1. What is alumina?

Aluminum oxide, also known as aluminum trioxide, is a dehydrated product obtained from bauxite through Bayer process, sintering process, and other processes. It is a white powder or sand like substance.

2. What are the quality indicators of alumina?

The quality indicators of alumina mainly include chemical composition and physical properties. According to the provisions of the national standard GB/T24487-2022 for alumina, the main chemical composition indicators include AL2O3, SiO2, Fe2O3, Na2O, CaO, and ignition reduction content; The main physical performance indicators include specific surface area and particle size.

How is alumina classified?

According to different uses, alumina can be divided into two categories: one is used as a raw material for electrolytic aluminum, called metallurgical grade alumina; The other type is non metallurgical alumina used in fields such as ceramics, chemicals, pharmaceuticals, etc., called special alumina, also known as chemical alumina. Currently, the majority of global alumina is used for electrolytic aluminum smelting and production, while only about 5% is used for other purposes.

What quality standards are used in the alumina industry?

At present, there are two aluminum oxide standards issued and implemented in China: one is the national standard “Aluminum Oxide” (GB/T24487-2022), which is applicable to aluminum oxide produced from bauxite, recycled aluminum oxide raw materials, and other raw materials used for the production of metal aluminum by molten salt electrolysis. It is also applicable to aluminum oxide used as raw materials for the production of corundum, ceramics, refractory products, and other aluminum oxide chemical products; The second is the industry standard “Metallurgical Grade Aluminum Oxide” (YS/T803-2012), which is only applicable to the aluminum oxide used in the production of electrolytic aluminum by the molten salt electrolysis method, that is, metallurgical grade aluminum oxide.

5. What are the main production costs of alumina?

The production cost of alumina mainly includes raw material costs and manufacturing expenses. Among them, the cost of raw materials mainly includes bauxite, caustic soda, and energy, with the proportion of these items accounting for approximately 39.7%, 15.6%, and 25% in 2022, respectively; Manufacturing costs mainly include labor costs, depreciation, and repair costs, accounting for approximately 15.7% of the total.

What are the production processes for alumina?

The production process of alumina mainly includes Bayer method and sintering method. The process flow of Bayer method roughly includes the following main steps: crushing bauxite and mixing it with caustic soda to produce qualified raw ore slurry; Pre desilication, dilution, and sedimentation separation of red mud for the original ore slurry; The precipitate is decomposed into aluminum hydroxide through seed crystallization; Aluminum hydroxide is separated, washed, and roasted to obtain alumina.

The sintering process involves the following main steps: producing fine abrasive slurry from bauxite, limestone, and soda ash in proportion; After sintering, dissolution, and desilication procedures, prepare sodium aluminate solution; After the solution undergoes carbonation decomposition, the precipitated aluminum hydroxide and sodium carbonate mother liquor are separated; Roast aluminum hydroxide to form alumina.

What is the relationship between aluminum oxide and electrolytic aluminum?

Aluminum oxide is the main raw material for the production of electrolytic aluminum. Usually, 4 tons of bauxite can produce 1.92 tons of aluminum oxide and then 1 ton of electrolytic aluminum.

From May 26 to June 2, 2023, the antimony ingot market in East China remained stable for the time being. Last weekend, the price was at 82625 yuan/ton, and this weekend, the price was at 82625 yuan/ton, unchanged.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices uses the concept of a price trend K-line to reflect weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. From the above chart, it can be seen that the antimony ingot market has recently shown an upward trend before and after the Spring Festival. It entered a stable period after mid March, entered a downward channel in mid April, and the decline slowed down at the end of April. The trend remained stable in May, and prices entered an upward channel in June. After a brief period of stability in July, the market continued to decline again. After August, the market gradually stabilized and remained stable for 8 consecutive weeks. At the end of October, prices began to decline continuously, and after December, prices continued to recover, After three consecutive weeks of downward adjustments in mid to late March, the market remained stable for the time being.

This week, the price of European strategic small metal antimony has temporarily stabilized, with a price of $120050/ton as of June 2nd. Currently, the overall market atmosphere is on the wait-and-see side.

The antimony ingot market price was stable this week, and the supply side enterprises started to operate with little change. The overall operation was stable, and the manufacturers still maintained the attitude of being reluctant to sell and maintaining high prices. In terms of demand, there is still no significant improvement in terminal demand, and the antimony oxide market is operating weakly. Sales performance is still poor, and market trading is cold. Overall, although antimony ingot manufacturers are firmly supporting prices, the market transaction performance is not good, which is not conducive to enterprises withdrawing funds. However, downstream demand market expectations are difficult to improve, and the market performance is relatively weak under low demand. In the future, the business society predicts that the antimony ingot market will mainly operate in a stable and weak manner.

This week, the antimony oxide market has temporarily stabilized operation, with downstream construction generally stable. The demand for antimony ingots remains strong, while the intention to receive goods from upstream is weak, with most of them maintaining on-demand procurement.

1、 Price trend

According to the commodity analysis system of the business community, the price of imported potassium chloride in the domestic market fell sharply in May, from 3400.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 2850.00 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decline of 16.18%. On May 30th, the potassium chloride (imported) commodity index was 92.06, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 47.27% from the cycle’s highest point of 174.60 points (2022-06-21), and an increase of 58.04% from the lowest point of 58.25 points on August 6th, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from March 1st, 2012 to present)

2、 Market analysis

From the supply side perspective, the prices of mainstream domestic potassium chloride distributors have significantly decreased this month At the end of the month, 62% of the port’s white potassium was around 2800 yuan/ton, 60% of the port’s red particles were around 3000 yuan/ton, and 62% of the border trade’s Russian white potassium was around 2400 yuan/ton, all of which showed a decrease. The potassium chloride port has a storage capacity of approximately 2.4 to 2.5 million tons.

From the demand side, the market price of potassium carbonate fell sharply this month, from 8620.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 8180.00 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 5.10%, and the price at the end of the month fell 15.89% year-on-year. The factory price of potassium nitrate has significantly decreased this month, from 5475.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 5100.00 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 6.85%, a year-on-year decrease of 32.45% compared to the same period last year. Overall, the downstream market for potassium chloride has experienced a significant decline. Agricultural demand has weakened, industrial demand is average, the market has entered the off-season, and downstream enthusiasm for purchasing potassium chloride has weakened.

3、 Future Market Forecast

In mid to early June, the trend of potassium chloride market may fluctuate slightly, with consolidation being the main trend. Salt Lake and Zangge potassium chloride prices have stabilized at low levels, with contracts being the main focus. Downstream agricultural demand weakens, industrial demand is average, and procurement is mainly on demand. Supply exceeds demand, and the price of potassium chloride may fluctuate and fall in the future.

Aluminum prices fluctuated sideways in May

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average price of domestic aluminum ingots in the East China market on May 30, 2023 was 18363.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.69% compared to the aluminum price of 18490 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month (May 1).

In the long term, the current price is in the sideways range after a high price decline, and has been fluctuating in the range of 17500 to 19500 yuan/ton.

Macro factors

In May, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25BP, pushing them up to 5-5.25%, a new high in recent years; A preliminary agreement was reached on the 27th of the US debt ceiling negotiation. Although the FOMC of the Federal Reserve said that the interest rate increase was gradually coming to an end, it still needed time to verify and observe whether the Federal Reserve started to cut interest rates.

2. In May, the Markit manufacturing PMI index in the United States recorded 48.5, a decrease compared to April. In April, the core CPI in the United States increased by 5.5% year-on-year, while the PCE price index increased by 4.7% year-on-year, higher than expected and previous 4.6%; The eurozone manufacturing index PMI further declined to 44.6, and the core CPI of the eurozone increased by 5.6% year-on-year in April. Economic data from Europe and the United States performed poorly, with inflation improving less than expected.

On the domestic side, the year-on-year growth rate of domestic CPI in April was the lowest level since February 2021, and PPI data fell simultaneously. The RMB exchange rate broke the 7 integer mark in May. After the May Day holiday, the growth rate of industrial product consumption and production continued to slow down.

Fundamental factors

On the demand side, terminal consumption is weak, and real estate investment and new construction data are poor. In May, consumption gradually became flat, while in April, the operating rate of aluminum companies slightly declined. The operating rate of aluminum companies continued to decline on a weekly basis, with weaker orders for building profiles and photovoltaics. The operating rate of alloys, cables, and aluminum foil remained stable, but new orders for enterprises declined.

On the supply side, in May 2023, the production of electrolytic aluminum was approximately 3.43 million tons (estimated), and the daily chemical production was approximately 110600 tons, with an average daily production continuing to increase. In April, China’s primary aluminum production was 3.3149 million tons, with an average daily production of 110500 tons; Compared to March 2023, the daily production increased by 109400 tons. At present, the electrolytic aluminum industry has built a production capacity of 47.649 million tons, with an operating capacity of 40.397 million tons and an operating rate of 84.78%. Recently, we have been paying attention to the electricity situation and stability performance in Yunnan during the high water period in June, and the pace of resuming production in Yunnan is approaching.

Inventory data: Domestic inventory has significantly declined; Data shows that as of May 29th, the mainstream market of domestic electrolytic aluminum ingots had a social inventory of 573000 tons, which was 798000 tons compared to April 27th, and 225000 tons were removed from stock.

Future market forecast

From the supply side perspective, production slightly increased in May, and inventory data shows a clear trend of inventory depletion in the electrolytic aluminum industry. The main game point currently lies in the actual supply and demand changes in the later stage. It is expected that aluminum prices will mainly fluctuate around 18500 yuan/ton in the short term, and we will be watching downstream consumption intensity in the near future.

Price trend chart of sodium pyrosulfite in China

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the price of domestic sodium metabisulfite continued to decline in May. The average price of industrial grade sodium metabisulfite on May 1st was 2350.00 yuan/ton, and on May 29th it was 2250.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.26% during the month.

In April, the price of domestic soda ash fell by 3.99%, while the price of sulfur significantly decreased by 32.55%. The upstream raw material cost continued to decline weakly, and the cost continued to decline. The downstream trading entities had a strong wait-and-see attitude, and the overall procurement was relatively cautious. In May, manufacturers successively lowered the ex factory price of sodium metabisulfite, driving the overall weak downward trend of the domestic market price of sodium metabisulfite.

As of May 29, the price of domestic soda ash had dropped significantly by 16.6% in the month, and the price of sulfur had rebounded from the bottom, with an overall increase of 8.33% in the month. On the whole, the cost of upstream raw materials of sodium metabisulfite was still at a low level, and the continued decline of the cost would further suppress the price of domestic sodium metabisulfite market in the future.

At present, the inventory of domestic sodium metabisulfite manufacturers is about 30%. In addition, the current domestic market price of sodium metabisulfite is at a lower level than that in previous years, the low processing profit of enterprises and the relatively low inventory of sodium metabisulfite market price play a certain role in supporting the bottom.

Analysts from the business community believe that the price of upstream raw materials continues to decline in a weak way, and the cost continues to fall under the low pressure system. It is expected that the domestic sodium metabisulfite market price will still have some room to fall in June. Supported by the relatively low inventory of enterprises, the overall decline of the sodium metabisulfite market price in June is limited.

This week (May 22-26, 2023), downstream demand for viscose staple fibers was average, while upstream raw materials remained strong and stable. Factories showed strong willingness to back up prices, while viscose staple fiber prices remained stable. The overall market performance remained calm. Downstream people’s cotton yarn is still lukewarm and sluggish, with weak market demand and mainly relying on demand orders, resulting in stable prices.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the center of gravity of viscose staple fiber prices has slightly shifted upwards. As of May 26th, the factory quotation for 1.2D * 38mm viscose staple fiber in China is 13360 yuan/ton, which is the same as last week’s price.

In terms of cost: The production cost of viscose staple fibers has not changed much, and the raw materials are maintained, with limited cost support. The price center of raw material dissolved pulp remains stable, with the domestic market mainly maintaining stability. Downstream procurement is based on demand, and businesses often execute early orders, with stable shipments being the main focus.

Downstream cotton yarn market

Human cotton yarn is relatively stable, with average transactions and prices basically maintained. However, some enterprises have reduced prices and promotions under inventory pressure. According to the analysis system of the commodity market of the Business Society, as of May 21, the average ex factory price of human cotton yarn (30S, ring spinning, first-class product) was 17566 yuan/ton, and the price remained unchanged.

Future Market Forecast

Recently, the market performance of viscose staple fibers has been calm, with companies still focusing on executing orders and firm offers. It is difficult for terminal demand to show significant improvement in the short term, with downstream procurement being the main focus. The market has once again entered a wait-and-see period of adjustment, focusing on downstream demand. Analysts from Business Society predict that the short-term market for viscose staple fibers and rayon yarn will remain stable.

According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, the price index of the domestic rare earth market rose slightly, and the domestic medium and heavy rare earth market recovered slightly. On May 18, the rare earth index was 442 points, 56.11% lower than the cycle’s highest point of 1007 (2022-02-24), and 63.10% higher than the lowest point of 271 on September 13, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present)

The prices of domestic dysprosium oxide, dysprosium iron alloy, terbium oxide, and metallic terbium have slightly rebounded. As of the 19th, the price of dysprosium oxide was 2.055 million yuan/ton, an increase of 7.87% compared to the beginning of the month; The price of dysprosium iron alloy was 1.99 million yuan/ton, an increase of 6.13% compared to the beginning of the month; The price of dysprosium metal is 2.63 million yuan/ton, with a stable price trend; The price of terbium series in China has mainly increased, with terbium oxide prices reaching 8.2 million yuan/ton and metal terbium prices reaching 10.3 million yuan/ton.

In mid May, the heavy rare earth market rebounded slightly, and the recent inquiries increased. In addition, the price of rare earth in the early period has declined for a long time. Affected by the small increase in demand, the domestic market price of heavy rare earth rebounded. The domestic medium and heavy rare earth market is relatively active in terms of inquiry and quotation, with a slight increase in trading volume. However, downstream demand is still weak, metal factory orders are relatively scarce, and magnetic material factories mainly consume existing inventory. In addition, with an increase in rare earth mines from Southeast Asia, the supply of rare earth is sufficient, and the pessimism in the rare earth market remains heavy.

According to statistics, the production and sales of new energy vehicles completed 640000 and 636000 units respectively in April, a year-on-year increase of 1.1 times. The sales of new energy vehicles accounted for 29.5% of the total sales of new vehicles. From January to April, the total production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 2.291 million and 2.222 million, respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 42.8%. The sales of new energy vehicles accounted for 27% of the total sales of new vehicles. Recently, the country has accelerated the construction of charging infrastructure to better support the entry of new energy vehicles into rural areas, which is conducive to unleashing the consumption potential of rural areas, increasing the sales of new energy vehicles, and increasing the production and sales of new energy vehicles, which is beneficial for the domestic prices of medium and heavy rare earths.

After years of governance, the domestic rare earth industry has gradually formed a supply pattern with large groups as the main body and relatively concentrated raw materials. With the continuous development of the foreign rare earth industry, China’s share of rare earth production has decreased from 90% to 70%. According to statistics, China’s rare earth export data in April remained generally flat, with imports increasing by 52.3% compared to the previous month. From January to April 2023, a total of 16411.2 tons of rare earth commodities were exported, a year-on-year decrease of 4.1%; From January to April, imported rare earth commodities reached 59643.8 tons, a year-on-year increase of 41.9%. The increase of China’s imports of rare earth commodities has correspondingly suppressed the price rise of domestic medium and heavy rare earth markets.

Future forecast: The supply of rare earth production enterprises is normal in the near future, and the downstream demand has not changed much. It is expected that the price of heavy rare earth market will fluctuate and rise mainly in the short term. In the medium and long term, there is a lack of primary and renewable supply sources. Dysprosium and terbium oxides will also face shortages. In addition, driven by emerging and traditional demands such as energy-saving motors, industrial robots, wind power, variable frequency air conditioners, consumer electronics, the global demand for rare earth permanent magnets is expected to continue to grow.

Price trend chart of sodium pyrosulfite in China

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the overall price of domestic sodium metabisulfite remained stable and advanced this week. The average price of industrial grade sodium metabisulfite at the beginning of the week was 2266.67 yuan/ton, and the average price at the weekend was 2266.67 yuan/ton, indicating a stable and advanced overall trend.

This week, the domestic sodium metabisulfite market performed fairly well. The market price of industrial grade sodium metabisulfite ranged from 2200-2500 yuan/ton, and most prices were concentrated around 2200-2350 yuan/ton. The inventory of the enterprise is about 30%, mainly to complete old customer orders. (The above prices refer to external quotations from mainstream domestic enterprises, and some enterprises that have not been quoted are temporarily excluded from their scope. The prices are for reference only and are not related to the manufacturer’s final pricing. For more information, please contact each manufacturer for consultation.).

As of May 19, the price of domestic soda ash continued to be weak, falling by 7.17% in the month, and the price of sulfur continued to rise, rising by 9.26% in the month. The overall price of raw materials rose and fell with each other. Downstream trade entities had a strong wait-and-see attitude. In general, the overall price of upstream raw materials was falling, and the fluctuating and declining cost would suppress the future market price of sodium metabisulfite to some extent.

Future Market Forecast

Analysts from the business community believe that the cost of raw materials has fluctuated and declined. Under the pressure of cost, the domestic market price of sodium metabisulfite will continue to be under pressure and weak in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the mainstream price of styrene in Shandong has been fluctuating and declining recently. At the beginning of the week, the average price of styrene in Shandong was 7981.67/ton, while on the weekend, the average price of styrene in Shandong was 7760.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.78%. The price has decreased by 24.38% compared to the same period last year.

styrene

Recently, the styrene market price has continued to decline. From the above chart, it can be seen that the price of styrene has been mainly declining in the past two months, and prices have continued to decline this week. The international crude oil price has fallen, the pure benzene market has weakened, and cost support is poor. Downstream markets are mostly in the off-season, mainly in demand. Domestic styrene supply is relatively abundant, and spot transactions are poor. The styrene market has fluctuated and declined.

In terms of raw materials, the price of pure benzene has slightly decreased this week. On May 15th, the price of pure benzene was 6703-7120 yuan/ton (average price 6911 yuan/ton). On Friday (May 19th), the price of pure benzene was 6603-6880 yuan/ton (average price 6741/ton), a decrease of 5.18% compared to last week and a decrease of 25.73% compared to the same period last year. Downstream buying rose and entered the market, with high volume trading. Some refineries in Shandong have maintained a shipping mentality, with a slight decline in prices. Some refineries have low inventory levels, and their prices remain stable. During the day, downstream and traders actively purchased, with high volume transactions and prices ranging from 6580 to 6650 yuan/ton.

In terms of downstream, the three major downstream markets of styrene have seen varying fluctuations. At the beginning of this week, the average price of PS was 9566.67 yuan/ton, which was stable and a decrease of 10.43% compared to the same period last year. The trading atmosphere of PS is sluggish, and it is expected that in the short term, the domestic PS (polystyrene) price may mainly fluctuate and weaken.

The EPS market is stable this week, and according to the analysis system of the commodity market of the Business Society, the average price of ordinary materials is 9537.50 yuan/ton. The EPS market lacks positive support, and it is expected that the domestic EPS market may be dominated by a narrow and weak trend.

Recently, the domestic ABS market has declined, and the high load situation in the ABS industry has continued. Enterprises are resuming work and maintenance, and the overall load is showing an increasing pattern. In the middle of the month, China’s ABS operating rate is close to 90%, and the overall narrow adjustment has been around 88% recently. The on-site spot supply continues to be abundant, competition intensifies, and supply side pressure is high. The inventory of domestic enterprises has increased, while the mid stream inventory has remained stagnant at a high level. Merchants are under pressure, and their prices have declined.

The price of crude oil fell on the night market, with poor cost support, but downstream demand has improved. In June, there was an increase in styrene plant maintenance, and it is expected that the short-term styrene market will fluctuate and rise mainly.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the average factory price of ammonium sulfate in China was 880 yuan/ton on May 8th, and 850 yuan/ton on May 12th. This week, the price of ammonium sulfate decreased by 3.41%.

2、 Market analysis

The market price of ammonium sulfate fell this week. The international market for ammonium sulfate is still weak and there is currently no significant improvement. The domestic market trend is not good, and downstream purchases are made on demand, often at low prices. This week, the operating rate of coking grade ammonium sulfate enterprises remained stable, with poor market conditions and a decrease in bidding prices. The operating rate of domestic ammonium sulfate enterprises has decreased, the market supply is tight, and prices are firm. As of May 12th, the mainstream factory quotation for coking grade ammonium sulfate in Shandong is around 800 yuan/ton. The mainstream factory quotation for domestic ammonium sulfate in Shandong is around 850-890 yuan/ton.

This week, the downstream compound fertilizer market was reorganized and operated, with significant stability and minor fluctuations in the market. At present, terminal demand is gradually following up and corn fertilizer is being shipped in a centralized manner. However, the market for composite fertilizer raw materials has weakened, with insufficient cost support and unstable market mentality.

3、 Future Market Forecast

According to ammonium sulfate analysts from Business Society, the domestic ammonium sulfate market has been fluctuating and weakening recently, while foreign demand remains weak. Downstream low-priced procurement is the main focus, and market transactions are sluggish. It is expected that the ammonium sulfate market will be weak and volatile in the short term.