Price trend

In the first ten days of December, the domestic PA6 market weakened and the price fell. According to the data monitoring of the business community, the average ex factory price of domestic PA6 was 13500 yuan/ton on December 12, up or down by – 3.11% compared with the price level at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

In terms of raw materials: it can be seen from the figure below that caprolactam in China has been in a downward channel in the near future, and the market for raw material pure benzene has weakened due to the decline of crude oil, with insufficient support on the cost side. Domestic caprolactam stock is abundant, and the demand side lags behind. It is expected that the price trend of caprolactam will decline in the short term.

In terms of supply: the operating rate of domestic PA6 polymerization enterprises decreased by a narrow margin, and the overall load level was about 60%. Last week, the output was stable and the supply of goods was abundant. In addition, the production of new units in the early stage will also store pressure on the supply side.

Demand: In the downstream, the textile enterprises’ load is average, the nylon filament starts to decline in a narrow range, and the stock of PA6 chips decreases. The market competition was strengthened, and the high-end offers were generally not smooth. The buyer just needs to stock up and buy cautiously, and the wait-and-see mentality is biased.

Future market forecast

The PA6 market fell last week. The load of domestic polymerization plants has decreased by a narrow margin, and the supply is still sufficient. On the demand side, the demand is relatively weak, and the rigid demand support is weakened. The falling cost and the contradiction between supply and demand drag the market. Generally speaking, the market fundamentals are weak, and the market may continue its weak consolidation operation.

This week (December 2 to December 9), the market price of 1 # electrolytic manganese was temporarily stable. The spot market price in East China was 17550 yuan/ton last weekend and 17550 yuan/ton this weekend, unchanged.

In terms of manganese ore: Tianjin Port is in a high price mood. In terms of prices, a small number of Gabon’s transaction prices are around 41.5 yuan/ton, Australia’s 45 yuan/ton, and Australia’s seeds 40 yuan/ton. In October 2022, China’s total imports of manganese ore will be 2.635 million tons, with a month on month decrease of 15.7% and a year-on-year increase of 2.1%.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices reflects the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of a bar chart based on the concept of price trend K-line. Investors can buy, sell and invest according to the changes in the K-bar chart. Red means rising; Green means: down; The height of the K column indicates the range of rise and fall. It can be seen from the weekly and monthly electrolytic manganese K-bar chart above that, since March 2022, the electrolytic manganese has continued to decline. After a slight rise in the price at the end of August, it continues to stabilize temporarily. Since the end of September, the price has risen slightly. Since October, the price has remained unchanged for a long time, fluctuated slightly in November, and stabilized temporarily in December.

The market price of electrolytic manganese is temporarily stable this week, with the mainstream price of 16200-16500 yuan/ton. The market quotation is slightly confused. In terms of supply, the overall operating rate of enterprises is low, and the automobile transportation in some areas is blocked. Under the influence of the active production restriction of enterprises, the supply of electrolytic manganese is slightly strained. The quotation of some goods in the market is relatively high, but the overall transaction is limited, and the game psychology of the supply and demand parties is still strong. The downstream demand is still soft in the near future, and the market is dominated by just needed procurement. However, as the downstream steel plants enter the winter storage season, the market is expected to improve to some extent in the near future. The performance of steel recruitment is average, the price has risen slightly compared with the early stage, and the market mentality has been slightly boosted. In general, the electrolytic manganese market is currently operating stably on the whole. There is a lot of market news, waiting for the guidance of the steel bidding. It is expected to maintain a temporary stable operation in the short term under the pattern of weak supply and demand. In the long term, the demand for winter storage of subsequent steel plants still exists. If the steel plant purchases more, the market price will have a narrow space to rise.

Price trend of domestic sodium metabisulfite

According to the monitoring of the business community, the price of domestic sodium metabisulfite continued to be weak this week. The average price of industrial sodium metabisulfite at the beginning of the week was 2433.33 yuan/ton, and the average price at the weekend was 2366.67 yuan/ton, down 2.74% during the week.

In December, affected by the continuous low cost of raw materials and the continued weakness of downstream demand, some enterprises lowered the ex factory price of sodium metabisulfite again, driving the domestic market price of sodium metabisulfite to continue to decline. This week, the domestic market price range of industrial sodium metabisulfite was 2300-2500 yuan/ton, and most of the prices were concentrated around 2350 yuan/ton. Enterprises mainly completed orders from old customers. (The above prices refer to the external quotation of domestic mainstream enterprises. Some enterprises that have not been quoted are temporarily excluded from their scope. The prices are for reference only and have nothing to do with the final pricing of manufacturers. For details, please contact each manufacturer for consultation.).

In November, the domestic soda ash price was weak, falling by 0.45% in the month. In November, the domestic sulfur price continued to rebound, rising by 11.32% in the month. The raw material cost fluctuated at a low level, and the market price of sodium metabisulfite in the future recovered and came under pressure.

Future market forecast

The analysts of the business community believe that the raw material cost fluctuates at a low level, and the downstream purchase and sales are cautious. In the short term, the domestic sodium metabisulfite market price will recover and bear pressure.

According to the data monitored by the business community, the PP market fell in late November, and the spot prices of wire drawing brands decreased. As of November 28, the mainstream offer price of domestic manufacturers and traders T30S (wire drawing) was about 7866.67 yuan/ton, up or down by – 0.32% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

Industrial chain. It is expected that in December, the demand will further weaken, and with the escalation of the national public health and security incidents, the propylene market may fluctuate downward.

The propylene price is relatively strong, and the recent PP cost side support is fair. In terms of industry load, the operating rate of PP polymerization enterprises last week exceeded 80%. There is pressure on the supply side. In terms of inventory, the storage position of two barrels of oil is about 760000 tons, a narrow decline compared with the previous period. In terms of demand, the market of downstream products is not good, and the stock volume of plastic weaving enterprises and BOPP enterprises is gradually reduced. In addition to the negative impact of global macroeconomic prospects and imported inflation, the market mentality is empty, and businesses generally follow the trend.

In terms of fiber materials, according to the data monitored by the business community, as of November 28, the spot price of domestic fiber PP fell on the whole. The mainstream offer price of domestic producers and traders Z30S (fiber) is about 7983.33 yuan/ton, up or down by -0.62% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month, and down by – 6.99% year-on-year. Last week, the load of downstream non-woven enterprises, the main force of PP fiber, stabilized, the profit of spunbonded non-woven fabrics was average, and the demand of terminal enterprises was stable. The digestion speed of nonwoven end products is average, and enterprises prefer to just take the goods for fiber PP replenishment. The site is empty, and the operation of shock adjustment may still be maintained in the short term.

In terms of meltblown materials, the meltblown PP market fell by a narrow margin last week. As of November 28, the average quotation of domestic meltblown material sample enterprises monitored by the business community was about 9000 yuan/ton, up or down by – 0.18% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month, and – 7.06% year-on-year. In terms of international health events, the current situation in various countries is still not optimistic, and the epidemic situation in China and neighboring countries has rebounded recently. However, it has limited pulling effect on medical melt blown cloth materials. The domestic and foreign demand has not significantly helped, and the support for spot prices is poor. There is abundant supply of meltblown materials in the market, and domestic meltblown materials and cloth enterprises generally start construction, but the saturation is high. Melt blown materials are mainly affected by the negative cost side, and it is expected that the short-term market will be dominated by narrow amplitude shocks.

Future market forecast

PP analysts from the business agency believed that the polypropylene market fell by a narrow margin last week, and the raw propylene market was fair. The terminal enterprise just needs to pick up the goods, and the follow-up lags behind. The buyer’s operation became more cautious, and the trading in the market gradually declined. It is expected that the PP market will still be weak in the short term.

It can be seen from the above figure that the price of domestic mainstream urea market rose sharply this month: the price of urea rose from 2506.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 2798.00 yuan/ton at the end of the month, an increase of 11.65%. A year-on-year increase of 12.82%.

On November 29, the urea commodity index was 130.14, unchanged from yesterday, 14.57% lower than the cycle’s highest point of 152.33 (2022-05-15), and 134.06% higher than the lowest point of 55.60 on August 17, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

In November, the price of urea rose sharply, with a weekly maximum of 3.79%. From the manufacturer’s quotation, the price of domestic urea mainstream market rose sharply this month.

The upstream support is general, and the downstream demand increases

From the upstream and downstream industrial chain data, the urea upstream products generally fell slightly this month: the price of LNG fell slightly, from 5450.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 4514.00 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a drop of 17.17%, 35.42% year-on-year. Yangquan anthracite (washing medium fast) is 1630 yuan/ton, with a high price consolidation. The price of liquid ammonia rose sharply, from 4096.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 4623.33 yuan/ton at the end of the month, an increase of 12.86%, and a year-on-year increase of 4.76%. The price of melamine at the downstream of urea rose slightly this month, from 8266.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 8333.33 yuan/ton at the end of the month, up 0.81%.

In terms of demand, winter storage of chemical fertilizers has been fully started, industrial demand has increased, and export orders have been orderly promoted. The operating rate of the compound fertilizer plant has risen, and the enthusiasm for urea procurement is good. The board and melamine enterprises started in general, and just needed to purchase. From the aspect of supply: environmental protection inspection in Shanxi has been delayed. Some gas enterprises began to shut down for maintenance, and daily urea production further decreased. The shipment of superposed urea is blocked, and the supply and demand in some regions are misaligned.

Urea rose slightly in the aftermarket

The urea market may rise slightly in the first ten days of December. At the end of the month, the upstream anthracite and natural gas prices showed an upward trend, and cost support increased. The downstream agricultural demand is followed up appropriately, and the industrial demand is purchased on demand. The daily output of urea is about 150000 tons, and the supply is tight. In the future, urea may rise slightly.

According to the monitoring data of the business community, as of December 5, 2022, the reference of the average ex factory price of domestic industrial dimethyl carbonate was 5733 yuan/ton. Compared with December 1, 2022 (the reference price of dimethyl carbonate was 5633 yuan/ton), the price increased by 100 yuan/ton, or 1.78%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of the business community that in the first week of December (12.01-12.05), the domestic dimethyl carbonate market as a whole rose slightly. The macro favorable policy has brought positive support to the dimethyl carbonate market. The confidence of the dimethyl carbonate industry has increased. In addition, the rising raw material propylene oxide market has strengthened the cost support of dimethyl carbonate in December. On December 5, the overall focus of the dimethyl carbonate market has risen, and the atmosphere in the market has slightly warmed. Some dimethyl carbonate plants have slightly raised the price of dimethyl carbonate by 100-200 yuan/ton. The domestic price of dimethyl carbonate is around 5600-5900 yuan/ton.

In terms of upstream propylene oxide, the overall domestic propylene oxide market rose in December. According to the data monitoring of the business community, the reference price of propylene oxide was 9162.50 yuan/ton on December 4, up 0.27% compared with December 1 (9137.50 yuan/ton).

Future trend analysis

At present, the action force in the market of dimethyl carbonate is mainly from the macro positive support and cost support. In addition, the adjustment under different production and sales conditions of dimethyl carbonate in various factories, the transaction of dimethyl carbonate is relatively flat, and the overall demand side support is general. The dimethyl carbonate data analyst of the business community believes that in the short term, the domestic market of dimethyl carbonate is mainly adjusted and operated in multiple intervals, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the changes in the information on the supply and demand side.

1、 Price trend

As can be seen from the figure above, the domestic neopentyl glycol market price fell sharply this month, and the average price of the domestic neopentyl glycol mainstream market fell from 10066.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 8966.67 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decline of 10.93%. On November 29, the neopentyl glycol commodity index was 43.21, up 0.16 points from yesterday, down 58.30% from the cycle’s highest point of 103.61 (2021-09-22), and up 0.37% from the lowest point of 43.05 on November 28, 2022. (Note: the cycle refers to 2021-09-01 to now).

2、 Market analysis

The quotation of the mainstream neopentyl glycol manufacturers fell sharply this month

From the perspective of neopentyl glycol upstream raw material market, the domestic isobutyraldehyde market price fell slightly this month. The price of isobutyraldehyde dropped from 6600.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 6233.33 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 5.56%. The factory price of formaldehyde in China fell slightly this month. The price of formaldehyde fell from 1383.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 1343.33 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 2.89%. The price of upstream raw material market fell slightly, and the price support for neopentyl glycol was insufficient due to the influence of supply and demand.

3、 Future market forecast

The overall trend of neopentyl glycol market in the first half of December was mainly down due to slight shock. The upstream isobutyraldehyde and formaldehyde market declined slightly, and cost support weakened. The market price of downstream coatings is average, and the enthusiasm for downstream procurement is average. The neopentyl glycol analysts of the business community believe that the market price of neopentyl glycol in the short term may fluctuate slightly under the influence of supply and demand, raw materials and other aspects.

From November 1, 2022 to November 3, 2022, the market price of 1 # electrolytic manganese rose. The spot market price in East China was 17300 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 17550 yuan/ton at the end of the month, with a monthly increase of 1.45%.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices reflects the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of a bar chart based on the concept of price trend K-line. Investors can buy, sell and invest according to the changes in the K-bar chart. Red means rising; Green means: down; The height of the K column indicates the range of rise and fall. It can be seen from the weekly and monthly electrolytic manganese K-bar chart above that the electrolytic manganese market stopped falling and recovered after entering August. Although the increase rate in August and September was less than 1%, the increase rate in October was 3.59%, and the electrolytic manganese market began to recover. From the weekly chart, we can see that the electrolytic manganese market has maintained a temporary stable operation for most of the time, and the price has risen significantly near the end of October.

Manganese ore: In October, the manganese ore market was strong,. As of November 29, the market inquiry enthusiasm of Tianjin Port has not decreased, and the quotation has been firm. The quotation of semi carbonic acid is about 34.5 yuan/ton, that of Gabon is about 40.5 yuan/ton, and that of Australia is 43.5-44 yuan/ton. Qinzhou Port manganese ore market continued to hold up the price sentiment, with firm quotations and higher transaction prices. The transaction price of semi carbonic acid in South Africa is 37 yuan/ton, that of Australia is 45-45.5 yuan/ton, and that of Gabon is about 42.5-43 yuan/ton. In October 2022, China’s total imports of manganese ore will be 2.635 million tons, with a month on month decrease of 15.7% and a year-on-year increase of 2.1%.

The market of electrolytic manganese fluctuated in the first ten days of the year, and the price rebounded significantly near the end of the month. At present, the mainstream market price is 15800-16000 yuan/ton, and the price has obviously warmed up. The market has a strong price mentality, and some enterprises have a strong price mentality, and they are reluctant to sell. In terms of supply, under the call of enterprises to reduce production, the recent operating rate is still low, the market supply is limited, and some quotations are high, but the overall transaction is limited, and the game psychology of both the supply and demand sides is still strong. The downstream demand is still soft in the near future, and the market is dominated by just needed procurement. The performance of the steel recruitment was fair, the price was higher than in the early stage, and the market mentality was slightly boosted. In general, the electrolytic manganese market lacks the support of actual demand. Under the pattern of weak supply and demand, it is expected to maintain a temporary stable operation in the short term. In the long term, the implementation of production restriction by subsequent enterprises may be beneficial to the market. The tight supply will boost the market mentality. It is expected that the price will be stable and strong, but the room for growth is limited.

In November, the spot price of silicon manganese was on the strong side. In the first ten days, the mining volume of Hegang Group increased month on month and month on month. The market confidence improved, and the futures trend improved significantly. The purchasing atmosphere of the whole market was active. In the last ten days, the news of production stoppage and reduction of downstream steel mills kept coming out, and the price decreased slightly. According to the price monitoring of the business community, the quotation in Ningxia (specification: FeMN68Si18) was about 7050-7150 yuan/ton on November 30, and the average market price was 7091 yuan/ton, up 1.55% from the beginning of the month.

Relevant data:

In September 2022, China’s imports of electrolytic manganese were 2000.39 tons, up 1000.38 tons month on month; In September 2022, the export volume of China’s electrolytic manganese was 23464.81 tons, up 3643.88 tons month on month.

Overview of magnesium metal trend in November

In November, the daily average price of domestic magnesium ingots fluctuated between 22600-25000 yuan/ton, and the average price in the cycle was 24072.62 yuan/ton, with a rise and fall of – 7.17%. In the first half of the month, the price of magnesium ingots was stable and weak, and the overall price had become a downward trend. Supported by raw materials such as ferrosilicon and coal, magnesium plants had limited concessions. In the second half of this month, the demand continued to fail to follow up. In the absence of favorable factors in the market, the price of magnesium ingots fell under pressure. At present, the price has fallen back to the lowest level in recent three months.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, as of November 29, the taxable spot exchange in the magnesium ingot market was 22866.67 yuan/ton, down about 2000-2500 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month, a decline of 7.17% and 37.64% from last year.

Market analysis

Export

According to customs statistics, in October, China exported 22966 tons of magnesium ingots, an increase of 23.4% month on month, a decrease of 5.6% year on year, and an accumulative increase of 7.1% year on year. After three consecutive months of decline, the export volume of magnesium ingots rebounded significantly in October. Under the influence of exchange rate, foreign countries have a weak mood of preparing goods before the festival, and the export volume is expected to decline in November.

Output

The output of magnesium ingots in China was 75100 tons in October and 756200 tons of raw magnesium from January to October, up 1.61% year on year. The output of Shaanxi in October was 45100 tons, up 0.45% month on month and 44.09% year on year; The output of Shanxi in October was about 18400 tons, up 39.39% month on month and 15.00% year on year.

Raw materials

Ferrosilicon rose 1.29% in November

In terms of ferrosilicon, the average market price in Ningxia was 8082.86 yuan/ton on the 29th, and the trend of ferrosilicon rebounded at the bottom in the early stage. In view of insufficient market demand, the transaction price of ferrosilicon weakened again. As the futures fluctuated before the end of the month, the spot price rose again.

In terms of coal, the price of raw coal is stable but weak. The loss scope of Lanzhou charcoal enterprises continued to expand, some enterprises lowered the factory price slightly, a few enterprises suspended sales, and the operating rate declined.

Future market forecast

To sum up, the magnesium ingot market is under pressure at present. In the short term, under the condition of poor demand, the manufacturers are in a strong shipping mood. The industry is less pessimistic than the future market, and the price of magnesium ingot will continue to decline.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business community, the average factory price of domestic chlorinated paraffins 52 was 6233 yuan/ton on November 1, and 5933 yuan/ton on November 28. The price of chlorinated paraffins fell 4.81% this month.

2、 Market analysis

According to the weekly increase and decrease from September 5, 2022 to November 27, 2022, the domestic chlorinated paraffins will rise and fall with each other during the cycle, which is more stable. The downward trend in November was the main trend, and the largest increase in October was – 2.14% in the week of November 7.

The chlorinated paraffins market trend fell sharply this month. In the first week of November, the price of chlorinated paraffins was generally stable, and the market did not fluctuate significantly. The overall price of raw materials is stable, and the cost support is average. Downstream procurement is mainly based on demand, and the market trading atmosphere is poor. In the second week of November, the price of chlorinated paraffins began to decline mainly, and the market fluctuated and fell to the end of the month. The price of liquid chlorine of raw materials decreased, and the cost support weakened. The supply of chlorinated paraffins is fair, the downstream demand is sluggish, the trading on the market is limited, and the wait-and-see mood in the industry increases. As of November 28, the ex factory quotation of chlorinated paraffins 52 in Anhui Province was about 6400 yuan/ton, that in Northeast China was about 6000 yuan/ton, and that in Shandong Province was about 5400 yuan/ton.

In terms of raw material liquid wax, the price of liquid wax rose first and then fell this month, which fluctuated with the crude oil market. In the first half of the month, the market supply was tight, the price continued to strengthen, and began to decline in the second half of the month. At present, the liquid wax is shipped stably, and the transaction is fair. In terms of raw material liquid chlorine, the price of liquid chlorine decreased steadily this month. In the first ten days of November, the liquid chlorine market generally operated smoothly, with slight shocks in some areas and poor on-site shipments. Since the middle of November, the price of liquid chlorine in Shandong has dropped sharply, and the shipment on the market is slow, so the overall flow of goods is not smooth.

3、 Future market forecast

According to the chlorinated paraffin analysts of the business community, the current cost support of chlorinated paraffin is weakened, the demand side remains weak, and the chlorinated paraffin market is weak. Due to the impact of domestic epidemic transportation, there is a large price difference among different regions in China. It is expected that in the short term, the chlorinated paraffin market will be dominated by narrow range finishing operation.