28-29, early this week, the domestic liquid ammonia market basically ended last week’s rise, Hebei region, Shandong region, the beginning of the week prices were stable, according to the business community monitoring, Shandong region, the market mainstream offer 3000-3200 yuan / ton.

The price of liquid ammonia in Shandong Province was mainly stable. There was a reaction from large factories last Sunday. Due to a slight increase in inventory, the price was slightly reduced by 50 yuan / ton. The ammonia quantity in Shandong Province was basically in a state of supply and demand balance, which still had some support for the price. In the downstream, the demand for agricultural fertilizer is slightly insufficient in the off-season, which is also the main reason why the price of liquid ammonia has not kept rising.

Other regions are mainly stable, while Hebei follows closely the price trend of Shandong. At the beginning of the week, the price of liquid ammonia also stopped rising. At present, the price is running smoothly, and the volume of liquid ammonia in this region has not changed. However, due to the centralized maintenance of two large manufacturers in Northeast China, Hebei has undertaken some orders from Northeast China, which has a little support for the price. At present, the price of liquid ammonia is in the range of 3100-3250 yuan / ton.

In the future, the business community believes that this week, the liquid ammonia market may be slightly adjusted. On the one hand, with the maintenance of enterprises’ devices, the market inventory pressure has also been eased, which also neutralizes the bad news of the low season downstream and the shrinking purchasing volume. On the other hand, local production restriction in the northern region has also formed a certain support for prices, and the imbalance between supply and demand may continue to be maintained.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the business news agency’s block list, the domestic toluene price rose first and then fell this week, which was lower than that of last week. On December 20, the price of toluene was 3850 yuan / ton; on this Sunday (December 27), the price was 3770 yuan / ton, down 80 yuan / ton or 2.08% compared with last week.

2、 Analysis and comment

Within the week, Sinopec’s Toluene in North China, South China and central China was reduced by 100 yuan / ton, while that in East China was reduced by 200 yuan / ton. During the week, crude oil fell due to bad news, which led to the weakness of toluene external market, while the domestic toluene market fell. This week, the price of TDI and PX fell. Holders of toluene are reluctant to sell at low prices and watch the price trend of crude oil and refined oil.

In terms of crude oil, a more infectious new crown mutant virus was found in the UK last weekend. Most cities in the UK implemented strict City closure measures. The market worried that the demand for crude oil would be frustrated again, and crude oil fell due to bad news. Friday is the Christmas holiday, crude oil information is not available. Compared with December 18, Brent fell $1.575/barrel, or 3.03%; WTI fell $1.01/barrel, or 2.05%. Compared with December 31, 2019, Brent decreased by 24.52% and WTI decreased by 20.64%.

Downstream: in terms of TDI, the price of this week was lower than that of last week, and the price of domestic goods was 12666.67 yuan / ton, down 100 yuan / ton or 0.78% compared with that of last week. At present, the TDI market is weak, the atmosphere in the market is cold, the downstream inquiry enthusiasm is not high, and the future market is weak.

In the PX market, the domestic PX price was stable this week, and the listed price of Sinopec’s enterprises was about 4300 yuan / ton, down 35.82% year on year. PX market based on demand procurement, price stability. As of December 24, the closing prices of p-xylene market in Asia were US $601-591 / T FOB Korea and US $619-621 / T CFR China.

3、 Future forecast

Analysts from the chemical branch of business society think: first, look at the supply cost side, the implementation of OPEC + production reduction, the total number of us oil wells and weekly EIA and API inventory data. Second, on the demand side, the impact of the global epidemic on crude oil demand, the recovery of the industrial chain, the economic and trade situation in Europe and the United States, and the progress of the fiscal stimulus plan. Third, look at the geopolitical situation in the Middle East and China and the United States, the progress of new crown vaccine research and development, the dollar index and stock market linkage.

Friday is Christmas, crude oil market demand is expected to decline, coupled with uncertainty in the crude oil market, toluene is expected to be weak next week. The downstream demand is weak, and the toluene price has a big resistance to break through the upward trend, focusing on the trend of gasoline price.

On December 21, the Information Office of the State Council released the white paper “China’s energy development in the new era” and held a press conference to introduce the relevant information. The white paper points out that China’s energy development has made historic achievements in the new era, which provides important support for serving high-quality economic development, winning the battle against poverty and building a moderately prosperous society in an all-round way.

Remarkable achievements in energy revolution

The white paper points out that China has unswervingly promoted the energy revolution, made major changes in the way of energy production and utilization, and made historic achievements in energy development. The energy production and consumption structure has been continuously optimized, the energy utilization efficiency has been significantly improved, the energy consumption conditions for production and living have been significantly improved, and the energy security guarantee ability has been continuously enhanced, which has provided important support for serving the high-quality development of the economy, winning the battle of poverty alleviation and building a moderately prosperous society in an all-round way.

China’s energy policy presents the following new features: first, it adheres to the people’s center, always puts people’s energy use in the first place, and strengthens energy universal services; second, it adheres to the clean and low-carbon orientation, speeds up the green and low-carbon transformation of energy, and increases the proportion of clean energy and non fossil energy consumption; third, it adheres to the core position of innovation, speeds up the pace of independent innovation of energy science and technology, and promotes energy The fourth is to promote development through reform, build a high standard energy market system, and constantly release market vitality; fifth, adhere to the construction of a community of shared future for mankind, deepen global energy governance cooperation, accelerate the green and low-carbon transformation of global energy, and build a clean and beautiful world.

In the new era, China’s energy development has made historic achievements. Since the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, great changes have taken place in China’s energy production and utilization mode, basically forming a multi wheel driven stable energy supply system, comprehensively promoting energy conservation, and supporting an average annual growth of 7% of the national economy with an average annual growth of 2.8% in energy consumption. Clean energy accounted for 23.4% of the total energy consumption, an increase of 8.9% over 2012. The cumulative installed capacity of hydropower, wind power and solar power generation ranked first in the world. A complete industrial chain of clean energy equipment manufacturing has been established to support the development and utilization of clean energy. China’s carbon emission intensity in 2019 is 48.1% lower than that in 2005, and the target of 40% – 45% reduction in carbon emission intensity proposed in 2015 is achieved ahead of schedule.

“We hope that through the release of this white paper, we can deeply understand China’s hard work in promoting the green and low-carbon transformation of energy and its positive contribution to addressing global climate change and promoting sustainable energy development.” Zhang Jianhua, director of the state energy administration, said.

Power supply is generally stable and orderly

In winter, how to balance power supply and energy conservation and emission reduction?

Zhao Chenxin, Secretary General of the national development and Reform Commission, said that recently, due to the high-speed growth of industrial production and the superposition of low-temperature and cold current, the demand for electric power has exceeded expectations, and the demand has shown rapid growth. In particular, the growth rate of electricity demand in Hunan Province and Jiangxi Province in December ranked first in the country.

Among them, in the first ten days of December, Hunan’s maximum power load was more than 1 million kilowatts higher than the previous peak load; in the first ten days of December in Jiangxi Province, the power generation and consumption increased by 18.4% year on year, and the maximum power consumption load reached 26.31 million kilowatts.

“The peak load in summer is often the largest, and this situation in Jiangxi is 500-600000 kilowatts higher than the historical maximum load in summer. Both Hunan and Jiangxi have created high points. ” According to Zhao Chenxin, Zhejiang Province also saw an increase in electricity demand. In the first ten days of December, power generation and consumption increased by 9.2% year-on-year, ranking first in eastern provinces.

He pointed out that Hunan, Jiangxi and other provinces have been key areas of winter security over the years due to the long distance of coal transportation and the limitation of external power receiving capacity. Recently, in view of the power shortage in these provinces, the local government has taken timely and orderly measures to reduce the power consumption of a division of labor commercial enterprises in a planned way, which ensures the balance of power supply and demand and the power demand of residents, and ensures the overall stable operation of power.

“Up to now, the overall power supply has been stable and orderly, and the power consumption of residents has not been affected.” Zhao Chenxin said that in the face of the rapid growth of electricity demand since the beginning of winter, the national development and Reform Commission, the state energy administration, together with relevant departments and power enterprises, actively take measures to ensure the power demand and ensure the overall stable and orderly power supply.

Actively participate in global energy governance

A number of major energy cooperation projects have been implemented, multilateral and bilateral mechanisms for energy cooperation have been constantly improved, and energy policy and technology exchanges have become increasingly frequent China has one belt, one road initiative, and China’s energy cooperation has achieved fruitful results.

The white paper proposes that the international community should make joint efforts to promote the green and low-carbon transformation of energy, consolidate multilateral cooperation in the field of energy, promote international energy trade and investment, promote energy accessibility in underdeveloped areas, promote sustainable global energy development, and maintain global energy security.

China has become the largest energy producer and consumer in the world. Zhang Jianhua said that China one belt, one road, energy cooperation and international cooperation will be developed with high quality in the face of the new situation and new challenges.

On the one hand, actively participate in global energy governance cooperation. China will uphold the one belt, one road, energy partnership and promote mutually beneficial cooperation in energy and energy, and continue to strengthen cooperation with multilateral mechanisms of international organizations and actively carry out multilateral energy cooperation and exchanges.

On the other hand, we should promote energy cooperation projects with high quality. China will deeply participate in the global energy transformation and reform, study and promote cooperation with relevant countries in nuclear power, wind power, photovoltaic, smart grid, smart energy, interconnection and other aspects, study policies combining green energy and green finance, and promote bilateral and multilateral cooperation projects.

According to the data from the large list of business associations, the domestic adipic acid market was basically stable last week (12.14-18), with little fluctuation in the market. According to the monitoring, the sample rose slightly, with a range of 0.49%. Many regions showed mixed ups and downs. And most of the dealers’ quotations maintain a stable trend, East China, South China and other regions gradually stop rising. According to the monitoring of business agency, the current quotation range of adipic acid is 8200-8500 yuan / ton.

In terms of market supply, the operating rate of adipic acid manufacturers remained stable in the middle of December, about 80%. The market supply of adipic acid was relatively sufficient, and the inventory pressure of manufacturers was acceptable. Dealers usually take delivery of goods normally. At present, there are signs that the manufacturers’ inventory is gradually excessive to the dealers, and the dealers are also showing signs of accumulation of high prices. It is not ruled out that the inventory situation will be cleared by making profits due to the overstocking of inventory in the later stage.

Market trend of pure benzene

As shown in the above chart, the crude oil price was kept at a high level last week, but the operating cost of adipic acid was kept at a high level in May, as shown in the above chart The price of pure benzene will be under pressure.

PA66 market trend chart

In terms of downstream demand, the terminal performance is rigid and stable, the polyurethane procurement peak is gradually coming to an end, and the market demand slightly retreats. In December, the PA66 market has gradually cooled down, and the price has dropped. So far, according to the data of the business agency, the decline in December is 3.02%. Later, with the Festival approaching, the market operating rate may further decline, which does not rule out the possibility of price downward again.

In the later stage, according to the business community, the market of adipic acid is basically coming to an end, and the later price may be subject to the suppression of demand without major action. However, at present, it is in the middle of winter, and the downstream operating rate may decline. At present, the cost of pure benzene also shows signs of decline. The downstream PA66 has also opened a downward channel. It is expected that adipic acid will maintain a high level in the near future and continue to rise Sex is not big, also do not rule out the possibility of falling back.

Although the market expects the international oil price to rise, there is a certain support for the price of chemical products. However, due to the lack of maintenance of global styrene units and the profit of styrene production is still acceptable, the global supply is expected to increase in the first quarter of next year, and the main downstream PS, EPS, ABS and UPR of styrene are facing load drop, so the styrene price is facing certain downward pressure.

Crude oil market expected to be destocked

OPEC + will increase production by 500000 B / D from January 2021, and will hold monthly meetings from January next year to “assess market conditions and decide on further production adjustments for the next month, with monthly production adjustments no more than 500000 B / D”. According to the EIA forecast of the US Energy Agency in December, the global crude oil market as a whole will be slightly de stocked in 2021, which is expected to be 1.8 million barrels / day, with a large supply gap in the first quarter of this year. According to the evaluation of the Bloomberg News Agency, the results of the OPEC + meeting will make the crude oil market in the state of de stocking until the first quarter of next year.

At present, mainstream investment banks are more optimistic about the future oil price rise space. According to the analysis of relevant institutions, the average cost of tight oil in the United States is about US $44 / barrel, while the cost of Russian crude oil is $53 / barrel. As Russia and other countries mainly refer to Brent crude oil, if Brent rises to more than $55 / barrel, basically all other crude oil costs can be covered except oil sand. According to the evaluation of major mainstream investment banks on crude oil price in 2021, Goldman Sachs sees it at $65 /If Brent oil price rises to $53-55 / barrel, there will be more resistance to move forward.

Styrene supply will increase

For example, Shanghai SECCO’s 650000 ton styrene plant will be overhauled for 35 days from November 15. It is expected that the styrene plant with an annual output of 210000 tons in Shuangliang will be opened in mid December. Therefore, from the supply side, styrene supply will rise in the first quarter of next year under the condition that the current unit is not expected to be overhauled.

From the perspective of overseas styrene plant maintenance, most of the styrene units previously overhauled in South Korea were restored in November and early December, and the cosmor unit in the United States was also started from December 5 to 6, resulting in an increase in overseas styrene supply.

On the other hand, styrene demand will weaken seasonally. From the main downstream of styrene, with the approaching of the Spring Festival holiday, the operating load of styrene downstream will gradually decrease, and the support for styrene price will gradually weaken. The load drop of EPS and UPR is the most obvious.

On the whole, the current global styrene plant maintenance is less, while the styrene profit is fair, and the global supply is expected to rise. At the same time, the main downstream PS, EPS, ABS and UPR of styrene are facing load drop. Therefore, if there is not much maintenance of styrene plant next year, the downward pressure of styrene price in the first quarter of next year will be greater.

From December 10 to 12, with the support of Shanghai Stock Exchange, Zhengshang exchange, Dashang stock exchange and Huatai Securities, the “2021 derivatives market annual meeting” sponsored by Huatai futures was held in Hangzhou, Shanghai and Beijing. The meeting focused on wealth management characterized by futures derivatives based on major asset allocation, as well as black building materials, precious metals and nonferrous metals, energy and chemical industry, agricultural products, financial technology, etc Big theme.

On the afternoon of December 2022, Liu Xitai delivered a speech on the theme of “rising of energy and chemical industry: the leader of China chemical industry group” in the afternoon of December 2022.

Looking back on the development of the chemical industry in the past year, Liu Xi believes that the epidemic situation and low oil prices in the first half of the year accelerated the bottom of the profitability of the industry, and the profits of most sub industries declined. However, the profits of epidemic related products increased greatly, and the prosperity of most sub industries rebounded in the third quarter.

Looking ahead to the chemical industry next year, Liu Xi said that from the demand side, domestic demand for chemicals has been gradually restored since the second quarter, while the foreign demand needs to achieve a weak recovery since the third quarter, and there is a strong expectation of repair next year. “On the supply side, the overall capital expenditure has slowed down, while the expansion of production will be concentrated on leading enterprises, and environmental protection and production safety constraints will benefit the leading enterprises. With the gradual control of the epidemic situation, oil prices are expected to gradually return to the equilibrium level.”

For the long-term prospects of the chemical industry, Liu Xi believes that the shale gas revolution has promoted the increase in the supply of basic chemical raw materials (ethane, propane, etc.) and the decline in the price center, which provides a reliable development prospect for new refining and chemical units such as Ethane Dehydrogenation and PDH. “In the future, a large number of new large-scale refining and chemical integration enterprises will enter the Bureau, driving the olefin and other chemical production capacity into a new round of expansion cycle. The continuous entry of new advanced production capacity will lead to the reshuffle of the whole chemical industry, and some backward production capacity with short industrial chain process will be phased out in the future. ”

Overall, he believes that the overall prosperity of the chemical industry will enter an upward cycle in the future, which will be accompanied by a gradual rebound in demand and continuous optimization of the supply side. The whole industry is expected to develop towards integration and centralization.

Liu Xihua is expected to focus on a few downstream industries and focus on the recovery of downstream industries. It is expected that the company will continue to focus on upgrading its downstream products and focus on the lower end of the industry Long base, and is expected to drive the oil product market reform, and will benefit private gas station leading enterprises; second, the demand side has incremental segmentation industry, automobile exhaust purification materials, degradable plastics and other industries downstream demand is stimulated by the implementation of policies, there is a large space for growth, and product production and certification link has high barriers, some high-performance auxiliaries benefit from downstream consumption upgrading Driving demand growth and supply side contraction, it is expected to usher in an upward cycle; third, the demand of semiconductor chemicals, carbon fiber and other sub industries maintains growth, and the import substitution logic is still sustainable; fourth, in view of the longer-term prospect of the industry, for each sub industry, the leader of the sub industry will ultimately drive the industry through the optimization of stock and the expansion of new categories.

According to the data of business agency, as of December 11, the average price of domestic fuel oil 180CST was 3800.00 yuan / ton (including tax), a slight increase of 1.67% compared with the beginning of the week.

On December 11, the fuel oil commodity index was 76.96, flat with yesterday, down 33.60% from 115.91 (October 17, 2018), and 67.01% higher than 46.08, the lowest point on August 15, 2016. (Note: period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

As of December 11, the price of 180 CST fuel oil was supported by the rise of domestic marine oil raw materials. According to the business agency, as of December 11, the self lifting low sulfur quotation of 180 CST fuel oil in Zhoushan area was 3750 yuan / ton; that of 120 CST fuel oil was 3850 yuan / ton; that of Shanghai area was 3850 yuan / ton; that of 120 CST fuel oil was 3950 yuan / ton.

This week, the international crude oil price fluctuates to rise, forms the support to the fuel oil price. WTI crude oil closed at $46.78/barrel on the 11th, up 1.12% from $46.26/barrel at the beginning of the week, according to the business news agency.

Singapore’s fuel oil inventory decreased and support for fuel oil increased. It is understood that Singapore Enterprise Development Council (ESG): in the week ending December 9, Singapore’s fuel oil storage fell by 3.39 million barrels to 22.361 million barrels, a three week low.

Aftermarket forecast: the energy analysts of the business agency believe that the raw material cost of fuel oil 180CST is supported, but the downstream demand is weak and the terminal transaction is limited. Generally speaking, it is expected that the fuel oil 180CST market will remain stable in the short term.

1、 Price trend of sodium metabisulfite in China

According to the monitoring of the business agency, the price of domestic sodium pyrosulfite continued to be weak and adjusted this week. The average price of industrial sodium pyrosulfite at the beginning of the week was 1700.00 yuan / ton, while the average price at the weekend was 1683.33 yuan / ton, a slight drop of 0.98%.

2、 Market analysis

In November, the price of domestic soda ash fell sharply, the processing cost of sodium metabisulfite continued to decline, and the overall wait-and-see attitude of downstream trade entities increased. In December, manufacturers successively lowered the ex factory price of sodium metabisulfite, and the domestic market price of sodium pyrosulfite was slightly weak. This week, the overall market performance of sodium metabisulfite market is average. The price range of industrial sodium pyrosulfite is 1400-1750 yuan / ton, and most of the prices are around 1600 yuan / ton. (the above prices all refer to the external quotation of domestic mainstream enterprises, and some unreported enterprises are not included in the scope temporarily. The prices are for reference only and have nothing to do with the final pricing of manufacturers. Please contact all manufacturers for details.).

In December, the price of domestic soda ash continued to fall, while the price of sulfur rose slightly. Overall, the raw material cost of sodium metabisulfite continued to decline, and the market price of sodium pyrosulfite in the future market was under pressure.

3、 Future forecast

Business agency analysts believe that the cost of raw materials continues to fall, domestic sodium metabisulfite market prices still have some room for reduction in the short term.

1、 Market price trend chart of paraformaldehyde

Polyoxymethylene price curve

(photo source: Commodity analysis system of Business Club)

According to the monitoring of the business agency, the average price of paraformaldehyde was 4866 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 5000 yuan / ton at the weekend, with the quotation rising by 2.74%.

2、 Market analysis

Shandong aldehyde Chemical Industry Co., Ltd., with an annual output of 30000 tons of paraformaldehyde, Polyoxymethylene (96) ex factory, including tax, quoted 4800 yuan / ton, which was the same as last week. Linyi Shengyang Chemical Co., Ltd., with an annual output of 9000 tons of paraformaldehyde, Polyoxymethylene (96) ex factory, including tax, quoted 5200 yuan / ton, which was 200 yuan / ton higher than last week. Zibo Qixing Chemical Technology Co., Ltd., with an annual output of 10000 tons of paraformaldehyde, Polyoxymethylene (96) ex factory, including tax, quoted 5000 yuan / ton, which was the same as last week. Manufacturer response paraformaldehyde shortage, market demand is OK, some manufacturers raised the price.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the raw material methanol in Shandong Province rose 0.46% this week.

3、 Future forecast

POM analysts believe: supported by upstream raw materials, paraformaldehyde may continue to rise.

After several months of rising market situation, the epoxy resin market has ushered in a downward trend. It is understood that the current liquid epoxy resin market offer to 28000-28500 yuan / ton, the major factories rose to 29000-30000 yuan / ton in the early stage, then the offer decreased, and the current factory guidance price dropped about 1000 yuan / ton.

Among them, Jiangsu Yangnong Jinhu three sets of liquid epoxy resin production capacity of 170000 tons / year were started at about 80%, epoxy resin E-51 quoted 28000 yuan / ton water purification factory; Nantong Xingchen epoxy resin production capacity of 160000 tons / year of the plant was in normal operation, liquid epoxy resin E-51 external quotation of 29000 yuan / t water factory, mainly delivery orders.

In the early stage, epoxy resin has been going up crazily, mainly from the downstream market orders continue, factory shipment has no pressure, recently the major factories have been down, after entering December, market uncertainty increased. In terms of raw materials, under the tight supply of bisphenol a market, it directly charged 20000 yuan. However, in view of the scarcity of supply in the market, most of the factories mainly supplied orders and regular customers, so the offer was suspended. However, the current raw materials are also at a record high. Due to the impact of the downstream product market downturn, uncertain factors in the later stage increased.

Another important raw material epichlorohydrin market also showed a downward trend, the current epichlorohydrin closed 11600-12000 yuan / ton.