This week (7.20-24) the civil LPG market was more favorable, and the price continued to rise. According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the average price of liquefied gas in Shandong market was 2933.33 yuan / ton on July 20, 3110.00 yuan / ton on the 24th, with an increase of 6.02% in the week, and the price was 10.41% higher than that half a month ago (July 13).

Specification, mode of transportation, Shandong market, July 24 transaction price compared with the previous day

Civil gas and automobile transportation in Heze area: 3400 yuan / ton + 100 yuan

Civil gas and automobile transportation in Zibo area: 3180-3230 yuan / ton

Civil gas and automobile transportation in Dongying area: 3200 yuan / ton

Civil gas and automobile transportation in Weifang Area: 3200 yuan / ton

From July 20 to 24, the domestic gas market increased significantly. As of July 24, the mainstream transaction price of civil gas in Zhejiang was 2900-3030 yuan / ton, Shanghai was 2900 yuan / ton, Jiangsu was 3060-3150 yuan / ton, Jilin was 2950-3030 yuan / ton, and Daqing was 2900-3030 yuan / ton At 3000-3362 yuan / ton, the mainstream transaction price of civil gas in Hebei is 3070-3170 yuan / ton, and that in Henan is 3050 yuan / ton.

This week (7.20-24), the civil market of liquefied gas in Shandong continued to rise, with an increase of about 250 yuan / ton. During the week, the overall international crude oil rose slightly, which brought some support to the market. Civil gas mainly followed the rise. In the downstream buying mentality, they were more active in entering the market and replenished one after another. The market atmosphere was good, the manufacturers delivered goods continuously and smoothly. Under the low inventory operation, the mentality was strong. At present, CP expects the price to rise in August, which improves the mentality of the industry to a certain extent. In terms of supply, the domestic supply changed little, the number of imported gas dumping decreased, and the total supply decreased slightly. There were many positive factors during the week, and gas prices continued to rise.

During the week, the growth rate was larger, and the lower reaches of the market were more active in the early stage. But in the later stage, with the price rising too fast, the downstream resistance mentality strengthened, and after the replenishment, they withdrew from the market one after another. Considering that it is still in July, which is still the traditional off-season, the weather temperature is high, the terminal demand needs to be improved, and the driving force of continued rising in the later stage may be insufficient. However, as the overall inventory in the region is under control, it is expected that the trend of civil gas market will stabilize first and then rise in the short term.

1、 Price trend

This week, the factory price of urea in Shandong Province first fell and then rose. The quotation first fell from 1636.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 1630.00 yuan / ton on July 22, a decrease of 0.41%, and then rose to 1636.67 yuan / ton at the end of the week. Compared with the same period last year, it decreased by 14.16%. Overall, this week’s urea market temporarily stable, July 24 urea commodity index was 76.12.

2、 Market analysis

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the mainstream urea factory price in Shandong this week has been up and down. At the end of this week, the price of urea in Yangmei plain was 1640 yuan / ton, which was 20 yuan / ton higher than that at the beginning of the week; the price of Shandong Ruixing urea was 1610 yuan / ton at the end of this week, which was 20 yuan / ton lower than that at the beginning of the week; the price of Mingshui urea was 1660 yuan / ton this weekend, which was temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week.

From the perspective of market demand, the domestic corn topdressing is in the end in the near future, and rice topdressing is mainly used in the later stage; in terms of industrial demand, the downstream compound fertilizer and plate enterprises are affected by the air pollution control, and the starting load is low, and the purchase of new orders slows down. In terms of supply: the early production reduction and maintenance devices have been restored, and the spot supply has increased slightly. International: in India mmtc’s urea bid on July 17, the trading volume was only 119500 tons, unable to meet India’s demand. Therefore, on the evening of July 22, India’s mmtc issued a new round of urea bidding, and the tender was closed on July 30, and the shipping date was until September 4. Under the influence of this news, the business mentality improved, and the domestic urea transaction slightly improved.

From the perspective of upstream and downstream industrial chain, the overall situation of urea upstream products dropped slightly this week: the price of liquefied natural gas was temporarily stable, with the quotation of 2463.33 yuan / ton, which was 23.97% lower than that of the same period last year; the price of liquid ammonia this week dropped from 3060.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 2900.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 5.23%, and a year-on-year decrease of 11.76% compared with the same period last year The basic cost support is weak. This week, the quotation of melamine downstream of urea was temporarily stable, with a price of 5066.67 yuan / ton. The downstream rubber sheet factory had a general enthusiasm for urea procurement, which had a negative impact on the urea price.

3、 Future forecast

In the last ten days of July, the market situation of urea in Shandong was mainly fluctuated. Urea analysts from the business club believe that the current agricultural demand is low, and the downstream industry is generally enthusiastic about urea procurement. Although there is support from the printing mark, the support is weak, and it is expected that the short-term urea market will fluctuate slightly.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, the average price of domestic light potassium carbonate, including tax, is 6212.50 yuan / ton this week. The current price is flat on a month on month basis, and the current price is 5.87% lower than last year.

This week, the domestic potash market is stable with few fluctuations. At the same time, the demand side is weak, so the price rise is restrained, and the price adjustment is not large. According to the statistics of the business agency, the mainstream ex factory quotation range of domestic industrial grade potassium carbonate this week is about 6000-6400 yuan / ton (the quotation is for reference only), and the quotation is different according to the purchase situation.

This week, the upstream supply of potassium chloride is relatively sufficient, domestic potassium production is normal, the shipment situation is relatively slow, there are fewer new orders in the market, the trading atmosphere is flat, and the domestic potassium chloride market is stable. Limited support for potassium carbonate.

Potassium carbonate analysts believe that in the near future, the overall supply of domestic goods is relatively sufficient, and the import potassium supply is gradually arriving at domestic ports, and the port inventory is at a high level. It is expected that the price of potassium carbonate will fall mainly in the short term, and the long-term market still needs to wait and see. (the above prices are provided by major potassium nitrate manufacturers all over the country and analyzed by potassium carbonate analysts of business club for reference only. Please contact relevant manufacturers for more price details.).

1、 Price trend of lithium hydroxide

(Figure: P value curve of lithium hydroxide products)

2、 Market analysis

This week, the market of industrial grade lithium hydroxide was stable. The average price of domestic industrial grade lithium hydroxide enterprises was 54666.67 yuan / ton as of July 17, which was flat compared with the beginning of the week, decreased by 1.80% compared with June 17, and decreased by 4.09% on a three-month cycle. At present, the spot transaction of lithium hydroxide is limited, the price has no obvious fluctuation, the orders of large factories are stable, and the shipment of some enterprises is not good.

In June 2020, the output of lithium hydroxide from major manufacturers in China was around 8.28 million tons, up 9.67% month on month and 3.72% lower than the same period last year.

Upstream lithium carbonate, lithium carbonate price stable operation, the market continues to wait and see. As of July 16, the average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate in East China was 39300 yuan / ton, which was flat compared with the beginning of the week, down 0.35% compared with July 1; on July 16, the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in East China was 44700 yuan / ton, which was flat compared with the beginning of the week and increased by 1.13% compared with July 1. Recently, the price of lithium carbonate has been running smoothly, but I feel that the market is willing to support the price, but the manufacturers are still in a strong wait-and-see mood. It is expected that the price of lithium carbonate will remain stable in the short term, and the downstream bargaining power is still in place.

3、 Future forecast

In the near future, lithium hydroxide Market is expected to be stable in the face of lithium hydrogen oxide Market, which will support the short-term operation of lithium hydroxide Market.

Oil prices rose 2% on Wednesday, supported by a sharp drop in U.S. crude oil inventories last week, but further upside was limited as the organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies plan to reduce production cuts from August as the global economy gradually recovers from the new coronavirus pandemic.

Brent crude rose $0.89, or 2.1%, to $43.79 a barrel, while U.S. crude rose $0.91, or 2.3%, to $41.20 a barrel.

Crude oil inventories fell 7.5 million barrels to 531.7 million barrels in the week ended July 10, according to the energy information administration on Wednesday, compared with a 2.1 million barrel reduction expected by analysts in a Reuters survey.

“This report tells us that inventories will fall further in the coming weeks,” said Phil Flynn, an analyst at price futures group. We’re going to see more signs of tightening in the market before August, and we’re likely to see more signs of supply tightening soon. ”

OPEC and non OPEC oil producing countries have agreed to reduce production to 7.7 million barrels a day from August, the organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) said in a statement on the 15th.

The Joint Ministerial Supervision Committee of OPEC and non OPEC oil producing countries held a video conference on the same day. The conference issued a statement saying that as countries around the world slowly recover from the new epidemic, the global economy shows signs of improvement, and will enter the second phase of the oil production reduction agreement from August, that is, the scale of production reduction will be reduced to 7.7 million barrels per day.

According to Reuters, the OPEC + alliance of OPEC and its allies has been implementing a production reduction agreement of 9.7 million B / D, accounting for 10% of global supply, after the outbreak caused a sharp drop in global demand by a third, Reuters reported.

“We will enter the next phase of the production reduction agreement, and as demand continues to recover, the additional supply from the planned reduction will be absorbed,” Saudi energy minister Prince Abdel Aziz said after the Joint Ministerial oversight committee meeting

The experimental new coronal vaccine of Moderna was shown to be safe in an early ongoing study, with immune responses in all 45 healthy volunteers, US researchers said on Tuesday. The news brought support to oil prices, but traders were still nervous about the rise in new cases in the United States and other countries.

1、 Price trend

The price of aniline rebounded slightly this week, according to the data from the bulk list of business associations. On July 3, the price of aniline in Shandong was 4100-4180 yuan / ton, and that in East China was 4100-4300 yuan / ton; on July 10, aniline price in Shandong was 4200-4280 yuan / ton, and that in East China was 4300 yuan / ton, up 1.6% over last week.

2、 Analysis and comment

In terms of cost, the listed price of pure benzene was 3050-3300 yuan / ton (average price was 3150 yuan / ton) on Sunday (July 12), 10 yuan / ton higher than last week, or 0.32%. This week, Sinopec’s listed price of pure benzene remained stable, and the price of pure benzene in Shandong rebounded slightly. In the first half of the week, Shandong pure benzene experienced a wave of bottoming rebound. In the second half of the week, due to the continuous impact of higher inventory, the market mentality was slightly poor and the price was stable.

Since June 10, nitric acid has been running steadily in East China, with the price of 1450 yuan / ton in East China.

This week, supported by the cost side and the release of inventory pressure, aniline in Shandong increased slightly by 100 yuan / ton. East China is dominated by ships and cargoes, and the pressure is small.

3、 Future expectations

In terms of cost, the port inventory is still high, and the large-scale equipment overhauled in the early stage has been restarted, so the market supply pressure will continue to increase in the later stage. The load of downstream phenol ketone was reduced due to maintenance, which further reduced the pure benzene.

At present, aniline market fluctuation is not big, the price is stable with small change.

According to statistics, the price trend of domestic ammonium nitrate was temporarily stable this week. As of the end of the week, the domestic market price of ammonium nitrate was 2340 yuan / ton, which was the same as the price of 2340 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, with a year-on-year increase of 18.98%. On July 10, the commodity index of ammonium nitrate was 123.16, unchanged with yesterday, 1.68% lower than 125.26 (2020-03-15), and 59.18% higher than 77.37, the lowest point on October 31, 2016. (Note: period refers to 2013-02-01 to now).

This week, the price trend of domestic ammonium nitrate Market is temporarily stable. The domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers are in a general situation of plant start-up. The on-site supply of ammonium nitrate is normal. Some manufacturers reflect that the goods are in general. The price trend of manufacturers is temporarily stable. In the near future, the on-site supply of goods is normal, the transportation is normal, and the market price of ammonium nitrate is temporarily stable. In recent years, the market of ammonium nitrate manufacturers is normal, downstream procurement is on demand, domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers start normal operation, some manufacturers’ prices are stable, and the market price of ammonium nitrate is temporarily stable. Up to now, the mainstream of negotiation in Shaanxi is 2200-2300 yuan / ton, that in Shandong is 2000-2200 yuan / ton, and that in Hebei is 2400-2700 yuan / ton.

This week, the price trend of domestic concentrated nitric acid is temporarily stable, and the weekend price is 1450 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable this week. Jiangsu Hongze Yinzhu Chemical Co., Ltd. quoted 1350 yuan / ton; Anhui Jinhe offered 1400 yuan / T; Shandong helitai offered 1700 yuan / T. Anhui Aodeli quoted 1400 yuan / ton; Wenshui County synthetic chemical industry quoted 1580 yuan / ton. In the near future, the price of concentrated ammonium nitrate is stable, and the price of nitric acid plant is stable in the market, and the price of some nitric acid plants is stable.

The price trend of upstream liquid ammonia rose this week, and the price of liquid ammonia slightly increased by 1.08%. The start-up of liquid ammonia plant was normal, the spot supply was normal, and the market price of liquid ammonia rose slightly. However, after the peak season of fertilizer use, the downstream demand has not improved significantly, and it is unable to continue to drive the rise of liquid ammonia Market. The purchasing power of downstream nitrogen fertilizer manufacturers has slowed down obviously, and most of them are mainly on demand. At present, the supply and demand of the market is generally in a balanced stage, and the price trend of liquid ammonia market is stable. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the current quotation of liquid ammonia in northern China is about 2700-2800 yuan / ton. The price trend of upstream raw materials is temporarily stable, but the downstream demand is not significantly improved, and the market price trend of ammonium nitrate is temporarily stable.

In the near future, the demand of the downstream civil explosive industry is limited, and the production and sales of nitro compound fertilizer are generally. The price trend of raw material market is temporarily stable, which has a certain cost support for the ammonium nitrate Market. The ammonium nitrate analysts of the business society believe that the market price of ammonium nitrate may stabilize temporarily in the future.

In June, the price trend of adipic acid continued the consolidation market in May, and the price rise and fall was weak and the market was calm. According to the data of the business agency, the price of adipic acid increased slightly in June, but the monthly decline was only 0.9%. As shown in the figure above, the price of adipic acid mainly fluctuated between 100-200 yuan / ton. As of May 29, the mainstream quotation of adipic acid in East China was generally 6500-6800 yuan / ton.

In terms of upstream cost, crude oil continued to consolidate at a high level, and its impact on the downstream was gradually weakened. Pure benzene, the upstream product of adipic acid, decreased significantly in June, and the high level fell. From the beginning of June to now, as of June 30, and the business agency monitoring shows that the decline of pure benzene is 6.67% (as shown in the figure below). At present, the weak market of adipic acid is mainly affected by supply and demand. In May, the sharp rise of pure benzene by 15% did not bring fundamental benefits to adipic acid. In June, pure benzene was recalled, adipic acid still did not follow, and the contradiction between supply and demand was still the main reason that puzzled adipic acid market out of the haze Because.

In terms of market supply, the operating rate of enterprises remained high in June, basically above 80%. The supply of goods is sufficient, and the pressure of manufacturers’ inventory is high. And the shipping strength is not good. At present, although most of the dealers have returned to normal picking up goods, the current downstream demand is affected by the weakening domestic demand and the suppression of overseas epidemic situation. The dealers are still relatively cautious in taking delivery of goods, and some dealers purchase according to the order, rather than inventory operation. Generally speaking, the market has been showing a high trend of both enterprise inventory and market inventory, and de stocking may continue in the future.

From the perspective of terminal demand, the downstream demand has not changed compared with may, and is still in the off-season level. The operating rate of downstream factories has not significantly increased, and the overall consumption level of nylon 66 and polyurethane industry has not increased significantly, which is difficult to boost the market of upstream raw materials. Especially affected by the operating rate of downstream real estate sector generally lower than that of the same period last year, the sales of polyurethane and other thermal insulation materials are also lower than that of the same period last year. In addition, downstream products such as PA66 did not get out of the dilemma. In June, the price of PA66 was still hovering at a low level. Although there was an upward trend, the increase was quite limited. As of June 30, PA66 rose by nearly 0.53% in the whole month (as shown in the figure below). The basic reason why adipic acid price is difficult to get out of the downturn is the low end demand. In addition, in addition to the weak domestic demand, external demand has also worsened. Especially affected by the overseas epidemic situation, the external demand continues to decline, and the export trade orders of overseas terminal footwear, leather and other manufacturing industries have declined, and the terminal demand may further shrink in June. As the delivery of export orders in the previous period has been completed, the number of new orders has dropped sharply, which may further force enterprises to reduce the burden To relieve supply pressure.

In the later stage, the business club believes that the current oil price has reached a periodic high, and it has slightly stopped rising and falling due to the expansion of overseas epidemic situation at the end of this month, and the recovery trend of chemical industry has also been restrained to a certain extent, and the fundamentals are mainly empty. In addition, the cost side is affected by the callback of pure benzene, and the price support of hexanedioic acid is weakened, which does not rule out the subsequent decline. More importantly, the demand side still can not be seen He Lihao, adipic acid has been consolidation in a narrow range for two consecutive months from May to June. The so-called long-term decline is inevitable. In the context of demand slowdown caused by the current epidemic situation, it is not ruled out that adipic acid prices may continue to explore lower.