According to the data monitored by the business community, at the beginning of the month, the price of the first grade industrial potassium nitrate in Shanxi was 6800.00 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, the price of the first grade industrial potassium nitrate in Shanxi was 6425.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.51%. The current price rose 17.89% year on year.

potassium nitrate

In September, the domestic potassium nitrate market showed a downward trend. It can be seen from the figure above that the potassium nitrate market has declined for three consecutive months since 2022. This is mainly because the global potash fertilizer market is still sluggish and liquidity is low. The supply of domestic potassium manufacturers is normal, and the price has fallen more than once. The supply of goods in the market is still sufficient. Downstream procurement remained just in demand, the market transaction was relatively cold, and the potassium nitrate market fell in shock. According to the statistics of the business community, the domestic mainstream potassium nitrate manufacturers have recently quoted 6200-6500 yuan/ton (the quotation is for reference only), and the quotation varies according to the procurement situation.

The domestic market of imported potassium chloride fell in September. The self raised price of 62% white potassium at the port is about 3900-4200 yuan/ton. The self raised price of 60% Dahong granules at the port is about 3900-4200 yuan/ton. 62% of Russian white potassium in border trade is about 3800-4000 yuan/ton. The price of potassium chloride in Salt Lake and Zangger was adjusted at a high level, and there may be a downward adjustment plan in October.

The domestic supply of potassium chloride is sufficient, the price continues to fall, and the cost support is average. It is expected that the price of potassium nitrate will fall mainly in the short term, and the long-term market still needs to wait and see.

According to the data of the block list of business cooperatives, as of September 28, the average price of epichlorohydrin enterprises was 11266.67 yuan/ton, which was the same as that of last Friday (September 23), 4.25% lower than that of August 28, and 39.43% lower than that of last three months.

Recent (9.23-9.28) epichlorohydrin market is stable and weak. Recently, the price of raw propylene has risen slightly, and the cost has been supported to some extent. Some factories have high inventories, and the enterprises give way to profits and reduce the inventory. They are mainly active in shipping. Downstream stock preparation is gradually approaching the end. The market trading atmosphere is light, and the focus of negotiations is mainly on stability, with narrow fluctuations.

On September 27, the benchmark price of upstream propylene was 7530.60 yuan/ton, up 6.06% compared with 7100.60 yuan/ton on September 1.

The reference price of downstream epoxy resin was 20500.00 on September 27, an increase of 5.13% compared with September 1 (19500.00).

According to the epichlorohydrin analysts of the business community, at present, the cost support still exists, the supply side is abundant, the demand side is insufficient, and the market trading rhythm slows down near the holidays. It is expected that the epichlorohydrin market will operate weakly and stably in the short term, so more attention should be paid to the market news guidance.

According to the data monitored by the business community, as of September 27, the average price of PMMA for domestic general transparent premium products this week was 16100.00 yuan/ton, down 1.83% compared with the same period last week. The PMMA price is narrow and weak, and the overall market price fluctuation range is small. At present, the quotation range of mainstream manufacturers is about 16100 yuan/ton. The PMMA market price is mainly stable, the focus of negotiation is narrow and weak, and the overall market supply and demand are balanced, The operating rate is stable.

This week, the average price of PMMA for domestic general transparent premium products was 16100.00 yuan/ton. The overall market was stable, with a slight downward trend in prices. The quotation range of mainstream manufacturers remained at about 16100 yuan/ton. The merchants actively shipped goods and took orders with profits. Compared with last week, the price fell 1.83%. The PMMA price was stable, with the overall supply and demand balance at present, and the downstream just needed to purchase. At present, the focus of negotiations is weak, and the supply side is normal, The latest quotation of the enterprise: Shanghai Hongqi Plastic Technology Co., Ltd. 16600 yuan/ton.

Upstream phenol: As of September 26, the phenol market has risen slightly. The ex factory price of phenol products of Lihua Yiweiyuan Chemical Co., Ltd. has risen by 200 yuan/ton to 11100 yuan/ton. As the supply of goods is tight, people are reluctant to sell, and the price remains high in the short term.

Rubber and plastic index: On September 26, the rubber and plastic index was 705 points, up 3 points from yesterday, down 33.49% from the highest point in the cycle 1060 points (March 14, 2012), and up 33.52% from the lowest point 528 points on April 6, 2020. (Note: the cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to the present).

According to the PMMA analysts of the business community, the PMMA price is mainly stable, with a limited range of price fluctuations, and the mainstream price is about 16100 yuan/ton.

According to the monitoring of the business community, the trend of the rare earth price index has continued to rise recently, and the market of the domestic rare earth industry has improved. On September 26, the rare earth index was 648 points, up 19 points from yesterday, down 35.65% from the peak of 1007 points (2022-02-24) in the cycle, and up 139.11% from the lowest point of 271 points on September 13, 2015. (Note: the cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to the present).

It can be seen from the product price trend chart that the price trend of the domestic light rare earth market has risen. The prices of domestic metal neodymium, metal praseodymium, neodymium oxide, praseodymium oxide, praseodymium neodymium alloy and praseodymium neodymium oxide have all risen in different ways. On the 26th, the price of metal praseodymium neodymium rose by 22500 yuan/ton to 785000 yuan/ton, the price of praseodymium neodymium oxide rose by 15000 yuan/ton to 650000 yuan/ton, and the price of neodymium oxide rose by 40000 yuan/ton to 745000 yuan/ton, The price of neodymium metal rose by 15000 yuan/ton to 875000 yuan/ton, the price of praseodymium metal rose by 30000 yuan/ton to 875000 yuan/ton, and the price of praseodymium oxide rose by 20000 yuan/ton to 745000 yuan/ton. Recently, the price trend of domestic light rare earth market has risen.

The price trend of the domestic rare earth market rose. The downstream magnetic material factories continued to replenish their stocks before the National Day holiday. In addition, the rare earth industry gradually entered the peak season, and some downstream businesses started to stock up. The demand increased, and the price of rare earth market rose. Due to the impact on the production of mainstream products such as praseodymium and neodymium oxide in some epidemic areas, the supply is tight, and the market price continues to rise. Recently, the sales of downstream new energy vehicles and electric two wheeled vehicles have increased month on month, and the demand for spot purchases has risen, supporting the rise of rare earth market. Downstream demand improved, replenishment increased, traders offered actively, and the domestic light rare earth market rose.

According to statistics, the demand for new energy vehicles has improved. According to the data released by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, the production and sales of automobiles in China will reach 2.395 million and 2.383 million respectively in August 2022, with year-on-year growth of 38.3% and 32.1%, both higher than last month. Among them, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in August were 691000 and 666000, respectively, with a year-on-year growth of 1.2 times and 1 time, and the monthly production and sales reached a new record high. The production and sales of automobiles rose significantly, and the demand in the new energy field was still supported. The price of light rare earth in the domestic market was favorable, and the price of rare earth rose.

The heavy rare earth market trend rose. On the 26th, the price of dysprosium oxide was 2.275 million yuan/ton, the price of dysprosium ferroalloy was 2.26 million yuan/ton, and the price of dysprosium metal was 2.975 million yuan/ton. The heavy rare earth price trend rose. The production enterprises gradually started construction, and the rare earth market atmosphere improved. In addition, the export of Myanmar was limited. The global supply of rare earth was relatively concentrated. Myanmar is one of the production areas next to China and the United States. Myanmar has a great influence on the domestic heavy rare earth market products, and the price of heavy rare earth on the market has risen.

In addition, the first batch of rare earth total amount control indicators in 2022 met expectations, and the industry pattern continued to optimize. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the Ministry of Natural Resources issued the total control index for the second batch of rare earth mining, smelting and separation in 2022. In 2022, the total control indicators of the second batch of rare earth mining, smelting and separation will be 109200 tons and 104800 tons respectively. The total control indicators of rare earth mining, smelting and separation in the first two batches in 2022 are 210000 tons and 202000 tons respectively, up sharply year on year. However, the demand gap for rare earth still exists, and the situation of oversupply has not improved.

The new energy vehicles, wind power and variable frequency air conditioning in the downstream of rare earths have achieved sustainable development. Due to repeated epidemics in some regions, downstream procurement is limited. However, the orders of magnetic material enterprises have increased recently, and some enterprises have gradually started replenishment. In addition, with the start of rare earth peak season, business community analyst Chen Ling expects the rare earth market to rise.

Domestic price trend of paraxylene:

It can be seen from the trend chart of paraxylene that the price trend of this week is temporarily stable. As of the weekend, the domestic ex factory price of paraxylene was 9000 yuan/ton, unchanged from the early price of 9000 yuan/ton, up 26.76% year on year.

Recently, the domestic supply of paraxylene is normal, the domestic PX operation rate is about 70%, the 600000 ton unit of Sinochem Hongrun Petrochemical is operating stably, the unit of Yangzi Petrochemical is operating stably, the unit of Pengzhou Petrochemical is operating stably, the PX unit of Yangzi Petrochemical is operating normally, the unit of Jinling Petrochemical is operating stably, the unit of Qingdao Lidong is operating at full load, the unit of Qilu Petrochemical is operating stably, and the unit of Urumqi Petrochemical is operating at about 50%, The domestic supply of paraxylene is relatively normal. Recently, the supply of overseas devices is relatively normal. The crude oil price has declined slightly this week, and the domestic price of paraxylene is temporarily stable. This week, the price of PX external market fell slightly. As of the 22nd, the closing price in Asia was 1054-1056 US dollars/ton FOB South Korea and 1072-1074 US dollars/ton CFR China. Recently, the operating rate of PX devices in Asia has not changed much. The closing price of PX external market declined slightly, and the price of domestic paraxylene market has temporarily stabilized.

The crude oil price fell slightly this week. As of the 22nd of this week, the settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States had reached 83.49 dollars/barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures had reached 90.46 dollars/barrel. The boots of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate increase landed at 75 basis points. In addition, the repeated outbreaks depressed the demand for crude oil, and the trend of international oil prices declined. As of the week ended September 16, US crude oil inventory increased by 1.1 million barrels to 4307.7 million barrels, and analysts expected an increase of 2.2 million barrels. According to EIA report, the inventory of Cushing crude oil in Oklahoma, the delivery place of NYMEX crude oil futures, increased by 343000 barrels, and the international oil price closed down slightly, which affected the price trend of the domestic paraxylene market temporarily.

The downstream PTA market price fell slightly this week, and the average PTA market price was 6550-6650 yuan/ton as of the 23rd. The PTA maintenance device was restarted, and the industry started to rise to about 73.5%. In addition, the terminal weaving has been gradually relieved with the high-temperature weather recently, and the starting load has continued to rise. The comprehensive starting rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms is more than 71%. However, the willingness of weaving to stock up raw materials is difficult to reach the level of previous years even in the “Golden Nine Silver Ten” stock level. Therefore, the demand side of polyester remained flat, which led to the increased pressure on polyester factories to go to the warehouse, and it was difficult to effectively improve the commencement. On the whole, the downstream PTA price fell slightly, and the domestic paraxylene market price trend was temporarily stable.

Chen Ling, a PX analyst of the business community, believes that the current crude oil price is still supported, and the downstream construction of the terminal has risen slightly. Although the overall demand is expected to be good, the actual demand of the downstream has not risen much. It is expected that the market price of paraxylene will be stable in the later period, and there is no lack of a small upward trend.

1、 Trend analysis

According to the nickel price monitoring of the business community, the nickel price rose first and then fell this week. As of September 16, the spot nickel price was 191183.33 yuan/ton, up 0.99% from 189300 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, up 28.69% year on year. The roller coaster market of nickel price this week was mainly because investors worried about short-term supply due to the fire in the Russian nickel factory. Later, the news was clarified, which had limited impact on nickel supply, and the nickel price fell back.

Nickel weekly fluctuation chart

According to the weekly ups and downs chart of the business community, the nickel price has risen by 3% and fallen by 9% in the past 12 weeks. Recently, the nickel price has fluctuated widely.

Nickel industry chain

LME Nickel Inventory

On the macro level, the US CPI in August exceeded expectations. The US CPI in August rose 8.3% year on year, higher than the market expectation of 8.1%; On a month on month basis, it rose 0.1%, and the market is expected to decline 0.1%. The core CPI excluding food and energy rose 6.3% year on year and 0.6% month on month, both higher than market expectations. The discussion about the Fed’s interest rate increase next week was upgraded from “50 or 75 basis points” to “75 or 100 basis points”. For this reason, investors worry that further substantial interest rate hikes may inhibit economic growth and metal demand.

The supply of nickel ore is still tight compared with previous years, while the price of ferronickel has dropped sharply. The reduction of downstream stainless steel production has resulted in weak demand and negative profits. Therefore, the output and operating rate of ferronickel have been declining. Nickel consumption is mainly concentrated in stainless steel and power batteries. Stainless steel production is not affected by the epidemic, but it has a greater impact on the consumer side. In addition, the real estate industry has been in a downward cycle, which also affects the demand expectation of stainless steel. With the implementation of new policies, the growth rate of new energy vehicle production is likely to slow down. In August, China’s production of ternary precursors was 80000 tons, an increase of 16% month on month and 49% year on year. It is expected that the external demand will improve in September, and the output may increase.

Although the long-term fundamentals of nickel price are not good, the current supply and demand pressure has eased compared with the previous, and the macro view is still negative. The nickel price is expected to maintain a wide range of shocks in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of bulk commodity data, the price of Yunnan Guizhou yellow phosphorus rose this week. The average price of yellow phosphorus last Friday was 34125 yuan/ton, and this Friday was 36250 yuan/ton. The price will rise within seven days, by 6.23%.

2、 Market analysis

The yellow phosphorus market price rose this week, continuing the rise of the Mid Autumn Festival. At present, the market turnover is good, the National Day holiday is approaching, the downstream stock is more active, the spot is a little tight, and the yellow phosphorus enterprises are moving smoothly. Up to now, the mainstream quotation of Yunnan yellow phosphorus is about 37000 yuan/ton; The mainstream quotation of Sichuan yellow phosphorus is about 37000 yuan/ton; The mainstream quotation of Guizhou yellow phosphorus is about 36000 yuan/ton.

In terms of phosphate rock, the overall market situation of domestic medium and high-end grade phosphate rock continued to operate stably this week. As of September 15, the reference price of phosphate rock was 1064.00. The supply of phosphate rock in the yard is still tight, and the supply side continues to provide some support to the market. At present, the trading atmosphere in the phosphate rock yard is mild, and the downstream is mainly purchased on demand.

In terms of coke, the coke market is temporarily stable this week, and the average price of quasi primary coke in Shanxi is 2500 yuan/ton. In terms of coking enterprises, there is a slight improvement in the current commencement. The overall shipment of coke enterprises is good, and the overall coke inventory in the plant is low. In terms of downstream steel plants, the recent trend of the finished product market is volatile, the terminal demand is not expected to improve temporarily, and the profits of steel plants are low. At present, coke procurement is mainly based on demand, and most steel plants control coke procurement. At present, the inventory in the plant is at a medium level. In the future, the business community believes that the coke market still has some support, and the downstream demand has little change. It is expected that the coke market will maintain a temporary stable operation in the short term. In the future market, the focus will be on the coke inventory in each link, the profits of coke steel enterprises, the price trend of coking coal and the sales of downstream finished products.

Phosphoric acid, phosphoric acid, the price of phosphoric acid increased this week. The average price of phosphoric acid was 9358.33 yuan/ton last Friday and 10180 yuan/ton this Friday. The price will rise within the week by 8.78%.. The price of raw material yellow phosphorus has risen, the cost support has been strengthened, the overall focus of the phosphoric acid market has moved up, and the enterprise offers have been adjusted to different extents. It is expected that the phosphoric acid market will rise steadily in the short term.

3、 Future market forecast

Yellow phosphorus analysts from the Chemical Branch of Business Cooperative believe that yellow phosphorus prices continue to rise this week. On the whole, the price of upstream phosphate rock was adjusted at a high level, and the price of downstream phosphoric acid market rose significantly. As the National Day holiday approaches, downstream enterprises are actively preparing goods. The yellow phosphorus market is expected to rise steadily in the short term.

In September, the BDO market broke through the bottleneck period and rose rapidly. According to the price monitoring of the business cooperative, the average price of domestic BDO manufacturers was 13900 yuan/ton as of September 16, up 36.11 percent from the beginning of the month

Since 2022, the contradiction between supply and demand in BDO market has been prominent. The supply is too much while the downstream demand is weak. The market price has continued to decline. Except for a 5.38% increase in February, the rest of the seven months have shown a downward trend, with the largest decline of 35.45% in July. As of the first ten days of August, the BDO market fell by more than 67%, and then entered a downturn consolidation period.

In September, the shutdown maintenance and load reduction of BDO’s main factories increased, the overall supply of goods gradually decreased, and the supply side support continued to strengthen, boosting market confidence. The production enterprises have a strong desire to be reluctant to sell the spot goods, and the auction transaction price keeps rising. Some production enterprises will not ship goods temporarily. At present, among the major manufacturers of BDO, only Xinjiang Lanshantunhe has published the monthly settlement price and the listing price of the New Moon. Some of the remaining manufacturers have negotiated the price under the contract, and the rest are mainly a small number of goods. The traders quickly “seized the opportunity” and the atmosphere of speculation was strong, which was the main reason for this round of rise.

In addition, the support on the cost side was stronger, and the price of maleic anhydride was also increased due to supply tightening and cost support turning down. As of September 16, the average market price of maleic anhydride in Shandong was 8660 yuan/ton, up 11.31% from the beginning of the month. Formaldehyde continued to rise, boosted by raw material methanol. In order to make profits, the formaldehyde manufacturer intentionally raised its quotation, which was 5.32% higher than the beginning of the month. Under the pressure of cost, the downstream PTMEG’s intention of price fixing is slightly enhanced. The industry started at a low level of 3.5%, but with the restart of Xiaoxing device, the BDO contract purchase volume increased.

In the future, according to the 730 moving average rule of the business community, since September 4, 2022, the 30 day moving average will be crossed on the 7th to start the upward trend. At present, the two moving averages will be upward at the same time. On September 11, 2022, it is estimated that the probability of the change of the operating situation (i.e., the 7-day moving average goes below the 30-day moving average) in the next 7 days is 39.29%. BDO analysts from the business agency believe that the short-term BDO price still has room to rise due to the tight supply, market speculation and upstream and downstream improvement.

441 # silicon price trend

This week, the price of silicon metal was weak, and the upstream and downstream markets were locked in a stalemate. A few manufacturers lowered their quotations at the end of the week to promote the transaction. As of September 16, the average price of 441 # metal silicon in the domestic market was 20650 yuan/ton, up 0.29 percent from the beginning of the month, according to the price monitoring of the business community

On the 16th, the price of 441 # silicon in various regions was as follows:

The price range of # 441 silicon metal in Huangpu Port area is 20600-20700 yuan/ton, with an average price of 20650 yuan/ton; The price range of # 441 silicon metal in Tianjin Port is 20600-20700 yuan/ton, with an average price of 20650 yuan/ton; The price range of # 441 silicon metal in Kunming is 20300-20500 yuan/ton, with an average of 20400 yuan/ton; The price range of # 441 silicon metal in Sichuan is 20100-20300 yuan/ton, with an average of 20200 yuan/ton; The price range of # 441 silicon metal in Shanghai is 21100-21400 yuan/ton, with an average price of 21250 yuan/ton.

Factors Affecting the Price Fluctuation of Silicon Metal

Yunnan’s power rationing policy has not been implemented yet. Although metal silicon production is not involved, market news disturbance has been continuing; After the end of power rationing in Sichuan, the production of silicon metal in some regions returned to normal. However, due to epidemic control and other reasons, logistics and transportation were blocked, goods were difficult to enter and exit, and local manufacturers had high inventories; The control of epidemic situation in Xinjiang was gradually liberalized, and the supply increased slightly.

The price of aluminum alloy ADC12 rose by 100 yuan/ton, and the mainstream quotation was 18800 yuan/ton; The mainstream quotation of silicone DMC was 19180 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan/ton; The mainstream price of polysilicon is 296666.66 yuan/ton. The downstream aluminum alloy and organic silicon markets are still weak, and metal silicon is mainly purchased on demand. The polysilicon market remains prosperous. At present, three silicon material enterprises have resumed work, and the other two will resume work in succession next month. It is expected that stable supply will be restored in the near future.

Future market forecast

Yunnan Province has not yet settled down, and the market is expected to support the reduction of the supply side. However, the downstream demand for organic silicon and aluminum alloy is weak, and traders are cautious in purchasing, limiting the upward price of metal silicon. Analysts from the business community believe that before the introduction of the power restriction policy in Yunnan, the price of metal silicon remained weak.

According to the data monitoring of the business community, the acrylonitrile market rose slightly this week (9.9-9.16). As of September 16, the spot market price of acrylonitrile in China was 9810 yuan/ton, up 2.72% from 9550 yuan/ton last Friday. This week, the supply side operation rate of domestic acrylonitrile industry was basically stable, with an overall operation rate of 60% to 70%. Downstream goods were slightly stocked before the festival, and the overall offer of merchants rose. As of September 16, the mainstream offer of acrylonitrile apron market in East China was between 9700 and 9950 yuan/ton.

The price of raw propylene rose slightly this week (9.9-9.16), which supported the cost. According to the monitoring of the business community, as of September 16, the domestic propylene price was 7434 yuan/ton, up 1.56% from 7320 yuan/ton last Friday.

The downstream ABS operating rate continued to increase, driven by export inquiries. In September, the ABS operating rate rose to nearly 90%; The operating rate of domestic acrylic fiber is low, around 40%; The acrylonitrile butadiene rubber and acrylamide started stably, and the acrylonitrile demand surface was more supportive than that in the early stage.

Future forecast: acrylonitrile analysts from the business community believe that the cost and demand of acrylonitrile are supported in the short term, and it is expected that the acrylonitrile market will be consolidated at a high level in the short term.