1、 Price trend

According to the data monitoring of business news agency, the average price of domestic LNG on March 29 was 3593.33 yuan / ton, up 2.56% from the previous day (the 26th), 27.14% from the beginning of the month, and 10.3% from the same period last year.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

On the 29th, the domestic liquefied natural gas market rose, and the liquid prices in Shaanxi, Ningxia, Inner Mongolia and other places rose actively, with the increase range of 50-200 yuan / ton. The market once again turned red, ushering in a wave of rising sentiment. This rise is mainly due to the support of cost side, downstream demand volume, and low operation of local manufacturers’ devices, which jointly boost the rise of liquid price. In early April, the price of Northwest raw gas rose to 1.98 yuan / m3, which led to market sentiment. In addition, the liquid price continued to decline recently, and the manufacturers were willing to support the price out of the stop loss mentality. Near the Qingming Festival holiday, the demand of downstream increased before the festival, the transaction atmosphere improved, the liquid factory shipment turned smooth, and the price rose. At present, the contradiction between supply and demand is not obvious. With the help of a favorable breeze, the price of liquid rises against the wind. However, the domestic market is impacted by the low price, and the demand is restrained in the off-season. It is difficult for the rising market to last.

On March 29, domestic liquefied natural gas (LNG) was generally up, with mixed ups and downs in some areas. Inner Mongolia 3600-3800 yuan / ton, actively push up, Shaanxi 3580-3800 yuan / ton, reluctant to sell up, Shanxi 3650-3800 yuan / ton, support the market, Ningxia 3800-3900 yuan / ton, good trading, Henan 3750-3900 yuan / ton, steady rise, Hebei 3580-3700 yuan / ton, mixed rise and fall.

Regional specifications: March 29 March 26

Inner Mongolia LNG 3600-3800 3500-3750 50-300

Shaanxi ﹣ LNG ﹣ 3580-3800 ﹣ 3450-3680 ﹣ 100-350

Shanxi LNG 3650-3800 3600-3800 up 0-50

Ningxia LNG 3800-3900 3580-3630 170-270

Henan ﹣ LNG ﹣ 3750-3900 ﹣ 3650-3750 ﹣ up 100-150

Most downstream products rose:

In recent weeks, the domestic methanol market was “calm”. According to the monitoring of the business society, the domestic methanol market price was 2425 yuan / ton on March 16, and 2330 yuan / ton on March 26, with a decrease of 3.92% in the cycle, a rise of 2.06% month on month and a year-on-year increase of 42.73%. On the mainland side, the spring inspection is in its peak period, and the supply is shrinking obviously; on the port side, the inventory is still in the process of de stocking, but it is weaker than that of the mainland. With the return of imports, there is an expectation of accumulating the inventory.

On March 29, the reference price of liquid ammonia was 3903.33, up 16.17% compared with March 1 (3360.00). At present, the shortage of liquid ammonia supply is difficult to solve in a short time, and the overhaul of some plants may last for a long time. The Henan plant may face a long-term overhaul, and the market supply will continue to be good in the short term. It is not ruled out that the price of liquid ammonia will continue to rise next week.

Urea, March 29, Shandong urea market rose, demand: agricultural demand is mainly sporadic procurement; downstream compound fertilizer, plastic plate plant start load increased slightly, most of the market-oriented. Supply side: at present, the operating rate of urea enterprises is about 80%, and the daily output is about 160000 tons. The start-up load of urea enterprises is increased and the supply side is sufficient. International aspect: the lowest bid price for the east coast is 379.87 USD / T CFR, while the lowest bid price for the west coast is 380.18 USD / T CFR, with a total bid volume of 1.926 million tons. It is more suitable for China to supply goods to the east coast of India. The domestic arrival price is about 2210 yuan / ton, which is not different from the current domestic price. It is reported that the domestic urea export volume may be about 800000-900000 tons. In addition, the nitrogen fertilizer plant with an annual output of 1.7 million tons of urea in India has exploded recently, and the medium scalar quantity may be improved, and even the bidding will be held again in April.

3、 Future forecast

Liquefied natural gas analysts of business news agency believe that: at present, the price rise of gas source has boosted the market sentiment, superimposed the downstream replenishment before the festival, the low operation of local manufacturers’ devices and good profits, and jointly boosted the rise of liquid price. It is expected that the price of domestic liquefied natural gas will rise steadily in the short term, but the low price will impact the domestic market, and the demand in the off-season will be contained, so there is room for this rise Limited, the future may continue to be weak.

According to the monitoring of the business community, the price of phthalic anhydride in the domestic market fell sharply in March. As of the 26th, the quotation of phthalic anhydride was 6075 yuan / ton, down 23.34% compared with 7925 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, up 31.35% year on year. Recently, the price trend of phthalic anhydride continued to fall, the spot supply was normal, and the market of phthalic anhydride continued to fall.

In recent years, the market price of phthalic anhydride has fallen sharply, the market delivery of phthalic anhydride is general, the downstream demand has decreased in the near future, the price trend of o-benzene has dropped sharply, the plasticizer market has declined, and the negative factors have led to the market price of phthalic anhydride falling continuously. Domestic phthalic anhydride manufacturers started at a low level, and the operating rate of phthalic anhydride on the site was about 60%. The domestic phthalic anhydride spot supply was sufficient, and the price of phthalic anhydride on the site was lower. The downstream plasticizer industry market declined, and the actual transaction situation was general. The price trend of phthalic anhydride market in East China is declining, with limited high-end transactions in the market. The mainstream of neighboring France source negotiation in East China is 6000-6200 yuan / ton, and naphthalene method source negotiation is 5900-6000 yuan / ton. The mainstream quotation of phthalic anhydride market in North China is 6000-6200 yuan / ton. The market outlook of phthalic anhydride is still in the market, and the downstream procurement is poor. The recent downward trend of DOP market in the downstream is affected Prices have fallen sharply.

Since March, the price trend of domestic o-benzene has dropped sharply, and the market price has dropped to 5700 yuan / ton, with a decrease of 12.31%. The decline of domestic o-benzene price is a big bad news for phthalic anhydride market. In addition, the market of imported o-benzene in port area has declined, the external quotation of o-benzene has declined, and the import of o-benzene in port area has increased. Recently, the inventory of o-benzene in port has increased, and the external quotation of o-benzene has dropped sharply The international transaction price is subject to negotiation. The price trend of o-benzene is declining. The price of raw material o-benzene is lower, which is bad for the domestic market price of phthalic anhydride. Recently, the market price of phthalic anhydride has dropped sharply.

The market price of the downstream DOP of phthalic anhydride dropped sharply. According to the monitoring of the business community, the domestic DOP price was 12025 yuan / ton by the 26th, and the price dropped by 12.86% in March. The low starting point of the equipment of DOP enterprises in the yard was temporarily stable. With the sharp drop of the price of isooctanol, the cost of DOP decreased, the gap of DOP decline increased, and the DOP price plummeted. With the increase of the operating rate of DOP enterprises, the pressure of supply and demand is alleviated, the demand support is weakened, the rising power of DOP in the future is weakened, and the downward pressure is increased. In the future, the cost of DOP decreased, the operating rate of enterprises increased, the support of DOP rise weakened, and the high price caused the cost pressure of downstream products. The downstream customers were more resistant to high price DOP. The overall DOP price was about 12000-12400 yuan / ton, the domestic demand for phthalic anhydride did not improve, and the market price of phthalic anhydride dropped significantly.

On the whole, the recent trend of crude oil price has fallen sharply. In addition, the downward pressure of downstream plasticizer industry has increased, the DOP price has been declining, and the price of o-benzene has a downward trend. It is expected that the market price of phthalic anhydride will decline slightly in the future.

1、 Price trend

The factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China rose this week. The average price of the factory quotation of the mainstream manufacturers of Northwest calcium carbide rose from 4716.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 5116.67 yuan / ton at the weekend, up 400 yuan / T, or 8.48%, up 87.88% compared with the same period last year. Overall, the market of calcium carbide rose this week, with the carbide commodity index of 134.06 on March 19, and the price of calcium carbide fell at the weekend.

2、 Trend analysis

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China increased this week: ovicana energy offered 5150 yuan / ton of calcium carbide this weekend, up 200 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week; the price of calcium carbide in Inner Mongolia and China Federation of China this weekend was 5200 yuan / ton, up 300 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week; the quotation of the carbide in Xingping of Ningxia was 5000 yuan / T this weekend, which increased by 700 yuan / T compared with the beginning of the week .

From the upstream and downstream industrial chain of calcium carbide, the upstream raw material market, this week, the factory quotation of Lancang was low consolidation. The quotation for small materials is 720 yuan / ton this weekend, which is temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week; the quotation of Chinese materials is 800 yuan / ton this weekend, which is temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week; the quotation for bulk materials is 860 yuan / ton this weekend, which is temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week. The upstream raw material price is low consolidation, and the cost support is general, which has a negative impact on the price of calcium carbide.

Downstream market, PVC factory prices this week rose slightly. PVC quotation rose from 8725.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 8962.50 yuan / ton at the weekend, up 2.72%. It was up 44.85% year on year. PVC prices rose slightly this week, the market was better, and downstream enthusiasm for calcium carbide procurement increased. Overall, it seems that the PVC market this week has a positive impact on the price of calcium carbide.

3、 Future forecast

In late March, the calcium carbide market was mainly subject to a small fluctuation. Raw materials orchid carbon price low consolidation, calcium carbide cost support is general. Although the downstream PVC market recently slightly increased, but at the end of the month, foreign PVC factories resumed work, domestic PVC started or decreased. The market forecast that the price of calcium carbide in Northwest China will fall slightly in late March.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business community, the average price of EPS common material was 10950 yuan / ton on March 15 at the beginning of this week, and 10650 yuan / ton on March 19 at the end of this week, up 17.51% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

As of March 18, styrene spot in Jiangsu was about 8650 yuan / ton, down 555 yuan / ton or 6.03% compared with the closing price of 9205 yuan / ton on March 11. EPS market shipment is flat, downstream purchasing is mainly just need, some businesses wait and see carefully, waiting for the opportunity to fill the position.

The ex factory price of EPS fell sharply, and the inventory pressure of most EPS factories was obvious. As of March 18, Jiangyin Jianlong’s ordinary material was 10400 yuan / ton, down 500 yuan / ton, down 4.59% on a month on month basis, and fuel was 10700 yuan / ton, down 500 yuan / ton, down 4.46% on a month on month basis.

3、 Future forecast

At present, the demand for packaging and sheet materials is increasing slowly, and the cost pressure is obvious. It is expected that the EPS market will be weak in the next week.

In the near future, although the external price has been continuously reduced, the shortage of goods in Northeast China has benefited the market, and the domestic butadiene market has entered a period of narrow consolidation. According to the sample data monitored by the business community, as of March 15, the domestic butadiene market price was 8446 yuan / ton, with a month on month increase of 34.48% and a year-on-year increase of 35.50%.

Northeast a small number of sources of wide price increase transactions, domestic butadiene market offer quickly follow up. The sudden turn of the market led to some downstream inquiries. However, the spot supply in East China market is abundant at present. With the restart of Yangzi Petrochemical and Nanjing Chengzhi plant, the overall domestic supply shows an incremental trend. With the inflow of slightly lower price goods from East China into Shandong, the market atmosphere is gradually weakening. Although the northern business offer intention is strong, but the downstream inquiry is relatively cautious, the transaction is poor, drag the market to push up and then slightly weak consolidation.

In terms of enterprises, Sinopec East China butadiene supply price is stable at 8500 yuan / T; Shenhua Ningmei butadiene is normally exported at 8260 yuan / T, up 100 yuan / T on a month on month basis; a 60000 T / a butadiene plant of Yangzi Petrochemical was restarted around March 7, and is now in stable operation; Puyang Bluestar 50000 T / a butadiene plant is in normal operation, and a small amount of goods are on sale, with price reference of 8700 yuan / T.

External price: as of March 12, the external price of butadiene in Asia rose: FOB Korea closed at US $1135-1145 / T, up US $70 / T; CFR China closed at US $1165-1175 / T, up US $60 / T. The external price of butadiene in Europe rose: FOB Rotterdam closed at 955-965 USD / ton, up 50 USD / ton; FD northwest Europe closed at 755-765 EUR / ton, stable.

In the future, on the one hand, the supply side of East China and domestic suppliers is relatively abundant, on the other hand, the inventory of downstream raw materials is relatively abundant, and the market’s ability to accept high price sources needs to be followed up. Business community butadiene analysts expect that the domestic butadiene market will be slightly consolidated in the short term.

Domestic price trend:

From the PX trend chart, we can see that the PX price trend is stable this week. As of the end of the week, the domestic PX ex factory price is 6700 yuan / ton, which is the same as that at the beginning of the week, with a year-on-year increase of 21.82%. The PX external price trend is volatile this week, and the domestic PX market is highly dependent on foreign countries. The high external price has a certain positive impact on domestic prices.

In recent years, the domestic PX operation rate is more than 60%. Sinopec Hongrun Petrochemical 600000 ton unit operates stably, Yangzi petrochemical unit operates stably, Pengzhou petrochemical unit operates stably, Yangzi Petrochemical PX unit operates normally, Jinling Petrochemical unit operates stably, Qingdao Lidong unit operates at full load, Qilu petrochemical unit operates stably, and Urumqi petrochemical unit starts at about 50% The supply of xylene is general, but there are many overhauls of overseas units, and the domestic price trend of p-xylene remains high. The recent international crude oil price trend is volatile, and the PX external price has little change. As of the 11th, the closing price of Asian region is 827-829 USD / T FOB Korea and 845-847 USD / T CFR China. The recent Asian PX unit operating rate has little change. Overall, the Asian PX unit operating rate is less than 60%, the Asian PX supply is general, and the PX external closing price has little change, which is affected by the external factors The domestic market price of p-xylene was affected by the market price.

Recently, oil prices remain at a high level. The OPEC said on Thursday that the recovery of oil demand will be concentrated in the second half of the year. COVID-19′s influence will not help the organization and its allies to support the market. In the monthly report, OPEC said that oil demand in 2021 will increase by 5.89 million barrels per day, or 6.5%, slightly higher than that of last month. On March 11, the settlement price of the main contract in the U.S. WTI crude oil futures market was US $66.02 per barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract in the Brent crude oil futures market was US $69.63 per barrel, or US $1.73 or 2.6%. The rise of oil price is mainly due to the decline of us refined oil stocks and the resumption of production in Texas refineries. It is expected that the oversupply of crude oil will only be a short-term phenomenon. The high crude oil price is a good support for PX market, and the domestic price trend of p-xylene is temporarily stable.

In the near future, the price trend of PTA Market in the lower reaches has dropped sharply, and the domestic PTA spot market has declined. As of the 12th, the average price of PTA market was 4450-4500 yuan / ton, down 5.41%. PTA supply continues to be at a high level. Due to limited maintenance efforts, the operation rate of domestic PTA plant is about 79%. The terminal market resumed work in an orderly manner after the festival. As of March 12, the comprehensive operating rate of chemical fiber weaving in Jiangsu and Zhejiang areas has increased to more than 84%. The downstream market has been cautiously observed, with more inquiries, but the “order” is still hesitant, and the order has not been significantly improved. The sharp decline of PTA price in the downstream has a negative impact on the price of PX market in the upstream, and the price trend of PX market is temporarily stable.

Business community PX analyst Chen Ling believes that the current cost side still has some support, the short-term crude oil price will remain high volatility, but the downstream PTA product overhaul device may increase, and it is expected that the market price of p-xylene will remain stable in the future.

1、 Price trend

According to the business news agency, the price of steam coal rose this week. At the beginning of the week, the average port price of thermal coal was maintained at 573 yuan / ton, while at the end of the week, the average port price of thermal coal was maintained at 608.5 yuan / ton, with a price increase of 6.2%, and a year-on-year increase of 6.47%. On March 7, the steam coal commodity index was 73.31, unchanged from yesterday, down 41.35% from the cycle’s highest point of 125.00 (2021-01-19), and up 64.00% from the lowest point of 44.70 on January 20, 2016. (Note: period refers to 2011-09-01 to now).

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

In terms of producing areas, at the time of the two sessions, the overall production capacity has shrunk slightly. Due to the recovery of downstream industries, the demand for coal is increasing, and the number of coal hauling cars in coal mines is increasing significantly. The sales situation of mining areas in Shaanxi continued to improve, and the coal mines in the main producing areas increased.

In terms of downstream power plants: with the warming weather, the demand for civil power has dropped, but with the industrial enterprises in the downstream of steam coal gradually returning to normal production, the demand for steam coal has increased, the industrial power consumption is relatively strong, and the daily consumption of power plants has rebounded to a certain extent. The decline of thermal coal inventory drives the demand of power plants for thermal coal replenishment. Some data show that the inventory of power plants has fallen. Affected by the recent delay in purchasing and the rise of daily consumption, the inventory of power plants in eight coastal provinces has dropped from 28 million tons to 27 million tons. But now traders are more wait-and-see attitude, price is very selling.

Macro: according to the data released by the National Bureau of statistics on March 4, the national coal price fell in late February. The specific price changes of all kinds of coal are as follows: anthracite (washing block, volatile matter ≤ 8%) price is 950 yuan / ton, the same as the previous period. The price of ordinary blended coal (Shanxi pulverized coal and lump coal blended coal, calorific value 4500 kcal) was 461 yuan / ton, down 31.5 yuan / ton or 6.4% compared with the previous period. The price of Shanxi Dahua (better quality blended coal with calorific value of 5000 kcal) was 514.5 yuan / ton, down 35.5 yuan / ton or 6.5% compared with the previous period. Shanxi Youhun (high quality blended coal, calorific value 5500 kcal) price was 585.5 yuan / ton, down 52 yuan / ton or 8.2% compared with the previous period. The price of Datong blended coal (Datong blended coal, calorific value 5800 kcal) was 619 yuan / ton, down 48.5 yuan / ton or 7.3% compared with the previous period. The price of coking coal (main coking coal, sulfur content < 1%) is 1540 yuan / ton, which is the same as that of the previous period. The above data show that the national anthracite and coking coal prices remained stable in late February, while the steam coal prices continued to fall. In addition, in late February, the national price of coke (secondary metallurgical coke) was 2646 yuan / ton, down 80 yuan / ton or 2.9% from the previous period.

Business analysts believe that: at this stage, the daily consumption of power plants is rising, which drives the demand of power plants for steam coal replenishment, and traders mainly sell at low prices. The price of steam coal may have favorable support, and the price will rise. However, at this stage, the overall downstream demand has not been released, and the overall acceptance of the high price of steam coal is limited. On the whole, the price of steam coal may keep rising during the Spring Festival, but the increase is limited on the whole, and it depends on the downstream market demand.

According to the monitoring of the business community, the price of phthalic anhydride in the domestic market fell in the first week of March. As of the 5th, the price of phthalic anhydride was 7625 yuan / ton, which was 3.79% lower than the price of 7925 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, with a year-on-year increase of 33.77%. Recently, the price trend of phthalic anhydride fell down, the spot supply was normal, and the market of phthalic anhydride declined.

In recent years, the price trend of phthalic anhydride market has declined, and the market situation of phthalic anhydride is normal. In recent years, the downstream demand has decreased, the price trend of o-benzene has remained high, the plasticizer market has declined, and the poor demand has led to the price decline of phthalic anhydride. Domestic phthalic anhydride manufacturers started at a low level, and the operating rate of phthalic anhydride on the site was about 60%. The domestic phthalic anhydride spot supply was normal, the price of phthalic anhydride on the site was lower, the downstream plasticizer industry market was significantly lower, and the actual transaction situation was general. The price trend of phthalic anhydride market in East China is declining, with limited high-end transactions in the market. The mainstream of neighboring France source negotiation in East China is 7600-7700 yuan / ton, and naphthalene method source negotiation is 7400-7500 yuan / ton. The mainstream quotation of phthalic anhydride market in North China is 7500-7700 yuan / ton. The market outlook of phthalic anhydride still exists, and the downstream procurement is poor. The price of downstream DOP falls rapidly in March, which brings challenges to the phthalic anhydride market The market price of phthalic anhydride was lower.

In recent years, the price trend of domestic o-benzene has maintained a high level, and the market price has maintained a level of 6500 yuan / ton. The high price of domestic o-benzene is a good support for the phthalic anhydride market. In addition, the market of imported o-benzene in the port area has not changed much, and the external quotation of o-benzene has maintained a high level. The actual transaction price is subject to negotiation and detailed discussion. In addition, there is a strong wait-and-see mood among the o-benzene merchants in the market, and the price of o-benzene has gone down The price of raw material o-benzene is high, which is good for the domestic market price of phthalic anhydride, and the decline of market price of phthalic anhydride is limited.

In March, the market price of the downstream DOP of phthalic anhydride dropped sharply. According to the monitoring of the business community, the domestic DOP price was 13175 yuan / ton as of the 5th, and this week’s price dropped by 4.53%. The price of isooctanol in the market fell, the cost of DOP raw materials fell, the low start-up of DOP enterprises’ equipment was temporarily stable, the price of PVC fluctuated and fell, the demand of downstream customers was mainly just demand, and the customers were more resistant to high price DOP. Plasticizer market rising momentum weakened, downward pressure increased, the transaction price is based on the real-time price, the overall DOP price is about 13300-13500 yuan / ton, the domestic demand for phthalic anhydride is poor, and the market price is slightly lower.

Generally speaking, the crude oil price trend is strong in the near future, but the downstream plasticizer industry market trend is not good, the DOP price continues to decline, and it is expected that the market price of phthalic anhydride will continue to decline slightly in the later period.