On September 29, the fluorite commodity index was 100.58, unchanged from yesterday, down 21.11% from the peak of 127.49 points in the cycle (2019-01-03), and up 104.39% from the low of 49.21 points on December 18, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date)

According to statistics, domestic fluorite prices fluctuated at a low level, with an average price of 2866.67 yuan/ton as of 29 days. Recently, domestic fluorite plants started to operate normally, mines and flotation plants started to operate normally, fluorite supply was sufficient, and hydrofluoric acid prices in the downstream maintained a low level in the near future. For fluorite market, purchasing on demand, fluorite went in the field. The goods are in poor condition and the fluorite market price is stable for the time being. Recent downstream installation start-up situation is general, fluorite spot supply is sufficient, terminal downstream demand is not improving, resulting in weak market prices.  As of the 29th, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Inner Mongolia is 2600-2800 yuan/ton, the mainstream of 97 fluorite wet powder negotiations in Fujian is 2600-2900 yuan/ton, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Henan is 2600-2900 yuan/ton, and the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Jiangxi is 2600-3000 yuan/ton. The price trend of fluorite remains low.

The market price of hydrofluoric acid in the downstream of fluorite maintained a low trend. The domestic market price of hydrofluoric acid was 10050 yuan/ton as of the 29th day. The low market price of hydrofluoric acid has a negative impact on the upstream fluorite market. However, the recent start-up of hydrofluoric acid plant is general, the demand for fluorite has weakened and the price of fluorite has declined. Recent downstream refrigerant market trading market is general, domestic refrigerant R22 market shocks down, from the market supply point of view, refrigerant R22 market continues to be weak, manufacturers reduce the start-up load, market supply capacity has decreased, inventory pressure has been buffered. On the demand side, downstream air-conditioning manufacturers’overhaul showed no increase in demand, and the price of domestic large enterprises fell to 1250-14000 yuan/ton. The domestic market price of R134a is declining. At present, the market of R134a has entered the off-season. The downstream demand is relatively weak. The start-up rate of many R134a manufacturers remains low. However, on-site transaction prices continue to decline, merchants purchase on demand, the end of the peak season, downstream terminal demand only declined but not increased, and the price affected by the fluorite market is at a low level.

Generally speaking, the market of downstream refrigerant industry is declining, and the supply of fluorite market is abundant, and the demand of downstream refrigerant industry is not good. Chen Ling, an analyst of business associations, believes that the price of fluorite market may maintain a low trend.

Price Trend

According to the data of the business association’s list, pure benzene showed a downward trend this week. Monday’s price was 582-5900 yuan/ton, and Friday’s price was 5600-5900 yuan/ton. Compared with last Friday’s, this week’s pure benzene fell by 1.19%.

II. Analytical Review

1. Products: Sinopec’s listed price this week is firm, at 5900 yuan per ton. Last week, the Saudi Arabian incident led to a surge in crude oil and pure benzene, benefiting the domestic market and pure benzene.  The impact of this week’s events has subsided. Although the inventory of Zhouzhuangdong Port declined slightly, some factories were parked near the lower reaches of the Eleventh century, and environmental protection requirements caused certain restrictions on transportation. The demand for pure benzene was reduced, and the price of hydrobenzene in Shandong Province began to decline.

2. Crude oil: Last week, international oil prices rose by more than 4% due to the Saudi Arabian incident. This week, the impact subsided, and international oil prices shook downward. WTI fell by 2.82% and Brent by 3.12% compared with last Friday.

3. Related industries: Downstream styrene showed a downward trend of 0.95% this week; downstream aniline rose 3.14% this week, benefiting pure benzene.

4. External market: This week, due to the negative impact of crude oil prices, the external market shocks downward, and the support surface for domestic pure benzene decreases.

3. Future Market Forecast

1. Crude oil: next week, international oil prices will return to shock range consolidation.

2. Domestic market: Likon: The recent Blue Sky Defense War has a strong influence, transportation constraints hinder the good market of pure benzene. Advantages: Port stocks in East China are declining and imports of pure benzene are on the low side.

After the festival, downstream or releasing demand, and downstream styrene futures listed, still need to focus on. Considering comprehensively, pure benzene or rigid operation is expected to dominate in the near future.

Price Trend

This week (9.16-9.20) the domestic butadiene market rose sharply.  Business Association monitoring showed that the domestic butadiene market price was 10401 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, and 11 490 yuan/ton at the weekend. The domestic butadiene price rose by 10.47% in the week, rising by 16.05% annually and falling by 7.20% year on year.

II. Analysis of Influencing Factors

Products: This week (9.16-9.20), the domestic butadiene manufacturers’prices have risen sharply. Sinopec’s East China price has increased by 1200 yuan/ton to 1180 yuan/ton; Fushun Petrochemical’s transaction price has risen to 11900 yuan/ton. During the week, due to the equipment failure of Northeast manufacturers, the export volume of goods was shrinking. In addition, the peripheral news area boosted the short-term surge of crude oil and commodities at the beginning of the week, and the supply side and news side boosted the mentality of the merchants. Northern spot prices have been greatly increased several times, while the spot resources in East China are scarce, and the range of the market has been rising mainly. Short-term prices soared sharply, the downstream part of the surge mood is obvious, further driving up the market. Although the downstream rubber market has not increased significantly, butadiene spot market is short of supply, low-price supply is difficult to find, some just need passive high-price replenishment.

Enterprises: Sinopec East China Butadiene increased its supply price by 1200 yuan/ton to 1180 yuan/ton in a week; Liaotong Chemical Company on Monday (9.16) exported 104 tons of raw materials, the base price increased by 400 yuan/ton to 103100 yuan/ton, and the transaction price increased by 11110 yuan/ton; Fushun Petrochemical Company sold 480 tons of butadiene in a week, and the transaction price increased to 1190 yuan./ The Shenhua Ning coal 64,000 tons/year butadiene plant is in normal operation, the export price is 11,420 yuan/ton, the ring ratio is 1,750 yuan/ton; the low-load operation of the Jiutai butadiene oxidative dehydrogenation unit in Inner Mongolia, the listing price is 12,000 yuan/ton, the ring ratio is 1,800 yuan/ton, and it is discussed separately.

Industry chain: Downstream synthetic rubber, styrene-butadiene rubber, this week (9.16-9.20), domestic styrene-butadiene rubber factory prices rose 200 yuan/ton, dry rubber 1502 billed price 10800-10900 yuan/ton, 200 yuan/ton higher than last period; styrene-butadiene rubber 1712 billed price 9600-9950 yuan/ton, 200 yuan/ton higher than last period. This week, the domestic butadiene-styrene plant started with a load of 6.1%: Tianjin Lugang, Hangzhou Yibang and Fuxiang chemical butadiene-styrene rubber plant continued to shut down; Jilin chemical butadiene-styrene plant operated on two lines, Zhejiang vitamin-styrene plant operated on one line, Shenhua chemical resumed on two lines, Pristone butadiene-styrene plant operated at 40% of the low load, Lanzhou Petrochemical Company operated on two lines. The second line of butadiene-styrene plant operated, the third line of Fushun Petrochemical Company operated, and the butadiene-styrene plant of Qilu Petrochemical Company operated normally.

Cis-butadiene rubber: This week (9.16-9.20), the domestic mainstream sales company Gaoshun cis-butadiene rubber factory prices have risen; by the end of the draft, the domestic mainstream factory price of Gaoshun cis-butadiene rubber rose to 11 400-11 600 yuan/ton range, an increase of 400 yuan/ton. This week, the start-up rate of domestic high cis-butadiene rubber plant was maintained near 44%. Dushanzi and Lande Shuntine plant are scheduled to restart. The biochemical cis-butadiene plant is restarting one after another. Qixiang and Hop Shuntine plant continue to stop, so the start-up rate of high cis-butadiene is still at a relatively low level in the cycle.

3. Future Market Forecast

On the positive side, the spot resources in East China are relatively tight; the downstream part just needs to catch up with the rising sentiment; domestic suppliers have no inventory pressure for the time being. On the bearish side, the downstream industry has limited follow-up; the external market has not been significantly upward for the time being; downstream profits are under pressure. Supported by the supply side, the butadiene market is basically in a good direction. In addition, the market of butadiene soars sharply under the influence of some man-made operational factors in this cycle. Short-term downstream synthetic rubber with limited strength, with the rapid rise of butadiene market, business mentality gradually cautious, with the downstream chasing atmosphere cooling, high-price transactions in the market is difficult to sustain the current situation, but short-term domestic manufacturer inventory has maintained a low level, supply facing the market there is still some support. Under the combined influence, business community butadiene analysts expect the butadiene market to remain relatively strong next week, but advise cautious attention to the trading situation.

Price Trend

According to the data of business associations, the domestic xylene market has been in good shape this week, with a weekly increase of about 2.8% due to the attack on Saudi oil fields over the weekend, the sharp rise in short-term oil prices and the low level of port inventory.

II. Analytical Review

1. Products: Influenced by the rise of crude oil upstream and the low level of port inventory, the xylene market has a good trend this week. At present, the mainstream price in East China is around 6500-6550 yuan/ton. According to the feedback from traders, the trading volume fell slightly from last week, and the port inventory remained low, at around 30,000 tons.

2. Industrial chain:

Upstream, crude oil prices rose sharply this week, with spot Brent up 5.57%, Brent futures up 6.81%, WTI futures up 6.19%, Dubai futures up 8.36%.

Downstream, PX market, domestic PX price trend is stable, short-term PX market prices are expected to maintain a stable trend. PTA market, this week’s price trend is stable, CFR China is about 660 U.S. dollars / ton, PTA plant started to increase again, supply pressure, PTA is expected to maintain a stable short-term fluctuation trend. OX market, affected by the rise in mixed xylene, began to rise this week, external price volatility, downstream phthalic anhydride, plasticizer Market warming, is expected to continue to rise in the short term.

3. Future Market Forecast

Xylene analysts from Business, Social and Chemical Branch believe that next week we will continue to focus on the trend of the Middle East situation, the progress of tariff imposition in Sino-US trade negotiations, and the European and American economies are worried about the expected fluctuation of demand for crude oil in the recession prospects. Taken together, it is expected that the toluene market will adjust its trend with minor shocks next week.

1. Name of commodity: standard aluminium ingot (99.70)

2. Latest price (2019.9.24): 14326.67 yuan/ton

3. Main points of analysis:

(1) Ring-to-Ring Decline in Domestic Production

According to data released by the International Aluminum Industry Association (IAI) on Friday (September 20), global raw aluminium production increased to 5.407 million tons in August and 5.444 million tons revised in July. Among them, China’s raw aluminium production fell to 3.05 million tons in August and revised to 3.06 million tons in July.

In addition, according to the National Bureau of Statistics on September 16, the output of raw aluminium (electrolytic aluminium) in August was 2.970 million tons, down 0.3% from the same period last year; the output of raw aluminium in January-August was 23.47 million tons, up 1.4% from the same period last year.

It is reported that production reduction factors in August include: successive production reduction incidents in Weiqiao, Xinfa, Aba Aluminum Plant in Shandong Province, partial closure of Zhongwang Aluminum Industry and replacement of Jinning Aluminum and Magnesium Production Capacity; new capacity-increasing enterprises include Yunnan Aluminum Haixin, Guizhou Denggao, China Aluminum Huarun, Mengtai Aluminum Industry, Shaanxi Meixin, etc., and overall, production reduction is greater than production increase. 。

At present, domestic monthly output of about 3 million tons is at a low level.

(2) Previous news factors triggered the rise basically fell in place, and the current trading is stable.

4. Future market forecast: At present, supply and demand are relatively stable. It is expected that the price of aluminium ingot will keep oscillating and running smoothly in the near future. Later, it will pay attention to the actual trading situation of the market.

Price Trend

According to the data from the business associations’list, the domestic dry-process aluminium fluoride market prices remained stable this week, with an average market price of 10333 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 10166 yuan/ton at the end of the week. The price fell by 0.77% compared with last week.

II. Market Analysis

The price of aluminium fluoride has been stable this week: at present, the price of aluminium fluoride in Henan is between 9800 and 10200 yuan/ton, while that in Shandong is between 9800 and 10400 yuan/ton.  Zhengzhou Tianrui Grain Technology Co., Ltd. quoted 11,000 yuan per ton of aluminium fluoride, Shandong Luzeng Chemical Aluminum Fluoride to 11,000 yuan per ton, Zhengzhou Zerun Energy Chemical Aluminum Fluoride to 10,000 yuan per ton.

Industry chain: Weekly hydrofluoric acid price trend continued to decline, the recent market situation of manufacturers is poor, downstream refrigerant industry start-up rate remains low, the domestic market demand for hydrofluoric acid is limited, coupled with domestic hydrofluoric acid plant maintain a high start-up rate, domestic spot supply is sufficient, and some manufacturers continue to reduce the factory price. By the end of the weekend, the mainstream of hydrofluoric acid negotiations in the southern region was 9500-10000 yuan/ton, while the price of hydrofluoric acid in the northern market was 9500-10000 yuan/ton. Recently, the domestic market price of hydrofluoric acid has fallen, the demand of the downstream refrigerant industry is poor, the supply of hydrofluoric acid manufacturers is not good, and the market price trend is declining. Although Aluminum fluoride factories which cut or stopped production during the National Day offered fair prices for sale, individual Aluminum fluoride factories lowered their sales promotion and the market price of Aluminum fluoride began to loosen.

3. Future Market Forecast

Analysts of Aluminum Fluoride Industry of Business Society Chemical Branch believe that the price of upstream raw material hydrofluoric acid continues to decline, and individual Aluminum Fluoride manufacturers have lowered their ex-factory prices. Aluminum fluoride prices are expected to decline steadily next week.

I. Acrylic acid price trend:

The average price of acrylic acid was 8066.67 yuan per ton as of September 20, according to the data of the business association’s list. The market of acrylic acid was mainly stable, which was flat compared with the beginning of the week, and increased by 2.98% compared with August 20.

II. Market analysis:

Product: Acrylic acid market prices are running smoothly this week. The fluctuation of supply and demand in the market is not large, and the downstream buying is just in demand. As of the 20th, the price of acrylic acid in Shandong Yukang Chemical Co., Ltd. was temporarily stable, with 8,200 yuan per ton of propionic acid. The specific transaction price was honest. The price of acrylic acid in Wanhua Chemical Petrochemical Company remained stable, with the main supply contract and stable customers. At present, the price of acrylic acid is 7,900 yuan per ton.

Industry chain: This week, the market price of propylene in Shandong upstream rose sharply and then slowly fell, with a weekly increase of 0.69%. The prices of propylene enterprises in Shandong rose by about 300/ton on the 16th and 17th, and remained flat on the 18th. The prices of propylene enterprises slightly declined on the 19th and 20th. At present, the market turnover is around 7850-8150 yuan/ton, and the mainstream price is 7850 yuan/ton. Load of downstream start-up is stable, acrylic acid market inquiry replenishment just needed, more wait-and-see mentality.

Industry: According to the price monitoring of business associations, in the 37 th week of 2019 (9.16-9.20), there were 41 kinds of commodities rising annually in the chemical sector, 11 of which increased by more than 5%, accounting for 13.1% of the monitored commodities in the sector; the first three commodities were hydrochloric acid (157.14%), caustic soda (18.47%) and acetone (13.86%). There are 17 kinds of commodities decreased on a month on month basis, with a total of 1 kind of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 1.2% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three products decreased were dichloromethane (- 5.19%), trichloromethane (- 4.17%) and sulfuric acid (- 2.98%). This week’s average rise and fall was 3.64%.

3. Future market forecast:

Acrylic acid analysts believe that raw propylene market prices rose slightly, the cost of acrylic acid support is limited, downstream buying just needed, cautious wait-and-see. It is expected that the acrylic acid market will be stable in the short term, and more attention should be paid to the transaction situation in the mainstream market.

Price Trend

According to the data from the business associations’list, the market price of propylene (Shandong) has risen slightly in recent days. Because of the Mid-Autumn Festival on Friday, there are only four working days in this week. At the beginning of the week, the average price of enterprises is 7651 yuan/ton, while on Tuesday, it is 7650 yuan/ton. On Wednesday and Thursday, the average price of enterprises is stable at the high price on Wednesday, 7673 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.25%. The circumferential amplitude is 0.30%.

II. Analytical Review

Products: The market price of propylene in Shandong is generally stable. The price of propylene enterprises in Shandong Province increased by 50-100 yuan/ton on September 1st and then increased by 50-100 yuan/ton on September 2nd. On March 5th, only some enterprises increased slightly, but remained stable on June 8th, slightly declined by 50 yuan/ton on September 10th, and increased by 50 yuan/ton on September 11th. Today, the price of propylene enterprises is generally stable. At present, the market turnover is about 7600-7750 yuan/ton, and the mainstream price is about 7600-7750 yuan/ton. The price remains unchanged at 7,600 yuan/ton. As the Mid-Autumn Festival is approaching, downstream manufacturers are actively stocking up, upstream refineries are more willing to push up, shipments are relatively smooth, and transport of dangerous chemicals is limited during the holidays, the spot market is slightly tense.

Industry chain: Upstream, the international crude oil market plunged yesterday after hearing that US President Trump was considering relaxing sanctions on Iran, which had a negative impact on the propylene market. Downstream, downstream manufacturers are still profitable, holiday inventory is active. This week, polypropylene futures prices fluctuated slightly, spot prices declined slightly, with a weekly decline of 0.38%, which had no significant negative impact on propylene. Last weekend, acrylic acid prices rose 200 yuan/ton, up 2.53%, which was good for propylene market. Propylene oxide prices rose slowly, with a weekly increase of 0.65%, which had little impact on propylene. Oxychloropropane market rose at the beginning of the week, rising by 4.11% in seven days, epoxy resin prices rose, two-section manufacturers expected to stock in stages, but there is still some resistance to high-priced raw materials. Actual procurement caution, short-term epichlorohydrin market is expected to rise mainly in favor of the propylene market, while butanol market weekend; A small drop of 0.49% and a small increase of 0.22% in isooctanol were in the high finishing stage, which had little impact on propylene.

3. Future Market Forecast

Propylene analysts from Business Society Chemical Branch believe that: overall, the sharp drop in international crude oil on Thursday has a suppressive effect on the propylene market; however, the downstream market is mostly stable, rising slightly, and near the holidays, the supply is tight, the Mid-Autumn Festival transportation is limited, so the downstream stock is positive, which benefits the propylene market, so propylene is expected to rise steadily or moderately in recent days.

Price Trend

According to the business association’s big list data, the price of domestic pure benzene increased by 100-250 yuan/ton compared with last Friday. This week, the highest price of pure benzene appeared on Friday (September 6). The price ranged from 5300 to 5550 yuan/ton, up 3.05% from last week.

II. Analytical Review

1. Products: This week, the inventory of pure benzene in East China fell again, and the supply of market resources was on the tight side, which formed a favorable support for the price of pure benzene.

2. Crude Oil: This week, international oil prices rose rapidly after a sharp fall. Overall, they fell slightly from last Friday. Brent fell by 0.62% and WTI by 0.79%. Oil prices plunged as European and American manufacturing data sparked fears of global economic weakness and trade disputes. On Wednesday, news from the United States and Iraq warmed up and increased supply risk and oil prices rose rapidly.

3. Related industries: This week, the downstream East China Styrene Plant stopped production and maintenance, resulting in limited replenishment of hydrobenzene resources in East China, which is good for driving up the price of pure benzene.

4. External Disc: The weaker support of external disc at the beginning of the week led to a cautious attitude in the domestic market. Following the rise of international oil price, the price of pure benzene on the outer plate increased. The Asian-American arbitrage window is still open, but the shortage of resources in the early stage has eased and its influence on the market is limited.

3. Future Market Forecast

1. Crude oil: Concerns about the economic slowdown are still high, and crude oil may be vulnerable to shocks next week.

2. Domestic market: domestic pure benzene supply is tight, and Sinopec is expected to increase at present.

Taking into account, pure benzene is expected to continue to rise next week.

I. Price Trend Chart of Polyformaldehyde Market

Price Curve of Polyformaldehyde

(Photo Source: Business Association Commodity Analysis System)

According to the monitoring of business associations, the average price of polyformaldehyde (96) in Shandong this week was 4866 yuan/ton, and the price was stable for the time being.

II. Market Analysis

Products: Shandong Aldehyde Industry Chemical Co., Ltd., with an annual output of 30,000 tons of polyformaldehyde, the price of polyformaldehyde (96) is 4800 yuan/ton with tax, and the price is stable.  Linyi Shengyang Chemical Co., Ltd. produces 9000 tons of polyformaldehyde per year. The price of polyformaldehyde (96) is 4800 yuan/ton with tax, and the price is stable. Nanjing Qianrui Chemical Co., Ltd. quotes 4500 yuan/ton of polyformaldehyde (92) with tax. Zibo Qixing Chemical Technology Co., Ltd. produces 10,000 tons of polyformaldehyde per year, and the price of polyformaldehyde (96) is 4800 yuan/ton with tax. Due to the recent environmental inspection factors, the factory started abnormally and intermittently. The price of the factory is slightly firm.

Industry chain: The domestic methanol market is on the strong side this week. At the beginning of the week, the average domestic methanol market price was 1994 yuan/ton, and at the end of the week it was 2090 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.81%. The downstream demand for polyformaldehyde is general.

3. Future Market Forecast

To sum up, the analysts of polyformaldehyde in business associations believe that polyformaldehyde may be stable in operation.