1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of business news agency, the mainstream price of styrene in China stopped falling and rebounded this week, showing an overall upward performance. The price of sample enterprises was 670.000 yuan / ton on Monday (January 25), and 6883.33 yuan / ton on Friday (January 29), with an increase of 2.74%, and a decrease of 4.84% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

Products:

This week, the styrene market rebounded, the overall upward performance. East China on January 25: East China styrene closed at around 6700 yuan / ton. On January 29, East China styrene closed at 6850-6900 yuan / ton, with a slight increase of 150-200 yuan / ton. The above is the can price of Zhangjiagang. On January 25, South China styrene closed at 6900-6950 yuan / ton for delivery, and on January 29, South China styrene closed at 7100 yuan / ton, up by 200 yuan / ton.

Industrial chain:

The trend of international crude oil is basically stable, driving the price of pure benzene and ethylene to run smoothly, and the production cost of styrene remains stable. However, the profit margin of styrene is good, and the cost support is still weak. Downstream PS, EPS prices rose slightly, ABS prices fell slightly. This week, the port inventory continued to show a small accumulation state. With the approaching of the Spring Festival holiday, the downstream factories’ intention of outsourcing gradually weakened, and the market demand showed poor performance. This week, the average operating rate of domestic styrene plants rose to 82.66% from 78.97% last week, up 3.69%. Shengyuan raised the load, Xinpu, Zhejiang Petrochemical and Anqing Petrochemical resumed full load production, and domestic styrene supply is expected to further increase. On the downstream side, although it still maintains considerable profits and some goods are expected to be prepared in the market before the Spring Festival, downstream enterprises mainly digest rigid demand contracts and low orders, and their demand for spot goods is low. In addition, downstream enterprises gradually reduce production before the festival, and there is great uncertainty in returning to the market after the festival, which further weakens the demand for styrene.

3、 Future prospects

On the whole, there is no strong support point in the whole styrene market, and the supply is gradually recovering. The market is willing to replenish goods at falling prices for the holidays, and the current inventory levels of the upstream and downstream are at a low level. It is expected that styrene will be mainly sorted out in a weak shock next week, with the price of 6800-7000 yuan / ton. The market needs to pay close attention to the trend of crude oil price.

1、 Melamine price trend

(Figure: p-value curve of melamine products)

2、 Market analysis

According to the monitoring sample data of the business community, as of January 27, the average quotation price of melamine enterprises was 7033.33 yuan / ton, which was flat compared with the previous trading day, decreased by 3.21% compared with the beginning of the month, and increased by 23.39% year-on-year in a three-month cycle. Recently, the cost support is acceptable, and the manufacturers mainly carry out the early orders. As the terminal factories begin to enter the Spring Festival holiday, coupled with the impact of Limited Logistics and transportation, the demand is gradually weakening, the market trading atmosphere is general, and the market is mainly stable. At present, the mainstream price of melamine in Shandong is around 7000 yuan / ton, the mainstream price of melamine in Xinjiang is around 6300 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of melamine in Sichuan is around 6800 yuan / ton. The quotation is for reference only, and the actual price shall prevail.

Upstream urea, January 27, Shandong urea market temporarily stable. The downstream demand is tightening as a whole. In agriculture, the price of urea is relatively high and the agricultural procurement is cautious. In industry, due to the impact of air pollution control in some areas, plate enterprises shut down, and compound fertilizer enterprises started with general load, so the demand for proper follow-up. On the supply side, the early maintenance units started in succession, and the output increased steadily.

According to the price monitoring of business community, on January 26, 2021, there were 18 kinds of commodities in the list of commodity price rise and fall in the chemical industry sector, including 1 commodity with a rise of more than 5%, accounting for 1.1% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top 3 commodities with a rise were sulfuric acid (8.20%), hydrochloric acid (4.00%) and acetone (3.35%). There were 14 kinds of commodities that declined on a month on month basis, and the top three products were chloroform (- 4.41%), polyaluminum chloride (- 3.17%) and epichlorohydrin (- 3.07%). The average daily rise or fall was 0.06%.

3、 Future forecast

Melamine analysts of business news agency believe that the recent cost side has some support, but the demand side is weakening, and the market atmosphere is light. It is expected that the melamine market will be stable in the short term, and the specific trend needs more attention to the market information guidance.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of business news agency’s block list, the price of pure benzene went down this week. On January 17, the price of pure benzene was 4230-4650 yuan / ton (average price was 4506 yuan / ton); on this Sunday (January 24), the price of pure benzene was 4180-4650 yuan / ton (average price was 4490 yuan / ton), down 16 yuan / ton or 0.36% from last week.

2、 Analysis and comment

This week, Sinopec’s listed price of pure benzene was stable, at 4650 yuan / ton (4500 yuan / ton in parts of North China). During the week, although the news of crude oil and external market was good, the inventory of downstream raw materials was high, and the enthusiasm of stock preparation and purchase was not high; moreover, the spot price of domestic pure benzene fell due to the impact of the low price of northern hydrogenation benzene. On Monday, the total inventory of pure benzene in East China port was about 5000 tons lower than last week. News within the week Brunei Hengyi benzene plant failure, is expected to have a certain impact on later shipping.

In terms of external market, the external market price fluctuated and rose this week. On Friday (January 22), South Korea imported 655.67 US dollars / ton of pure benzene, up 6.34 US dollars / ton or 0.98% compared with January 15; East China imported 651.5 US dollars / ton, up 15.5 US dollars / ton or 2.44% compared with January 15.

In terms of crude oil, this week’s crude oil news guidance is weak, and the market hopes that the new US fiscal stimulus plan will be implemented. Compared with January 15, Brent rose by $0.705/barrel, or 1.29%; WTI fell by $0.15/barrel, or 0.29%.

Downstream: styrene: this week, styrene rose first and then fell, rising overall compared with last week. On Friday (January 22), the price of sample enterprises was 6816.67 yuan / ton, up 116.67 yuan / ton, or 1.74%, compared with last Friday; the price fell 5.76% compared with the same period last year. This week, the supply of imported styrene was obviously less, the accumulated storage of port was slow, the operation rate of domestic styrene rose, and the supply on site was good. On the downstream side, with the downstream plants entering the period of production reduction or shutdown, the demand for styrene tends to shrink. And according to market news, next week, the main port’s arrival volume is around 50000 tons, and the arrival volume is too much. If there is no closure and other accidents, the main port will accumulate again. It is expected that in the short term, the market will once again suppress the profit of styrene production, and styrene may adjust in a weak way

Aniline: some aniline plants have been put into operation at reduced load, market supply and demand are balanced, and aniline prices are mainly stabilized this week. On January 24, the price of aniline was 7800-7900 yuan / ton in Shandong and 8000-8100 yuan / ton in Nanjing.

3、 Future forecast

In terms of crude oil, there is more positive news in the crude oil market, and it is expected that the oil price will continue to fluctuate at a high level next week.

Affected by the public health events and the rain and snow weather in the north, many downstream units are expected to stop, and the demand for pure benzene is weakening. Downstream styrene is expected to continue to decline next week, pure benzene or drag with the fall. However, crude oil, high support outside the market, pure benzene is expected to decline little. Continue to pay attention to the situation of stock preparation and shutdown in the downstream before the festival, as well as the trend of crude oil, external market and styrene.

After the implementation of the “five consecutive rises” of domestic oil product price adjustment, refinery oil product prices rose slightly, but the rise of international crude oil prices was blocked, domestic demand for Spring Festival holidays was not expected to be good, and domestic oil product prices rebounded slightly. According to the monitoring data of business news agency, the price of gasoline on January 22 was 5809 yuan / ton, down 0.35% compared with the beginning of the week; the price of diesel on January 22 was 4817 yuan / ton, down 0.47% compared with the beginning of the week.

Recently, many media or countries have raised the international oil price forecast for 2021, but the IEA lowered the crude oil demand forecast for 2021. The EIA crude oil inventory increased by 4.351 million barrels, which hindered the rising trend of international oil price this week. WTI crude oil price fell by 0.29% and Brent crude oil price rose by 0.56%.

In terms of gasoline demand, the cold weather in winter increased the willingness of automobile travel, and the domestic refined oil price adjustment “five consecutive rises” was implemented, which enhanced the willingness of the terminal transaction of refined oil market. However, the upward trend of international oil price was blocked this week, and the domestic gasoline price was stable and slightly recovered. In terms of diesel demand, affected by the cold weather, the demand for outdoor diesel such as engineering, infrastructure and so on continued to decline However, the overall demand for diesel oil is on the decline. The price of domestic diesel oil market is down steadily

As of January 22, the average start-up load of daily decompression unit is about 74%, and the start-up load of refineries remains at a high level. The supply of domestic refined oil market will continue to maintain an adequate situation.

Lu Xingjun, product oil analyst of business society, believes that the upward trend of international crude oil prices is blocked. Affected by the epidemic situation, domestic demand is expected to cool during the Spring Festival holiday, and product oil prices are expected to continue to callback.

Price trend

According to the data monitoring of the business association, the market of acetic anhydride rose sharply this week. Affected by the shortage of acetic acid raw materials, the price of acetic acid rose sharply, and the price of acetic anhydride rose with it. As of January 22, the price of acetic anhydride was 8100.00 yuan / ton, up 11.21% from 7283.33 yuan / ton at the end of last week.

Acetic acid price trend

As can be seen from the price trend chart of acetic acid, the price of acetic acid rose sharply this week, the cost of acetic acid, the raw material of acetic anhydride, rose, and the driving force of acetic anhydride rise increased. In recent years, acetic acid enterprises stop to reduce the load more, the operating rate of acetic acid is low, the supply of acetic acid is insufficient, the shortage of acetic acid is increasing, the rising power of acetic acid is increasing, and the rising power of acetic anhydride is increasing.

Market summary and future forecast

Bai Jiaxin, acetic anhydride data analyst of business society, believes that due to the impact of the decline in the start-up of acetic acid enterprises, the supply of acetic acid is reduced, and the shortage of acetic acid is serious. This week, the price of acetic acid skyrocketed, the cost of raw materials for acetic anhydride skyrocketed, the price of acetic anhydride skyrocketed, and the driving force for the rise of acetic anhydride increased. At the end of the year, the downstream customers of acetic anhydride started work at a low level, and most of them focused on the production of raw materials in stock, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm was general. Generally speaking, the future acetic anhydride rise momentum is larger, acetic anhydride market rise is the main, but downstream customers are more resistant to high price acetic anhydride, acetic anhydride rise space is limited.

Price trend

According to the data monitoring of the business association, the acetic anhydride market first fell and then rose in January. Affected by the price changes of raw materials, the acetic anhydride price first fell and then rose. As of January 18, the price of acetic anhydride was 7366.67 yuan / ton, a slight decrease of 0.45% compared with 7400.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, and a rise of 2.31% compared with 7200.00 yuan / ton on January 10.

Acetic acid price trend

As can be seen from the price trend chart of acetic acid, the price of acetic acid fluctuated and fell in January, and the acetic acid market remained stable in the middle of January. The price of acetic acid is stable, the cost of raw materials for acetic anhydride is stable, the downward pressure of acetic anhydride is weakened, and the upward momentum still exists. In recent years, acetic acid enterprises stop to reduce the load more, the operating rate of acetic acid is low, the rising power of acetic acid is increased, and the rising power of acetic anhydride is increased in the future.

Methanol price trend

It can be seen from the methanol price trend chart that in January, the methanol price first fell and then rose, the raw material price of acetic anhydride rose, the cost of acetic anhydride rose, and the driving force of acetic anhydride rise increased.

Market summary and future forecast

Bai Jiaxin, an acetic anhydride data analyst at business news agency, believes that the price of acetic acid and methanol rebounded from the bottom in January, the raw material cost of acetic anhydride rose, and the driving force of acetic anhydride rise increased. In recent years, the start-up of acetic acid enterprises is low, the shortage of acetic acid is increasing, and the price of acetic acid is increasing. Generally speaking, the raw material cost of acetic anhydride increases, and the driving force of acetic anhydride’s future rise increases. Acetic anhydride market is expected to rise in the future.

1. Press conference of “opinions of the Ministry of natural resources on several issues of promoting the reform of mineral resources management” held

On January 9, 2020, the Ministry of natural resources of the people’s Republic of China held a press conference on “opinions of the Ministry of natural resources on several issues of promoting the reform of mineral resources management”, and announced at the conference that China will fully open the oil and gas exploration and exploitation market, and allow famous enterprises, foreign-funded enterprises and other social capitals to enter the field of oil and gas exploration and development.

2. New edition of central pricing catalogue released

On March 16, 2020, the national development and Reform Commission issued Order No. 31, announcing the new central pricing catalogue, which will be implemented on May 1, 2020. The new version of the central pricing catalogue highlights the direction of pricing supervision in monopoly links and market-oriented reform in competitive links, and limits the scope of government pricing to important public utilities, public welfare services and network-based natural monopoly links. For example, according to the reform idea of “opening both ends and controlling the middle”, the price of electricity and natural gas will be changed to “transmission and distribution” and “natural gas” to “oil and gas pipeline transportation”.

3. Energy Law (Draft) released

On April 10, the State Energy Administration issued the announcement on the public solicitation of opinions on the energy law of the people’s Republic of China (Draft), which is widely solicited by the society. The main contents of the energy law (Draft for comments) are as follows: pay equal attention to the development of oil and natural gas on land and at sea, speed up the development of offshore oil and gas fields; take measures to actively and rationally develop natural gas, optimize the utilization structure of natural gas, and increase the proportion of natural gas in primary energy consumption; improve and fair access to power grid, oil and gas pipeline network and other energy transmission network facilities Mechanism, according to law to meet the conditions of energy production, marketing enterprises and other market entities fair, non discriminatory opening. %

4. Implementation Opinions on accelerating the construction of natural gas reserve capacity printed and distributed

On April 14, the national development and Reform Commission and other five ministries and commissions issued the “Implementation Opinions on accelerating the construction of natural gas reserve capacity”. The document pointed out that the overall planning and layout will be strengthened, the annual list of major projects for the construction of gas storage facilities will be formulated and issued, and the provincial special plans for the construction of gas storage facilities will be prepared and issued by all provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities), and the list of gas storage facilities construction projects in the region will be put forward. The task of gas storage of urban gas enterprises is included in the provincial special planning, and the gas storage facilities for supplying cities are built.

5. “2020 energy work guidance” notice issued

On June 22, the State Energy Administration issued a notice on the guiding opinions on energy work in 2020 (hereinafter referred to as the Guiding Opinions). According to the opinions, the main targets for 2020 are predicted to be 193 million tons of oil, 181 billion cubic meters of natural gas and 900 million kilowatts of non fossil power generation. It is required to focus on expanding the four major oil and gas production bases, and promote the rapid development of conventional natural gas production, shale gas and coalbed methane. And start the construction of biogas projects, research and increase policy support to promote the development of biogas industrialization. Establish and improve the comprehensive information monitoring system of the national refining industry, and strive to resolve the risk of refining overcapacity.

6. Notice on strengthening the price supervision of natural gas transmission and distribution issued

On July 3, the national development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and the State Administration of Market Supervision issued the notice on strengthening the supervision of natural gas transmission and distribution prices (hereinafter referred to as the notice), which pointed out that the provincial pipeline transportation prices and urban gas distribution prices should be set reasonably. The price of natural gas transmission and distribution is determined according to the principle of “permitted cost + reasonable income”. According to the guidance on strengthening the supervision of gas distribution price, all localities should formulate gas distribution price management measures and verify the independent gas distribution price. The permitted rate of return should be no more than 7%, and the local government can appropriately reduce it in combination with the actual situation. Encourage all localities to explore the establishment of incentive mechanism to share the interests of pipeline enterprises and users, encourage enterprises to improve operating efficiency and further reduce costs.

7. Requirements for safe transportation of movable LNG tanks on board (Trial)

On July 2, 2020, the requirements for safe transportation of movable LNG tanks on board (Trial Implementation) was officially issued. The whole ship transportation of LNG movable tanks is a new type of business. On the basis of summing up the experience of the pilot work in the early stage, the relevant departments of the Ministry of transport organized the research and drafting of the relevant requirements for the safe transportation of the whole ship carrying liquefied natural gas (LNG) movable tanks. After the revision and improvement, it was officially released after the deliberation of the ministerial meeting.

8. White paper on China’s energy development in the new era released

On December 21, the Information Office of the State Council issued the white paper “China’s energy development in the new era”. The white paper said that China has unswervingly promoted the energy revolution, major changes have taken place in the way of energy production and utilization, and historic achievements have been made in energy development. The structure of energy production and consumption has been continuously optimized, the efficiency of energy utilization has been significantly improved, the conditions for energy use in production and living have been significantly improved, and the ability of energy security has been continuously enhanced, which has provided important support for serving high-quality economic development, winning the battle against poverty, and building a moderately prosperous society in an all-round way.

According to the monitoring data of the business community, affected by the poor demand of the downstream market, the domestic acetic acid market continued to decline. As of January 11, Shandong area was 3850-3950 yuan / ton, Jiangsu area was 3900-4000 yuan / ton, Zhejiang area was 4000-4100 yuan / ton, Henan area was 3500-3550 yuan / ton, Hebei area was 3900-4000 yuan / ton, northwest area was 3350-3500 yuan / ton, South China area was 3850-3950 yuan / ton/ Tons, down 9.54% from the beginning of the month.

Unit capacity (10000 tons / year) unit output (tons / day)

Yankuang Cathay 110 3000

Hualu Hengsheng 50 1400

Yangtze BP 50-1300

Jiangsu Sopu ﹣ 120 ﹣ 3600

Celanese 120 2000

Jiantao, Hebei Province

Tianjin Bohua company

Henan Shunda 40 1400

Henan Longyu ﹣ 50 ﹣ 1500

Henan Yima 25 parking

Shaanxi Yanchang 40 normal production

Shanghai Huayi 70-1800

Anhui Huayi 50 1300

Dalian Hengli 35 1300

After new year’s day, the domestic acetic acid market continued to decline. Due to the overall weak demand of the downstream market, the acetic acid market inventory continues to accumulate, and the enterprises continue to reduce the quotation under the pressure of the warehouse. However, there are many sporadic small orders in the downstream market. In addition to the recent rebound of the epidemic in North China, the market purchasing is cautious, and the downward trend of the market is difficult to ease.

The domestic methanol market performed generally, and the prices of the mainland and ports declined. The overall situation of the mainland has declined due to the shrinking olefin procurement in Northwest China and the weak demand in Hebei and Shandong. The blockade of some road sections has affected the flow of goods in some areas of Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi and Shanxi, but the extent of the impact is uncertain. At present, it is about 2270 yuan / ton in Shandong. On the downstream side, the acetate Market is weak, and the overall performance of the manufacturers’ devices is stable. Due to the traditional off-season, the overall turnover of the market is limited, and the acetate Market is weak in a short period of time.

Acetic acid analysts of business society believe that the demand for acetic acid in the downstream market is weak after entering the off-season. After the enterprises with short-term maintenance and stoppage resume production, the situation of oversupply in the market will continue to intensify, and it is difficult to effectively alleviate in a short time. It is expected that the weak operation of acetic acid Market in the near future.

Recently, the domestic butadiene market continued to be weak. According to the sample data monitored by the business agency, the domestic butadiene market price was 7751 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, and 7358 yuan / ton at the end of the week. The price fell by 5.06% in the week, 25.17% month on month, and 11.16% year on year.

The domestic butadiene market is weak and downward. With the gradual release of production after the restart of some domestic units, the market supply side increases significantly, the external price continues to decline and the supply pressure still exists. After the festival, the butadiene market is weak and downward obviously due to the drag of supply side. At the beginning of the week, the supply price of Sinopec, the main producer, continued to decline. Although some of the downstream areas in the North digested the spot goods, under the influence of abundant supply and short market expectation in the later stage, the bearish atmosphere of the market continued to spread in the middle of the week, and some of the markets were on the lookout. From time to time, news of low prices came out, further suppressing the market.

In terms of enterprises, Sinopec’s butadiene price was reduced by 500 yuan / ton in the supply cycle, and 7500 yuan / ton was implemented since January 5; North Huajin’s online bidding for export on Monday and Thursday showed that the total trading volume in the week was 130 tons, and the base price of bidding was 7110 yuan / ton as of January 7; Shenhua Ningmei’s normal export price was 6850 yuan / ton as of January 7, with a month on month decrease of 100% At the end of December, the 100000 t / a oxidative dehydrogenation unit of Jiangsu sierpang was restarted, and now it is in stable operation, and some of them are exported from stock; the 120000 T / a extraction unit of Bora Petrochemical is in stable operation, and the 104 t supply was sold through online auction on January 4, with the transaction price at 7433 yuan / T.

The external supply price of butadiene of main production enterprises is as follows:

Enterprise, price (yuan / ton), plant dynamic

The butadiene plant of Liaoyang Petrochemical Co., Ltd. with a capacity of 73.203 million tons / year has been in stable operation, and a small amount of goods are exported

Dalian Hengli 7160 normal export

Liaotong Chemical Co., Ltd

Fushun Petrochemical Co., Ltd. / self use and interaction of goods, no export plan for the time being

Inner Mongolia Jiutai 710007000t / a butadiene oxidative dehydrogenation unit operates normally

External market: as of the close on January 7, the external price of butadiene in Asia fell: FOB Korea closed at 955-965 US dollars / ton, down 40 US dollars / ton; CFR China closed at 935-945 US dollars / ton, down 10 US dollars / ton. The external price of butadiene in Europe was stable: FOB Rotterdam closed at 895-905 USD / ton; FD closed at 765-775 EUR / ton in northwest Europe.

In the future, under the production release of some domestic units and the restart expectation of South Korean units, the merchants’ expectation of the supply side of butadiene market in the later period is short. Although the external news such as Tianjiao futures and crude oil has a certain boost, and the start-up of synthetic rubber unit is acceptable, the supply side of butadiene market is under obvious pressure, and the market continues to fall, leading to the wait-and-see decline of downstream, and there is no obvious sudden change at the moment Under the good news, business community butadiene analysts expect that the downward trend of domestic butadiene market in the short term is difficult to change.

Just stepping into 2021, propane rose broadly to welcome a “good start”. The average price of propane increased by RMB 41550 yuan / ton on December 26, compared with the average price on December 16. As of January 5, the market prices of propane in China are as follows:

Regional specifications January 5

Propane in East China,% (V / V) not less than: 95 4650-4750 yuan / ton

In North China,% (V / V) is not less than 95.4750-4950 yuan / ton

In Shandong Province,% (V / V) propane is not less than 95 4700-4900 yuan / ton

In South China,% (V / V) is not less than: 95 4550-5430 yuan / ton

Propane in Central China,% (V / V) not less than: 95 4500-5056 yuan / ton

In Northeast China,% (V / V) is not less than: 95 4850-4950 yuan / ton

On December 31, with the introduction of Saudi Aramco’s CP price in January, propane butane soared, bringing obvious benefits to the market. During the holidays, refineries continuously increased the ex factory prices in a wide range, among which the northern market rose significantly, with the increase range of 450-700 yuan / ton during the holidays. The southern market also increased, with a smaller range than the northern market. After the end of the holiday, the market still maintained a rising trend and the range of price increase narrowed. At present, the price is pushing up too fast, and the lower reaches are against the high price. The enthusiasm for entering the market is general, but there is still demand for replenishment. The mentality of manufacturers is mainly firm.

In January, Saudi Aramco CP announced that there were all increases in propane and butane. Propane was US $550 / T, up US $100 / T from last month; butane was US $530 / T, up US $70 / T from last month.

At present, the high cost of imported gas gives obvious support to the market, and affected by seasonal factors, the downstream inventory and replenishment is just needed, the market transaction atmosphere is good, the inventory of manufacturers is controllable, and the mentality is firm. However, the weakness of international oil prices has brought some constraints to the market, and the increase has narrowed after the festival. At present, the price has risen to a relatively high level. It is expected that the increase will be limited in the short term, or it will be stable.