1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the PVC spot market continued to decline this week (7.15-19). As of Friday, the average price of PVC in China was 5435 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 0.91% during the week.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the PVC spot market has been operating weakly, with prices still in a downward trend. With the weakening of the futures market, the spot PVC market has generally followed suit, and coupled with supply and demand pressures, the spot market has weakened to some extent. Downstream procurement is mainly based on spot prices, with low enthusiasm for inquiry based procurement and a sluggish market atmosphere. The hanging order price is relatively low. Overall, it is still mainly driven by basic needs, and the trading atmosphere is average. As of now, the quotation range for PVC SG5 electrical aggregate in China is mostly around 5400-5650 yuan/ton.

In terms of calcium carbide, as we enter July, the domestic price of calcium carbide continues to decline. According to data monitored by Business Society, the price of calcium carbide has dropped by 1.34% this week and as much as 5.33% within the month. Overall, the trading sentiment in the calcium carbide market was pessimistic during the week, and the situation of traders receiving goods was sluggish compared to before.

3、 Future forecast

The PVC analyst from Shengyi Society believes that PVC supply is abundant in the short term, but there is still supply and demand pressure. On the cost side, the upstream price of calcium carbide has decreased, and the cost support is average. From the perspective of the futures market, the PVC futures market has shown weak performance in the later stage, which has affected the confidence of the spot market, and the spot market is generally bearish. It is expected that the PVC spot market will continue to fluctuate and consolidate within a certain range in the short term, and we will closely monitor changes in the news.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic price of sodium metabisulfite has been weak this week. The average price of industrial grade sodium metabisulfite at the beginning of the week was 2150 yuan/ton, and the average price over the weekend was 2146 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.15% during the week.

This week, the domestic industrial grade sodium metabisulfite market price range is 2100-2200 yuan/ton, with most prices concentrated around 2100 yuan/ton. The inventory of the enterprise is in the middle, and the overall supply of sodium metabisulfite market is sufficient. The market is mainly driven by orders. (The above prices refer to the quotes provided by mainstream domestic enterprises, and some unreported enterprises are temporarily not within their scope. The prices are for reference only and are not related to the final pricing of the manufacturers. For details, please contact each manufacturer for consultation.).

Future forecast

Business analysts believe that market transactions are weak, and the domestic market price of sodium metabisulfite may mainly fluctuate in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the mainstream market price of domestic polyester short fibers increased in June. As of June 28th, the average price of 1.4D * 38mm in mainstream short fiber factories was 7901 yuan/ton, 2.86% higher than the beginning of the month.

In the early stage, the short fiber maintenance device increased its load, and after the start of operation, it maintained a high level of operation, resulting in narrow fluctuations in prices. The trend started to rise significantly in the latter half of the month, mainly due to the conversion of conventional short fibers from two major factories, which has led to a tight circulation of mainstream specification products in the market. In addition, short fiber factories raised prices uniformly at the end of the month under the background of guaranteed processing fees, providing effective support for prices. With high raw material prices, downstream purchasing enthusiasm has decreased, and the demand side is relatively weak.

The crude oil market is boosted by the peak summer demand in the United States, and gasoline consumption is gradually increasing. Coupled with OPEC and the probability of extending production cuts to the third quarter, oil prices will receive significant support, and prices will operate at a high and strong level. The tense geopolitical situation has intensified supply concerns, and crude oil has gained support. As of June 27th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $81.74 per barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $85.26 per barrel. Under the drive of crude oil, the cost driving force for PX still exists. An 800000 ton facility in Fuhai, China, will achieve output, further improving overall supply capacity. There are expectations of some changes in the demand side PTA facilities, and PX will still be in the destocking stage in the short term.

In June, domestic PTA prices fluctuated and adjusted with changes in costs and supply, and the spot market showed a W-shaped trend. As of June 28th, the average PTA market price in East China was 6025 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.25% compared to the beginning of the month. In the future, on the supply side, a set of 2.5 million ton PTA units in Northeast China is planned to be shut down for maintenance on June 29th. In addition, attention still needs to be paid to the restart of 2 million ton PTA units in South China and 1.2 million ton PTA units in Northwest China. It is expected that the overall PTA supply will be abundant in July, and the domestic PTA production will start at a high level, which may enter the stage of accumulating inventory.

As the cost of raw materials continues to rise, downstream enterprises are increasingly resistant to high prices and adopt a cautious wait-and-see attitude, choosing to focus on digestion and stocking. The production of the yarn factory has slightly decreased, and the transaction atmosphere has been lackluster. Looking ahead to July, the textile market is still in the traditional off-season, with poor downstream demand expectations. Weaving production may continue to decline, and the pressure on polyester short fiber factories to ship may increase.

Overall, analysts from Business Society believe that polyester short fiber manufacturers have plans to reduce production while maintaining processing costs. Crude oil prices may fluctuate at high levels, but PTA is expected to be weak. At the same time, downstream textile companies are experiencing losses and poor shipments, and their acceptance of high priced raw materials is low, or they may maintain sporadic essential procurement. At present, although short fiber production factories are selling at high prices, the mentality of traders has shown differentiation, and the focus of transactions has shifted downwards. It is expected that the price of polyester short fibers may decline narrowly.

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic market for maleic anhydride has continued to rise recently. As of June 24th, the average market price of n-butane oxidation method maleic anhydride remained at 7210 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.10% compared to June 17th at 7290 yuan/ton.

In terms of supply: Wanhua has resumed production recently and has plans to sell out. Recently, the prices of major factories have continued to decline, and market prices have continued to fall. As of June 24th, the ex factory price of solid anhydride in Shandong region is around 6800 yuan/ton, and the ex factory price of liquid anhydride is around 6100 yuan/ton.

Upstream: The international crude oil market has been on the rise recently, while the n-butane market has fallen overall. As of June 24th, the price in Shandong is around 5250 yuan/ton.

Downstream: Currently, raw material prices have fallen, and prices of the main unsaturated resin factories have also fallen. Recently, unsaturated resin has entered the off-season, with limited downstream production and limited support for unsaturated resin.

Business Society’s maleic anhydride product analyst believes that the prices of the main maleic anhydride factories have continued to decline recently, coupled with the current resumption of production by Wanhua, there are plans to sell out in the near future; Downstream unsaturated resins have entered the off-season, with limited procurement of maleic anhydride. It is expected that the maleic anhydride market will mainly consolidate at a low level in the near future.

1、 Price trend

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the price of bromine remained stable with an increase this week. The average market price at the beginning of the week was 22300 yuan/ton, and the average market price over the weekend was 22800 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 2.24%, an increase of 15.15% compared to the same period last year. On June 6th, the bromine commodity index was 80.00, an increase of 0.35 points from yesterday, a decrease of 67.37% from the highest point of 245.18 points in the cycle (2021-10-27), and an increase of 35.78% from the lowest point of 58.92 points on October 29th, 2014. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to present)

2、 Market analysis

This week, the price of bromine remained stable with an upward trend, and the mainstream market price in Shandong region is currently around 21000-23000 yuan/ton. In terms of supply, various bromine manufacturers are currently operating normally with low inventory. The supply of imported bromine is average, which is beneficial for domestic bromine manufacturers and has led to an increase in bromine prices. The production of downstream flame retardants for bromine is average, the industry is operating weakly and steadily, and the demand for agriculture and intermediates is average. In terms of raw materials, domestic sulfur prices have risen, with an average market price of 1076.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 1083.33 yuan/ton at the end of the week, an increase of 0.62% and a 30% increase compared to the same period last year. Downstream procurement is mainly based on demand.

It is predicted that the price of bromine will rise in the near future, with upstream sulfur prices consolidating, downstream flame retardants of bromine operating generally, and the industry operating weakly and steadily. The demand for agriculture and intermediates is average, and the comprehensive supply-demand game predicts that bromine may continue to consolidate and operate in the future, depending on downstream market demand.

1、 Price trend

According to monitoring data from the bulk list of Business Society, the overall price of bromine rose in May. At the beginning of the month, the average market price of bromine was 19600 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, the average market price of bromine was 22300 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 13.78% and a year-on-year increase of 4.21%. On May 30th, the bromine commodity index was 77.54, an increase of 0.7 points from yesterday, a decrease of 68.37% from the highest point in the cycle of 245.18 points (2021-10-27), and an increase of 31.60% from the lowest point of 58.92 points on October 29th, 2014. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to present)

2、 Market analysis

The overall price of bromine has risen this month. The mainstream market price in Shandong region is currently around 21000-23000 yuan/ton. In terms of supply, various bromine manufacturers are currently operating normally with low inventory. The supply of imported bromine is average, which is beneficial for domestic bromine manufacturers and has led to an increase in bromine prices. But the import window period for bromine is about to end. The downstream flame retardant and intermediate industries have been mainly purchasing on demand recently, with average demand.

Regarding sulfur: In May, sulfur prices overall declined. At the beginning of the month, the average market price was 1183.33 yuan/ton, while at the end of the month, the average market price was 1050 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11.27% and a year-on-year increase of 30.21%. The trading atmosphere in the sulfur market is average, with sulfur enterprises actively shipping and downstream manufacturers mainly purchasing according to demand.

Business Society analysts believe that the price of bromine has recently risen this month. The import window period of bromine is favorable for the bromine market. But the import window period is coming to an end. Bromine manufacturers are producing normally, with general support from downstream flame retardants and intermediates industries. The market is mainly cautious in procurement, and the comprehensive supply-demand game predicts that the short-term price of bromine may consolidate the operating market, depending on downstream market demand.

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the mainstream market price of tetrahydrofuran in China slightly declined in May. At the end of the month, the price of tetrahydrofuran remained at 13166.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.23% from the initial price of 13333.33 yuan/ton, and a year-on-year increase of 1.84%.

Supply side: In May, the prices of mainstream domestic tetrahydrofuran distributors slightly decreased, with average inventory levels. The market price of Nantong Zhonghe tetrahydrofuran is 13000 yuan/ton; The market price of Jinan Jinhao tetrahydrofuran is 14000 yuan/ton; The market price of Nanjing Runsheng tetrahydrofuran at the end of the month is 12500 yuan/ton, with lower dealer quotes and average on-site sales.

Cost side: In May, the market price trend of maleic anhydride increased. Currently, the spot supply of maleic anhydride has decreased, factories have limited shipments, and the market circulation of goods is limited. Prices continue to rise, and the market trend is upward. As of the end of the month, the ex factory price of solid anhydride in Shandong is about 7100 yuan/ton, and the ex factory price of liquid anhydride is about 6700 yuan/ton. The domestic market price of 1,4-butanediol has declined, with rigid demand contracts trading and light spot trading. The price of 1,4-butanediol has dropped from 9071.43 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 9028.57 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 0.47%. The domestic BDO market is weak and downward, with light spot trading; The pressure on on-site inventory is still present and entering a new cycle, causing pressure on holding manufacturers to ship goods. Negotiations for discounts on actual orders have led to a weak market focus and a downward trend. The upstream raw material market prices have fallen, with insufficient cost support. Due to the impact of supply and demand, the price of tetrahydrofuran has been negatively affected, resulting in a slight decrease in tetrahydrofuran prices.

On the demand side: In May, the price trend of spandex in the market declined. At the end of the month, the price of spandex was 28875 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.35% from the initial price of 29875 yuan/ton. In recent years, the concentration of the domestic spandex industry has been continuously increasing, and the industry’s leading effect has been obvious. The expansion of production capacity has significantly overlapped with the average performance of downstream terminal textile demand in recent years. The downstream spandex market is weak and declining, and downstream customers are less actively purchasing tetrahydrofuran, resulting in a slight decline in the tetrahydrofuran market.

Looking at the future: In the short term, the BDO market is weak and the cost support is insufficient. The downstream spandex market has slightly declined, and downstream demand has weakened. Business Society’s tetrahydrofuran analyst believes that the short-term domestic tetrahydrofuran market is not supported by favorable conditions, and it is expected that there is still room for a downward trend in the future.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, in the first half of May, prices of pure polyester yarn and polyester cotton yarn fluctuated and fell due to the continuous decline in raw material prices and downstream wait-and-see attitudes. In the second half of the month, raw material prices rebounded and stabilized. As of May 31st, the average price of pure polyester yarn in the Shandong region was 12325 yuan/ton, which is the same as the price at the beginning of the month; The average market price of polyester cotton yarn is 17300 yuan/ton, which is the same as the price at the beginning of the month.

Market Review: Since early May, orders from spinning factories, except for sewing threads, have generally decreased. Especially in the first half of the month, due to the decline in prices of cotton and polyester staple fibers, in order to ensure orders, the prices of pure polyester yarn and polyester cotton yarn were lowered by 100-300 yuan/ton. In the second half of the month, with the rebound of cotton and polyester staple fiber prices, the prices of pure polyester yarn and polyester cotton yarn tend to stabilize. Factories mainly focus on fulfilling orders, rather than following the rebound of rising raw material prices. A small amount of inventory with large varieties will be reduced in price promotions to recover funds. Therefore, in the second half of May, the overall inventory of pure polyester yarn and polyester cotton yarn will not increase but decrease. Cotton mills generally hold a pessimistic attitude towards future expectations, mainly focusing on controlling inventory, which led to an expansion of cash flow deficit in the second half of May.

Cost wise: In May, the mainstream market price of domestic polyester staple fibers showed a trend of first falling and then rising. As of May 30th, the average price of 1.4D * 38mm staple fiber factories was 7682 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.39% compared to the beginning of the month.

The cotton market has been greatly affected by the US cotton market, with an overall trend converging. In the first half of the month, the decline was around 3%. Afterwards, the US cotton market rebounded from a low level, and under the influence of sentiment, the domestic market slightly rebounded. However, under the sluggish demand, there was greater upward pressure, and at the end of the month, the US cotton market fell sharply again, with external drag leading to an overall decline in the market.

Supply and demand side: As of May 31, the comprehensive operating rate of chemical fiber weaving in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 69.51%, which is -1.20% higher than the operating rate since May Day. The overall order volume in the warp knitting market is weak, with a clear gap in new orders, and factories still mainly rely on orders received in the early stage and production inventory. The expectation for new orders is insufficient, and there is an increase in rotation within the factory. The off-season in the industry is becoming more apparent, and end customers mainly place orders on demand. The atmosphere of subsequent orders for knitted fabrics in the circular machine factory has not improved, and the pressure on raw fabric inventory is gradually increasing. The shipment rate of large fabric stores is not high, and some factories have started to take turns on holidays. On site production is stable, but weak. The delivery of four-sided elastic workwear fabrics on water jet looms is still acceptable, but the market lacks new hot selling fabrics to boost sales, resulting in a significant slowdown in the delivery speed of raw fabrics. Looking ahead to next month, the off-season atmosphere is strengthening, and the trend of weaving production weakening may increase.

Recently, the number of orders from weaving manufacturers has fluctuated downward and is about to enter June. The off-season is still expected to have another downward trend, with weak new orders for domestic and foreign trade. Weaving and printing and dyeing manufacturers have increased their rotating weekends, and the operating load has fluctuated and decreased. The trading atmosphere in the textile market is weak.

From the perspective of the textile industry, the export of textiles and clothing did not meet expectations, and there was no large-scale rebound in foreign trade demand. The export amount decreased year-on-year. According to data from the General Administration of Customs, China’s textile and clothing exports in April amounted to 23.934 billion US dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 3.12%. Among them, the export value of textiles (including textile yarns, fabrics and products) was 12.19 billion US dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 2.36%; The export value of clothing (including clothing and clothing accessories) was 11.744 billion US dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 3.90%.

It is expected that domestic demand will further weaken in June, and shipping costs will continue to rise in May. According to statistics, orders for polyester staple fibers and yarn factories have been affected to some extent. If the future shipping costs remain high, the sales pressure of pure polyester yarn and polyester cotton yarn will further increase.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the overall price of domestic sodium metabisulfite remained stable in May 2024. The average price of industrial grade sodium metabisulfite was 2166.67 yuan/ton on May 1 and 2166.67 yuan/ton on May 31, indicating overall stability.

Supported by a slight rebound in domestic soda ash prices in late April, some enterprises slightly increased the factory price of sodium metabisulfite in May, driving a slight rebound in the domestic market price of sodium metabisulfite at the beginning of the month. With the fluctuation and stabilization of raw material prices, the overall supply and demand of sodium metabisulfite market have remained stable, and the market price of sodium metabisulfite has remained stable throughout the month.

In May, there were overall fluctuations in the upstream raw material prices of sodium metabisulfite, with a slight increase in the price of soda ash, which rose 6.9% within the month. Sulfur prices fluctuated downward, falling 10.7% within the month. The overall raw material prices fluctuated forward, and a slight increase in the price of soda ash will provide some support for the future price of sodium metabisulfite.

Future Market Forecast

Analysts from Business Society believe that the price of soda ash is fluctuating upwards, and downstream demand for sodium metabisulfite is stable. With support from costs and demand, it is expected that there will still be some upward space for the domestic market price of sodium metabisulfite in June.

This month, the domestic industrial grade calcium formate market price fluctuated and declined. As of May 30th, the benchmark price of 98% industrial grade calcium formate in Shengyishe was 3390.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of -10.97% compared to the beginning of this month (3807.50 yuan/ton).

Market analysis:

This month, the supply of industrial grade calcium formate in the market is stable and sufficient, with an increase in inventory and a bearish supply side. Downstream demand is weak, and buying has followed up around rigid demand. Mainstream manufacturers have lowered prices, and the market mentality is not good. The price center of the industrial grade calcium formate market continues to decline.

Supply side:

In May, the market price of industrial grade 85% formic acid in China fell. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of May 28th, the average price quoted by formic acid companies was 2937.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10.65% compared to the price on May 1st (formic acid reference price of 3287.50 yuan/ton). From the monitoring chart of Business Society data, it can be seen that the industrial grade 85% formic acid market experienced an overall decline in May. In the first half of the month, the price of raw material methanol in the market rose and cost support increased, but demand support was weak. Downstream buying was flat, and inquiries and purchases were mainly in demand. Manufacturers accumulated inventory to promote transactions, and the focus of negotiations in the formic acid market declined. In the second half of the month, the raw material methanol market surged and fell, and cost support weakened from strong to weak. The supply side has sufficient supply of goods, but the demand follow-up is limited, resulting in a bearish supply and demand side. Enterprises are actively selling at a profit margin, and the formic acid market has stabilized after a decline.

On the demand side:

The market size of industrial grade calcium formate is mainly driven by downstream application areas such as cement and tile additives, flue gas desulfurizers, and feed additives. And the progress of the construction site. From January to April, the national real estate development investment was 3092.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9.8% (calculated according to comparable standards); Among them, residential investment was 2339.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 10.5%. From January to April, the sales area of newly-built commercial housing was 292.52 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 20.2%, with residential sales area decreasing by 23.8%. The sales revenue of newly-built commercial housing reached 2806.7 billion yuan, a decrease of 28.3%, including a 31.1% decrease in residential sales. Recently, the significant relaxation of real estate policies is conducive to industry recovery, and demand for cement is expected to increase. On June 1st, the new national standard for cement was implemented, and the production cost of cement will further increase. Currently, the cement market has hit a bottom, and enterprises have strong upward demand.

Overall:

Recently, the domestic industrial grade 98% calcium formate market price has been affected by various factors, showing downward pressure. The market price fluctuations of upstream raw material formic acid and changes in downstream market demand are the main reasons. The decline in formic acid prices has led to a decrease in the production cost of calcium formate and an increase in market supply. Meanwhile, the lagging recovery of demand for calcium formate in downstream industries has further affected the market price trend. It is predicted that in the future, the market price of industrial grade 98% calcium formate may continue to decline, showing a weak and stable state.