1、 Price trend of epichlorohydrin

(Figure: P value curve of epichlorohydrin product)

2、 Market analysis

Epichlorohydrin market is weak this week. As of September 25, the average price quoted by epichlorohydrin enterprises was 11333.33 yuan / ton, down 1.45% compared with the beginning of the week, and 8.63% higher than that of August 25, according to the data of business club. This week, the raw material propylene (Shandong) market slightly up and down, epichlorohydrin supply has not changed much. Shippers mainly deliver orders, and the downstream just needs to replenish before the festival, but the high-end price transaction is slightly weak, and the market is stable and weak. As the downstream replenishment is coming to an end, the market atmosphere turns light.

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the price of epichlorohydrin of some enterprises is summarized (for reference only, the spot price of merchants is subject to the market, and the actual transaction price is mainly negotiated.)

Enterprise market price specification date

Aite (Shandong) new materials Co., Ltd. 10800 yuan / ton, excellent products; 99.9% Min: 2020-09-26

Jinan planhua Chemical Co., Ltd. 10800 yuan / T national standard 99.9-2020-09-25

Shandong Yukang Chemical Co., Ltd. $11500 / T premium product; 99.9% Min: 2020-09-25

Jinan Mingyu Chemical Co., Ltd. 11500 yuan / ton national standard 99.9-2020-09-24

Jinan Mingwei Chemical Co., Ltd.? 11500 yuan / ton; 99.9% Min: September 24, 2020

Jinan aochen Chemical Co., Ltd. $11000 / T premium product; 99.9% Min: 2020-09-23

For upstream propylene, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market price dropped slightly this week (9.21-9.25) and then rose slightly, with the initial price of 7467 yuan / ton; at the weekend, the weekly high price was 7469 yuan / ton, with a weekly increase of 0.02%; on Wednesday and Thursday, the weekly low price was 7465 yuan / ton, and the weekly amplitude was only 0.05%.

Downstream epoxy resin, on September 25, the downstream epoxy resin shock finishing operation, the raw material price weakened, the cost support weakened, but the factory spot supply was limited, the new single offer remained high.

3、 Future forecast

The analysts of epichlorohydrin of the business agency believe that the recent high price of raw material propylene, strong cost support, approaching double knots, the market atmosphere has been weakened. It is expected that the epichlorohydrin market may be stable in the short term, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the market news guidance.

1、 Price trend

At present, after the domestic styrene price falls, the overall operation is between 5330-5435 yuan / ton. The average price of EPS was 7937 yuan / ton, and the price fell weakly. The supply of EPS goods increased, but the replenishment of traders was still not smooth.

2、 Market analysis

The supply of goods in the market has increased, the downstream goods are still not smooth, the tight supply situation still needs time to ease, the terminal demand has not improved significantly, and the on-site trading is general. EPS Market: EPS market price is stable, Wuxi Xingda EPS ex factory price, common material quotation is 7800 yuan / ton. The ex factory price of Dongying Hailong EPS is 7850 yuan / ton.

3、 Future forecast

EPS market business operation is still cautious, Dongguan area production or further increase, EPS production or a small increase, it is expected that EPS prices will be dominated by weak shocks.

1、 Price trend

This week, the selling price of sulphuric acid in Shandong is stable temporarily, with the quotation of 392.50 yuan / ton. Overall, this week’s sulfuric acid market temporarily stable, September 18 sulfuric acid commodity index was 61.06.

2、 Market analysis

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the price of mainstream sulfuric acid manufacturers in Shandong this week is temporarily stable, the manufacturers’ inventory is small, and the downstream demand is strong. Heze Jiangyuan quoted 380 yuan / ton at the weekend, which was temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week; Zouping Tianlu offered 270 yuan / ton at the weekend, which was temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week; Jinan Yuanfei quoted 350 yuan / T, which was temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week; kunshengda of Taiyuan City quoted 570 yuan / T at the weekend, which was temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chain, the upstream sulfur market has risen slightly recently, and the cost support is good. However, the market of monoammonium phosphate and diammonium phosphate in the lower reaches has a positive impact on sulfuric acid, and the price of bromine is also rising steadily. There are many favorable factors in the downstream. At the same time, some sulfuric acid factories are short of operation recently, the load is reduced, and the supply of sulfuric acid is in short supply.

3、 Future forecast

In late September, the market of sulfuric acid in Shandong Province rose mainly due to small fluctuation. The price of sulfur in the upstream has risen slightly in recent years, and the downstream market has been consolidated at a high level. The demand for sulfuric acid in the downstream is positive, and the product trend is upward under the contradiction between supply and demand. The sulfuric acid analysts of the business agency believe that the short-term Shandong market in the supply and demand and raw materials and other aspects of the impact of sulfuric acid market or a small rise.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, the average ex factory price of domestic light potassium carbonate at the beginning of the week was 6187.50 yuan / ton, and the average price of domestic light potassium carbonate at the weekend was 6175.00 yuan / ton, a decrease of 0.2%. The current price was down 0.4% month on month, and the current price was 4.08% lower than last year.

This week, the domestic potash market fell slightly, while the demand side was weak. Downstream factories took more goods on demand, curbing the price rise, and the price adjustment was not large. According to the statistics of the business agency, the mainstream ex factory quotation range of domestic industrial grade potassium carbonate this week is about 5900-6400 yuan / ton (the quotation is for reference only), and the quotation is different according to the purchase situation.

This week, the market of potassium chloride continued to rise, the supply of port goods continued to be large, most of the ports have large supply, but the supply of 62% white potassium in the south is relatively tight, and the price is higher than that in the north, driving up the price in the northern market. Although the potassium chloride market rose, but the support for potassium carbonate has not been reflected for the time being, which may drive the potassium carbonate market higher in the later period.

Potassium carbonate analysts of the business club believe that the market price of potassium chloride has continued to rise in the near future, but most of them are source transactions between traders. The actual demand for downstream factories is not obvious. The supply of potash fertilizer market is relatively sufficient, and the market rate is in a stalemate state. It is expected that the price of potassium carbonate will rise slightly in the short term, and the long-term market still needs to wait and see. (the above prices are provided by major potassium nitrate manufacturers all over the country and analyzed by potassium carbonate analysts of business club for reference only. Please contact relevant manufacturers for more price details.).

The off-season August has passed, and the propane Market in the traditional sales peak season has come, but it has not been able to go up as expected. Propane entered the market in September, showing a continuous downward trend. According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average market price of propane was 3457.00 yuan / ton on September 3 and 3350.00 yuan / ton on September 10, with a decrease of 3.11% during the period, which was the same as that on August 1.

Jinjiu has entered the traditional sales peak season. As the weather gradually turns cold, the industry has greater expectations of market demand. However, at present, Jinjiu has passed one third. Propane market performance is too pessimistic, and it does not show an upward trend. Instead, it falls again and again. At present, there are many negative factors in the market, which bring too much pressure to propane upward.

On the news surface, the falling cost of imported gas and the severe decline of international crude oil are one of the main reasons for the decline of propane. Due to the impact of the weakening demand caused by the epidemic situation, WTI fell by nearly 8%, and Brent crude oil fell below $40 / barrel for the first time since June. Secondly, although CP rose in September, the increase did not meet the expectation, which provided limited support to the market. Then there is demand. Due to the slow improvement of terminal demand, there is no obvious change in the current market. The overall downward trend of the civil LPG market has brought about obvious constraints on the market. At present, although the overall output of domestic refineries has been reduced, the market supply is still sufficient. At present, there are many negative factors, the downstream mentality is cautious, more on-demand replenishment, the enthusiasm for entering the market is not high. Manufacturers blocked shipment, inventory gradually accumulated, continue to reduce prices, profit delivery.

Regional specification September 10

Propane in East China,% (V / V) not less than: 952850-3300 yuan / ton

Propane in North China,% (V / V) not less than: 953300-3460 yuan / ton

Propane in Shandong area,% (V / V) not less than: 953200-3400 yuan / ton

Propane in South China,% (V / V) not less than: 952880-2980 yuan / ton

Propane in Central China,% (V / V) not less than: 953050-3400 yuan / ton

Propane in Northeast China,% (V / V) not less than: 95 3280-3800 yuan / ton

At present, there are some differences in the domestic propane market trend among different regions, only a small part of the region remains stable, and most other regions are weak in reducing the price.

International crude oil: on September 8, the U.S. WTI crude oil futures market price plummeted, and the settlement price of the main contract was $36.76/barrel, down $3.01. Brent crude oil futures market prices fell sharply, the main contract settlement price to 39.78 US dollars / barrel, down 2.23 US dollars. WTI fell nearly 8%, and Brent crude oil fell below $40 / barrel for the first time since June due to concerns that demand may be restrained due to the aggravation of the global epidemic, and the resonance impact of sharp falls in US technology stocks and energy stocks.

In terms of the international market, Saudi Aramco announced CP in September 2020, with propane at $365 / T, stable compared with the previous month; butane at $355 / T, up $10 / T from last month.

At present, the continuous downward trend of international crude oil has a significant drag on the market, and the civil LPG market is mainly weak. The domestic refineries supply is stable and the port supply is sufficient. Although Jinjiu has arrived, the terminal demand has not been significantly improved, the demand has not been followed up, and the downstream wait-and-see mood is strong and the mentality is more cautious. At present, the CP price is expected to fall in October, and there are many negative factors, all of which have brought constraints on the upward road of the market. It is expected that the propane market may still fall in the short term. In the long run, terminal demand is still the main problem.

1、 Price trend

According to the data from the business club’s bulk list, the domestic xylene market trend is stable this week. As of Friday, the domestic average price is about 3510 yuan / ton, which is flat compared with last week.

2、 Analysis and comment

Xylene price trend this week is generally stable. Port inventory continued to fall, but it was still high. As of the end of this week, East China was about 125000 tons, and continued to drop by 9000 tons compared with last week. Therefore, the pressure to go to the warehouse still exists. Market oversupply, downstream PX units restart, gasoline blending demand shows signs of improvement, isomer xylene demand slightly improved, market transactions improved, overall supply and demand situation tends to be stable. The upstream raw material naphtha continued to rise, the downstream product paraxylene fell, and the marginal profit margin of MX industry remained low. According to CFR calculation, the price difference of px-mx narrowed to about $93 / T. At present, the mainstream price in East China is about 3700 yuan / ton. The market continued to pay attention to the impact of the geopolitical situation on the supply of crude oil due to the new coronavirus epidemic, the impact of the geopolitical situation in the Middle East on the supply of crude oil, the continued spread of the overseas epidemic delayed the impact of economic restart on the demand for crude oil, and the progress of the European and American economic recovery rescue plan.

Upstream, for crude oil, moderate fuel demand at the end of the summer led investors to be cautious about crude oil prices, adding to the stock market crash later this week, resulting in the largest weekly decline in WTI crude oil and distribution since June. As of Friday, spot Brent fell $3.665/barrel to close at $41.21/barrel, down 8.17% month on month. Analysts and traders were bearish on the outlook for crude oil next week. The future crude oil demand outlook and oil price trend mainly depend on the global epidemic trend and the orderly recovery of various countries’ economies. Meanwhile, the progress of the new crown vaccine, the linkage with the US dollar index and the stock market, and how oil producing countries and oil companies adjust their production are also important factors affecting oil prices.

Downstream, in terms of PX market, the listed price of Sinopec’s enterprises in China this week was about 4600 yuan / ton, and the latest external price was about 536.5 US dollars / ton FOB Korea and 554.5 US dollars / ton CFR China. It is expected that the short-term PX market will be a small correction. In terms of PTA market, the market price rebounded slightly this week. The domestic PTA spot market price is about 3603 yuan / ton, and the external price is about 446 US dollars / ton CFR China. PTA price is expected to fall slightly next week. In terms of ox market, Sinopec’s o-benzene quotation is stable, with the price of 4400 yuan / ton, and the external price of o-benzene is about 514 US dollars / ton FOB Korea and 529 US dollars / ton CFR China. It is expected that the price of o-benzene will fall slightly next week.

3、 Future forecast

Xylene analysts of the chemical branch of the business society think: first, look at the supply cost side, the total number of us oil drilling and EIA, API inventory data, and the implementation of OPEC + production reduction. Second, on the demand side, the impact of the continuous spread of the global second epidemic on the economic restart of crude oil demand, the progress of industrial chain recovery, the geopolitical situation of the Middle East and China and the United States, and the economic and trade situation of Europe and the United States. Third, look at the dollar index and stock market linkage. Next week, we will focus on the fluctuation of US dollar index and stock market, and the impact of Sino US economic and trade situation on the trend of crude oil. Overall, it is expected that xylene prices in the domestic market will adjust next week.

According to statistics, in August, the domestic price of p-xylene was stable. At the beginning of the month, the domestic price was 4600 yuan / ton, and at the end of the month, the domestic PX market price was 4600 yuan / ton. The price trend was stable, with a year-on-year decrease of 30.83%. The price fluctuation of PX was the main external price fluctuation. The domestic PX market had a high degree of external dependence. The external price fluctuation had a certain guiding effect on the domestic price.

In recent years, the domestic market price trend of p-xylene is temporarily stable. The domestic PX operating rate is about 60%. Sinochem Hongrun Petrochemical Co., Ltd. has put into operation a 600000 ton new unit, Yangzi Petrochemical plant has been running stably, fuhaichuang plant has been operating in one line, Pengzhou petrochemical plant has been running stably, Yangzi Petrochemical plant has been operating normally, Jinling Petrochemical plant has been running smoothly, Qingdao Lidong unit has been operating at full load, Qilu Petrochemical Company has been operating steadily The operation of the unit is stable. The start-up of Urumqi petrochemical plant is about 50%. The domestic supply of p-xylene is normal. Affected by crude oil price fluctuation, the domestic PX market price trend is stable. The international crude oil price rose slightly in August, while the external price of PX fluctuated mainly. As of the 28th, the closing prices in Asia were 517-519 USD / T FOB Korea and 535-537 USD / T CFR China. Recently, the operation rate of PX units in Asia has been stable. Generally speaking, the operating rate of PX units in Asia is about 60%. The supply of PX goods in Asia is normal. The closing price of PX in August has little change in China The price trend of p-xylene market is stable.

With the gradual recovery of the economy, crude oil demand has picked up. In August, the international crude oil price closed at more than $40 / barrel. As of the 28th, the main contract settlement price of WTI crude oil futures market in the United States was 42.97 US dollars / barrel, and that of Brent crude oil futures market was 45.81 dollars / barrel. On the one hand, under the influence of the hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico, the shutdown supply of oil facilities decreased In the medium term, oil prices do not have the fundamentals of a substantial upward trend. In addition, under the OPEC + oil producing countries’ agreement on production reduction, the scale of production reduction will gradually decrease, and there is a certain risk in the supply side in the medium and long term. What’s more, there are still great risks in the epidemic situation in Europe, America and Asia and the pace of demand recovery It may be affected by the epidemic situation for a long time. The crude oil price fluctuates at a high level, and the price trend of p-xylene market is stable.

In August, the price trend of downstream PTA market did not change much, and the domestic PTA spot market remained low and volatile. As of the end of the month, the average price of PTA market was about 3570 yuan / T, down 31.16% year on year. In August, the domestic PTA market was weak and volatile, new units were put into operation, terminal demand was weak, supply increased, inventory was high, fundamentals were under negative pressure, and the price was mainly fluctuating. At the end of the month, the cost end support and terminal demand were bargain hunting, and the tail showed a small decline. Affected by the low price of downstream PTA market, the domestic p-xylene market price trend was temporarily stable.

Chen Ling, PX analyst of the business agency, believes that the crude oil price has remained mainly volatile in recent years, coupled with the slow recovery of domestic and foreign trade at the terminal, and the unstable order performance, the current raw material procurement remains mainly rigid demand. If the follow-up orders can not be followed up in time, it is expected that the market price of p-xylene in September will remain stable.