According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the mainstream market price of domestic polyester short fibers increased in June. As of June 28th, the average price of 1.4D * 38mm in mainstream short fiber factories was 7901 yuan/ton, 2.86% higher than the beginning of the month.
In the early stage, the short fiber maintenance device increased its load, and after the start of operation, it maintained a high level of operation, resulting in narrow fluctuations in prices. The trend started to rise significantly in the latter half of the month, mainly due to the conversion of conventional short fibers from two major factories, which has led to a tight circulation of mainstream specification products in the market. In addition, short fiber factories raised prices uniformly at the end of the month under the background of guaranteed processing fees, providing effective support for prices. With high raw material prices, downstream purchasing enthusiasm has decreased, and the demand side is relatively weak.
The crude oil market is boosted by the peak summer demand in the United States, and gasoline consumption is gradually increasing. Coupled with OPEC and the probability of extending production cuts to the third quarter, oil prices will receive significant support, and prices will operate at a high and strong level. The tense geopolitical situation has intensified supply concerns, and crude oil has gained support. As of June 27th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $81.74 per barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $85.26 per barrel. Under the drive of crude oil, the cost driving force for PX still exists. An 800000 ton facility in Fuhai, China, will achieve output, further improving overall supply capacity. There are expectations of some changes in the demand side PTA facilities, and PX will still be in the destocking stage in the short term.
In June, domestic PTA prices fluctuated and adjusted with changes in costs and supply, and the spot market showed a W-shaped trend. As of June 28th, the average PTA market price in East China was 6025 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.25% compared to the beginning of the month. In the future, on the supply side, a set of 2.5 million ton PTA units in Northeast China is planned to be shut down for maintenance on June 29th. In addition, attention still needs to be paid to the restart of 2 million ton PTA units in South China and 1.2 million ton PTA units in Northwest China. It is expected that the overall PTA supply will be abundant in July, and the domestic PTA production will start at a high level, which may enter the stage of accumulating inventory.
As the cost of raw materials continues to rise, downstream enterprises are increasingly resistant to high prices and adopt a cautious wait-and-see attitude, choosing to focus on digestion and stocking. The production of the yarn factory has slightly decreased, and the transaction atmosphere has been lackluster. Looking ahead to July, the textile market is still in the traditional off-season, with poor downstream demand expectations. Weaving production may continue to decline, and the pressure on polyester short fiber factories to ship may increase.
Overall, analysts from Business Society believe that polyester short fiber manufacturers have plans to reduce production while maintaining processing costs. Crude oil prices may fluctuate at high levels, but PTA is expected to be weak. At the same time, downstream textile companies are experiencing losses and poor shipments, and their acceptance of high priced raw materials is low, or they may maintain sporadic essential procurement. At present, although short fiber production factories are selling at high prices, the mentality of traders has shown differentiation, and the focus of transactions has shifted downwards. It is expected that the price of polyester short fibers may decline narrowly.