According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the price increase in the domestic heavy rare earth market has slowed down. On July 27th, the rare earth index was 463 points, a decrease of 1 point from yesterday, a decrease of 54.02% from the highest point of 1007 points in the cycle (2022-02-24), and an increase of 70.85% from the lowest point of 271 points on September 13, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present)

The price increase of Dysprosium(III) oxide, dysprosium iron alloy and dysprosium metal in China is limited. As of the 28th, the price of Dysprosium(III) oxide was 2.31 million yuan/ton, up 0.87% this week; The price of dysprosium iron alloy is 2.215 million yuan/ton, with a price increase of 0.91% this week; The price of dysprosium metal is 2.93 million yuan/ton, with a price increase of 1.03% this week; The domestic price of terbium series is mainly fluctuating, with the domestic price of terbium oxide being 7.175 million yuan/ton and the price of metallic terbium being 9.15 million yuan/ton.

Recently, the price increase in the heavy rare earth market has slowed down, the blockade in Myanmar has been lifted, and the willingness of shippers to ship has significantly increased. In addition, the news of Vietnam’s rare earth production increase recently has had a certain impact on the psychology of merchants. Vietnam’s rare earth reserves are the second in the world, but the production is not outstanding. The news of production increase has had a certain impact on the rare earth industry. In terms of domestic orders, the long-term order submission procurement has come to an end, and the intention of heavy rare earth holding merchants to ship has increased. In addition, the supply of heavy rare earth minerals from Southeast Asia has increased, and the wait-and-see sentiment in the rare earth market remains. The bearish factors have slowed down the rise of heavy rare earth in China.

According to statistics, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in June completed 784000 and 806000 units respectively, with a month on month increase of 9.9% and 12.5%, and a year-on-year increase of 32.8% and 35.2%, respectively. From January to June, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 3.788 million and 3.747 million respectively, with year-on-year growth of 42.4% and 44.1%, respectively. Recently, the country has accelerated the construction of charging infrastructure to better support the deployment of new energy vehicles to rural areas, which is conducive to unleashing rural consumption potential and increasing sales of new energy vehicles. The increase in production and sales of new energy vehicles is beneficial for the domestic prices of medium and heavy rare earths, and the heavy rare earth market still has support.

After years of governance, the domestic rare earth industry has gradually formed a supply pattern with large groups as the main body and relatively concentrated raw materials. With the continuous development of the foreign rare earth industry, China’s share of rare earth production has decreased from 90% to 70%. According to statistics, China’s rare earth export data for June was 5008.9 tons, a year-on-year increase of 9.4%; From January to June 2023, a total of 26236.1 tons of rare earth commodities were exported, a year-on-year increase of 0.03%. The export volume of rare earth commodities in China increased, supporting the domestic rare earth market prices accordingly.

Future Market Forecast: In the near future, the supply of rare earth production enterprises has increased, but downstream demand has not actually improved. It is expected that the market price of heavy rare earth will mainly fluctuate in the short term, and there will be a lack of primary and renewable supply sources in the medium to long term. Dysprosium and terbium oxides will also face shortages. In addition, driven by emerging and traditional demands such as energy-saving machines, industrial robots, wind power, variable frequency air conditioning, and consumer electronics, The global demand for rare earth permanent magnets is expected to continue to grow.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the domestic BDO market went down unilaterally in July and slightly rebounded at the end of the month. From July 1st to 27th, the average price of domestic BDO decreased from 11421 yuan/ton to 10942 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 4.19% during the cycle, with a maximum amplitude of 4.57% and a year-on-year decrease of 18.21%.

The main factor affecting the BDO market this month is downstream demand. In the first half of the month, there were frequent reports of equipment maintenance by production enterprises, resulting in a decrease in supply, which to some extent boosted the market atmosphere. With the restart of some maintenance equipment, supply side support weakened. However, the demand side is in the traditional off-season, and most downstream industries are under cost pressure, suppressing procurement enthusiasm. At the same time, there is a strong sentiment of avoiding losses downstream of the terminal, with small orders in demand and severe price pressure. At the end of the month, the atmosphere slightly improved, but the price increase was not significant, and the market price rebounded by around 100 yuan/ton.

On the cost side, raw material calcium carbide: In July, the domestic calcium carbide market rebounded and reorganized, and the price of raw material blue charcoal stabilized at a low level. Cost support was average, and the downstream PVC market slightly increased, leading to an increase in downstream demand. On July 27th, the benchmark price of calcium carbide in Shangshang Society was 2933.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.73% compared to the beginning of this month (2883.33 yuan/ton). In terms of methanol, the domestic methanol market fluctuated and rose in July, with a monthly increase of 3.48%. Recently, there have been signs of recovery in the market for calcium carbide and methanol, but they are still at a low price, resulting in insufficient cost benefits for BDO.

On the demand side, the PTMEG industry has stable equipment operation and acceptable digestion of raw materials. The load of the PBT industry has dropped to around 58%, and some factories are buying at low prices to cover their positions; The workload of PU slurry and TPU industries in the polyurethane field has slightly increased, with a small amount of spot restocking but negotiation. The PBAT industry has not experienced significant changes in construction, and the overall demand for BDO is expected to increase in the short term, with a potential breakthrough in BDO demand.

In the future market forecast, there is no significant improvement in downstream demand at the end, and some downstream industries are experiencing a decline. BDO analysts from Business News predict that the domestic BDO market is mainly operating in a weak state.

According to monitoring data from Business Society, as of July 25, 2023, the domestic organic silicon DMC market price reference was 13300 yuan/ton. Compared with July 1 (organic silicon DMC reference 14140 yuan/ton), the price decreased by 840 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.94%.

From the data monitoring chart of the Business Society, it can be seen that since July (7.1-7.25), the overall domestic organic silicon DMC market has shown a weak decline. In early July, the domestic organic silicon DMC market has shown a weak decline, with weak downstream demand and insufficient support for organic silicon DMC demand. Market prices have continuously adjusted downwards. As of July 15th, the domestic organic silicon DMC market price has been around 13000-14000 yuan/ton, with a decline of 3.39% in the first ten days.

In late July, the focus of the silicone DMC market continued to move downwards. Downstream demand is not boosting well, and on-site supply is under pressure. At the end of the month, the organic silicon DMC market is actively shipping, and some factories and suppliers have lowered the price of organic silicon DMC by around 200-500 yuan/ton. As of July 25th, the domestic organic silicon DMC market price is referencing around 12800-13500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.94% during the month.

Prediction of the Future Trend of Organic Silicon DMC Market

At present, the trading atmosphere of organic silicon DMC on the market is mild. As the end of the month approaches, some downstream companies are preparing for stage by stage, and the supply side on the market is relatively active. The organic silicon DMC data analyst of the business agency believes that in the short term, the domestic organic silicon DMC market will mainly adjust and operate in a narrow range, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to changes in supply and demand news.

Since July, the domestic acetone market has been continuously rising. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the national acetone market has risen from 5432.5 yuan/ton on July 1st to 6075 yuan/ton on July 21st, a cumulative increase of 11.83%. The negotiated price of acetone market in East China was 5200-5250 yuan/ton on July 1, and the market price rose to 6000 yuan/ton on July 21, with a cumulative increase of 15.83%

The supply of domestic factories has decreased. Within the month, the load of Shenghong Refining and Chemical’s 650000 ton/year phenol ketone plant decreased to 60%, and Jiangsu Ruiheng’s 650000 ton/year low load operation supply was limited; Ningbo Taihua also experienced a brief shutdown of 630000 tons per year. It is reported that the Yangzhou Shiyou device is operating normally, but due to shipping issues, shipments are suspended and sales are limited. Major domestic factories have low inventory levels, no shipping pressure, and a decrease in social supply.

The supply of imported goods is limited, and inventory has repeatedly dropped to a low level near 10000 tons. On the 21st, the port inventory dropped to around 10000 tons, and there were few available goods in the market. In the low inventory state of the port, the recent arrival volume of the port is limited. On July 10th, the port inventory was 7500 tons, and on July 17th, the port inventory was only 15500 tons. According to statistics, the source of goods in transit is less than 3000 tons, and the short-term replenishment is limited. It is difficult to have much support for the supply side, and near the settlement of factory contracts, the domestic resources of traders are also limited. Traders have little intention of lowering their prices without pressure on supply.

Average price trend of acetone in the national market

The industry mentality has been boosted, and the enthusiasm for entering the market has increased. Under the tight supply of goods in the market and the difficulty of improving in the short term, the enthusiasm of intermediate traders to enter the market has increased, the willingness to stock has increased, and the inquiry atmosphere of major downstream factories entering the market has significantly improved, with the market focus constantly rising.

Downstream products such as MIBK and MMA have abundant profits, and some of them use bidding to provide support for the upward movement of acetone. However, with the rapid increase in market focus and resistance from other downstream factories, the profit margin has been squeezed, and the participation of traders has increased at the end of the month. However, there are many uncertain factors in the later stage, and acetone remains strong in the short term, making it difficult to have broad fluctuations. Pay attention to market transactions.

Price trend of domestic Sodium metabisulfite

According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, the price of Sodium metabisulfite in China this week moved forward steadily. The average price of industrial Sodium metabisulfite at the beginning of the week was 1866.67 yuan/ton, and the average price at the weekend was 1866.67 yuan/ton, moving forward steadily on the whole.

In the middle of July, the upstream raw materials stopped falling and recovered slightly, the raw material cost was volatile and stable, and the market price of Sodium metabisulfite was stable as a whole. This week, the domestic industrial Sodium metabisulfite market price range was 1800-2300 yuan/ton, and most prices were concentrated around 1800-1950 yuan/ton. The inventory of the enterprise is about 30%, and the willingness to stock downstream has increased after the cost recovery. (The above prices refer to external quotations from mainstream domestic enterprises, and some enterprises that have not been quoted are temporarily excluded from their scope. The prices are for reference only and are not related to the manufacturer’s final pricing. For more information, please contact each manufacturer for consultation.).

As of July 21, the price of soda ash has risen slightly by 1.02%, and the price of sulfur has risen significantly by 22.9%. The rebound of raw material cost will form a certain support for the future market price of Sodium metabisulfite.

Future Market Forecast

Analysts from the business society believe that raw materials have stopped falling and recovered, the willingness of downstream to stock up has increased, and the domestic market price of Sodium metabisulfite is expected to rise.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of Business Society, the price of mixed xylene has slightly increased this week. On July 10th, the benchmark price of mixed xylene was 7540 yuan/ton, while on July 14th, the benchmark price was 7700 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.12%.

2、 Analysis and Review

The market expects the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates by 25bp in July, and there is still financial pressure on oil prices; The June CPI data of the United States was lower than expected, and financial pressure has eased, leading to a rebound in market risk appetite; Saudi Arabia has stated that it will extend its voluntary production reduction of 1 million barrels per day for another month, while Russia has also stated that it will reduce production by 500000 barrels per day in August, bringing the total promised production reduction by OPEC+to 5.16 million barrels per day; China and India in the Asian region have driven oil demand growth of over 2 million barrels per day, easing concerns about economic recession in Europe and America.

Entering the summer season, the demand for tourism has increased, and the demand for gasoline is strong. The production enthusiasm of the main refinery has increased; Saudi Arabia’s lowering of official prices is beneficial for the oil market, while PX prices remain firm due to tight supply and demand and the economic feasibility of North American oil transfers; The supply of crude oil in major producing countries has contracted, coupled with positive monthly EIA reports, resulting in stronger short-term oil prices; The cost support for toluene is acceptable, but the short-term market preference is upward, and the price of toluene is relatively strong.

In terms of downstream px, the price of px has increased this week and remained stable over the weekend. On July 10th, the benchmark price of PX was 8250 yuan/ton, while on July 14th, the price was 8400 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.82%. PX has good profits, overall load has increased, and the supply side is showing a trend of oversupply; The downstream PTA market has shown strong performance, benefiting PX; The terminal polyester end load is at a relatively high position, boosting the confidence of industry chain operators, and the buying atmosphere in the PX market is still acceptable in the short term.

In terms of OX, this week’s OX consolidation and operation showed average transaction enthusiasm and market stability. On July 10th, the price of OX was 8100 yuan/ton, and on July 14th, it was 8100 yuan/ton. There was no change during the week. The upstream mixed xylene price of OX fluctuated and increased, while the downstream phthalic anhydride market stabilized. The purchasing enthusiasm of downstream customers was average, and the downstream demand market stabilized. The overall upward momentum of the adjacent benzene market weakened, and downward pressure remained. In the future, the adjacent benzene market was weak and stabilized.

In terms of gasoline, gasoline prices have rebounded after falling this week. On July 10th, the benchmark price of gasoline was 8658.40 yuan/ton, while on July 14th, the price was 8574.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.97%. As the temperature gradually rises, the demand for gasoline in cars increases, and people travel more during the summer season. The tourism industry is booming, and gasoline demand is improving. However, due to the high prices in the early stage, the upward trend of gasoline has moderately narrowed. Under the peak season, gasoline prices are still relatively strong.

3、 Future Market Forecast

In July, due to the impact of the consumption tax policy on mixed aromatic hydrocarbons, there was a strong atmosphere of market speculation, and the mixed xylene market took the opportunity to rise; With the fall of the U.S. Dollar Index this week, market risk appetite has been improved, crude oil has fluctuated upward, and the supply of mixed xylene market has increased. Holders are optimistic about the future market, and they are reluctant to sell. Downstream customers and some traders are willing to make inquiries, and they are willing to buy. Supported by multiple advantages, the price of mixed xylene has risen all the way, and the market atmosphere has continued to rise. The future market may continue to rise slightly. Pay attention to the market trends of crude oil and gasoline, as well as the impact of mixed xylene and downstream equipment dynamics, port inventory, and external markets on the price of mixed xylene.

Price trend of domestic Sodium metabisulfite

According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, the domestic price of Sodium metabisulfite was weak this week. The average price of industrial Sodium metabisulfite at the beginning of the week was 1883.33 yuan/ton, and the average price at the weekend was 1866.67 yuan/ton, down 0.88% in the week.

Supported by the stabilization of raw material prices, the overall price of Sodium metabisulfite in the domestic market is weak and stable this week. The domestic industrial Sodium metabisulfite market price range is 1800-2300 yuan/ton, and most prices are concentrated around 1800-1900 yuan/ton. The inventory of the enterprise is about 30%, mainly to complete old customer orders. (The above prices refer to external quotations from mainstream domestic enterprises, and some enterprises that have not been quoted are temporarily excluded from their scope. The prices are for reference only and are not related to the manufacturer’s final pricing. For more information, please contact each manufacturer for consultation.).

As of July 14, the price of domestic soda ash had risen slightly by 1.02%, and the price of sulfur had risen by 7.94% last week. The rebound of raw material price will support the market price of Sodium metabisulfite in the future.

Future Market Forecast

Analysts from the business community believe that the cost of raw materials has stopped falling and recovered, and the domestic market price of Sodium metabisulfite will stabilize as a whole in the short term.

1、 Trend analysis

According to the monitoring of nickel prices by the Business Society, nickel prices have slightly increased this week. As of July 7th, the spot nickel quotation was 172116.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.52% from the beginning of the week and a year-on-year decrease of 2.29%.

According to the weekly rise and fall chart of Business Society, nickel prices have risen by 6 in the past 12 weeks, with a slight rebound in recent times.

Nickel industry chain

LME nickel inventory

On the macro level, the US suspended interest rate hikes as scheduled in June, and although hawkish signals were released that there may still be two more rate hikes, the market seems not very satisfied with this. The probability of next month’s rate hike is not yet firmly predicted, and domestic economic stabilization policies have also arrived as expected, providing protection for the recovery. Overall, macro sentiment has rebounded.

In terms of supply: In June, the national refined nickel production totaled 20400 tons, an increase of 9.39% month on month and 31.06% year-on-year. In addition, the inflow of Russian nickel long-term orders and customs clearance conditions are not limited by whether imports are profitable, supplementing domestic supply.

In terms of demand: The overall demand for pure nickel is stable, with differentiated performance in the terminal field. The production of stainless steel reached a new high in May, and the production schedule remained basically unchanged in June; The order of ternary precursor recovered, and the price of Nickel(II) sulfate stabilized and rose; Alloy and electroplating companies maintain an attitude of buying at low prices and not buying at high prices.

In summary, the newly added production capacity of electrowinning nickel has been put into operation and increased. In June, domestic production exceeded the 20000 ton mark, and Russian nickel long-term orders have flowed into the country. At the same time, the domestic alloy and new energy industries have ushered in a peak season, showing a dual increase in supply and demand, stable supply growth, short-term demand growth expectations, and a pattern of buying at low prices and not buying at high prices in the middle and lower reaches. In the context of a double increase in supply and demand, it is expected that the short-term wide fluctuation trend of nickel prices will be the main trend.

Last Friday (July 7th), international crude oil futures saw a significant increase. The settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $73.86 per barrel, an increase of $2.06 or 2.9%. The settlement price of the Brent crude oil futures main contract was $78.47 per barrel, an increase of $1.95 or 2.6%. The expectation of tight supply due to OPEC tightening production in the oil producing country has overshadowed concerns about slowing demand due to the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike.

The decline of the US dollar provides support for crude oil

The US economic data for June was weak, and a closely watched report released by the Labor Department on Friday also showed that the number of jobs added in June was the lowest in two and a half years; The decline of US labor market data has lowered the expectation that the Federal Reserve will maintain high interest rates for a long time. The rapid decline of the US dollar has made the valuation of risky Business valuation, including crude oil denominated in US dollars, higher.

The production reduction of the OPEC and its allies (OPEC+) aggravates supply concerns

The largest oil exporting countries Saudi Arabia and Russia announced new production reduction measures last week, bringing the total production reduction of the OPEC+alliance to about 5 million barrels per day, accounting for approximately 5% of global oil demand. On July 3rd, the Saudi Ministry of Energy announced that it would extend the policy of reducing production by an additional 1 million barrels per day in July until August; In addition, on July 7th, the Russian Ministry of Energy also confirmed a reduction of 500000 barrels per day in oil exports in August.

The United States will purchase 6 million barrels of crude oil to fill its strategic oil reserves

In addition, the United States Department of Energy’s plan to replenish the strategic oil reserve has also warmed up the oil market. On July 7, the US announced that it would purchase an additional 6 million barrels of crude oil to replenish the strategic oil reserve. The procurement plan will be carried out in October and November. Previously, the United States Department of Energy had announced the purchase of 6.3 million barrels of crude oil for the strategic reserve, and the recent bidding for the replenishment reserve will make the total purchase this year exceed 12 million barrels. The data report of the Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Wednesday showed that the crude oil inventory declined rapidly, and the supply side’s positive overlap overshadowed the concern of weak demand expectations.

Future prospects

Business Society crude oil analysts believe that in the short term, the tight supply and weak demand expectations will continue to play games, and at the same time, the geopolitical risks brought by the conflict between Ukraine and Russia; As well as the potential risk of a global economic recession leading to a decline in demand due to the expectation of a Fed rate hike, many factors will exacerbate the volatility of the oil market, and the range of volatility may be wider than before.

Price trend of domestic Sodium metabisulfite

According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, the domestic Sodium metabisulfite price continued to decline in a weak way this week. The average price of industrial Sodium metabisulfite at the beginning of the week was 1966.67 yuan/ton, and the average price at the weekend was 1833.33 yuan/ton, down 4.24% in the week.

Pressed by the sharp loss of upstream raw material prices, the manufacturer again slightly lowered the ex factory price in July, driving the domestic Sodium metabisulfite market price to further decline. This week, the domestic industrial Sodium metabisulfite market price range was 1800-2300 yuan/ton, most prices were concentrated around 1800-2000 yuan/ton, and enterprises mainly completed orders from old customers. (The above prices refer to external quotations from mainstream domestic enterprises, and some enterprises that have not been quoted are temporarily excluded from their scope. The prices are for reference only and are not related to the manufacturer’s final pricing. For more information, please contact each manufacturer for consultation.).

As of July 7, the price of domestic soda ash had risen slightly, up 0.51% in the month, and the price of sulfur had risen slightly, up 2.34% in the month. Upstream raw materials had stopped falling and recovered, and the cost recovery would support the market price of Sodium metabisulfite in the future.

Future Market Forecast

Analysts from the business community believe that the cost of raw materials has stopped falling and recovered, and the domestic market price of Sodium metabisulfite is expected to stop falling and stabilize in the short term.