From May 1 to May 29, 2022, the domestic coal tar production price has an inverted “V” trend. At the beginning of the month, the price is 5217.50 yuan / ton, and at the end of the month, the price is 5087.50 yuan / ton, a monthly drop of 2.49%.

On May 29, the coal tar (high temperature) commodity index was 175.43, unchanged from yesterday, down 7.50% from the highest point of 189.66 in the cycle (2022-05-18), and up 272.07% from the lowest point of 47.15 on December 6, 2015. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now).

Changes in the bidding price of coal, coke and oil in Shanxi in May 2022 (unit: yuan / ton)

Region, Price on May 5, Price on May 16, Price on May 30, Monthly rise and fall

Linfen, 5110., 5500, 5070.,-40

Luliang, 5200., 5350, 5050.,-150

Taiyuan, 5210., 5350, 5050.,-160

In the middle and early days of May 2022, Shanxi was boosted by the demand of downstream deep processing enterprises. The bidding price went up all the way, and the price of tar in Shanxi increased significantly. At the end of the month, with the lack of downstream demand in Shanxi, there was resistance to high prices, so the bidding price fell sharply at the end of the month.

The overall “V” trend of coal tar Market in May was upward in the first half of the month and downward in the second half of the month. In late April, the price of high-temperature coal tar began to enter the upward channel, boosted by the downstream. Before the May Day holiday, there was a certain demand for holiday goods in the downstream. Therefore, the auction price of tar rose higher. Some enterprises auctioned the supply of goods after the holiday before the holiday. Therefore, the overall price was higher, which once again boosted the market mentality. Some enterprises returned from the holiday to open auctions this week. Among them, the auction prices in Shanxi, Shaanxi, Hebei and other places rose significantly, However, most of the pre holiday contracts in Shandong are 5350 yuan / ton. In the first week after the festival, the regional differences in tar prices were large, but the overall trend remained upward. In the second week after the festival, the remaining coke enterprises began to auction, mainly for supplementary increase. However, the prices of some enterprises in Shanxi reached a high of 5600 yuan / ton after the festival. Therefore, most of the auctions in that week were sold out. At the same time, the downstream has some resistance to high price tar. In the second half of the month, the downstream demand declined significantly, which was more resistant to high prices. Therefore, the bidding price in Shanxi has been substantially reduced. However, the bidding prices of Shandong, Hebei and other places in other regions increased slightly by 10 yuan / ton, and the overall performance was relatively stable, with the quotation stable at 5500-5510 yuan / ton; The trend of Heilongjiang is similar to that of Shanxi. It is also affected by the decline of the downstream deep processing industry. It has strong resistance to high priced raw materials, and the bidding price has been significantly reduced. Heilongjiang implemented 5000-5050 yuan / ton this week. In the last week of this month, the overall price of tar fell. Affected by the decline of deep processing and carbon black industry, the resistance to high priced raw materials was strong, the auction price fell sharply, and the overall negative sentiment in the market was strong.

In terms of start-up: the overall start-up of coking enterprises in the early stage of this month was relatively high. With the implementation of four rounds of coke lifting and lowering, some enterprises with damaged profits have taken the initiative to limit production, and the proportion of limit production is 10%-30%. The tar supply may be affected after the limit production.

In the future market, the business community believes that the overall performance of the deep processing industry is poor, and the mentality of suppressing raw materials is still strong. There is a certain demand for replenishment in the downstream near the small and long holidays, but the overall impact on the market is limited. Generally speaking, the tar market is in a pattern of weak supply and demand in the short term. It is expected that the trend will be weak and volatile in the short term under the environment of limited downstream support.

1、 Trend analysis

According to the nickel price monitoring of the business club, the nickel price first fell and then rose this week. As of May 27, the spot nickel price was 220900 yuan / ton, up 0.74% from 219266.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, up 73.73% year-on-year.

Nickel weekly fluctuation chart

According to the weekly rise and fall chart of the business club, in the past 12 weeks, the nickel price has risen by 7 and fell by 5, and the recent trend of nickel price has mainly fluctuated in a wide range.

Nickel industry chain

LME nickel inventory

At the beginning of this week, a large number of nickel and iron in Indonesia were released and import increment eased supply concerns, and nickel fundamentals weakened. With the opening of the import window, pure nickel, including most deliverable nickel plates, arrived in the week, easing the supply concerns caused by low inventory in the early stage. In addition, downstream consumption is still affected by the epidemic, and the nickel price began to weaken.

After that, benefiting from the continuous low inventory and an Indonesian Minister said that Indonesia is considering levying export tax on low nickel products to encourage downstream investment. In addition, the domestic market was stimulated by policies, and the demand for ternary precursors returned. The downstream enterprises may increase the purchase volume in June, and the nickel price rebounded sharply after a continuous decline. However, the downstream demand is still weak, and the market trading activity is still poor. In terms of downstream stainless steel, the demand is expected to pick up, but it is still affected by the epidemic, and the consumption is slightly insufficient. On the whole, the supply is loose, the demand needs to be recovered, and the nickel price still fluctuates widely.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, the average market price of domestic liquid caprolactam was 14233 yuan / ton on May 16 and 14333 yuan / ton on May 20. The price of caprolactam rose by 0.70% this week.

2、 Market analysis

As the price of raw materials continued to rise, the cost side of caprolactam continued to exert pressure, and the price of caprolactam rose. Supported by favorable cost, caprolactam is the main player in the market. Downstream demand is mainly just demand, and the demand side needs to be released. As of May 20, the price of Sinopec caprolactam liquid was 15200 yuan / ton, which was accepted and withdrawn within 6 months. The price of Baling Hengyi caprolactam liquid is 15200 yuan / ton, and the manufacturer’s production capacity is 450000 tons / year. It will be accepted and withdrawn within 6 months. The price of Baling Petrochemical caprolactam liquid is 15200 yuan / ton, and the manufacturer’s production capacity is 300000 tons / year. It will be accepted and withdrawn within 6 months. The price of Shandong Hualu Hengsheng caprolactam bulk water is 15000 yuan / ton. It is accepted and sent to East China. The manufacturer’s unit capacity is 300000 tons / year.

Pure benzene, the raw material, rose sharply this week. Crude oil and external prices were high this week, with strong cost support. The prices of domestic main refineries are rising, the shipments in Shandong are general, and the prices are mainly rising. Due to the decrease of inbound cargo in East China, the port inventory fell to about 87000 tons. This week, Sinopec raised the price of pure benzene by 200 yuan / ton to 9300 yuan / ton. Sinopec’s price of pure benzene rose, boosting the market.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

The caprolactam analysts of the business club believe that the current raw material prices continue to strengthen, and the cost support is favorable. Some enterprises plan to repair devices, and the supply may be reduced. The demand side has limited follow-up and just needs to purchase. In the high and strong market of raw materials, the price rise of caprolactam is the main operation in the short term.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, as of May 20, the average price of domestic rubber grade high-grade white carbon black was 6325.00 yuan / ton. The overall market operated stably and the supply and demand were balanced. Compared with the same period last week, the price had no significant change. The overall market was stable, the trend was stable and the supply and demand were balanced. At present, the supply side of the market was normal and the purchase was just needed.

From May 16 to May 20, the market price of white carbon black has a stable trend. Compared with the same period last week, the price has not changed. The overall market supply and demand is balanced. The downstream just needs to purchase, mainly for contract customers. The logistics is smooth, and the market negotiation atmosphere is flat,

Upstream hydrochloric acid: as of May 20, the average price is 300 yuan / ton. Compared with the same period last year, it increased by 28.57% year-on-year. On May 19, the commodity index of hydrochloric acid was 78.95, the same as yesterday, down 42.74% from the highest point of 137.89 in the cycle (2021-10-26), and up 339.10% from the lowest point of 17.98 on September 5, 2012. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now).

Ranking of chemical index: on May 22, the chemical index was 1197 points, the same as yesterday, down 14.50% from the highest point of 1400 points in the cycle (2021-10-23), and up 100.17% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8, 2020. (Note: the period refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to now)

Business agency white carbon black analysts believe that the trend of rubber grade white carbon black is stable in the short term, and the price range is about 6000-6500 yuan / ton. (if you want to know more about the market dynamics of the industrial chain, you are welcome to pay attention to the official account of the business club, obtain commodity information and master commodity prices).

Price trend of metallic magnesium

Market analysis this week

According to the data monitoring of business agency, as of the 20th, the average price of the domestic market was 34333.33 yuan / ton, down 3.74% on a weekly basis. The magnesium ingot market continues to be weak this week. At present, the inventory and capital of magnesium factories are different. The inventory pressure of large factories is small, and the quotation is relatively stable. Some enterprises do not quote temporarily and choose to wait and see; The inventory of some factories is on the high side, and the price is reduced with the market, and the difference in market quotation is also obvious. On the whole, the magnesium ingot market fell first and then stabilized this week.

Export side

According to the statistics of China’s customs, in April, China exported 42400 tons of various metal magnesium products, a month on month decrease of 17.2% and an increase of 6.3% over the same period last year; The export volume was US $286 million, a month on month decrease of 19.2% and an increase of 147% over the same period last year.

Supply and demand

In terms of the plant, the magnesium plant still maintained normal operation and high output. On the demand side, due to the approaching shipping date at the end of the month, exporters increased their procurement efforts. In addition, the price of magnesium ingots fell close to the psychological price of traders, the market speculation became more, the trading atmosphere in the venue improved in the middle and late weeks of the week, and the inquiry of downstream customers increased.

Upstream and do

wnstream

On the cost side, on May 19, Shenmu Lantan group issued a notice on the price rise of Lantan. Some market participants believe that the price rise of Lantan has a limited impact on the metal magnesium market. This week, the overall price of ferrosilicon market tends to be stable. The spot price fluctuates with the futures disk price. There is no policy stimulus in the ferrosilicon spot market, but it is still stable. At the downstream end, the market price of magnesium powder and magnesium alloy decreased first and then stabilized with the magnesium ingot this week. While the cost side support is insufficient, the downstream procurement demand continues to be cold, and the mentality of magnesium powder and magnesium alloy enterprises is not optimistic.

Future forecast

This week, due to the large differences between different factories, the market quotation differentiation is more serious. Although the demand has increased, most people in the field are still not optimistic about the future market, the market acceptance of high-priced magnesium is still not high, the raw materials ferrosilicon and coal show signs of coming back, the bargaining power of magnesium factories is limited, and business analysts believe that the short-term magnesium market is weak.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, since mid May, the terminal demand has weakened, and the hydrogen peroxide market has fallen, with a decline of nearly 5%. As of May 23, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 1186 yuan / ton, down 14.32% from May 16.

Terminal demand turns weak and hydrogen peroxide market goes down

After May Day, the hydrogen peroxide market has improved and the price has risen. At the beginning of this week, due to the suppression of terminal demand, the hydrogen peroxide market began to callback after rising. This week, the hydrogen peroxide market gradually fell, and the price fell below 1200 yuan / ton to 1100 yuan / ton, down more than 4%.

In the middle and late ten days, the terminal demand for hydrogen peroxide fell, and the market continued to fall. As of May 23, the hydrogen peroxide fell by more than 14%, and the price fell below 1100 yuan / ton.

On May 23, Luxi Chemical quoted 1020 yuan / ton of hydrogen peroxide, down 200 yuan / ton in a single day; Shijiazhuang Zhengyuan hydrogen peroxide quoted 900 yuan / ton, down 160 yuan / ton in a single day; Quansheng chemical hydrogen peroxide quoted 1250 yuan / ton, down 30 yuan / ton in a single day.

Business agency hydrogen peroxide analyst Li Bing believes that the terminal demand is poor, and the future price of hydrogen peroxide may continue to weaken.

This week (may 16-20), domestic ethyl acetate reversed the previous rising trend, and the price fell back. According to the statistics of the business agency, the decline this week was 2.74%, mainly due to the stop rise and fall of the upstream raw material acetic acid, the normalization of the start-up of main factories, the increase of supply, the impact on the market mentality, and the weakness of downstream demand. At the weekend, the price of ethyl acetate was in the range of 8700-8900 yuan / ton.

First of all, from the perspective of cost, the price of domestic acetic acid stopped rising and stabilized this week. According to the monitoring of business society, the weekly decline of acetic acid this week was 0.20%. Due to the sharp increase in the price of Huayi devices in Guangxi in the early stage, the supply pressure in the downstream market was obviously relieved due to the sharp increase in the price of Huayi devices. However, after the price of acetic acid stabilized, there was no obvious downward trend, mainly due to the support of downstream demand, and the expected overhaul of large acetic acid plants boosted the price. Overall, the high cost effect of acetic acid still supports the downstream ethyl ester, and the decline of ethyl ester may slow down due to the impact of high cost.

From the above figure, the price comparison chart of acetic acid and ethyl acetate shows that they basically maintain the same trend, but the decline of acetic acid is more obvious, the price performance is weak, and the curve is close, indicating that the profits of downstream ethyl acetate enterprises are compressed.

In addition, from the perspective of ethyl acetate supply, the ethyl acetate plant in Shandong is still under maintenance this week, and the Celanese plant has not been restored. Therefore, the market is divided, and the market in North China is stronger than that in East and South China. Most units of manufacturers in East and South China operate normally and supply is relatively abundant. Therefore, the price of ethyl acetate decreases significantly, with a range of around 300 yuan. The main large factories in Shandong maintained normal operation. This week, manufacturers generally reduced the ex factory price by about 300 yuan / ton. At present, the inventory pressure of manufacturers is obvious, mainly reducing the price and arranging the inventory, but the market expectation turns weak. At present, ethyl acetate gradually forms a situation of oversupply.

On the demand side, dealers and downstream factories have weak purchase intention this week, mainly with small orders and low-end prices. East China was generally affected by national public health events, which dragged down market transactions and restrained some demand. However, the markets in South China and North China just need general support. However, there is not much new demand, and demand is still an important reason to restrict and suppress the market.

In the future, the ethyl acetate analysts of business society believe that the domestic ethyl acetate Market may continue to maintain a relatively high level in the short term, mainly due to the supporting role of cost. However, due to the compression of downstream profits, future demand may be further restrained. Therefore, ethyl acetate also has a certain callback risk. It is suggested that the market should treat the future market with caution.

According to the bulk data monitoring of business society, the mainstream price of styrene in Shandong rose this week. At the beginning of the week, the price of sample enterprises of business society was 10093.33 yuan / ton, and at the end of the week, the price of sample enterprises was 9975.00 yuan / ton, a decrease of 1.17%. The price fell by 2.21% compared with the same period last year.

cement

Styrene market price fluctuated slightly this week. It can be seen from the above figure that the price of styrene has mainly increased recently, and the price fell first and then rose this week. At present, the domestic styrene operating rate is at a low level, some factories are shut down for maintenance, there is no great pressure on the styrene inventory, the international crude oil price is dominated by styrene, the styrene market transaction is OK, the price fluctuates and rises slightly.

In terms of raw materials, the focus of pure benzene Market weakened in the first half of the week due to the sharp decline of crude oil. Affected by the impact of low-cost hydrogenated benzene in Shandong, enterprises generally take goods, and the price has fallen continuously. In the second half of the week, with the rebound of crude oil and the wide rise of Asian pure benzene, the cost support strengthened, and the center of gravity of pure benzene rebounded. Due to the decline of Sinopec’s output and the continuous decline of East China port inventory to about 97000 tons, the supply of pure benzene is expected to be tight, and the price of main refineries is rising. Shandong was supported to rise, but the increase was limited.

Downstream, the three downstream styrene rose or fell this week. The price of PS in the domestic market rose steadily and slightly, and the current price is 10683.33 yuan / ton.

The price of domestic EPS fell. Recently, the ordinary materials of Jiangsu sample enterprises were 11100 yuan / ton, which was the same month on month, and the resistance fuel was 12000 yuan / ton, which was the same month on month. Poor downstream demand. It is expected that the domestic EPS price may be weak in the short term.

This week, the overall support of ABS cost side upstream three materials was poor. In terms of industry load, there has been a resumption of domestic production lines recently, and the operating rate of ABS enterprises has increased compared with last month. The mentality of manufacturers has weakened and the factory price has been reduced. China’s health incidents still have a great impact on some parts of East China. Logistics and production are affected, which depresses a certain amount of demand. The goods are not smooth in the field, and the offer falls. The situation in Russia and Ukraine in Eastern Europe has become increasingly tense, resulting in the closure of many oil fields and the rise of crude oil. However, the transmission effect of price to ABS industrial chain is general, and the market differences are large. At present, the main bad news in the market is the contraction of downstream demand.

The international crude oil market is expected to rise. Styrene is likely to follow the trend of crude oil, while the output of styrene factory is stable and the downstream demand is slightly insufficient. Generally speaking, if the raw material level rises next week, the styrene market will follow the rise.

This week (from May 6 to May 13), 1# electrolytic manganese market price continued to decline. The spot market price in East China was 17600 yuan / ton last weekend and 16850 yuan / ton this weekend, down 4.26%.

Manganese ore: affected by the downstream silicon manganese end, the market performance of Tianjin Port manganese ore is relatively cold. Futures fell continuously, the factory’s buying sentiment was not high, there was a willingness to take goods at a low price, and the inquiry price was generally low. Traders are willing to ship goods, but hold the mentality of reluctant to sell at a low price. Due to the decline of manganese ore floating in the sea, the Australian block in the port is still tight in the near future. Gabon’s large ships have not arrived in the port, and there are empty windows for South African mines. The short-term inventory pressure is not high, and the miners’ shipping sentiment in the price will continue. However, the exchange rate continues to rise, the spot cost falls below the cost line, the low price reluctance to sell is also obvious, and the short-term ore price remains cautious. Northern Australia mining fell to 62 yuan / ton degree, Gabon was below 54 yuan / ton degree, and semi carbonic acid returned to 39.5 yuan / ton degree again. The overall commencement in the South was weaker than that in the north, Australia mining fell to 60 yuan / ton degree, Gabon was below 54 yuan / ton degree, and semi carbonic acid was 39 yuan / ton degree.

This week, the electrolytic manganese market continued to decline slightly, but the overall downward trend slowed down compared with the previous period. The market atmosphere is still weak as a whole, and the downstream continues to maintain just needed procurement, but the inquiry price is low. At present, there are low-cost goods inquiry in the market, and the price of steel bidding is 15300-15600 yuan / ton, which drags down the market confidence. At present, the overall market atmosphere is still weak. Although there is news of production reduction in the market, there are mostly negative factors in the market, and the market bearish sentiment prevails. Without clear positive support, the market is waiting for a new round of steel bidding guidance, and the market is expected to be stable and weak in the future.

In terms of manganese and silicon: this week, silicon and manganese still weakened along with black. China Railway Association called for reducing production. Although it increased the market’s short-term confidence, the supply and demand pattern has not changed immediately due to the different implementation progress of various manufacturers. According to the price monitoring of business agency, the mainstream quotation in Ningxia (specification: femn68si18) on May 13 was around 8000-8200 yuan / ton.

DOP prices fell first and then rose this week

According to the data monitoring of business society, DOP prices fell first and then rose this week, and the DOP market became strong and stable. As of May 16, the DOP price was 11875 yuan / ton, down 0.63% from 11950.00 yuan / ton on May 9 at the beginning of the week; Compared with the DOP price of 11775 yuan / ton on May 1 at the beginning of the month, an increase of 0.85%; Compared with the DOP price of 11762.50 yuan / ton on May 11, it increased by 0.96%. The price of plasticizer DOP is strong and stable.

Isooctanol price shock adjustment

According to the price monitoring of business agency, the domestic isooctanol price fell first and then rose this week. The overall isooctanol market fluctuated and adjusted. As of May 16, the isooctanol price was 12566.67 yuan / ton, down 0.79% from 12666.67 yuan / ton on May 9, and up 1.89% from May 1. After the end of stock replenishment after the festival, the price of isooctanol fluctuated and fell. From mid May, some isooctanol enterprises underwent equipment maintenance, the supply of isooctanol decreased, the price of isooctanol stopped falling and rose, and the overall isooctanol market stabilized. The price of isooctanol stabilized, the cost of DOP stabilized, and the upward momentum of DOP was large.

The price of phthalic anhydride fell slightly this week

According to the price monitoring of the business community, the phthalic anhydride market continued to decline this week, and the phthalic anhydride price fluctuated. As of May 16, the phthalic anhydride price was 8025 yuan / ton, down 0.47% from 8062.50 yuan / ton on May 9; The price of phthalic anhydride decreased by 1.38% from 8137.50 yuan / ton on May 1. This week, the price of phthalic anhydride continued to decline, fluctuated and fell, the downstream plasticizer manufacturers started to adjust, the demand for phthalic anhydride was insufficient, and the price of phthalic anhydride fell. The cost of DOP raw materials has decreased, and the downward pressure on DOP prices remains.

Future expectations

According to DOP data analysts of business agency, the replenishment of downstream enterprises decreased this week, the maintenance of enterprises increased, the price of isooctanol stopped falling and rebounded, the cost of plasticizer DOP increased, and the price of DOP stabilized; The downstream start-up slowly warmed up, the downstream demand of DOP warmed up, the downward pressure of DOP was weak, and the price of DOP stabilized. In the future, the pressure on raw materials remains, the downward pressure on plasticizer prices weakens, the upward momentum of raw material prices weakens, and the downward pressure on DOP remains. It is expected that DOP prices will be weak and adjusted in the future.