This week, the price of metal silicon # 441 slightly declined. As of January 26th, the average price of domestic metal silicon market was 15310 yuan/ton, a 0.52% decrease compared to the previous week. This week, the industrial silicon market continued to weaken. On the one hand, downstream enterprises have basically completed pre holiday stocking and procurement, and the downstream photovoltaic installation speed did not meet expectations at the beginning of the year, driving a decrease in demand for photovoltaic modules and a greater willingness to replenish inventory and lower prices; On the other hand, some silicon factories have resumed production, increasing inventory pressure and weakening market transactions, resulting in a weakening of spot prices.

On the 26th, the price of 441 # silicon in various regions is as follows:

The price range of # 441 metallic silicon in the Huangpu Port area is 15200-15300 yuan/ton, with an average price of 15250 yuan/ton; The price range of # 441 metallic silicon in Tianjin Port area is 15200~15300 yuan/ton, with an average of 15250 yuan/ton; The price range of # 441 metallic silicon in Kunming area is 15100-15200 yuan/ton, with an average price of 15150 yuan/ton; The price range of # 441 metallic silicon in Sichuan region is 15000-15200 yuan/ton, with an average of 15100 yuan/ton; The price range of Shanghai # 441 metallic silicon is 15700~15900 yuan/ton, with an average price of 15800 yuan/ton.

The Factors Influencing the Price of Silicon Metal

In terms of supply:

As of January 25th, the number of silicon metal furnaces in China has reached 313, with an overall start-up rate of 41.7%, an increase of 2 furnaces compared to the previous month. This week, the number of industrial silicon furnaces has continued to increase, but due to the impact of northern air pollution, the operating range is limited, and some insulation silicon furnaces have been completely shut down. The supply of industrial silicon has not increased significantly.

In terms of inventory:

As of January 26th, the national social inventory of industrial silicon reached a total of 352000 tons, an increase of 1000 tons compared to the previous week. Among them, the social ordinary warehouse was 109000 tons, a decrease of 5000 tons compared to the previous week, and the social delivery warehouse was 243000 tons (including unregistered warehouse receipts), an increase of 6000 tons compared to the previou

s week.

In terms of demand:

This week, the price of polycrystalline silicon has slightly increased, mainly driven by N-type materials, while the price of P-type materials continues to remain stable. Currently, downstream silicon wafer companies are still operating, but they are facing some inventory pressure. The potential reduction in production in the silicon wafer sector in the future may limit the space above silicon material prices. However, the current stable production of polycrystalline silicon enterprises still shows a slight increase in the consumption of industrial silicon.

The prices of organic silicon and aluminum alloy have slightly increased, with the domestic organic silicon DMC market price reference around 15040 yuan/ton. The operating rate of organic silicon has remained stable for the week, and the expected operating rate for next week is basically stable. Multiple individual factories have released purchase orders during the week, and the mainstream transaction focus has decreased. The current quotation for aluminum alloy ADC12 is 20000 yuan/ton. The operating rate of aluminum alloy enterprises has slightly decreased, and most aluminum alloy factories have begun to enter a holiday mode. The duration of the Spring Festival holiday is mostly concentrated in about one to two weeks, and there are also a few cases of continuous operation, as well as nearly a month of shutdown during the holiday. However, in the early stage, aluminum alloy has already stocked up on industrial silicon raw materials, and the demand for industrial silicon procurement by aluminum alloy has become weak.

Future Market Forecast

In summary, on the supply side, as the holiday approaches, the overall operating rate is at a low level; On the demand side, downstream restocking has basically ended, and there may be scattered restocking in the market, resulting in weak market transactions and reduced demand release. The social inventory has slightly increased, and the overall inventory pressure is not significant. At present, the cost side support is temporarily stored, and it is expected that industrial silicon will mainly operate with weak fluctuations before the year.

Price trend in 2023:

The domestic lithium hydroxide market is sluggish in 2023. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average price of industrial grade lithium hydroxide in China was 553333.31 yuan/ton on January 1, 2023. On December 31, the average price of industrial grade lithium hydroxide in China was 133600.00 yuan/ton, a decline of 75.86% in the year’s market.

In the first half of the year, upstream lithium carbonate operated weakly in January, weakening support for the lithium hydroxide market. Domestic downstream procurement intentions were not high, with primary demand transactions, and lithium hydroxide prices slightly decreased. The decline in upstream lithium carbonate prices in February has dragged down market sentiment, coupled with weak domestic demand, resulting in limited actual market transactions and mostly low-priced orders, weakening the focus of lithium hydroxide negotiations. In March, the downward trend of upstream lithium carbonate continued, and the support for lithium hydroxide weakened again. Manufacturers mainly delivered long-term orders for transactions, and the market purchasing atmosphere was sluggish. Downstream enterprises had a mentality of buying up but not falling down, resulting in poor actual transactions and weak market performance. In mid to early April, the sluggish market for upstream lithium carbonate continued, with insufficient support for lithium hydroxide. The market supply was relatively abundant, the demand side was weak, and the mentality of the industry was not good. The high price transactions in the market were under pressure, and the weak market continued. In May, the upstream lithium carbonate market mainly saw an upward trend, providing strong support for the lithium hydroxide market. Manufacturers mainly executed long orders, while downstream inquiries showed a slight increase in enthusiasm. Business owners had a stronger attitude towards price support, leading to an increase in enterprise quotations and a strong demand for spot market transactions. In early June, the cost support continued, driving up the price of lithium hydroxide. Manufacturers mainly focused on long-term orders, while downstream demand followed suit. The market had a strong wait-and-see atmosphere.

In the second half of the year, the lithium hydroxide market declined in July due to the drag of upstream lithium carbonate and weak demand. In August, there was insufficient cost support, with production enterprises mainly focusing on long-term orders and downstream material factories not following up on demand. The purchasing mentality was cautious, and the market continued to decline. Under the dual drag of cost and demand in September, the lithium hydroxide market is operating weakly. After the Double Festivals in October, the upstream lithium carbonate market rose, boosting the mentality of industry players and driving the lithium hydroxide market to slightly follow suit. However, there was no significant improvement in demand, and cost support weakened in the latter half of the year. Supply side construction was low, with more orders delivered. Terminal demand did not meet expectations, and the market weakened again. The market fundamentals were weak in November, with a light trading atmosphere and a continued downward trend in the market. In December, the cost support was limited, and downstream demand for nickel materials was insufficient due to high demand. The market shipments were average, and merchants cautiously followed up with low prices when receiving goods. Holders stimulated orders with low prices, and the focus of lithium hydroxide negotiations weakened.

Price forecast for 2024:

Supply side: China is a major producer of lithium hydroxide globally, and in recent years, the annual total production of lithium hydroxide in China has continued to grow. In the second half of 2023, with the low market for lithium hydroxide, the production enthusiasm of enterprises has decreased, and a few lithium salt factories have switched to producing lithium carbonate. The operating rate of the lithium hydroxide industry is low, and the total production of lithium hydroxide in China in 2023 is about 283000 tons. With the expected increase in some new production capacity in 2024, it is expected that the overall production of lithium hydroxide in 2024 may show an increasing trend.

Demand side: Lithium hydroxide is an important raw material for manufacturing power batteries, glass, ceramics, and other products. In 2023, the demand for high nickel vehicle models was sluggish, and the increase in demand side was less than expected, dragging down the lithium hydroxide market. It is expected that the demand side will gradually recover in 2024.

Import and export: According to customs data, the total import volume of lithium hydroxide in China from January to December 2023 was 3805558 kilograms, a year-on-year increase of 23.32%. The total export volume of lithium hydroxide in China from January to December 2023 was 130009396 kilograms, a year-on-year increase of 39.22%. It is expected that lithium hydroxide exports will increase in 2024.

Upstream lithium carbonate:

Comparison chart of annual price trends of lithium hydroxide and upstream lithium carbonate in 2023

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the price of lithium carbonate will decline in 2023. As of December 31, 2023, the average domestic mixed price of industrial grade lithium carbonate was 94000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 81.35% compared to the average price of 504000 yuan/ton on January 1. From the above chart, it can be seen that the trend of lithium hydroxide and upstream lithium carbonate in 2023 is basically similar, and the lithium carbonate market has a significant impact on the lithium hydroxide market.

In summary, the production capacity or growth expectation of the lithium hydroxide market in 2024 is expected. Lithium hydroxide, as a key material for manufacturing high nickel batteries, has broad market prospects in the future. However, the global consumer market is becoming more rational, and there is still uncertainty in demand. The lithium hydroxide market is full of opportunities and challenges. It is expected that the trend of the lithium hydroxide market in 2024 may still follow the upstream lithium carbonate market, and more attention still needs to be paid to costs Guidelines for upstream and downstream enterprises to start production and export.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic price of sodium metabisulfite remained stable and advanced this week. The average price of industrial grade sodium metabisulfite at the beginning of the week was 2400.00 yuan/ton, and the average price over the weekend was 2400.00 yuan/ton, indicating an overall stable and advanced trend.

As the end of the year approaches, the overall trading volume of the domestic sodium metabisulfite market has turned weak. This week, the price of the domestic sodium metabisulfite market has remained stable and moving forward. The price range of the domestic industrial grade sodium metabisulfite market this week is 2400-2450 yuan/ton. The company’s inventory is about 30%, mainly completing orders from old customers. (The above prices refer to the quotations from mainstream domestic enterprises, and some enterprises that have not been reported are not within their scope. The prices are for reference only and are not related to the final pricing of the manufacturers. For details, please contact each manufacturer for consultation.).

This week, domestic soda ash prices slightly declined, falling by 2.46% within the week, while sulfur prices rebounded slightly, rising by 1.83% within the week. Raw material prices fluctuated, and the overall fluctuation of domestic sodium metabisulfite market prices was limited.

Future Market Forecast

Analysts from Business Society believe that raw material costs fluctuate, and market trading has turned weak at the end of the year. In the short term, the domestic market price of sodium metabisulfite will continue to consolidate and operate.

Recent trends in sulfuric acid prices

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, the domestic sulfuric acid market prices have dropped significantly this week. The price of sulfuric acid has dropped from 232.50 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 207.50 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 10.75%, and the weekend price has dropped by 23.62% year-on-year.

The upstream market has dropped significantly, and downstream procurement enthusiasm has weakened

From the supply side perspective, the prices of mainstream domestic sulfuric acid manufacturers have fluctuated this week, with manufacturers operating at low levels and average inventory levels.

From the upstream market perspective, the sulfur market in the upstream has slightly declined, with sulfur prices dropping from 936.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 910.00 yuan/ton over the weekend, an increase of 2.85%, and a year-on-year decrease of 22.66% over the weekend. At present, the price of sulfur at the port continues to decline, which has a negative impact on the spot market. There is a clear bearish sentiment on the market. In order to stimulate shipments, some refineries have lowered their sulfur prices.

From the perspective of downstream market conditions, the market price of monoammonium phosphate in the downstream market has slightly declined, dropping from 3253.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 3220 yuan/ton over the weekend, a decrease of 1.02%, and a year-on-year decrease of 4.10% over the weekend. Recently, there has been a decrease in inquiries and weak trading in the ammonium phosphate market. The decrease in pending orders, coupled with the weakening of the raw material market, has led to a continued decline in the price of ammonium phosphate.

Slight fluctuation and decline in the future market

In late January, the domestic sulfuric acid market may experience a slight fluctuation and decline. The upstream sulfur market has slightly declined, with insufficient cost support. The downstream market for monoammonium phosphate and titanium dioxide has slightly declined, and downstream customers have weakened their enthusiasm for purchasing sulfuric acid. The product trend is declining under the contradiction of supply and demand. Business Society sulfuric acid analysts believe that in the short term, the domestic sulfuric acid market is mainly affected by supply and demand, raw materials, and other factors, and the price of sulfuric acid may fluctuate slightly and fall.

Since January 11th, the domestic MIBK market has experienced a significant decline. According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the market reported 15333 yuan/ton on January 11th and 14500 yuan/ton on January 19th, a cumulative decrease of 5.43%

This week, the acetone market saw a narrow increase. As of now, the negotiated price for acetone in the East China region is between 6850-6900 yuan/ton. The trading atmosphere in the market was average this week. At the beginning of the week, with the arrival of port supplies, domestic factories are still in a loss making state. Traders are firm in their offers, with low prices remaining. Petrochemical companies are maintaining stability and shipping according to plan, and downstream demand is following up. Purchasing sentiment is average, and transactions are flat.

From a terminal perspective, the intention to purchase large orders has decreased, and the demand is mostly for small orders to follow up. Large enterprises enter the market with caution and tend to operate targeted contracts, but traders are holding onto the market and reluctant to sell, resulting in a significant increase in small order prices.

At present, the operating rate of the domestic MIBK industry is maintained near Liucheng, and the seller lacks confidence in the future market. Low price goods are frequently available, and the intention to make concessions has increased. Business Society predicts a weak performance in the short-term MIBK market.

In 2023, the domestic sulfuric acid market saw a sharp rise and fall

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic sulfuric acid market will experience a sharp rise and fall in 2023. The average price at the beginning of the year was 286.67 yuan/ton, and the average price at the end of the year was 274 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.42% for the whole year. From the trend chart of sulfuric acid prices, it can be seen that the highest price of sulfuric acid in 2023 was 316 yuan/ton in mid September, and the lowest price was 152 yuan/ton in late July, with a maximum annual amplitude of 107.89%.

From the monthly K-bar chart, it can be seen that in 2023, the price of sulfuric acid has fallen more or risen less, and the market situation has experienced significant ups and downs. The highest increase was 83.75% in August, and the highest decrease was 19.19% in January. In January, the downward trend at the end of 2022 continued, with sulfuric acid prices continuing to decline by 19.19%. The use of spring plowing fertilizers in March provided support for the price of sulfuric acid, with an increase of 15.82%. With the end of spring plowing, the production of phosphate fertilizer enterprises continues to decline, coupled with a significant drop in upstream sulfur prices, sulfuric acid prices continue to decline. In April, the price of sulfuric acid decreased by 9.03%, and in May, the price of sulfuric acid plummeted by 16.64%. In June, the export orders for sulfuric acid increased, and the price of sulfuric acid increased by 7.69%. Entering the third quarter, the demand for autumn fertilizer market began to increase, and the price of sulfuric acid market rapidly increased. The price increased from 152 yuan/ton at the end of July to 306 yuan/ton at the end of September, an increase of 101.32%. Entering the fourth quarter, the price of sulfuric acid fluctuated widely with the rise and fall of upstream sulfur. In October, sulfur prices fell by 8.52%, while sulfuric acid prices fell by 15.69%. In November, sulfur prices surged by 13.07% and sulfuric acid prices surged by 17.05%. Downstream demand weakened in December, and sulfuric acid prices began to decline again.

How will the sulfuric acid market develop in 2024?

In terms of production capacity, as of September 2023, China’s sulfuric acid production capacity is about 139 million tons, with a growth rate of 4%, and the scale of production capacity is steadily expanding. According to data statistics, a total of 30.4 million tons/year of newly built and planned sulfuric acid production capacity will be built in China from 2023 to 2025. From January to October 2023, 5.35 million tons/year of sulfuric acid production capacity will be put into operation, of which 3.4 million tons/year of sulfuric acid production capacity will be commercial, and 1.95 million tons/year of sulfuric acid production capacity will be self used. In 2024, a total of 10.55 million tons/year of sulfuric acid production capacity is planned to be put into operation, of which 7.33 million tons/year of sulfuric acid production capacity is planned for commercial use, and 3.22 million tons/year of sulfuric acid production capacity is planned for self use. The trend of overcapacity in sulfuric acid production is becoming more severe.

From a supply perspective, as of November 2023, the national sulfuric acid production reached 86.802 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.8%. It is expected that in 2024, driven by the steady expansion of production capacity, sulfuric acid production will gradually increase, and supply pressure will further increase.

From the perspective of market demand, the top three downstream consumption proportions of sulfuric acid are diammonium phosphate accounting for 30%, monoammonium phosphate accounting for 21%, and titanium dioxide accounting for 12%. The production capacity utilization rate of downstream products such as phosphate compound fertilizer and titanium dioxide is showing a downward trend, and various downstream market trends are showing a sluggish trend.

From the perspective of imports and exports, the cumulative export volume of sulfuric acid in China from January to November 2023 was 2.2419 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 34.73%. The cumulative import volume of sulfuric acid in China from January to November was 310600 tons, an increase of 16.46% year-on-year. At present, there are 7 domestic sulfuric acid export enterprises, and the pressure on sulfuric acid supply is increasing. The number of sulfuric acid export enterprises may continue to increase in 2024.

Overall, the sulfuric acid market will continue to face downward pressure from oversupply in 2024.

Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of January 12th, the average price of industrial grade lithium hydroxide in China was 131000.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.95% compared to the beginning of the month and a decrease of 76.04% compared to the same period last year.

Since January, the domestic industrial grade lithium hydroxide market has been operating weakly. In recent times, the upstream industrial grade lithium carbonate market has been operating weakly, with prices of upstream spodumene concentrate falling and insufficient cost support. Downstream demand for high nickel materials has followed slowly, and market transactions are mainly based on long-term cooperative orders, creating a strong wait-and-see atmosphere.

Upstream lithium carbonate: Recently, industrial grade lithium carbonate has maintained a downward trend. According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the domestic mixed average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate was 91600 yuan/ton on January 11, 2024, which is 1.93% lower than the average price of 93400 yuan/ton on January 7, providing weak support for the lithium hydroxide market.

According to analysts from Shengyishe Lithium Hydroxide, the current market is still lacking in positive support and the trading atmosphere is weak. It is expected that in the short term, the domestic lithium hydroxide market may experience weak consolidation and operation, and more attention should be paid to market news guidance.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of January 14th, the reference average price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in China was 6360 yuan/ton, which is 6510 yuan/ton compared to the reference average price on January 8th. This week, the domestic price of thermal phosphoric acid decreased by 2.30%.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of January 14th, the reference average price of 85% wet process phosphoric acid in China was 6316 yuan/ton, which is a decrease of 1.56% compared to the reference average price of 6416 yuan/ton on January 8th.

2、 Market analysis

The market price of phosphoric acid has fallen this week. The price of raw material yellow phosphorus has slightly increased this week, with increased cost support. However, the phosphoric acid market remains sluggish, and the demand side has not improved yet. At present, the shipment of phosphoric acid in the market is not smooth, and downstream procurement intentions are weak. Manufacturers and distributors have lowered their prices steadily. As of January 14th, the factory quotation for 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Yunnan region is around 6600 yuan/ton, and the factory quotation for 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Hubei region is around 5800-6700 yuan/ton. The domestic market quotation for 85% wet process phosphoric acid is around 5300-6950 yuan/ton.

Market for raw material yellow phosphorus. This week, the domestic yellow phosphorus market has been on the rise, and the overall market trading situation is relatively active. The market is driving steadily, with traders and downstream buyers showing good enthusiasm, and yellow phosphorus manufacturers collectively increasing prices. The focus of new transactions has shifted upwards. As of now, the market quotation for yellow phosphorus is around 23800-24000 yuan/ton, and the actual transaction is negotiable.

In terms of raw material phosphate ore. In terms of raw material phosphate ore. The domestic phosphate ore market has been operating steadily this week. At present, the supply of phosphate ore in the field is still tight, with some areas experiencing tight spot prices. The downstream of phosphate ore is mainly for procurement of essential goods. As of January 14th, the domestic market price for 30 grade phosphate ore is around 1030-1100 yuan/ton, with some regions offering higher prices around 1150 yuan/ton.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Business Society’s phosphoric acid analyst believes that the phosphoric acid market has continued to weaken in recent days. Although the raw material yellow phosphorus market is improving, the demand in the phosphoric acid market is not good, and downstream replenishment willingness is weak. The market is still bearish, and it is expected that the short-term phosphoric acid market price will be weak and consolidating. It is recommended to observe the trend of raw materials and changes in demand.

Domestic sodium metabisulfite price trend chart

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic price of sodium metabisulfite continued to decline this week. The average price of industrial grade sodium metabisulfite at the beginning of the week was 2433.33 yuan/ton, and the average price over the weekend was 2400.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.37% during the week.

Due to the continued weakness in raw material prices, some enterprises have slightly lowered the factory price of sodium metabisulfite this week, driving the domestic market price of sodium metabisulfite to continue to decline. This week, the domestic industrial grade sodium metabisulfite market price range is between 2200-2450 yuan/ton. The inventory of the enterprise is about 30%, mainly to complete orders from old customers. (The above prices refer to quotes from mainstream domestic enterprises, and some companies that have not been quoted are temporarily not within their scope. The prices are for reference only and are not related to the final pricing of the manufacturer. For more details, please contact each manufacturer for consultation.).

This week, domestic soda ash prices fell by 3.42%, while sulfur prices increased by 1.08%. Overall, upstream raw material prices continue to show a downward trend, and the continuous decline in raw material costs will further suppress the domestic market price of sodium metabisulfite in the future.

Future Market Forecast

Business Society analysts believe that raw material costs continue to decline, and in the short term, the overall price of sodium metabisulfite in the domestic market is weak and difficult to improve.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of January 7th, the reference average price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in China was 6416 yuan/ton, which is 0.52% lower than the reference average price of 6450 yuan/ton on January 1st.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of January 7th, the reference average price of 85% wet process phosphoric acid in China was 6510 yuan/ton, which is a decrease of 1.06% compared to the reference average price of 6580 yuan/ton on January 1st.

2、 Market analysis

The market price of phosphoric acid has fallen this week. The weak operation of raw material yellow phosphorus results in insufficient cost support. After the holiday, the phosphoric acid market continued to be sluggish, with fewer inquiries and relatively quiet transactions. Phosphoric acid manufacturers and distributors have lowered prices for shipments, leading to bearish sentiment in the market. As of January 7th, the factory quotation for 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Yunnan region is around 6600 yuan/ton, and the factory quotation for 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Hubei region is around 5850-6600 yuan/ton. The domestic market quotation for 85% wet process phosphoric acid is around 5500-7150 yuan/ton.

Market for raw material yellow phosphorus. This week, the domestic yellow phosphorus market has remained stable, and the overall market trading situation is relatively light. This week, the market has been driving steadily, with weak downstream demand. Traders and downstream buyers have average enthusiasm for purchasing goods, and downstream purchases are mostly cautious. New orders have limited transactions, and demand is mainly in demand. As of now, the market quotation for yellow phosphorus is around 23000 yuan/ton, and the actual transaction is negotiable.

In terms of raw material phosphate ore. The domestic phosphate ore market has risen this week. After the holiday, the trading atmosphere in the domestic phosphate ore market was mild, and downstream demand for procurement and stocking was high. After the holiday, some mining enterprises in certain regions of Sichuan and Guangxi in China will implement new prices for new orders, increasing the prices of mid to high-end grade phosphate ore by about 10-30 yuan/ton. The phosphate ore market in Guizhou and Yunnan regions is operating steadily. At present, there is a tight supply of phosphate ore in some regions, and the on-site spot circulation is tight. As of January 7th, the domestic market price for 30 grade phosphate ore is around 1030-1100 yuan/ton.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Business Society’s phosphoric acid analyst believes that the phosphoric acid market has been continuously weakening in recent days. The market for raw material yellow phosphorus is poor, and the cost support for phosphoric acid is insufficient. Downstream on-demand procurement, weak demand, and limited market trading. The short-term market situation is difficult to improve, and it is expected that the short-term phosphoric acid market price will continue to operate weakly.