1、 Market trend analysis of upstream acetic acid

This week (7.11-15), the domestic acetic acid market continued to decline. According to the monitoring of business agency, acetic acid fell by 2.91% this week, slowing down slightly. At present, the inventory pressure of acetic acid manufacturers is relieved compared with that at the beginning of the month. Due to the continuous decline of prices, the profits of manufacturers have fallen sharply, approaching the cost line, and the operating rate of enterprises has also decreased. Most manufacturers mainly reduce the load and start up, Jiangsu Thorpe reduces the load and operates, Shanghai Huayi plant is still under maintenance, and the load of other sets of plants has also decreased. However, due to the sufficient supply of acetic acid, enterprises have accumulated a large amount of inventory in the early stage, so the market supply and demand structure still remains in excess of demand, which will continue to suppress the rebound of acetic acid price, which is about 3600-3750 yuan / ton at the weekend.

2、 Market trend analysis of ethyl acetate

This week (7.11-15), domestic ethyl acetate mainly stopped falling and stabilized. According to the statistics of business agency, the decline this week was 0.66%. At present, ethyl acetate is still affected by the negative cost caused by the decline of raw acetic acid. However, the transaction of Shandong big factory is in good condition, and the psychology of low price bottom hunting in the downstream leads to a slight premium. Therefore, the price of ethyl acetate remained rigid this week, but from the terminal point of view, the order in July was still insufficient, and the demand was relatively weak, which was still an important factor for the rebound of ethyl acetate. As of Friday, the price of ethyl acetate was in the range of 7500-7700 yuan / ton.

3、 Market trend analysis of butyl acetate

This week (7.11-15), the domestic butyl acetate continued to be weak, and the price continued to decline this week. According to the monitoring of business community, the weekly decline of butyl acetate was 3.02%. On the one hand, the cost is bad, and the dual raw materials are lower. The operating rate of butyl ester remains low, but under the influence of weak demand, the market transaction is not good. The market supply remains within a reasonable range. Due to the long-term inactivity of butyl ester, the operating rate of the unit is low. There is not much pressure on supply. Butyl acetate remained weak due to the relatively weak downstream demand. In addition, the price of raw material n-butanol was still low. According to monitoring, n-butanol fell by 2.56% this week. Superimposed on the price advantages of alternative products and other factors, the domestic mainstream quotation of butyl acetate at the weekend was 8900-9200 yuan / ton.

4、 Analysis of acetic acid industry chain

From the comparison chart of the rise and fall of the acetic acid industry chain, it can be seen that since July, the acetic acid industry chain has been relatively weak as a whole, and the decline of acetic acid is still obvious, which has a great impact on the whole industry chain. The downstream ethyl acetate, butyl acetate, acetic anhydride and other products have declined to varying degrees. The transmission effect of the industry chain, the resonance of the market under the order, is strong.

5、 Outlook of acetic acid industry chain

Aftermarket forecast: in the short term, the acetic acid industry chain is still weak. While the upstream costs are bad, it also eases the cost pressure on the downstream. Recently, some acetic acid manufacturers have maintenance plans, the supply pressure may be relieved in the later stage, and the market may stop or slow down. The cost of downstream ethyl acetate and butyl ester may be supported in the later stage. However, considering that the terminal demand is still relatively low and the orders in July are insufficient, it is expected that ethyl acetate may remain weak, and butyl may gradually stop falling under the influence of the lower operating rate.