According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic market for maleic anhydride has continued to rise recently. As of June 24th, the average market price of n-butane oxidation method maleic anhydride remained at 7210 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.10% compared to June 17th at 7290 yuan/ton.

In terms of supply: Wanhua has resumed production recently and has plans to sell out. Recently, the prices of major factories have continued to decline, and market prices have continued to fall. As of June 24th, the ex factory price of solid anhydride in Shandong region is around 6800 yuan/ton, and the ex factory price of liquid anhydride is around 6100 yuan/ton.

Upstream: The international crude oil market has been on the rise recently, while the n-butane market has fallen overall. As of June 24th, the price in Shandong is around 5250 yuan/ton.

Downstream: Currently, raw material prices have fallen, and prices of the main unsaturated resin factories have also fallen. Recently, unsaturated resin has entered the off-season, with limited downstream production and limited support for unsaturated resin.

Business Society’s maleic anhydride product analyst believes that the prices of the main maleic anhydride factories have continued to decline recently, coupled with the current resumption of production by Wanhua, there are plans to sell out in the near future; Downstream unsaturated resins have entered the off-season, with limited procurement of maleic anhydride. It is expected that the maleic anhydride market will mainly consolidate at a low level in the near future.

1、 Price trend

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the price of bromine remained stable with an increase this week. The average market price at the beginning of the week was 22300 yuan/ton, and the average market price over the weekend was 22800 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 2.24%, an increase of 15.15% compared to the same period last year. On June 6th, the bromine commodity index was 80.00, an increase of 0.35 points from yesterday, a decrease of 67.37% from the highest point of 245.18 points in the cycle (2021-10-27), and an increase of 35.78% from the lowest point of 58.92 points on October 29th, 2014. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to present)

2、 Market analysis

This week, the price of bromine remained stable with an upward trend, and the mainstream market price in Shandong region is currently around 21000-23000 yuan/ton. In terms of supply, various bromine manufacturers are currently operating normally with low inventory. The supply of imported bromine is average, which is beneficial for domestic bromine manufacturers and has led to an increase in bromine prices. The production of downstream flame retardants for bromine is average, the industry is operating weakly and steadily, and the demand for agriculture and intermediates is average. In terms of raw materials, domestic sulfur prices have risen, with an average market price of 1076.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 1083.33 yuan/ton at the end of the week, an increase of 0.62% and a 30% increase compared to the same period last year. Downstream procurement is mainly based on demand.

It is predicted that the price of bromine will rise in the near future, with upstream sulfur prices consolidating, downstream flame retardants of bromine operating generally, and the industry operating weakly and steadily. The demand for agriculture and intermediates is average, and the comprehensive supply-demand game predicts that bromine may continue to consolidate and operate in the future, depending on downstream market demand.

1、 Price trend

According to monitoring data from the bulk list of Business Society, the overall price of bromine rose in May. At the beginning of the month, the average market price of bromine was 19600 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, the average market price of bromine was 22300 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 13.78% and a year-on-year increase of 4.21%. On May 30th, the bromine commodity index was 77.54, an increase of 0.7 points from yesterday, a decrease of 68.37% from the highest point in the cycle of 245.18 points (2021-10-27), and an increase of 31.60% from the lowest point of 58.92 points on October 29th, 2014. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to present)

2、 Market analysis

The overall price of bromine has risen this month. The mainstream market price in Shandong region is currently around 21000-23000 yuan/ton. In terms of supply, various bromine manufacturers are currently operating normally with low inventory. The supply of imported bromine is average, which is beneficial for domestic bromine manufacturers and has led to an increase in bromine prices. But the import window period for bromine is about to end. The downstream flame retardant and intermediate industries have been mainly purchasing on demand recently, with average demand.

Regarding sulfur: In May, sulfur prices overall declined. At the beginning of the month, the average market price was 1183.33 yuan/ton, while at the end of the month, the average market price was 1050 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11.27% and a year-on-year increase of 30.21%. The trading atmosphere in the sulfur market is average, with sulfur enterprises actively shipping and downstream manufacturers mainly purchasing according to demand.

Business Society analysts believe that the price of bromine has recently risen this month. The import window period of bromine is favorable for the bromine market. But the import window period is coming to an end. Bromine manufacturers are producing normally, with general support from downstream flame retardants and intermediates industries. The market is mainly cautious in procurement, and the comprehensive supply-demand game predicts that the short-term price of bromine may consolidate the operating market, depending on downstream market demand.

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the mainstream market price of tetrahydrofuran in China slightly declined in May. At the end of the month, the price of tetrahydrofuran remained at 13166.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.23% from the initial price of 13333.33 yuan/ton, and a year-on-year increase of 1.84%.

Supply side: In May, the prices of mainstream domestic tetrahydrofuran distributors slightly decreased, with average inventory levels. The market price of Nantong Zhonghe tetrahydrofuran is 13000 yuan/ton; The market price of Jinan Jinhao tetrahydrofuran is 14000 yuan/ton; The market price of Nanjing Runsheng tetrahydrofuran at the end of the month is 12500 yuan/ton, with lower dealer quotes and average on-site sales.

Cost side: In May, the market price trend of maleic anhydride increased. Currently, the spot supply of maleic anhydride has decreased, factories have limited shipments, and the market circulation of goods is limited. Prices continue to rise, and the market trend is upward. As of the end of the month, the ex factory price of solid anhydride in Shandong is about 7100 yuan/ton, and the ex factory price of liquid anhydride is about 6700 yuan/ton. The domestic market price of 1,4-butanediol has declined, with rigid demand contracts trading and light spot trading. The price of 1,4-butanediol has dropped from 9071.43 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 9028.57 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 0.47%. The domestic BDO market is weak and downward, with light spot trading; The pressure on on-site inventory is still present and entering a new cycle, causing pressure on holding manufacturers to ship goods. Negotiations for discounts on actual orders have led to a weak market focus and a downward trend. The upstream raw material market prices have fallen, with insufficient cost support. Due to the impact of supply and demand, the price of tetrahydrofuran has been negatively affected, resulting in a slight decrease in tetrahydrofuran prices.

On the demand side: In May, the price trend of spandex in the market declined. At the end of the month, the price of spandex was 28875 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.35% from the initial price of 29875 yuan/ton. In recent years, the concentration of the domestic spandex industry has been continuously increasing, and the industry’s leading effect has been obvious. The expansion of production capacity has significantly overlapped with the average performance of downstream terminal textile demand in recent years. The downstream spandex market is weak and declining, and downstream customers are less actively purchasing tetrahydrofuran, resulting in a slight decline in the tetrahydrofuran market.

Looking at the future: In the short term, the BDO market is weak and the cost support is insufficient. The downstream spandex market has slightly declined, and downstream demand has weakened. Business Society’s tetrahydrofuran analyst believes that the short-term domestic tetrahydrofuran market is not supported by favorable conditions, and it is expected that there is still room for a downward trend in the future.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, in the first half of May, prices of pure polyester yarn and polyester cotton yarn fluctuated and fell due to the continuous decline in raw material prices and downstream wait-and-see attitudes. In the second half of the month, raw material prices rebounded and stabilized. As of May 31st, the average price of pure polyester yarn in the Shandong region was 12325 yuan/ton, which is the same as the price at the beginning of the month; The average market price of polyester cotton yarn is 17300 yuan/ton, which is the same as the price at the beginning of the month.

Market Review: Since early May, orders from spinning factories, except for sewing threads, have generally decreased. Especially in the first half of the month, due to the decline in prices of cotton and polyester staple fibers, in order to ensure orders, the prices of pure polyester yarn and polyester cotton yarn were lowered by 100-300 yuan/ton. In the second half of the month, with the rebound of cotton and polyester staple fiber prices, the prices of pure polyester yarn and polyester cotton yarn tend to stabilize. Factories mainly focus on fulfilling orders, rather than following the rebound of rising raw material prices. A small amount of inventory with large varieties will be reduced in price promotions to recover funds. Therefore, in the second half of May, the overall inventory of pure polyester yarn and polyester cotton yarn will not increase but decrease. Cotton mills generally hold a pessimistic attitude towards future expectations, mainly focusing on controlling inventory, which led to an expansion of cash flow deficit in the second half of May.

Cost wise: In May, the mainstream market price of domestic polyester staple fibers showed a trend of first falling and then rising. As of May 30th, the average price of 1.4D * 38mm staple fiber factories was 7682 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.39% compared to the beginning of the month.

The cotton market has been greatly affected by the US cotton market, with an overall trend converging. In the first half of the month, the decline was around 3%. Afterwards, the US cotton market rebounded from a low level, and under the influence of sentiment, the domestic market slightly rebounded. However, under the sluggish demand, there was greater upward pressure, and at the end of the month, the US cotton market fell sharply again, with external drag leading to an overall decline in the market.

Supply and demand side: As of May 31, the comprehensive operating rate of chemical fiber weaving in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 69.51%, which is -1.20% higher than the operating rate since May Day. The overall order volume in the warp knitting market is weak, with a clear gap in new orders, and factories still mainly rely on orders received in the early stage and production inventory. The expectation for new orders is insufficient, and there is an increase in rotation within the factory. The off-season in the industry is becoming more apparent, and end customers mainly place orders on demand. The atmosphere of subsequent orders for knitted fabrics in the circular machine factory has not improved, and the pressure on raw fabric inventory is gradually increasing. The shipment rate of large fabric stores is not high, and some factories have started to take turns on holidays. On site production is stable, but weak. The delivery of four-sided elastic workwear fabrics on water jet looms is still acceptable, but the market lacks new hot selling fabrics to boost sales, resulting in a significant slowdown in the delivery speed of raw fabrics. Looking ahead to next month, the off-season atmosphere is strengthening, and the trend of weaving production weakening may increase.

Recently, the number of orders from weaving manufacturers has fluctuated downward and is about to enter June. The off-season is still expected to have another downward trend, with weak new orders for domestic and foreign trade. Weaving and printing and dyeing manufacturers have increased their rotating weekends, and the operating load has fluctuated and decreased. The trading atmosphere in the textile market is weak.

From the perspective of the textile industry, the export of textiles and clothing did not meet expectations, and there was no large-scale rebound in foreign trade demand. The export amount decreased year-on-year. According to data from the General Administration of Customs, China’s textile and clothing exports in April amounted to 23.934 billion US dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 3.12%. Among them, the export value of textiles (including textile yarns, fabrics and products) was 12.19 billion US dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 2.36%; The export value of clothing (including clothing and clothing accessories) was 11.744 billion US dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 3.90%.

It is expected that domestic demand will further weaken in June, and shipping costs will continue to rise in May. According to statistics, orders for polyester staple fibers and yarn factories have been affected to some extent. If the future shipping costs remain high, the sales pressure of pure polyester yarn and polyester cotton yarn will further increase.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the overall price of domestic sodium metabisulfite remained stable in May 2024. The average price of industrial grade sodium metabisulfite was 2166.67 yuan/ton on May 1 and 2166.67 yuan/ton on May 31, indicating overall stability.

Supported by a slight rebound in domestic soda ash prices in late April, some enterprises slightly increased the factory price of sodium metabisulfite in May, driving a slight rebound in the domestic market price of sodium metabisulfite at the beginning of the month. With the fluctuation and stabilization of raw material prices, the overall supply and demand of sodium metabisulfite market have remained stable, and the market price of sodium metabisulfite has remained stable throughout the month.

In May, there were overall fluctuations in the upstream raw material prices of sodium metabisulfite, with a slight increase in the price of soda ash, which rose 6.9% within the month. Sulfur prices fluctuated downward, falling 10.7% within the month. The overall raw material prices fluctuated forward, and a slight increase in the price of soda ash will provide some support for the future price of sodium metabisulfite.

Future Market Forecast

Analysts from Business Society believe that the price of soda ash is fluctuating upwards, and downstream demand for sodium metabisulfite is stable. With support from costs and demand, it is expected that there will still be some upward space for the domestic market price of sodium metabisulfite in June.