According to the data monitored by the business club, as of July 17, the average price of domestic industrial grade high-quality cyclohexane was 9833.33 yuan / ton this week. The price of cyclohexane this week was mainly stable. At present, the operating rate is normal, the logistics is smooth, the transaction atmosphere is general, the negotiation atmosphere is stable, the quotation range of mainstream manufacturers is about 9100 yuan / ton, the purchasing atmosphere is general, the maintenance of stable operation is main, the focus of negotiation is stable, and the price fluctuation range this week is small.

The average price of domestic industrial grade superior cyclohexane in Japan is 9833.33 yuan / ton, and the quotation range of mainstream manufacturers remains about 9200 yuan / ton. The overall market supply and demand of cyclohexane is balanced, and the downstream just needs to purchase. The focus of negotiation is stable, and the supply side is normal. The latest prices of enterprises: 8400 yuan / ton for Jinan Mingyu Chemical Co., Ltd., 9800 yuan / ton for Liaocheng yuanze chemical products Co., Ltd., 9800 yuan / ton for Zhejiang jinmaotong Supply Chain Management Co., Ltd, Jinan Qichen Chemical Co., Ltd. is 9800 yuan / ton, and Zhejiang jinmaotong Supply Chain Management Co., Ltd. is 9800 yuan / ton.

Upstream pure benzene: mainly stable operation. On July 12, Sinopec North China: Qilu Petrochemical quoted 9150 yuan / ton, Shijiazhuang refining and chemical quoted 9150 yuan / ton, and Tianjin Petrochemical quoted 9300 yuan / ton; East China: Yangzi Petrochemical offers 9300 yuan / ton; South China: Hainan refining and Chemical Co., Ltd. offers 9300 yuan / ton; Central China: the quotation of Wuhan ethylene is 9300 yuan / ton; Others: Dongming Petrochemical quote 9100 yuan / ton, Jingbo Petrochemical quote 9000 yuan / ton, HSBC Petrochemical quote 9200 yuan / ton, Weilian chemical quote 9003 yuan / ton, Xinhai Petrochemical quote 9100 yuan / ton.

Chemical industry index: on July 14, the chemical industry index was 1050 points, down 21 points from yesterday, down 25.00% from the highest point of 1400 points in the cycle (2021-10-23), and up 75.59% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8, 2020. (Note: the period refers to 2011-12-01 to now)

According to the cyclohexane analyst of business agency, it is expected that the cyclohexane market will operate smoothly in the short term. (if you want to get more commodity information and master commodity prices, you are welcome to subscribe to the commodities of the business club through the official account of the business club. The market is an opportunity).

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the price of thermal coal is deadlocked this week. On July 17, the energy index was 1145 points, unchanged from yesterday, down 26.65% from the highest point 1561 points in the cycle (2021-10-21), and up 124.07% from the lowest point 511 points on March 1, 2016. (Note: the period refers to 2011-12-01 to now)

This week, the price of thermal coal is in a stalemate. The normal production and sales of coal mines in the main producing areas are dominated by state-owned large mines, and the marketable resources of coal are limited. The overall production and sales of mining areas are stable; In the downstream port market, the recent transaction is still relatively deadlocked, the power plant inventory is still high, the market purchase willingness is insufficient, and the coal price is more cautious. Under the shipping cost, the traders’ quotation is relatively strong, and the transaction is relatively deadlocked.

The data released by the National Bureau of statistics on July 14 showed that the national coal prices rose and fell in the first ten days of July. The specific price changes of each coal are as follows: the price of anthracite (washing medium block, volatile ≤ 8%) is 1857.5 yuan / ton, down 132.5 yuan / ton, or 6.7% from the previous period. The price of ordinary blended coal (blended coal of Shanxi pulverized coal and lump coal, with a calorific value of 4500 kcal) was 954.3 yuan / ton, an increase of 12.9 yuan / ton or 1.4% over the previous period. The price of Shanxi Dahuang (mixed coal with good quality and calorific value of 5000 kcal) was 1067.1 yuan / ton, an increase of 5.7 yuan / ton or 0.5% over the previous period. The price of Shanxi Youhun (high-quality blended coal with a calorific value of 5500 kcal) was 1247.1 yuan / ton, an increase of 5.7 yuan / ton or 0.5% over the previous period. The price of Datong blended coal (Datong blended coal with a calorific value of 5800 kcal) was 1337.1 yuan / ton, an increase of 5.7 yuan / ton or 0.4% over the previous period.

According to the analysts of business society, in terms of origin, the output of coal in the main origin remains stable, the downstream market is deadlocked, and the enthusiasm for procurement is not high. It is still mainly to supplement Changxie coal, and affected by the policy, the coal prices in ports and origin return to a reasonable space. It is comprehensively expected that the thermal coal will be vibrated, sorted out and operated, depending on the downstream market demand.

According to the monitoring of the business agency, the trend of the domestic rare earth market price index fell this week, and the domestic rare earth industry continued to decline. On July 17, the rare earth index was 787 points, unchanged from yesterday, down 21.85% from the highest point of 1007 points in the cycle (2022-02-24), and up 190.41% from the lowest point of 271 points on September 13, 2015. (Note: the period refers to 2011-12-01 to now).

This week, the price of products in the domestic light rare earth market continued to fall, and the trend of praseodymium and neodymium series, the mainstream in the rare earth market, fell. In terms of products:

As can be seen from the product price trend chart, the domestic prices of neodymium metal, praseodymium metal, neodymium oxide, praseodymium oxide, praseodymium neodymium alloy and praseodymium neodymium oxide continued to fall. As of the 18th, the price of neodymium oxide in domestic rare earth was 890000 yuan / ton, and the price fell by 5.57% this week; The price of neodymium was 1.12 million yuan / ton, with a decrease of 4.27%; The price of praseodymium oxide was 885000 yuan / ton, with a decrease of 6.60%; The price of praseodymium neodymium oxide was 831500 yuan / ton, down 6.31% this week; The price of praseodymium neodymium alloy was 1.02 million yuan / ton, down 6.85%; The price of praseodymium metal was 1.185 million yuan / ton, and the price trend fell by 3.66%. The domestic rare earth market continued to decline this week.

The domestic rare earth market price has continued to decline, the recent downstream procurement is not active, and the number of new orders is relatively small. This week, the market trend of praseodymium and neodymium products fell, the wait-and-see mood of magnetic material enterprises deepened, and the purchase intention was weak. Due to the normal supply of mainstream products such as praseodymium and neodymium oxide in some large groups, some small waste recycling enterprises are affected by the shortage of waste supply, and the raw material inventory is insufficient to reduce production. Magnetic material enterprises are mostly distributed in Zhejiang. Affected by the epidemic in the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta, the demand for orders of downstream new energy vehicles, electric two wheeled vehicles and other vehicles has shrunk, the demand for spot procurement is weak, and the on-site prices have fallen slightly. The downstream demand side has not been significantly improved, the procurement demand is limited, the market negotiation atmosphere is general, and the market price of light rare earth praseodymium and neodymium is mainly declining. This week, the price of praseodymium and neodymium products continued to fall. Separation enterprises took the initiative to reduce their offers, and purchased cautiously. Traders offered actively, and some merchants intended to ship at a profit. The purchase intention of metal plants is not high, and the mentality is waiting for the future, and the market trend of light rare earth is declining.

The national environmental protection supervision is still continuing. Rare earth is purchased on demand. At present, the inventory of neodymium oxide praseodymium has not changed much. Affected by the sentiment of buying up or not, the price trend on the floor has declined slightly. According to statistics, the demand for new energy vehicles has increased. The data released by the China Association of automobile manufacturers shows that in June 2022, China’s automobile production and sales reached 2.499 million and 2.522 million respectively, with a month on month increase of 29.7% and 34.4% respectively, and a year-on-year increase of 28.2% and 23.8% respectively. Automobile production and sales have increased significantly. Recently, the demand in the field of new energy is general, the domestic light rare earth market has continued to decline, and the domestic heavy rare earth market price has declined slightly.

It can be seen from the trend chart that the price of dysprosium Series in China fell. As of the 18th, the price of dysprosium oxide was 2.35 million yuan / ton, and the price fell by 2.69% this week; Dysprosium ferroalloy price was 2.33 million yuan / ton, and the price trend fell by 3.52%; The price of dysprosium metal was 3.13 million yuan / ton, down 1.57% this week; The price trend of domestic terbium is mainly declining. The price of domestic terbium oxide is 13.55 million yuan / ton, and the price of metal terbium is 17.45 million yuan / ton. The price of heavy rare earths fell slightly, and the leading magnetic material factory purchased on demand, which made the domestic heavy rare earth market fall slightly. The raw material inventory of separation enterprises in the areas where light rare earth mines are used in Sichuan and other places decreased. The reduction of this part of supply had little impact on the operating rate of separation plants in the areas where light rare earth mines are used. However, recently, with the epidemic being controlled, production enterprises have started gradually, the supply side has eased, and the rare earth market atmosphere continues to be flat, Downstream magnetic material enterprises just need to follow up as planned, and their mood is more cautious. However, Myanmar’s exports are limited, and the global supply of rare earth is relatively concentrated. Myanmar is one of the production areas next to China and the United States. Myanmar has a great impact on products in the domestic heavy rare earth market, and the price of heavy rare earth in the market fell slightly.

In addition, the state policy supports the rare earth market. The first batch of Rare Earth total amount control indicators in 2022 are in line with expectations, and the industry pattern continues to be optimized. The Ministry of industry and information technology and the Ministry of natural resources issued the first batch of Rare Earth total amount control indicators in 2022, of which the mining indicators and smelting separation indicators are 100800 tons and 97200 tons respectively. The increase of the index is in line with expectations, and the country is still relatively restrained in releasing the rare earth supply index. In 2022, the first batch of ore indicators / smelting separation indicators were all +20% year-on-year, with a growth rate lower than that of the first batch in 2021 (year-on-year +27.3%/27.6%), and it is expected that the overall supply and demand of rare earth will remain tight in 22 years. The index increment is still concentrated on light rare earth. Among the mining indicators in 2022, rock type rare earths (mainly light rare earths) were 89310 tons, up +23.2% year-on-year, and ionic rare earths were 11490 tons, flat year-on-year. It is expected that the increase concentrated on light rare earths will be a long-term trend, and the domestic rare earth market will still be supported in the long run.

The sustainable development of new energy vehicles, wind power and variable frequency air conditioning in the downstream of rare earth, coupled with the recent resumption of production of terminal factories, the orders of upstream magnetic material enterprises have not improved. Even if the government has issued policies such as halving the purchase tax, the consumption of terminal new energy vehicles will be boosted in the later stage. Business community analyst Chen Ling predicts that the short-term downstream procurement is not active, and the domestic rare earth market price may continue to decline slightly.

1、 Market trend analysis of upstream acetic acid

This week (7.11-15), the domestic acetic acid market continued to decline. According to the monitoring of business agency, acetic acid fell by 2.91% this week, slowing down slightly. At present, the inventory pressure of acetic acid manufacturers is relieved compared with that at the beginning of the month. Due to the continuous decline of prices, the profits of manufacturers have fallen sharply, approaching the cost line, and the operating rate of enterprises has also decreased. Most manufacturers mainly reduce the load and start up, Jiangsu Thorpe reduces the load and operates, Shanghai Huayi plant is still under maintenance, and the load of other sets of plants has also decreased. However, due to the sufficient supply of acetic acid, enterprises have accumulated a large amount of inventory in the early stage, so the market supply and demand structure still remains in excess of demand, which will continue to suppress the rebound of acetic acid price, which is about 3600-3750 yuan / ton at the weekend.

2、 Market trend analysis of ethyl acetate

This week (7.11-15), domestic ethyl acetate mainly stopped falling and stabilized. According to the statistics of business agency, the decline this week was 0.66%. At present, ethyl acetate is still affected by the negative cost caused by the decline of raw acetic acid. However, the transaction of Shandong big factory is in good condition, and the psychology of low price bottom hunting in the downstream leads to a slight premium. Therefore, the price of ethyl acetate remained rigid this week, but from the terminal point of view, the order in July was still insufficient, and the demand was relatively weak, which was still an important factor for the rebound of ethyl acetate. As of Friday, the price of ethyl acetate was in the range of 7500-7700 yuan / ton.

3、 Market trend analysis of butyl acetate

This week (7.11-15), the domestic butyl acetate continued to be weak, and the price continued to decline this week. According to the monitoring of business community, the weekly decline of butyl acetate was 3.02%. On the one hand, the cost is bad, and the dual raw materials are lower. The operating rate of butyl ester remains low, but under the influence of weak demand, the market transaction is not good. The market supply remains within a reasonable range. Due to the long-term inactivity of butyl ester, the operating rate of the unit is low. There is not much pressure on supply. Butyl acetate remained weak due to the relatively weak downstream demand. In addition, the price of raw material n-butanol was still low. According to monitoring, n-butanol fell by 2.56% this week. Superimposed on the price advantages of alternative products and other factors, the domestic mainstream quotation of butyl acetate at the weekend was 8900-9200 yuan / ton.

4、 Analysis of acetic acid industry chain

From the comparison chart of the rise and fall of the acetic acid industry chain, it can be seen that since July, the acetic acid industry chain has been relatively weak as a whole, and the decline of acetic acid is still obvious, which has a great impact on the whole industry chain. The downstream ethyl acetate, butyl acetate, acetic anhydride and other products have declined to varying degrees. The transmission effect of the industry chain, the resonance of the market under the order, is strong.

5、 Outlook of acetic acid industry chain

Aftermarket forecast: in the short term, the acetic acid industry chain is still weak. While the upstream costs are bad, it also eases the cost pressure on the downstream. Recently, some acetic acid manufacturers have maintenance plans, the supply pressure may be relieved in the later stage, and the market may stop or slow down. The cost of downstream ethyl acetate and butyl ester may be supported in the later stage. However, considering that the terminal demand is still relatively low and the orders in July are insufficient, it is expected that ethyl acetate may remain weak, and butyl may gradually stop falling under the influence of the lower operating rate.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the price of baking soda was consolidated and operated this week. The average market price at the beginning of the week was 2783.33 yuan / ton, and the average market price at the weekend was 2766.67 yuan / ton. The price fell by 0.6%, up 61.16% year-on-year. On July 10, the baking soda commodity index was 183.63, unchanged from yesterday, down 22.14% from the highest point 235.84 in the cycle (2021-11-10), and up 108.03% from the lowest point 88.27 on December 22, 2020. (Note: the period refers to 2020-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

According to the business news agency, the price of baking soda has been adjusted and operated, and the downstream market has been in general demand recently. At present, the price of baking soda in Henan is about 2750-3000 yuan / ton. Raw materials: soda ash prices are weak this week. The mainstream market price of light soda ash in East China is about 2850-3100 yuan / ton. The price of soda ash in North China is temporarily stable, and the current market price of light soda ash is about 2850-3100 yuan / ton. Data show that as of June 30, 2022, the inventory of Chinese soda ash enterprises was 342200 tons, a month on month decrease of 55400 tons, a decrease of 13.93%.

Demand: downstream, the demand for baking soda in medicine, textiles and food is acceptable. In terms of raw materials, according to the monitoring data of the business community, the price of soda ash was weak this week. The average market price of light soda ash was 2920 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 2910 yuan / ton at the end of the week. The price fell by 0.34%, up 53% over the same period last year. In the downstream, the demand for baking soda from medicine, textile and food is acceptable in the near future. In a comprehensive view, the price of baking soda may maintain the consolidation operation in the short term, depending on the downstream market demand.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the price of caustic soda was consolidated and operated. The average market price in Shandong at the beginning of the week was about 1232 yuan / ton, and the average market price in Shandong at the weekend was 1198 yuan / ton. The price was reduced by 2.76%, and the price increased by 124.98% over the same period last year. On July 10, the caustic soda commodity index was 176.12, unchanged from yesterday, down 33.66% from the highest point of 265.47 in the cycle (2021-10-27), and up 170.50% from the lowest point of 65.11 on October 9, 2020. (Note: the period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

According to the survey data of the business community, the domestic caustic soda price was weak this week. At present, the average market price in Shandong is about 1100-1230 yuan / ton. The mainstream ex factory quotation of 32% liquid caustic soda in Hebei is about 1150-1350 yuan / ton. At present, the operating load of enterprises is high, the inventory of enterprises is high, and the downstream enterprises are mainly wait-and-see. Enterprises generally ship goods, with heavy on-site wait-and-see mood, and the downstream receiving capacity is limited. The manufacturer gives priority to flexible quotation.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, in the 27th week of 2022 (7.4-7.8), there was a total of 1 commodity rising, 3 commodities falling and 1 commodity rising or falling to zero in the price rise and fall list of the chlor alkali industry. The main commodities rising are: calcium carbide (1.32%); The main commodities that fell were PVC (-5.42%), caustic soda (-0.65%), and light soda (-0.34%). The average rise and fall this week was -1.02%.

Business analysts believe that recently, the price of caustic soda is weak, and the wait-and-see attitude of downstream alumina is obvious. It is mainly purchased on demand, the overall demand is limited, and the market atmosphere is weak. It is comprehensively expected that the subsequent weak market operation of caustic soda is mainly based on the downstream market demand.

From July 1 to July 8, 2022, the ex factory price of hydrogenated benzene in North China fluctuated downward, at 9550 yuan / ton last weekend and 9350 yuan / ton this weekend, down 2.09% weekly.

Market price of domestic main hydrogenated benzene this week (unit: yuan / ton)

Market, Price on July 1, Price on July 8, Up and down

East China, 9450～9500., 9100～9150.,- three hundred and fifty

Shandong region, 9200～9300., 8900～9000.,- three hundred

In terms of crude oil, the market’s concern about the global economic recession increased, leading to a sharp fall in international oil prices, and WTI oil prices fell below $100 a barrel. However, the inventory of refined oil products in the United States fell, and the increase in demand led to a rebound in oil prices. As of July 8, Brent’s price fell by $4.61 per barrel, or 4.13%, this week compared with last week; WTI fell $3.64 / barrel, or 3.36%.

On July 8, international crude oil futures continued to rise. The settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $104.79 / barrel, up $2.06 or 2.0%; The settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was $107.02 / barrel, up $2.37 or 2.3%. Previously, the oil price fell due to the risk of economic recession, and the oil price rebounded for two consecutive days. The main reason is that although the risk of global economic recession is still there, the market panic has weakened, and the focus has returned to the fundamentals of supply shortage.

Summary of Sinopec pure benzene price adjustment (unit: yuan / ton)

Date, Adjusted price, Adjustment amount

June 10, 10000.,+300

June 22, 9800.,-200

June 27, 9600.,-200

July 6, 9300.,-300

The ex factory price of Sinopec pure benzene was reduced by 300 yuan / ton on July 6, 2022, and 9300 yuan / ton was implemented.

Other enterprises: Dongming Petrochemical quote 9200 yuan / ton, Jingbo Petrochemical quote 9050 yuan / ton, HSBC Petrochemical quote 9200 yuan / ton, Weilian chemical quote 9003 yuan / ton, Xinhai Petrochemical quote 9100 yuan / ton.

This week, the hydrogenation benzene market as a whole fluctuated downward. Fundamentals crude oil prices fell sharply last week, Brent fell 4.13%, WTI fell $3.64 / barrel, down 3.36%. The outer disk of pure benzene fell broadly, and the import price in East China fell by 7.19%. Dragged down by fundamentals, the price of pure benzene in Sinopec fell by 300 yuan / ton to 9300 yuan / ton this week (the price of pure benzene in Hebei and Shandong fell to 9150 yuan / ton). This week, the hydrogenated benzene market mainly followed the trend of pure benzene downward. In the future, the downstream styrene has certain support, and the demand for pure benzene is well supported. It is expected that the short-term pure benzene will be weak and volatile. Continue to pay attention to the impact of crude oil and external market price trends, pure benzene port inventory, pure benzene and downstream device dynamics on prices.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business agency, the average market price of domestic liquid caprolactam was 13700 yuan / ton on July 4 and 13600 yuan / ton on July 11. The price of caprolactam fell 0.73% this week.

2、 Market analysis

The raw material pure benzene market fell this week, and the cost support of caprolactam weakened. Most caprolactam manufacturers maintain their devices and operate at low load. The demand side purchases cautiously, and there is a strong bearish mentality on the floor. As of July 11, the price of Sinopec caprolactam liquid was 15600 yuan / ton, and it was accepted and withdrawn within six months. Baling Hengyi caprolactam liquid price is 14800 yuan / ton, the manufacturer’s production capacity is 450000 tons / year, and it will be accepted and picked up within 6 months. The price of Baling Petrochemical caprolactam liquid is 14800 yuan / ton, and the manufacturer’s capacity is 300000 tons / year. It will be accepted and picked up within 6 months. Shandong Hualu Hengsheng caprolactam apron price is 14300 yuan / ton, which is accepted and sent to East China, and the manufacturer’s device capacity is 300000 tons / year. Shandong Luxi Chemical caprolactam liquid price is 13250 yuan / ton, and the manufacturer’s capacity is 300000 tons.

The price of raw material pure benzene continued to weaken this week. Affected by the sharp decline in crude oil during the week, bulk commodities weakened collectively; Pure benzene in Asia fell continuously, with bad external news; Coupled with general domestic buying, the price of pure benzene fell. This week, Sinopec cut the price of pure benzene by 300 yuan / ton to 9300 yuan / ton. The price of pure benzene in Hebei and Shandong was reduced to 9150 yuan / ton.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

The caprolactam analyst of the business society believes that the cost of caprolactam has been reduced at present, and the raw material support is weak. Weak follow-up of downstream demand and poor trading volume. In the case of many negative factors, it is expected that the caprolactam market will continue to decline in the short term.

From July 1 to July 8, 2022, the market price of antimony ingots in East China rose. The price was 83250 yuan / ton last weekend and 83250 yuan / ton this weekend, unchanged.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices uses the concept of K-line of price trend to reflect the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments according to the changes of the K-bar chart. Red means: rising; Green means: down; The height of K column indicates the range of rise and fall. It can be seen from the above figure that the recent upward trend of the antimony ingot Market around the Spring Festival, entered a stable period after the middle of March, entered a downward channel in the middle of April, slowed down at the end of April, stabilized in May, and entered an upward channel in June.

Price of antimony, a strategic small metal in Europe this week (unit: USD / ton)

varieties., July 1, July 8, Up and down

European small metal antimony, 14300.,14100.,- two hundred

This week, the price of antimony, a strategic small metal in Europe, rose to $14100 / ton on July 8. This week, the price decreased slightly by $200 / ton, and the overall market trading improved.

After the price of antimony ingots rose this week, it temporarily operated stably. After entering June, the price rose for four consecutive weeks. This week’s rise was postponed, the overall market trend was stable, and the downstream sales were OK. Antimony ingots maintained a rigid demand for procurement. At present, antimony ingot manufacturers have a strong attitude of price support. The supply of antimony ingots has been constrained by the tight supply at the mine end, and the supply has been tight, which also boosted the mentality of smelters. At present, antimony ingot enterprises have strong price support psychology, but the downstream purchase is mainly on demand, and the supply-demand game is expected to be mainly stable in the future.

Price trend of antimony oxide this week (unit: yuan / ton)

varieties., July 1, July 8, Up and down

99.5% antimony trioxide, 71500.,71500., 0

99.8% antimony trioxide, 73500.,73500., 0

This week, the domestic antimony oxide market price continued to pick up. Recently, antimony oxide inventory has declined to a certain extent, with good sales. Enterprises have a certain demand for antimony ingots.

In June, the price of domestic liquid ammonia fell by 9.74% on the whole. Prices in Shandong, Shanxi, Hebei, Henan and Hubei all fell to varying degrees, with a decline range of more than 500 yuan / ton. The market supply has changed, and the ammonia supply has increased. However, the demand for fertilizer in the downstream is weak, and the resistance to high prices has further suppressed some rigid demand. Lower downstream prices, terminal prices have also declined. According to the monitoring of business agency, as of June 30, the mainstream quotation range of liquid ammonia in Shandong is 4500-4750 yuan / ton.

Supply side

On the supply side, this month, the overall ammonia release in many places in China generally increased compared with last month, and the overall supply pressure increased. The price of urea retreated, and the manufacturer’s profit was poor, resulting in the reduction of the unit’s conversion to urea. Recently, ammonia is still recovering. Therefore, the overall supply of liquid ammonia surged, and the short-term surge in supply led to some excess.

Cost side

The price of the upstream coal market retreated, with a decline of 0.87% this month. The price gradually moved higher and began to squeeze the downstream profits. At the same time, the national regulation of coal prices is still within a reasonable range, and the downstream cost pressure is not large. At present, the profits of downstream methanol and liquid ammonia manufacturers are still within a reasonable range. Natural gas prices also fell this month, easing the cost pressure of gas head enterprises. According to the monitoring of business agency, the increase of liquefied natural gas this month was 11.01%%.

Demand side

From the terminal point of view, the downstream demand for liquid ammonia is rigid and stable, with no increment. The mainstream market price of urea in China rose first and then fell this month. On the whole, according to the monitoring of business society, the monthly decline of urea was 4.62%. The urea price of rising chemical at the end of the month was 3070 yuan / ton, which was 130 yuan / ton lower than that at the beginning of the month; The urea price of Hualu Hengsheng at the end of the month was 3065 yuan / ton, which was 75 yuan / ton lower than that at the beginning of the month; At the end of the month, the price of urea in Xiangcheng San’an was 3300 yuan / ton, which was temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the month. From the perspective of demand: the agricultural demand is general, and the industrial demand is mainly rigid. The agricultural demand in some areas is supplemented appropriately. The enterprises of compound fertilizer and rubber plate factories started work in general, and just needed to purchase. The price of melamine fell slightly, and their enthusiasm for urea procurement weakened. In terms of supply, some manufacturers plan to overhaul recently, and the daily output of urea has decreased slightly, resulting in a relatively insufficient supply.

From the above figure, the price comparison chart of urea and liquid ammonia shows that the trend of liquid ammonia and urea is basically the same. Recently, the price of liquid ammonia has fallen significantly, with a deeper decline than that of urea, and the price difference between the two has widened. But it is still at a reasonable level.

From the above figure, the profit of liquid ammonia industrial chain is still in a reasonable range. The price of natural gas in the upstream of the gas head has been declining, but the coal price has fallen under control. Affected by policies, the price is still under control, which is conducive to relieving the downstream cost pressure. Due to the weakening of seasonal demand, the middle and lower reaches, such as urea, fell, and the increase of compound fertilizers ammonium chloride and ammonium nitrate was limited, mostly controlled within 5%. In the later stage, the enterprise profits may meet the test, and the profits of liquid ammonia, urea and compound fertilizers may decline compared with the previous stage.

Aftermarket forecast

Business community believes that at present, the supply and demand environment of the domestic liquid ammonia market remains weak, and the supply pressure is expected to increase in the later stage. The previously overhauled devices may gradually resume operation in the later stage. In addition, the weakening of agricultural demand also brings bad news. Therefore, the price of liquid ammonia is still difficult to improve much in the short term.