1、 Price trend of sodium metabisulfite in China

According to the monitoring of the business agency, the domestic sodium metabisulfite price remained stable this week, with an average price of 1750.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 1750.00 yuan / ton at the weekend, with a rise and fall range of 0.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the domestic market price of sodium metabisulfite continued to move forward steadily, with the market price range of industrial sodium pyrosulfite ranging from 1650 to 1800 yuan / ton, and most of the prices were concentrated in 1700-1750 yuan / ton. The production of the enterprise is stable, and the inventory is maintained at about 30%. The enterprise mainly completes the orders of old customers, but the increase of new orders is limited. (the above prices all refer to the external quotation of domestic mainstream enterprises, and some unreported enterprises are not included in the scope temporarily. The prices are for reference only and have nothing to do with the final pricing of manufacturers. Please contact all manufacturers for details.).

Since the beginning of November, the price of domestic soda ash has fallen sharply by 14.29%, the price of sulfur has increased slightly by 1.77%, the raw material cost of sodium metabisulfite has continued to fall, and the market price of sodium pyrosulfite will be adjusted under pressure.

3、 Future forecast

Business agency analysts believe that soda ash prices continue to fall, sodium metabisulfite raw material costs slightly lower, domestic sodium metabisulfite market price will be adjusted in December.

1、 Market price trend chart of paraformaldehyde

Polyoxymethylene price curve

(photo source: Commodity analysis system of Business Club)

According to the monitoring of the business agency, the average price of paraformaldehyde was 4700 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 4833 yuan / ton at the weekend, with the quotation rising by 2.84%.

2、 Market analysis

Shandong aldehyde Chemical Industry Co., Ltd., with an annual output of 30000 tons of paraformaldehyde, Polyoxymethylene (96) ex factory, including tax, quoted 4800 yuan / ton, an increase of 100 yuan / ton compared with last week. Linyi Shengyang Chemical Co., Ltd., with an annual output of 9000 tons of paraformaldehyde, Polyoxymethylene (96) ex factory, including tax, quoted 4700-4800 yuan / ton, which was 100-200 yuan / ton higher than last week. Zibo Qixing Chemical Technology Co., Ltd., with an annual output of 10000 tons of paraformaldehyde, Polyoxymethylene (96) ex factory, including tax, quoted 5000 yuan / ton, which was 200 yuan / ton higher than last week. The supply of paraformaldehyde products is tight and the market demand is good, which supports the price rise.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, at the beginning of this week, the average price of methanol producers in Shandong was 2122 yuan / ton, which was 2117 yuan / ton at the end of this week, down 0.24%. In early November, the average price of methanol was 1882 yuan / ton, which was 2117 yuan / ton on November 20, up 12.48%.

3、 Future forecast

POM analysts believe: downstream goods are better, paraformaldehyde may rise.

According to statistics, the price trend of domestic ammonium nitrate remained high this week. As of the end of the week, the domestic market price of ammonium nitrate was 2900 yuan / ton, which was equal to 2900 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, with a year-on-year increase of 26.09%. On November 20, the commodity index of ammonium nitrate was 152.63, which was the same as yesterday, reaching a record high in the cycle, up 97.27% from the lowest point of 77.37 on October 31, 2016. (Note: period refers to 2013-02-01 to now).

This week, the price trend of domestic ammonium nitrate Market maintained a high level. Domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers started operation normally, and the supply of ammonium nitrate in the field was tight. Some manufacturers reported that the situation of goods taking was improved, and the price trend of manufacturers remained high. Recently, the supply of on-site goods was tight, the transportation was normal, and the market price of ammonium nitrate remained high. Recently, the shipment market of ammonium nitrate manufacturers is normal, downstream procurement is on demand, domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers start normal operation, and some manufacturers’ prices have increased slightly. Up to now, the mainstream of negotiation in Shaanxi is 2600-2800 yuan / ton, that in Shandong is 2500-2600 yuan / ton, and that in Hebei is 3000-3300 yuan / ton.

This week, the domestic price of concentrated nitric acid rose, with the weekend price of 1800 yuan / ton, which rose by 11.34%, Jiangsu Hongze Yinzhu chemical quoted 1900 yuan / ton, Anhui Jinhe quoted 1900 yuan / ton, Shandong helitai quoted 1900 yuan / ton. The quotation of Wenshui synthetic chemical industry is 1530 yuan / ton. In recent years, the domestic maintenance units have been running normally, the supply of concentrated nitric acid market is normal, and the on-site goods taking situation has improved. The price trend of nitric acid in the field has risen sharply. The high price of nitric acid is a good support for the market of ammonium nitrate, and the price trend of ammonium nitrate market remains high.

The price of upstream liquid ammonia rose this week, with the weekend price of 3050 yuan / ton, up 3.04% compared with 2960 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week. The liquid ammonia plant started normal operation, the spot supply was slightly tight, and the price trend of liquid ammonia market rose sharply. From the basic point of view, the supply and demand of liquid ammonia market is mainly balanced, and some manufacturers’ devices are running stably. It is expected that the ammonia supply will be balanced in the short term. Therefore, it is expected that the price trend of domestic liquid ammonia market will rise in the near future. Due to the production restriction in some regions such as Shanxi, the operating rate will drop, and the supply will bring some support. From the downstream point of view, in the current off-season of agricultural fertilizer, the terminal does not take delivery of goods, and there is no market in many places, which makes the rising trend of liquid ammonia difficult to maintain. The upstream prices have risen this week, and the market price trend of ammonium nitrate remains high.

Recently, the demand of the downstream civil explosive industry is normal, and the production and sales of nitro compound fertilizer are normal, and the price trend of raw material market is rising. However, the spot supply of ammonium nitrate is generally, which has a certain positive support for the ammonium nitrate Market. The ammonium nitrate analysts of the business community believe that the market price of ammonium nitrate may maintain a high level in the future.

Last week (11.9-13), the domestic polysilicon price continued its recent downward trend, with domestic market and imported material prices falling to varying degrees. According to the monitoring of the business agency, polysilicon fell by 1.48% this week. The main reason is that with the increase of enterprise operating rate, the supply has changed into a loose pattern, but the demand has not increased significantly.

In the early stage of last week, the market trend of polycrystalline silicon continued in November. In terms of supply, at present, the operating rate of domestic polysilicon manufacturers has rebounded. Up to now, about 11 domestic polysilicon manufacturers have maintained about 3 maintenance or load reduction start-up. As of November 13 last week, another device has entered the maintenance period, and the market has not realized the supply change. Most of the enterprises in the lower reaches sign orders in recent 12 months, but the number of orders signed by most of the enterprises in the lower reaches of Xinjiang has gradually increased compared with the situation of large enterprises signing orders in the early stage. However, the number of orders signed by most enterprises in the lower reaches of Xinjiang is still on the high side, and the number of orders signed by most of the enterprises in the lower reaches is still on the high side. This mainly depends on the stability just needed at present. At present, the upstream and downstream enterprises of silicon materials have been in the process of price game, superimposed on the increase of Korean OCI source of goods to Hong Kong, resulting in the supply of both domestic and imported showed a rising trend. Therefore, the price of imported goods has also declined. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the domestic mainstream transaction price of polysilicon is 55000-58000 yuan / ton, and the non China price of polysilicon is 68000-70500 yuan / ton.

In the near future, the supply of polysilicon is relatively abundant, the upstream and downstream inventory is gradually consumed in the price game, the transaction is slightly slowed down in the process of the game, some silicon material enterprises are overstocked, and it is possible to reduce the price to remove inventory. It is expected that polysilicon will inevitably fall into the situation of relative excess supply in the later period, and the price will fall easily but not rise.

Note: the above price is tax inclusive

Price trend

According to the data monitoring of business club, DOP price of plasticizer rose sharply in November, and DOP price entered 8 times again. As of November 13, the DOP price was about 8383.33 yuan / ton, up 12.53% from 7450.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month (November 1).

Upstream market of industrial chain

As can be seen from the phthalic anhydride trend chart, the phthalic anhydride market rose sharply in November, up 10.35%. At the end of November, the price of phthalic anhydride soared and the cost of DOP rose sharply, which increased the driving force of DOP price rise.

It can be seen from the price trend chart of octanol that the price of octanol rose by 7.20% in November. The price of octanol rose sharply, the cost of DOP rose sharply, and the driving force of DOP increase.

Downstream market of industrial chain

It can be seen from the PVC price trend chart that the PVC price rose sharply in November, the PVC market rose by 6.25%, the PVC market rose and DOP demand rose, which was good for the plasticizer DOP market.

Market review and future expectation

In terms of raw materials and DOP, the raw material price rose sharply in November, DOP, the raw material price rose sharply. In general, DOP cost is rising, demand is rising, DOP price is soaring, and DOP price is expected to continue to rise.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the price of domestic baking soda has declined. On November 9, the average price of the domestic market was 1690 yuan / ton, while on November 8, the average price in the domestic market was 1656.67 yuan / ton, and the price was reduced by 3.8%. On November 8, the bicarbonate commodity index was 116.59, flat with yesterday, 4.18% lower than 121.68 (2020-10-21), and 16.59% higher than 100.00, the lowest point on September 6, 2020. (Note: cycle refers to September 1, 2020 to now)

2、 Market analysis

According to the business club, the price of baking soda is weak. At present, the price of sodium bicarbonate in Henan Province is falling down, and the mainstream market quotation is about 1400-1500 yuan / ton, and the downstream demand is general. It is expected that the price will be slightly consolidated in the near future. The price of sodium bicarbonate in Hebei Province has been lowered, and the mainstream quotation in the market is about 1600-1700 yuan / ton, and the downstream is mostly purchased on demand.

As for raw materials, the domestic soda ash market is temporarily stable, the market atmosphere is light, the downstream manufacturers are cautious and wait-and-see attitude, and it is expected that the weak operation of soda ash in the later stage will be dominated.

In terms of the demand for medicine and baking soda, the demand for textiles and food was weak. According to the analysts of the business agency, the domestic soda ash market is temporarily stabilized, the market atmosphere is light, the downstream manufacturers are cautious and wait-and-see attitude is the main factor, and it is expected that the weak operation of soda ash will be the main trend in the later stage. The price of soda ash in East China has been stable for the time being. The mainstream market price of light soda ash is about 1700-1850 yuan / ton, while that of heavy soda ash is 1850-1950 yuan / ton. The market atmosphere is general. In terms of downstream, the demand for sodium bicarbonate in medicine, textile and food is not strong, and the transaction of sodium bicarbonate is general. It is expected that the price of sodium bicarbonate will be mainly weak and stable in the later stage.

1、 Price trend

The overall performance of PS market is relatively flat. In the general environment of weak demand, the market transaction is general, the downstream factories receive limited goods, the market is mainly wait-and-see, the actual operation is not much, and the trading atmosphere is flat.

2、 Market analysis

PS market trend is stable, Zhanjiang Sino US PS ex factory price, 525 quotation is 8300 yuan / ton. The ex factory price of CITIC Guoan PS is 7950 yuan / T. Dongguan PS (polystyrene) market rose and fell. Cost supply and demand side game, businesses follow the market operation, trading atmosphere is weak.

3、 Future forecast

PS downstream factories continue to purchase on demand, the overall transaction is not ideal. Merchants go with the market, trading slightly discount, PS market is expected to maintain a narrow consolidation pattern.

1、 Price trend

According to the business club’s big list data, the domestic toluene market continued to decline this week, and the decline was larger than last week. As of Friday, the average price in the domestic market was about 3310 yuan / ton, down 2.07% month on month.

2、 Analysis and comment

Affected by the drop in international crude oil prices, toluene prices fell this week. Sinopec’s enterprises in Central China will lower the listed price of toluene by 150 yuan / ton this week. Port inventory is high, and the pressure to go to the warehouse is not reduced. Market oversupply, downstream blending oil and solvent demand is general, price is weak, demand has not improved. At present, the mainstream price in East China is about 3250 yuan / ton. The future market will focus on the upcoming US election, the progress of a new round of economic stimulus plan launched by the United States, fluctuations in the US dollar index and the stock market, the geographical situation in the Middle East, the impact of OPEC + on crude oil supply, the impact of the continued deterioration of overseas epidemic situation on the demand for crude oil, the progress in the research and development of the new coronavirus vaccine, the global economic recovery, and the European and American economic recovery relief plan Progress.

Upstream, in terms of crude oil, the new crown epidemic situation in Europe and the United States has deteriorated sharply once again. Europe has strengthened its blockade and epidemic prevention, and the US stimulus plan negotiation has stalled, which has intensified the market’s worries about the decline in demand. Meanwhile, the active oil drilling platforms in the United States have increased for six weeks, and the crude oil production of OPEC member countries has also increased, which has also depressed the oil market atmosphere. The international oil price remained at the lowest level in five months on Friday. As of Friday, spot Brent fell $5.03/barrel to close at $36.205/barrel, down 12.2% from last week. In October, the international oil price fell for the second consecutive month, the decline was larger than that of the previous month, reaching about 10%, and hitting a new low of four and a half months.

Downstream, TDI continued a small decline trend this week, domestic goods implemented 15000 yuan / ton, Shanghai goods implemented 15500 yuan / ton. Expected short-term TDI market shock finishing. In the domestic and foreign markets, the latest price of Sinopec / CFR is about US $497 / FOB. It is expected that the short-term PX market will continue to decline.

3、 Future forecast

According to toluene analyst of chemical branch of business society: first look at the supply cost side, the implementation of OPEC + production reduction, the total number of American oil wells and EIA, API inventory data. Second, on the demand side, the impact of the worsening global epidemic situation on crude oil demand, the progress of industrial chain recovery, the economic and trade situation of Europe and the United States and the progress of economic recovery and rescue plan. Third, look at the linkage between the US dollar index and the stock market, the progress in the research and development of the new crown vaccine, and the geopolitical situation in the Middle East and China and the United States. Next week, we will focus on the US general election, the progress of a new round of US stimulus measures, and the impact of dollar index and stock market volatility on the trend of crude oil. Overall, it is expected that toluene in the domestic market will fluctuate weakly next week.

Business agency: demand did not pick up, crude oil plummeted, and isomeric xylene fell this week (October 26 – November 1)

1、 Price trend

The domestic xylene market continued its downward trend this week, and the decline was larger than that of last week. As of Friday, the domestic average price was about 3370 yuan / ton, down 2.32% month on month.

2、 Analysis and comment

Xylene prices fell slightly this week. Sinopec’s enterprises in South China and central China will cut the price of xylene by about 100 yuan / ton this week. The port inventory is high. At present, the port inventory in East China is about 140000 tons, with an increase of 6000 tons compared with last week. The pressure to go to the warehouse is not reduced, the price is weak, and the demand has not improved. Market oversupply, downstream Px, gasoline blending demand is general. At present, the mainstream price in East China is about 3380 yuan / ton. The future market will focus on the upcoming US election, the progress of a new round of economic stimulus plan launched by the United States, fluctuations in the US dollar index and the stock market, the geographical situation in the Middle East, the impact of OPEC + on crude oil supply, the impact of the continued deterioration of overseas epidemic situation on the demand for crude oil, the progress in the research and development of the new coronavirus vaccine, the global economic recovery, and the European and American economic recovery relief plan Progress.

Upstream, in terms of crude oil, the new crown epidemic situation in Europe and the United States has deteriorated sharply once again. Europe has strengthened its blockade and epidemic prevention, and the US stimulus plan negotiation has stalled, which has intensified the market’s worries about the decline in demand. Meanwhile, the active oil drilling platforms in the United States have increased for six weeks, and the crude oil production of OPEC member countries has also increased, which has also depressed the oil market atmosphere. The international oil price remained at the lowest level in five months on Friday. As of Friday, spot Brent fell $5.03/barrel to close at $36.205/barrel, down 12.2% from last week. In October, the international oil price fell for the second consecutive month, the decline was larger than that of the previous month, reaching about 10%, and hitting a new low of four and a half months.

Downstream, in terms of PX market, the listed price of Sinopec’s enterprises in China this week was about 4450 yuan / ton, and the latest external price was about 499 US dollars / ton FOB Korea and 517 US dollars / ton CFR China. It is expected that the short-term PX market will continue to decline. In terms of PTA market, the market price has decreased significantly this week. The domestic PTA spot market price is about 3285 yuan / ton, and the external price is about 435 US dollars / ton CFR China. It is expected that PTA price will continue to decline next week. In terms of ox market, Sinopec quoted 4400 yuan / T of o-benzene, and the external price of o-benzene was about 543 USD / T FOB Korea and 570 USD / T CFR China. It is expected that the price of o-benzene will continue a stable trend next week.

3、 Future forecast

Xylene analysts of the chemical branch of the business society think: first look at the supply cost side, the implementation of OPEC + production reduction, the total number of us oil drilling and EIA, API inventory data. Second, on the demand side, the impact of the worsening global epidemic situation on crude oil demand, the progress of industrial chain recovery, the economic and trade situation of Europe and the United States and the progress of economic recovery and rescue plan. Third, look at the linkage between the US dollar index and the stock market, the progress in the research and development of the new crown vaccine, and the geopolitical situation in the Middle East and China and the United States. Next week, we will focus on the US general election, the progress of a new round of US stimulus measures, and the impact of dollar index and stock market volatility on the trend of crude oil. Overall, it is expected that xylene in the domestic market will continue to decline next week.

Commodity index: on October 31, the polyacrylamide commodity index was 87.74, which was the same as yesterday, decreased by 18.10% from 107.13 (May 8, 2019), and increased by 5.85% from the lowest point of 82.89 on August 02, 2020. (Note: cycle refers to the period from April 1, 2019 to now)

The monitoring data showed that the price of polyacrylamide (CPAM, cation, molecular weight 12 million, 10-30 ionic degree) was stable in the last week of October. This month, the manufacturer’s production is normal, the price fluctuation is very small, the demand is not as good as polyaluminum chloride, and the transaction atmosphere is relatively peaceful. Domestic manufacturers of polyacrylamide (CPAM, cation, molecular weight 12 million, 10-30 ionic degree) this week, the quotation range is about 13800-14300 yuan / ton.

Industrial chain: upstream: at the end of August, the mainstream quotation of acrylonitrile was 8450 yuan / ton, at the end of September, it was about 8750 yuan / ton. In October, the quotation of acrylonitrile was raised several times, and the last week was about 9300 yuan / ton. At present, the main domestic manufacturers’ plant status: Fushun Petrochemical’s 92000 T / a acrylonitrile plant was shut down for maintenance on October 17, and it was postponed to the end of the month for restart and recovery. In October, Sinopec implemented 9000 yuan / ton of acrylonitrile settlement price in East China and 9050 yuan / ton in North China. The 260000 T / a acrylonitrile plant of Formosa Plastics Chemical Co., Ltd., located in Mailiao, will maintain full load operation in November. In addition, it is planned to shut down for maintenance for about four weeks from January 8, 2021. Japan Asahi Chemical Co., Ltd. implemented the price of acrylonitrile CP in November at 1300 USD / T. Downstream: in terms of the characteristics of the traditional sales season, the demand for sewage treatment downstream of water treatment should be increased this month. Up to now, the price of polyacrylamide has only increased by about 2% at the end of September. After that, the price has been basically stable, with few increases. This shows that the downstream demand is not as good as expected, but as far as the market is concerned, there are still a few manufacturers due to sales and sales The inventory situation and price have increased to a certain extent, and the relative range is not very large. The market expects that the heating season will come, and the environmental protection requirements will stimulate the demand for polyacrylamide, which will improve in the future.

Industry situation: since 2020, the prosperity of environmental protection water treatment industry has not recovered significantly. During the period from January Spring Festival holiday to February 20, relevant enterprises in main production areas stopped production and delayed to resume work. After February 20, the manufacturers in the main production areas gradually returned to work and production. In March, logistics returned to normal, mainly consumed inventory. In April, the manufacturers survived normally, and the raw material cost was partly reduced and the demand was weak, which led to the high inventory of manufacturers. On May 6, the national high-speed recovery of charges, the price of acrylonitrile and other raw materials rose, the ex factory price of polyacrylamide did not change much, and there were more stocks; with the upstream propylene of acrylonitrile rising in the industrial chain relationship of “propylene PP melt blown cloth mask”, the production capacity of acrylonitrile manufacturers decreased this month, which directly led to the firm price of acrylonitrile. In July, the price of acrylonitrile was sharply reduced, and the cost of polyacrylamide was lowered. Some enterprises lowered the price of their products according to the trend, and then rebounded in the second half of the month. However, the prices of manufacturers did not change significantly. In fact, most manufacturers hoarded raw materials, and the cost of purchasing determined the price and cost. In August, acrylonitrile continued to rebound slightly, and then continued to stabilize. In September, it remained stable after a small shock, and the amplitude of the shock was insignificant, and the demand did not rise significantly. Although the prosperity of the industry increased in October, the price changes of different water treatment products were quite different. The ex factory price of polyaluminum chloride increased by 7% in September and October due to the rising prices of raw materials and fuels. Although the price of polyacrylamide raw materials also increased, the market price of polyaluminum chloride did not rise as much as that of polyaluminum chloride.

Aftermarket forecast: according to the analysis of business agency, due to the influence of market demand and environment, the production and sales of water treatment industry last month were relatively stable, and the price fluctuation was very small, basically close to stable; this month, the traditional golden sales period of “Jinjiu” was undertaken, and the price of polyacrylamide was increased to a certain extent at the end of last month and the beginning of this month. The coming of the follow-up heating season and the requirements of environmental protection and other aspects will continue to affect the market of water treatment products The price of polyacrylamide may rise steadily with some improvement; meanwhile, we should be aware of the impact of strict environmental protection requirements on the market due to the requirement of stopping production and rectification for some manufacturers.