed out, once the Chinese economic slowdown, commodity prices can not support the demand level, then there may be adjusted shipping index.

Winter quietly changed the pattern for many years

Soochow Futures Institute Jiang Xingchun believes that the BDI index fell, an important driving force reflects the Chinese demand and imports still can the global shipping industry bottomed out, once the Chinese economic slowdown, commodity prices can not support the demand level, then there may be adjusted shipping index.

Go down endless, yixieqianli. As a barometer of global economic recovery BDI index (BDI), which change radically the roller coaster to the shipping industry are “stimulus”.

Since January 18th, BDI index from 952 points to 702 points, has declined for 15 consecutive trading days, the cumulative decline of 26.26%, down 250 points, a record low since August 24, 2016.

This seems to be a repeat of last year’s story: in February 2016, BDI fell to a record low of 290 points. However, after this, the BDI index will be opened up to 9 months of birth rates rebound, while commodity derivatives trading hot, also opened a bull market.

The broker believes that 2017 BDI big trend is expected to exceed expectations, is expected to rose 33% to 63%, in the long term there is still room to rise in late February, will open the rebound. This prediction can be realized?

BDI seasonal decline

The disk, round down cycle from 18 November 2016 hit a high open quietly after 1257, has fallen 555 points, 53 trading days or up to 44.15%.

“The Chinese Spring Festival holiday has past, but the festive atmosphere has not yet fully dispersed. As the world’s largest China commodity demand in China, during the Spring Festival holiday, holiday demand, enterprise production, shipping market deserted, so that the lower BDI index.” Xing futures analyst Lin Hui said.