1、 Price trend

Market analysis of potash products

According to the data monitored by the business agency, the average factory price of light potash in China this week is 6325.00 yuan / ton, including tax, which is stable. The current price is 7.50% lower than last year.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Product: this week, the market of potash remained stable, the production of domestic potash chloride in the upstream raw material was normal, the large factory still maintained the early policy of keeping the bottom, and the actual transactions in each region were discussed. There is no supporting role for the price of potash. This week, the market of potash is weak and downward. Generally speaking, the trading atmosphere of potash market is general, the actual trading volume of the market is relatively general, the downstream purchase volume is on the low side for a small amount of replenishment, and the domestic market of potash is volatile and consolidated. According to the statistics of the business agency, the main quotation range of domestic industrial grade potassium carbonate this week is about 6100-6500 yuan / ton (the quotation is only for reference), and the quotation varies according to the purchase situation.

3、 Future forecast

According to potash analysts of the business association, the domestic potash market has maintained a stable situation in the near future, and it is expected that the price of potash will be dominated by weak consolidation in the short term, while the long-term market still needs to wait and see. (the above prices are provided by the major potassium nitrate manufacturers all over the country and analyzed by the potassium carbonate analyst of the business association, for reference only. For more details, please contact the relevant manufacturers for consultation).

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the business club’s large scale list, the domestic xylene market price fell this week and was revised back. As of Friday, the domestic average price was about 3450 yuan / ton, down 7.0% on last week.

2、 Analysis and comment

1. Product: due to the oversupply of international crude oil and the near saturation of storage capacity, the price of oil this week plummeted to the bottom again. For the first time in the contract delivery history of WTI in May, the price of domestic toluene fell this week. At present, the mainstream price in East China is about 3550 yuan / ton.

2. Industrial chain:

Upstream, in terms of crude oil, short-term international crude oil oversupply and storage capacity close to saturation led to another sharp drop in oil prices this week, and WTI fell to a negative range for the first time in the history of contract delivery in May. As of early Friday morning, spot Brent fell 19.09%, Brent futures fell 20.44%, WTI futures fell 34.08% and Dubai futures fell 12.09%.

Downstream, in PX market, this week, the price of domestic Sinopec’s enterprises was about 4300 yuan / ton, and the latest price on the external market was about 445 US dollars / ton for FOB South Korea and 463 US dollars / ton for CFR China. It is expected that the market price of PX will maintain a stable trend in the short term. In terms of PTA market, the price of domestic PTA spot market is about 3200 yuan / ton, and the price of external market is about 406 US dollars / ton CFR China. It is expected that the PTA price trend will be stable next week. In the ox market, Sinopec’s offer of o-benzene is stable, with a price of 4200 yuan / ton. The external price of o-benzene is about 440 US dollars / ton FOB South Korea. It is expected that the price of o-benzene will be stable next week.

3、 Future forecast

According to xylene analyst of business and chemical branch, in the short term, in terms of supply cost, Saudi Arabia and Algeria, the main oil producers of OPEC, said that they began to reduce production before the target date of May 1, and the situation in the US and Iran is tightening, which is favorable for oil price, while the international crude oil supply exceeds the demand, which is negative for oil trend. In the medium term, we can see the demand side, the inflection point of overseas epidemic and the progress of economic restart. Next week, we will focus on the impact of the US Iraq situation on the crude oil market, the trend of international crude oil and the progress of the resumption of construction of domestic downstream enterprises. Overall, it is expected that xylene prices in the domestic market next week will depend on the trend of crude oil.

1、 Price trend

Pure benzene returned to weakness this week, with prices falling in a row in the week, according to data from the business club’s large list. On April 19, the listing price of pure benzene was 3000-3900 yuan / ton (average price: 3350 yuan / ton); this weekend (April 26), the listing price of pure benzene was 3000-3500 yuan / ton (average price: 3170 yuan / ton), down 5.37% compared with last week.

2、 Analysis and comment

1. Product: after two weeks of hoarding, downstream enterprises have sufficient pure benzene inventory, and this week’s pure benzene market negotiation is light. In addition, crude oil plummeted on Tuesday, and the price of external market fell sharply, driving the price of domestic pure benzene down. Since the middle of March, the port inventory of pure benzene has continued to grow, and the source of imported goods has continued to hit the domestic market. Sinopec’s price is at a low level this week, with no price adjustment yet.

3. External market: the external market fluctuated violently this week, plummeted at the beginning of the week, and rebounded sharply in the second half of the week. On Friday (April 24), South Korea imported 331.67 US dollars / ton of pure benzene, down 14 US dollars / ton, or 4.05% from April 17; East China imported 341 US dollars / ton of pure benzene, down 31 US dollars / ton, or 8.33% from April 17.

3. Crude oil: on Monday, the US oil may contract fell to a negative value unprecedented, crude oil inventory grew rapidly, and the lack of remaining storage capacity led to a sharp sell-off in the market. Later, it was reported that many countries issued policies to encourage crude oil production to reduce, and the output decreased, which led to the recovery of oil price, but the increase was not enough to bear the drop. Brent fell $4.13, or 20.51%, this week from April 17, while WTI fell $8.09, or 32.32%. Compared with December 31, 2019, Brent decreased by 76.02% and WTI by 72.12%.

4. Downstream industry: styrene rebounded after a slight decline this week, with a slight decline as a whole. The price in Shandong on Friday was 5000 yuan / ton, down 2.91% from last week.

In the week, the aniline plant was restarted, the market supply increased and the price was lowered twice. Over the weekend, the price in Shandong was 5100 yuan / ton, while that in Nanjing was 5100 yuan / ton, down 7.83% from last week.

3、 Future forecast

1. Crude oil: driven by multi-party production reduction agreements, crude oil reserves may rebound, but in the short term, it can not offset the negative impact of sharp contraction in demand, and the oil market can not get rid of the dilemma of excess supply and demand. In addition, it is the off-season of crude oil consumption, the recovery of the market is blocked greatly, and it is still low in the short term.

Near the end of the month delivery, the pure benzene market may have a certain boost. It is expected that the pure benzene market will maintain weak operation in the short term, with a small rebound potential. Pay attention to the later trend of crude oil and external market.

1、 Price trend

The average price of phosphoric acid in China on April 17 was 5000 yuan / ton, which was flat on the third day of the week (13 days), up 7.76% compared with the same period last year, according to the bulk data list of business agency. On April 19, the phosphoric acid commodity index was 109.29, unchanged from yesterday, down 15.25% from 128.96 (2019-07-25), the highest point in the cycle, and up 19.90% from 91.15, the lowest point on October 13, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

Product: the phosphoric acid market this week is average and the price is stable. At present, the yellow phosphorus at the end of raw material has increased slightly, but has little impact on the phosphoric acid market. At present, due to the impact of special events, the downstream demand is not good, the focus of transaction moves down, and some phosphoric acid enterprises reduce prices and make shipment. According to the monitoring of the business association, as of April 17, the average market price of 85% industrial purified water phosphoric acid was about 5000 yuan / ton, that of Sichuan was about 4700-5100 yuan / ton, that of Hubei was about 5000-5300 yuan / ton, that of Yunnan was about 5200 yuan / ton, that of Beijing was about 5100 yuan / ton, and that of all regions was lowered to varying degrees.

Industry chain: the number of yellow phosphorus enterprises started to increase, and there are many enterprises planned to resume production in the near future. The market of yellow phosphorus in various regions has increased slightly. The enthusiasm of downstream procurement is not high, the wait-and-see mood is obvious, and the mentality of traders is unstable. In April, the domestic phosphate rock market as a whole remained low and stable, and the market was mostly in a state of consolidation. New orders were generally traded in the market, and the on-site construction continued to improve slowly. The overall operation of domestic phosphate ore market has basically recovered as before. Recently, the inquiry of downstream products of phosphate ore has not been significantly improved, and the overall market trend is weak,.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business association, in the 15th week of 2020 (4.13-4.17), there are 38 kinds of commodities rising month by month in the list of commodity prices in the chemical industry sector, among which 14 kinds of commodities rising by more than 5%, accounting for 15.7% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three commodities are acrylic acid (25.40%), maleic anhydride (19.02%) and crude benzene (15.55%). There are 21 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, with 8 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 9% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three products falling are propylene (- 34.79%), propylene oxide (- 13.77%) and propane (- 11.46%). This week’s average was up or down 1.02%.

3、 Future forecast

According to phosphoric acid analyst of Business & Social chemical branch, the raw material end is up slightly at present, but the phosphoric acid market is expected to remain weak and stable in the short term due to the drag of demand.

1、 Price trend of lithium hydroxide:

(Figure: P value curve of lithium hydroxide product)

2、 Market analysis:

Product: lithium hydroxide Market is stable in the near future. The overall environment of lithium salt market is sluggish, the market demand for lithium hydroxide has not changed significantly, new orders are limited, and the focus of market negotiation is temporarily stable. The average price of lithium hydroxide as of April 17 was 57000 yuan / ton, which was the same as that of April 1, according to the data in the bulk list of business agencies. At present, the external price of industrial grade lithium hydroxide of Shanghai Yulun Industrial Co., Ltd. is 58000 yuan / ton, and that of industrial grade lithium hydroxide of Zigong tongfarong Industrial Co., Ltd. is 55000 yuan / ton. At present, the mainstream price of industrial lithium hydroxide Market in China is around 55000-58000 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, on April 16, the average price of industrial lithium carbonate in East China was 43000 yuan / ton, and the average price of battery lithium carbonate in East China was 48000 yuan / ton. Power terminal consumption recovered slowly, demand was lower than expected, manufacturers’ shipment was under pressure, downstream bargaining power was strong, and the recent lithium carbonate market was weak and stable.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, there are 12 kinds of commodities in the rise and fall list of bulk commodity prices on April 16, 2020, among which there are 3 kinds of commodities with an increase rate of more than 5%, accounting for 3.4% of the number of commodities monitored in this sector; the top 3 commodities with an increase rate are crude benzene (15.55%), DOP (6.08%) and acrylic acid (5.80%). There are 10 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, and there are 3 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 3.4% of the number of commodities monitored in this sector; the top 3 products falling are propane (- 7.34%), propylene oxide (- 6.46%) and polysilicon (- 6.13%). The average rise and fall of this day was 0.05%.

3、 Future forecast:

According to the lithium hydroxide analyst of business club, the upstream lithium carbonate market is in weak operation, and the cost is also weakened in the face of lithium hydroxide support. The demand side is relatively general. It is expected that in the short term, the industrial lithium hydroxide Market will be temporarily consolidated, and more attention should be paid to the cost and downstream demand.

1、 Price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the ex factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China fell this week. This week, the average ex factory price of mainstream carbide manufacturers fell from 2646.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 2530.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, down 4.41%, down 19.68% year-on-year from the same period last year. Overall, carbide fell this week, with the carbide commodity index at 66.29 on April 10.

2、 Trend analysis

（1） Products:

The ex factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China fell this week: oveganone’s quotation for calcium carbide at the end of this week was 2620 yuan / ton, down 50 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of this week; Shaanxi coal industry’s quotation for calcium carbide at the end of this week was 2400 yuan / ton, down 150 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of this week; China United Inner Mongolia’s quotation for calcium carbide at the end of this week was 2570 yuan / ton, down 100 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of this week; Xingping Ningxia’s quotation this week The price of calcium carbide is 2400 yuan / ton, which is 200 yuan / ton lower than that at the beginning of the week.

At the end of this week, the actual transaction price of calcium carbide in Northwest China is about 2400-2600 yuan / ton: the mainstream transaction price of calcium carbide in Shaanxi is about 2400-2600 yuan / ton; the mainstream transaction price of calcium carbide in Ningxia is about 2400 yuan / ton; the mainstream transaction price of calcium carbide in Inner Mongolia is about 2550 yuan / ton, and the actual transaction price is mainly negotiated.

（2） Industrial chain:

Upstream raw material Market: the ex factory quotation of Lancan carbon fell this week. Overall, the drop was about 130-150 yuan / ton. At present, the quotation of small materials is 600.00 yuan / ton, that of medium materials is 630 yuan / ton, and that of large materials is 680 yuan / ton. The price of upstream raw materials fell and the cost support was insufficient, which had a negative impact on the price of calcium carbide.

Downstream market: PVC factory price rose this week. PVC price rose from 5412.50 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 5662.50 yuan / ton at the end of the week, up 4.62%, down 16.20% year on year. Although PVC prices rose this week, but the market tends to be low, and the enthusiasm for calcium carbide procurement is also low. As a whole, PVC market this week has a negative impact on calcium carbide prices.

3、 Future forecast

In the middle of April, the market of calcium carbide fluctuated slightly. The price of raw materials in the upstream is low, the cost support is not enough, the price of PVC in the downstream is low, and the procurement enthusiasm of customers in the downstream is low. The future market forecasts that the price of calcium carbide in the northwest region may fall slightly in mid April.

On April 14, the PX commodity index was 34.40, which was the same as yesterday, a record low in the cycle, 66.41% lower than the highest point of 102.40 on February 28, 2013. (Note: cycle refers to 2013-02-01 to now)

According to statistics, the market price trend of p-xylene in China is temporarily stable, the operation of new 600000 ton plant in Hongrun is stable, the operation of petrochemical plant in Pengzhou is stable, 50% of petrochemical plant in Urumqi is started, one line of aromatics plant in Fuhai Chuang is started, CNOOC Huizhou refining and chemical plant is overhauled, the PX plant in Hengli Petrochemical is put into operation, other units are temporarily stable, and the operation rate of domestic p-xylene plant is stable In about 70%, the domestic market supply of p-xylene is normal, and the domestic market price trend of p-xylene is stable temporarily. The operating rate of PX plant in Asia is about 80%. On April 13, the closing price of PX market in Asia fell by 2 US dollars / ton, and the closing price was 457-459 US dollars / ton fob in South Korea and 477-479 US dollars / ton CFR in China. More than 40% of PX needs to be imported in China. Recently, affected by the fluctuation of crude oil price, the external price of PX declined slightly, and the market price trend of PX was stable temporarily.

As of the 13th, WTI crude oil futures market prices in the United States fell slightly, with the main contract at 22.76 yuan / barrel, down $0.35. Brent crude oil futures market prices rose slightly, with the main contract at US $31.48/barrel, or US $0.26. Saudi energy minister said on Sunday that OPEC and its allies (known as OPEC + Organization) will effectively cut production by 12.5 million barrels per day due to the increase in oil production in Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait in April. Crude oil price shocks support the cost of downstream petrochemical products, and the market price trend of p-xylene is stable.

In terms of downstream PTA, the price trend of domestic PTA spot market slightly declined, with the market average price of 3442.22 yuan / ton as of April 14, and PTA price slightly decreased in recent two days. Influenced by the slight decline of crude oil price, the price of PTA Market in the downstream is slightly lower. In the near future, Fuhua industry and trade and BP Zhuhai restart, and the domestic PTA unit load is increased to 93.42%. At present, the overall inventory pressure in the market is still large. Domestic polyester production kept at 82.53% and weaving production fell to 51%. At present, the load is restored to a higher level, the inventory is still high, and there are 30-35 days for each polyester library. Affected by the decline of export orders, the inventory and capital pressure of textile enterprises rose, but PTA prices fluctuated at a low level, and the domestic price trend of p-xylene was temporarily stable.

In the near future, crude oil prices fluctuated, the price of PTA Market in the downstream declined slightly, and the demand in the downstream of the terminal did not improve significantly. Business analysts believe that PX market price may keep fluctuating.

On Monday, April 13, according to the data monitored by the business association, the polypropylene (PP) index rose vertically today. The ex factory price of large petrochemical plants in China has been increased by leaps and bounds, and the traders have to cancel the quotation from time to time and raise the price again. The spot price of domestic polypropylene market has skyrocketed, and polypropylene is a rare commodity for a while. The search army has the momentum to kill the general without asking about the price area. PP futures rose again, prompting the market speculation atmosphere. As of the afternoon of April 13, the main offer price of T30S (wire drawing) from domestic manufacturers and traders was about 8533.33 yuan / ton. Film material, plastic injection, etc. rise synchronously, fiber material can not go down. Today’s rally continued last weekend’s rally, even more than last weekend’s rally. It rose 16.89%, surpassing the 14.36% increase of the whole week last week.

Turning point

Rome wasn’t built in a day, so it wasn’t built overnight. Especially in the background of the weakening demand of China’s plastic industry and the rapid growth of polypropylene production capacity, polypropylene (PP) can have a recent increase is really a blessing. In this article, the polypropylene analyst of the business club will take you to analyze the reasons.

The turning point of the market appeared on April 6 last week. According to the monitoring data of the business club’s bulk list, PP spot market stabilized from April 1-13 after the adjustment of shocks, and rose sharply since April 6, ending the three consecutive months of decline. Today’s gains were particularly encouraging, with a reference to 16.89% per ton of single day spot price increases. This subtle inflection point, which has a high synchronous rate with the international crude oil price fluctuation, makes us have reason to believe that the starting point of the industrial chain – crude oil, whose rise is the heavyweight fuse of this polypropylene market.

Upstream conduction

On April 2, peripheral news said that Saudi Arabia and Russia are expected to reach the impact of a production reduction agreement. WTI and Brent both rose by more than 25%, the biggest daily increase on record. On April 9, the OPEC + special meeting ended. Its production reduction was less than the market expectation, and the oil price corrected. Russian President Vladimir Putin, U.S. President trump and Saudi Arabia’s King Salman called on Tuesday to reach an oil production reduction agreement between OPEC and other non OPEC oil producing countries, Xinhua reported Sunday. Kremlin website released a statement the same day, Putin, Trump and Salman in the call to support the production reduction agreement. Since early April, oil prices have increased by 11.13%. The plasticizing industry mostly depends on the top cost end crude oil. In recent years, crude oil has soared, and crude oil and polypropylene as futures have strong financial attributes, so the market transmission of this rise is sharp and rapid.

In addition, the direct upstream propylene trend of PP is also relatively rapid in the near future. Many traders adjusted their gains over the weekend, and it is reported that some enterprises have increased nearly 100%. Last month, Shandong propylene price fell in shock, with a monthly decline of more than 15%. After the Qing Dynasty, the price of propylene increased steadily, and the market transaction has soared to 8000-12000 yuan / ton, and some manufacturers have suspended the quotation. Market transactions have soared by 8000-12000 yuan / ton, and some manufacturers even suspended their offers. The upstream production reduction is good, the downstream procurement enthusiasm is good and the raw materials are in short supply, and the participants have a positive attitude. It can be seen from the industrial chain relationship of polypropylene that the recent sharp rise of propylene has played a direct role in conducting the sharp rise of polypropylene. The rising trend of crude oil and propylene near and far cost end is the cost side factor of this soaring market of polypropylene.

Futures urges

When it comes to futures, it could be an important driver of today’s surge in spot prices. On the 10th, the 05 contract was up 398 points, up and closing. Pp09 opened sharply on the 13th, and pp05 rose again. The delivery of the contract is coming soon, investors follow the speculation and the market is immersed in a speculation atmosphere. And the position of 100000 hands is more than twice of that of the same period. Whether the 05 contract can be successfully delivered will be the main concern. On the news side, in addition to the above-mentioned international crude oil price, the demand gap of propylene brought by the current public health events is also a big driver. In the near future, futures have a strong impact on spot prices, which is the financial factor of this rally.

Mask crisis

Analysis of the current polypropylene skyrocketing, naturally can not bypass the rapid growth of prevention and control material demand. Since the Spring Festival, there are about 30000 new mask factories in China. The demand of fiber material and melt blown material increases rapidly. The surge in demand has caught polypropylene enterprises and the society by surprise, and petrochemical enterprises have turned to produce varieties in short supply. Before the outbreak of this social public health event, the proportion of fiber material production was about 35%. At present, the production of fiber material has reached a historical high level, and melt blown polypropylene has also experienced a significant expansion. Even so, some brand products still have a large gap. The inclination of variety demand and production scheduling also resulted in the decrease of production proportion of CO injection plastics and drawing materials. Last year, the production capacity of PP drawing materials accounted for about 33%. Recently, a large number of enterprises changed production, which caused the production capacity of drawing materials to fall to around 22%. As the mainstream material in the market, drawing material has strong rigid demand and large demand. According to Longzhong’s follow-up, the short-term production scheduling mismatch may lead to a shortage of wire drawing materials in the later stage. “Mask crisis” can be said to be the demand side factor driving up the price of polypropylene.

Forecast for future market

PP analysts of business club think: during the current special period, the situation of overseas health prevention and control is still unclear, and the short-term decline of demand for polypropylene fiber materials and spray melt materials at home and abroad is less likely. There is still room to improve the load of downstream factories such as wire drawing and copolymerization, but this year’s maintenance peak season is approaching, and the start-up situation of the production line is complex, which needs further observation. At the same time, due to the mismatching of production capacity, some materials are facing the expectation of weakening supply. In addition, the cost end support is consistent, so the overall price of polypropylene is expected to remain high in the short term.

According to the monitoring of the business agency, the price of domestic phthalic anhydride rose sharply this week. As of the end of the week, the price of phthalic anhydride by ortho phthalic method was 4475 yuan / ton, up 4.07% from 4300 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, down 32.71% year on year. Recently, the market price of phthalic anhydride rebounded and increased.

Since 2020, the market price of phthalic anhydride in China has been greatly reduced, but recently supported by the rise of crude oil price, the price of downstream petrochemical products rebounded and increased, and the market price of phthalic anhydride is no exception. In recent years, the market price of phthalic anhydride continues to rise. The operation of domestic phthalic anhydride manufacturers is normal, the operating rate of phthalic anhydride in the site is more than 60%, the spot supply of domestic phthalic anhydride is normal, the procurement of downstream plasticizer industry is better than before, the market of phthalic anhydride manufacturers is better, and the market price of phthalic anhydride bottoms out. By the end of the 10th, the market price of phthalic anhydride in East China had risen slightly, but the high-end transactions in the market were blocked. The main flow of negotiation of neighboring France’s source of goods in East China was 4400-4700 yuan / ton, and that of naphthalene’s source of goods was 4000-4200 yuan / ton. The main flow of quotation in the phthalic anhydride market in North China was 4400-4800 yuan / ton, and the wait-and-see mentality in the phthalic anhydride market was still strong, the trading market in the market was slightly improved, and the price of phthalic anhydride rebounded Rise.

In terms of the industrial chain, the market prices of phthalic anhydride upstream raw materials ortho benzene and downstream DOP have also increased to varying degrees. The trend chart of monitoring ortho benzene and DOP prices by the business agency is as follows:

From the above trend chart, it can be seen that the upstream o-benzene price has increased slightly. In the near future, the price of CNPC o-benzene has increased by 100 yuan / ton, and the price of o-benzene has declined significantly since March. However, in the near future, affected by the price support of upstream raw crude oil, the import o-benzene market in the port area has warmed up, there are few transactions in the market, and the price of o-benzene has slightly increased, which brings some benefits Good support, phthalic anhydride market price affected higher.

By the end of the week, the average price of domestic DOP market was 5800 yuan / ton. DOP enterprises operated at low load, and DOP manufacturers had a lot of inventory. The price of DOP rose, the equipment of PVC enterprises started to operate at a low level, and the enthusiasm of customers’ procurement recovered. The main quotation of DOP market is about 5700-6000 yuan / ton, and the transaction of market plasticizer is getting warmer. Influenced by the rise of crude oil price, the market price of phthalic anhydride is rising.

On the whole, the short-term interest and support of crude oil price is limited, and the price is mainly volatile. The price of domestic petrochemical products is slightly higher due to this impact. Business analysts believe that the market price of phthalic anhydride will still slightly increase in the short term.