1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the reference average price of 85% hot process phosphoric acid in China on October 1st was 7140 yuan/ton. On October 30th, the reference average price of 85% hot process phosphoric acid in China was 7200 yuan/ton. This month, the domestic hot process phosphoric acid price increased by 0.84%.

2、 Market analysis

The market price of phosphoric acid fluctuated and increased this month. In the first half of October, the market price of thermal phosphoric acid slightly decreased. The market for raw material yellow phosphorus is poor, and cost support is weakening. There is no significant increase in downstream demand, and market trading is weak. In the second half of October, the market price of thermal phosphoric acid increased. The price of raw material yellow phosphorus has risen, and cost support has strengthened. The operating rate of phosphoric acid enterprises is stable, and there is currently no change in market supply. There is no significant increase in downstream demand, and market trading is weak. As of October 30th, the factory quotation for 85 industrial grade thermal phosphoric acid in Yunnan region is around 7300 yuan/ton, the factory quotation for 85 industrial grade thermal phosphoric acid in Hubei region is around 6700-7200 yuan/ton, and the factory quotation for 85 industrial grade thermal phosphoric acid in Sichuan region is around 7000 yuan/ton. The domestic market quotation for 85 wet process phosphoric acid is around 6500-7600 yuan/ton.

Market situation of raw material yellow phosphorus. Overall, the market price of yellow phosphorus increased in October. In the first ten days of October, the overall market turnover of yellow phosphorus was fairly good. The price of upstream phosphate rock rose, the cost support was awesome, and the market price was temporarily stabilized. In the middle of the year, the yellow phosphorus market fell first and then rose, with an overall upward trend. There are many downstream inquiries, making it difficult to purchase at a lower price, with manufacturers mainly pushing prices. In the latter half of the year, the market price of yellow phosphorus slightly decreased, and downstream demand was poor. The market pressed down on procurement, and the focus of price transactions gradually shifted downwards. As of now, the market quotation in Sichuan region is around 26000 yuan/ton, and the actual transaction is negotiable.

Market of raw material phosphate rock. Continuing the upward trend of “Gold Nine”, the domestic phosphorus ore market “Silver Ten” continues to rise and operate. After the end of the October National Day holiday, the overall domestic phosphorus ore market continued to approach a high level. On October 26th, the market price of 30 grade phosphorus ore once again exceeded the thousand yuan mark. On October 30th, the reference price of phosphorus ore was around 1024 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.57% compared to early October. At present, the difference between high and low prices in the phosphate rock field has narrowed, and the overall market performance is still good.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Phosphoric acid analysts from Business Society believe that the trend of phosphoric acid has slightly decreased recently. The transaction focus of raw material yellow phosphorus has decreased, and cost support has weakened. Downstream demand is weak, with primary demand for procurement, and the market remains in a wait-and-see mood. It is expected that the short-term price of phosphoric acid will be weak, with consolidation and operation being the main focus.

This week (October 23-27), the market for viscose staple fibers was flat, prices remained stable, and factory orders were mainly shipped. The yarn factory carefully purchased according to needs, and new orders were sold lightly. The upstream raw material acid and alkali prices have slightly decreased, with slight signs of overall loosening. We are waiting for a new round of prices to be introduced. Downstream people’s cotton yarn is relatively light, with a strong wait-and-see attitude. There are not many orders, and the focus of local negotiations has slightly declined. Inventory pressure has increased slightly, and the enthusiasm for raw material procurement is low. Inventory is mainly consumed.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the price of viscose staple fiber remained stable this week (October 23-27). As of October 27, the domestic factory quotation for 1.2D * 38mm viscose staple fiber was 13600 yuan/ton, which is the same as last week’s price.

In terms of cost: This week (October 23-27), the price of raw material dissolved pulp remained stable at a high level. Hunan and Shandong manufacturers produce broadleaf dissolved pulp, with domestic dissolved pulp priced around 7500-7600 yuan/ton, imported broadleaf dissolved pulp priced around 880 dollars/ton, and needle leaf dissolved pulp priced around 890-900 dollars/ton. Currently, some negotiations are underway. The acid and alkali prices have slightly declined and have not yet been transmitted to the viscose staple fibers, but there are slight signs of looseness overall.

Supply demand: The operating rate of the viscose staple fiber industry is basically maintained, the enthusiasm for raw material procurement is low, and the inventory pressure of manufacturers is slightly increasing. The human cotton yarn factory mainly consumes inventory, and the enthusiasm for replenishment is currently not high. The human cotton yarn is relatively flat, and there are not many new orders that just need to be restocked. The overall demand is average.

Downstream cotton yarn market

This week (October 23-27), the price center of viscose remained flat, and the cost support for human cotton yarn was strong. However, demand was light, and the yarn factory maintained a cautious wait-and-see approach, with a slight decline in the focus of local negotiations. As of October 27th, the average ex factory price of human cotton yarn (30S, ring spun, first class) was 17600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton compared to last week’s price. There are not many new orders that just need to be restocked, and the overall shipment is average. The demand from downstream weaving manufacturers is still relatively flat, and the improvement is not significant.

Future Market Forecast

The price of raw material dissolved pulp remains stable at a high level, but the acid and alkali prices have slightly declined, and cost support has declined. We are waiting for a new round of prices to be introduced. The market procurement enthusiasm is not high, and downstream demand performance is mediocre. Analysts from Business Society expect the market for viscose staple fibers and rayon yarn to remain stable in the short term, with prices likely to decline slightly.

Price List of Ethylene Oxide in October

In October, the price of ethylene oxide remained basically stable. According to data from Business News Agency, as of October 26th, the average market price of ethylene oxide in China was 6800 yuan/ton; From a regional perspective, the average market price in North China ranges from 6500 to 6800 yuan/ton, in East China it ranges from 6800 yuan/ton, in Central China it ranges from 6800 yuan/ton, and in South China it ranges from 6600 yuan/ton.

Overview of ethylene oxide industry chain

The prices of the main downstream polycarboxylate water reducing agent monomers have been relatively weak recently, while the prices of ethylene oxide have been rising recently, mainly driven by cost factors.

October ethylene oxide price may continue

At present, the cost support for ethylene oxide remains unchanged, and the demand for downstream products is the main reason that hinders the upward trend of ethylene oxide prices. It is expected that the price of ethylene oxide will remain relatively stable in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the domestic light rare earth market prices have fluctuated and decreased after the holiday. On October 22, the rare earth index was 520 points, which was unchanged from yesterday and decreased by 48.36% from the highest point of 1007 points in the cycle (2022-02-24), and increased by 91.88% from the lowest point of 271 points on September 13, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present)

The prices of domestic metal neodymium, neodymium oxide, praseodymium neodymium oxide, and praseodymium neodymium alloy have slightly declined, while the prices of praseodymium oxide and metal praseodymium have temporarily stabilized. As of the 23rd, the price of metal praseodymium neodymium was 642500 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 1.53% this week; The price of praseodymium neodymium oxide was 522500 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 0.48% this week; The price of neodymium oxide is 530000 yuan/ton, with a price decline of 0.93%; The price of neodymium metal was 667500 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 1.11% this week; The price of metal praseodymium is 680000 yuan/ton, and the price trend is temporarily stable this week; The price of praseodymium oxide is 532500 yuan/ton, and the price trend is temporarily stable this week.

This week, the light rare earth market has slightly declined. Recently, downstream magnetic material manufacturers have come to an end in stocking, and they are not actively purchasing rare earth products. In addition, waste separation enterprises have sufficient inventory, and although the situation of metal praseodymium neodymium price inversion has improved, the transaction situation is not good, and the domestic rare earth market prices have slightly decreased. Although some traders have driven an increase in market activity, and upstream companies have offered relatively firm prices, terminal demand has fallen short of expectations, and the overall light rare earth market is relatively weak.

According to statistics, the production and sales of new energy vehicles completed 879000 and 904000 units respectively in September, with year-on-year growth of 16.1% and 27.7%, and a market share of 31.6%. From January to September, the production and sales of new energy vehicles completed 6.313 million and 6.278 million units respectively, with year-on-year growth of 33.7% and 37.5%, and a market share of 29.8%. In 2023, the production and sales of new energy continue to rise, coupled with the opening of the Golden Nine Silver Ten Year Plan, the demand for new energy has increased, and the increase in production and sales of new energy vehicles is beneficial for the domestic rare earth market prices. The trend of the light rare earth market still has support.

After years of governance, the domestic rare earth industry has gradually formed a supply pattern with large groups as the main body and relatively concentrated raw materials. With the continuous development of the foreign rare earth industry, China’s share of rare earth production has decreased from 90% to 70%. According to statistics, the export volume of rare earths in September was 3935.2 tons, and the cumulative total export volume of rare earths in China from January to September was 40371.8 tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.6%. The export volume of rare earths in China has increased, which to some extent supports the prices of the rare earths market. The light rare earths market has not changed much.

Future forecast: Recently, the purchasing sentiment of magnetic material enterprises has been sluggish, and the increase in new orders is limited. It is expected that the rare earth market prices will remain stable in the short term; In the medium to long term, there is a lack of primary and renewable supply sources, and dysprosium and terbium oxides will also face shortages. In addition, driven by emerging and traditional demands such as energy-saving motors, industrial robots, wind power, variable frequency air conditioning, and consumer electronics, the global demand for rare earth permanent magnets is expected to continue to grow.

Price trend chart of sodium pyrosulfite in China

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the price of domestic sodium metabisulfite continued to be weak this week. The average price of industrial grade sodium metabisulfite at the beginning of the week was 2583.33 yuan/ton, and the average price at the weekend was 2450.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.16% during the week.

Due to the continuous decline in raw material prices, domestic manufacturers have lowered the factory price of sodium metabisulfite again, driving the domestic market price of sodium metabisulfite to continue to decline weakly. This week, the market price range for industrial grade sodium metabisulfite was 2450-2550 yuan/ton. Downstream companies have a strong wait-and-see attitude, with relatively sufficient inventory and a focus on completing old customer orders. (The above prices refer to external quotations from mainstream domestic enterprises, and some enterprises that have not been quoted are temporarily excluded from their scope. The prices are for reference only and are not related to the manufacturer’s final pricing. For more information, please contact each manufacturer for consultation.).

As of October 20th, domestic soda ash prices have continued to decline weakly, falling by 11.33% during the month, while sulfur prices have dropped by 10.16%. The continued decline in raw material prices will further suppress the market price of sodium metabisulfite in the future.

Future Market Forecast

Analysts from Business Society believe that under the dual pressure of cost and demand, there is still some room for a decline in the domestic market price of sodium metabisulfite in the short term.

Price trend

According to the bulk list data of Business Society, the domestic PC market declined in the first half of October, with spot prices of various brands generally decreasing. As of October 13th, the mixed benchmark price of Shangshang Society PC is around 16600 yuan/ton, a decrease of -2.46% compared to the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

In terms of raw materials: From the above figure, it can be seen that the domestic bisphenol A market has accelerated its decline after the holiday. During the holiday, international crude oil plummeted significantly, causing both phenol and acetone, the raw materials for bisphenol A, to decline. Insufficient upstream support, coupled with the recent restart of the Yanhua Polycarbon Bisphenol A plant, has led to an increase in industry operating rates and increased supply-demand conflicts. Overall, there is poor support for PC cost side.

In terms of supply: After the holiday, the overall operating rate of domestic PC has slightly increased, and the industry load has increased from around 68% at the end of last month to about 72%. At present, some devices have short-term maintenance plans, but the loss of production capacity is not significant, and it is speculated that the impact is limited. The supply of goods on site has increased significantly, but the confidence of enterprises has been affected. The factory price has fallen, providing general support for spot prices.

In terms of demand: Before the holiday, there are too many traditional stocking operations for PC during the peak consumption season. Currently, terminal enterprises mainly focus on digesting early inventory, and the demand for on-site stocking is poor. In terms of auction, the simultaneous contraction of volume and price, coupled with the low starting positions of terminal enterprises, has led to increased market concerns among operators. In the first half of October, demand side support for spot prices was poor.

Future Market Forecast

The PC market declined in the first half of October. The upstream bisphenol A market is weak, weakening support for PC costs. The load of domestic polymerization plants has increased, leading to an increase in spot supply in the market. Traders have a weak mentality and tend to offer at a discount. Downstream enterprises are chasing gains and selling, with poor enthusiasm for receiving goods. It is expected that the PC market may continue its weak trend in the short term.

Recent price trends of isooctanol

According to the Commodity Analysis System of the Business Society, the market price of isooctanol in Shandong Province has slightly increased this week. This week, the average price of isooctanol in the mainstream market of Shandong region increased from 12450.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 12600.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 1.20%, and the weekend price increased by 38.97% year-on-year. On October 15th, the isooctanol commodity index was 92.65, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 32.62% from the cycle’s highest point of 137.50 points (2021-08-08), and an increase of 163.58% from the lowest point of 35.15 points on February 1st, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to the present)

Insufficient upstream support and weakened downstream demand

From the supply side perspective, the prices of mainstream manufacturers of isooctanol in Shandong have slightly decreased this week, with average inventory levels.

From the upstream raw material market of isooctanol, the propylene market has slightly declined this week, with prices dropping from 7200.75 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 7038.25 yuan/ton at the weekend, a decrease of 2.26%, and a year-on-year decrease of 7.64% over the weekend. The upstream raw material market prices have slightly declined, with insufficient cost support. Due to the impact of supply and demand, it has a negative impact on the price of isooctanol.

From the downstream market of isooctanol, the DOP market price fluctuated and fell this week. The price of DOP decreased from 11800.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 11708.33 yuan/ton at the weekend, a decrease of 0.78%, and the weekend price increased by 14.56% year-on-year. Downstream DOP prices have slightly declined, and downstream customers’ enthusiasm for purchasing isooctanol has weakened.

Future prospects

In late October, the Shandong isooctanol market may experience slight fluctuations and declines. The upstream propylene market has slightly declined, with insufficient cost support. Downstream DOP market slightly declined, and downstream demand weakened. Business Society Isooctanol analysts believe that in the short term, the domestic isooctanol market may experience minor fluctuations and declines due to various factors such as supply and demand and raw materials.

Price trend chart of sodium pyrosulfite in China

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the price of domestic sodium metabisulfite has slightly decreased after the National Day holiday. The average price of industrial grade sodium metabisulfite on October 6th was 2683.33 yuan/ton, and on October 13th it was 2583.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.73% overall.

In October, the prices of upstream raw materials rose and fell, while costs remained low. After the holiday, some manufacturers slightly lowered the factory prices of sodium metabisulfite, driving a small decline in the domestic market price of sodium metabisulfite. This week, the domestic industrial grade sodium metabisulfite market price range was 2500 to 2800 yuan/ton. The enterprise has relatively sufficient inventory, mainly to complete orders from old customers. (The above prices refer to external quotations from mainstream domestic enterprises, and some enterprises that have not been quoted are temporarily excluded from their scope. The prices are for reference only and are not related to the manufacturer’s final pricing. For more information, please contact each manufacturer for consultation.).

As of October 13th, domestic soda ash prices fell by 4.21% during the month, while sulfur prices fell by 8.2% during the month. Upstream raw material prices slightly declined, and lower raw material costs have formed a certain pressure on the domestic market price of sodium pyrosulfite.

Future Market Forecast

Analysts from Business Society believe that the cost of raw materials has slightly decreased, and the overall pressure on the market price of sodium metabisulfite is weak this week. The price of soda ash is weak and difficult to improve, and the overall market price of sodium metabisulfite will continue to be under pressure.

The market price of chloroform increased significantly in September. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of September 28th, the price of trichloromethane bulk water in Shandong Province was 2950 yuan/ton, an increase of 31.40% from 2245 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.

At the beginning of the month, the cost support for trichloromethane was stable, and downstream procurement was more on demand. The overall trichloromethane industry chain was in a balanced state, and the price of trichloromethane fluctuated narrowly. Starting from mid September, on the one hand, the prices of raw materials such as methanol and liquid chlorine have skyrocketed, and the cost of chloroform has been strongly supported. On the other hand, the start of the downstream peak season, coupled with the approaching Double Festival downstream and active stocking by businesses, has resulted in little inventory pressure on enterprises. A certain factory in Shandong Province has closed down on chloroform, resulting in tight market supply. Enterprises have gradually raised the factory price of chloroform, leading to a significant increase in the chloroform market. As the end of September approaches, the number of outbound orders from enterprises decreases, and the market for trichloromethane remains stable at a high level.

In September, the overall operation rate of the methane chloride plant fluctuated slightly, ranging from 73% to 75%.

In September, the price of raw material methanol fluctuated and decreased, while the price of liquid chlorine initially rose and then fell, leading to an overall upward trend. The cost support for trichloromethane was strong in the early stage and weakened in the later stage. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of September 27th, the spot price of methanol was 2475 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.97% from 2551 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, and the highest point in the cycle was 2605 yuan/ton; At the beginning of September, the acceptance price of liquid chlorine tank trucks in Shandong region was 300 yuan/ton, with a surge of 700 yuan/ton in the middle of the month and a drop to 300 yuan/ton at the end of the month. In the first and middle of September, the cost faced strong support from trichloromethane.

In the peak season of September, the price of refrigerant R22 has slightly increased, and the export volume of R22 is expected to continue to increase compared to August. In the short term, there is a strong demand for support for chloroform, but in 2023, the total production quota of R22 will be reduced by 19% to 181800 tons. In the medium to long term, the overall demand support for chloroform will weaken. According to customs data, the export volume of refrigerant R22 in August 2023 was 9634.831 tons, an increase of 12.5% month on month.

Methane chloride data analysts from Business Society believe that in the short term, demand for trichloromethane is just in need of support, supply pressure is not significant, and methanol prices are expected to decline from high levels. It is expected that the market for trichloromethane will consolidate at a high level in the short term. From a medium to long term perspective, under the condition of no strong cost support for trichloromethane, the market will basically show a trend of range fluctuations and consolidation due to demand constraints

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the overall price of sodium metabisulfite in China increased significantly in September, and remained stable from mid to the end of the month. The average price of industrial grade sodium metabisulfite on September 1st was 2283.33 yuan/ton, and on September 28th it was 2683.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 17.52% during the month.

Starting from mid to late August, the price of domestic soda ash rebounded significantly, with an overall monthly increase of 41.26% in August and a significant increase of 30.08% in sulfur prices. Upstream raw material prices significantly increased, and the overall inventory of domestic sodium metabisulfite was low. After the increase in raw material costs, downstream restocking was more active. Supported by both cost and demand, domestic sodium metabisulfite enterprises successively increased their factory prices in late August, driving a significant rebound in the domestic market price of sodium metabisulfite.

In early September, the domestic prices of soda ash and sulfur continued to rise, and the upstream raw material prices continued to be strong, providing further support for the domestic market price of sodium metabisulfite. The domestic market price of sodium metabisulfite continued to rise significantly, and in early September, the domestic market price of sodium metabisulfite increased significantly by 16.06%.

Starting from mid September, domestic sulfur prices rose and fell, while soda ash prices continued to rise. As of September 28th, domestic soda ash prices rose by 5.46% within the month, while domestic sulfur prices fell by 9.76%. The overall fluctuation of upstream raw material prices is stabilizing, and the overall market price of sodium metabisulfite remains relatively high.

Future Market Forecast

Analysts from Business Society believe that the fluctuation of raw material costs is stabilizing, and downstream trading entities have increased their wait-and-see attitude. The long short game poses a dilemma for the overall market price of sodium metabisulfite in the future. It is expected that the domestic market price of sodium metabisulfite will continue to operate at the current level in October.