The domestic fluorite price trend rose in October, with an average price of 3512.5 yuan/ton as of the end of the month, an increase of 3.88% from the beginning price of 3381.25 yuan/ton, and a year-on-year decrease of 6.64%.

Supply side: Limited mining operations and tight availability of fluorite in stock

The current situation of the game in the domestic fluorite industry still exists. Overall, the operating rate of enterprises has not changed much. Upstream mining is tight, backward mines will continue to be eliminated, and new mines will be added. Mineral investigation work is still facing many difficulties. In addition, national departments need to rectify fluorite mines, and fluorite mining enterprises are facing increasingly strict safety and environmental protection requirements. Although the rectification action is coming to an end, the affected area has not narrowed. The difficulty of fluorite mining operation has increased, and the shortage of raw materials has limited the operation of fluorite enterprises. The supply of fluorite sources is still tight, and the inventory of fluorite enterprises is low. Recently, the fluorite market has risen. With the shortage of supply and the winter storage season, the atmosphere of factory price increases is strong, and the fluorite price.

Demand side: Hydrofluoric acid price increase helps refrigerant market rise

The pricing of hydrofluoric acid by major domestic manufacturers increased in October, and the mainstream price for hydrofluoric acid in various regions of China was negotiated at 10600-11200 yuan/ton in October. The downstream hydrofluoric acid equipment is still in shutdown, and there is little change in the spot supply of hydrofluoric acid. Manufacturers mainly purchase hydrofluoric acid on demand, and more than 50% of hydrofluoric acid production has started. The pricing of hydrofluoric acid major factories has increased, which is a positive support for the domestic fluorite market. Fluorite prices rose in October.

The downstream refrigerant market is on the rise, and refrigerants continue to go out of storage within the year. Fluorine chemical companies within quota control have strong confidence in maintaining stable prices in the refrigerant market. Currently, prices in the foreign trade market are gradually increasing, and upstream products are mainly purchased on demand. The market for some refrigerant products has risen, which has led to a rise in the fluorite market in October.

In addition to the traditional demand in the refrigerant industry, fluorite, as an important mineral raw material for modern industry, is constantly developing in emerging fields. It is also applied in strategic emerging industries such as new energy and new materials, as well as defense and nuclear industries, including lithium hexafluorophosphate, PVDF, graphite negative electrode, photovoltaic panel, etc. With the demand driven by new energy and semiconductor fields, fluorite applications have received certain support, and the fluorite market still has support.

Market forecast: In the near future, it is difficult to improve the supply of domestic fluorite mines, and some mines have stopped production and undergone safety inspections. The tight supply of fluorite mines is a major positive support for the fluorite market. Recently, the downstream refrigerant product market has risen, and coupled with the rise in downstream hydrofluoric acid market, favorable factors support the rise in fluorite market prices in November.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic price of sodium metabisulfite has fallen this week. The average price of industrial grade sodium metabisulfite at the beginning of the week was 1916 yuan/ton, and the average price over the weekend was 1910 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.35% during the week.

This week, the domestic market price of industrial grade sodium metabisulfite fell. The upstream soda ash price of sodium metabisulfite remained stable this week, with sulfur prices rising by 0.91% and downstream caprolactam prices falling by 0.84%. Sales of sodium metabisulfite were mainly based on orders, with light transactions. (The above prices refer to the quotes provided by mainstream domestic enterprises, and some unreported enterprises are temporarily not within their scope. The prices are for reference only and are not related to the final pricing of the manufacturers. For details, please contact each manufacturer for consultation.).

Future forecast

At present, the transaction volume of sodium metabisulfite market is weak, and it is expected that the domestic market price will mainly fluctuate and weaken in the short term.

The nickel price trend continued to decline this week (10.19-10.25), with weak demand and continued oversupply of nickel. According to the monitoring of nickel prices by Shengyi Society, as of October 25th, spot nickel was reported at 127266 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 1.62%.

Macro wise: After China launched its most aggressive economic stimulus plan since 2020, the trend of base metals rebounded briefly, but then fluctuated and fell back as demand concerns continued. The uncertainty of the US presidential election has also raised concerns about the demand outlook, with nickel prices continuing to fluctuate weakly.

On the supply side, foreign inventory is still showing an upward trend, price pressure is still present, and the number of domestic goods that meet delivery quality has decreased. As of October 25th, Shanghai nickel inventory was 28008 tons, a decrease of 897 tons from last Friday; On October 25th, LME nickel inventory was 135522 tons, an increase of 1152 tons from last Friday.

In terms of demand: The overall market situation is average, with some first-time buyers purchasing in moderation at low prices. As there is already a certain amount of reserve inventory in the early stage, the actual increase in shipment quantity is limited. Some merchants have expressed that downstream customers will be cautious. Boosted by favorable economic policies, on October 25th, the benchmark price of stainless steel plates in Shengyi Society was 12778.57 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.59% compared to the beginning of this month. However, the inventory pressure has not improved, and the company continues to self regulate and control production, operating weakly.

Market forecast: The trend of strong supply and weak demand in the upstream and downstream continues, and overall confidence is still insufficient. We look forward to macroeconomic positive news to boost, and it is expected that nickel prices will remain weak and consolidate in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from October 14th to 18th, the domestic aggregated MDI market price remained stable at 17283 yuan/ton, with no fluctuations during the period and a year-on-year increase of 19.37%. During the week, the domestic aggregated MDI market was operating strongly, with tight supply and scarce supply. Downstream demand entered the market, and aggregated MDI remained stable at a high level.

On the supply side, some devices have stopped, resulting in tight product supply and delayed delivery. Domestic supply remains tight, and manufacturers mainly fulfill orders from old customers.

On the cost side, raw material pure benzene: Recently, the pure benzene market has continued to decline. As of October 18th, the benchmark price of pure benzene in Shengyi Society is 7525 yuan/ton. Raw material aniline: Currently, the domestic aniline market is stable after rising. As of October 18th, the benchmark price of aniline in Shengyi Society is 10700 yuan/ton. The overall impact of aggregating MDI costs is relatively small.

On the demand side, the demand remains stable and follows up, with many inquiries and some models being out of stock.

Future forecast: The current MDI export market demand is stable, domestic inventory remains low, and the supply-demand situation will continue for a period of time. It is expected that the aggregated MDI market will operate strongly in the short term.

Ethylene glycol prices rise in October

The price of ethylene glycol rose in October. According to data from Shengyi Society, as of October 12th, the average price of domestic oil to ethylene glycol was 4741.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.79% from September 26th.

On October 11, 2024, the operating price of ethylene glycol at the port was 4780-4830 yuan/ton, and the basis of spot contracts fell within the day. This week, the basis fell to+45 to+48; In October, the base price will be quoted at+50 to+55 yuan/ton; The base price for November is+49 to+52 yuan/ton.

On October 11th, the price of coal to ethylene glycol remained stable, with prices in the northwest region ranging from 4230-4350 yuan/ton, including taxes.

On October 12, 2024, the external price of ethylene glycol was as follows: the landed price in China was $572/ton, and the landed price in Southeast Asia was $568/ton.

Overview of Ethylene Glycol Fundamentals

Supply side: With the price recovery, the total operating rate of domestic ethylene glycol has begun to rise, and the production of domestic ethylene glycol has also rebounded, and there is still a significant expectation of increase in the later stage. However, the explicit inventory data of ethylene glycol in ports is relatively low. As of October 10, 2024, the total inventory of ethylene glycol in major ports in East China was 530000 tons, which is at a low level for the year. In the recent news, the number of offshore bidding goods has increased, the supply of goods from Taiwan, China Province, Malaysia has been sold, the supply of goods from South Korea will also be opened, and the short-term arrival is expected to increase. The overseas 360000 ton plant in the United States is restarting, and there are expectations of supply growth in the future.

Demand side: Downstream polyester load is relatively high, but polyester production and sales performance is poor after the holiday. The follow-up of terminal demand is weak, and there is little hope for further demand growth.

Future expectations

The recent surge in ethylene glycol prices is mainly due to favorable domestic macroeconomic conditions, coupled with low port supply; In addition, the resonance of rising prices in the polyester sector has caused the price of ethylene glycol to climb to a high level for the year.

The price surged in the short term, with trading prices fluctuating at high levels this week, and the price center fell back on Thursday. At present, there is a strong wait-and-see sentiment in the market. It is reported that a certain domestic trading company has completed high-level hedging and mainly shipped on a basis basis. The overall market trading sentiment was light in the second half of the week.

Given that the current price of ethylene glycol is at a high level, the upward space has narrowed, and the future market is cautiously optimistic, we will observe changes in international crude oil prices. If the market lacks new positive news to boost it, we cannot rule out the possibility of a downward correction.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic aggregated MDI market stopped falling and rose in September. From September 1st to 30th, the domestic market price of aggregated MDI increased from 17300 yuan/ton to 18083 yuan/ton, with a monthly price increase of 4.83% and a year-on-year price increase of 9.6%.

In the first half of the month, the domestic price of aggregated MDI continued to decline, and the supply of suppliers was tight, leading to an increased reluctance to sell and downstream urgent procurement.

In mid to late September, a large northern manufacturer’s aggregated MDI distribution channel sold out its planned supply for the first ten days of September. In addition, due to the impact of the European floods, the export plan was adjusted, and the supply of aggregated MDI distribution spot by a large northern manufacturer was reduced. In September, the distribution channel stopped accepting orders, and there was no stock available in the market.

Due to the impact of natural disasters on the supply side, the raw material aniline plant is experiencing force majeure, resulting in reduced load operation of the MDI plant. BASF’s 400000 ton MDI plant in Chongqing unexpectedly shut down, expected to last for about 10 days, and the supply side remains tight.

On the cost side, raw material pure benzene: The domestic pure benzene market is fluctuating upwards. As of September 30th, the benchmark price of pure benzene in Shengyi Society is 8193 yuan/ton. Raw material aniline: The domestic aniline market has fluctuated and fallen. As of September 30th, the benchmark price of aniline in Shengyi Society is 10062 yuan/ton. The cost support for aggregated MDI is weak.

On the demand side, downstream demand remains high and demand follows smoothly. Boosted by news, downstream buying sentiment is strong, and actual transactions remain at the previous level.

In the future forecast, downstream pre holiday stocking is basically completed, and enterprises that reduce production due to parking in the future will gradually return to normal. It is expected that the market will maintain a tight supply situation in the short term, and the aggregated MDI market will operate relatively strongly.