On May 29, the fluorite commodity index was 103.95, up 0.22 points from yesterday, down 18.46% from 127.49 points in the cycle (2019-01-03), and up 111.24% from 49.21 points on December 18, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date)

According to statistics, domestic fluorite prices have risen, with an average price of 2962.5 yuan/ton as of 30 days. Recently, domestic fluorite plants have been operating normally, mines and flotation plants have been operating normally, the supply of fluorite in the field has been slightly tight, and the price of hydrofluoric acid in the downstream has recently risen. For the fluorite market, the price of fluorite market has risen on demand. Recent downstream installation start-up situation is general, fluorite spot supply is normal, terminal downstream pick-up situation improved, resulting in rising market price trend. As of 30 days, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Inner Mongolia is 2700-3000 yuan/ton, the mainstream of 97 fluorite wet powder in Fujian is 2800-3100 yuan/ton, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Henan is 2700-3100 yuan/ton, and the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Jiangxi is 2800-3200 yuan/ton. The price trend of fluorite is rising.

The price trend of hydrofluoric acid Market in downstream fluorite is rising. As of 30 days, the domestic market price of hydrofluoric acid is 11490 yuan/ton. The price fluctuation of hydrofluoric acid market has a certain positive impact on the upstream fluorite market. However, the recent start-up of hydrofluoric acid plant is general, the demand for fluorite is weakened, and the price fluctuation of fluorite is running. Recent downstream refrigerant product installations started at a low level, the upstream fluorite and hydrofluoric acid demand is general, the recent downstream refrigerant trading market is general, hydrofluoric acid product price trend is stable. Recent downstream refrigerant market transactions are cool, R22 refrigerant facility starts at 60%, R22 market facility start-up rate is temporarily stable, the main manufacturer of bulk water factory offer price is 18500-19500 yuan/ton, but the manufacturer does not have bulk water spot, mainly a small number of cylinders shipment. In addition, the actual demand side of the market has not changed much, and the delivery quotation is general. Domestic market price trend of R134a shocks, production enterprises equipment start-up rate remains low, refrigerant market demand is general, manufacturers mainly export. But the price of on-site transactions does not change much. Businessmen buy on demand. Generally speaking, the downstream industry is in a general market. In addition, the fluorite market supply is normal and the price of fluorite is rising. Chen Ling, an analyst of business associations, believes that the price of fluorite market may rise slightly.

First, the price trend

According to business price monitoring, this week the domestic methanol market first rose and then stabilized.

At the beginning of the week, the average price of domestic methanol market in 2288 yuan/ton, the weekend reported 2342 yuan/ton, the weekly increase of 2.36%, prices than the same period last year down 23.18%.

Second, the market analysis Products: Domestic methanol market performance is strong, local prices continue to move up. Port market, futures performance is fair, narrow shock mainly, the spot market with a small adjustment. In the mainland market, the new olefin plant production is expected to be active, the current Northwest main production area is OK, some of the suspension, and the recent freight continues to rise, the arrival cost has been improved to a certain extent to support the methanol price. It is worth mentioning that the current production area inventory is mostly transferred from the upstream end to the intermediate trade link, and the demand end has no obvious increase and the volume of goods digestion needs a certain period, so the second half of the local increase rhythm or slightly slower.

In addition, beware of rising freight costs on the production area of the rising space of the suppression conduction. Freight, domestic methanol freight local continued to move higher. Inner Mongolia North Line to Lubei Freight reference 300-360 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton, South Line to Lubei 210-350 yuan/ton, up 20-40 yuan/ton. Shanxi Local to Lubei 120-200 yuan/ton; Guanzhong to Lubei reference 130-170 yuan/ton, to Lunan 150-200 yuan/ton. Ningxia to Lubei part of 280-290 yuan/ton or so.

Xinjiang to Lubei 660-680 yuan/ton, to Wenan 630-650 yuan/ton or so. Industrial chain: Formaldehyde: Formaldehyde market local adjustment. Affected by Lunan methanol rise, local formaldehyde enterprises narrow increase, other areas of temporary stability, downstream market is still just need to purchase mainly, the overall transaction in general, did not change. Acetic acid: Domestic acetic acid market part of the exploration, this month’s export orders concentrated in the recent delivery, to ease the domestic social inventory pressure of acetic acid, and some production enterprises to report a rise in confidence, Jiangsu Thorpe acetic acid device is still low-load operation, some export orders are delivered, North China acetic acid market is relatively optimistic, northwest, north China is still light Dimethyl ether: dimethyl ether price decline, market transaction atmosphere in general. Henan Regional Enterprises Bidding is obvious, the North Henan region fell below the 3,000 Yuan mark, corporate profits upside down losses serious, western Henan the price of high prices, manufacturers to leave the goods deadlocked, inventory pressure is great.

Shanxi Area Orchid is expected to stop at the end of this month overhaul, shipping pressure is small, the mainstream deal on the standard Henan area small decline mainly.

Third, the forecast of the aftermarket Business community Point of view: positive aspects, the mainland production enterprises pre-sale smooth, inventory is not high, temporarily no sales pressure; Nemonjute MTO device low load operation; Shandong Luxi, Nanjing Zhicheng Phase two MTO is expected to start production in 6-July; On the negative side, the traditional downstream products, dimethyl ether, acetic acid market continued to be low, corporate profitability ; The production of international methanol plant is stable, imported goods will be concentrated in port in early May at the end of April, when the social inventory will have a significant increase; affected by safety, environmental inspection and other factors, local market terminal enterprises to stop, affecting the consumption of methanol. After this week’s sharp price rise, downstream resistance highlighted, with weak, traders to slow down, and futures in the second half of the trend is weak, business society methanol analysts expect that next week the market will be stable, do not rule out the possibility of a local retreat. Port trend and futures maintain a high correlation, the recent increase in port arrival, internal dependence will be alleviated.

Price Trend

According to data from business associations, the average price of maleic anhydride offer by the end of the weekend was 7,100.00 yuan/ton (including tax), and the offer was weaker.

II. Market Analysis

Product: This week, the domestic maleic anhydride market as a whole showed a weak decline.

Industry chain: First, this week, domestic unsaturated resin finishing, downstream demand is general, resin factory on demand procurement is the main, domestic maleic anhydride market weakened, prices fell; secondly, the mainstream factory price weak finishing. Peripheral crude oil fluctuations affect the field mentality, crude oil has a certain support market; upstream raw materials pure benzene and n-butane are strong, the market supply is sufficient, in the short term, the profit margin of benzene and butane maleic anhydride is stable. Finally, at present, downstream warehouse replenishment is cautious, and factories are mainly on the lookout.

3. Future Market Forecast

At present, the domestic maleic anhydride market is likely to maintain a weak consolidation trend in the near future, and the overall price may be the same as this week, according to the analyst of maleic anhydride products of Business Society Chemical Branch.

First, the price trend

According to business data monitoring, the price of Trichloromethane in Shandong Province was sharply higher this week, the average price of two chloromethane in Shandong at the beginning of the week was 2883 yuan/ton, the average price of the weekend was 3200 yuan/ton, and the increase in the week reached 10.98%.

Ii. Analysis of Causes Product Reason: This week, due to Shandong Golden Ridge Chemical Maintenance, the overall supply of chloromethane market tension, enterprises and traders more limited shipments and low inventory. At present, the report price of bulk fish in Shandong area is about 3200 yuan/ton, about 4000 yuan/ton in Jiangsu area, and about 3650 yuan/ton in Jiangxi area.

In terms of start-up, the current jinling chemical plant maintenance, recovery time is undetermined; dongying Jinmao operation; Luxi chemical Plant started 60%; Jiangsu Liwen Plant started normal; Jiangxi Liwen Plant normal operation. Industrial chain: Upstream, the domestic methanol market is mixed, the mainland local higher, downstream replenishment and late part of the installation of parking and other good news support, the mainland part of the market shipment is fair, coupled with the recent increase in freight costs caused by increased arrival cost, local continued increase, the current average price reported 2248 yuan/ton, the liquid chlorine market is stable and weak Enterprise Library pressure is larger, north China Enterprises more quotes 1 yuan/ton or so, subsidized freight 100 yuan/ton, east China affected by maintenance, more than 500 yuan/ton.

Downstream, R22 refrigerant market overall start rate of about 60%, the market trading flat, now the Enterprise Scatterwater Factory reported 18500-18800 yuan/ton. Industry: According to business price monitoring, in the 18th Week of 2019 (5.6-5.10) commodity prices rose and fell in the chemical sector a total of 24 kinds of goods, of which more than 5% of the total number of goods accounted for 3, accounting for the plate of 4.1% of goods monitored; The top 3 commodities were two Chloromethane (13.33%) , Trichloromethane (10.98%), Acetone (5.15%).

A total of 31 items fell in the ring, a total of 3 products fell above 5%, accounting for 4.1% of the number of goods monitored in the sector, and the first 3 of the decreases were hydrochloric acid (-34.43%), sulfuric acid (-21.48%) and ammonium chloride (-8.2%).

Third, the forecast of the aftermarket Business Society two Chloromethane data analysts believe that the current Chloromethane production enterprises overall start low, spot supply tight and low inventory, although the current downstream market demand is flat, but is about to enter the refrigerant demand season, it is expected that in the future a short period of time the Trichloromethane market high strong

Last week (April 29 May 3), the market supply was more abundant and the price of potassium chloride was stable.

May 6 China Potassium chloride Wholesale price index (CKPI) was 2217.44 points, down 0.52 points, or 0.02%, an increase of 120.44 points, or 5.74%, and a decrease of 1073.15 points over the base period. Supply situation: Domestic potassium, Qinghai Salt Lake Plant normal operation, Nissan 14000 tons or so; May Salt Lake Benchmark Products 60% Crystal powder to the station price unchanged, continue to maintain 2350 yuan/ton, but the rebate policy changed to 50 Yuan/ton; dealer Inventory is OK, the regional transaction price is stable, in 2200-2250 yuan/ton or so. Import potassium, port inventory is higher, maintained at about 2.05 million tons; 62% Russian white potassium offer to maintain about 2350-2400 yuan/ton, but the actual transaction price has a discount.

Border trade potassium aspect, the arrival quantity is less, according to the demand to take the goods mainly, 62% Russian white potassium quotation maintains 2150 yuan/ton about. Demand situation: Spring ploughing is basically over, only some rice fertilizer in northeast China, the demand for potash fertilizer is light.

Compound fertilizer enterprises began to stabilize, the overall construction rate of enterprises to maintain a high, the demand for potassium fertilizer has a certain support. International market: International potash demand suspended, last week international potassium chloride prices remained stable. On the price side, the fob prices of potassium chloride in Canada, the Russian Federation, Jordan, Israel, South-East Asia and Brazil remained stable at $253-298/ton, USD 236-311/ton, 263-287 USD/ton, USD 263-312/ton, 290-310 USD/ton, 340-350 USD/
Tons.
Table: International potassium chloride price change table
Products
Regional
Degree of change
(USD/T)
Spot price (USD/T)
2019-5-2
2019-4-25
Potassium chloride
(FOB Bulk)
Canada
0-0
253-298
253-298
Russian Federation
0-0
236-311
236-311
Jordan
0-0
263-287
263-287
Israel
0-0
263-312
263-312
CFR Southeast Asia
0-0
290-310
290-310
CFR Brazil
0-0
340-350

340-350

Data source: According to the relevant material collation Domestic market: The recent domestic potassium chloride market price is mixed. Association monitoring data show that domestic potassium chloride provinces wholesale prices, Fujian, Hunan, Jiangxi province Price compared to the previous week 50 Yuan/ton, 30 yuan/ton, 10 yuan/ton, Hainan, Hubei province prices compared to the previous week fell 50 Yuan/ton, 36.5 yuan/ton, other provinces prices remained stable

Import potassium chloride Provinces wholesale prices, Hubei, Hunan, Jiangxi Province price than the previous week rose 96.7 Yuan/ton, 50 Yuan/ton, 20 yuan/ton, Hainan Province price compared to the previous week down 50 yuan/ton, other provinces prices remained stable.
Table: Domestic potassium chloride price change table
Varieties
Provinces
2019-5-2
(RMB/ton)
2019-4-25
(RMB/ton)
Price
(RMB/ton)
Chain
Domestic potassium chloride
Wholesale price
Fujian
3,150.0
3,100.0
50
1.6%
Hunan
2,300.0
2,270.0
30
1.3%
Jiangxi
2,400.0
2,390.0
10
0.4%
Hubei
2,246.0
2,282.5
-36.5
-1.6%
Hainan
3,250.0
3,300.0
-50
-1.5%
Imported Potassium chloride
Wholesale price
Hubei
2,786.7
2,690.0
96.7
3.6%
Hunan
2,450.0
2,400.0
50
2.1%
Jiangxi
2,730.0
2,710.0
20
0.7%
Hainan
3,575.0
3,625.0
-50

-1.4%

Source: China Agricultural Capital Circulation Association At present, the supply of potash fertilizer market is still plentiful, the port potash fertilizer inventory is high, but the new single deal of potash fertilizer is insufficient, demand support is limited, potassium chloride price is stable. After the market, compound fertilizer enterprises into the summer fertilizer production cycle, the demand for potassium fertilizer increased, but the current supply of potash fertilizer is sufficient, dealer inventory is OK; international markets, international potash demand slowed down, short-term prices temporarily stable. In summary, it is expected that the domestic potassium chloride price in the short term will be stable operation, focusing on the demand for potash fertilizer.