1、 Price trend

According to the data in the business club’s bulk list, the domestic isomeric xylene market gradually stabilized this week, and as of Friday, it was flat compared with last Friday.

2、 Analysis and comment

1. Product: affected by the stable rebound of international crude oil price and the rising price of isomeric xylene in Korean market, and the impact of the gradual improvement of market demand, the price of isomeric xylene in China has gradually stabilized. At present, the mainstream price in East China is about 5400 yuan / ton.

2、 Industrial chain:

Upstream, in terms of crude oil, the international oil price continued to rebound this week. As of Friday, Brent rose 5.71%, Brent futures rose 4.42%, WTI futures rose 2.98%, and Dubai futures rose 3.01%.

Downstream, in PX market, the price of domestic market is about 6300 yuan / ton this week, and the latest price of external market is about 732 US dollars / ton FOB South Korea and 750 US dollars / ton CFR China. It is expected that PX market price will maintain a stable trend next week. In terms of PTA market, the spot market price of PTA in China is about 4450 yuan / ton, and the external market price is about 571 US dollars / ton CFR China. It is expected that PTA market will remain stable in the short term. In the ox market, Sinopec’s price of o-benzene was flat at 5800 yuan / ton, and the external price of o-benzene was about 745 US dollars / ton fob in South Korea, which is expected to maintain a stable trend in the future.

3、 Future forecast

Xylene analysts from the chemical branch of business society think: next week, we will continue to focus on the trend of crude oil and the progress of downstream enterprises’ resumption. On the whole, it is expected that the price of isomeric xylene in the international crude oil market and South Korea market will be subject to shock correction, but under the expectation that the domestic enterprises will gradually enter the resumption period and the market demand will gradually improve, the price of isomeric xylene in the domestic market will be subject to slight shock next week.

1、 Price trend:

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average price of caustic soda in Shandong market at the beginning of the week was 600 yuan / ton, while the average price in Shandong market at the end of the week was 602.5 yuan / ton, up 0.42. The caustic soda commodity index on February 20 was 86.69, unchanged from yesterday, down 58.09% from 206.87 (2017-11-14), the highest point in the cycle, and up 18.32% from 73.27, the lowest point on March 29, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

Product: the overall consolidation trend of caustic soda price this week is mainly. The price of 32% ion-exchange membrane caustic soda market in Shandong Province is stable, with a quotation of about 580-650 yuan / ton. The caustic soda enterprises have devices to stop, the market supply is reduced, and the trading atmosphere is flat. It is expected that the trend of narrow consolidation will run in the short term. The caustic soda market in Jiangsu Province is stable for the time being, with the main stream of 32% of the caustic soda market of 630-740 yuan / ton. The market is relatively stable with low load operation and weak trading. The start-up of caustic soda enterprises is still in the process of load reduction production, and the downstream demand side is general. The owners are more cautious and wait-and-see attitude.

Industrial chain: due to the impact of the epidemic situation in the downstream, the enterprises are not enough to start work, and the demand for caustic soda is limited. Logistics has not been fully recovered, and enterprises have difficulties in shipping. The overall demand for caustic soda is not much.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the sixth week of 2020 (2.10-2.14), there are 1 rising commodity, 1 falling commodity, and 3 rising and falling commodities. The main commodities rising were caustic soda (2.16%); the main commodities falling were PVC (- 1.10%). This week’s average was 0.21%.

According to analysts of business cooperatives, transportation has not yet recovered, and the delivery pressure of caustic soda enterprises is still on. At present, flexible delivery is the main mode of delivery, construction in other regions has not been significantly improved, and the overall operation of the domestic market is flat. It is expected that the consolidation and operation of domestic caustic soda market will be dominated.

1、 Price trend

This week, the lead market (2.10-2.14) continued to rise. The average price in the domestic market was 14012.50 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 14225 yuan / ton at the end of the week, with a weekly increase of 1.52%.

On February 16, the lead commodity index was 86.57, unchanged from yesterday, down 35.40% from 134.01 (2016-11-29), the highest point in the cycle, and up 16.00% from 74.63, the lowest point on March 19, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now).

2、 Market trend analysis

Domestic market: this week, Lunzhou lead rose by 3.55%, while Shanghai lead fluctuated broadly between 13800-14400, with a weekly cumulative increase of more than 1.5%. The spot market continues to rise this week driven by futures prices. Affected by transportation and delayed resumption of work, there are only a limited number of manufacturers currently operating. The overall supply of goods in the spot market is relatively tight, with fewer quotations from traders. The main market supply is Shanghai Jinsha lead, Guangdong Nanhua lead, Hunan Jingui and a few other brands, with fewer transactions. The return to work of renewable lead enterprises was delayed this week. Except for the regular production of some large enterprises in the market, other enterprises are all off work.

3、 Future prospects

After the completion of next week’s delivery, because the overall supply is still increasing and the consumption is afraid that under the premise that the logistics cannot be fully opened, even if the resumption of work is gradually increasing everywhere, the activity of the spot will not be substantially improved, and the futures market performance of the basic metals will continue to fluctuate in the range, and under the signal that the epidemic has not obtained the inflection point, it is difficult for long-term trading to take a unilateral lead Restricted by logistics factors and slightly supported by prices, the company will focus on logistics and resumption of work next week. It is expected to fluctuate between 14000-14500 yuan / ton this week.

1、 Price trend

Since the beginning of January 2020, the price trend of n-propanol has been relatively stable, with a slight increase since the beginning of the year. According to the data of business agency, at the beginning of the year, the average price of n-propanol was 10600 yuan / ton, and the current average price of n-propanol was 10800 yuan / ton, an increase of 1.89%. At present, the domestic ex factory price is 10500-10800 yuan / ton in barrels (Zibo region), the market price of imported n-propanol is 10800-11600 yuan / ton in barrels (Taiwan), the low-end of bulk n-propanol, and the price difference is about 1000-1100 yuan / ton.

2、 Market analysis

Product: at present, the market of n-propanol is affected by the current environment, logistics and other factors. The market operating rate is low, the transportation aspect fails to fully recover, the market is not available, and the transaction atmosphere is cold. The current inventory of n-propanol in Zibo, Shandong Province is low, and some enterprises are in short supply. At present, the ex factory quotation of n-propanol in fengcang Chemical Co., Ltd. in Shandong Province is 10500 yuan / ton in barrels (Shan East Zibo), it is difficult to transport n-propanol to the whole country due to the logistics restrictions in Nanjing, Jiangsu Province, so it can only be sold in the surrounding areas.

Industry chain: the domestic market of upstream product propylene continued to be weak this week, the terminal demand recovered slowly, the operating rate of propylene and downstream units continued to decline, a small amount of downstream demand chose low procurement, and the overall market trading atmosphere was weak. As of February 13, the market price of propylene in Shandong has increased or decreased. During the Spring Festival, the international crude oil market continued to decline sharply, and the domestic propylene price also fell for many times. Since February, the price of propylene in Shandong Province has been declining all the way. On November 11, the price of some enterprises recovered slightly and then declined. Today, the price has fluctuated. At present, the market turnover is about 5750-6200 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is 5900-6000 yuan / ton. There are many units in the upstream and downstream industries that have been shut down for maintenance, and the operating rate is still low; however, affected by the epidemic situation, some refineries ship at low price under the inventory pressure, and the market transaction is rare, the market is cold, and the wait-and-see is the main thing. It is expected that the market price of propylene will start to fluctuate in recent days.

Industry: n-propanol industry is in the downstream of chemical industry, mainly used as solvent, a small amount of which is also used to synthesize n-Propyl Acetate. N-propanol is also used as bactericide, pesticide and pharmaceutical raw materials, perfume raw materials, erythromycin, bromopropane, nipagin propyl ester, paint, ink, n-Propyl Acetate, etc. of fuel oil, with a wide range of uses. The price of n-propanol is not easy to monitor, and the dealers still have reservations about the price, which may lead to differences in the specific negotiations, and there are differences in each region.

3、 Future forecast

According to the analysts of zhengpropanol of the business agency: due to the actual effect of the recovery of logistics and transportation in many places, it is expected that the market situation of zhengpropanol will not change much next week. With the improvement of logistics and the overall environment, the market trading atmosphere will also pick up. How to continue the market trend still needs to wait and see the change of raw material price and the delivery of zhengpropanol.