price trend
According to the bulk ranking data of Shengyi Society, the domestic PC market fell at a low level in May, and the spot prices of most brands were lowered. As of May 31st, the mixed benchmark price of Business Society PC is around 14610 yuan/ton, with a price increase or decrease of 5.64% compared to early May.
cause analysis
On the supply side: In May, the load of domestic PC aggregation enterprises has been reduced. Due to the maintenance of enterprises such as Luxi Chemical and Shanghai Mitsubishi in the middle of the month, the supply of PC has been tightened in some areas. At the end of the month, the average operating level of the industry decreased by about 10% to 73% compared to the beginning of the month, and the weekly average production remained stable at below 60000 tons. Both Luxi Chemical and Wanhua Chemical have the potential to increase their load in the future, and PC inventory remains high for a long time, with supply at a high level and abundant on-site supply. Manufacturers and midstream inventory are high, and shipping pressure still exists. The market supply side has limited support for improving PC prices.
In terms of raw materials, it can be seen from the above chart that the price of bisphenol A fell from a high level in May. After the May Day holiday, downstream enterprises have inventory waiting to be digested, and on-site trading is sluggish. At the same time, the industry load increased in the middle of the month, and the on-site supply of goods increased. In terms of raw materials, both acetone and phenol have weakened, which has dragged down spot prices and caused fluctuations in the upstream crude oil market. Overall, bisphenol A has poor support for PC costs due to the supply-demand imbalance and cost impact.
In terms of demand, PC consumption in May continued the pattern of rigid demand, and new orders in the market remained basically at the same level as the same period in previous years. The downstream factories are operating normally and stocking up is proceeding as planned. Due to the long-term weak market dynamics in the industry, high social inventory, and abundant on-site supply, the contradiction between supply and demand tends to lead to destocking. New orders for goods preparation before the Dragon Boat Festival did not see significant volume, and the trading performance continued the pattern of contract delivery. Merchants tend to have a wait-and-see attitude, buyers are resistant to high priced goods, and the flow of goods in the market is slow. Overall, the demand side has weak support for PC spot prices.
Future forecast
The domestic PC market fell at a low level in May. The upstream bisphenol A market has turned from high to low, providing poor support for PC costs. The load of domestic PC aggregation plants has decreased, but the pattern of strong supply remains unchanged. At the end of the month, there was a rebound in supply in some areas, while downstream demand followed the logic of weak and rigid demand. Business operators remained cautious about the future market. At the same time, the industry’s inventory is high, and the seller camp is willing to sell and sell at a discount. It is expected that the PC market will remain weak and consolidate in early June. It is recommended to closely monitor the industry’s inventory digestion situation.