1、 Price trend

On March 29, the tin commodity index was 62.63, unchanged from yesterday, 37.53% lower than the cycle’s highest point of 100.25 (2011-09-05), and 46.13% higher than the lowest point of 42.86 on December 9, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now).

2、 Market trend analysis

Domestic market: this week, Lunxi electronic disk rose again. At the beginning of the week, it fell to the weekly low of $12700 / ton, then bottomed out and recovered. Then, it was up by 18:00 on Friday. The weekly high was $14560 / ton, up $825 / ton, up 6.09%, with 1614 transactions and 17778 positions, up 281. This week’s spot tin market was driven up by the futures market. Friday’s spot price was 121000-123500 yuan / ton. In terms of premium and discount, the rising range of Yunxi spot water in Shanghai tin 2006 contract decreased from 20000 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 8000 yuan / ton on Friday, while that of Xiaopai and ordinary Yunzi decreased from 8000 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 5000-5500 yuan / ton on Friday.

Industry: this week, the basic metals are in a state of recovery and stabilization. The main reason is that the Federal Reserve announced unlimited quantitative easing policy, and the major central banks around the world have followed the policy of continuous interest rate reduction and easing. After the G20 meeting, the stimulus policy of introducing more than 5 trillion US dollars into the world was announced. The market gained confidence and left the market short in the week, which made the basic metals recovery.

According to the price monitoring of the business association, in the 12th week of 2020 (3.23-3.27), there are 8 kinds of commodities in the list of commodity prices rising and falling, among which there are 3 kinds of commodities with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 13.6% of the monitored commodities in the sector; the top 3 commodities are silver (15.02%), gold (7.72%) and copper (6.48%). There are 13 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, and the top three products are antimony (- 4.98%), silicon metal (- 3.51%) and titanium concentrate (- 3.17%). This week’s average was 0.82%.

3、 Future prospects

Next week will enter April, the domestic situation has been further controlled, local governments and central banks continue to offer various stimulus policies to help enterprises to start a good recovery of life and production order, the market is expected to warm up consumption in April, but the overseas market is still relatively serious, the market risk is dependent, the domestic resistance is still stronger than the external market, and the ratio of some products will continue to be repaired.

According to statistics, the price of phthalic anhydride in China continued to decline this week. As of the end of the week, the price of phthalic anhydride from the beginning of the week was 4575 yuan / ton, down 6.87% from 4912.5 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, down 32.22% year-on-year. Recently, the price of phthalic anhydride in China has been falling continuously, and the market price of phthalic anhydride has reached a new low in ten years.

This week, the market price of domestic phthalic anhydride continued to decline. Due to the low crude oil price volatility, the price of phthalic anhydride upstream raw material ortho benzene fell to the low level of 4300 yuan / ton. In addition, the demand of the downstream terminal in the near future is limited. Some phthalic anhydride manufacturers have high inventory and poor delivery. Affected by the sharp decline of raw material price, the market price of domestic phthalic anhydride has been falling continuously. The market price of phthalic anhydride and phthalic anhydride in East China has fallen, the downstream factories have been shut down a lot, the factory inventory pressure has increased, and the high-end transaction has been blocked. Recently, the factory inventory has increased, and the price trend of phthalic anhydride market has declined. The main flow of the negotiation of the neighboring method ‘, The prices of most manufacturers in the site have declined, and the downstream purchase is mainly on demand, with a strong wait-and-see mentality, and the market price of phthalic anhydride has declined significantly.

In recent years, the execution price of domestic phthalic anhydride upstream product Sinopec fell to 4300 yuan / ton, and the import phthalic acid Market in port area continued to decline. In recent years, the port phthalic acid market was weak, the port inventory increased, and the external quotation of phthalic acid decreased. The actual transaction price was subject to negotiation, and the actual list was discussed in detail. Affected by the decline of upstream raw material phthalic acid price, the market price of phthalic anhydride continued to decline.

The price of isooctanol, the downstream DOP raw material, fell sharply, the cost of DOP raw material decreased, DOP enterprises operated at low load, and the logistics and transportation basically recovered in the near future, but DOP manufacturers still had a lot of inventory. DOP price fell, PVC enterprise equipment start low, customer procurement enthusiasm is poor. The main quotation in DOP market is about 5800-6200 yuan / ton, and a small amount of market plasticizers are traded. After that, DOP will be under great pressure, and the market price of phthalic anhydride will be significantly lower.

In the later stage, the crude oil price is still in a weak position in the short term. In addition, the peak season of the downstream plasticizer industry is over, and the demand for the upstream phthalic anhydride is limited. Influenced by the international public health events, it is expected that the price of the phthalic anhydride Market will rise heavily in the later stage, and will still fall.

On March 24, the rare earth index was 342 points, unchanged from yesterday, 65.80% lower than the highest point in the cycle, 1000 points (2011-12-06), and 26.20% higher than the lowest point, 271 point, on September 13, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-12-01 to now).

The average price of neodymium, dysprosium and praseodymium is 377500 yuan / ton, 2325000 yuan / ton and 645000 yuan / ton respectively. In rare earth oxides, the average price of praseodymium neodymium oxide is 272000 yuan / ton; that of dysprosium oxide is 15000 yuan / ton to 1870000 yuan / ton; that of praseodymium oxide is 320000 yuan / ton; and that of neodymium oxide is 291500 yuan / ton. The price of praseodymium neodymium alloy in rare earth alloy is 343500 yuan / ton, and the average price of dysprosium ferroalloy is decreased by 20000 yuan / ton to 1.83 million yuan / ton.

The price trend of heavy and rare earth in the rare earth market has fallen, the supply of domestic heavy and rare earth market has increased, and the import source of heavy and rare earth is tight. Myanmar has unilaterally closed the customs clearance port, but the domestic manufacturers continue to resume work, the domestic supply has increased, and the price trend of domestic heavy and rare earth has slightly dropped. In the near future, permanent magnet demand is normal, market trend of praseodymium and neodymium series products is mainly low, on-site supply is normal, light rare earth demand is general in the near future, and some market prices are slightly down. The price fluctuation of rare earth market is related to the national environmental protection supervision. Rare earth production has particularity, especially some products have radiation hazards, which makes the environmental protection supervision more strict. Under the strict inspection of environmental protection, the manufacturer reasonably controls the sales, but the downstream demand has not changed much in the near future, and the price trend of most rare earths is mainly stable.

According to the Ministry of industry and information technology and other documents, by 2025, the sales of new energy vehicles will account for about 25%. Global electrification is stepping into the acceleration period of high-quality models at the supply side. China’s double point policy and European carbon emission requirements have established a long-term development mechanism for new energy vehicles. Driven by national policies, the supply and demand pattern of rare earth industry is expected to further improve, domestic demand in China has improved, and the price of heavy rare earth in domestic rare earth market remains high. Recently, the Ministry of natural resources and the Ministry of industry and information technology issued the notice on the issuance of the total amount control index (the first batch) for the exploitation of rare earth ores and tungsten ores in 2020, which clarified that the total amount control index for the exploitation of the first batch of rare earth ores (rare earth oxide REO) in China is 66000 tons, and the total amount control index for the exploitation of tungsten concentrate (65% of tungsten trioxide) is 52500 tons. The national policy is conducive to the balance of supply and demand of rare earth industry. In the near future, the market supply of heavy rare earth has increased, and the market price has dropped slightly.

Rare earth analysts of business agency expect the supply of domestic heavy rare earth market to increase in the near future, but Myanmar’s rare earth export is prohibited, and the rare earth market is still expected to decline, but most of the product prices are stable.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, on March 19, the domestic phosphorus ore market operated in a small fluctuation. Based on several sample areas, the reference price of 30% grade phosphorus ore at the initial high end was around 330-440 yuan / ton.

2、 Market analysis

Product: this week, the phosphorus ore market fluctuated slightly, and the overall stable operation is the main factor. At present, the phosphorus ore market in Guizhou has basically recovered, but the operating rate of production enterprises is not high, and low and medium load production is mainly for self use. At present, Guizhou Province: Guizhou Fuquan Huifa Mining Co., Ltd. offers 360 yuan / ton of 30% phosphate rock cargo plant, 20 yuan / ton back compared with last week; 28% grade phosphate rock cargo plant offers 320 yuan / ton, 20 yuan / ton back compared with last week; Guizhou Kaiyang Guanglong Mining Co., Ltd. offers 330 yuan / ton platform price of 30% phosphate rock Kaiyang railway station, maintaining stability; Guizhou Qidu Tiancheng Mining Co., Ltd. offers 140 yuan / ton platform price of 22% grade phosphate rock, maintaining stability. Hubei area: the factory quotation of 30% grade phosphate ore in Liushugou, Hubei Province is 440 yuan / ton, and that of 28% grade phosphate ore is 390 yuan / ton. Sichuan region: Mabian district price of 26% high magnesium phosphate rock of Sichuan Mabian hengyetong Mining Co., Ltd. is 240 yuan / ton. Yunnan area: 28% grade ammonium phosphate ore main plate price reference 275 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: at present, the yellow phosphorus market continues to be dominated by weak consolidation operation, with general on-site trading. The factory acceptance of net phosphorus in Yunnan Province is about 16800-17100 yuan / ton, including the latest quotation of 17000 yuan / ton for Yunnan Pingbian yellow phosphorus plant. Phosphoric acid market quotation slightly fluctuated and adjusted, and there may be a downward trend of focus in recent days.

3、 Future forecast

According to the analysis of the data division of the business association, although the operating rates of yellow phosphorus and phosphoric acid in the downstream of phosphate rock have increased, the overall market demand has not been effectively improved yet, so it is expected that the phosphate ore market will remain weak and stable in recent days.

1、 Price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the ex factory price of octanol in Shandong fell this week. This week, the average ex factory price of main octanol in Shandong fell from 6067.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 5800.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, down 4.40%, down 25.16% compared with the same period last year. Overall, octanol fell this week, with the March 20 octanol commodity index at 42.65.

2、 Market analysis

（1） Products:

At present, the operating rate of domestic octanol plant is acceptable; Hualu Hengsheng’s 80000 T / a octanol plant is operating normally, and this week’s offer is firm; the annual capacity of Jiangsu Huachang Chemical octanol plant is 80000 tons, and there is no maintenance plan.

This week, the factory quotation of the mainstream octanol manufacturers in Shandong Province fell: the quotation of octanol of Jianlan Chemical Co., Ltd. at the end of this week was 5800 yuan / ton, down 300 yuan / ton compared with that at the beginning of this week; the quotation of octanol of lihuayi Co., Ltd. at the end of this week was 5800 yuan / ton, down 200 yuan / ton compared with that at the beginning of this week; the quotation of octanol of hualuhengsheng Co., Ltd. at the end of this week was 5800 yuan / ton, down 300 yuan / ton compared with that at the beginning of this week

（2） Industrial chain:

Upstream raw material Market: propylene market fell this week. The quotation dropped from 6800.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 5731.82 yuan / ton at the end of the week, down 4.83%, down 21.44% year on year. The price of raw materials in the upstream market fell, affected by the supply and demand, which had a negative impact on the price of octanol.

Downstream market: DOP factory price fell this week. DOP’s quotation dropped from 7033.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 6666.67 yuan / ton at the end of the week, down 1.96%, down 18.70% year on year. Downstream customers are less active in purchasing octanol, and the demand for octanol is general. The decline of DOP price has a negative impact on octanol market. The aftermarket operators mostly wait and see the trend of DOP.

3、 Future forecast

In late March, the trend of Shandong octanol market may fluctuate slightly. The upstream propylene price fell, the cost support was weak, and the downstream procurement enthusiasm was weak. According to the octanol analyst of business agency, the octanol market in Shandong in late March may decline slightly under the influence of supply and demand and raw materials.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of business agency, this week’s domestic soda ash market is mainly stable. The average domestic market price from the beginning of the week to the end of the week in East China is about 1583.33 yuan / ton. On March 19, the commodity index of light soda ash was 81.20, flat with yesterday, down 31.10% from 117.86 (2017-11-21), the highest point in the cycle, and up 28.58% from 63.15, the lowest point on November 18, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

Product: this week, the domestic soda price is basically stable. The weak market of soda ash in Southwest China has been sorted out. The main quotation of light alkali is 1500-1550 yuan / ton, and that of heavy alkali is 1550-1600 yuan / ton. The overall trend of soda ash in East China is temporarily stable. The current mainstream market price of light soda ash is about 1350-1550 yuan / ton, and the mainstream market price of heavy soda ash is 1500-1700 yuan / ton. The downstream is mainly rigid and requires procurement. It is expected that the price of soda ash will be more stable in the short term. In North China, the market price of soda ash in narrow range is about 1570-1600 yuan / ton for light soda ash and 1700-1800 yuan / ton for heavy soda ash. The actual transaction is relatively flexible. It is expected that the market price of soda ash in narrow range will be operated in the short term. The domestic soda ash market trend is stable, and the market fundamentals continue to be weak.

Demand: the domestic soda ash market as a whole keeps stable operation, the phenomenon of supply exceeding demand continues, and the enterprise’s delivery is poor. According to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the 10th week of 2020 (3.9-3.13), there is a total of one rising commodity, three falling commodities and one rising and falling commodity. The main commodities rising were hydrochloric acid (1.37%); the main commodities falling were caustic soda (- 4.98%), calcium carbide (- 0.36%), PVC (- 0.20%). This week’s average was – 0.83%.

3、 Future forecast

According to the soda ash analyst of the business association, the support of soda ash demand is still weak, the overall market trading is poor, the enterprises mainly ship at stable prices, the demand performance is average, and the market transaction is flat. It is comprehensively expected that the soda ash market will still maintain weak and stable market operation next week. See the downstream market demand for details.

1、 Price trend of epichlorohydrin:

(Figure: P value curve of epichlorohydrin product)

2、 Market analysis:

Product: epichlorohydrin market fell this week, according to the data in the large list of business agencies. The inventory of epichlorohydrin manufacturers was under pressure, the downstream demand did not improve significantly, the contradiction between supply and demand was prominent, and the market trading atmosphere was light. As of the 15th, the average price of epichlorohydrin enterprises was 9866.67 yuan / ton, down 6.03% compared with the beginning of the week and 30.35% compared with January 1st. On the 15th, the main quotation of epichlorohydrin market in China was about 8900-10000 yuan / ton.

The epichlorohydrin commodity index on March 15 was 69.68, unchanged from yesterday, 47.89% lower than 133.71 (2019-10-29), the highest point in the cycle, and 48.73% higher than 46.85, the lowest point on September 7, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

Industry chain: the market price of propylene in Shandong region in the upstream (3.9-3.13) fell by 6.60% this week. On the 13th, the market turnover was 6100-6650 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price was 6100-6150 yuan / ton. Influenced by the OPEC meeting a few days ago, international crude oil plummeted continuously. Influenced by the hope of economic stimulus plan and the reduction of US producers’ spending on the 10th, American crude oil jumped 8% again. On the 11th, international crude oil fell slightly, and on the 12th, crude oil fell sharply again. Due to the low production and inventory before propylene, the decline in the early stage is not significant, but the crude oil price fluctuates greatly. It is expected that the propylene price will be affected by crude oil in the later stage, showing a significant downward trend. On the 13th, the price of downstream epoxy resin and dual raw materials fell, the cost side was insufficient, the terminal demand was light, and the buyer’s follow-up was limited.

3、 Future forecast:

According to the epichlorohydrin analysts of the business club, the price of raw propylene is weak in the near future, and the transaction in the downstream epoxy resin market is light. It is expected that in the short term, the epichlorohydrin market will be mainly consolidated and operated, and more attention should be paid to the cost and demand information guidance.

According to statistics, the price trend of domestic ammonium nitrate this week is temporarily stable. As of the end of the week, the market price of domestic ammonium nitrate is 2380 yuan / ton, which is the same as the price at the beginning of the week, up 17.05% year on year. On March 12, the ammonium nitrate commodity index was 125.26, unchanged from yesterday, a record high in the cycle, 61.90% higher than the lowest point of 77.37 on October 31, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2013-02-01 to now).

This week, the price trend of ammonium nitrate Market in China is temporarily stable. The operation of domestic ammonium nitrate plants is normal. The on-site supply of ammonium nitrate is stable, and the price of manufacturers is mainly stable. In the near future, the on-site supply of goods is normal, but the recent transportation is limited, and the price trend of ammonium nitrate Market is temporarily stable. In the near future, the market of ammonium nitrate manufacturers is general, the downstream is purchased on demand, the domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers are limited to start work, and the market price of ammonium nitrate remains high. Up to now, the negotiation mainstream in Shaanxi is 2300-2400 yuan / ton, that in Shandong is 2400-2500 yuan / ton, and that in Hebei is 2400-2600 yuan / ton.

This week, the price trend of concentrated nitric acid in China was temporarily stable. The weekend price was 1500 yuan / ton. This week, the price trend was stable. Jiangsu Hongze Yinzhu Chemical Co., Ltd. offers 1500 yuan / ton; Anhui Jinhe offers 1450 yuan / ton; Shandong helitai offers 1700 yuan / ton. Anhui Aodeli offers 1550 yuan / ton; Wenshui County synthetic chemical offers 1630 yuan / ton. In the near future, the parking rate of domestic maintenance equipment is relatively high, the supply of concentrated nitric acid market is less, the situation of goods in the field is general, the price trend of nitric acid market is stable, the stable price of nitric acid is the good influence of the market of ammonium nitrate, and the market price of ammonium nitrate remains high.

Since March in the upstream liquid ammonia Market, the domestic liquid ammonia market has continued to rebound, especially in the northern region. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the price of the domestic liquid ammonia market has increased significantly compared with that at the end of February. Since the rebound began in late February, the liquid ammonia market has started to rebound, which experienced a short period of repair. In the week of March 9, the liquid ammonia market has continued to rise, and dealers have adjusted the price range Both frequency and frequency have increased. According to the statistics of the business agency, the increase of liquid ammonia in the first half of the month has exceeded 15%. In particular, prices in Shandong Province led the domestic market up. In the week of the 13th, manufacturers in Shandong and Hebei repeatedly raised their factory prices by 300-400 yuan / ton. Under this market, liquid ammonia has risen by 500 yuan / ton. The overall price of liquid ammonia in the upper reaches of the market has increased substantially, while the price trend of ammonium nitrate Market has been temporarily stable.

In the near future, the downstream demand is limited, but the market price of raw materials continues to rise, which has certain cost support for the market price of ammonium nitrate. Ammonium nitrate analysts of the business association believe that the market price of ammonium nitrate may maintain high volatility in the later period.

1、 Acrylic price trend:

(Figure: p-value curve of acrylic acid product source: Commodity analysis system of Business Club)

2、 Market analysis:

Product: according to the data of the business club’s large list, the average price of acrylic acid enterprises as of March 6 was 7200 yuan / ton, up 0.47% compared with Monday, and down 10% compared with the same period of three months. On June 6, the main price of acrylic acid in China was about 7000-7400 yuan / ton. In the near future, the price of raw material propylene has increased, the cost support has been strengthened, the industry is still at a low level, and the downstream demand is gradually large, and the price of acrylic acid is rising steadily. On June 6, the price of acrylic acid in Wanhua chemical and Petrochemical Co., Ltd. remained stable, mainly for contracts and stable customers. The price of acrylic acid was 7000 yuan / ton.

Industrial chain: the market price of propylene in Shandong region in the upstream rose this week (3.2-3.6). In March, the decline trend of Shandong propylene price in the early stage of reform began. On the first day, the prices of some enterprises rose slightly. On the second day, the prices of the whole line rose slightly. On the third and the fourth day, the prices of most enterprises generally rose. On the fifth day, the prices of some enterprises increased by about 50-100 yuan / ton. On the sixth day, the prices of individual enterprises fluctuated up and down. The current market transactions are still between 6600-6800 yuan / ton, and the mainstream prices are between 6600-6650 yuan / ton.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the list of commodity prices rising and falling in the 9th week of 2020 (3.2-3.6), there are 23 kinds of commodities in the chemical sector, among which there are 2 kinds of commodities with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 2.3% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top 3 commodities are sulfur (8.38%), sulfuric acid (7.78%) and propylene (4.36%). There are 30 commodities with a decline of 5% or more, accounting for 1.1% of the monitored commodities in the sector; the top three products with a decline are epichlorohydrin (- 6.28%), mixed xylene (- 4.46%) and ethanol (- 4.39%). This week’s average was – 0.35%.

3、 Future forecast:

According to the acrylic analyst of the business association, the industry is still at a low level. With the gradual recovery of downstream demand and the increase of just need procurement, it is expected that the acrylic market will stabilize in the short term, with more attention to the change of raw material propylene price.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of business agency, as of March 5, the average price of n-butanol was 5466.67 yuan / ton (including tax). At present, the reference average price is basically the same as that at the end of February (February 29). On March 4, the n-butanol (industrial grade) commodity index was 44.57, unchanged from yesterday, down 55.43% from the cycle’s highest point of 100.00 (2011-10-08), and up 49.11% from the lowest point of 29.89 on November 30, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

Products: since the end of February and the beginning of March, the domestic n-butanol market has been in stable operation for the time being, and the trading atmosphere in the n-butanol market is fair. The downstream users have started to gradually improve, bargain hunting and replenishment, and the factory inventory has been reduced. At present, the market volume in March is not significantly higher than that at the end of February. The new single negotiation is common, and the negotiation atmosphere is flat. The price of core users supplied by mainstream factories is slightly low, and the downstream raw material inventory is slowly digested. There is a lot of pressure on the market to offer at high prices. Up to March 5, the atmosphere of n-butanol market activity is general, supported by costs, and the market is mainly in stable operation. The quotation of n-butanol of Luxi Chemical Industry is stable temporarily, and the reference quotation is about 5500 yuan / ton. The ex factory quotation of Shandong lihuayi n-butanol is temporarily stable, with reference to 5300 yuan / ton; the ex factory quotation of Wanhua chemical n-butanol is 5500 yuan / ton in North China, 5700 yuan / ton in East China and 5850 yuan / ton in South China.

Industry chain: in March, the decline trend of Shandong propylene price in the early stage of the reform began. On the first day, some enterprises’ prices rose slightly. On the second day, the prices rose slightly. On the third day, most enterprises generally rose. On the fourth day, the prices also increased by about 50-100 yuan / ton. At present, the market turnover is between 6600-6700 yuan / ton, and the mainstream prices are around 6600 yuan / ton. At present, crude oil and polypropylene futures are rising and supply is tight, which makes the downstream procurement active. However, the production and inventory of propylene plant are low, and the market supply is short. It is expected that the price of propylene may rise.

3、 Future forecast

According to the analysis of the data analyst of the business agency, the high price negotiation of the n-butanol market is limited at present, and it is expected that the low-end consolidation and operation of the market will be dominated in the short term.